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(Slate)   Problem: Multiple polls show you trailing in your race to become governor. Solution: Invent a fictitious poll that shows you leading in order to prove that you can't trust polls   (slate.com ) divider line
    More: Dumbass, Terry McAuliffe, Cuccinelli, E.W. Jackson, Public Policy Polling, governors  
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4218 clicks; posted to Politics » on 17 Jul 2013 at 1:50 AM (2 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-07-16 10:21:53 PM  
Are the Republicans going to be unskewing polls in every election from here on out?


Ha ha! There is no RRR poll-the campaign is joking that PPP is obviously biased and flawed and that by listing the Libertarian candidate in its poll (he gets 7 percent) it's skewing the results.
 
2013-07-16 10:34:50 PM  
Math Republicans do to make themselves feel better.
 
2013-07-16 10:44:31 PM  

spongeboob: Are the Republicans going to be unskewing polls in every election from here on out?


The beatings unskewing will continue until morale election results improve.
 
2013-07-16 10:53:22 PM  

nmrsnr: spongeboob: Are the Republicans going to be unskewing polls in every election from here on out?

The beatings unskewing will continue until morale election results improve.


That should work out just as well.
 
2013-07-16 11:03:33 PM  
GERRYMANDERING!

It's the new N-word.
 
2013-07-17 12:14:11 AM  
It's fun to laugh and point, but half of our political system is intentionally detached from reality.
 
2013-07-17 12:53:20 AM  
talkingpointsmemo.com

/oblig
 
2013-07-17 01:14:12 AM  

TheOmni: Math Republicans do to make themselves feel better.


Math Republicans do to make themselves feel better.

Math Republicans do to make themselves feel better.


/Pathetic bastards can't win on their ideas because they have none
 
2013-07-17 01:53:15 AM  

MaudlinMutantMollusk: TheOmni: Math Republicans do to make themselves feel better.

Math Republicans do to make themselves feel better.

Math Republicans do to make themselves feel better.

/Pathetic bastards can't win on their ideas because they have none


I don't think that's fair. They have ideas. They're just stupid ones.
 
2013-07-17 01:54:29 AM  
He really puts the cooch in Cuccinelli
 
2013-07-17 01:55:08 AM  
How is Cucinelli only trailing by 4? He's batshiat insane!!
 
2013-07-17 01:59:48 AM  
wonkette.com

/Oblig
 
2013-07-17 02:03:27 AM  

ComicBookGuy: How is Cucinelli only trailing by 4? He's batshiat insane!!


Virginia
 
2013-07-17 02:04:29 AM  

Old republican question:


Rarely is the question asked: Is our children learning?

New republican question:

i651.photobucket.com
 
2013-07-17 02:07:27 AM  

MaudlinMutantMollusk: /Pathetic bastards can't win on their ideas because they have none


OK, in all fairness, in both parties there are people with a real interest in serving the public, with coherent and thought-out ideas that, even if you don't agree with them philosophically, at least have some grounding in real issues of meaningful practical priority and goals that are ultimately sympathetic to most people.

In each party there are also a bunch of goddamned morons.

The difference between the GOP and the Dems is less the presence or absence of one or the other group as which group is usually ultimately in charge.  The Dems usually have a layer of idiots backed by a group of competent people pulling the strings.  The GOP's more like a layer of idiots with a few competent people that used to pull the strings holding on for dear life like a man riding a mechanical bull over a spike-filled pit, that's also on fire.

All the ideas in the world won't help you if you can't manage your base, or bargained for more populist power than you can actually control.  You know there's like twenty guys somewhere up the GOP hierarchy that genuinely want to reasonably reduce the influence of the federal government in a responsible fashion that leads to a balanced budget without screwing anyone, and their mental soundtrack for the last decade has just been an uninterrupted litany of profanity.
 
2013-07-17 02:11:40 AM  

Jim_Callahan: MaudlinMutantMollusk: /Pathetic bastards can't win on their ideas because they have none

OK, in all fairness, in both parties there are people with a real interest in serving the public, with coherent and thought-out ideas that, even if you don't agree with them philosophically, at least have some grounding in real issues of meaningful practical priority and goals that are ultimately sympathetic to most people.

In each party there are also a bunch of goddamned morons.

The difference between the GOP and the Dems is less the presence or absence of one or the other group as which group is usually ultimately in charge.  The Dems usually have a layer of idiots backed by a group of competent people pulling the strings.  The GOP's more like a layer of idiots with a few competent people that used to pull the strings holding on for dear life like a man riding a mechanical bull over a spike-filled pit, that's also on fire.

All the ideas in the world won't help you if you can't manage your base, or bargained for more populist power than you can actually control.  You know there's like twenty guys somewhere up the GOP hierarchy that genuinely want to reasonably reduce the influence of the federal government in a responsible fashion that leads to a balanced budget without screwing anyone, and their mental soundtrack for the last decade has just been an uninterrupted litany of profanity.


The Republican party could resolve the whole issue by a simple act of rebranding

/Just start calling themselves the Tourette's Party
//MOTHERCOCKSH*T
 
2013-07-17 02:12:21 AM  
encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com
"Amateurs"
 
2013-07-17 02:16:46 AM  
I blame the Black Panthers.
 
2013-07-17 02:31:06 AM  

Jim_Callahan: MaudlinMutantMollusk: /Pathetic bastards can't win on their ideas because they have none

OK, in all fairness, in both parties there are people with a real interest in serving the public, with coherent and thought-out ideas that, even if you don't agree with them philosophically, at least have some grounding in real issues of meaningful practical priority and goals that are ultimately sympathetic to most people.

In each party there are also a bunch of goddamned morons.

The difference between the GOP and the Dems is less the presence or absence of one or the other group as which group is usually ultimately in charge.  The Dems usually have a layer of idiots backed by a group of competent people pulling the strings.  The GOP's more like a layer of idiots with a few competent people that used to pull the strings holding on for dear life like a man riding a mechanical bull over a spike-filled pit, that's also on fire.

