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(Washington Post)   Is Obama helping to create a Tesla bubble? Well, is he?   (washingtonpost.com) divider line 135
    More: Scary, President Obama, economic bubble, California Air Resources Board, mass market, market value, Elon Musk  
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9221 clicks; posted to Main » on 17 May 2013 at 9:14 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-05-17 02:04:07 PM  

fluffy2097: Now where is total transmission capacity on your fancy chart there?  How much higher can that red line go without shiat melting?

Amazing how hydro power is producing over double the energy required for the load. Care to explain that, given that electricity cannot be stored on the grid?

/Oh right, all that power is being transmitted somewhere else...
//Oh, what's the harm in increasing the load on 4 decade old transmission lines. They've lasted this long. They'll keep lasting.


On average, the Pacific NW region generates 3x's the energy we consume. During the summer, that excess is shipped to California (at great profit to our region & ratepayers) or to Canada during the winter.

As you can see, we can handle massive amounts of regional electrical consumption - if we want to. And you obviously see that our region's load dips considerably at night (espcially as our thermal plants shutdown nightly). We have plenty of capacity to handle EV's.
 
2013-05-17 02:12:29 PM  
Im ambivalent about it. To all those that are apeshiat about "Tax Dollars making someone rich", remember many more have gotten rich from Govt funded initiatives... NASA, NIH, Military etc. Innovation typically has a high startup cost.

Remember when a Tube Colour TV/VCR was a luxury item? How about when having a cellphone/PC/ISDN line was a preserve of the very rich?

We will find out in a couple of Years. Who knows, perhaps the Tesla S may go the way of the VW Phaeton on the American Market. For the next couple of years, I will still lean towards a clean burning diesel car.
 
2013-05-17 02:13:06 PM  

MrSteve007: During the summer, that excess is shipped to California (at great profit to our region & ratepayers)


The Pacific DC Intertie is one of the most impressive pieces of infrastructure, IMO.  The line itself can carry 3.1 Gigawatts.  Rectifiers and inverters on each end to handle that power.  Supplies nearly 50 percent of LA's power from The Dalles.  Hell, just the grounding stations at each end are an amazing engineering achievement.
 
2013-05-17 02:20:57 PM  

Hollie Maea: The Pacific DC Intertie is one of the most impressive pieces of infrastructure, IMO. The line itself can carry 3.1 Gigawatts. Rectifiers and inverters on each end to handle that power. Supplies nearly 50 percent of LA's power from The Dalles. Hell, just the grounding stations at each end are an amazing engineering achievement.


I didn't know that. That is quite impressive - I'd love to have a tour of those facilities.

I decided to update my latest energy bill tally. This morning I was emailed my most recent utility bill. It's interesting to see just how much more efficient it is to own and drive an EV for 95% of my needs:
fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net

Of course this year isn't quite half way over - so you have to roughly double the 2013 numbers, but that's a lot of scratch right there. True, most of it goes to the $199 a month lease of the EV - but as you can see, commuting in an EV is a financially sound decision.
 
2013-05-17 02:43:52 PM  

MrSteve007: espcially as our thermal plants shutdown nightly)


This sounds strange to me, because the plants were described as "coal and nuclear".  How do they shut those down "nightly"?  I thought baseload thermal plants ran pretty much continuously, and gas-fired plants could be easily cycled up and down.  Likewise, wind turbines can be disconnected when not needed, which is why there's so much interest in using the surplus renewable power to produce hydrogen.
 
2013-05-17 02:46:57 PM  
MrSteve007:
Of course this year isn't quite half way over - so you have to roughly double the 2013 numbers, but that's a lot of scratch right there. True, most of it goes to the $199 a month lease of the EV - but as you can see, commuting in an EV is a financially sound decision.

Jesus.  How many miles do you drive per year?  Our gas bill (2011 Honda Civic) is only about $1000 per year.  That's with several long (8-hour) road trips annually to visit friends and family.
 
2013-05-17 02:52:59 PM  

Hollie Maea: Ned Stark: All electric vehicle technology gets pushed ahead a couple years and when the bubble pops a bunch of filthy hippies get left holding the bag.

