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(NBC News)   What's the outlook for this year's hurricane season? Well, according to our weather satellites, the answer is "damned if we know"   (science.nbcnews.com ) divider line
    More: Scary, weather satellites, meteorologists, geostationary orbit, western U.S., named storm, American Meteorological Society, longitudes, geostationary satellite  
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1675 clicks; posted to Geek » on 25 May 2013 at 9:14 AM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-05-25 01:17:58 AM  
GOES East GOES South
 
2013-05-25 08:14:15 AM  
Clearly, there is no trying to reason with hurricane season.

/let the Jimmy Buffet hate flow
 
2013-05-25 09:18:30 AM  
They knew this problem was coming for the last five years...

/putting my shutters up and not taking them down till December.
 
2013-05-25 09:27:31 AM  
It's almost as though the eggheads don't know a damned thing about the climate or weather
 
2013-05-25 09:30:53 AM  
The hurricanes, like the tornados, will strike wherever Obama has his weather machine MAKE them strike.
 
2013-05-25 09:42:36 AM  

Smeggy Smurf: It's almost as though the eggheads don't know a damned thing about the climate or weather


Perhaps so... but at they all have the brainpower to click the link and actually read the article.
 
2013-05-25 09:44:42 AM  

Herr Docktor Heinrich Wisenheimer: Smeggy Smurf: It's almost as though the eggheads don't know a damned thing about the climate or weather

Perhaps so... but at least they all have the brainpower to click the link and actually read the article.


/and to fix typing errors.
 
2013-05-25 09:55:06 AM  
So the decline of our civilization has started.
 
2013-05-25 10:08:52 AM  
having lived in Florida for 35 years i'll say, they have never had a clue. it's always "OMG there will be tons of hurricanes" and then nothing, or "it will be mild" and then we have to start using the greek alphabet because we ran out of names.
 
2013-05-25 10:10:29 AM  
I am going to go out on a limb and predict that 100% of the hurricanes, no matter how many there are, will be linked to climate change, just as if there were never any hurricanes before.
 
2013-05-25 10:14:41 AM  

SevenizGud: I am going to go out on a limb and predict that 100% of the hurricanes, no matter how many there are, will be linked to climate change, just as if there were never any hurricanes before.


And no matter how erratic and extreme weather patterns get, 100% of "conservatives" will deny that humanity's pollution could adversely affect the climate.
 
2013-05-25 10:23:45 AM  

Twist-42: having lived in Florida for 35 years i'll say, they have never had a clue. it's always "OMG there will be tons of hurricanes" and then nothing, or "it will be mild" and then we have to start using the greek alphabet because we ran out of names.


Yeah remember the Charley/Frances/Jeanne summer which was estimated to be "not a very active" hurricane season? Why they even still bother to predict activity for the season overall is beyond me. I mean, if West Africa or the Caribbean have some kind of anomalous weather then go ahead and speculate on storm potential. Other than that just tell us when/where it's currently forming and only if one is forming.
 
2013-05-25 10:24:27 AM  
page dropped my chrome twice, switched to ff.

this is why we can't have nice weather satellites.
 
2013-05-25 10:34:38 AM  
Last year's derecho did more damage and any hurricane and it came out of nowhere.
 
2013-05-25 10:51:17 AM  
They say a lot just to cover their butts.
 
2013-05-25 10:54:06 AM  

way south: They knew this problem was coming for the last five years...


...and have been asking for funding to fix it for seven.
 
2013-05-25 10:55:58 AM  

Herr Docktor Heinrich Wisenheimer: Smeggy Smurf: It's almost as though the eggheads don't know a damned thing about the climate or weather

Perhaps so... but at they all have the brainpower to click the link and actually read the article.


Burn.

As a member of the "eggheads", we've been warning the government about this for years.  There was a congressional meeting to discuss improving NOAA's weather prediction last week, where the key speakers were CEOs of private weather forecasting companies.  Long story short: Scientists do  not look to the US for the future in weather prediction.  Everybody is following Europe's lead on that one.

Operational meteorology in the US is a national embarrassment.
 
2013-05-25 11:01:38 AM  
Developing and deploying a renewed satellite capacity in all fronts (Weather, GPS, surveillance, etc) could put a lot of 'Merkans (well H1B 'Merkans, that is) to work in high paying jobs while ensuring greater chance of 'national security'.  But that would require 'more deficit' spending, and would generate massive profits for the companies involved in the bids.   I don't see any valid compromise happening, accordingly.
 
2013-05-25 11:14:56 AM  
This is kind of a big deal.
 
2013-05-25 12:15:10 PM  

LouDobbsAwaaaay: Herr Docktor Heinrich Wisenheimer: Smeggy Smurf: It's almost as though the eggheads don't know a damned thing about the climate or weather

Perhaps so... but at they all have the brainpower to click the link and actually read the article.

Burn.