All the ideas in the world won't help you if you can't manage your base, or bargained for more populist power than you can actually control.  You know there's like twenty guys somewhere up the GOP hierarchy that genuinely want to reasonably reduce the influence of the federal government in a responsible fashion that leads to a balanced budget without screwing anyone, and their mental soundtrack for the last decade has just been an uninterrupted litany of profanity.


Hey, they could always simply become even more extremely conservative and jettison the RINOs.  What could possibly go wrong?
 
2013-07-17 02:31:06 AM  
There is no margin of error, since RRR only produces error free surveys

I wasn't aware math counted as a science, and as such am surprised that this Republican doesn't believe in it.
 
2013-07-17 02:31:59 AM  
I'm Sh*t King of F&ck mountain!

and I don't own a Tee-Vee
 
2013-07-17 02:32:30 AM  
It seems like there might be a huge market for fake polling. Quick! Set up a shell company, shovel some money in and start cranking out numbers, regardless of whether they make sense or not!

/The latest polls from the WITTY* institute show that the dogs are up by infinity percent.

*Warrgharrbl Institute of Theocratic Thermal Yodeling
 
2013-07-17 02:35:58 AM  
He's been implicated in the same scandals as Gov. Ultrasound, so he may not last until election day without an indictment.
 
2013-07-17 02:39:51 AM  

HighOnCraic: Hey, they could always simply become even more extremely conservative and jettison the RINOs.  What could possibly go wrong?


Well, the problem for the people considering leaving is that politics is a game of connections, and ditching your party can mean starting from scratch and having the same chance of failure as a newcomer.

So RINOs aren't really ditching the party so much as new blood with some intellectual heft is looking at the party and deciding that the environment's not conducive to a career, and going with the democrats instead where they have any choice at all (they don't always).

All this sort of adds up to why the GOP is dying the slow death of a thousand cuts and hanging on long enough to fark a lot of shiat up in its death spasms instead of just becoming a ghost town overnight as it likely would if members could just say "fark it" and switch like voters can.
 
2013-07-17 02:43:15 AM  
Does it work?

/ dnrtfa
 
2013-07-17 02:44:36 AM  
You can't make policy if you don't win the seat. The important thing is to win first, then worry about the policy.
 
2013-07-17 02:46:38 AM  
This is pretty consistent with Republican logic. Tell everyone that government can't do anything right, get elected, proceed to sabotage government and do a terrible job, repeat.
 
2013-07-17 02:50:41 AM  
Guys like us, we don't pay attention to the polls. We know that polls are just a collection of statistics that reflect what people are thinking in reality. And reality has a well-known liberal bias.

www.themerrymonk.com
 
2013-07-17 03:04:19 AM  
A Republican in Virginia is doing something duplicitous and slimy? What, did the sun come up in the east today or something?
 
2013-07-17 03:08:20 AM  
(Reality + (Reagan(America + patriotism))) * (0bummer - b..but Bush) - (the libs+the gays+abortions)  - (communism * socialism) = actual fact

suck it libs
 
2013-07-17 03:15:49 AM  

spongeboob: Are the Republicans going to be unskewing polls in every election from here on out?


Ha ha! There is no RRR poll-the campaign is joking that PPP is obviously biased and flawed and that by listing the Libertarian candidate in its poll (he gets 7 percent) it's skewing the results.


...he does know that PPP was one of the most accurate polls of the 2012 elections, right?
 
2013-07-17 03:19:11 AM  

mephox: It seems like there might be a huge market for fake polling. Quick! Set up a shell company, shovel some money in and start cranking out numbers, regardless of whether they make sense or not!

/The latest polls from the WITTY* institute show that the dogs are up by infinity percent.

*Warrgharrbl Institute of Theocratic Thermal Yodeling


There is a market, and the company filling that niche was called Strategic Vision. Best I can tell from their website  http://www.strategicvision.biz/, they seem to have abandoned polling after a wee controversy in 2009, and now do straight PR.
 
2013-07-17 03:27:19 AM  

IlGreven: ...he does know that PPP was one of the  most accurate polls of the 2012 elections, right?


So then you're admitting they consistently favored democrats.
 
2013-07-17 04:10:16 AM  

spongeboob: Are the Republicans going to be unskewing polls in every election from here on out?


Ha ha! There is no RRR poll-the campaign is joking that PPP is obviously biased and flawed and that by listing the Libertarian candidate in its poll (he gets 7 percent) it's skewing the results.


Should really let them "un"skew the polls in their favor as much as they want.

There are psychological factors that come into play when a side thinks it's going to win over the other that leads to fewer votes on their side (I don't have time to go out there and vote, and we're gonna win anyway, so what's the point?).  Same thing in the other direction for a side that thinks it's going to lose, at least until their perceived chances are too low.
 
2013-07-17 04:44:11 AM  
Typical Fark. Only links to stories where it's Republicans doing this sort of thing.
 
2013-07-17 05:28:54 AM  

Ilmarinen: Typical Fark. Only links to stories where it's Republicans doing this sort of thing.


You know of anyone else doing it?  No?
 
2013-07-17 05:30:45 AM  

Albino Squid: mephox: It seems like there might be a huge market for fake polling. Quick! Set up a shell company, shovel some money in and start cranking out numbers, regardless of whether they make sense or not!

/The latest polls from the WITTY* institute show that the dogs are up by infinity percent.

*Warrgharrbl Institute of Theocratic Thermal Yodeling

There is a market, and the company filling that niche was called Strategic Vision. Best I can tell from their website  http://www.strategicvision.biz/, they seem to have abandoned polling after a wee controversy in 2009, and now do straight PR.


And by "wee controversy", I assume you're referring to the wonderful series of posts by Nate Silver in which he showed that Strategic Vision's results looked an awful lot like what you'd get if somebody naive about statistics made them up out of whole cloth, and wondered aloud whether SV had ever actually conducted a poll and if so, where was the call center in question? SV blustered about libel and lawsuits for a while, then quietly slunk away...
 
2013-07-17 05:31:23 AM  

cdn-static.zdnet.comspinsucks.com

bnemarketing.comencrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com

*NARF!*

 
2013-07-17 06:01:39 AM  
czetie:
And by "wee controversy", I assume you're referring to the wonderful series of posts by Nate Silver in which he showed that Strategic Vision's results looked an awful lot like what you'd get if somebody naive about statistics made them up out of whole cloth, and wondered aloud whether SV had ever actually conducted a poll and if so, where was the call center in question? SV blustered about libel and lawsuits for a while, then quietly slunk away...