Downside?

Run along and go short some Tesla stock. I'm sure it will work out as well for you as it did for the guy from last week's thread.


I don't like betting against success.
 
2013-05-17 02:54:47 PM  

MrSteve007: I didn't know that. That is quite impressive - I'd love to have a tour of those facilities.


Definitely you should arrange to tour when you are near The Dalles (you can get there in a Leaf now!).  You have to arrange in advance so they can make sure you aren't a terrorist or something I think.  But very interesting.  Back in the day the rectifiers used mercury arc valves which are the craziest things ever.  I think they still have some of them on display.
 
2013-05-17 02:55:05 PM  

MrSteve007: Hollie Maea: The Pacific DC Intertie is one of the most impressive pieces of infrastructure, IMO. The line itself can carry 3.1 Gigawatts. Rectifiers and inverters on each end to handle that power. Supplies nearly 50 percent of LA's power from The Dalles. Hell, just the grounding stations at each end are an amazing engineering achievement.

I didn't know that. That is quite impressive - I'd love to have a tour of those facilities.

I decided to update my latest energy bill tally. This morning I was emailed my most recent utility bill. It's interesting to see just how much more efficient it is to own and drive an EV for 95% of my needs:
[fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net image 607x341]

Of course this year isn't quite half way over - so you have to roughly double the 2013 numbers, but that's a lot of scratch right there. True, most of it goes to the $199 a month lease of the EV - but as you can see, commuting in an EV is a financially sound decision.


I picked up a Leaf lease for $199 a month (no money down also) and so far the net cost to own the car after fuel savings is about $50 a month.  We have free EV chargers at work so I pay 0 for the electricity.
 
2013-05-17 02:57:39 PM  

Kraftwerk Orange: MrSteve007:
Of course this year isn't quite half way over - so you have to roughly double the 2013 numbers, but that's a lot of scratch right there. True, most of it goes to the $199 a month lease of the EV - but as you can see, commuting in an EV is a financially sound decision.

Jesus.  How many miles do you drive per year?  Our gas bill (2011 Honda Civic) is only about $1000 per year.  That's with several long (8-hour) road trips annually to visit friends and family.


So you drive under 10k miles a year?  That's not really that far.
 
2013-05-17 03:05:11 PM  

Jim.Casy: Tesla bubble sounds like a weapon in the next Red Alert game. Zap Americas enemies with lightning!

/dnrtfa


Tesla Zepplins in Crimson Skies did.
 
2013-05-17 03:06:23 PM  
Pictured: Subby

img.scoop.it
 
2013-05-17 03:17:29 PM  

Kraftwerk Orange: This sounds strange to me, because the plants were described as "coal and nuclear". How do they shut those down "nightly"? I thought baseload thermal plants ran pretty much continuously, and gas-fired plants could be easily cycled up and down. Likewise, wind turbines can be disconnected when not needed, which is why there's so much interest in using the surplus renewable power to produce hydrogen.


Here's the official BPA load balancing page, which calls out the thermal plants. There are two coal plants, one nuclear, and a smattering of smaller "biofuel" plants (burning mostly wood pulp from logging operations). I don't believe we have any operating NG stations, although I could be wrong on that. As you point out, they will shut down wind turbines when it absolutely comes to that - but they first shut down all the thermal plants. Here's a 2011 BPA PDF:

"For the upcoming spring runoff period, the most promising action is to replace the generation of thermal power plants with federal hydropower, which we call thermal displacement. BPA is arranging in advance to displace up to 1,000 megawatts of thermal generation. This would allow wind projects to continue to send renewable carbon-free energy through the transmission system . . .

. . . It usually makes economic sense for thermal plants to shut down and substitute free federal hydropower for their own. In that case, the thermal plant avoids the cost of fuel and still receives revenues from the sale of the replacement hydropower. "


I have a feeling that most of those small bumps come from the biofueled thermal power plants. All the rest of the "traditional" base load plants are fully shut down in the spring - letting cheaper hydro and wind do all the heavy lifting.

