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(Daily Mail)   'Up to' 760 people have 'perished' in the six-day UK heatwave. It's the Daily Mail... with a masterclass in pseudoscience, misrepresentation, and nonsensical quotes. Photos of pretty girls in bikinis though, so... there's that   (dailymail.co.uk) divider line 150
    More: Silly, master classes, systems thinking, Tropical Medicine, extreme temperatures, Nick Clegg, shepherds, Shropshire  
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11461 clicks; posted to Main » on 18 Jul 2013 at 10:53 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-07-18 12:20:23 PM

Inigo: abhorrent1: 86 is a heat wave and people die from it? WTF is wrong with you, England?

Old people, no AC and poorly insulated houses.


Really?  When I was growing up in SC, it was the norm to see old folks sitting on the porch, drinking liquids and keeping a wet towel with them on 100f/38c summer days.  We spent the day yesterday over at my sister's playing outside with the kids.  It was 36c, but then we were smart to play water games and were in the shade.
 
2013-07-18 12:23:11 PM

TheShavingofOccam123: I hear people in Toronto strain their eyes staring at the CN tower...


If that was Montreal, the top would be semi-transparent and the long pants would be shorts that could easily be misconstrued as a wide belt
 
2013-07-18 12:23:29 PM

Bontesla: ZzeusS: Yes..  Well the BBC articles give more information.

They don't use air conditioning, only heating registers.  

So surprise heat that can't escape is surprising.

Plus, they have Green initiatives in low income housing that packs a lot of insulation, so that the heat stays in.  Large buildings full of people with no AC, at all, and heat can't escape due to the way it's built.

So.. ovens.

TMYK

This was a fantastic summary.

I'd like to note one more thing: long lasting heatwaves were so uncommon - there was no need to start marketing expensive air conditioning units.

However, the climate is changing. I read a fantastic article about the increased number of vineyards because the summers average hotter temperatures now. Some wine producers are moving their production facilities from the southern France because that temperature has been averaging temperatures that are far too warm to support vineyards.

So, right now it's cost prohibitive to really install air conditioning on a massive scale throughout the UK. But if this warming trend continues - they're going to have to start considering their options.


They have water and fans don't they?
 
2013-07-18 12:25:09 PM
Things I leaned from building computers. I son't know why they always rate CPU temps in Celsius, so I had to learn conversion: (Celcius * 9/5) + 32.
 
2013-07-18 12:27:26 PM

CPT Ethanolic: Pussies.  Here's the thermometer in our barracks window out here in Kandahar today.  In the shade:

[img10.imageshack.us image 800x600]


Thats not hot for Kandahar. I saw 58C on a day that was noticable warmer than others.
 
2013-07-18 12:28:32 PM

btraz70: Is that man made? It looks man made...
[i.dailymail.co.uk image 850x761]


You know that quote about building a castle in the swap... well that's every freakin' castle in Europe. It was all swamp.

Ok, I'm exaggerating a little, but many of the "rivers", especially in England, are just large drainage and irrigation projects started a couple of thousand years ago.
 
2013-07-18 12:30:09 PM

maliklockett: Up to 760 people have lost their lives during Britain's blistering heatwave with figures set to rise, experts warn.
A heatwave death toll has been calculated by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) for The Times. Researchers used temperature data supplied by the Met Office and compared the figures with previous studies conducted on deaths during heatwaves in Britain.
They found that between 540 and 760 people will have perished in England alone during the first nine days of the heatwave and warn the figures could easily double in the coming days.


So they perform a calculation based on temperature data and and studies conducted on previous heatwaves to get the number of deaths?  Could they have gotten a more accurate figure by just COUNTING THE PEOPLE WHO DIED?


Accurate? Yes.

Newsworthy? No.
 
2013-07-18 12:32:28 PM

JimBob1015: How many people usually die in the UK over a 6 day period? 760 seems low.


Rough figure is 2000 deaths per day in the UK, so the heatwave has saved ~1850 lives per day on average. 

/I think technically it is higher in winter and lower in summer normally anyway, but I don't know by how much, probably only +/-10% at most I would guess
 
2013-07-18 12:35:22 PM

PrivateCaboose: It is 95 here and "feels like" 103. My sympathy for Britain is nonexistent.


