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(Washington Post)   Is Obama helping to create a Tesla bubble? Well, is he?   ( washingtonpost.com) divider line
    More: Scary, President Obama, economic bubble, California Air Resources Board, mass market, market value, Elon Musk  
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9253 clicks; posted to Main » on 17 May 2013 at 9:14 AM (4 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



135 Comments     (+0 »)
 
View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2013-05-17 09:17:31 AM  
Doubt it. The new model S is pretty hype, and far cheaper than previous years.
 
2013-05-17 09:17:35 AM  
This is Obama's Benghazi.
 
2013-05-17 09:17:35 AM  
I misread and thought it said Obama was helping to create a tele tubbie...
 
2013-05-17 09:18:02 AM  
I am *thiiiiis* close to ordering my Performance S. Last hurdle is getting final OK from Mrs.

They are badass machines.
 
2013-05-17 09:18:02 AM  
4.bp.blogspot.com
A what?
 
2013-05-17 09:19:08 AM  
That would require that Obama actually knows what his administration is doing.  Based on recent history I'd say the answer is no.
 
2013-05-17 09:19:09 AM  
What is this, subby, farking red alert?
 
2013-05-17 09:19:22 AM  
Not really a bubble, more of a coil.
 
2013-05-17 09:19:51 AM  

cygnusx13: I am *thiiiiis* close to ordering my Performance S. Last hurdle is getting final OK from Mrs.


Easier to ask for forgiveness than for permission?
=Smidge=
 
2013-05-17 09:24:01 AM  

Nayest: What is this, subby, farking red alert?


Send in that spy with dual handguns and bombs, Obama!
 
2013-05-17 09:24:21 AM  
Well that's it. I'm not buying a Tesla now!

Damn you, Obama!
 
2013-05-17 09:25:37 AM  
Tesla bubble sounds like a weapon in the next Red Alert game. Zap Americas enemies with lightning!

/dnrtfa
 
2013-05-17 09:26:57 AM  
This "article" reads like it was written by someone who got screwed shorting TSLA at $27 a share.
 
2013-05-17 09:27:02 AM  

cygnusx13: I am *thiiiiis* close to ordering my Performance S. Last hurdle is getting final OK from Mrs.

They are badass machines.


My buddy has a deposit down on one...I am really looking forward to driving it.
 
2013-05-17 09:27:55 AM  
Article author is super concerned.
 
2013-05-17 09:28:10 AM  
If I had the scratch I'd give the Model S a serious look.  Seems like a nice car and the range is perfect.
 
2013-05-17 09:29:24 AM  
There is zero evidence to back that up subby, your pointless search for a scandal is waste of energy.
 
2013-05-17 09:30:39 AM  

Evil Mackerel: There is zero evidence to back that up subby, your pointless search for a scandal is waste of energy.


I don't think subby was being serious.

/not subby
 
2013-05-17 09:32:00 AM  

Smidge204: cygnusx13: I am *thiiiiis* close to ordering my Performance S. Last hurdle is getting final OK from Mrs.

Easier to ask for forgiveness than for permission?
=Smidge=


I asked my wife - "I wonder if a divorce comes standard with a Tesla?"

She didn't say yes!! (But she didn't say no, either).
 
2013-05-17 09:33:02 AM  
history's. greatest. monster.
 
2013-05-17 09:34:20 AM  
So the US Government is helping (Subsidizing)  a company  make an $80K car that can only be purchased by say 1% of the US Population. So President Obama is helping the rich buy a car, and I thought he was for the little guy?
 
2013-05-17 09:35:51 AM  
Sigh.

The last time gas got super flipping ridiculous (which was late summer 2005ish if I recall) there was a massive outcry for vehicles that depended less on oil. Over the course of the next four years, gas prices moderated, so of course everyone kind of forgot about it and went back to business as usual, but the Obama administration continued to push to create incentives for auto makers to develop new vehicles.

Existing auto makers, of course, were in bed with the oil companies and refused to do so until that whole bailout thing. Elon Musk had the foresight to look at the incentive programs that were available and use those to offset the R&D work needed to make EV's a reality.

Now its looking like he'll end up having been the visionary and will come out pretty well financially for it. His company has reaped the benefits of selling ZEV credits and developing battery pack technology to license to other auto mfr'ers, yes, the ones who were balking on that for a long time, benefitting by being bed partners with the oil companies and doing their bidding.

When the subsidies go away, Musk will have a company selling very desirable high end vehicles that people will actually pay for, and all of his R&D work to develop them will have been subsidized by the government.

Sounds like shrewd business to me and not something to be butthurted about.
 
2013-05-17 09:37:28 AM  

praymantis: So the US Government is helping (Subsidizing)  a company  make an $80K car that can only be purchased by say 1% of the US Population. So President Obama is helping the rich buy a car, and I thought he was for the little guy?


Doesn't mean he's 'against' the '1%'.

Subsidizing electric cars is a good thing, and as I remember correctly, gas-fueled cars started off as being a toy of the 1%, too.
 
2013-05-17 09:37:29 AM  
Why would anybody have a problem with subsidizing cars for the wealthy? The success will trickle down.
 
2013-05-17 09:37:54 AM  

praymantis: So the US Government is helping (Subsidizing)  a company  make an $80K car that can only be purchased by say 1% of the US Population. So President Obama is helping the rich buy a car, and I thought he was for the little guy?


Did you really think that EV's were going to come in on the low end of the price spectrum? If so I have some property on Mars for sale...
 
2013-05-17 09:38:38 AM  

Cletus C.: Why would anybody have a problem with subsidizing cars for the wealthy? The success will trickle down.


Henry Ford's success says you're right, even if you're trying to be sarcastic.
 
2013-05-17 09:38:59 AM  
FTA: Tesla sold 4,900 cars and, not counting the sale of regulatory credits under California law, lost $53 million, or more than $10,000 per car.

Wow, Tesla is making a profit on every car it sells, unfortunately it has high operating cost as well. Had Tesla sold 0 cars it would have lost infinity money on each car.
 
2013-05-17 09:41:21 AM  
All electric vehicle technology gets pushed ahead a couple years and when the bubble pops a bunch of filthy hippies get left holding the bag.

Downside?
 
2013-05-17 09:44:01 AM  

praymantis: So the US Government is helping (Subsidizing)  a company  make an $80K car that can only be purchased by say 1% of the US Population. So President Obama is helping the rich buy a car, and I thought he was for the little guy?


It is definitely an expensive car, but this is a "top 10%" car, not " top 1%"
 
2013-05-17 09:44:33 AM  
Obama is no modern day cowboy...
 
2013-05-17 09:45:41 AM  

Ned Stark: All electric vehicle technology gets pushed ahead a couple years and when the bubble pops a bunch of filthy hippies get left holding the bag.

Downside?


Run along and go short some Tesla stock. I'm sure it will work out as well for you as it did for the guy from last week's thread.
 
2013-05-17 09:45:48 AM  
Tesla at best will be a niche car maker for the wealthy like Lotus or Aston Martin. As rich as a Musk is the amount of capital you need to sell multiple models is astounding (R&D, Tooling, Marketing, employee costs, franchise laws etc.) The only way they become a real player in the car industry is if gas heads up to say $10-$15 per gallon. Based on the amount of oil reserves that have been recently I doubt that will happen anytime soon. With that said I am glad they had a profit last quarter but will the trend continue? Any ones guess!
 
2013-05-17 09:46:40 AM  
Wait this this hits the $30,000 price point.  The price of oil will drop dramatically when their monopoly of the auto market ends.
 
2013-05-17 09:46:58 AM  
I certainly hope not. It's a great hometown company pushing the envelope of sorely-needed technology. I root hard for these guys.
 
2013-05-17 09:47:26 AM  

praymantis: Tesla at best will be a niche car maker for the wealthy like Lotus or Aston Martin. As rich as a Musk is the amount of capital you need to sell multiple models is astounding (R&D, Tooling, Marketing, employee costs, franchise laws etc.) The only way they become a real player in the car industry is if gas heads up to say $10-$15 per gallon. Based on the amount of oil reserves that have been recently I doubt that will happen anytime soon. With that said I am glad they had a profit last quarter but will the trend continue? Any ones guess!


You haven't researched their business plan at all, have you?
 
2013-05-17 09:47:29 AM  

praymantis: Tesla at best will be a niche car maker for the wealthy like Lotus or Aston Martin. As rich as a Musk is the amount of capital you need to sell multiple models is astounding (R&D, Tooling, Marketing, employee costs, franchise laws etc.) The only way they become a real player in the car industry is if gas heads up to say $10-$15 per gallon. Based on the amount of oil reserves that have been

found recently I doubt that will happen anytime soon. With that said I am glad they had a profit last quarter but will the trend continue? Any ones guess!
 