Kraftwerk Orange: Jesus. How many miles do you drive per year? Our gas bill (2011 Honda Civic) is only about $1000 per year. That's with several long (8-hour) road trips annually to visit friends and family.


I typically drive about 15,000 miles a year, which is about the US average. Driving an 18-20mpg Toyota Tacoma that takes 89 octane doesn't make it all that cheap. Last year I did two additional roadtrips out to Yellowstone, via a 42mpg motorcycle and 34 mpg Honda Accord, which bumped my average over 2011 miles.

Driving my truck, fuel alone, is about 18 cents a mile. Driving my EV, and doing 50% of my charging for free at work, is 1.5 cents a mile.
 
2013-05-17 03:24:42 PM  

jelloslug: Kraftwerk Orange: MrSteve007:
Of course this year isn't quite half way over - so you have to roughly double the 2013 numbers, but that's a lot of scratch right there. True, most of it goes to the $199 a month lease of the EV - but as you can see, commuting in an EV is a financially sound decision.

Jesus.  How many miles do you drive per year?  Our gas bill (2011 Honda Civic) is only about $1000 per year.  That's with several long (8-hour) road trips annually to visit friends and family.

So you drive under 10k miles a year?  That's not really that far.


10k is correct.  That's pretty close to average, which the DoT says is about 12,000.  Still that'd be only an extra $200 in gas costs...
 
2013-05-17 03:26:34 PM  

MrSteve007: Kraftwerk Orange: This sounds strange to me, because the plants were described as "coal and nuclear". How do they shut those down "nightly"? I thought baseload thermal plants ran pretty much continuously, and gas-fired plants could be easily cycled up and down. Likewise, wind turbines can be disconnected when not needed, which is why there's so much interest in using the surplus renewable power to produce hydrogen.

Here's the official BPA load balancing page, which calls out the thermal plants. There are two coal plants, one nuclear, and a smattering of smaller "biofuel" plants (burning mostly wood pulp from logging operations). I don't believe we have any operating NG stations, although I could be wrong on that. As you point out, they will shut down wind turbines when it absolutely comes to that - but they first shut down all the thermal plants. Here's a 2011 BPA PDF:

"For the upcoming spring runoff period, the most promising action is to replace the generation of thermal power plants with federal hydropower, which we call thermal displacement. BPA is arranging in advance to displace up to 1,000 megawatts of thermal generation. This would allow wind projects to continue to send renewable carbon-free energy through the transmission system . . .

. . . It usually makes economic sense for thermal plants to shut down and substitute free federal hydropower for their own. In that case, the thermal plant avoids the cost of fuel and still receives revenues from the sale of the replacement hydropower. "

I have a feeling that most of those small bumps come from the biofueled thermal power plants. All the rest of the "traditional" base load plants are fully shut down in the spring - letting cheaper hydro and wind do all the heavy lifting.

Kraftwerk Orange: Jesus. How many miles do you drive per year? Our gas bill (2011 Honda Civic) is only about $1000 per year. That's with several long (8-hour) road trips annually to visit friends and family.

I typically drive about 15,0 ...


That demonstrates the diff between your truck and my small sedan.  Huge diff in gas costs.
 
2013-05-17 03:29:43 PM  

Kraftwerk Orange: jelloslug: Kraftwerk Orange: MrSteve007:
Of course this year isn't quite half way over - so you have to roughly double the 2013 numbers, but that's a lot of scratch right there. True, most of it goes to the $199 a month lease of the EV - but as you can see, commuting in an EV is a financially sound decision.

Jesus.  How many miles do you drive per year?  Our gas bill (2011 Honda Civic) is only about $1000 per year.  That's with several long (8-hour) road trips annually to visit friends and family.

So you drive under 10k miles a year?  That's not really that far.

10k is correct.  That's pretty close to average, which the DoT says is about 12,000.  Still that'd be only an extra $200 in gas costs...

Just going back a forth to work is about 14k miles for the two of us.  One of you must not have a job.
 