As a member of the "eggheads", we've been warning the government about this for years.  There was a congressional meeting to discuss improving NOAA's weather prediction last week, where the key speakers were CEOs of private weather forecasting companies.  Long story short: Scientists do  not look to the US for the future in weather prediction.  Everybody is following Europe's lead on that one.

Operational meteorology in the US is a national embarrassment.


Exactly, so why bother funding the NWS when we can get our information from the Weather Channel?
 
2013-05-25 12:33:43 PM  

Twist-42: having lived in Florida for 35 years i'll say, they have never had a clue. it's always "OMG there will be tons of hurricanes" and then nothing, or "it will be mild" and then we have to start using the greek alphabet because we ran out of names


That's not really true. It is a fun and widespread narrative that they have no clue, but most years they actually do pretty well.
 
2013-05-25 12:39:48 PM  

Hollie Maea: Twist-42: having lived in Florida for 35 years i'll say, they have never had a clue. it's always "OMG there will be tons of hurricanes" and then nothing, or "it will be mild" and then we have to start using the greek alphabet because we ran out of names

That's not really true. It is a fun and widespread narrative that they have no clue, but most years they actually do pretty well.


Laypeople tend to confuse "lots of hurricanes this year" with "lots of hurricanes making landfall in the United States".  They don't personally come into contact with a hurricane in a season, so they assume the season wasn't active.
 
2013-05-25 01:15:13 PM  

LouDobbsAwaaaay: Herr Docktor Heinrich Wisenheimer: Smeggy Smurf: It's almost as though the eggheads don't know a damned thing about the climate or weather

Perhaps so... but at they all have the brainpower to click the link and actually read the article.

Burn.

As a member of the "eggheads", we've been warning the government about this for years.  There was a congressional meeting to discuss improving NOAA's weather prediction last week, where the key speakers were CEOs of private weather forecasting companies.  Long story short: Scientists do  not look to the US for the future in weather prediction.  Everybody is following Europe's lead on that one.

Operational meteorology in the US is a national embarrassment.


Give a storm chaser a boat and stop hating freedom?
 
2013-05-25 01:20:38 PM  
Defund the DEA, the NEA,  and other non-essential gub'mint boondoggles and spend the money on new satellites.  Is simples.
 
2013-05-25 01:36:14 PM  

mark12A: Is simples.


Yes, you is.
 
2013-05-25 01:45:13 PM  
So what's wrong with just flipping a coin to decide if "there will be more hurricanes this year" or "there will be fewer hurricanes this year".
 
2013-05-25 03:43:38 PM  

nytmare: So what's wrong with just flipping a coin to decide if "there will be more hurricanes this year" or "there will be fewer hurricanes this year".




Because meteorologists can do way better than random guessing.

But sure...hurr durr durr scientists don't know anything. Derp derp derp.
 
2013-05-25 03:47:11 PM  

Hollie Maea: But sure...hurr durr durr scientists don't know anything. Derp derp derp.


I think it makes intellecutally insecure people feel better about themselves.
 
2013-05-25 04:50:04 PM  

LouDobbsAwaaaay: Hollie Maea: But sure...hurr durr durr scientists don't know anything. Derp derp derp.

I think it makes intellecutally insecure people feel better about themselves.




Honestly it wouldn't bother me that much, except that it is this kind of thinking that leads to cutting of funding for hurricane monitoring, adoption of policies that ignores the findings of science, and other similar things that fark us all over.
 
2013-05-25 05:39:21 PM  
Speaking of Fark armchair meteorologists, wasn't there there a thread a few weeks back talking about how the tornado season was really tame this year because of drought conditions?
 
2013-05-25 05:49:22 PM  

Hollie Maea: Because meteorologists can do way better than random guessing.


Weather forecasts are generally less than 50% accurate for weather just a day or two away, and that drops dramatically the further ahead you go. You probably could just randomly guess cloudy, rain or sunny and rival that accuracy. It's interesting to observe how people who follow them don't notice how often they're wrong, and continue to trust them as certainties.

Even with massive hurricanes they only recognize them after they've taken form. Do you even need a degree to recognize a hurricane after it's taken form? There isn't anything else which can cause those spirals.
 
2013-05-25 05:58:31 PM  

J. Frank Parnell: Hollie Maea: Because meteorologists can do way better than random guessing.

Weather forecasts are generally less than 50% accurate for weather just a day or two away, and that drops dramatically the further ahead you go. You probably could just randomly guess cloudy, rain or sunny and rival that accuracy. It's interesting to observe how people who follow them don't notice how often they're wrong, and continue to trust them as certainties.

Even with massive hurricanes they only recognize them after they've taken form. Do you even need a degree to recognize a hurricane after it's taken form? There isn't anything else which can cause those spirals.


Somebody doesn't know much about statistics and climatology...
 
2013-05-25 06:10:15 PM  
Yes, but what has the space program done for us lately? Slash that budget.
 