Samesies. And my beach is closed down due to babe Ruths in the water or something.
 
2013-07-18 12:41:20 PM

drb9: They are carrying surf boards where there is no surf.


They're English. They carry surf boards to protect them from the Sun when they lie on the beach. This habit comes in handy at tea time. While George naps, the family lays out the tea or a buffet on him. The Scots don't lie on beaches* so if you see a Scot with a surf board, head for higher ground. He's getting his money's worth out of the damn thing, so half of Norway may have fallen into the North Sea.

*They lie under beaches. Don't kick at floppy hats you find on a beach. It probably has a Scotsman's head in it. A bright scarlet, very, very angry Scottish head. Being buried in the sand is not just a fun thing to do at the beach--it's protective cover. This is why Scots Regiments are experts in camouflage. That and the fact that half the regiment are former ghillies or worshippers of the pagan Green Man.

Brantgoose. Spreading lies about the acceptable targets of racism since, um, 1987. Yeah, that's the ticket. 1987. 1997.
 
2013-07-18 12:41:49 PM

xria: JimBob1015: How many people usually die in the UK over a 6 day period? 760 seems low.

Rough figure is 2000 deaths per day in the UK, so the heatwave has saved ~1850 lives per day on average. 

/I think technically it is higher in winter and lower in summer normally anyway, but I don't know by how much, probably only +/-10% at most I would guess


il be honest, i skim read the article just to establish the complete lack of actual, you know... facts.

I think the 760 is actually extrapolated from other heatwaves! the content has changed from earlier though I think, the best/worst, ridiculous quotes (like 'we're really worried' gee thanks, illuminating) are gone
 
2013-07-18 12:42:20 PM
38 C in Boston, MA, today.

/totally getting a kick, etc
 
2013-07-18 12:44:31 PM

oldfarthenry: [i.dailymail.co.uk image 643x375]
♫ ♫ ♫ ♫ ♫ ♫
Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun
♫ ♫ ♫ ♫ ♫ ♫
(look at the socks on that naff twat)


My socks look like that, expect they're black and red.

:(
 
2013-07-18 12:45:12 PM
CPT Ethanolic : Thank you for serving your country, I support our troops. Wish I could send you an ice cold beverage of your choice. So instead, Hugs, and thank you again.
 
2013-07-18 12:49:01 PM
Meh, lightweights. Here in Texas it's already gotten up over 100°F (that's 30°C for you limeys) for a few days this year.

Stop complaining and enjoy the bikinis.
 
2013-07-18 12:50:00 PM

loki see loki do: [i.dailymail.co.uk image 850x540]

Does the 'chick' on the left look a little too much like Tom Cruise in a blond wig?



i39.tinypic.com
 
2013-07-18 12:51:16 PM

SpdrJay: Don't these people have bathtubs of water they can cool off in rather than dying from heat? I don't get it.


For a country which makes fun of the French for not bathing, England has surprisingly few bath tubs. I read that one in ten residences in London had no bath or shower (this is very past-best-use-date information, but I doubt it has changed much, given the price of real estate and the number of people living in closets and chambres de bonne (maid's rooms), which is French for a closet converted to an apartment (too small to be a proper bed sit because there's only room for a cot, no other place to sit).

Many of the poorer residents of the British Isles still share a bathroom with other tenants or boarders or room-mates, which means there isn't room enough in the tub or shower for all of the occupants.

Although the British were the first nation with modern indoor plumbing (to a given value of "modern" and "indoor" and the first to bathe every day rather than once a week (which is adequate if you lead a sedentary life and never sweat or work) a large percentage of the population never had access to the facilities for a leisurely soak in the tub as this was a luxury and only rich and upper middle class people deserve luxuries.
 
2013-07-18 12:52:49 PM

skinink: Things I leaned from building computers. I son't know why they always rate CPU temps in Celsius, so I had to learn conversion: (Celcius * 9/5) + 32.


It`s because Celsius is the same scale as Kelvin, which is how grown ups measure temperature. I`m glad you didn't attempt to spell Fahrenheit...

You know there is a `preview` button next to `add comment`?
 
2013-07-18 01:03:13 PM
The Daily Mail is just demonstrating how adding pics of pretty women in bikinis can improve any article.