2013-05-17 03:40:50 PM  
People act like all the great gadgets they use everyday appeared fully formed as cheap as they are today.  EVERY new technology starts as a toy for the rich, unless some incredible breakthrough discovery is made, like cheaper aluminum.  Almost every innovation is just incremental improvement, reducing costs and improving existing systems.  It's like arguing about what good going to the moon was, when you're surrounded by technology made possible by the effort.
 
2013-05-17 03:53:27 PM  

jelloslug: Kraftwerk Orange: jelloslug: Kraftwerk Orange: MrSteve007:
Of course this year isn't quite half way over - so you have to roughly double the 2013 numbers, but that's a lot of scratch right there. True, most of it goes to the $199 a month lease of the EV - but as you can see, commuting in an EV is a financially sound decision.

Jesus.  How many miles do you drive per year?  Our gas bill (2011 Honda Civic) is only about $1000 per year.  That's with several long (8-hour) road trips annually to visit friends and family.

So you drive under 10k miles a year?  That's not really that far.

10k is correct.  That's pretty close to average, which the DoT says is about 12,000.  Still that'd be only an extra $200 in gas costs...
Just going back a forth to work is about 14k miles for the two of us.  One of you must not have a job.


Maybe we just live closer to work than you do.
 
2013-05-17 04:11:26 PM  

akruse: Sigh....

...When the subsidies go away, Musk will have a company selling very desirable high end vehicles that people will actually pay for, and all of his R&D work to develop them will have been subsidized by the government.

Sounds like shrewd business to me and not something to be butthurted about.


You nailed the problem. The subsidized R&D work should be public for any US manufacturer to use. I want my tax money to pay for things that benefit us all, not just Tesla Motors.

I still don't understand why we aren't full court pressing hydrogen fuel cells. If we could bring the costs down we'd be far better off than dealing with electric/petrol or bio diesel.

CSB but I had a friend working on hydrogen and had their US funding cut when the administration went batshait crazy over better battery life for electric cars (they switched to battery research for those sweet government dollars).
 
2013-05-17 04:17:43 PM  

Kraftwerk Orange: Jesus.  How many miles do you drive per year?  Our gas bill (2011 Honda Civic) is only about $1000 per year.  That's with several long (8-hour) road trips annually to visit friends and family.

So you drive under 10k miles a year?  That's not really that far.

10k is correct.  That's pretty close to average, which the DoT says is about 12,000.  Still that'd be only an extra $200 in gas costs...
Just going back a forth to work is about 14k miles for the two of us.  One of you must not have a job.

Maybe we just live closer to work than you do.


That is likely true, but the official DOT stats say this: "the average American driver logs 13,476 miles each year . . . American men drive considerably more miles than American women, according to the FHWA. The average man drives 16,550 miles per year, while the average woman drives 10,142 miles. This gender difference holds true across all age groups."

Taking that into account, you guys individually drive less than 1/2 the typical american. Between the two of you, if you were average, you'd put up nearly 27,000 miles a year.

That said, splitting up your miles per person, I drive nearly 3x's the distance as you do, yet at an "out-of-pocket" fuel cost of about 1/8th you do in your Civic (You have a fuel cost of about 7.8 cents a mile @ 32 mpg - mine is 1.5 cents.) Even with your reduced miles, I spend about 80% less in fuel for my travels.
 
2013-05-17 04:23:49 PM  

pedobearapproved: akruse: Sigh....

...When the subsidies go away, Musk will have a company selling very desirable high end vehicles that people will actually pay for, and all of his R&D work to develop them will have been subsidized by the government.

Sounds like shrewd business to me and not something to be butthurted about.

You nailed the problem. The subsidized R&D work should be public for any US manufacturer to use. I want my tax money to pay for things that benefit us all, not just Tesla Motors.

I still don't understand why we aren't full court pressing hydrogen fuel cells. If we could bring the costs down we'd be far better off than dealing with electric/petrol or bio diesel.

CSB but I had a friend working on hydrogen and had their US funding cut when the administration went batshait crazy over better battery life for electric cars (they switched to battery research for those sweet government dollars).