There was also the bit where the American Association for Public Opinion Research flagged them because they refused to provide any information beyond the top-lines, and the fact that SV was supposedly conducting live calling, which is very expensive, and covering a great many races many months out, all while operating out of a small office in rural Georgia. Yep, that'd be the wee controversy.
 
2013-07-17 06:47:55 AM  
"Come with me... And you'll be... living in a world of pure imagination..."


Ought to be the GOP's theme song...
 
2013-07-17 06:56:14 AM  

Mantour: [wonkette.com image 494x316]

/Oblig


Um...is that real?  I mean, I know it's Fox News and all, but...there's no way that can be real.  Can it?

/I don't want to live on this planet any more.
 
2013-07-17 07:08:14 AM  

thamike: [cdn-static.zdnet.com image 472x327][spinsucks.com image 267x267]

[bnemarketing.com image 256x320][encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com image 465x321]

*NARF!*


I want to force myself to develop telekinesis on a cosmic scale, so I can destroy every person in that third picture, molecule by molecule.
 
2013-07-17 07:08:36 AM  
I'm okay with knowing that guy isn't GOV of a state in this country.
 
2013-07-17 07:10:22 AM  

fusillade762: I blame the Black Panthers.


You say that in jest, but yesterday I caught a glimpse of Fox and Friends as I passed thru the galley. They were going on about the Zimmerman verdict and "just asking questions" about whether Holder was going to bring a civil rights case against him.

I am sure it is just their video short hand for race fear by talking over video of those two black panthers at the polling place, what 6 years ago?

Like I said you jest, but the whispers are just that "are you fearful of the blacks, yet?"
 
2013-07-17 07:10:50 AM  

taoistlumberjak: I'm okay with knowing that guy isn't GOV of a state in this country.


Currently an Attorney General.. that's not usually a job that you want to give to an untrustworthy person.
 
2013-07-17 07:16:49 AM  

Alphax: taoistlumberjak: I'm okay with knowing that guy isn't GOV of a state in this country.

Currently an Attorney General.. that's not usually a job that you want to give to an untrustworthy person.


And yet, here we are.
 
2013-07-17 07:19:19 AM  

taoistlumberjak: Alphax: taoistlumberjak: I'm okay with knowing that guy isn't GOV of a state in this country.

Currently an Attorney General.. that's not usually a job that you want to give to an untrustworthy person.

And yet, here we are.


IIRC, one of his acts in office was to order the state colleges to remove their restrictions that ban discrimination against gay people.
 
2013-07-17 07:21:43 AM  
According to the latest RRR Poll, Ken Cuccinelli leads his opponent Terry McAuliffe by 13.3 points, up from 12 points from RRR's inaugural Poll released May 30th... There is no margin of error, since RRR only produces error free surveys - and unlike PPP or DDD - we poll those actually voting (as we think that's important).

Is this their campaign spokesman?

www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com
 
2013-07-17 07:24:54 AM  
And again, this won't matter to the people that vote for him.
 
2013-07-17 07:34:55 AM  

keylock71: "Come with me... And you'll be... living in a world of pure imagination..."


Ought to be the GOP's theme song...


I would also have accepted "Xanadu."
 
2013-07-17 07:40:37 AM  
According to the latest RRR Poll, Ken Cuccinelli leads his opponent Terry McAuliffe by 13.3 points, up from 12 points from RRR's inaugural Poll released May 30th... There is no margin of error, since RRR only produces error free surveys - and unlike PPP or DDD - we poll those actually voting (as we think that's important).
 Uuuum, the only way to produce an error-free poll is to ensure the following conditions are met:


1.  You ask exactly everyone who will vote on election day; no fewer, no more,
2. They don't lie or change their minds before they cast their ballot
3. There is 100% data integrity in collection

Anything less and you're completely full of shiat.
 
2013-07-17 07:41:56 AM  

doyner: According to the latest RRR Poll, Ken Cuccinelli leads his opponent Terry McAuliffe by 13.3 points, up from 12 points from RRR's inaugural Poll released May 30th... There is no margin of error, since RRR only produces error free surveys - and unlike PPP or DDD - we poll those actually voting (as we think that's important). Uuuum, the only way to produce an error-free poll is to ensure the following conditions are met:


1.  You ask exactly everyone who will vote on election day; no fewer, no more,
2. They don't lie or change their minds before they cast their ballot
3. There is 100% data integrity in collection

Anything less and you're completely full of shiat.


Also, no such thing as an RRR poll.
 
2013-07-17 07:43:51 AM  

Alphax: Also, no such thing as an RRR poll.


Sure there is; Rovian Retarded Regression.  They're right up there with Rasmussen.
 
2013-07-17 07:43:54 AM  

mephox: It seems like there might be a huge market for fake polling. Quick! Set up a shell company, shovel some money in and start cranking out numbers, regardless of whether they make sense or not!

/The latest polls from the WITTY* institute show that the dogs are up by infinity percent.

*Warrgharrbl Institute of Theocratic Thermal Yodeling


There might be? Fake polling is an established method of making money by convincing people you are providing an actual service to them by handing them numbers that say what they want. Remember Strategic Vision? See also Research2000 (though that was less cut-and-dry.)
 
2013-07-17 07:45:35 AM  
Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.
 
2013-07-17 07:48:17 AM  

dickfreckle: keylock71: "Come with me... And you'll be... living in a world of pure imagination..."


Ought to be the GOP's theme song...

I would also have accepted "Xanadu."


Attention World!
This is the moment I have decided to become a billionaire then entrench myself into the GOP heirarchy just so I get to arrange the entertainment for a future Republican convention where I will lock the doors, Carrie style, and play the whole of  The Rocky Horror Picture Show. Just. For. The. Lulz.

Don't try and copy my insanely brilliant idea.. I've already invested heavily in tinned peaches and gold.. the rest will be a cakewalk!
 