It's journalistic bacon.
 
2013-07-18 01:03:40 PM
If you are used to a mild climate (which in England is something like 65F or 18C, indoors and out), a hot humid day is a killer.

Most of the victims are elderly, infants, or people with medical conditions such as asthma, COPD, lung disease, heart disease, etc.

Remember that when it 86F, it might be 105F in a car, train, or slum tenement. The English haven't yet reached Texas levels of air-conditioning, their homes are very poorly insulated, even if modern because there's no incentive for builders to shell out for insulation when people aren't going to pay a penny more for a well-insulated house, and the British are queer about weather.

The Myth of the Bracing Climate means that the British will 1) sleep with a window open even in the coldest depths of Winter; 2) go out in a t-shirt, shorts and sandels to shovel the snow; 3) over-dress on the warmest days and underdress on the coldest; and 4) generally be in denial about how awful the weather really is.
 
2013-07-18 01:04:34 PM

Veramar: chevydeuce: I still have trouble understanding how or why people are dying because of 85 degree weather....

It's because it's unusual here in Britain. 70 degrees is hot for over here - we're more used to wind and rain. Elderly people don't drink enough fluids in this weather and idiotic teenagers jump into rivers and lakes then drown because the water's cold and it shocks their body into shutting down.


Yeah, but every time I read this article I wonder why you guys don't just go down to Wal*Mart, because  I know you have one, every single nation has one, and buy some shorts and T-shirts for yourselves. Hell, mid-80s is great weather when you dress appropriately.

/And maybe keep windows open at night if you didn't think to get ACs? That's my version of an AC out here in Nevada, and it works pretty well.
 
2013-07-18 01:05:17 PM

Banned on the Run: The Daily Mail is just demonstrating how adding pics of pretty women in bikinis can improve any article.

It's journalistic bacon.


Similarly, adding bikini pics to this thread will improve it as well.

i216.photobucket.com
 
2013-07-18 01:06:34 PM
i216.photobucket.com
 
2013-07-18 01:07:17 PM
i216.photobucket.com
 
2013-07-18 01:07:50 PM

Lady J: CPT Ethanolic: Pussies.  Here's the thermometer in our barracks window out here in Kandahar today.  In the shade:

not everything in life is a competition, cupcake


Dear CPT E.  Please disregard. Lady (sand in the va-jay) J.
Thank you for serving, hope you come home soon.
Also, wish I could send you a case of PopSicles or something
 
2013-07-18 01:07:59 PM
i216.photobucket.com
 
2013-07-18 01:09:01 PM
i216.photobucket.com
 
2013-07-18 01:09:50 PM
i216.photobucket.com
 
2013-07-18 01:10:55 PM
i216.photobucket.com
 
2013-07-18 01:12:53 PM
i216.photobucket.com

/Much better
 
2013-07-18 01:14:32 PM

brantgoose: Remember that when it 86F, it might be 105F in a car, train, or slum tenement.


So you open up two windows to create a cross breeze, and buy a fan. It's 86 degrees, FFS. Geez.
 
2013-07-18 01:19:53 PM
Subby, among many others, does not seem to understand how statistics work.

We know that people are more likely to die when it is very hot, especially if it is hot and humid. The length of the hot spell matters--the vulnerable can survive a short spike, but not a lingering spike in temperature and humidity. Many elderly people live alone and have no one to care for them and no one to look in on them. They may not notice the heat or may lie down and never get up because they can't. They also can't afford to go somewhere cool (like a movie theatre or a mall) unless somebody helps out.

Thus, you get a lot of unnecessary deaths unless the city or volunteers or neighbours take responsibility for setting up programmes which gets these people out of their homes for at least two or three hours a day.

We also know that hospitalizations increase dramatically during a heat wave.

Statistics allows us to prise out the numbers of extra deaths you get from a rise in temperature, humidity, cold snaps, and what not.

For example, you don't need to study just heat waves. You can take a day and look at temperature and death records for as long as the records are available. Actuaries do this when the figure out mortality and risk. Epidemiologists and doctors do similar statistic studies and massage data out of population studies involving thousands, possibly millions of records.

It works. Of course, you get probabilities and not hard numbers on who died of what, but it works well enough for planning purposes.

