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(Slate)   Problem: Multiple polls show you trailing in your race to become governor. Solution: Invent a fictitious poll that shows you leading in order to prove that you can't trust polls   ( slate.com) divider line
    More: Dumbass, Terry McAuliffe, Cuccinelli, E.W. Jackson, Public Policy Polling, governors  
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4221 clicks; posted to Politics » on 17 Jul 2013 at 1:50 AM (4 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-07-17 11:32:04 AM  

DarwiOdrade: Has anyone actually read the release from Cuccinelli's website? It's pretty obvious it's a joke.


It's a really weird meta-joke that reads like it should be from a Democratic publication making fun of the whole "unskewed" bullshiat. I have no farking clue what Cooch's point is for that release. It's a joke about the very complaints the person telling the joke is making.
 
2013-07-17 11:33:37 AM  

snowshovel: The problems the Republicans are facing isn't polling issues, but image issues. While their platform is sound, they are at a loss as to how to control the runaway media from putting them in a bad light.

Keep kicking when they are down, I suppose. I remember when the media went after the guys who were running show...but now it's easier just to go after the small fries who aren't in your pocket.


You sound butthurt.

/Yeah, the AG under the previous/current administration really is the "small fry."
 
2013-07-17 11:35:18 AM  

JusticeandIndependence: Huck And Molly Ziegler: A Republican in Virginia is doing something duplicitous and slimy? What, did the sun come up in the east today or something?

Headso: How did I know this was going to be a republican before I read the story  if both sides are the same?

Tomahawk513: I think it's awesome that I don't even need to check the articles anymore.  When a politician does something really dumb, we already know the political affiliation.

HotWingConspiracy: Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.

They didn't really invent a poll and try and pass it off as real.  They tried to make a joke about how they don't believe the current polling.

Rule #1. Always click the article before posting


I don't need to click to know Rule #1 was pulled from a dark stinky place.
 
2013-07-17 11:36:03 AM  

Alphax: taoistlumberjak: Alphax: taoistlumberjak: I'm okay with knowing that guy isn't GOV of a state in this country.

Currently an Attorney General.. that's not usually a job that you want to give to an untrustworthy person.

And yet, here we are.

IIRC, one of his acts in office was to order the state colleges to remove their restrictions that ban discrimination against gay people.


Yep, and my college SGA drafted a big fat FARK YOU letter right back at him
 
2013-07-17 11:44:20 AM  
Serious Black:
...
The Democratic Party has made huge efforts since losing to the elder Bush in 1988 to push out the crazies, move towards the center of the political spectrum, and grow the party. The Republican Party has made huge efforts since losing to Obama in 2008 to move towards the crazies, push out the center of the political spectrum, and shrink the party.
...

The Republican Party has been "moving toward the crazies" since Gerald Ford lost the election.  Reagan's craziness wasn't too extreme and he was charismatic enough to cover the rest, but he brought the "moral majority" (the "immoral minority" later disbanded claiming they couldn't compete with the mm's immorality and gave what was left of the budget to the ACLU).  The mm begat the "christian coalition" (see Ralph Reed to see what happened to that) which begat the tea party.

As far as any sort reason you would believe all this craziness, the high point of "conservative intellectualism" was the William Buckley and the National Review.  Think about that, they peaked while running around insisting on keeping blacks from voting and went down from there.  In aerospace, enough power will make a brick fly.  In politics, enough money will keep "conservatism" alive.
 
2013-07-17 11:44:52 AM  
Eh... I thought it was pretty clear he was trying to jokingly say that the only poll they care about is the ballot box, he just botched the delivery and over complicated it with details.

Remember - we're dealing with a conservative here, they're still working out this "humor" thing.
 
2013-07-17 11:51:12 AM  

Snarcoleptic_Hoosier: If the liberals were smart, they'd sell "fraud insurance". If an election results in a victory contrary to the interests of the buyer, the agent agrees to properly investigate up to a certain level of confidence with an hourly rate available for additional investigations.

Then, start a polling company promising a GOP sweep.


Heh, unfortunately Karl Rove stole that idea. XD
 
2013-07-17 11:57:16 AM  

Notabunny: It's fun to laugh and point, but half of our political system is intentionally detached from reality.


I'm hoping that they just complete the process - once the reality bubble is tight enough (and it may already be), Republicans can just stop running for office altogether.

All they need to do is tell everyone in the bubble that anyone claiming that there's a Democratic majority in Congress or a Democrat in the White House is a lying liberal, not to be trusted. Also, we repealed Obamacare and outlawed abortion - pay no attention to the insurance exchange websites or the abortionplex down the street, the lamestream media is just pushing the liberal narrative.

Then we can get on with our lives out here in the reality-based community.
 
2013-07-17 11:58:29 AM  

snowshovel: The problems the Republicans are facing isn't polling issues, but image issues. While their platform is sound, they are at a loss as to how to control the runaway media from putting them in a bad light.


WUT?
 