2013-07-17 07:50:03 AM  

doyner: Uuuum, the only way to produce an error-free poll is to ensure the following conditions are met:

1.  You ask exactly everyone who will vote on election day; no fewer, no more,
2. They don't lie or change their minds before they cast their ballot
3. There is 100% data integrity in collection

Anything less and you're completely full of shiat.


Posts like this are why I will always advocate some sort of basic statistics course taught at some grade level before children are allowed to drop out of school.  The fact that you don't even seem to realize that you've just typed the stats equivalent of "you can't say with 100% certainty that the world isn't flat without personally walking all the way around it, and even then what if you just went in a circle?" makes my inner educator curl up and cry softly in the corner of a mental dark room, all hope for the future of humanity finally lost forever.

//Seriously, no one should be allowed out of middle school without a functional understanding of what a representative sample is.  It's up there with knowing what natural selection means and where babies come from.
 
2013-07-17 07:52:46 AM  

ComicBookGuy: How is Cucinelli only trailing by 4? He's batshiat insane!!


Not compared to EW Jackson.
 
2013-07-17 08:00:09 AM  

Jim_Callahan: doyner: Uuuum, the only way to produce an error-free poll is to ensure the following conditions are met:

1.  You ask exactly everyone who will vote on election day; no fewer, no more,
2. They don't lie or change their minds before they cast their ballot
3. There is 100% data integrity in collection

Anything less and you're completely full of shiat.

Posts like this are why I will always advocate some sort of basic statistics course taught at some grade level before children are allowed to drop out of school.  The fact that you don't even seem to realize that you've just typed the stats equivalent of "you can't say with 100% certainty that the world isn't flat without personally walking all the way around it, and even then what if you just went in a circle?" makes my inner educator curl up and cry softly in the corner of a mental dark room, all hope for the future of humanity finally lost forever.

//Seriously, no one should be allowed out of middle school without a functional understanding of what a representative sample is.  It's up there with knowing what natural selection means and where babies come from.


Oh boy, you really hit me right in the statisticals!

Even samples that indicate the world is round have a margin of error.  The line between having a margin of error (however minute) is the line between inferential and descriptive statistics.

Try using your college-level reading comprehension on my original post again.
 
2013-07-17 08:00:23 AM  
I think it's awesome that I don't even need to check the articles anymore.  When a politician does something really dumb, we already know the political affiliation.
 
2013-07-17 08:10:52 AM  

Alphax: Ilmarinen: Typical Fark. Only links to stories where it's Republicans doing this sort of thing.

You know of anyone else doing it?  No?


No. I didn't even need to hover my cursor over the link to know it was the GOP.

/thatsthejoke
 
2013-07-17 08:14:08 AM  

Mantour: [wonkette.com image 494x316]

/Oblig


My god not only does that go past 100 percent it's the most loaded question poll I have ever seen.
 
2013-07-17 08:18:10 AM  
.
 
2013-07-17 08:21:03 AM  
Rapmaster2000 is awesome.  There is zero margin of error.
 
2013-07-17 08:29:22 AM  

Dog Welder: Mantour: [wonkette.com image 494x316]

/Oblig

Um...is that real?  I mean, I know it's Fox News and all, but...there's no way that can be real.  Can it?

/I don't want to live on this planet any more.


It is real. To be fair it was Fox at fault not Rasmussen. Basically they included people who said it was very likely in with the people who said it was somewhat likely and compared it to people who said it was very unlikely (they threw out somewhat unlikely from the graph entirely.) The result would be linguisticly deceptive had they not went full throttle and put very likely in the graphic too, which reveals the deceit. So... thanks for that I guess?
 
2013-07-17 08:44:31 AM  

TheOmni: Math Republicans do to make themselves feel better.


Mathturbation
 
2013-07-17 08:49:46 AM  
Rasmussen van Winkle wake up and fix your poll. The new kid pollsters are kicking your ass.
 
2013-07-17 08:52:24 AM  
How did I know this was going to be a republican before I read the story  if both sides are the same?
 
2013-07-17 08:52:48 AM  

HotWingConspiracy: Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.


It will be interesting (read:  horrifying) to see how long the money can keep these assholes propped up.  They're pulling out all the tricks:  falsified polling data, gerrymandering, changes to voting laws, blatant corporate financing of campaigns.  Without these, they would be losing seats every election at the federal level.

I'm hoping it's a reversible process.  I'm hoping the people in Kansas, Texas, South Carolina, etc., wake up one day and say, "You know, we keep voting for these asshats, and things keep getting worse.  Perhaps their claims are disingenuous".  Maybe they don't need to; maybe things will get bad enough to motivate even the most apathetic "moderate" (read: lazy fark) to the polls.  I'm stretching it already; I won't go so far as to suggest people might start educating themselves to vote in their best interests.
 
2013-07-17 08:57:21 AM  

Headso: How did I know this was going to be a republican before I read the story  if both sides are the same?


EXACTLY the same. There is absolutely no difference between them.


Except democrats are like a BILLION times worse.
 
2013-07-17 08:58:03 AM  
www.biography.com

I really thought it would work for me. Damn you Nate Silver and your real numbers.
 
2013-07-17 08:59:27 AM  

falcon176: (Reality + (Reagan(America + patriotism))) * (0bummer - b..but Bush) - (the libs+the gays+abortions)  - (communism * socialism) = actual fact

suck it libs


Ah, the famed Derp Equation.


HotWingConspiracy: Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.


Makes perfect sense to me.  It seems to be a two-step process:
1) Find out what liberals are saying
2) Say the opposite
 
2013-07-17 09:07:51 AM  
Traditionally there were no polls, and politicians were self-salesmen expounding on the "There's no reason to doubt we'll win!" mentality. And conservatives are full of the sort of assholes who insist on the going with the positivist message "If you think you can, you can." type bullshiat that got us into Iraq!
 
2013-07-17 09:10:16 AM  

Arkanaut: Makes perfect sense to me. It seems to be a two-step process:
1) Find out what liberals are saying
2) Say the opposite


I do find it troublesome how every and all positions on any issue that are contrary to the FOX position are now deemed the "libbiest lib that libbed".

