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(Washington Post)   Is Obama helping to create a Tesla bubble? Well, is he?   (washingtonpost.com) divider line 135
    More: Scary, President Obama, economic bubble, California Air Resources Board, mass market, market value, Elon Musk  
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9217 clicks; posted to Main » on 17 May 2013 at 9:14 AM (48 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-05-17 10:03:21 AM

jelloslug: If Tesla can pull off the $30k car they are developing they will be rolling in money.


Good luck. It took Toyota years to manage that with the Prius, and that was with a huge amount of government help. GM hasn't managed it yet with the Volt (still a loss-leader). And both of them could exploit component part economies of scale.
 
2013-05-17 10:03:44 AM

This text is now purple: praymantis: Tesla at best will be a niche car maker for the wealthy like Lotus or Aston Martin.

It is a Lotus.


The roadster was a Lotus.  The Model S is of their own design.
 
2013-05-17 10:04:24 AM

Kirzania: Ordinary Genius: Every time I plug it in I can give a finger to OPEC

Uh.... Hang on, are you saying this because you don't have to pay for gasoline or because you think the electricity that comes out of your wall is provided by magic elves?


It may not be where you live, but my electric power comes from U.S. coal. So, yes, I can confidently say I can give a finger to OPEC, since I am not using foreign oil to power my vehicle.
 
2013-05-17 10:05:28 AM
Considering Tesla is getting ready to pay us back, I'd say "no".   Source

As for it being a rich man's car -- while this is true today, Tesla is also licensing its technology to other car manufacturers, so progress is being made to bring it to a mass market.   Source
 
2013-05-17 10:06:06 AM
The garage to my local grocery installed about 5 of those plugin stations a year ago. They've gone from standing empty, to being occasionally occupied, to being mostly occupied, to a warzone.  Amusing to watch, but it's just a matter of time before a Tesla owner nails a kid drag-racing to the one of the spots. Meanwhile requests for bike racks at the store have been rejected for, I don't know, the last five or six years.
 
2013-05-17 10:07:17 AM

praymantis: Hollie Maea: praymantis: Tesla at best will be a niche car maker for the wealthy like Lotus or Aston Martin. As rich as a Musk is the amount of capital you need to sell multiple models is astounding (R&D, Tooling, Marketing, employee costs, franchise laws etc.) The only way they become a real player in the car industry is if gas heads up to say $10-$15 per gallon. Based on the amount of oil reserves that have been recently I doubt that will happen anytime soon. With that said I am glad they had a profit last quarter but will the trend continue? Any ones guess!

You haven't researched their business plan at all, have you?

There are plenty of well written business plans out there of now defunct companies. I would rather invest in Ford than Tesla the dividend is way better.


Someone can't see the forest for the trees.
 
2013-05-17 10:09:04 AM

praymantis: Yes 10% of the population may be able to afford one but there are some fantastic cars in that price range. It is a competitive market.


And according to numerous reviews, the Model S is the best of the lot.
 
2013-05-17 10:19:51 AM

Ordinary Genius: It may not be where you live, but my electric power comes from U.S. coal. So, yes, I can confidently say I can give a finger to OPEC, since I am not using foreign oil to power my vehicle.


Just wanted to be sure you weren't one of those "I'm SAVING THE WORLD 'cause my electric car doesn't use gasoline!" Just glad you know where you power comes from...
Though, technically, since nat gas is so much cheaper than coal, most of those coal plants aren't necessarily burning the coal. They will stockpile the coal in the yard and heat the boilers by never turning off the nat gas pilots.
www.promoboxx.com
 
2013-05-17 10:25:01 AM
I have mixed feeling about this.  On one hand, it's hard to argue with Tesla's execution.  The Model S is probably one of the greatest and most innovative cars ever made.  The relatively simple, proven and elegant technology that drives it is easily extensible and can be used in a wide variety of cars in the near future.  It would be easy to hate Tesla if the car sucked but it simply doesn't.  On the other hand I'm not happy about my tax dollars going to help a billionaire get even richer selling luxury products to other rich guys.  There are undoubtedly many, many better ways to improve the world than propping up a niche manufacturer of ~$100K electric cars.
 
2013-05-17 10:30:16 AM
Soon:
cdn2.spong.com

/Tesla coil, prism tower, whatever.
 
