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(Slate)   Problem: Multiple polls show you trailing in your race to become governor. Solution: Invent a fictitious poll that shows you leading in order to prove that you can't trust polls   (slate.com) divider line 28
    More: Dumbass, Terry McAuliffe, Cuccinelli, E.W. Jackson, Public Policy Polling, governors  
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4204 clicks; posted to Politics » on 17 Jul 2013 at 1:50 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



Voting Results (Smartest)
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest

2013-07-17 02:07:27 AM  
8 votes:

MaudlinMutantMollusk: /Pathetic bastards can't win on their ideas because they have none


OK, in all fairness, in both parties there are people with a real interest in serving the public, with coherent and thought-out ideas that, even if you don't agree with them philosophically, at least have some grounding in real issues of meaningful practical priority and goals that are ultimately sympathetic to most people.

In each party there are also a bunch of goddamned morons.

The difference between the GOP and the Dems is less the presence or absence of one or the other group as which group is usually ultimately in charge.  The Dems usually have a layer of idiots backed by a group of competent people pulling the strings.  The GOP's more like a layer of idiots with a few competent people that used to pull the strings holding on for dear life like a man riding a mechanical bull over a spike-filled pit, that's also on fire.

All the ideas in the world won't help you if you can't manage your base, or bargained for more populist power than you can actually control.  You know there's like twenty guys somewhere up the GOP hierarchy that genuinely want to reasonably reduce the influence of the federal government in a responsible fashion that leads to a balanced budget without screwing anyone, and their mental soundtrack for the last decade has just been an uninterrupted litany of profanity.
2013-07-16 10:34:50 PM  
5 votes:
Math Republicans do to make themselves feel better.
2013-07-17 07:40:37 AM  
3 votes:
According to the latest RRR Poll, Ken Cuccinelli leads his opponent Terry McAuliffe by 13.3 points, up from 12 points from RRR's inaugural Poll released May 30th... There is no margin of error, since RRR only produces error free surveys - and unlike PPP or DDD - we poll those actually voting (as we think that's important).
 Uuuum, the only way to produce an error-free poll is to ensure the following conditions are met:


1.  You ask exactly everyone who will vote on election day; no fewer, no more,
2. They don't lie or change their minds before they cast their ballot
3. There is 100% data integrity in collection

Anything less and you're completely full of shiat.
2013-07-17 09:10:16 AM  
2 votes:

Arkanaut: Makes perfect sense to me. It seems to be a two-step process:
1) Find out what liberals are saying
2) Say the opposite


I do find it troublesome how every and all positions on any issue that are contrary to the FOX position are now deemed the "libbiest lib that libbed".

I known I've seen sociological studies that showed that people in groups will start trying to outdo each other to show their value.  In the case of politics, we see this in the far right shift our country has taken since a black man was elected President Obama started destroying everything American.

At what point does the deliberate spreading of misinformation for political purposes and financial wealth cease to be "1st Amendment Rights" and become equivalent to shouting "fire" in a movie theater?
2013-07-17 07:50:03 AM  
2 votes:

doyner: Uuuum, the only way to produce an error-free poll is to ensure the following conditions are met:

1.  You ask exactly everyone who will vote on election day; no fewer, no more,
2. They don't lie or change their minds before they cast their ballot
3. There is 100% data integrity in collection

Anything less and you're completely full of shiat.


Posts like this are why I will always advocate some sort of basic statistics course taught at some grade level before children are allowed to drop out of school.  The fact that you don't even seem to realize that you've just typed the stats equivalent of "you can't say with 100% certainty that the world isn't flat without personally walking all the way around it, and even then what if you just went in a circle?" makes my inner educator curl up and cry softly in the corner of a mental dark room, all hope for the future of humanity finally lost forever.

//Seriously, no one should be allowed out of middle school without a functional understanding of what a representative sample is.  It's up there with knowing what natural selection means and where babies come from.
2013-07-17 02:46:38 AM  
2 votes:
This is pretty consistent with Republican logic. Tell everyone that government can't do anything right, get elected, proceed to sabotage government and do a terrible job, repeat.
2013-07-17 02:39:51 AM  
2 votes:

HighOnCraic: Hey, they could always simply become even more extremely conservative and jettison the RINOs.  What could possibly go wrong?


Well, the problem for the people considering leaving is that politics is a game of connections, and ditching your party can mean starting from scratch and having the same chance of failure as a newcomer.

So RINOs aren't really ditching the party so much as new blood with some intellectual heft is looking at the party and deciding that the environment's not conducive to a career, and going with the democrats instead where they have any choice at all (they don't always).

All this sort of adds up to why the GOP is dying the slow death of a thousand cuts and hanging on long enough to fark a lot of shiat up in its death spasms instead of just becoming a ghost town overnight as it likely would if members could just say "fark it" and switch like voters can.
2013-07-17 11:36:03 AM  
1 votes:

Alphax: taoistlumberjak: Alphax: taoistlumberjak: I'm okay with knowing that guy isn't GOV of a state in this country.