I known I've seen sociological studies that showed that people in groups will start trying to outdo each other to show their value.  In the case of politics, we see this in the far right shift our country has taken since a black man was elected President Obama started destroying everything American.

At what point does the deliberate spreading of misinformation for political purposes and financial wealth cease to be "1st Amendment Rights" and become equivalent to shouting "fire" in a movie theater?
 
2013-07-17 09:13:38 AM  

Headso: How did I know this was going to be a republican before I read the story  if both sides are the same?


DUH! There was only two choices right? like flipping a coin, So you got 75% in favor of guessing the right one anyway.

/GOP math
 
2013-07-17 09:16:28 AM  

Huck And Molly Ziegler: A Republican in Virginia is doing something duplicitous and slimy? What, did the sun come up in the east today or something?


Headso: How did I know this was going to be a republican before I read the story  if both sides are the same?


Tomahawk513: I think it's awesome that I don't even need to check the articles anymore.  When a politician does something really dumb, we already know the political affiliation.


HotWingConspiracy: Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.


They didn't really invent a poll and try and pass it off as real.  They tried to make a joke about how they don't believe the current polling.

Rule #1. Always click the article before posting
 
2013-07-17 09:21:03 AM  

spongeboob: Are the Republicans going to be unskewing polls in every election from here on out?


Since that guarantees fail campaigns, I sure hope so.
 
2013-07-17 09:27:59 AM  

born_yesterday: I known I've seen sociological studies that showed that people in groups will start trying to outdo each other to show their value.


You're right.  The Republican Party has really shown how valuable they are to the vitality of our democracy over the last few years.
 
2013-07-17 09:30:34 AM  

JusticeandIndependence: Huck And Molly Ziegler: A Republican in Virginia is doing something duplicitous and slimy? What, did the sun come up in the east today or something?

Headso: How did I know this was going to be a republican before I read the story  if both sides are the same?

Tomahawk513: I think it's awesome that I don't even need to check the articles anymore.  When a politician does something really dumb, we already know the political affiliation.

HotWingConspiracy: Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.

They didn't really invent a poll and try and pass it off as real.  They tried to make a joke about how they don't believe the current polling.

Rule #1. Always click the article before posting


It doesn't really matter though because in both scenarios its just more of these corrupt money grubbing theocrats trying to appeal to people who think math and science are wizardry. Hopefully they lose power before things get any worse.
 
2013-07-17 09:33:21 AM  

wildcardjack: Traditionally there were no polls, and politicians were self-salesmen expounding on the "There's no reason to doubt we'll win!" mentality. And conservatives are full of the sort of assholes who insist on the going with the positivist message "If you think you can, you can." type bullshiat that got us into Iraq!


We would have won in Iraq if it wasn't for liberals questioning it! If we all believed in it, we would have been greeted as liberators.

Reminds me of Yugioh! Abridged (paraphrased):

Tea: "If we all believe in the power of friendship with all our hearts, he'll pull through!"
*flatlines*
Tea: "...alright, which one of you motherfarkers didn't believe in the power of friendship hard enough?"
 
2013-07-17 09:33:27 AM  

JusticeandIndependence: Rule #1. Always click the article before posting


It was  democrat?
 
2013-07-17 09:33:55 AM  

JusticeandIndependence: They didn't really invent a poll and try and pass it off as real. They tried to make a joke about how they don't believe the current polling


yes, but do you think that their base will get the joke or believe instead that the thing is real? Remember, we are talking about Fox&Friends-watcher types here.
 
2013-07-17 09:36:33 AM  

FuturePastNow: spongeboob: Are the Republicans going to be unskewing polls in every election from here on out?

Since that guarantees fail campaigns, I sure hope so.


this.

remember: a fact is true whether you believe in it or not. the more the GOP "unskews" polls, the less prepared they'll be for reality. and that's good for democrats and the nation.
 
2013-07-17 09:44:27 AM  

Mrfusticle: dickfreckle: keylock71: "Come with me... And you'll be... living in a world of pure imagination..."


Ought to be the GOP's theme song...

I would also have accepted "Xanadu."

Attention World!
This is the moment I have decided to become a billionaire then entrench myself into the GOP heirarchy just so I get to arrange the entertainment for a future Republican convention where I will lock the doors, Carrie style, and play the whole of  The Rocky Horror Picture Show. Just. For. The. Lulz.

Don't try and copy my insanely brilliant idea.. I've already invested heavily in tinned peaches and gold.. the rest will be a cakewalk!


I was thinking more along the lines of an "Inglorious Bastards" ending and showing some NRA/GOP/Anti-abortion mockumentry.  But that would work to
 
2013-07-17 09:54:01 AM  

Headso: JusticeandIndependence: Rule #1. Always click the article before posting

It was  democrat?


sorry quoted wrong person.  Yours didn't matter whether you clicked the story or not.

Carry on.
 
2013-07-17 10:05:44 AM  
I'm farking shocked that the guy who wanted to make blowjobs illegal is losing. Seriously, if you could see my face, you would know that I am shocked.
 
2013-07-17 10:07:35 AM  

thurstonxhowell: I'm farking shocked that the guy who wanted to make blowjobs illegal is losing. Seriously, if you could see my face, you would know that I am shocked.


Pretty dang much.
 
2013-07-17 10:18:38 AM  

thurstonxhowell: I'm farking shocked that the guy who wanted to make blowjobs illegal is losing. Seriously, if you could see my face, you would know that I am shocked.


I'm pretty sure that's not your shocked face...
 
2013-07-17 10:26:15 AM  

thurstonxhowell: I'm farking shocked that the guy who wanted to make blowjobs illegal is losing. Seriously, if you could see my face, you would know that I am shocked.



Is this somethinng like your shocked face:

i.telegraph.co.uk
 
2013-07-17 10:34:30 AM  
Bwahhaahaaaaa!

Oh, republican voters. You're such idiots.
 
2013-07-17 10:35:28 AM  
I really shouldn't be surprised that Election Night 2012 went in one ear and out the other to most Republicans.  All the more fun when it happens again and they're like "...W-WHOA HOPPENED?! I THOUGHT WE WERE GONNA WIN!!!"

