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(The New York Times)   Conservatives: I was audited by the IRS because I spoke out against Obama. Nate Silver: Oh hell naw   (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com) divider line 296
    More: Amusing, IRS, conservative Catholics, Current Population Survey, Peggy Noonan, Mitt Romney  
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10472 clicks; posted to Politics » on 17 May 2013 at 7:45 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-05-17 05:17:58 PM
Why the hell would the IRS audit anyone under 25k?
 
jbc [TotalFark]
2013-05-17 05:51:26 PM

PowerSlacker: Why the hell would the IRS audit anyone under 25k?


To see if they actually made less than $25K. Duh.
 
2013-05-17 05:55:17 PM
What did Nate Silver know about Benghazi, and when did he know it?
 
2013-05-17 06:01:13 PM

jbc: PowerSlacker: Why the hell would the IRS audit anyone under 25k?

To see if they actually made less than $25K. Duh.


Is it worth the cost of the audit though?

Go after the bigger fish.
 
2013-05-17 06:53:29 PM

PowerSlacker: jbc: PowerSlacker: Why the hell would the IRS audit anyone under 25k?

To see if they actually made less than $25K. Duh.

Is it worth the cost of the audit though?

Go after the bigger fish.


How do you know if they are bigger fish unless you audit them?
 
2013-05-17 06:59:49 PM

PowerSlacker: Why the hell would the IRS audit anyone under 25k?


Earned Income Credit and Child Tax Credits, which are claimed by siblings, aunts, uncles, etc, when they should be claimed by parents. For a lot of people, that's $4,000 - $6,000 in "free money" from the gubmint, and the numbers are easy to fudge. The worst part was seeing how that money was spent immediately not on the kids, but on TVs, party dresses ($2,000 dresses, FFS!), and other assorted crap.

/did taxes for waitresses, bartenders, strippers, immigrants, etc.
 
2013-05-17 07:38:33 PM

ecmoRandomNumbers: The worst part was seeing how that money was spent immediately not on the kids, but on TVs, party dresses ($2,000 dresses, FFS!), and other assorted crap.


Next they'll be saying that 99% of people have refrigera...oh wait.
 
2013-05-17 07:41:02 PM
SCANDAL!! It's a Goddamned scandal!!!!

Please? Scandal???

/scandal
 
2013-05-17 07:48:14 PM

PowerSlacker: Why the hell would the IRS audit anyone under 25k?


So people should be free to rip of the government / cheat on their taxes if they claim to be poor?
 
2013-05-17 07:48:28 PM
i1162.photobucket.com
 
2013-05-17 07:51:59 PM
I bet that Peggy Noonan is rubbing her ass right now, because she just got spanked.
 
2013-05-17 07:53:38 PM

PowerSlacker: Why the hell would the IRS audit anyone under 25k?


The Earned Income Tax Credit is horribly abused.  It's as big a flag as deducting an in-home office.
 
2013-05-17 07:54:17 PM

Satanic_Hamster: PowerSlacker: Why the hell would the IRS audit anyone under 25k?

So people should be free to rip of the government / cheat on their taxes if they claim to be poor?


If we simply hadn't declared my wife's income, we would have made out like bandits on our tax return. Thousands we would have gotten back. We didn't because had we been audited the IRS would have had butt sex with us.
 
2013-05-17 07:56:00 PM
The second part of the scandal is the auditing of political activists who have opposed the administration," the Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan wrote on Thursday, describing the I.R.S.'s actions as the "worst Washington scandal since Watergate."

Did she not get the Republican talking point that Fast and Furious was worse than Watergate, which pales in comparison to Benghazi which is 10 times worse than Watergate and Iran Contra combined?

You're slipping, Peggy.
 
2013-05-17 07:57:13 PM
Reading through the article, it looks like Nate Silver is assuming what he's trying to prove when he estimates who people voted for...
 
2013-05-17 07:59:19 PM
Yeah, he even says as much:
To be clear, this calculation assumes that individuals' risk of being audited is independent of their political views. In fact, there is no way to know exactly how many supporters of each candidate were chosen for an audit - nor could there be, since individual-level voting records and audit records are private.
 