Isn't hydrogen just a type of liquid battery?
 
2013-05-17 04:24:43 PM  

pedobearapproved: still don't understand why we aren't full court pressing hydrogen fuel cells. If we could bring the costs down we'd be far better off than dealing with electric/petrol or bio diesel.

CSB but I had a friend working on hydrogen and had their US funding cut when the administration went batshait crazy over better battery life for electric cars (they switched to battery research for those sweet government dollars).


The affordable hydrogen car has been pitched for about 35 years now - yet it still doesn't exist. They're more like a million apiece.

However, you can head down to nearly any Nissan dealership and pick up an electric car for less than $200 a month.
 
2013-05-17 04:32:32 PM  

MindStalker: pedobearapproved: akruse: Sigh....

...When the subsidies go away, Musk will have a company selling very desirable high end vehicles that people will actually pay for, and all of his R&D work to develop them will have been subsidized by the government.

Sounds like shrewd business to me and not something to be butthurted about.

You nailed the problem. The subsidized R&D work should be public for any US manufacturer to use. I want my tax money to pay for things that benefit us all, not just Tesla Motors.

I still don't understand why we aren't full court pressing hydrogen fuel cells. If we could bring the costs down we'd be far better off than dealing with electric/petrol or bio diesel.

CSB but I had a friend working on hydrogen and had their US funding cut when the administration went batshait crazy over better battery life for electric cars (they switched to battery research for those sweet government dollars).

Isn't hydrogen just a type of liquid battery?


Yes, but if you pretend real hard you can imagine your car is running on water.
 
2013-05-17 04:42:46 PM  
First giant lasers, and now this?

GOD I LOVE THE FUTURE!

www.bubblews.com
 
2013-05-17 04:49:37 PM  

BolshyGreatYarblocks: Pictured: Subby

[img.scoop.it image 434x521]


Actually, Edison loved electric cars and maintained several of them, even after Henry Ford started giving him free gas cars.

The problem was that Edison wasn't clever enough to even consider trying to invent a new type of battery, which meant his EVs were slow and heavy, though they worked fine to get him to and from his lab.
 
2013-05-17 05:13:34 PM  

MrSteve007: Kraftwerk Orange: Jesus.  How many miles do you drive per year?  Our gas bill (2011 Honda Civic) is only about $1000 per year.  That's with several long (8-hour) road trips annually to visit friends and family.

So you drive under 10k miles a year?  That's not really that far.

10k is correct.  That's pretty close to average, which the DoT says is about 12,000.  Still that'd be only an extra $200 in gas costs...
Just going back a forth to work is about 14k miles for the two of us.  One of you must not have a job.

Maybe we just live closer to work than you do.

That is likely true, but the official DOT stats say this: "the average American driver logs 13,476 miles each year . . . American men drive considerably more miles than American women, according to the FHWA. The average man drives 16,550 miles per year, while the average woman drives 10,142 miles. This gender difference holds true across all age groups."

Taking that into account, you guys individually drive less than 1/2 the typical american. Between the two of you, if you were average, you'd put up nearly 27,000 miles a year.

That said, splitting up your miles per person, I drive nearly 3x's the distance as you do, yet at an "out-of-pocket" fuel cost of about 1/8th you do in your Civic (You have a fuel cost of about 7.8 cents a mile @ 32 mpg - mine is 1.5 cents.) Even with your reduced miles, I spend about 80% less in fuel for my travels.


Should I count the miles i travel using my non-gas powered car, and average them in?  That seems like what you're doing...  All the miles I commute by bike are pretty much free, unless you're one of those pedants that insists on factoring in caloric intake.

 I never meant to start an argument about who uses less fuel or gets lower fuel costs.  I was simply surprised that someone spent more that $3,000 a year on gasoline.  It blew my mind, so I asked for a clarification.  I assumed you drove a lot (hence my question, "How many miles do you drive?"), and it became clear that not only do you have a longer commute than I do, you also drove a gas-guzzler.  You're exactly the kind of person who  should transition to a BEV, because it will do you a lot greater benefit than it would do me.  Aside from the environmental aspects, of course.  You'll save more money.  For me, the break-even is much longer, so I'm going to stick with the Civic.
The Leaf keeps getting cheaper, second-gen due by 2017.
 