/MOAR SCHADENFREUDE MARDI GRAS~!
 
2013-07-17 10:38:51 AM  

IlGreven: ...he does know that PPP was one of the most accurate polls of the 2012 elections, right?


You mean the same people who you dismissed before the 2012 elections because their polling was "skewed"?  Those guys and Nate Silver?

Please, enlighten me as to why these polls are "different" from the polls leading up to the 2012 elections.
 
2013-07-17 10:41:29 AM  

HotWingConspiracy: Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.


Conservative politics have gotten to the point that, unless you're a masochist, you don't delve neck deep into it.
 
2013-07-17 10:43:18 AM  

Jim_Callahan: OK, in all fairness, in both parties there are people with a real interest in serving the public, with coherent and thought-out ideas that, even if you don't agree with them philosophically, at least have some grounding in real issues of meaningful practical priority and goals that are ultimately sympathetic to most people.

In each party there are also a bunch of goddamned morons.

The difference between the GOP and the Dems is less the presence or absence of one or the other group as which group is usually ultimately in charge. The Dems usually have a layer of idiots backed by a group of competent people pulling the strings. The GOP's more like a layer of idiots with a few competent people that used to pull the strings holding on for dear life like a man riding a mechanical bull over a spike-filled pit, that's also on fire.


I would agree that idiocy knows no partisan affiliation. I'm not sure I would agree on the proportion of idiots being the same in both parties, but that's a tough judgment to make on a wide scale. And I would phrase it more as an issue of marginalizing the fringe versus embracing it. The Democratic Party has made huge efforts since losing to the elder Bush in 1988 to push out the crazies, move towards the center of the political spectrum, and grow the party. The Republican Party has made huge efforts since losing to Obama in 2008 to move towards the crazies, push out the center of the political spectrum, and shrink the party.

You can see the end result of this playing out today in the immigration debate. Virtually everyone you could suggest as a big player in the GOP supports the Senate bill and wants to make sure the millions of people who think of themselves as Americans get the legal status that deems them Americans. The RNC, the last GOP president, the last GOP VP candidate, the Chamber of Commerce, Catholic and Evangelical Baptist churches, hard-right think takes...the list goes on and on. Yet everyone I know is putting money on anything resembling the Senate bill getting frozen out of the House because the fringe has been embraced by the party and dad-gum-it, they're going to listen to them.
 
2013-07-17 10:49:27 AM  

Jim_Callahan: //Seriously, no one should be allowed out of middle school without a functional understanding of what a representative sample is. It's up there with knowing what natural selection means and where babies come from.


Judging from the current Republican Party leaders, you're asking an awful lot.  They seem to be 0-3 with your criteria.
 
2013-07-17 11:15:42 AM  
If the liberals were smart, they'd sell "fraud insurance". If an election results in a victory contrary to the interests of the buyer, the agent agrees to properly investigate up to a certain level of confidence with an hourly rate available for additional investigations.

Then, start a polling company promising a GOP sweep.
 
2013-07-17 11:20:49 AM  

Alphax: taoistlumberjak: I'm okay with knowing that guy isn't GOV of a state in this country.

Currently an Attorney General.. that's not usually a job that you want to give to an untrustworthy person.



Albert Gonzalez seen snickering behind his hand.
 
2013-07-17 11:21:08 AM  

BitwiseShift: Rasmussen van Winkle wake up and fix your poll. The new kid pollsters are kicking your ass.


Rasmussen had McAuliffe up by 3 when PPP had him up by 4, FWIW, Rasmussen understands that, without credibility, their polls are rather useless and not going to make them any money.
 
2013-07-17 11:22:47 AM  
Has anyone actually read the release from Cuccinelli's website? It's pretty obvious it's a joke.
 
2013-07-17 11:23:34 AM  
The problems the Republicans are facing isn't polling issues, but image issues. While their platform is sound, they are at a loss as to how to control the runaway media from putting them in a bad light.

Keep kicking when they are down, I suppose. I remember when the media went after the guys who were running show...but now it's easier just to go after the small fries who aren't in your pocket.
 
2013-07-17 11:32:04 AM  

DarwiOdrade: Has anyone actually read the release from Cuccinelli's website? It's pretty obvious it's a joke.


It's a really weird meta-joke that reads like it should be from a Democratic publication making fun of the whole "unskewed" bullshiat. I have no farking clue what Cooch's point is for that release. It's a joke about the very complaints the person telling the joke is making.
 
2013-07-17 11:33:37 AM  

snowshovel: The problems the Republicans are facing isn't polling issues, but image issues. While their platform is sound, they are at a loss as to how to control the runaway media from putting them in a bad light.

Keep kicking when they are down, I suppose. I remember when the media went after the guys who were running show...but now it's easier just to go after the small fries who aren't in your pocket.


You sound butthurt.

/Yeah, the AG under the previous/current administration really is the "small fry."
 
2013-07-17 11:35:18 AM  

JusticeandIndependence: Huck And Molly Ziegler: A Republican in Virginia is doing something duplicitous and slimy? What, did the sun come up in the east today or something?

Headso: How did I know this was going to be a republican before I read the story  if both sides are the same?

Tomahawk513: I think it's awesome that I don't even need to check the articles anymore.  When a politician does something really dumb, we already know the political affiliation.

HotWingConspiracy: Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.

They didn't really invent a poll and try and pass it off as real.  They tried to make a joke about how they don't believe the current polling.

Rule #1. Always click the article before posting


I don't need to click to know Rule #1 was pulled from a dark stinky place.
 
2013-07-17 11:36:03 AM  

Alphax: taoistlumberjak: Alphax: taoistlumberjak: I'm okay with knowing that guy isn't GOV of a state in this country.

Currently an Attorney General.. that's not usually a job that you want to give to an untrustworthy person.

And yet, here we are.

IIRC, one of his acts in office was to order the state colleges to remove their restrictions that ban discrimination against gay people.


Yep, and my college SGA drafted a big fat FARK YOU letter right back at him
 
2013-07-17 11:44:20 AM  
Serious Black:
...
The Democratic Party has made huge efforts since losing to the elder Bush in 1988 to push out the crazies, move towards the center of the political spectrum, and grow the party. The Republican Party has made huge efforts since losing to Obama in 2008 to move towards the crazies, push out the center of the political spectrum, and shrink the party.
...