2013-05-17 10:31:00 AM

Torgo: I have mixed feeling about this.  On one hand, it's hard to argue with Tesla's execution.  The Model S is probably one of the greatest and most innovative cars ever made.  The relatively simple, proven and elegant technology that drives it is easily extensible and can be used in a wide variety of cars in the near future.  It would be easy to hate Tesla if the car sucked but it simply doesn't.  On the other hand I'm not happy about my tax dollars going to help a billionaire get even richer selling luxury products to other rich guys.  There are undoubtedly many, many better ways to improve the world than propping up a niche manufacturer of ~$100K electric cars.


THIS
 
2013-05-17 10:36:57 AM

Torgo: I have mixed feeling about this.  On one hand, it's hard to argue with Tesla's execution.  The Model S is probably one of the greatest and most innovative cars ever made.  The relatively simple, proven and elegant technology that drives it is easily extensible and can be used in a wide variety of cars in the near future.  It would be easy to hate Tesla if the car sucked but it simply doesn't.  On the other hand I'm not happy about my tax dollars going to help a billionaire get even richer selling luxury products to other rich guys.  There are undoubtedly many, many better ways to improve the world than propping up a niche manufacturer of ~$100K electric cars.


The idea(and Tesla's business model) is to develop the technology for the more expensive sports cars which can absorb the costs more easily, then to work their way down to more practical and cheaper cars once the brand is established and the technology is proven.
 
2013-05-17 10:40:40 AM

Kirzania: Ordinary Genius: It may not be where you live, but my electric power comes from U.S. coal. So, yes, I can confidently say I can give a finger to OPEC, since I am not using foreign oil to power my vehicle.

Just wanted to be sure you weren't one of those "I'm SAVING THE WORLD 'cause my electric car doesn't use gasoline!" Just glad you know where you power comes from...
Though, technically, since nat gas is so much cheaper than coal, most of those coal plants aren't necessarily burning the coal. They will stockpile the coal in the yard and heat the boilers by never turning off the nat gas pilots.


Nah, i don't care about the environment. I have an electric vehicle because it costs me less For payments on the vehicle, the electricity to power it, and the insurance on it, than it cost me per month In gasoline for a regular vehicle.
 
2013-05-17 10:48:11 AM

Voiceofreason01: The idea(and Tesla's business model) is to develop the technology for the more expensive sports cars which can absorb the costs more easily, then to work their way down to more practical and cheaper cars once the brand is established and the technology is proven.


Right.  As I said above, I get that.  Hopefully this investment will pay off with bigger gains than a few thousand pricey cars zipping around the nicer parts of LA.  However, that doesn't change the situation on the ground right now.  Also, as a dyed-in-the-wool libertarian, I get a little itchy whenever something only can happen because the goverment plows taxpayer money into it.  As I said, it's possible and even likely that this may result in some truly disruptive (in a good way) changes to the car industry in the near future, but there are lots of similarly good ideas out there that aren't getting similar funding.

Also, small point, but the Model S (the only car the company currently makes) and upcoming Model X are both not sports cars.
 
2013-05-17 10:49:39 AM

Goodbooger: Wait this this hits the $30,000 price point.  The price of oil will drop dramatically when their monopoly of the auto market ends.


And electrical prices will soar as we have brownouts and 40 year old infrastructure all over the grid overheats and fails. bringing down entire sections of the national grid, like when the entire northeast went dark because 2 transmission lines failed.

/I for one look forward to rolling brown outs.
 
2013-05-17 10:52:36 AM

Kirzania: I'm SAVING THE WORLD 'cause my electric car doesn't use gasoline!"


Ah, yes, but some of us are are helping to save the world (and our pocketbooks) because we are driving electric cars that don't use gasoline, and aren't indirectly powered by any form of fossil fuel or nuclear power . . .
 
2013-05-17 10:52:38 AM

Ordinary Genius: Nah, i don't care about the environment. I have an electric vehicle because it costs me less For payments on the vehicle, the electricity to power it, and the insurance on it, than it cost me per month In gasoline for a regular vehicle.


Fark me, you must be the only one to employ logic in your motives for buying electric. Here's a cookie!
Everyone I know (of) buys electric to "save" the environment. It angers me.
 