These figures cover a range of about 200 deaths a day, which is the uncertainty. It's considerable, but there isn't an order of magnitude involved. From 500 to 700 deaths attributable to the heat wave is good enough for hospitals, governments, weathermen, and others who advise the public on health  and safety, as well as people who take their own precautions.

Some of the math is very simple (you can simply draw a graph of the number of deaths on a given day of the year, against the temperature and humidity on each of the days) and some of the math is very sophisticated and thus done by computers or mathematicians with years of post-graduate education.

But it is not to be scoffed at. It needs to be understood, however, which journalists and the general public do not do very well. Look for qualifications and don't drop them. If you read only headlines you will become a cynic who believes that every thing is bumpf. If you read the article from the bottom up, you will get the qualifications before you get the positive statements, which prepares you to understand what the scientist or experts really said, and what the journalists really said, without the spin that is added by headline writers.

Dammit, man! We're Farkers. We write headlines for sport. We should be aware what BS headlines are! We write them!
 
2013-07-18 01:23:47 PM
Banned on the Run:

Thank you :D

I've lived in the southwest too long, anything over 85F & 80% humidity turns me into a puddle of goo. Give me 95F & 5% humidity & I'm happy.
 
2013-07-18 01:24:24 PM

Banned on the Run:


Bookmark. Fine work as always.
 
2013-07-18 01:29:11 PM

oldfarthenry: [i.dailymail.co.uk image 643x375]
♫ ♫ ♫ ♫ ♫ ♫
Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun
♫ ♫ ♫ ♫ ♫ ♫
(look at the socks on that naff twat)


I learned this as a student. Upper class and upper middle class British men dress very conservatively (note the quality of the suit and the fit) but allow themselves a bright tie and sometimes stockings (more class-insecure middleclass suits will wear standard-issue black or at the limit some shiatty colour of blue, brown or grey). Green or burgundy (claret)  is the limit.

It's a guess as I don't remember the colours of Lords, but I would hazard with some confidence that this man is a member of Lords Cricket Club. If not, he is wearing the colours of his regiment or school or some other club. If he is a snob he may be wearing false colours or the colours of one group that looks like the colours of another (sly) thus allowing other people to assume his status is higher than it really is without bare-faced lying. But odds are good that he is either a Gentleman (high class amateur) or a Player (professional). Who else gives a flying fark about cricket at Lords?
 
2013-07-18 01:32:54 PM

brantgoose: drb9: They are carrying surf boards where there is no surf.

They're English. They carry surf boards to protect them from the Sun when they lie on the beach. This habit comes in handy at tea time. While George naps, the family lays out the tea or a buffet on him. The Scots don't lie on beaches* so if you see a Scot with a surf board, head for higher ground. He's getting his money's worth out of the damn thing, so half of Norway may have fallen into the North Sea.

*They lie under beaches. Don't kick at floppy hats you find on a beach. It probably has a Scotsman's head in it. A bright scarlet, very, very angry Scottish head. Being buried in the sand is not just a fun thing to do at the beach--it's protective cover. This is why Scots Regiments are experts in camouflage. That and the fact that half the regiment are former ghillies or worshippers of the pagan Green Man.

Brantgoose. Spreading lies about the acceptable targets of racism since, um, 1987. Yeah, that's the ticket. 1987. 1997.


Fat people are still fair game as well. It`s a lifestyle choice...
 
2013-07-18 01:34:16 PM
i.dailymail.co.uk

What's that sticking out?  A camel nose?
 
2013-07-18 01:39:01 PM

Gordon Bennett: [www.aqueous-seo.co.uk image 400x261]

Scorchio!


Why is she wearing a Guy Fawkes mask?
 
2013-07-18 01:41:33 PM

Banned on the Run: "pretty girls in bikinis...."

*scroll, scroll, scroll

Fark, I am disappoint

/back in an hour to get this on track


It was much better than the usual schlock you get when "smoking hot teacher" is mentioned.
 
2013-07-18 01:43:34 PM

brantgoose: oldfarthenry: [i.dailymail.co.uk image 643x375]
♫ ♫ ♫ ♫ ♫ ♫
Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun
♫ ♫ ♫ ♫ ♫ ♫
(look at the socks on that naff twat)

I learned this as a student. Upper class and upper middle class British men dress very conservatively (note the quality of the suit and the fit) but allow themselves a bright tie and sometimes stockings (more class-insecure middleclass suits will wear standard-issue black or at the limit some shiatty colour of blue, brown or grey). Green or burgundy (claret)  is the limit.