2013-05-25 06:57:10 PM  
Cant afford to replace that!

We have so many wars to fight!
 
2013-05-25 07:05:41 PM  

J. Frank Parnell: Weather forecasts are generally less than 50% accurate for weather just a day or two away


I'm sure you have a source to back that up, right?

/didn't think so
 
2013-05-25 07:15:21 PM  
We have a national Arab and Persian fetish addiction to feed.
 
2013-05-25 07:20:33 PM  

LouDobbsAwaaaay: J. Frank Parnell: Weather forecasts are generally less than 50% accurate for weather just a day or two away

I'm sure you have a source to back that up, right?

/didn't think so


it was 1* too hot or too cold
it rained 23 minutes after they said it would
 
2013-05-25 07:31:09 PM  

J. Frank Parnell: Hollie Maea: Because meteorologists can do way better than random guessing.

Weather forecasts are generally less than 50% accurate for weather just a day or two away, and that drops dramatically the further ahead you go. You probably could just randomly guess cloudy, rain or sunny and rival that accuracy. It's interesting to observe how people who follow them don't notice how often they're wrong, and continue to trust them as certainties.

Even with massive hurricanes they only recognize them after they've taken form. Do you even need a degree to recognize a hurricane after it's taken form? There isn't anything else which can cause those spirals.


You are an idiot. How do I know this? I'm a meteorologist. We the most advanced statistical modeling in the world. Nate Silver follows our lead. 72 hour forecasts are over 90% correct. Do we hit the temp right on the money every time? No. But we get the big stuff right in time, every time. Especially with Hurricanes. NWS had Sandy bullseyed at 96 hours out. The recent Moore tornado? NWS had a watch for that area all day. NWS does a kick ass job and all these commercial weather folks leech off of their data. Without the NWS, there is no Weather channel. www.nws.noaa.gov. See for yourself.
 
2013-05-25 07:36:02 PM  

pornopose: J. Frank Parnell: Hollie Maea: Because meteorologists can do way better than random guessing.

Weather forecasts are generally less than 50% accurate for weather just a day or two away, and that drops dramatically the further ahead you go. You probably could just randomly guess cloudy, rain or sunny and rival that accuracy. It's interesting to observe how people who follow them don't notice how often they're wrong, and continue to trust them as certainties.

Even with massive hurricanes they only recognize them after they've taken form. Do you even need a degree to recognize a hurricane after it's taken form? There isn't anything else which can cause those spirals.

You are an idiot. How do I know this? I'm a meteorologist. We the most advanced statistical modeling in the world. Nate Silver follows our lead. 72 hour forecasts are over 90% correct. Do we hit the temp right on the money every time? No. But we get the big stuff right in time, every time. Especially with Hurricanes. NWS had Sandy bullseyed at 96 hours out. The recent Moore tornado? NWS had a watch for that area all day. NWS does a kick ass job and all these commercial weather folks leech off of their data. Without the NWS, there is no Weather channel. www.nws.noaa.gov. See for yourself.


www.nhc.noaa.gov www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC

educate yourself. American meteorology is still pretty darn good. Especially for TC forecasting.
 
2013-05-25 07:42:14 PM  
And by the way, before any tropical cyclone is formed, an American forecaster has been watching it for at least a day already. If not more. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Hawaii forecasts 90% of the world's TC's. We always see them coming.
 
2013-05-25 09:15:16 PM  

pornopose: We the most advanced statistical modeling in the world.


However, your language has yet to advance far enough to include verbs.
 
2013-05-25 10:31:04 PM  

SevenizGud: pornopose: We the most advanced statistical modeling in the world.

However, your language has yet to advance far enough to include verbs.


It's a Mad Lib!  We [__verb__] the most advanced statistical modeling in the world.

I'm going with "skullfark" personally. :)

There are 3 mountains of 8,000 feet or more in my county.  NOAA issues watches and warnings for the tops of those mountains specifically, and the highest one also has its own dedicated weather center and meteorologists who issue forecast twice every weekday.  Hundreds of people work on that mountain, myself included, and after almost a decade of it, I've learned to take everything they say with more than a few grains of salt, especially anything more than 12 hours out.
 
2013-05-25 10:37:17 PM  

Smeggy Smurf: It's almost as though the eggheads don't know a damned thing about the climate or weather


Ah, the classic "Scientists don't know everything so I'm going to smugly claim they don't know anything."

Let me guess, you have no idea what weather forecasting used to be like even 20 years ago, to say nothing of 50?
 
2013-05-26 01:03:50 AM  

erik-k: Let me guess, you have no idea what weather forecasting used to be like even 20 years ago, to say nothing of 50?


So long as we're having a bit of a Fark meteorologist meet...

celebrating200years.noaa.gov

For point of interest, a "perfect" forecast in 1950 was considered as 70% accurate. We've come a long way, baby.
 
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