2013-05-17 09:47:39 AM  
Something about this seems like a house of cards.
 
2013-05-17 09:48:42 AM  

Hollie Maea: praymantis: So the US Government is helping (Subsidizing)  a company  make an $80K car that can only be purchased by say 1% of the US Population. So President Obama is helping the rich buy a car, and I thought he was for the little guy?

It is definitely an expensive car, but this is a "top 10%" car, not " top 1%"


Hush you, don't let reality get in the way of his roll

/germans...pearl harbor
 
2013-05-17 09:51:59 AM  
Tesla Bubble sounds like a steampunk spaceship.
 
2013-05-17 09:52:38 AM  

cchris_39: Something about this seems like a house of cards.


betting short, are ya?
 
2013-05-17 09:52:52 AM  

asmodeus224: Hollie Maea: praymantis: So the US Government is helping (Subsidizing)  a company  make an $80K car that can only be purchased by say 1% of the US Population. So President Obama is helping the rich buy a car, and I thought he was for the little guy?

It is definitely an expensive car, but this is a "top 10%" car, not " top 1%"

Hush you, don't let reality get in the way of his roll

/germans...pearl harbor


Yes 10% of the population may be able to afford one but there are some fantastic cars in that price range. It is a competitive market.
 
2013-05-17 09:54:52 AM  
I already have an all electric car, and it's fantastic. Every time I plug it in I can give a finger to OPEC. The cost savings on gas alone make it worth it. There is little doubt when my lease is up, I will seriously consider a Tesla for the range and performance.
 
2013-05-17 09:54:54 AM  

Hollie Maea: praymantis: Tesla at best will be a niche car maker for the wealthy like Lotus or Aston Martin. As rich as a Musk is the amount of capital you need to sell multiple models is astounding (R&D, Tooling, Marketing, employee costs, franchise laws etc.) The only way they become a real player in the car industry is if gas heads up to say $10-$15 per gallon. Based on the amount of oil reserves that have been recently I doubt that will happen anytime soon. With that said I am glad they had a profit last quarter but will the trend continue? Any ones guess!

You haven't researched their business plan at all, have you?


There are plenty of well written business plans out there of now defunct companies. I would rather invest in Ford than Tesla the dividend is way better.
 
2013-05-17 09:57:00 AM  

cygnusx13: I am *thiiiiis* close to ordering my Performance S. Last hurdle is getting final OK from Mrs.

They are badass machines.


You've got MY ok. I've wanted a Tesla since I first saw the Roadster. I'm hooked. There's a Tesla "dealer" in the mall here next to my office; they see me coming and collectively sigh... I smudge the wax job.
/if we buy it, **I'm** driving it and the hubby can stick with his Matrix.
//Matrix permanently smells like post-soccer BO
 
2013-05-17 09:57:12 AM  
My boss has a Model S.  Not only is it a great electric car, it's a great car period.  You have companies like Coda and FIsker that concentrate on the drivetrain and make the rest of the car as an afterthought  and look at where they are at now.  If Tesla can pull off the $30k car they are developing they will be rolling in money.
 
2013-05-17 09:58:48 AM  

Evil Mackerel: There is zero evidence to back that up subby, your pointless search for a scandal is waste of energy.


Well Obama needs to hurry up and sell weapons to Iran then. Why is he so inconsiderate?
 
2013-05-17 09:59:39 AM  

Ordinary Genius: Every time I plug it in I can give a finger to OPEC


Uh.... Hang on, are you saying this because you don't have to pay for gasoline or because you think the electricity that comes out of your wall is provided by magic elves?
 
2013-05-17 10:00:50 AM  

jelloslug: If Tesla can pull off the $30k car they are developing they will be rolling in money.


That is the KEY right there if they can develop a car for that price and gives you a range of 300 miles it will be a great success. If they can then some other large corporation(GM,Ford,Toyota) will just buy them which is great for the investors.
 
2013-05-17 10:01:26 AM  

praymantis: Tesla at best will be a niche car maker for the wealthy like Lotus or Aston Martin.


It is a Lotus.
 
2013-05-17 10:02:55 AM  

praymantis: jelloslug: If Tesla can pull off the $30k car they are developing they will be rolling in money.

That is the KEY right there if they can develop a car for that price and gives you a range of 300 miles it will be a great success. If they can then some other large corporation(GM,Ford,Toyota) will just buy them which is great for the investors.


They are already in a joint venture with Toyota (they make the drivetrain for the Rav-4 EV) so they are already in a good position.
 
2013-05-17 10:03:21 AM  

jelloslug: If Tesla can pull off the $30k car they are developing they will be rolling in money.


Good luck. It took Toyota years to manage that with the Prius, and that was with a huge amount of government help. GM hasn't managed it yet with the Volt (still a loss-leader). And both of them could exploit component part economies of scale.
 
2013-05-17 10:03:44 AM  

This text is now purple: praymantis: Tesla at best will be a niche car maker for the wealthy like Lotus or Aston Martin.

It is a Lotus.


The roadster was a Lotus.  The Model S is of their own design.
 
2013-05-17 10:04:24 AM  

Kirzania: Ordinary Genius: Every time I plug it in I can give a finger to OPEC

Uh.... Hang on, are you saying this because you don't have to pay for gasoline or because you think the electricity that comes out of your wall is provided by magic elves?


It may not be where you live, but my electric power comes from U.S. coal. So, yes, I can confidently say I can give a finger to OPEC, since I am not using foreign oil to power my vehicle.
 
2013-05-17 10:05:28 AM  
Considering Tesla is getting ready to pay us back, I'd say "no".   Source

As for it being a rich man's car -- while this is true today, Tesla is also licensing its technology to other car manufacturers, so progress is being made to bring it to a mass market.   Source
 
2013-05-17 10:06:06 AM  
The garage to my local grocery installed about 5 of those plugin stations a year ago. They've gone from standing empty, to being occasionally occupied, to being mostly occupied, to a warzone.  Amusing to watch, but it's just a matter of time before a Tesla owner nails a kid drag-racing to the one of the spots. Meanwhile requests for bike racks at the store have been rejected for, I don't know, the last five or six years.
 
2013-05-17 10:07:17 AM  

praymantis: Hollie Maea: praymantis: Tesla at best will be a niche car maker for the wealthy like Lotus or Aston Martin. As rich as a Musk is the amount of capital you need to sell multiple models is astounding (R&D, Tooling, Marketing, employee costs, franchise laws etc.) The only way they become a real player in the car industry is if gas heads up to say $10-$15 per gallon. Based on the amount of oil reserves that have been recently I doubt that will happen anytime soon. With that said I am glad they had a profit last quarter but will the trend continue? Any ones guess!

You haven't researched their business plan at all, have you?

There are plenty of well written business plans out there of now defunct companies. I would rather invest in Ford than Tesla the dividend is way better.


Someone can't see the forest for the trees.
 
2013-05-17 10:09:04 AM  

praymantis: Yes 10% of the population may be able to afford one but there are some fantastic cars in that price range. It is a competitive market.


And according to numerous reviews, the Model S is the best of the lot.
 
2013-05-17 10:19:51 AM  

Ordinary Genius: It may not be where you live, but my electric power comes from U.S. coal. So, yes, I can confidently say I can give a finger to OPEC, since I am not using foreign oil to power my vehicle.


Just wanted to be sure you weren't one of those "I'm SAVING THE WORLD 'cause my electric car doesn't use gasoline!" Just glad you know where you power comes from...
Though, technically, since nat gas is so much cheaper than coal, most of those coal plants aren't necessarily burning the coal. They will stockpile the coal in the yard and heat the boilers by never turning off the nat gas pilots.
www.promoboxx.com
 
2013-05-17 10:25:01 AM  
I have mixed feeling about this.  On one hand, it's hard to argue with Tesla's execution.  The Model S is probably one of the greatest and most innovative cars ever made.  The relatively simple, proven and elegant technology that drives it is easily extensible and can be used in a wide variety of cars in the near future.  It would be easy to hate Tesla if the car sucked but it simply doesn't.  On the other hand I'm not happy about my tax dollars going to help a billionaire get even richer selling luxury products to other rich guys.  There are undoubtedly many, many better ways to improve the world than propping up a niche manufacturer of ~$100K electric cars.
 
2013-05-17 10:30:16 AM  
Soon:
cdn2.spong.com

/Tesla coil, prism tower, whatever.
 
