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(Slate)   Problem: Multiple polls show you trailing in your race to become governor. Solution: Invent a fictitious poll that shows you leading in order to prove that you can't trust polls   (slate.com) divider line 130
    More: Dumbass, Terry McAuliffe, Cuccinelli, E.W. Jackson, Public Policy Polling, governors  
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4201 clicks; posted to Politics » on 17 Jul 2013 at 1:50 AM (39 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



130 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2013-07-17 07:40:37 AM
According to the latest RRR Poll, Ken Cuccinelli leads his opponent Terry McAuliffe by 13.3 points, up from 12 points from RRR's inaugural Poll released May 30th... There is no margin of error, since RRR only produces error free surveys - and unlike PPP or DDD - we poll those actually voting (as we think that's important).
 Uuuum, the only way to produce an error-free poll is to ensure the following conditions are met:


1.  You ask exactly everyone who will vote on election day; no fewer, no more,
2. They don't lie or change their minds before they cast their ballot
3. There is 100% data integrity in collection

Anything less and you're completely full of shiat.
 
2013-07-17 07:41:56 AM

doyner: According to the latest RRR Poll, Ken Cuccinelli leads his opponent Terry McAuliffe by 13.3 points, up from 12 points from RRR's inaugural Poll released May 30th... There is no margin of error, since RRR only produces error free surveys - and unlike PPP or DDD - we poll those actually voting (as we think that's important). Uuuum, the only way to produce an error-free poll is to ensure the following conditions are met:


1.  You ask exactly everyone who will vote on election day; no fewer, no more,
2. They don't lie or change their minds before they cast their ballot
3. There is 100% data integrity in collection

Anything less and you're completely full of shiat.


Also, no such thing as an RRR poll.
 
2013-07-17 07:43:51 AM

Alphax: Also, no such thing as an RRR poll.


Sure there is; Rovian Retarded Regression.  They're right up there with Rasmussen.
 
2013-07-17 07:43:54 AM

mephox: It seems like there might be a huge market for fake polling. Quick! Set up a shell company, shovel some money in and start cranking out numbers, regardless of whether they make sense or not!

/The latest polls from the WITTY* institute show that the dogs are up by infinity percent.

*Warrgharrbl Institute of Theocratic Thermal Yodeling


There might be? Fake polling is an established method of making money by convincing people you are providing an actual service to them by handing them numbers that say what they want. Remember Strategic Vision? See also Research2000 (though that was less cut-and-dry.)
 
2013-07-17 07:45:35 AM
Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.
 
2013-07-17 07:48:17 AM

dickfreckle: keylock71: "Come with me... And you'll be... living in a world of pure imagination..."


Ought to be the GOP's theme song...

I would also have accepted "Xanadu."


Attention World!
This is the moment I have decided to become a billionaire then entrench myself into the GOP heirarchy just so I get to arrange the entertainment for a future Republican convention where I will lock the doors, Carrie style, and play the whole of  The Rocky Horror Picture Show. Just. For. The. Lulz.

Don't try and copy my insanely brilliant idea.. I've already invested heavily in tinned peaches and gold.. the rest will be a cakewalk!
 
2013-07-17 07:50:03 AM

doyner: Uuuum, the only way to produce an error-free poll is to ensure the following conditions are met:

1.  You ask exactly everyone who will vote on election day; no fewer, no more,
2. They don't lie or change their minds before they cast their ballot
3. There is 100% data integrity in collection

Anything less and you're completely full of shiat.


Posts like this are why I will always advocate some sort of basic statistics course taught at some grade level before children are allowed to drop out of school.  The fact that you don't even seem to realize that you've just typed the stats equivalent of "you can't say with 100% certainty that the world isn't flat without personally walking all the way around it, and even then what if you just went in a circle?" makes my inner educator curl up and cry softly in the corner of a mental dark room, all hope for the future of humanity finally lost forever.