2013-05-17 10:55:19 AM

Kirzania: cygnusx13: I am *thiiiiis* close to ordering my Performance S. Last hurdle is getting final OK from Mrs.

They are badass machines.

You've got MY ok. I've wanted a Tesla since I first saw the Roadster. I'm hooked. There's a Tesla "dealer" in the mall here next to my office; they see me coming and collectively sigh... I smudge the wax job.
/if we buy it, **I'm** driving it and the hubby can stick with his Matrix.
//Matrix permanently smells like post-soccer BO


Are you in Scottsdale?
 
2013-05-17 10:57:32 AM

fluffy2097: And electrical prices will soar as we have brownouts and 40 year old infrastructure all over the grid overheats and fails. bringing down entire sections of the national grid, like when the entire northeast went dark because 2 transmission lines failed.


There's always other reasons for brown-outs, but ... To your point, it's things like Houze which interest me greatly. Run power cell off nat gas, which we have in spades, sell power back to the grid. Nat gas goes up, so does your sale price back to the grid. I'm sure there are plenty of kinks with this but the idea is intriguing and would, if employed in great numbers, negate the grid deficit.
 
2013-05-17 10:59:38 AM

cygnusx13: Are you in Scottsdale?


That depends, if you buy it, are you gonna share? I also require the Tech Package.
 
2013-05-17 11:03:20 AM
Torgo:
Right.  As I said above, I get that.  Hopefully this investment will pay off with bigger gains than a few thousand pricey cars zipping around the nicer parts of LA.  However, that doesn't change the situation on the ground right now.  Also, as a dyed-in-the-wool libertarian, I get a little itchy whenever something only can happen because the goverment plows taxpayer money into it.....

Ah, I missed your earlier post. Government investment can be a good thing when it spurs innovation or helps bring products to market when development costs would otherwise be too high. I am not a libertarian but I do share your concerns that either Tesla will fold before they get to the point of making more practical cars or that even if Tesla survives that part of their business model never happens and they just sit on the patents.
 
2013-05-17 11:09:51 AM

Torgo: Voiceofreason01: The idea(and Tesla's business model) is to develop the technology for the more expensive sports cars which can absorb the costs more easily, then to work their way down to more practical and cheaper cars once the brand is established and the technology is proven.

Right.  As I said above, I get that.  Hopefully this investment will pay off with bigger gains than a few thousand pricey cars zipping around the nicer parts of LA.  However, that doesn't change the situation on the ground right now.  Also, as a dyed-in-the-wool libertarian, I get a little itchy whenever something only can happen because the goverment plows taxpayer money into it.  As I said, it's possible and even likely that this may result in some truly disruptive (in a good way) changes to the car industry in the near future, but there are lots of similarly good ideas out there that aren't getting similar funding.

Also, small point, but the Model S (the only car the company currently makes) and upcoming Model X are both not sports cars.


NASA must drive you insane, then.
 
2013-05-17 11:12:23 AM
Infernalist:
NASA must drive you insane, then.

I was going to let it go that op seems to have "I don't like rich people" and "libertarian" confused, but since you brought it up....
 
2013-05-17 11:14:16 AM

fluffy2097: Goodbooger: Wait this this hits the $30,000 price point.  The price of oil will drop dramatically when their monopoly of the auto market ends.

And electrical prices will soar as we have brownouts and 40 year old infrastructure all over the grid overheats and fails. bringing down entire sections of the national grid, like when the entire northeast went dark because 2 transmission lines failed.

/I for one look forward to rolling brown outs.


The 10kW connector gives you 31 miles of driving for every hour of charging. This is about twice the amount of electricity as your clothes dryer uses. Few people are going to need to charge all 300 miles every night. Most people drive about 30 miles a day. So a few extra loads of laundry in power. In spread out over a 10 hour night, 1kw is like having 10 light old style 100 watt bulbs left on all night.  In general most of our power usage is during the day and electrical companies as ecstatic that we are finding new ways to get rid of their excess night loads. Eventually yes, we may need to increase capacity by a small amount, but possibly not.
 
2013-05-17 11:18:10 AM

MindStalker: fluffy2097: Goodbooger: Wait this this hits the $30,000 price point.  The price of oil will drop dramatically when their monopoly of the auto market ends.