2013-05-17 10:31:00 AM  

Torgo: I have mixed feeling about this.  On one hand, it's hard to argue with Tesla's execution.  The Model S is probably one of the greatest and most innovative cars ever made.  The relatively simple, proven and elegant technology that drives it is easily extensible and can be used in a wide variety of cars in the near future.  It would be easy to hate Tesla if the car sucked but it simply doesn't.  On the other hand I'm not happy about my tax dollars going to help a billionaire get even richer selling luxury products to other rich guys.  There are undoubtedly many, many better ways to improve the world than propping up a niche manufacturer of ~$100K electric cars.


THIS
 
2013-05-17 10:36:57 AM  

Torgo: I have mixed feeling about this.  On one hand, it's hard to argue with Tesla's execution.  The Model S is probably one of the greatest and most innovative cars ever made.  The relatively simple, proven and elegant technology that drives it is easily extensible and can be used in a wide variety of cars in the near future.  It would be easy to hate Tesla if the car sucked but it simply doesn't.  On the other hand I'm not happy about my tax dollars going to help a billionaire get even richer selling luxury products to other rich guys.  There are undoubtedly many, many better ways to improve the world than propping up a niche manufacturer of ~$100K electric cars.


The idea(and Tesla's business model) is to develop the technology for the more expensive sports cars which can absorb the costs more easily, then to work their way down to more practical and cheaper cars once the brand is established and the technology is proven.
 
2013-05-17 10:40:40 AM  

Kirzania: Ordinary Genius: It may not be where you live, but my electric power comes from U.S. coal. So, yes, I can confidently say I can give a finger to OPEC, since I am not using foreign oil to power my vehicle.

Just wanted to be sure you weren't one of those "I'm SAVING THE WORLD 'cause my electric car doesn't use gasoline!" Just glad you know where you power comes from...
Though, technically, since nat gas is so much cheaper than coal, most of those coal plants aren't necessarily burning the coal. They will stockpile the coal in the yard and heat the boilers by never turning off the nat gas pilots.


Nah, i don't care about the environment. I have an electric vehicle because it costs me less For payments on the vehicle, the electricity to power it, and the insurance on it, than it cost me per month In gasoline for a regular vehicle.
 
2013-05-17 10:48:11 AM  

Voiceofreason01: The idea(and Tesla's business model) is to develop the technology for the more expensive sports cars which can absorb the costs more easily, then to work their way down to more practical and cheaper cars once the brand is established and the technology is proven.


Right.  As I said above, I get that.  Hopefully this investment will pay off with bigger gains than a few thousand pricey cars zipping around the nicer parts of LA.  However, that doesn't change the situation on the ground right now.  Also, as a dyed-in-the-wool libertarian, I get a little itchy whenever something only can happen because the goverment plows taxpayer money into it.  As I said, it's possible and even likely that this may result in some truly disruptive (in a good way) changes to the car industry in the near future, but there are lots of similarly good ideas out there that aren't getting similar funding.

Also, small point, but the Model S (the only car the company currently makes) and upcoming Model X are both not sports cars.
 
2013-05-17 10:49:39 AM  

Goodbooger: Wait this this hits the $30,000 price point.  The price of oil will drop dramatically when their monopoly of the auto market ends.


And electrical prices will soar as we have brownouts and 40 year old infrastructure all over the grid overheats and fails. bringing down entire sections of the national grid, like when the entire northeast went dark because 2 transmission lines failed.

/I for one look forward to rolling brown outs.
 
2013-05-17 10:52:36 AM  

Kirzania: I'm SAVING THE WORLD 'cause my electric car doesn't use gasoline!"


Ah, yes, but some of us are are helping to save the world (and our pocketbooks) because we are driving electric cars that don't use gasoline, and aren't indirectly powered by any form of fossil fuel or nuclear power . . .
 
2013-05-17 10:52:38 AM  

Ordinary Genius: Nah, i don't care about the environment. I have an electric vehicle because it costs me less For payments on the vehicle, the electricity to power it, and the insurance on it, than it cost me per month In gasoline for a regular vehicle.


Fark me, you must be the only one to employ logic in your motives for buying electric. Here's a cookie!
Everyone I know (of) buys electric to "save" the environment. It angers me.
 
2013-05-17 10:55:19 AM  

Kirzania: cygnusx13: I am *thiiiiis* close to ordering my Performance S. Last hurdle is getting final OK from Mrs.

They are badass machines.

You've got MY ok. I've wanted a Tesla since I first saw the Roadster. I'm hooked. There's a Tesla "dealer" in the mall here next to my office; they see me coming and collectively sigh... I smudge the wax job.
/if we buy it, **I'm** driving it and the hubby can stick with his Matrix.
//Matrix permanently smells like post-soccer BO


Are you in Scottsdale?
 
2013-05-17 10:57:32 AM  

fluffy2097: And electrical prices will soar as we have brownouts and 40 year old infrastructure all over the grid overheats and fails. bringing down entire sections of the national grid, like when the entire northeast went dark because 2 transmission lines failed.


There's always other reasons for brown-outs, but ... To your point, it's things like Houze which interest me greatly. Run power cell off nat gas, which we have in spades, sell power back to the grid. Nat gas goes up, so does your sale price back to the grid. I'm sure there are plenty of kinks with this but the idea is intriguing and would, if employed in great numbers, negate the grid deficit.
 
2013-05-17 10:59:38 AM  

cygnusx13: Are you in Scottsdale?


That depends, if you buy it, are you gonna share? I also require the Tech Package.
 
2013-05-17 11:03:20 AM  
Torgo:
Right.  As I said above, I get that.  Hopefully this investment will pay off with bigger gains than a few thousand pricey cars zipping around the nicer parts of LA.  However, that doesn't change the situation on the ground right now.  Also, as a dyed-in-the-wool libertarian, I get a little itchy whenever something only can happen because the goverment plows taxpayer money into it.....

Ah, I missed your earlier post. Government investment can be a good thing when it spurs innovation or helps bring products to market when development costs would otherwise be too high. I am not a libertarian but I do share your concerns that either Tesla will fold before they get to the point of making more practical cars or that even if Tesla survives that part of their business model never happens and they just sit on the patents.
 
2013-05-17 11:09:51 AM  

Torgo: Voiceofreason01: The idea(and Tesla's business model) is to develop the technology for the more expensive sports cars which can absorb the costs more easily, then to work their way down to more practical and cheaper cars once the brand is established and the technology is proven.

Right.  As I said above, I get that.  Hopefully this investment will pay off with bigger gains than a few thousand pricey cars zipping around the nicer parts of LA.  However, that doesn't change the situation on the ground right now.  Also, as a dyed-in-the-wool libertarian, I get a little itchy whenever something only can happen because the goverment plows taxpayer money into it.  As I said, it's possible and even likely that this may result in some truly disruptive (in a good way) changes to the car industry in the near future, but there are lots of similarly good ideas out there that aren't getting similar funding.

Also, small point, but the Model S (the only car the company currently makes) and upcoming Model X are both not sports cars.


NASA must drive you insane, then.
 
2013-05-17 11:12:23 AM  
Infernalist:
NASA must drive you insane, then.

I was going to let it go that op seems to have "I don't like rich people" and "libertarian" confused, but since you brought it up....
 
2013-05-17 11:14:16 AM  

fluffy2097: Goodbooger: Wait this this hits the $30,000 price point.  The price of oil will drop dramatically when their monopoly of the auto market ends.

And electrical prices will soar as we have brownouts and 40 year old infrastructure all over the grid overheats and fails. bringing down entire sections of the national grid, like when the entire northeast went dark because 2 transmission lines failed.

/I for one look forward to rolling brown outs.


The 10kW connector gives you 31 miles of driving for every hour of charging. This is about twice the amount of electricity as your clothes dryer uses. Few people are going to need to charge all 300 miles every night. Most people drive about 30 miles a day. So a few extra loads of laundry in power. In spread out over a 10 hour night, 1kw is like having 10 light old style 100 watt bulbs left on all night.  In general most of our power usage is during the day and electrical companies as ecstatic that we are finding new ways to get rid of their excess night loads. Eventually yes, we may need to increase capacity by a small amount, but possibly not.
 
2013-05-17 11:18:10 AM  

MindStalker: fluffy2097: Goodbooger: Wait this this hits the $30,000 price point.  The price of oil will drop dramatically when their monopoly of the auto market ends.

And electrical prices will soar as we have brownouts and 40 year old infrastructure all over the grid overheats and fails. bringing down entire sections of the national grid, like when the entire northeast went dark because 2 transmission lines failed.

/I for one look forward to rolling brown outs.

The 10kW connector gives you 31 miles of driving for every hour of charging. This is about twice the amount of electricity as your clothes dryer uses. Few people are going to need to charge all 300 miles every night. Most people drive about 30 miles a day. So a few extra loads of laundry in power. In spread out over a 10 hour night, 1kw is like having 10 light old style 100 watt bulbs left on all night.  In general most of our power usage is during the day and electrical companies as ecstatic that we are finding new ways to get rid of their excess night loads. Eventually yes, we may need to increase capacity by a small amount, but possibly not.