Currently an Attorney General.. that's not usually a job that you want to give to an untrustworthy person.

And yet, here we are.

IIRC, one of his acts in office was to order the state colleges to remove their restrictions that ban discrimination against gay people.


Yep, and my college SGA drafted a big fat FARK YOU letter right back at him
2013-07-17 11:15:42 AM  
1 votes:
If the liberals were smart, they'd sell "fraud insurance". If an election results in a victory contrary to the interests of the buyer, the agent agrees to properly investigate up to a certain level of confidence with an hourly rate available for additional investigations.

Then, start a polling company promising a GOP sweep.
2013-07-17 10:49:27 AM  
1 votes:

Jim_Callahan: //Seriously, no one should be allowed out of middle school without a functional understanding of what a representative sample is. It's up there with knowing what natural selection means and where babies come from.


Judging from the current Republican Party leaders, you're asking an awful lot.  They seem to be 0-3 with your criteria.
2013-07-17 10:43:18 AM  
1 votes:

Jim_Callahan: OK, in all fairness, in both parties there are people with a real interest in serving the public, with coherent and thought-out ideas that, even if you don't agree with them philosophically, at least have some grounding in real issues of meaningful practical priority and goals that are ultimately sympathetic to most people.

In each party there are also a bunch of goddamned morons.

The difference between the GOP and the Dems is less the presence or absence of one or the other group as which group is usually ultimately in charge. The Dems usually have a layer of idiots backed by a group of competent people pulling the strings. The GOP's more like a layer of idiots with a few competent people that used to pull the strings holding on for dear life like a man riding a mechanical bull over a spike-filled pit, that's also on fire.


I would agree that idiocy knows no partisan affiliation. I'm not sure I would agree on the proportion of idiots being the same in both parties, but that's a tough judgment to make on a wide scale. And I would phrase it more as an issue of marginalizing the fringe versus embracing it. The Democratic Party has made huge efforts since losing to the elder Bush in 1988 to push out the crazies, move towards the center of the political spectrum, and grow the party. The Republican Party has made huge efforts since losing to Obama in 2008 to move towards the crazies, push out the center of the political spectrum, and shrink the party.

You can see the end result of this playing out today in the immigration debate. Virtually everyone you could suggest as a big player in the GOP supports the Senate bill and wants to make sure the millions of people who think of themselves as Americans get the legal status that deems them Americans. The RNC, the last GOP president, the last GOP VP candidate, the Chamber of Commerce, Catholic and Evangelical Baptist churches, hard-right think takes...the list goes on and on. Yet everyone I know is putting money on anything resembling the Senate bill getting frozen out of the House because the fringe has been embraced by the party and dad-gum-it, they're going to listen to them.
2013-07-17 09:30:34 AM  
1 votes:

JusticeandIndependence: Huck And Molly Ziegler: A Republican in Virginia is doing something duplicitous and slimy? What, did the sun come up in the east today or something?

Headso: How did I know this was going to be a republican before I read the story  if both sides are the same?

Tomahawk513: I think it's awesome that I don't even need to check the articles anymore.  When a politician does something really dumb, we already know the political affiliation.

HotWingConspiracy: Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.

They didn't really invent a poll and try and pass it off as real.  They tried to make a joke about how they don't believe the current polling.

Rule #1. Always click the article before posting


It doesn't really matter though because in both scenarios its just more of these corrupt money grubbing theocrats trying to appeal to people who think math and science are wizardry. Hopefully they lose power before things get any worse.
2013-07-17 08:52:24 AM  
1 votes:
How did I know this was going to be a republican before I read the story  if both sides are the same?
2013-07-17 08:10:52 AM  
1 votes:

Alphax: Ilmarinen: Typical Fark. Only links to stories where it's Republicans doing this sort of thing.

You know of anyone else doing it?  No?


No. I didn't even need to hover my cursor over the link to know it was the GOP.

/thatsthejoke
2013-07-17 08:00:09 AM  
1 votes:

Jim_Callahan: doyner: Uuuum, the only way to produce an error-free poll is to ensure the following conditions are met:

1.  You ask exactly everyone who will vote on election day; no fewer, no more,
2. They don't lie or change their minds before they cast their ballot
3. There is 100% data integrity in collection

Anything less and you're completely full of shiat.

Posts like this are why I will always advocate some sort of basic statistics course taught at some grade level before children are allowed to drop out of school.  The fact that you don't even seem to realize that you've just typed the stats equivalent of "you can't say with 100% certainty that the world isn't flat without personally walking all the way around it, and even then what if you just went in a circle?" makes my inner educator curl up and cry softly in the corner of a mental dark room, all hope for the future of humanity finally lost forever.