The Republican Party has been "moving toward the crazies" since Gerald Ford lost the election.  Reagan's craziness wasn't too extreme and he was charismatic enough to cover the rest, but he brought the "moral majority" (the "immoral minority" later disbanded claiming they couldn't compete with the mm's immorality and gave what was left of the budget to the ACLU).  The mm begat the "christian coalition" (see Ralph Reed to see what happened to that) which begat the tea party.

As far as any sort reason you would believe all this craziness, the high point of "conservative intellectualism" was the William Buckley and the National Review.  Think about that, they peaked while running around insisting on keeping blacks from voting and went down from there.  In aerospace, enough power will make a brick fly.  In politics, enough money will keep "conservatism" alive.
 
2013-07-17 11:44:52 AM  
Eh... I thought it was pretty clear he was trying to jokingly say that the only poll they care about is the ballot box, he just botched the delivery and over complicated it with details.

Remember - we're dealing with a conservative here, they're still working out this "humor" thing.
 
2013-07-17 11:51:12 AM  

Snarcoleptic_Hoosier: If the liberals were smart, they'd sell "fraud insurance". If an election results in a victory contrary to the interests of the buyer, the agent agrees to properly investigate up to a certain level of confidence with an hourly rate available for additional investigations.

Then, start a polling company promising a GOP sweep.


Heh, unfortunately Karl Rove stole that idea. XD
 
2013-07-17 11:57:16 AM  

Notabunny: It's fun to laugh and point, but half of our political system is intentionally detached from reality.


I'm hoping that they just complete the process - once the reality bubble is tight enough (and it may already be), Republicans can just stop running for office altogether.

All they need to do is tell everyone in the bubble that anyone claiming that there's a Democratic majority in Congress or a Democrat in the White House is a lying liberal, not to be trusted. Also, we repealed Obamacare and outlawed abortion - pay no attention to the insurance exchange websites or the abortionplex down the street, the lamestream media is just pushing the liberal narrative.

Then we can get on with our lives out here in the reality-based community.
 
2013-07-17 11:58:29 AM  

snowshovel: The problems the Republicans are facing isn't polling issues, but image issues. While their platform is sound, they are at a loss as to how to control the runaway media from putting them in a bad light.


WUT?
 
2013-07-17 11:58:57 AM  

yet_another_wumpus: Serious Black:
...
The Democratic Party has made huge efforts since losing to the elder Bush in 1988 to push out the crazies, move towards the center of the political spectrum, and grow the party. The Republican Party has made huge efforts since losing to Obama in 2008 to move towards the crazies, push out the center of the political spectrum, and shrink the party.
...
The Republican Party has been "moving toward the crazies" since Gerald Ford lost the election.  Reagan's craziness wasn't too extreme and he was charismatic enough to cover the rest, but he brought the "moral majority" (the "immoral minority" later disbanded claiming they couldn't compete with the mm's immorality and gave what was left of the budget to the ACLU).  The mm begat the "christian coalition" (see Ralph Reed to see what happened to that) which begat the tea party.


That is a truth fact. You can move the calendar back to approximately 1978. Though to be fair, the problem has exploded in the last few years.
 
2013-07-17 12:00:41 PM  

DarwiOdrade: Has anyone actually read the release from Cuccinelli's website? It's pretty obvious it's a joke.


What, and give them page views? Can't we just bicker about it here?
 
2013-07-17 12:06:42 PM  

HotWingConspiracy: Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.


Seem pretty cut and dried to me.

1) find out what voters are afraid of
2) campaign on that fear
3) get elected
4) ignore all campaign fear and do whatever the hell they want
 
2013-07-17 12:11:50 PM  
Republicans lie so you can get the point faster.
 
2013-07-17 12:13:33 PM  

Crabs_Can_Polevault: snowshovel: The problems the Republicans are facing isn't polling issues, but image issues. While their platform is sound, they are at a loss as to how to control the runaway media from putting them in a bad light.

WUT?


He's previously claimed that Obama was shutting down Rush's shows.  He's not exactly based in reality.
 
2013-07-17 12:20:17 PM  

born_yesterday: HotWingConspiracy: Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.

It will be interesting (read:  horrifying) to see how long the money can keep these assholes propped up.  They're pulling out all the tricks:  falsified polling data, gerrymandering, changes to voting laws, blatant corporate financing of campaigns.  Without these, they would be losing seats every election at the federal level.

I'm hoping it's a reversible process.  I'm hoping the people in Kansas, Texas, South Carolina, etc., wake up one day and say, "You know, we keep voting for these asshats, and things keep getting worse.  Perhaps their claims are disingenuous".  Maybe they don't need to; maybe things will get bad enough to motivate even the most apathetic "moderate" (read: lazy fark) to the polls.  I'm stretching it already; I won't go so far as to suggest people might start educating themselves to vote in their best interests.


It doesn't really work that way.  You have to look at the world the way a typical Republican voter looks at the world.  For example, if you think that abortion is murdering babies, you are never going to vote for the guy who is in favor of murdering babies.  No matter how bad the other guy is on any other issue-as long as he is against baby murdering, you are still going to vote for him.

In states and districts that are safely Republican, there are enough people who hate abortion (or gays, or blacks, or Mexicans, or gun control, or taxes, or government regulation) that the Democrat has to win basically every single mushy middle voter (or possibily them plus some of the "hates fill-in-the-blank" voters) to win, which ranges from close to impossible to literally impossible.

Now, Virginia only slightly leans red; it's not, say, Kansas, so this doesn't fully apply.
 
2013-07-17 12:26:28 PM  
LOL Republicans. Where would American society be without gerrymandering?
 
2013-07-17 12:30:20 PM  

mainstreet62: LOL Republicans. Where would American society be without gerrymandering?


About the same place the world would be without the Christian Dark Ages.
 
2013-07-17 01:13:28 PM  

snowshovel: The problems the Republicans are facing isn't polling issues, but image issues. While their platform is sound, they are at a loss as to how to control the runaway media from putting them in a bad light.