It's a guess as I don't remember the colours of Lords, but I would hazard with some confidence that this man is a member of Lords Cricket Club. If not, he is wearing the colours of his regiment or school or some other club. If he is a snob he may be wearing false colours or the colours of one group that looks like the colours of another (sly) thus allowing other people to assume his status is higher than it really is without bare-faced lying. But odds are good that he is either a Gentleman (high class amateur) or a Player (professional). Who else gives a flying fark about cricket at Lords?


And once you get to the real aristocracy they wear whatever the hell they like again. It`s the circle of life. Only those in the middle care what class other people think they are...
4.bp.blogspot.com
This is Alexander George Thynn, 7th Marquess of Bath, styled Viscount Weymouth between 1946 and 1992 and his tortoise.
 
2013-07-18 02:10:02 PM

onyxruby: 86 degrees and people are dying from the heat in England? I don't even make my son wear shorts unless it's 85 out and I'm from Minnesota. Minnesota, you know that place known for it's /cold/.


I know. It's something like 96 in Minneapolis with a dew point above 70. I see plenty of posts stating that UK homes are built to hold in heat, but I'd love to see the average Londoner walking through Uptown in a typical Minnesota January. We've got some weather round these parts.
 
2013-07-18 02:43:24 PM
I'm going to come off as cold, but if you are so frigin stupid that you die because of heat or freezing to death in this day in age there is nothing the rest of us can do to help you.
 
2013-07-18 02:56:06 PM
I'm not going to pull the whole "suck it up, it's 100 where I am," but I'm going to ask a serious question...

If the human body can survive in 120 degree (F) heat without too many issues (as long as you hydrate) and heat really only starts to affect children, the elderly, and the infirmed at, say, 95-100...how is 80 considered "killer" temperatures?
If the temperature in Nome, AK skyrockets to a scorching 70 degrees, I doubt we'll see people keeling over from heat exhaustion. How is 80 degrees (which is on the upper end of "mild temperatures) considered apocalyptic?
 
2013-07-18 05:01:51 PM
Gor, the Sun 'ave got the bigger bristols, dunnit?
 
2013-07-18 05:16:42 PM
I've said it before, and I'll say it again, Fark threads need a [Hot] votey button, for exactly this kind of thread.
 
2013-07-18 05:30:13 PM

TheShavingofOccam123: Maud Dib: oldfarthenry: Anyone else finding the babble from the Yanks kinda amusing?
YOU GIVE STORMS NAMES THEN HYPE THE HELL OUT OF THEM ON THE NEWS, FOR CHRIST SAKE!

`Rainstorm Bertha is on her way! Have you stocked up on milk, Wonder bread & tampons, yet? HURRY!'

Hey, at least we know how to set the parking brake on our trains.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiWEVns7niY

Buster Keaton was a mean Canadian train stopper.  Just watch the first 30 seconds or so.

That's from the film The Trainrodder that Keaton made in Canada.


The Railrodder is excellent. Hopefully, you're not-geolocked, because here it is on the NFB site -  http://www.nfb.ca/film/railrodder
 
2013-07-18 06:08:28 PM

CPT Ethanolic: Pussies.  Here's the thermometer in our barracks window out here in Kandahar today.  In the shade:


Is it dry there? Because I've hiked in desert mountains for hours at around 115 in dry heat. Ninety in Michigan with humidity is worse.
 
2013-07-18 06:15:40 PM
Women. My only weakness.
 
2013-07-18 10:36:09 PM

loki see loki do: [i.dailymail.co.uk image 850x540]

Does the 'chick' on the left look a little too much like Tom Cruise in a blond wig?


I was wondering why the cute girl's boyfriend was in a bikini.
 
2013-07-19 04:03:52 AM
Here in Texas, we had a wet, balmy week with rain nearly every day and Monday's temperature never rising above the 70s, which is unusual for July.  But last week we were in the 100s and the normal summer heat is returning.  Can't wait for the temperatures to return to the upper 90s.
 
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