You are hilariously dumb and don't understand the concept of electrical loads.
 
2013-05-17 11:21:32 AM  

Kirzania: fluffy2097: And electrical prices will soar as we have brownouts and 40 year old infrastructure all over the grid overheats and fails. bringing down entire sections of the national grid, like when the entire northeast went dark because 2 transmission lines failed.

There's always other reasons for brown-outs, but ... To your point, it's things like Houze which interest me greatly. Run power cell off nat gas, which we have in spades, sell power back to the grid. Nat gas goes up, so does your sale price back to the grid. I'm sure there are plenty of kinks with this but the idea is intriguing and would, if employed in great numbers, negate the grid deficit.


Fail fail fail fail.

The grid deficit is not only a lack of power plants. It's a lack of transmission lines. Which is why the failure of only 2 transmission lines can knock out the power for thousands and thousands of square miles around the fault.  That's what happened when the entire northeast grid went dark.

Pumping more power onto transmission lines is only going to exacerbate the problem. It's pushing more and more energy around the grid thats already overloaded.

/so are you going to allow a high voltage line to pass over your house? because we need new ones and we cant find the long tracts of land to put them down anymore thanks to not in my back yard.
 
2013-05-17 11:21:37 AM  

Kirzania: Ordinary Genius: Every time I plug it in I can give a finger to OPEC

Uh.... Hang on, are you saying this because you don't have to pay for gasoline or because you think the electricity that comes out of your wall is provided by magic elves?


Do you think it comes from oil-fired plants?
 
2013-05-17 11:22:27 AM  

fluffy2097: MindStalker: fluffy2097: Goodbooger: Wait this this hits the $30,000 price point.  The price of oil will drop dramatically when their monopoly of the auto market ends.

And electrical prices will soar as we have brownouts and 40 year old infrastructure all over the grid overheats and fails. bringing down entire sections of the national grid, like when the entire northeast went dark because 2 transmission lines failed.

/I for one look forward to rolling brown outs.

The 10kW connector gives you 31 miles of driving for every hour of charging. This is about twice the amount of electricity as your clothes dryer uses. Few people are going to need to charge all 300 miles every night. Most people drive about 30 miles a day. So a few extra loads of laundry in power. In spread out over a 10 hour night, 1kw is like having 10 light old style 100 watt bulbs left on all night.  In general most of our power usage is during the day and electrical companies as ecstatic that we are finding new ways to get rid of their excess night loads. Eventually yes, we may need to increase capacity by a small amount, but possibly not.

You are hilariously dumb and don't understand the concept of electrical loads.


Uh...Mindstalker is basically right. Most people will do their charging at night during off-peak hours. It'll be fine.
 
2013-05-17 11:29:42 AM  

Voiceofreason01: You are hilariously dumb and don't understand the concept of electrical loads.

Uh...Mindstalker is basically right. Most people will do their charging at night during off-peak hours. It'll be fine.


And yes, I know a 10kW charger for an hour isn't the same as 1kW over 10 hours, though if the grid gets smart and spreads out who charges when (1/10th of the people charging each hour), to the electrical company its the same thing as all 10 people using 1kW over those 10 hours.
 
2013-05-17 11:30:33 AM  

fluffy2097: Goodbooger: Wait this this hits the $30,000 price point.  The price of oil will drop dramatically when their monopoly of the auto market ends.

And electrical prices will soar as we have brownouts and 40 year old infrastructure all over the grid overheats and fails. bringing down entire sections of the national grid, like when the entire northeast went dark because 2 transmission lines failed.

/I for one look forward to rolling brown outs.


No, but let's pretend that's true.

Hint: Look up what grid capacity utilization is during night hours, which is when most EVs charge.
 
2013-05-17 11:35:31 AM  

Kirzania: Everyone I know (of) buys electric to "save" the environment. It angers me.


Christ, really?  That angers you? WTF?
 
2013-05-17 11:36:15 AM  

Kirzania: cygnusx13: Are you in Scottsdale?

That depends, if you buy it, are you gonna share? I also require the Tech Package.


NOT having the tech package is like having a steak without a good red wine. Of course that will be in! In fact, I haven't been able to build one for
 
2013-05-17 11:41:53 AM  
Article seems to have glossed over the revenue Tesla makes with its "partnerships" with Toyota and Mercedes.
 
2013-05-17 11:45:29 AM  

fluffy2097: The grid deficit is not only a lack of power plants. It's a lack of transmission lines. Which is why the failure of only 2 transmission lines can knock out the power for thousands and thousands of square miles around the fault. That's what happened when the entire northeast grid went dark.

Pumping more power onto transmission lines is only going to exacerbate the problem. It's pushing more and more energy around the grid thats already overloaded.


Ok, well... All it takes is one squirrel to make a power plant operator's life miserable. Or multiple raccoon families. Whatever. When you sell back to the grid, that's less plants are having to push out onto the grid. It's not like a struggle for "direction." Power plants only generate power when the grid demands it. If there are power producers (i.e.: Houze cells) providing power to the grid during peak hours, that power plant operator isn't going to sit there and say "SHE CANNA TAKE ANY MORE CAP'N" and hope to God he doesn't blow anything up by continuing to fire more coal/gas/comb; he will drop gen off.

Also, this:

Hollie Maea: Hint: Look up what grid capacity utilization is during night hours, which is when most EVs charge.

 
2013-05-17 11:48:02 AM  
I saw a "Bin Laden is Dead and GM is alive" bumper sticker on a Mitsubishi.

I know.
 
2013-05-17 11:48:13 AM  

jelloslug: This text is now purple: praymantis: Tesla at best will be a niche car maker for the wealthy like Lotus or Aston Martin.

It is a Lotus.

The roadster was a Lotus.  The Model S is of their own design.


The Roadster was designed by Tesla, using a licensed variant of a Lotus platform.  Tesla designed the chassis, the bodywork, and most of the drivetrain.  Lotus simply built the gliders under contract according to Tesla's specs.
 
2013-05-17 11:50:58 AM  

Hollie Maea: Kirzania: Everyone I know (of) buys electric to "save" the environment. It angers me.

Christ, really?  That angers you? WTF?


It's like establishments using hand-dryers instead of providing paper towels and say they're doing it to "save energy" or trees or whatever. The electricity out of the wall ain't free; you're just deferring where the waste/environment-killing is happening. I'm all for saving the environment or keeping it clean or whatever, don't get me wrong. But you can't swap out one for the other and say how you're doing such good when, in reality, you didn't change anything. It's all perception/marketing.
Like Green Energy.
//God, don't even get me started.
 
2013-05-17 11:59:24 AM  

Kirzania: Hollie Maea: Kirzania: Everyone I know (of) buys electric to "save" the environment. It angers me.

Christ, really?  That angers you? WTF?

It's like establishments using hand-dryers instead of providing paper towels and say they're doing it to "save energy" or trees or whatever. The electricity out of the wall ain't free; you're just deferring where the waste/environment-killing is happening. I'm all for saving the environment or keeping it clean or whatever, don't get me wrong. But you can't swap out one for the other and say how you're doing such good when, in reality, you didn't change anything. It's all perception/marketing.
Like Green Energy.
//God, don't even get me started.


If you are going to bother being outraged about what other people are doing, you should at least run the numbers.

Or, you know, don't waste your life worrying about other people's reasons for doing things that don't really affect you at all.
 
2013-05-17 12:00:47 PM  

Kirzania: But you can't swap out one for the other and say how you're doing such good when, in reality, you didn't change anything. It's all perception/marketing.


It's not a 1:1 swap. A power plant is a much more efficient user of natural resources than your car.
 
2013-05-17 12:12:34 PM  

Johnsnownw: Article seems to have glossed over the revenue Tesla makes with its "partnerships" with Toyota and Mercedes.


Yes, how dare Tesla negate externalities creates by other car manufacturers, and get paid for doing so. That's unsound economics.. Oh I mean, that recommended by most economist.
 
2013-05-17 12:18:57 PM  

BigNumber12: A power plant is a much more efficient user of natural resources than your car.


Not to mention that refining gasoline takes electricity as well.  A gallon of gas takes about 5kWh to refine, so an EV can go about 15 miles just on the ELECTRICITY that a gas powered car uses per gallon.
 
2013-05-17 12:23:44 PM  
is a Tesla bubble anything like a Faraday cage?
 
2013-05-17 12:45:44 PM  

Kirzania: Hollie Maea: Kirzania: Everyone I know (of) buys electric to "save" the environment. It angers me.

Christ, really?  That angers you? WTF?