And electrical prices will soar as we have brownouts and 40 year old infrastructure all over the grid overheats and fails. bringing down entire sections of the national grid, like when the entire northeast went dark because 2 transmission lines failed.

/I for one look forward to rolling brown outs.

The 10kW connector gives you 31 miles of driving for every hour of charging. This is about twice the amount of electricity as your clothes dryer uses. Few people are going to need to charge all 300 miles every night. Most people drive about 30 miles a day. So a few extra loads of laundry in power. In spread out over a 10 hour night, 1kw is like having 10 light old style 100 watt bulbs left on all night.  In general most of our power usage is during the day and electrical companies as ecstatic that we are finding new ways to get rid of their excess night loads. Eventually yes, we may need to increase capacity by a small amount, but possibly not.


You are hilariously dumb and don't understand the concept of electrical loads.
 
2013-05-17 11:21:32 AM

Kirzania: fluffy2097: And electrical prices will soar as we have brownouts and 40 year old infrastructure all over the grid overheats and fails. bringing down entire sections of the national grid, like when the entire northeast went dark because 2 transmission lines failed.

There's always other reasons for brown-outs, but ... To your point, it's things like Houze which interest me greatly. Run power cell off nat gas, which we have in spades, sell power back to the grid. Nat gas goes up, so does your sale price back to the grid. I'm sure there are plenty of kinks with this but the idea is intriguing and would, if employed in great numbers, negate the grid deficit.


Fail fail fail fail.

The grid deficit is not only a lack of power plants. It's a lack of transmission lines. Which is why the failure of only 2 transmission lines can knock out the power for thousands and thousands of square miles around the fault.  That's what happened when the entire northeast grid went dark.

Pumping more power onto transmission lines is only going to exacerbate the problem. It's pushing more and more energy around the grid thats already overloaded.

/so are you going to allow a high voltage line to pass over your house? because we need new ones and we cant find the long tracts of land to put them down anymore thanks to not in my back yard.
 
2013-05-17 11:21:37 AM

Kirzania: Ordinary Genius: Every time I plug it in I can give a finger to OPEC

Uh.... Hang on, are you saying this because you don't have to pay for gasoline or because you think the electricity that comes out of your wall is provided by magic elves?


Do you think it comes from oil-fired plants?
 
2013-05-17 11:22:27 AM

fluffy2097: MindStalker: fluffy2097: Goodbooger: Wait this this hits the $30,000 price point.  The price of oil will drop dramatically when their monopoly of the auto market ends.

And electrical prices will soar as we have brownouts and 40 year old infrastructure all over the grid overheats and fails. bringing down entire sections of the national grid, like when the entire northeast went dark because 2 transmission lines failed.

/I for one look forward to rolling brown outs.

The 10kW connector gives you 31 miles of driving for every hour of charging. This is about twice the amount of electricity as your clothes dryer uses. Few people are going to need to charge all 300 miles every night. Most people drive about 30 miles a day. So a few extra loads of laundry in power. In spread out over a 10 hour night, 1kw is like having 10 light old style 100 watt bulbs left on all night.  In general most of our power usage is during the day and electrical companies as ecstatic that we are finding new ways to get rid of their excess night loads. Eventually yes, we may need to increase capacity by a small amount, but possibly not.

You are hilariously dumb and don't understand the concept of electrical loads.


Uh...Mindstalker is basically right. Most people will do their charging at night during off-peak hours. It'll be fine.
 
2013-05-17 11:29:42 AM

Voiceofreason01: You are hilariously dumb and don't understand the concept of electrical loads.

Uh...Mindstalker is basically right. Most people will do their charging at night during off-peak hours. It'll be fine.


And yes, I know a 10kW charger for an hour isn't the same as 1kW over 10 hours, though if the grid gets smart and spreads out who charges when (1/10th of the people charging each hour), to the electrical company its the same thing as all 10 people using 1kW over those 10 hours.
 
2013-05-17 11:30:33 AM

fluffy2097: Goodbooger: Wait this this hits the $30,000 price point.  The price of oil will drop dramatically when their monopoly of the auto market ends.