2013-05-17 08:02:30 PM
Less than 2 months after my dad died when I was 9, the IRS audited my mother. She pleaded for postponement and they said. " we want to send a message that we'll go after everyone."
She is now 86 and has massive panic attacks with anything to do with taxes.
 
2013-05-17 08:04:10 PM

bdub77: The second part of the scandal is the auditing of political activists who have opposed the administration," the Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan wrote on Thursday, describing the I.R.S.'s actions as the "worst Washington scandal since Watergate."

Did she not get the Republican talking point that Fast and Furious was worse than Watergate, which pales in comparison to Benghazi which is 10 times worse than Watergate and Iran Contra combined?

You're slipping, Peggy.


That's like 9/11 times 9/11 plus 1
 
2013-05-17 08:04:18 PM

bdub77: The second part of the scandal is the auditing of political activists who have opposed the administration," the Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan wrote on Thursday, describing the I.R.S.'s actions as the "worst Washington scandal since Watergate."

Did she not get the Republican talking point that Fast and Furious was worse than Watergate, which pales in comparison to Benghazi which is 10 times worse than Watergate and Iran Contra combined?

You're slipping, Peggy.


* Benghazi is "worse than Watergate."

* The IRS controversy carries "echoes of Watergate."

* National security leaks are "worse than Watergate."

* A job offer for former Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.) might be "Obama's Watergate."

* "Fast and Furious" might be "Obama's Watergate."

* Solyndra "makes Watergate look like child's play."

* The White House's relationship with Media Matters might be "Obama's Watergate."


Everything is Watergate.
 
2013-05-17 08:04:20 PM
Yeah, saw the "breaking news" about Anne Hendershott. Apparently she was audited 2 years ago, but since this came out she's making allegations for the first time that they harassed her and made clear they were trying to track those who she may have connections to who might also be conservative. She said the experience was frightening, but I guess it took 2 years of having her own column to realize that she might want to let the world know what happened.

People get audited. You can't say "X got audited, it's a clear example of political targetting!" when there are literally thousands of other political figures with more clout than these "political enemies". The plural of anecdote is not data.
 
2013-05-17 08:05:03 PM
Just for the record, so I have my GOP math straight:

W =Watergate
C = Iran Contra
S = Solyndra
F = Fast and Furious
I = IRS Flagging Possible Tax Evaders
B = Benghazi

C < I < W < S < F < (I+C)*10 < B
 
2013-05-17 08:06:02 PM

PowerSlacker: Why the hell would the IRS audit anyone under 25k?


To see who the local drug dealers are.
 
2013-05-17 08:08:36 PM

bdub77: Just for the record, so I have my GOP math straight:

W =Watergate
C = Iran Contra
S = Solyndra
F = Fast and Furious
I = IRS Flagging Possible Tax Evaders
B = Benghazi

C < I < W < S < F < (I+C)*10 < B


My bad W+C*10. My maths is wrong. :(
 
2013-05-17 08:09:22 PM
The probability of being audited is highest for high-income taxpayers - about 12 percent of individuals who made more than $1 million were audited in 2012

...mostly Romney voters...

 although taxpayers who report little to no income are audited at higher rates than those with average incomes. In fact, about one-third of audits pertained to people who claimed the Earned Income Tax Credit, a benefit for low-income taxpayers.

...mostly Obama voters.

IOW, they aren't targeting you 'cuz you voted for Romney, they're targeting you 'cuz you made most of the money. On the flipside, they aren't targeting you 'cuz you voted for Obama, they're targeting you 'cuz you claimed to make no money.
 
2013-05-17 08:12:44 PM
Nate Silver is bringing down the mathematical BOOM on y'all!
 
2013-05-17 08:14:12 PM

netweavr: Yeah, he even says as much:
To be clear, this calculation assumes that individuals' risk of being audited is independent of their political views. In fact, there is no way to know exactly how many supporters of each candidate were chosen for an audit - nor could there be, since individual-level voting records and audit records are private.