It's like establishments using hand-dryers instead of providing paper towels and say they're doing it to "save energy" or trees or whatever. The electricity out of the wall ain't free; you're just deferring where the waste/environment-killing is happening. I'm all for saving the environment or keeping it clean or whatever, don't get me wrong. But you can't swap out one for the other and say how you're doing such good when, in reality, you didn't change anything. It's all perception/marketing.
Like Green Energy.
//God, don't even get me started.


It's not all marketing.  There are measurable differences in environmental impact between paper towels and electric dryers, just like there are between gas-powered and electric cars.  And while most electric dryers do such a bad job (the Dyson Airblade being a notable exception) that paper towels might be preferred in spite of higher environmental impact, the Tesla Model S doesn't have that problem--it's an incredibly well-designed vehicle that appeals to just about anyone who might have bought a gasoline-powered car at the same price point, and it happens to use far less energy by any measure than a gasoline-powered car.
 
2013-05-17 12:56:49 PM  

Hollie Maea: Hint: Look up what grid capacity utilization is during night hours, which is when most EVs charge.


Hint:  I already have. You're the one looking a fool for thinking that utilization drops at night.

Now please, pull up a website from some utility coop in iowa that charges different amounts for power at different times of day, and say that price has something to do with capacity, while looking at your shiatty broadband internet connection that costs far more then it ever should.
 
2013-05-17 01:14:33 PM  
Is Obama building a wall all the way to the enemy's base, and putting a Tesla Cannon at the end of it?  Well, is he?
 
2013-05-17 01:16:11 PM  
Is Boehner filling APCs full of Engineers, rushing them into the enemy's base, unloading them, taking over his buildings, and selling them?  Well, is he?
 
2013-05-17 01:18:06 PM  

fluffy2097: Hollie Maea: Hint: Look up what grid capacity utilization is during night hours, which is when most EVs charge.

Hint:  I already have. You're the one looking a fool for thinking that utilization drops at night.

Now please, pull up a website from some utility coop in iowa that charges different amounts for power at different times of day, and say that price has something to do with capacity, while looking at your shiatty broadband internet connection that costs far more then it ever should.


While this isn't quite an Iowa Co-op - here's the live grid feed from the Bonneville Power Administration (serving all of the states of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and parts of Montana & Utah). You can clearly see regional loads, the red line, dropping at night:

transmission.bpa.gov
/it's also interesting to see that our region's thermal plant output (mostly coal and nuclear) is almost zero right now.
 
2013-05-17 01:29:45 PM  
Now where is total transmission capacity on your fancy chart there?  How much higher can that red line go without shiat melting?

Amazing how hydro power is producing over double the energy required for the load. Care to explain that, given that electricity cannot be stored on the grid?

/Oh right, all that power is being transmitted somewhere else...
//Oh, what's the harm in increasing the load on 4 decade old transmission lines. They've lasted this long. They'll keep lasting.
 
2013-05-17 01:48:38 PM  

fluffy2097: You're the one looking a fool for thinking that utilization drops at night.


Backs away slowly.

Yeah, you really need to stop talking now.
 
2013-05-17 01:57:00 PM  
obama hussein is part of the rebel alliance and a traitor,
but mostly a traitor.
like to see the motherfarker crucified
 
2013-05-17 02:04:07 PM  

fluffy2097: Now where is total transmission capacity on your fancy chart there?  How much higher can that red line go without shiat melting?

Amazing how hydro power is producing over double the energy required for the load. Care to explain that, given that electricity cannot be stored on the grid?

/Oh right, all that power is being transmitted somewhere else...
//Oh, what's the harm in increasing the load on 4 decade old transmission lines. They've lasted this long. They'll keep lasting.


On average, the Pacific NW region generates 3x's the energy we consume. During the summer, that excess is shipped to California (at great profit to our region & ratepayers) or to Canada during the winter.

As you can see, we can handle massive amounts of regional electrical consumption - if we want to. And you obviously see that our region's load dips considerably at night (espcially as our thermal plants shutdown nightly). We have plenty of capacity to handle EV's.
 
2013-05-17 02:12:29 PM  
Im ambivalent about it. To all those that are apeshiat about "Tax Dollars making someone rich", remember many more have gotten rich from Govt funded initiatives... NASA, NIH, Military etc. Innovation typically has a high startup cost.

Remember when a Tube Colour TV/VCR was a luxury item? How about when having a cellphone/PC/ISDN line was a preserve of the very rich?

We will find out in a couple of Years. Who knows, perhaps the Tesla S may go the way of the VW Phaeton on the American Market. For the next couple of years, I will still lean towards a clean burning diesel car.
 
2013-05-17 02:13:06 PM  

MrSteve007: During the summer, that excess is shipped to California (at great profit to our region & ratepayers)


The Pacific DC Intertie is one of the most impressive pieces of infrastructure, IMO.  The line itself can carry 3.1 Gigawatts.  Rectifiers and inverters on each end to handle that power.  Supplies nearly 50 percent of LA's power from The Dalles.  Hell, just the grounding stations at each end are an amazing engineering achievement.
 
2013-05-17 02:20:57 PM  

Hollie Maea: The Pacific DC Intertie is one of the most impressive pieces of infrastructure, IMO. The line itself can carry 3.1 Gigawatts. Rectifiers and inverters on each end to handle that power. Supplies nearly 50 percent of LA's power from The Dalles. Hell, just the grounding stations at each end are an amazing engineering achievement.


I didn't know that. That is quite impressive - I'd love to have a tour of those facilities.

I decided to update my latest energy bill tally. This morning I was emailed my most recent utility bill. It's interesting to see just how much more efficient it is to own and drive an EV for 95% of my needs:
fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net

Of course this year isn't quite half way over - so you have to roughly double the 2013 numbers, but that's a lot of scratch right there. True, most of it goes to the $199 a month lease of the EV - but as you can see, commuting in an EV is a financially sound decision.
 
2013-05-17 02:43:52 PM  

MrSteve007: espcially as our thermal plants shutdown nightly)


This sounds strange to me, because the plants were described as "coal and nuclear".  How do they shut those down "nightly"?  I thought baseload thermal plants ran pretty much continuously, and gas-fired plants could be easily cycled up and down.  Likewise, wind turbines can be disconnected when not needed, which is why there's so much interest in using the surplus renewable power to produce hydrogen.
 
2013-05-17 02:46:57 PM  
MrSteve007:
Of course this year isn't quite half way over - so you have to roughly double the 2013 numbers, but that's a lot of scratch right there. True, most of it goes to the $199 a month lease of the EV - but as you can see, commuting in an EV is a financially sound decision.

Jesus.  How many miles do you drive per year?  Our gas bill (2011 Honda Civic) is only about $1000 per year.  That's with several long (8-hour) road trips annually to visit friends and family.
 
2013-05-17 02:52:59 PM  

Hollie Maea: Ned Stark: All electric vehicle technology gets pushed ahead a couple years and when the bubble pops a bunch of filthy hippies get left holding the bag.

Downside?

Run along and go short some Tesla stock. I'm sure it will work out as well for you as it did for the guy from last week's thread.


I don't like betting against success.
 
2013-05-17 02:54:47 PM  

MrSteve007: I didn't know that. That is quite impressive - I'd love to have a tour of those facilities.


Definitely you should arrange to tour when you are near The Dalles (you can get there in a Leaf now!).  You have to arrange in advance so they can make sure you aren't a terrorist or something I think.  But very interesting.  Back in the day the rectifiers used mercury arc valves which are the craziest things ever.  I think they still have some of them on display.
 
2013-05-17 02:55:05 PM  

MrSteve007: Hollie Maea: The Pacific DC Intertie is one of the most impressive pieces of infrastructure, IMO. The line itself can carry 3.1 Gigawatts. Rectifiers and inverters on each end to handle that power. Supplies nearly 50 percent of LA's power from The Dalles. Hell, just the grounding stations at each end are an amazing engineering achievement.

I didn't know that. That is quite impressive - I'd love to have a tour of those facilities.

I decided to update my latest energy bill tally. This morning I was emailed my most recent utility bill. It's interesting to see just how much more efficient it is to own and drive an EV for 95% of my needs:
[fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net image 607x341]

Of course this year isn't quite half way over - so you have to roughly double the 2013 numbers, but that's a lot of scratch right there. True, most of it goes to the $199 a month lease of the EV - but as you can see, commuting in an EV is a financially sound decision.


I picked up a Leaf lease for $199 a month (no money down also) and so far the net cost to own the car after fuel savings is about $50 a month.  We have free EV chargers at work so I pay 0 for the electricity.
 