//Seriously, no one should be allowed out of middle school without a functional understanding of what a representative sample is.  It's up there with knowing what natural selection means and where babies come from.
 
2013-07-17 07:52:46 AM

ComicBookGuy: How is Cucinelli only trailing by 4? He's batshiat insane!!


Not compared to EW Jackson.
 
2013-07-17 08:00:09 AM

Jim_Callahan: doyner: Uuuum, the only way to produce an error-free poll is to ensure the following conditions are met:

1.  You ask exactly everyone who will vote on election day; no fewer, no more,
2. They don't lie or change their minds before they cast their ballot
3. There is 100% data integrity in collection

Anything less and you're completely full of shiat.

Posts like this are why I will always advocate some sort of basic statistics course taught at some grade level before children are allowed to drop out of school.  The fact that you don't even seem to realize that you've just typed the stats equivalent of "you can't say with 100% certainty that the world isn't flat without personally walking all the way around it, and even then what if you just went in a circle?" makes my inner educator curl up and cry softly in the corner of a mental dark room, all hope for the future of humanity finally lost forever.

//Seriously, no one should be allowed out of middle school without a functional understanding of what a representative sample is.  It's up there with knowing what natural selection means and where babies come from.


Oh boy, you really hit me right in the statisticals!

Even samples that indicate the world is round have a margin of error.  The line between having a margin of error (however minute) is the line between inferential and descriptive statistics.

Try using your college-level reading comprehension on my original post again.
 
2013-07-17 08:00:23 AM
I think it's awesome that I don't even need to check the articles anymore.  When a politician does something really dumb, we already know the political affiliation.
 
2013-07-17 08:10:52 AM

Alphax: Ilmarinen: Typical Fark. Only links to stories where it's Republicans doing this sort of thing.

You know of anyone else doing it?  No?


No. I didn't even need to hover my cursor over the link to know it was the GOP.

/thatsthejoke
 
2013-07-17 08:14:08 AM

Mantour: [wonkette.com image 494x316]

/Oblig


My god not only does that go past 100 percent it's the most loaded question poll I have ever seen.
 
2013-07-17 08:18:10 AM
.
 
2013-07-17 08:21:03 AM
Rapmaster2000 is awesome.  There is zero margin of error.
 
2013-07-17 08:29:22 AM

Dog Welder: Mantour: [wonkette.com image 494x316]

/Oblig

Um...is that real?  I mean, I know it's Fox News and all, but...there's no way that can be real.  Can it?

/I don't want to live on this planet any more.


It is real. To be fair it was Fox at fault not Rasmussen. Basically they included people who said it was very likely in with the people who said it was somewhat likely and compared it to people who said it was very unlikely (they threw out somewhat unlikely from the graph entirely.) The result would be linguisticly deceptive had they not went full throttle and put very likely in the graphic too, which reveals the deceit. So... thanks for that I guess?
 
2013-07-17 08:44:31 AM

TheOmni: Math Republicans do to make themselves feel better.


Mathturbation
 
2013-07-17 08:49:46 AM
Rasmussen van Winkle wake up and fix your poll. The new kid pollsters are kicking your ass.
 
2013-07-17 08:52:24 AM
How did I know this was going to be a republican before I read the story  if both sides are the same?
 
2013-07-17 08:52:48 AM

HotWingConspiracy: Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.


It will be interesting (read:  horrifying) to see how long the money can keep these assholes propped up.  They're pulling out all the tricks:  falsified polling data, gerrymandering, changes to voting laws, blatant corporate financing of campaigns.  Without these, they would be losing seats every election at the federal level.

I'm hoping it's a reversible process.  I'm hoping the people in Kansas, Texas, South Carolina, etc., wake up one day and say, "You know, we keep voting for these asshats, and things keep getting worse.  Perhaps their claims are disingenuous".  Maybe they don't need to; maybe things will get bad enough to motivate even the most apathetic "moderate" (read: lazy fark) to the polls.  I'm stretching it already; I won't go so far as to suggest people might start educating themselves to vote in their best interests.
 