2013-05-17 05:20:32 PM  

praymantis: As rich as a Musk is the amount of capital you need to sell multiple models is astounding (R&D, Tooling, Marketing, employee costs, franchise laws etc.)


Tesla's first car was a Lotus body with an electric engine system.  They built the second themselves, and are selling 2 models starting next year with the release of the Model X, a 6 passenger 'SUV' type vehicle.  Though it still looks like a sedan to me...

The only way they become a real player in the car industry is if gas heads up to say $10-$15 per gallon. Based on the amount of oil reserves that have been recently I doubt that will happen anytime soon. With that said I am glad they had a profit last quarter but will the trend continue? Any ones guess!

Doesn't need to be $10-15/gallon
Looking at two 'near identical' vehicles - the Nissan Leaf(electric) and Versa(gasoline), there's roughly a $17k pricetag to the electric.  Ouch.
Assuming standard combined mileage, that's a 13 year payback if you assume - 15k miles/year, $4 gas, $.12 kwh electricity, and that maintenance/battery replacements even out.  The Leaf uses 34 kwh per 100 miles, the Versa gets 31 mpg.  28 City.

On the other hand, the Model S runs cheaper than the models it's often compared against - Mercedes S-Class ($95k),
BMW 7 Series ($74k), Audi 8 ($72k).

Even if you say it's not a 'true' competitor, once you're in that range for a car that has those performance capabilities, you're looking more at 25 mpg.  Which makes the Model S take less than 5 years to 'repay' the $17k, even at $4 gas especially if you're a city driver.


Kirzania: Uh.... Hang on, are you saying this because you don't have to pay for gasoline or because you think the electricity that comes out of your wall is provided by magic elves?


No, he's saying the electricity doesn't come from OPEC, given that OPEC stands for 'Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries'

fluffy2097: You are hilariously dumb and don't understand the concept of electrical loads.


He seems knowledgeable enough, how about you actually, you know, TELL us how he's wrong?

The situation can be complicated.  Electricity usage during the day averages double that of nighttime.  Baseload generation is cheaper than peak generation, and we've had technology for years to 'manage' high wattage devices like water heaters and HVAC systems to help level the peaks.  Charging EVs would be no different.  Slower charging is better for the batteries anyways.

Meanwhile, power lines and equipment are rated by how many amps they can transfer - evening the load they bear is generally a good thing.  Exceeding the power rating is unsafe, but underutilizing it is inefficient.

Kirzania: I'm all for saving the environment or keeping it clean or whatever, don't get me wrong. But you can't swap out one for the other and say how you're doing such good when, in reality, you didn't change anything. It's all


When it comes to electric dryers vs paper towels, it gets complicated, but can still be examined on a statistical basis.  For example, how much electricity is used to manufacture that paper towel?  How much in the way of hydrocarbons would be used to grow, harvest, and process the trees into the paper towel?  What about delivering said towels?

How much energy does it take to hot air dry a pair of hands, vs how many paper towels are used, on average?

I believe the result was that there's a substantial savings to hot air - it's cheaper, and all the energy used to create a paper towel, if burned in a power plant, would dry more hands.  Ergo, it's more efficient and actually does save resources(on average; exceptions exist).

Hollie Maea: Not to mention that refining gasoline takes electricity as well.  A gallon of gas takes about 5kWh to refine, so an EV can go about 15 miles just on the ELECTRICITY that a gas powered car uses per gallon.

Source on this?  What I'm seeing is that the 5 kWh is the amount 'lost' between a barrel of crude and all the products you get out of it. It's NOT a raw electric amount, it's heat energy.  When it comes to heat plants(IE large electric producers), said efficiency is typically between 30 and 50%.
 