2013-05-17 02:57:39 PM  

Kraftwerk Orange: MrSteve007:
Of course this year isn't quite half way over - so you have to roughly double the 2013 numbers, but that's a lot of scratch right there. True, most of it goes to the $199 a month lease of the EV - but as you can see, commuting in an EV is a financially sound decision.

Jesus.  How many miles do you drive per year?  Our gas bill (2011 Honda Civic) is only about $1000 per year.  That's with several long (8-hour) road trips annually to visit friends and family.


So you drive under 10k miles a year?  That's not really that far.
 
2013-05-17 03:05:11 PM  

Jim.Casy: Tesla bubble sounds like a weapon in the next Red Alert game. Zap Americas enemies with lightning!

/dnrtfa


Tesla Zepplins in Crimson Skies did.
 
2013-05-17 03:06:23 PM  
Pictured: Subby

img.scoop.it
 
2013-05-17 03:17:29 PM  

Kraftwerk Orange: This sounds strange to me, because the plants were described as "coal and nuclear". How do they shut those down "nightly"? I thought baseload thermal plants ran pretty much continuously, and gas-fired plants could be easily cycled up and down. Likewise, wind turbines can be disconnected when not needed, which is why there's so much interest in using the surplus renewable power to produce hydrogen.


Here's the official BPA load balancing page, which calls out the thermal plants. There are two coal plants, one nuclear, and a smattering of smaller "biofuel" plants (burning mostly wood pulp from logging operations). I don't believe we have any operating NG stations, although I could be wrong on that. As you point out, they will shut down wind turbines when it absolutely comes to that - but they first shut down all the thermal plants. Here's a 2011 BPA PDF:

"For the upcoming spring runoff period, the most promising action is to replace the generation of thermal power plants with federal hydropower, which we call thermal displacement. BPA is arranging in advance to displace up to 1,000 megawatts of thermal generation. This would allow wind projects to continue to send renewable carbon-free energy through the transmission system . . .

. . . It usually makes economic sense for thermal plants to shut down and substitute free federal hydropower for their own. In that case, the thermal plant avoids the cost of fuel and still receives revenues from the sale of the replacement hydropower. "


I have a feeling that most of those small bumps come from the biofueled thermal power plants. All the rest of the "traditional" base load plants are fully shut down in the spring - letting cheaper hydro and wind do all the heavy lifting.

Kraftwerk Orange: Jesus. How many miles do you drive per year? Our gas bill (2011 Honda Civic) is only about $1000 per year. That's with several long (8-hour) road trips annually to visit friends and family.


I typically drive about 15,000 miles a year, which is about the US average. Driving an 18-20mpg Toyota Tacoma that takes 89 octane doesn't make it all that cheap. Last year I did two additional roadtrips out to Yellowstone, via a 42mpg motorcycle and 34 mpg Honda Accord, which bumped my average over 2011 miles.

Driving my truck, fuel alone, is about 18 cents a mile. Driving my EV, and doing 50% of my charging for free at work, is 1.5 cents a mile.
 
2013-05-17 03:24:42 PM  

jelloslug: Kraftwerk Orange: MrSteve007:
Of course this year isn't quite half way over - so you have to roughly double the 2013 numbers, but that's a lot of scratch right there. True, most of it goes to the $199 a month lease of the EV - but as you can see, commuting in an EV is a financially sound decision.

Jesus.  How many miles do you drive per year?  Our gas bill (2011 Honda Civic) is only about $1000 per year.  That's with several long (8-hour) road trips annually to visit friends and family.

So you drive under 10k miles a year?  That's not really that far.


10k is correct.  That's pretty close to average, which the DoT says is about 12,000.  Still that'd be only an extra $200 in gas costs...
 
2013-05-17 03:26:34 PM  

MrSteve007: Kraftwerk Orange: This sounds strange to me, because the plants were described as "coal and nuclear". How do they shut those down "nightly"? I thought baseload thermal plants ran pretty much continuously, and gas-fired plants could be easily cycled up and down. Likewise, wind turbines can be disconnected when not needed, which is why there's so much interest in using the surplus renewable power to produce hydrogen.

Here's the official BPA load balancing page, which calls out the thermal plants. There are two coal plants, one nuclear, and a smattering of smaller "biofuel" plants (burning mostly wood pulp from logging operations). I don't believe we have any operating NG stations, although I could be wrong on that. As you point out, they will shut down wind turbines when it absolutely comes to that - but they first shut down all the thermal plants. Here's a 2011 BPA PDF:

"For the upcoming spring runoff period, the most promising action is to replace the generation of thermal power plants with federal hydropower, which we call thermal displacement. BPA is arranging in advance to displace up to 1,000 megawatts of thermal generation. This would allow wind projects to continue to send renewable carbon-free energy through the transmission system . . .

. . . It usually makes economic sense for thermal plants to shut down and substitute free federal hydropower for their own. In that case, the thermal plant avoids the cost of fuel and still receives revenues from the sale of the replacement hydropower. "

I have a feeling that most of those small bumps come from the biofueled thermal power plants. All the rest of the "traditional" base load plants are fully shut down in the spring - letting cheaper hydro and wind do all the heavy lifting.

Kraftwerk Orange: Jesus. How many miles do you drive per year? Our gas bill (2011 Honda Civic) is only about $1000 per year. That's with several long (8-hour) road trips annually to visit friends and family.

I typically drive about 15,0 ...


That demonstrates the diff between your truck and my small sedan.  Huge diff in gas costs.
 
2013-05-17 03:29:43 PM  

Kraftwerk Orange: jelloslug: Kraftwerk Orange: MrSteve007:
Of course this year isn't quite half way over - so you have to roughly double the 2013 numbers, but that's a lot of scratch right there. True, most of it goes to the $199 a month lease of the EV - but as you can see, commuting in an EV is a financially sound decision.

Jesus.  How many miles do you drive per year?  Our gas bill (2011 Honda Civic) is only about $1000 per year.  That's with several long (8-hour) road trips annually to visit friends and family.

So you drive under 10k miles a year?  That's not really that far.

10k is correct.  That's pretty close to average, which the DoT says is about 12,000.  Still that'd be only an extra $200 in gas costs...

Just going back a forth to work is about 14k miles for the two of us.  One of you must not have a job.
 
2013-05-17 03:40:50 PM  
People act like all the great gadgets they use everyday appeared fully formed as cheap as they are today.  EVERY new technology starts as a toy for the rich, unless some incredible breakthrough discovery is made, like cheaper aluminum.  Almost every innovation is just incremental improvement, reducing costs and improving existing systems.  It's like arguing about what good going to the moon was, when you're surrounded by technology made possible by the effort.
 
2013-05-17 03:53:27 PM  

jelloslug: Kraftwerk Orange: jelloslug: Kraftwerk Orange: MrSteve007:
Of course this year isn't quite half way over - so you have to roughly double the 2013 numbers, but that's a lot of scratch right there. True, most of it goes to the $199 a month lease of the EV - but as you can see, commuting in an EV is a financially sound decision.

Jesus.  How many miles do you drive per year?  Our gas bill (2011 Honda Civic) is only about $1000 per year.  That's with several long (8-hour) road trips annually to visit friends and family.

So you drive under 10k miles a year?  That's not really that far.

10k is correct.  That's pretty close to average, which the DoT says is about 12,000.  Still that'd be only an extra $200 in gas costs...
Just going back a forth to work is about 14k miles for the two of us.  One of you must not have a job.


Maybe we just live closer to work than you do.
 
2013-05-17 04:11:26 PM  

akruse: Sigh....

...When the subsidies go away, Musk will have a company selling very desirable high end vehicles that people will actually pay for, and all of his R&D work to develop them will have been subsidized by the government.

Sounds like shrewd business to me and not something to be butthurted about.


You nailed the problem. The subsidized R&D work should be public for any US manufacturer to use. I want my tax money to pay for things that benefit us all, not just Tesla Motors.

I still don't understand why we aren't full court pressing hydrogen fuel cells. If we could bring the costs down we'd be far better off than dealing with electric/petrol or bio diesel.

CSB but I had a friend working on hydrogen and had their US funding cut when the administration went batshait crazy over better battery life for electric cars (they switched to battery research for those sweet government dollars).
 
2013-05-17 04:17:43 PM  

Kraftwerk Orange: Jesus.  How many miles do you drive per year?  Our gas bill (2011 Honda Civic) is only about $1000 per year.  That's with several long (8-hour) road trips annually to visit friends and family.

So you drive under 10k miles a year?  That's not really that far.

10k is correct.  That's pretty close to average, which the DoT says is about 12,000.  Still that'd be only an extra $200 in gas costs...
Just going back a forth to work is about 14k miles for the two of us.  One of you must not have a job.

Maybe we just live closer to work than you do.