2013-07-17 08:57:21 AM

Headso: How did I know this was going to be a republican before I read the story  if both sides are the same?


EXACTLY the same. There is absolutely no difference between them.


Except democrats are like a BILLION times worse.
 
2013-07-17 08:58:03 AM
www.biography.com

I really thought it would work for me. Damn you Nate Silver and your real numbers.
 
2013-07-17 08:59:27 AM

falcon176: (Reality + (Reagan(America + patriotism))) * (0bummer - b..but Bush) - (the libs+the gays+abortions)  - (communism * socialism) = actual fact

suck it libs


Ah, the famed Derp Equation.


HotWingConspiracy: Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.


Makes perfect sense to me.  It seems to be a two-step process:
1) Find out what liberals are saying
2) Say the opposite
 
2013-07-17 09:07:51 AM
Traditionally there were no polls, and politicians were self-salesmen expounding on the "There's no reason to doubt we'll win!" mentality. And conservatives are full of the sort of assholes who insist on the going with the positivist message "If you think you can, you can." type bullshiat that got us into Iraq!
 
2013-07-17 09:10:16 AM

Arkanaut: Makes perfect sense to me. It seems to be a two-step process:
1) Find out what liberals are saying
2) Say the opposite


I do find it troublesome how every and all positions on any issue that are contrary to the FOX position are now deemed the "libbiest lib that libbed".

I known I've seen sociological studies that showed that people in groups will start trying to outdo each other to show their value.  In the case of politics, we see this in the far right shift our country has taken since a black man was elected President Obama started destroying everything American.

At what point does the deliberate spreading of misinformation for political purposes and financial wealth cease to be "1st Amendment Rights" and become equivalent to shouting "fire" in a movie theater?
 
2013-07-17 09:13:38 AM

Headso: How did I know this was going to be a republican before I read the story  if both sides are the same?


DUH! There was only two choices right? like flipping a coin, So you got 75% in favor of guessing the right one anyway.

/GOP math
 
2013-07-17 09:16:28 AM

Huck And Molly Ziegler: A Republican in Virginia is doing something duplicitous and slimy? What, did the sun come up in the east today or something?


Headso: How did I know this was going to be a republican before I read the story  if both sides are the same?


Tomahawk513: I think it's awesome that I don't even need to check the articles anymore.  When a politician does something really dumb, we already know the political affiliation.


HotWingConspiracy: Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.


They didn't really invent a poll and try and pass it off as real.  They tried to make a joke about how they don't believe the current polling.

Rule #1. Always click the article before posting
 
2013-07-17 09:21:03 AM

spongeboob: Are the Republicans going to be unskewing polls in every election from here on out?


Since that guarantees fail campaigns, I sure hope so.
 
2013-07-17 09:27:59 AM

born_yesterday: I known I've seen sociological studies that showed that people in groups will start trying to outdo each other to show their value.


You're right.  The Republican Party has really shown how valuable they are to the vitality of our democracy over the last few years.
 
2013-07-17 09:30:34 AM

JusticeandIndependence: Huck And Molly Ziegler: A Republican in Virginia is doing something duplicitous and slimy? What, did the sun come up in the east today or something?

Headso: How did I know this was going to be a republican before I read the story  if both sides are the same?

Tomahawk513: I think it's awesome that I don't even need to check the articles anymore.  When a politician does something really dumb, we already know the political affiliation.

HotWingConspiracy: Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.

They didn't really invent a poll and try and pass it off as real.  They tried to make a joke about how they don't believe the current polling.

Rule #1. Always click the article before posting


It doesn't really matter though because in both scenarios its just more of these corrupt money grubbing theocrats trying to appeal to people who think math and science are wizardry. Hopefully they lose power before things get any worse.
 