2013-07-17 11:58:57 AM  

yet_another_wumpus: Serious Black:
...
The Democratic Party has made huge efforts since losing to the elder Bush in 1988 to push out the crazies, move towards the center of the political spectrum, and grow the party. The Republican Party has made huge efforts since losing to Obama in 2008 to move towards the crazies, push out the center of the political spectrum, and shrink the party.
...
The Republican Party has been "moving toward the crazies" since Gerald Ford lost the election.  Reagan's craziness wasn't too extreme and he was charismatic enough to cover the rest, but he brought the "moral majority" (the "immoral minority" later disbanded claiming they couldn't compete with the mm's immorality and gave what was left of the budget to the ACLU).  The mm begat the "christian coalition" (see Ralph Reed to see what happened to that) which begat the tea party.


That is a truth fact. You can move the calendar back to approximately 1978. Though to be fair, the problem has exploded in the last few years.
 
2013-07-17 12:00:41 PM  

DarwiOdrade: Has anyone actually read the release from Cuccinelli's website? It's pretty obvious it's a joke.


What, and give them page views? Can't we just bicker about it here?
 
2013-07-17 12:06:42 PM  

HotWingConspiracy: Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.


Seem pretty cut and dried to me.

1) find out what voters are afraid of
2) campaign on that fear
3) get elected
4) ignore all campaign fear and do whatever the hell they want
 
2013-07-17 12:11:50 PM  
Republicans lie so you can get the point faster.
 
2013-07-17 12:13:33 PM  

Crabs_Can_Polevault: snowshovel: The problems the Republicans are facing isn't polling issues, but image issues. While their platform is sound, they are at a loss as to how to control the runaway media from putting them in a bad light.

WUT?


He's previously claimed that Obama was shutting down Rush's shows.  He's not exactly based in reality.
 
2013-07-17 12:20:17 PM  

born_yesterday: HotWingConspiracy: Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.

It will be interesting (read:  horrifying) to see how long the money can keep these assholes propped up.  They're pulling out all the tricks:  falsified polling data, gerrymandering, changes to voting laws, blatant corporate financing of campaigns.  Without these, they would be losing seats every election at the federal level.

I'm hoping it's a reversible process.  I'm hoping the people in Kansas, Texas, South Carolina, etc., wake up one day and say, "You know, we keep voting for these asshats, and things keep getting worse.  Perhaps their claims are disingenuous".  Maybe they don't need to; maybe things will get bad enough to motivate even the most apathetic "moderate" (read: lazy fark) to the polls.  I'm stretching it already; I won't go so far as to suggest people might start educating themselves to vote in their best interests.


It doesn't really work that way.  You have to look at the world the way a typical Republican voter looks at the world.  For example, if you think that abortion is murdering babies, you are never going to vote for the guy who is in favor of murdering babies.  No matter how bad the other guy is on any other issue-as long as he is against baby murdering, you are still going to vote for him.

In states and districts that are safely Republican, there are enough people who hate abortion (or gays, or blacks, or Mexicans, or gun control, or taxes, or government regulation) that the Democrat has to win basically every single mushy middle voter (or possibily them plus some of the "hates fill-in-the-blank" voters) to win, which ranges from close to impossible to literally impossible.

Now, Virginia only slightly leans red; it's not, say, Kansas, so this doesn't fully apply.
 
2013-07-17 12:26:28 PM  
LOL Republicans. Where would American society be without gerrymandering?
 
2013-07-17 12:30:20 PM  

mainstreet62: LOL Republicans. Where would American society be without gerrymandering?


About the same place the world would be without the Christian Dark Ages.
 
2013-07-17 01:13:28 PM  

snowshovel: The problems the Republicans are facing isn't polling issues, but image issues. While their platform is sound, they are at a loss as to how to control the runaway media from putting them in a bad light.


Sound?  Their platform, sound?

Their platform is malice, a desire to hurt others.
 
2013-07-17 01:31:47 PM  

born_yesterday: At what point does the deliberate spreading of misinformation for political purposes and financial wealth cease to be "1st Amendment Rights" and become equivalent to shouting "fire" in a movie theater?


Schenck was Overturned by Brandenburg v. Ohio in 1969.  So you can shout "fire" in a movie theater.
 
2013-07-17 01:43:11 PM  

doyner: According to the latest RRR Poll, Ken Cuccinelli leads his opponent Terry McAuliffe by 13.3 points, up from 12 points from RRR's inaugural Poll released May 30th... There is no margin of error, since RRR only produces error free surveys - and unlike PPP or DDD - we poll those actually voting (as we think that's important). Uuuum, the only way to produce an error-free poll is to ensure the following conditions are met:


1.  You ask exactly everyone who will vote on election day; no fewer, no more,
2. They don't lie or change their minds before they cast their ballot
3. There is 100% data integrity in collection

Anything less and you're completely full of shiat.



The next time you go to the doctor for a check-up and he orders a blood sample make sure they drain all of the blood out of you and that they test every single drop.  After all, using a representative sample can't possibly give you reliable results, right?