2013-05-17 05:36:18 PM  

Firethorn: Looking at two 'near identical' vehicles - the Nissan Leaf(electric) and Versa(gasoline), there's roughly a $17k pricetag to the electric. Ouch.
Assuming standard combined mileage, that's a 13 year payback if you assume - 15k miles/year, $4 gas, $.12 kwh electricity, and that maintenance/battery replacements even out. The Leaf uses 34 kwh per 100 miles, the Versa gets 31 mpg. 28 City.


A $17k pricetag difference? What are you smoking?

When attempting to compare the two similar vehicles, at least get the facts straight:

2013 Nissan Versa 1.6 SL = $16,590
2013 Nissan Leaf S = $21,300

The price difference is $4,700 - although the Leaf has nearly 2x's the torque, 20% more passenger room, 40% more cargo room, standard air conditioning, heated seats, sat radio, and a video display.
 
2013-05-17 05:47:49 PM  

MrSteve007: Firethorn: Looking at two 'near identical' vehicles - the Nissan Leaf(electric) and Versa(gasoline), there's roughly a $17k pricetag to the electric. Ouch.
Assuming standard combined mileage, that's a 13 year payback if you assume - 15k miles/year, $4 gas, $.12 kwh electricity, and that maintenance/battery replacements even out. The Leaf uses 34 kwh per 100 miles, the Versa gets 31 mpg. 28 City.

A $17k pricetag difference? What are you smoking?

When attempting to compare the two similar vehicles, at least get the facts straight:

2013 Nissan Versa 1.6 SL = $16,590
2013 Nissan Leaf S = $21,300

The price difference is $4,700 - although the Leaf has nearly 2x's the torque, 20% more passenger room, 40% more cargo room, standard air conditioning, heated seats, sat radio, and a video display.


24.media.tumblr.com
 
2013-05-17 05:55:58 PM  

Torgo: Voiceofreason01: The idea(and Tesla's business model) is to develop the technology for the more expensive sports cars which can absorb the costs more easily, then to work their way down to more practical and cheaper cars once the brand is established and the technology is proven.

Right.  As I said above, I get that.  Hopefully this investment will pay off with bigger gains than a few thousand pricey cars zipping around the nicer parts of LA.  However, that doesn't change the situation on the ground right now.  Also, as a dyed-in-the-wool libertarian, I get a little itchy whenever something only can happen because the goverment plows taxpayer money into it.  As I said, it's possible and even likely that this may result in some truly disruptive (in a good way) changes to the car industry in the near future, but there are lots of similarly good ideas out there that aren't getting similar funding.

Also, small point, but the Model S (the only car the company currently makes) and upcoming Model X are both not sports cars.


While Technically not sportscars,  Accelleration on both of them is in the 0-60 sub 5 seconds and they have both have a relatively low center of gravity.
 
2013-05-17 05:57:43 PM  

Kraftwerk Orange: I never meant to start an argument about who uses less fuel or gets lower fuel costs. I was simply surprised that someone spent more that $3,000 a year on gasoline. It blew my mind, so I asked for a clarification. I assumed you drove a lot (hence my question, "How many miles do you drive?"), and it became clear that not only do you have a longer commute than I do, you also drove a gas-guzzler. You're exactly the kind of person who should transition to a BEV, because it will do you a lot greater benefit than it would do me. Aside from the environmental aspects, of course. You'll save more money. For me, the break-even is much longer, so I'm going to stick with the Civic.
The Leaf keeps getting cheaper, second-gen due by 2017.


Oh, I agree it is a bit of an apples and oranges comparison:

Me: drives the typical American male distance, in a vehicle that gets a little less than the average American mpg (although when I bought it in 2005, it was exactly the average mpg of a new vehicle).
You: personally drives 1/3rd the typical American male distance, in a vehicle that gets 50% better than the average.

For you, going to an EV right now doesn't make much sense financially. But for me, being almost the quintessential average American driver, spending $3,000 a year in gas,  it makes a lot of sense.
 
2013-05-17 05:58:59 PM  

Firethorn: Source on this?  What I'm seeing is that the 5 kWh is the amount 'lost' between a barrel of crude and all the products you get out of it. It's NOT a raw electric amount, it's heat energy.  When it comes to heat plants(IE large electric producers), said efficiency is typically between 30 and 50%.