And electrical prices will soar as we have brownouts and 40 year old infrastructure all over the grid overheats and fails. bringing down entire sections of the national grid, like when the entire northeast went dark because 2 transmission lines failed.

/I for one look forward to rolling brown outs.


No, but let's pretend that's true.

Hint: Look up what grid capacity utilization is during night hours, which is when most EVs charge.
 
2013-05-17 11:35:31 AM

Kirzania: Everyone I know (of) buys electric to "save" the environment. It angers me.


Christ, really?  That angers you? WTF?
 
2013-05-17 11:36:15 AM

Kirzania: cygnusx13: Are you in Scottsdale?

That depends, if you buy it, are you gonna share? I also require the Tech Package.


NOT having the tech package is like having a steak without a good red wine. Of course that will be in! In fact, I haven't been able to build one for
 
2013-05-17 11:41:53 AM
Article seems to have glossed over the revenue Tesla makes with its "partnerships" with Toyota and Mercedes.
 
2013-05-17 11:45:29 AM

fluffy2097: The grid deficit is not only a lack of power plants. It's a lack of transmission lines. Which is why the failure of only 2 transmission lines can knock out the power for thousands and thousands of square miles around the fault. That's what happened when the entire northeast grid went dark.

Pumping more power onto transmission lines is only going to exacerbate the problem. It's pushing more and more energy around the grid thats already overloaded.


Ok, well... All it takes is one squirrel to make a power plant operator's life miserable. Or multiple raccoon families. Whatever. When you sell back to the grid, that's less plants are having to push out onto the grid. It's not like a struggle for "direction." Power plants only generate power when the grid demands it. If there are power producers (i.e.: Houze cells) providing power to the grid during peak hours, that power plant operator isn't going to sit there and say "SHE CANNA TAKE ANY MORE CAP'N" and hope to God he doesn't blow anything up by continuing to fire more coal/gas/comb; he will drop gen off.

Also, this:

Hollie Maea: Hint: Look up what grid capacity utilization is during night hours, which is when most EVs charge.

 
2013-05-17 11:48:02 AM
I saw a "Bin Laden is Dead and GM is alive" bumper sticker on a Mitsubishi.

I know.
 
2013-05-17 11:48:13 AM

jelloslug: This text is now purple: praymantis: Tesla at best will be a niche car maker for the wealthy like Lotus or Aston Martin.

It is a Lotus.

The roadster was a Lotus.  The Model S is of their own design.


The Roadster was designed by Tesla, using a licensed variant of a Lotus platform.  Tesla designed the chassis, the bodywork, and most of the drivetrain.  Lotus simply built the gliders under contract according to Tesla's specs.
 
2013-05-17 11:50:58 AM

Hollie Maea: Kirzania: Everyone I know (of) buys electric to "save" the environment. It angers me.

Christ, really?  That angers you? WTF?


It's like establishments using hand-dryers instead of providing paper towels and say they're doing it to "save energy" or trees or whatever. The electricity out of the wall ain't free; you're just deferring where the waste/environment-killing is happening. I'm all for saving the environment or keeping it clean or whatever, don't get me wrong. But you can't swap out one for the other and say how you're doing such good when, in reality, you didn't change anything. It's all perception/marketing.
Like Green Energy.
//God, don't even get me started.
 
2013-05-17 11:59:24 AM

Kirzania: Hollie Maea: Kirzania: Everyone I know (of) buys electric to "save" the environment. It angers me.

Christ, really?  That angers you? WTF?

It's like establishments using hand-dryers instead of providing paper towels and say they're doing it to "save energy" or trees or whatever. The electricity out of the wall ain't free; you're just deferring where the waste/environment-killing is happening. I'm all for saving the environment or keeping it clean or whatever, don't get me wrong. But you can't swap out one for the other and say how you're doing such good when, in reality, you didn't change anything. It's all perception/marketing.
Like Green Energy.
//God, don't even get me started.


If you are going to bother being outraged about what other people are doing, you should at least run the numbers.

Or, you know, don't waste your life worrying about other people's reasons for doing things that don't really affect you at all.
 
2013-05-17 12:00:47 PM

Kirzania: But you can't swap out one for the other and say how you're doing such good when, in reality, you didn't change anything. It's all perception/marketing.