Plus it would have the side benefit of cleaning up the gene pool a wee bit.
 
2013-07-17 01:57:53 PM  

jonasborg: born_yesterday: At what point does the deliberate spreading of misinformation for political purposes and financial wealth cease to be "1st Amendment Rights" and become equivalent to shouting "fire" in a movie theater?

Schenck was Overturned by Brandenburg v. Ohio in 1969.  So you can shout "fire" in a movie theater.


You would be in the clear shouting "open fire".  Just "fire" has some issues, but you should get away with it as long as the theater doesn't use open gas flames for lighting the way they did when the principle was established.
 
2013-07-17 02:13:36 PM  

HotWingConspiracy: Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.


Just imagine you've hit your head so hard you have possibly lethal brain damage. That might help.
 
2013-07-17 03:19:35 PM  

John the Magnificent: doyner: According to the latest RRR Poll, Ken Cuccinelli leads his opponent Terry McAuliffe by 13.3 points, up from 12 points from RRR's inaugural Poll released May 30th... There is no margin of error, since RRR only produces error free surveys - and unlike PPP or DDD - we poll those actually voting (as we think that's important). Uuuum, the only way to produce an error-free poll is to ensure the following conditions are met:


1.  You ask exactly everyone who will vote on election day; no fewer, no more,
2. They don't lie or change their minds before they cast their ballot
3. There is 100% data integrity in collection

Anything less and you're completely full of shiat.


The next time you go to the doctor for a check-up and he orders a blood sample make sure they drain all of the blood out of you and that they test every single drop.  After all, using a representative sample can't possibly give you reliable results, right?

Plus it would have the side benefit of cleaning up the gene pool a wee bit.


Sweet Jesus you guys are missing the point.  There's error in ALL inferential statistics.  That's why we have levels of confidence.  There's no such thing as an error-free test (as in your example).  I was remarking about how if you claim a poll to be "error-free" you're full of BS.

And yes, I do have a formal education in this stuff (MS Ops Research).
 
2013-07-17 03:41:33 PM  

doyner: John the Magnificent: doyner: According to the latest RRR Poll, Ken Cuccinelli leads his opponent Terry McAuliffe by 13.3 points, up from 12 points from RRR's inaugural Poll released May 30th... There is no margin of error, since RRR only produces error free surveys - and unlike PPP or DDD - we poll those actually voting (as we think that's important). Uuuum, the only way to produce an error-free poll is to ensure the following conditions are met:


1.  You ask exactly everyone who will vote on election day; no fewer, no more,
2. They don't lie or change their minds before they cast their ballot
3. There is 100% data integrity in collection

Anything less and you're completely full of shiat.


The next time you go to the doctor for a check-up and he orders a blood sample make sure they drain all of the blood out of you and that they test every single drop.  After all, using a representative sample can't possibly give you reliable results, right?

Plus it would have the side benefit of cleaning up the gene pool a wee bit.

Sweet Jesus you guys are missing the point.  There's error in ALL inferential statistics.  That's why we have levels of confidence.  There's no such thing as an error-free test (as in your example).  I was remarking about how if you claim a poll to be "error-free" you're full of BS.

And yes, I do have a formal education in this stuff (MS Ops Research).


There's virtually no error if you can survey every member of the population though. That completely eliminates sampling, coverage, and non-response errors for sure, and if you conduct the test properly, you can almost entirely get rid of measurement error as well.

/not that this is a feasible approach of course
 
2013-07-17 05:06:06 PM  

Alphax: IIRC, one of his acts in office was to order the state colleges to remove their restrictions that ban discrimination against gay people.


I have trouble keeping track of the minus signs.

/like integration by parts
 
2013-07-17 05:51:48 PM  

Serious Black: There's virtually no error if you can survey every member of the population though.


Which is what I said at Thanksgiving and here we are again.

R.I.F.

J.H.C.
 
2013-07-17 05:53:53 PM  

doyner: Serious Black: There's virtually no error if you can survey every member of the population though.

Which is what I said at Thanksgiving and here we are again.

R.I.F.

J.H.C.


I'm going to take a wild guess that you and I were at different Thanksgiving celebrations last year...
 
2013-07-17 05:54:30 PM  

dookdookdook: IlGreven: ...he does know that PPP was one of the  most accurate polls of the 2012 elections, right?

So then you're admitting they consistently favored democrats.


...but not as much as Ipsos/Reuters...
 
2013-07-18 12:11:24 AM  

Ilmarinen: Alphax: IIRC, one of his acts in office was to order the state colleges to remove their restrictions that ban discrimination against gay people.

I have trouble keeping track of the minus signs.

/like integration by parts


I know, it felt a bit labored to type.  Simplifying.. he was ordering colleges to discriminate against gay people.
 
2013-07-18 01:11:17 AM  

Serious Black: /not that this is a feasible approach of course


If you're lazy maybe.
 
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