2013-07-17 09:33:21 AM

wildcardjack: Traditionally there were no polls, and politicians were self-salesmen expounding on the "There's no reason to doubt we'll win!" mentality. And conservatives are full of the sort of assholes who insist on the going with the positivist message "If you think you can, you can." type bullshiat that got us into Iraq!


We would have won in Iraq if it wasn't for liberals questioning it! If we all believed in it, we would have been greeted as liberators.

Reminds me of Yugioh! Abridged (paraphrased):

Tea: "If we all believe in the power of friendship with all our hearts, he'll pull through!"
*flatlines*
Tea: "...alright, which one of you motherfarkers didn't believe in the power of friendship hard enough?"
 
2013-07-17 09:33:27 AM

JusticeandIndependence: Rule #1. Always click the article before posting


It was  democrat?
 
2013-07-17 09:33:55 AM

JusticeandIndependence: They didn't really invent a poll and try and pass it off as real. They tried to make a joke about how they don't believe the current polling


yes, but do you think that their base will get the joke or believe instead that the thing is real? Remember, we are talking about Fox&Friends-watcher types here.
 
2013-07-17 09:36:33 AM

FuturePastNow: spongeboob: Are the Republicans going to be unskewing polls in every election from here on out?

Since that guarantees fail campaigns, I sure hope so.


this.

remember: a fact is true whether you believe in it or not. the more the GOP "unskews" polls, the less prepared they'll be for reality. and that's good for democrats and the nation.
 
2013-07-17 09:44:27 AM

Mrfusticle: dickfreckle: keylock71: "Come with me... And you'll be... living in a world of pure imagination..."


Ought to be the GOP's theme song...

I would also have accepted "Xanadu."

Attention World!
This is the moment I have decided to become a billionaire then entrench myself into the GOP heirarchy just so I get to arrange the entertainment for a future Republican convention where I will lock the doors, Carrie style, and play the whole of  The Rocky Horror Picture Show. Just. For. The. Lulz.

Don't try and copy my insanely brilliant idea.. I've already invested heavily in tinned peaches and gold.. the rest will be a cakewalk!


I was thinking more along the lines of an "Inglorious Bastards" ending and showing some NRA/GOP/Anti-abortion mockumentry.  But that would work to
 
2013-07-17 09:54:01 AM

Headso: JusticeandIndependence: Rule #1. Always click the article before posting

It was  democrat?


sorry quoted wrong person.  Yours didn't matter whether you clicked the story or not.

Carry on.
 
2013-07-17 10:05:44 AM
I'm farking shocked that the guy who wanted to make blowjobs illegal is losing. Seriously, if you could see my face, you would know that I am shocked.
 
2013-07-17 10:07:35 AM

thurstonxhowell: I'm farking shocked that the guy who wanted to make blowjobs illegal is losing. Seriously, if you could see my face, you would know that I am shocked.


Pretty dang much.
 
2013-07-17 10:18:38 AM

thurstonxhowell: I'm farking shocked that the guy who wanted to make blowjobs illegal is losing. Seriously, if you could see my face, you would know that I am shocked.


I'm pretty sure that's not your shocked face...
 
2013-07-17 10:26:15 AM

thurstonxhowell: I'm farking shocked that the guy who wanted to make blowjobs illegal is losing. Seriously, if you could see my face, you would know that I am shocked.



Is this somethinng like your shocked face:

i.telegraph.co.uk
 
2013-07-17 10:34:30 AM
Bwahhaahaaaaa!

Oh, republican voters. You're such idiots.
 
2013-07-17 10:35:28 AM
I really shouldn't be surprised that Election Night 2012 went in one ear and out the other to most Republicans.  All the more fun when it happens again and they're like "...W-WHOA HOPPENED?! I THOUGHT WE WERE GONNA WIN!!!"

/MOAR SCHADENFREUDE MARDI GRAS~!
 
2013-07-17 10:38:51 AM

IlGreven: ...he does know that PPP was one of the most accurate polls of the 2012 elections, right?