That is likely true, but the official DOT stats say this: "the average American driver logs 13,476 miles each year . . . American men drive considerably more miles than American women, according to the FHWA. The average man drives 16,550 miles per year, while the average woman drives 10,142 miles. This gender difference holds true across all age groups."

Taking that into account, you guys individually drive less than 1/2 the typical american. Between the two of you, if you were average, you'd put up nearly 27,000 miles a year.

That said, splitting up your miles per person, I drive nearly 3x's the distance as you do, yet at an "out-of-pocket" fuel cost of about 1/8th you do in your Civic (You have a fuel cost of about 7.8 cents a mile @ 32 mpg - mine is 1.5 cents.) Even with your reduced miles, I spend about 80% less in fuel for my travels.
 
2013-05-17 04:23:49 PM  

pedobearapproved: akruse: Sigh....

...When the subsidies go away, Musk will have a company selling very desirable high end vehicles that people will actually pay for, and all of his R&D work to develop them will have been subsidized by the government.

Sounds like shrewd business to me and not something to be butthurted about.

You nailed the problem. The subsidized R&D work should be public for any US manufacturer to use. I want my tax money to pay for things that benefit us all, not just Tesla Motors.

I still don't understand why we aren't full court pressing hydrogen fuel cells. If we could bring the costs down we'd be far better off than dealing with electric/petrol or bio diesel.

CSB but I had a friend working on hydrogen and had their US funding cut when the administration went batshait crazy over better battery life for electric cars (they switched to battery research for those sweet government dollars).


Isn't hydrogen just a type of liquid battery?
 
2013-05-17 04:24:43 PM  

pedobearapproved: still don't understand why we aren't full court pressing hydrogen fuel cells. If we could bring the costs down we'd be far better off than dealing with electric/petrol or bio diesel.

CSB but I had a friend working on hydrogen and had their US funding cut when the administration went batshait crazy over better battery life for electric cars (they switched to battery research for those sweet government dollars).


The affordable hydrogen car has been pitched for about 35 years now - yet it still doesn't exist. They're more like a million apiece.

However, you can head down to nearly any Nissan dealership and pick up an electric car for less than $200 a month.
 
2013-05-17 04:32:32 PM  

MindStalker: pedobearapproved: akruse: Sigh....

...When the subsidies go away, Musk will have a company selling very desirable high end vehicles that people will actually pay for, and all of his R&D work to develop them will have been subsidized by the government.

Sounds like shrewd business to me and not something to be butthurted about.

You nailed the problem. The subsidized R&D work should be public for any US manufacturer to use. I want my tax money to pay for things that benefit us all, not just Tesla Motors.

I still don't understand why we aren't full court pressing hydrogen fuel cells. If we could bring the costs down we'd be far better off than dealing with electric/petrol or bio diesel.

CSB but I had a friend working on hydrogen and had their US funding cut when the administration went batshait crazy over better battery life for electric cars (they switched to battery research for those sweet government dollars).

Isn't hydrogen just a type of liquid battery?


Yes, but if you pretend real hard you can imagine your car is running on water.
 
2013-05-17 04:42:46 PM  
First giant lasers, and now this?

GOD I LOVE THE FUTURE!

www.bubblews.com
 
2013-05-17 04:49:37 PM  

BolshyGreatYarblocks: Pictured: Subby

[img.scoop.it image 434x521]


Actually, Edison loved electric cars and maintained several of them, even after Henry Ford started giving him free gas cars.

The problem was that Edison wasn't clever enough to even consider trying to invent a new type of battery, which meant his EVs were slow and heavy, though they worked fine to get him to and from his lab.
 
2013-05-17 05:13:34 PM  

MrSteve007: Kraftwerk Orange: Jesus.  How many miles do you drive per year?  Our gas bill (2011 Honda Civic) is only about $1000 per year.  That's with several long (8-hour) road trips annually to visit friends and family.

So you drive under 10k miles a year?  That's not really that far.

10k is correct.  That's pretty close to average, which the DoT says is about 12,000.  Still that'd be only an extra $200 in gas costs...
Just going back a forth to work is about 14k miles for the two of us.  One of you must not have a job.

Maybe we just live closer to work than you do.

That is likely true, but the official DOT stats say this: "the average American driver logs 13,476 miles each year . . . American men drive considerably more miles than American women, according to the FHWA. The average man drives 16,550 miles per year, while the average woman drives 10,142 miles. This gender difference holds true across all age groups."

Taking that into account, you guys individually drive less than 1/2 the typical american. Between the two of you, if you were average, you'd put up nearly 27,000 miles a year.

That said, splitting up your miles per person, I drive nearly 3x's the distance as you do, yet at an "out-of-pocket" fuel cost of about 1/8th you do in your Civic (You have a fuel cost of about 7.8 cents a mile @ 32 mpg - mine is 1.5 cents.) Even with your reduced miles, I spend about 80% less in fuel for my travels.


Should I count the miles i travel using my non-gas powered car, and average them in?  That seems like what you're doing...  All the miles I commute by bike are pretty much free, unless you're one of those pedants that insists on factoring in caloric intake.

 I never meant to start an argument about who uses less fuel or gets lower fuel costs.  I was simply surprised that someone spent more that $3,000 a year on gasoline.  It blew my mind, so I asked for a clarification.  I assumed you drove a lot (hence my question, "How many miles do you drive?"), and it became clear that not only do you have a longer commute than I do, you also drove a gas-guzzler.  You're exactly the kind of person who  should transition to a BEV, because it will do you a lot greater benefit than it would do me.  Aside from the environmental aspects, of course.  You'll save more money.  For me, the break-even is much longer, so I'm going to stick with the Civic.
The Leaf keeps getting cheaper, second-gen due by 2017.
 
2013-05-17 05:20:32 PM  

praymantis: As rich as a Musk is the amount of capital you need to sell multiple models is astounding (R&D, Tooling, Marketing, employee costs, franchise laws etc.)


Tesla's first car was a Lotus body with an electric engine system.  They built the second themselves, and are selling 2 models starting next year with the release of the Model X, a 6 passenger 'SUV' type vehicle.  Though it still looks like a sedan to me...

The only way they become a real player in the car industry is if gas heads up to say $10-$15 per gallon. Based on the amount of oil reserves that have been recently I doubt that will happen anytime soon. With that said I am glad they had a profit last quarter but will the trend continue? Any ones guess!

Doesn't need to be $10-15/gallon
Looking at two 'near identical' vehicles - the Nissan Leaf(electric) and Versa(gasoline), there's roughly a $17k pricetag to the electric.  Ouch.
Assuming standard combined mileage, that's a 13 year payback if you assume - 15k miles/year, $4 gas, $.12 kwh electricity, and that maintenance/battery replacements even out.  The Leaf uses 34 kwh per 100 miles, the Versa gets 31 mpg.  28 City.

On the other hand, the Model S runs cheaper than the models it's often compared against - Mercedes S-Class ($95k),
BMW 7 Series ($74k), Audi 8 ($72k).

Even if you say it's not a 'true' competitor, once you're in that range for a car that has those performance capabilities, you're looking more at 25 mpg.  Which makes the Model S take less than 5 years to 'repay' the $17k, even at $4 gas especially if you're a city driver.


Kirzania: Uh.... Hang on, are you saying this because you don't have to pay for gasoline or because you think the electricity that comes out of your wall is provided by magic elves?


No, he's saying the electricity doesn't come from OPEC, given that OPEC stands for 'Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries'

fluffy2097: You are hilariously dumb and don't understand the concept of electrical loads.


He seems knowledgeable enough, how about you actually, you know, TELL us how he's wrong?

The situation can be complicated.  Electricity usage during the day averages double that of nighttime.  Baseload generation is cheaper than peak generation, and we've had technology for years to 'manage' high wattage devices like water heaters and HVAC systems to help level the peaks.  Charging EVs would be no different.  Slower charging is better for the batteries anyways.

Meanwhile, power lines and equipment are rated by how many amps they can transfer - evening the load they bear is generally a good thing.  Exceeding the power rating is unsafe, but underutilizing it is inefficient.

Kirzania: I'm all for saving the environment or keeping it clean or whatever, don't get me wrong. But you can't swap out one for the other and say how you're doing such good when, in reality, you didn't change anything. It's all


When it comes to electric dryers vs paper towels, it gets complicated, but can still be examined on a statistical basis.  For example, how much electricity is used to manufacture that paper towel?  How much in the way of hydrocarbons would be used to grow, harvest, and process the trees into the paper towel?  What about delivering said towels?

How much energy does it take to hot air dry a pair of hands, vs how many paper towels are used, on average?

I believe the result was that there's a substantial savings to hot air - it's cheaper, and all the energy used to create a paper towel, if burned in a power plant, would dry more hands.  Ergo, it's more efficient and actually does save resources(on average; exceptions exist).