Sound?  Their platform, sound?

Their platform is malice, a desire to hurt others.
 
2013-07-17 01:31:47 PM  

born_yesterday: At what point does the deliberate spreading of misinformation for political purposes and financial wealth cease to be "1st Amendment Rights" and become equivalent to shouting "fire" in a movie theater?


Schenck was Overturned by Brandenburg v. Ohio in 1969.  So you can shout "fire" in a movie theater.
 
2013-07-17 01:43:11 PM  

doyner: According to the latest RRR Poll, Ken Cuccinelli leads his opponent Terry McAuliffe by 13.3 points, up from 12 points from RRR's inaugural Poll released May 30th... There is no margin of error, since RRR only produces error free surveys - and unlike PPP or DDD - we poll those actually voting (as we think that's important). Uuuum, the only way to produce an error-free poll is to ensure the following conditions are met:


1.  You ask exactly everyone who will vote on election day; no fewer, no more,
2. They don't lie or change their minds before they cast their ballot
3. There is 100% data integrity in collection

Anything less and you're completely full of shiat.



The next time you go to the doctor for a check-up and he orders a blood sample make sure they drain all of the blood out of you and that they test every single drop.  After all, using a representative sample can't possibly give you reliable results, right?

Plus it would have the side benefit of cleaning up the gene pool a wee bit.
 
2013-07-17 01:57:53 PM  

jonasborg: born_yesterday: At what point does the deliberate spreading of misinformation for political purposes and financial wealth cease to be "1st Amendment Rights" and become equivalent to shouting "fire" in a movie theater?

Schenck was Overturned by Brandenburg v. Ohio in 1969.  So you can shout "fire" in a movie theater.


You would be in the clear shouting "open fire".  Just "fire" has some issues, but you should get away with it as long as the theater doesn't use open gas flames for lighting the way they did when the principle was established.
 
2013-07-17 02:13:36 PM  

HotWingConspiracy: Conservative politics have become utterly incomprehensible to me.


Just imagine you've hit your head so hard you have possibly lethal brain damage. That might help.
 
2013-07-17 03:19:35 PM  

John the Magnificent: doyner: According to the latest RRR Poll, Ken Cuccinelli leads his opponent Terry McAuliffe by 13.3 points, up from 12 points from RRR's inaugural Poll released May 30th... There is no margin of error, since RRR only produces error free surveys - and unlike PPP or DDD - we poll those actually voting (as we think that's important). Uuuum, the only way to produce an error-free poll is to ensure the following conditions are met:


1.  You ask exactly everyone who will vote on election day; no fewer, no more,
2. They don't lie or change their minds before they cast their ballot
3. There is 100% data integrity in collection

Anything less and you're completely full of shiat.


The next time you go to the doctor for a check-up and he orders a blood sample make sure they drain all of the blood out of you and that they test every single drop.  After all, using a representative sample can't possibly give you reliable results, right?

Plus it would have the side benefit of cleaning up the gene pool a wee bit.


Sweet Jesus you guys are missing the point.  There's error in ALL inferential statistics.  That's why we have levels of confidence.  There's no such thing as an error-free test (as in your example).  I was remarking about how if you claim a poll to be "error-free" you're full of BS.

And yes, I do have a formal education in this stuff (MS Ops Research).
 
2013-07-17 03:41:33 PM  

doyner: John the Magnificent: doyner: According to the latest RRR Poll, Ken Cuccinelli leads his opponent Terry McAuliffe by 13.3 points, up from 12 points from RRR's inaugural Poll released May 30th... There is no margin of error, since RRR only produces error free surveys - and unlike PPP or DDD - we poll those actually voting (as we think that's important). Uuuum, the only way to produce an error-free poll is to ensure the following conditions are met:


1.  You ask exactly everyone who will vote on election day; no fewer, no more,
2. They don't lie or change their minds before they cast their ballot
3. There is 100% data integrity in collection

Anything less and you're completely full of shiat.


The next time you go to the doctor for a check-up and he orders a blood sample make sure they drain all of the blood out of you and that they test every single drop.  After all, using a representative sample can't possibly give you reliable results, right?

Plus it would have the side benefit of cleaning up the gene pool a wee bit.

Sweet Jesus you guys are missing the point.  There's error in ALL inferential statistics.  That's why we have levels of confidence.  There's no such thing as an error-free test (as in your example).  I was remarking about how if you claim a poll to be "error-free" you're full of BS.

And yes, I do have a formal education in this stuff (MS Ops Research).


There's virtually no error if you can survey every member of the population though. That completely eliminates sampling, coverage, and non-response errors for sure, and if you conduct the test properly, you can almost entirely get rid of measurement error as well.

/not that this is a feasible approach of course
 
2013-07-17 05:06:06 PM  

Alphax: IIRC, one of his acts in office was to order the state colleges to remove their restrictions that ban discrimination against gay people.


I have trouble keeping track of the minus signs.

/like integration by parts
 
2013-07-17 05:51:48 PM  

Serious Black: There's virtually no error if you can survey every member of the population though.


Which is what I said at Thanksgiving and here we are again.

R.I.F.

J.H.C.
 
2013-07-17 05:53:53 PM  

doyner: Serious Black: There's virtually no error if you can survey every member of the population though.

Which is what I said at Thanksgiving and here we are again.

R.I.F.

J.H.C.


I'm going to take a wild guess that you and I were at different Thanksgiving celebrations last year...
 
2013-07-17 05:54:30 PM  

dookdookdook: IlGreven: ...he does know that PPP was one of the  most accurate polls of the 2012 elections, right?

So then you're admitting they consistently favored democrats.


...but not as much as Ipsos/Reuters...
 
2013-07-18 12:11:24 AM  

Ilmarinen: Alphax: IIRC, one of his acts in office was to order the state colleges to remove their restrictions that ban discrimination against gay people.

I have trouble keeping track of the minus signs.

/like integration by parts


I know, it felt a bit labored to type.  Simplifying.. he was ordering colleges to discriminate against gay people.
 
2013-07-18 01:11:17 AM  

Serious Black: /not that this is a feasible approach of course


If you're lazy maybe.
 
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