You mean the same people who you dismissed before the 2012 elections because their polling was "skewed"?  Those guys and Nate Silver?

Please, enlighten me as to why these polls are "different" from the polls leading up to the 2012 elections.
 
2013-07-17 10:41:29 AM

HotWingConspiracy: Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.


Conservative politics have gotten to the point that, unless you're a masochist, you don't delve neck deep into it.
 
2013-07-17 10:43:18 AM

Jim_Callahan: OK, in all fairness, in both parties there are people with a real interest in serving the public, with coherent and thought-out ideas that, even if you don't agree with them philosophically, at least have some grounding in real issues of meaningful practical priority and goals that are ultimately sympathetic to most people.

In each party there are also a bunch of goddamned morons.

The difference between the GOP and the Dems is less the presence or absence of one or the other group as which group is usually ultimately in charge. The Dems usually have a layer of idiots backed by a group of competent people pulling the strings. The GOP's more like a layer of idiots with a few competent people that used to pull the strings holding on for dear life like a man riding a mechanical bull over a spike-filled pit, that's also on fire.


I would agree that idiocy knows no partisan affiliation. I'm not sure I would agree on the proportion of idiots being the same in both parties, but that's a tough judgment to make on a wide scale. And I would phrase it more as an issue of marginalizing the fringe versus embracing it. The Democratic Party has made huge efforts since losing to the elder Bush in 1988 to push out the crazies, move towards the center of the political spectrum, and grow the party. The Republican Party has made huge efforts since losing to Obama in 2008 to move towards the crazies, push out the center of the political spectrum, and shrink the party.

You can see the end result of this playing out today in the immigration debate. Virtually everyone you could suggest as a big player in the GOP supports the Senate bill and wants to make sure the millions of people who think of themselves as Americans get the legal status that deems them Americans. The RNC, the last GOP president, the last GOP VP candidate, the Chamber of Commerce, Catholic and Evangelical Baptist churches, hard-right think takes...the list goes on and on. Yet everyone I know is putting money on anything resembling the Senate bill getting frozen out of the House because the fringe has been embraced by the party and dad-gum-it, they're going to listen to them.
 
2013-07-17 10:49:27 AM

Jim_Callahan: //Seriously, no one should be allowed out of middle school without a functional understanding of what a representative sample is. It's up there with knowing what natural selection means and where babies come from.


Judging from the current Republican Party leaders, you're asking an awful lot.  They seem to be 0-3 with your criteria.
 
2013-07-17 11:15:42 AM
If the liberals were smart, they'd sell "fraud insurance". If an election results in a victory contrary to the interests of the buyer, the agent agrees to properly investigate up to a certain level of confidence with an hourly rate available for additional investigations.

Then, start a polling company promising a GOP sweep.
 
2013-07-17 11:20:49 AM

Alphax: taoistlumberjak: I'm okay with knowing that guy isn't GOV of a state in this country.

Currently an Attorney General.. that's not usually a job that you want to give to an untrustworthy person.



Albert Gonzalez seen snickering behind his hand.
 
2013-07-17 11:21:08 AM

BitwiseShift: Rasmussen van Winkle wake up and fix your poll. The new kid pollsters are kicking your ass.


Rasmussen had McAuliffe up by 3 when PPP had him up by 4, FWIW, Rasmussen understands that, without credibility, their polls are rather useless and not going to make them any money.
 
2013-07-17 11:22:47 AM
Has anyone actually read the release from Cuccinelli's website? It's pretty obvious it's a joke.
 
2013-07-17 11:23:34 AM
The problems the Republicans are facing isn't polling issues, but image issues. While their platform is sound, they are at a loss as to how to control the runaway media from putting them in a bad light.

Keep kicking when they are down, I suppose. I remember when the media went after the guys who were running show...but now it's easier just to go after the small fries who aren't in your pocket.
 
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