It's not a 1:1 swap. A power plant is a much more efficient user of natural resources than your car.
 
2013-05-17 12:12:34 PM

Johnsnownw: Article seems to have glossed over the revenue Tesla makes with its "partnerships" with Toyota and Mercedes.


Yes, how dare Tesla negate externalities creates by other car manufacturers, and get paid for doing so. That's unsound economics.. Oh I mean, that recommended by most economist.
 
2013-05-17 12:18:57 PM

BigNumber12: A power plant is a much more efficient user of natural resources than your car.


Not to mention that refining gasoline takes electricity as well.  A gallon of gas takes about 5kWh to refine, so an EV can go about 15 miles just on the ELECTRICITY that a gas powered car uses per gallon.
 
2013-05-17 12:23:44 PM
is a Tesla bubble anything like a Faraday cage?
 
2013-05-17 12:45:44 PM

Kirzania: Hollie Maea: Kirzania: Everyone I know (of) buys electric to "save" the environment. It angers me.

Christ, really?  That angers you? WTF?

It's like establishments using hand-dryers instead of providing paper towels and say they're doing it to "save energy" or trees or whatever. The electricity out of the wall ain't free; you're just deferring where the waste/environment-killing is happening. I'm all for saving the environment or keeping it clean or whatever, don't get me wrong. But you can't swap out one for the other and say how you're doing such good when, in reality, you didn't change anything. It's all perception/marketing.
Like Green Energy.
//God, don't even get me started.


It's not all marketing.  There are measurable differences in environmental impact between paper towels and electric dryers, just like there are between gas-powered and electric cars.  And while most electric dryers do such a bad job (the Dyson Airblade being a notable exception) that paper towels might be preferred in spite of higher environmental impact, the Tesla Model S doesn't have that problem--it's an incredibly well-designed vehicle that appeals to just about anyone who might have bought a gasoline-powered car at the same price point, and it happens to use far less energy by any measure than a gasoline-powered car.
 
2013-05-17 12:56:49 PM

Hollie Maea: Hint: Look up what grid capacity utilization is during night hours, which is when most EVs charge.


Hint:  I already have. You're the one looking a fool for thinking that utilization drops at night.

Now please, pull up a website from some utility coop in iowa that charges different amounts for power at different times of day, and say that price has something to do with capacity, while looking at your shiatty broadband internet connection that costs far more then it ever should.
 
2013-05-17 01:14:33 PM
Is Obama building a wall all the way to the enemy's base, and putting a Tesla Cannon at the end of it?  Well, is he?
 
2013-05-17 01:16:11 PM
Is Boehner filling APCs full of Engineers, rushing them into the enemy's base, unloading them, taking over his buildings, and selling them?  Well, is he?
 
2013-05-17 01:18:06 PM

fluffy2097: Hollie Maea: Hint: Look up what grid capacity utilization is during night hours, which is when most EVs charge.

Hint:  I already have. You're the one looking a fool for thinking that utilization drops at night.

Now please, pull up a website from some utility coop in iowa that charges different amounts for power at different times of day, and say that price has something to do with capacity, while looking at your shiatty broadband internet connection that costs far more then it ever should.


While this isn't quite an Iowa Co-op - here's the live grid feed from the Bonneville Power Administration (serving all of the states of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and parts of Montana & Utah). You can clearly see regional loads, the red line, dropping at night:

transmission.bpa.gov
/it's also interesting to see that our region's thermal plant output (mostly coal and nuclear) is almost zero right now.
 
2013-05-17 01:29:45 PM
Now where is total transmission capacity on your fancy chart there?  How much higher can that red line go without shiat melting?

Amazing how hydro power is producing over double the energy required for the load. Care to explain that, given that electricity cannot be stored on the grid?

/Oh right, all that power is being transmitted somewhere else...
//Oh, what's the harm in increasing the load on 4 decade old transmission lines. They've lasted this long. They'll keep lasting.
 
2013-05-17 01:48:38 PM

fluffy2097: You're the one looking a fool for thinking that utilization drops at night.


Backs away slowly.

Yeah, you really need to stop talking now.
 
2013-05-17 01:57:00 PM
obama hussein is part of the rebel alliance and a traitor,
but mostly a traitor.
like to see the motherfarker crucified
 
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