Nate's hypothesis was that one would expect thousands of conservatives audited every year, and therefore finding a few is expected and is not itself evidence of biased audits. Considering that Noonan has absolutely no evidence either, it's unreasonable to think audited conservatives were audited due to their views.
 
vpb [TotalFark]
2013-05-17 08:19:24 PM
So, why isn't Obama pushing back on this?  If it were me I would say, "Yes, these IRS guys should have followed proper procedures, but anyone in their right mind would expect there to be plenty of tax fraud from anti-tax activists.  After all, people who threaten '"second amendment remedies' if they don't get their way aren't going to be put off by tax fraud."
 
2013-05-17 08:19:29 PM

bdub77: bdub77: Just for the record, so I have my GOP math straight:

W =Watergate
C = Iran Contra
S = Solyndra
F = Fast and Furious
I = IRS Flagging Possible Tax Evaders
B = Benghazi

C < I < W < S < F < (I+C)*10 < B

My bad W+C*10. My maths is wrong. :(


Wrong operator. C ⋘ I ⋘ W ⋘ S ⋘ F ⋘ (I+C)¹º ⋘ B
 
2013-05-17 08:20:14 PM
Dr. Sherz was my son's urologist until he started handing out anti obama care literature. He also headed some similar movement of doctors against obamacare. It's funny that he's a urologist and such a prick. One has to wonder why a rich dr. is against what amounts to weak insurance reform. I hope his audit was costly and painful.
 
2013-05-17 08:21:34 PM
 
2013-05-17 08:24:08 PM

PowerSlacker: jbc: PowerSlacker: Why the hell would the IRS audit anyone under 25k?

To see if they actually made less than $25K. Duh.

Is it worth the cost of the audit though?

Go after the bigger fish.


The little fish can't afford good lawyers.
 
2013-05-17 08:24:09 PM
If the IRS actually did target individuals for audits because of their political beliefs, it would be a Watergate-level scandal.  But that didn't happen, so it's not.

I don't share his liberal beliefs, but I'd take Nate Silver over most people who do agree with me politically.  He's smart, empirical, conscientious, and a champion in the fight against irrationality.
 
2013-05-17 08:25:16 PM
I give even less of a fark about this than I did the conservative groups being audited. Political activism isn't charity, and being a right wing asshole means you deserve every bad thing that happens to you. As for Peggy Noonan, I keep wondering what's going to kill her first: Liver disease, from all those decades of hard drinking, or cervical cancer, from all those decades of being the right wingers' go to camp follower.
 
2013-05-17 08:31:42 PM

olomana: Dr. Sherz was my son's urologist until he started handing out anti obama care literature. He also headed some similar movement of doctors against obamacare. It's funny that he's a urologist and such a prick. One has to wonder why a rich dr. is against what amounts to weak insurance reform. I hope his audit was costly and painful.


Because doctors are weird. Plus for decades the AMA has been putting out propaganda about the evils of anything even remotely resembling socialized healthcare, no doubt assisted in such efforts by AHIP. But mostly, doctors are weird.
 
2013-05-17 08:32:37 PM
Great, now every keyboard conservative will blame all their tax problems because they're targets from their derp posts.
 
2013-05-17 08:34:38 PM
Peggy Noonan's 'analysis' is a bunch of hokum?

This is my shocked face. -_-
 
2013-05-17 08:36:14 PM
fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net
 
2013-05-17 08:37:47 PM

Captain Dan: If the IRS actually did target individuals for audits because of their political beliefs, it would be a Watergate-level scandal.  But that didn't happen, so it's not.

I don't share his liberal beliefs, but I'd take Nate Silver over most people who do agree with me politically.  He's smart, empirical, conscientious, and a champion in the fight against irrationality.


How do you know he has liberal beliefs?  I've never noticed anything about his personal beliefs in his work.  I've only seen conclusions based in sound theory, backed up with empirical data (which is why I respect him).  Has he done an interview that I missed?
 
2013-05-17 08:38:30 PM

netweavr: Reading through the article, it looks like Nate Silver is assuming what he's trying to prove when he estimates who people voted for...


"I then estimate the share of the vote in each income bracket that went to Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama based on last year's national exit poll. "

Really?
 