Hollie Maea: Not to mention that refining gasoline takes electricity as well.  A gallon of gas takes about 5kWh to refine, so an EV can go about 15 miles just on the ELECTRICITY that a gas powered car uses per gallon.

Source on this?  What I'm seeing is that the 5 kWh is the amount 'lost' between a barrel of crude and all the products you get out of it. It's NOT a raw electric amount, it's heat energy.  When it comes to heat plants(IE large electric producers), said efficiency is typically between 30 and 50%.
 
2013-05-17 05:36:18 PM  

Firethorn: Looking at two 'near identical' vehicles - the Nissan Leaf(electric) and Versa(gasoline), there's roughly a $17k pricetag to the electric. Ouch.
Assuming standard combined mileage, that's a 13 year payback if you assume - 15k miles/year, $4 gas, $.12 kwh electricity, and that maintenance/battery replacements even out. The Leaf uses 34 kwh per 100 miles, the Versa gets 31 mpg. 28 City.


A $17k pricetag difference? What are you smoking?

When attempting to compare the two similar vehicles, at least get the facts straight:

2013 Nissan Versa 1.6 SL = $16,590
2013 Nissan Leaf S = $21,300

The price difference is $4,700 - although the Leaf has nearly 2x's the torque, 20% more passenger room, 40% more cargo room, standard air conditioning, heated seats, sat radio, and a video display.
 
2013-05-17 05:47:49 PM  

MrSteve007: Firethorn: Looking at two 'near identical' vehicles - the Nissan Leaf(electric) and Versa(gasoline), there's roughly a $17k pricetag to the electric. Ouch.
Assuming standard combined mileage, that's a 13 year payback if you assume - 15k miles/year, $4 gas, $.12 kwh electricity, and that maintenance/battery replacements even out. The Leaf uses 34 kwh per 100 miles, the Versa gets 31 mpg. 28 City.

A $17k pricetag difference? What are you smoking?

When attempting to compare the two similar vehicles, at least get the facts straight:

2013 Nissan Versa 1.6 SL = $16,590
2013 Nissan Leaf S = $21,300

The price difference is $4,700 - although the Leaf has nearly 2x's the torque, 20% more passenger room, 40% more cargo room, standard air conditioning, heated seats, sat radio, and a video display.


24.media.tumblr.com
 
2013-05-17 05:55:58 PM  

Torgo: Voiceofreason01: The idea(and Tesla's business model) is to develop the technology for the more expensive sports cars which can absorb the costs more easily, then to work their way down to more practical and cheaper cars once the brand is established and the technology is proven.

Right.  As I said above, I get that.  Hopefully this investment will pay off with bigger gains than a few thousand pricey cars zipping around the nicer parts of LA.  However, that doesn't change the situation on the ground right now.  Also, as a dyed-in-the-wool libertarian, I get a little itchy whenever something only can happen because the goverment plows taxpayer money into it.  As I said, it's possible and even likely that this may result in some truly disruptive (in a good way) changes to the car industry in the near future, but there are lots of similarly good ideas out there that aren't getting similar funding.

Also, small point, but the Model S (the only car the company currently makes) and upcoming Model X are both not sports cars.


While Technically not sportscars,  Accelleration on both of them is in the 0-60 sub 5 seconds and they have both have a relatively low center of gravity.
 
2013-05-17 05:57:43 PM  

Kraftwerk Orange: I never meant to start an argument about who uses less fuel or gets lower fuel costs. I was simply surprised that someone spent more that $3,000 a year on gasoline. It blew my mind, so I asked for a clarification. I assumed you drove a lot (hence my question, "How many miles do you drive?"), and it became clear that not only do you have a longer commute than I do, you also drove a gas-guzzler. You're exactly the kind of person who should transition to a BEV, because it will do you a lot greater benefit than it would do me. Aside from the environmental aspects, of course. You'll save more money. For me, the break-even is much longer, so I'm going to stick with the Civic.
The Leaf keeps getting cheaper, second-gen due by 2017.


Oh, I agree it is a bit of an apples and oranges comparison:

Me: drives the typical American male distance, in a vehicle that gets a little less than the average American mpg (although when I bought it in 2005, it was exactly the average mpg of a new vehicle).
You: personally drives 1/3rd the typical American male distance, in a vehicle that gets 50% better than the average.

For you, going to an EV right now doesn't make much sense financially. But for me, being almost the quintessential average American driver, spending $3,000 a year in gas,  it makes a lot of sense.
 
2013-05-17 05:58:59 PM  

Firethorn: Source on this?  What I'm seeing is that the 5 kWh is the amount 'lost' between a barrel of crude and all the products you get out of it. It's NOT a raw electric amount, it's heat energy.  When it comes to heat plants(IE large electric producers), said efficiency is typically between 30 and 50%.


I could look for a source, but it looks like your source is better.  And you are correct; 6kWh of heat energy is less significant than 6kWh of electrical energy.
 
2013-05-17 06:04:02 PM  

MindStalker: Isn't hydrogen just a type of liquid battery?


Well hydrogen is just a fuel, but as far as a fuel cell goes, it is sort of like a battery in that it outputs electricity.  But really it is easiest to think of it is an engine that burns so slowly that the energy can be captured as electricity instead of as heat.  But it still "burns" a fuel and oxygen.  The gradual nature makes it quite a bit more efficient than an internal combustion engine, but it still is quite a bit less efficient than a battery (around 60 percent efficient).
 
2013-05-17 06:04:30 PM  

Hollie Maea: Firethorn: Source on this?  What I'm seeing is that the 5 kWh is the amount 'lost' between a barrel of crude and all the products you get out of it. It's NOT a raw electric amount, it's heat energy.  When it comes to heat plants(IE large electric producers), said efficiency is typically between 30 and 50%.

I could look for a source, but it looks like your source is better.  And you are correct; 6kWh of heat energy is less significant than 6kWh of electrical energy.


While the numbers are a bit old and refineries produce much more than just gasoline - it is interesting to note that in 2005, US refineries alone used 48,891,000,000 kWh of electricity. That works out to be about 165 kWh *per capita* (about the same energy it takes to drive a Leaf 600 miles).
 
2013-05-17 07:33:17 PM  

fluffy2097: Now please, pull up a website from some utility coop in iowa that charges different amounts for power at different times of day, and say that price has something to do with capacity, while looking at your shiatty broadband internet connection that costs far more then it ever should.


How about for all of the UK?.

Electricity Demand - Last 24 hours.
www.nationalgrid.com
Last 7 days:
www.nationalgrid.com
//Oh, what's the harm in increasing the load on 4 decade old transmission lines. They've lasted this long. They'll keep lasting.

That's the thing.  When it comes to 'load', power lines don't care how much energy is transmitted on an annual or even daily basis.  They care about how much is being transmitted right now.  Look at how the peak is 42k while the bottom is 27k.  You could increase the power usage at night 55% and still be under capacity.  You're increasing the efficiency of your use of the power lines.  Oddly enough, I've figured out in the past as a really rough estimate if everybody switched over to an EV of average KwH per mile and kept their driving habits the same, it would increase the average household electricity usage by ~50%.

Doesn't mean the occasional upgrade to the grid/generation won't be needed.  Nor that we wouldn't start replacing peaking/daytime power plants with baseload ones.  But baseload ones tends to be cheaper and more efficient anyways.

MrSteve007: A $17k pricetag difference? What are you smoking?


Nissan's crack, apparently.  MSRP for the Leaf is $29k, you must be including federal rebates, which I didn't which I should have mentioned in the sense that a $10k rebate from the feds amounts to a subsidy that would help create a 'bubble' that could collapse if suddenly taken away.  MSRP for the SL is $19k, so I did screw up after accidentally deleting my Boobies.  It should have been $10k.

Fixing my screwup changes the math substantially.  Assuming the Leaf meets your range needs, you're looking at making your money back in 7.2 years, even at $4/gallon gasoline.

MrSteve007: That works out to be about 165 kWh *per capita* (about the same energy it takes to drive a Leaf 600 miles).


Or a Model S with one of the smaller battery packs.  That's one of the things about electric motors - they're generally more efficient the bigger/more powerful they are.

I like this, it's good evidence that the actual electric cost is far smaller as it works out to only about 5% of the distance needs of the average american(12k miles/year), and doesn't include all the other products the refineries produce.  There's other electric costs in there(such as filling pumps), but those are generally minor.  I'm on a well, I have to pay for the electricity for my well pump, and I go through a lot more water than I do gasoline, but my bill isn't crazy.

For that matter - if we were really using 5 kwH of electricity per gallon of gasoline, we'd never of been able to have $1/gallon gasoline.
 
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