//Seriously, no one should be allowed out of middle school without a functional understanding of what a representative sample is.  It's up there with knowing what natural selection means and where babies come from.


Oh boy, you really hit me right in the statisticals!

Even samples that indicate the world is round have a margin of error.  The line between having a margin of error (however minute) is the line between inferential and descriptive statistics.

Try using your college-level reading comprehension on my original post again.
2013-07-17 07:43:54 AM  
1 votes:

mephox: It seems like there might be a huge market for fake polling. Quick! Set up a shell company, shovel some money in and start cranking out numbers, regardless of whether they make sense or not!

/The latest polls from the WITTY* institute show that the dogs are up by infinity percent.

*Warrgharrbl Institute of Theocratic Thermal Yodeling


There might be? Fake polling is an established method of making money by convincing people you are providing an actual service to them by handing them numbers that say what they want. Remember Strategic Vision? See also Research2000 (though that was less cut-and-dry.)
2013-07-17 07:10:22 AM  
1 votes:

fusillade762: I blame the Black Panthers.


You say that in jest, but yesterday I caught a glimpse of Fox and Friends as I passed thru the galley. They were going on about the Zimmerman verdict and "just asking questions" about whether Holder was going to bring a civil rights case against him.

I am sure it is just their video short hand for race fear by talking over video of those two black panthers at the polling place, what 6 years ago?

Like I said you jest, but the whispers are just that "are you fearful of the blacks, yet?"
2013-07-17 05:30:45 AM  
1 votes:

Albino Squid: mephox: It seems like there might be a huge market for fake polling. Quick! Set up a shell company, shovel some money in and start cranking out numbers, regardless of whether they make sense or not!

/The latest polls from the WITTY* institute show that the dogs are up by infinity percent.

*Warrgharrbl Institute of Theocratic Thermal Yodeling

There is a market, and the company filling that niche was called Strategic Vision. Best I can tell from their website  http://www.strategicvision.biz/, they seem to have abandoned polling after a wee controversy in 2009, and now do straight PR.


And by "wee controversy", I assume you're referring to the wonderful series of posts by Nate Silver in which he showed that Strategic Vision's results looked an awful lot like what you'd get if somebody naive about statistics made them up out of whole cloth, and wondered aloud whether SV had ever actually conducted a poll and if so, where was the call center in question? SV blustered about libel and lawsuits for a while, then quietly slunk away...
2013-07-17 03:19:11 AM  
1 votes:

mephox: It seems like there might be a huge market for fake polling. Quick! Set up a shell company, shovel some money in and start cranking out numbers, regardless of whether they make sense or not!

/The latest polls from the WITTY* institute show that the dogs are up by infinity percent.

*Warrgharrbl Institute of Theocratic Thermal Yodeling


There is a market, and the company filling that niche was called Strategic Vision. Best I can tell from their website  http://www.strategicvision.biz/, they seem to have abandoned polling after a wee controversy in 2009, and now do straight PR.
2013-07-17 03:04:19 AM  
1 votes:
A Republican in Virginia is doing something duplicitous and slimy? What, did the sun come up in the east today or something?
2013-07-17 02:50:41 AM  
1 votes:
Guys like us, we don't pay attention to the polls. We know that polls are just a collection of statistics that reflect what people are thinking in reality. And reality has a well-known liberal bias.

www.themerrymonk.com
2013-07-17 02:31:06 AM  
1 votes:
There is no margin of error, since RRR only produces error free surveys

I wasn't aware math counted as a science, and as such am surprised that this Republican doesn't believe in it.
2013-07-17 01:55:08 AM  
1 votes:
How is Cucinelli only trailing by 4? He's batshiat insane!!
2013-07-17 01:53:15 AM  
1 votes:

MaudlinMutantMollusk: TheOmni: Math Republicans do to make themselves feel better.

Math Republicans do to make themselves feel better.

Math Republicans do to make themselves feel better.

/Pathetic bastards can't win on their ideas because they have none


I don't think that's fair. They have ideas. They're just stupid ones.
2013-07-17 01:14:12 AM  
1 votes:

TheOmni: Math Republicans do to make themselves feel better.


Math Republicans do to make themselves feel better.

Math Republicans do to make themselves feel better.


/Pathetic bastards can't win on their ideas because they have none
2013-07-17 12:14:11 AM  
1 votes:
It's fun to laugh and point, but half of our political system is intentionally detached from reality.
2013-07-16 11:03:33 PM  
1 votes:
GERRYMANDERING!

It's the new N-word.
2013-07-16 10:21:53 PM  
1 votes:
Are the Republicans going to be unskewing polls in every election from here on out?


Ha ha! There is no RRR poll-the campaign is joking that PPP is obviously biased and flawed and that by listing the Libertarian candidate in its poll (he gets 7 percent) it's skewing the results.
 
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