I could look for a source, but it looks like your source is better.  And you are correct; 6kWh of heat energy is less significant than 6kWh of electrical energy.
 
2013-05-17 06:04:02 PM  

MindStalker: Isn't hydrogen just a type of liquid battery?


Well hydrogen is just a fuel, but as far as a fuel cell goes, it is sort of like a battery in that it outputs electricity.  But really it is easiest to think of it is an engine that burns so slowly that the energy can be captured as electricity instead of as heat.  But it still "burns" a fuel and oxygen.  The gradual nature makes it quite a bit more efficient than an internal combustion engine, but it still is quite a bit less efficient than a battery (around 60 percent efficient).
 
2013-05-17 06:04:30 PM  

Hollie Maea: Firethorn: Source on this?  What I'm seeing is that the 5 kWh is the amount 'lost' between a barrel of crude and all the products you get out of it. It's NOT a raw electric amount, it's heat energy.  When it comes to heat plants(IE large electric producers), said efficiency is typically between 30 and 50%.

I could look for a source, but it looks like your source is better.  And you are correct; 6kWh of heat energy is less significant than 6kWh of electrical energy.


While the numbers are a bit old and refineries produce much more than just gasoline - it is interesting to note that in 2005, US refineries alone used 48,891,000,000 kWh of electricity. That works out to be about 165 kWh *per capita* (about the same energy it takes to drive a Leaf 600 miles).
 
2013-05-17 07:33:17 PM  

fluffy2097: Now please, pull up a website from some utility coop in iowa that charges different amounts for power at different times of day, and say that price has something to do with capacity, while looking at your shiatty broadband internet connection that costs far more then it ever should.


How about for all of the UK?.

Electricity Demand - Last 24 hours.
www.nationalgrid.com
Last 7 days:
www.nationalgrid.com
//Oh, what's the harm in increasing the load on 4 decade old transmission lines. They've lasted this long. They'll keep lasting.

That's the thing.  When it comes to 'load', power lines don't care how much energy is transmitted on an annual or even daily basis.  They care about how much is being transmitted right now.  Look at how the peak is 42k while the bottom is 27k.  You could increase the power usage at night 55% and still be under capacity.  You're increasing the efficiency of your use of the power lines.  Oddly enough, I've figured out in the past as a really rough estimate if everybody switched over to an EV of average KwH per mile and kept their driving habits the same, it would increase the average household electricity usage by ~50%.

Doesn't mean the occasional upgrade to the grid/generation won't be needed.  Nor that we wouldn't start replacing peaking/daytime power plants with baseload ones.  But baseload ones tends to be cheaper and more efficient anyways.

MrSteve007: A $17k pricetag difference? What are you smoking?


Nissan's crack, apparently.  MSRP for the Leaf is $29k, you must be including federal rebates, which I didn't which I should have mentioned in the sense that a $10k rebate from the feds amounts to a subsidy that would help create a 'bubble' that could collapse if suddenly taken away.  MSRP for the SL is $19k, so I did screw up after accidentally deleting my Boobies.  It should have been $10k.

Fixing my screwup changes the math substantially.  Assuming the Leaf meets your range needs, you're looking at making your money back in 7.2 years, even at $4/gallon gasoline.

MrSteve007: That works out to be about 165 kWh *per capita* (about the same energy it takes to drive a Leaf 600 miles).


Or a Model S with one of the smaller battery packs.  That's one of the things about electric motors - they're generally more efficient the bigger/more powerful they are.

I like this, it's good evidence that the actual electric cost is far smaller as it works out to only about 5% of the distance needs of the average american(12k miles/year), and doesn't include all the other products the refineries produce.  There's other electric costs in there(such as filling pumps), but those are generally minor.  I'm on a well, I have to pay for the electricity for my well pump, and I go through a lot more water than I do gasoline, but my bill isn't crazy.

For that matter - if we were really using 5 kwH of electricity per gallon of gasoline, we'd never of been able to have $1/gallon gasoline.
 
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