2013-05-17 08:38:33 PM

SN1987a goes boom: Nate Silver is bringing down the mathematical BOOM on y'all!


It's kind of sad that this is considered some kind of unique insight.

Anyone with a HS degree could tell you that if 1% of all returns are audited many liberals and conservatives (and probably some Greens and Libertarians [LOL] and anarchists and probably a Jainist or two) are audited; Nate just provided some numbers here.

He got way too many column inches out of:
47% * 120,000,000 * 1% = 564,000 Romney voters expected to be audited
52% * 120,000,000 * 1% = 624,000 Obama voters expected to be audited

// I'd have added a "fark you, Peggy", just to pad it, but I guess an explanation of statistics may be in order as well
 
2013-05-17 08:38:59 PM
I like Mr. Silver's casual link of "Remember how she thought she knew what she was talking about during the election? How did that turn out?"
 
2013-05-17 08:40:18 PM
The IRS and the Obama administration conspired to willfully withhold all of this this from public knowledge at the height of the election.
That deserves an impeaching at the very least.
 
2013-05-17 08:40:42 PM
Sarah Hall Ingram became Division Commissioner of the Tax Exempt & Government Entities (TE/GE) Division - the head of the division that included the group that targeted Tea Party groups - at the IRS in 2009, a congressional source told Fox News' Mike Emanuel. She was then assigned to head up the implementation of the Affordable Care Act at the IRS in 2010 after the law was enacted.handles health care law.

This woman knows where all the dead bodies are.
 
2013-05-17 08:41:28 PM

smitty04: [fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net image 384x395]


Starting to regret being so adamantly opposed to single-payer, eh? I understand, sucks having the conservative Heritage Foundation plan being implemented, doesn't it?
 
2013-05-17 08:43:48 PM

voran: I like Mr. Silver's casual link of "Remember how she thought she knew what she was talking about during the election? How did that turn out?"


From that link:

" I think it's Romney. I think he's stealing in "like a thief with good tools," in Walker Percy's old words. While everyone is looking at the polls and the storm, Romney's slipping into the presidency. He's quietly rising, and he's been rising for a while.  "

Oh, that is just delicious.
 
2013-05-17 08:45:31 PM

theknuckler_33: smitty04: [fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net image 384x395]

Starting to regret being so adamantly opposed to single-payer, eh? I understand, sucks having the conservative Heritage Foundation plan being implemented, doesn't it?


I have been in the Military so I am well aware of the restrictive rules that go with single payer. No thanks.
 
2013-05-17 08:48:23 PM
So, I keep tabs on my local Tea Party/912 Project group by going to monthly meetings, getting their emails, etc. Tuesday was this month's meeting, and of course, the latest outrage was over the IRS, and how for the second year in a row they were denied tax-exempt status and how they all "need to get used to being persecuted". Every meeting I have been to, was nothing but political. Every email I get (at least two per week) involves their latest local or national political outrage. In the past year, never has their ever been any discussion about charitable work. It's amazing to be in a room full of people who are breaking rules and thus have to pay taxes, but believe that is persecution, and that they are suffering from it.
 
2013-05-17 08:48:45 PM
I love it, the GOP runs its mouth and then *BAM* math!
 
2013-05-17 08:51:41 PM
The IRS doesn't know the political affiliation of individual tp's unless you tell them and they certainly don't keep it in your file (given how old the systems are, I'm sure they couldn't hold the info). Audits happen when the system notices something strange with your filing or sees a pattern that has been used often by tax evaders or fraudulent filers. And there are two kinds. Most people get the short audit (45-180 days). So, conservatives are full of BS. They want to move the discussion from 501C3 (and 4) orgs to individual taxpayers because they think that'll get them points with the public. Peggy Noonan's is, as usual, an raging, blustering idiot.

/Worked at the IRS last year. If people only knew what the IRS is really like, they'd probably calm the hell down.
 
2013-05-17 08:53:35 PM

Cuchulane: Study: Conservatives have larger 'fear center' in brain


thinkprogress.org

A good read on the subject.
 
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