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(Marketwatch)   Market guru who successfully predicted Dow 15,000, now says it will be Dow 116,200 by 2045   (marketwatch.com) divider line 58
    More: Interesting, Dow Jones, internet bubble, hyperinflation, Society of American Business Editors  
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1543 clicks; posted to Business » on 09 May 2013 at 9:30 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-05-09 06:09:32 PM  
www.localandjust.ca
I thought you said 'swell', not 'sell' .
 
2013-05-09 06:17:52 PM  
loook at the nas

2013

bigcharts.marketwatch.com


compare to 99:

bigcharts.marketwatch.com
 
2013-05-09 06:18:38 PM  
That's not much of a prediction, that's more or less 7% growth/yr for the next 32 yrs.

/just did the math
 
2013-05-09 06:34:36 PM  

dj_bigbird: That's not much of a prediction, that's more or less 7% growth/yr for the next 32 yrs.

/just did the math


NICE
i want one of those lamborghini diablos
 
2013-05-09 06:41:05 PM  
The Dow won't exist in 2045... hell, I'll be surprised if it makes it to 2020.

Unless something changes at the basic level it is no longer an accurate indicator of economic actions. (So I'm told..)
 
2013-05-09 06:48:03 PM  
I'll be queen of Taiwan by 2045.
 
2013-05-09 07:21:28 PM  
Oh, yeah? Well, I predict it will hit 116,207 by 2045!
 
2013-05-09 07:32:18 PM  

Shadow Blasko: The Dow won't exist in 2045... hell, I'll be surprised if it makes it to 2020.

Unless something changes at the basic level it is no longer an accurate indicator of economic actions. (So I'm told..)


Maybe in Louis Rukeyser's world it needed to "mean" something. Here, it just needs the CME to make book on it.
 
2013-05-09 08:30:59 PM  
If you take 100 randomly generated prediction for the stockmarket for 10 and 20 years from now, at least one of them should be pretty close at the 10 year mark. That doesn't mean using it's 20 year prediction would not be a fool's errand.
 
2013-05-09 09:38:26 PM  
But the value will be in bitcoins.
 
2013-05-09 09:41:52 PM  

simplicimus: But the value will be in bitcoins.


at $250 a coin mind u
 
2013-05-09 09:59:27 PM  

Jon iz teh kewl: simplicimus: But the value will be in bitcoins.

at $250 a coin mind u


Fools. I'm keeping my money in the Beanie Baby and Holofoil Charizard index. Enjoy your bubbles and massive market corrections.
 
2013-05-09 10:33:08 PM  
When people write shiat like this:

www.ritholtz.com

They're lying. They don't actually believe this. The point of publishing this bullshiat (and going on press junkets/talk shows to hype it up) is to increase confidence in the markets so people will invest more. It's no different than casinos running promotions to induce action.

The ignorant marks read the books/articles, get all excited and pour money into the system, artificially jacking up stocks, so that the authors of this manipulative swill can cash out early, essentially pulling the rug out from underneath the suckers, leaving them with crashing stocks and dead cat bounces.

The "high finance information" industry is a bigger scam than the actual high finance industry. If you're not an insider, your only purpose is to stuff the insiders' profits.


Suffice to say: No, the market will not get much higher. 80 million boomers are set to retire within the next decade, and seniors aren't interested in investing (especially not long-term), they want to spend their investments. This recent spike is one last grab at juicing the ratios before everyone cashes out (because they lost too much of it over the last decade so they want to make it all back and more). Then we'll have our own little lost decade as the Boomers pull out en masse. The Millenials aren't quite at the age where they're thinking savings and investments (and most of them don't have stable employment enough to rack up much of a savings to speak of), and the Xers are too few in number.

Things will be stagnant for awhile, if not deflationary. Demographics is causing it, not economic policy.
 
2013-05-09 10:35:36 PM  
heh. Above image is a parody of the real book:

matthewashton.files.wordpress.com

I didn't even notice that.
 
2013-05-09 10:45:45 PM  
I'm sure this matters very much to people with investments.
 
2013-05-09 10:52:03 PM  
And in 2046 it will be 15,000 again.
 
2013-05-09 10:56:42 PM  

A Shambling Mound: I'm sure this matters very much to people with investments.


I'm closer to 50 than 40 and I haven't had two weeks in a row of in twenty years. Damn right I have some investments. Will they be enough? Who knows. Probably not.
 
2013-05-09 11:05:00 PM  

Shadow Blasko: The Dow won't exist in 2045... hell, I'll be surprised if it makes it to 2020.

Unless something changes at the basic level it is no longer an accurate indicator of economic actions. (So I'm told..)


No the value as an economic indicator died with the birth of the "day trader". However it was useful as an inductor of people's overall view of the economy. However with now with micro trades and other such foolishness it is completely useless.
 
2013-05-09 11:07:49 PM  
I'm still not sure why Wall St thinks growth can just keep on going and not hit a limit at some point. Of course, these are the same people that will short a company that makes a profit every quarter, just because they're not growing their profit quite enough.

What happens when nobody has any money to invest because we've shipped all of the jobs overseas, and hired H1B holders to do the rest?

/I study wildlife and environmental science, so I'm admittedly biased toward the log curve and away from the exponential model. //Exponential growth tends lo lead to a nasty crash when resource limits are exceeded
 
2013-05-09 11:13:10 PM  
I predict that the Dow will reach an arbitrary number by an arbitrary date.  Please contact my agent to arrange for speaking engagements.
 
2013-05-09 11:23:24 PM  
i291.photobucket.com
 
2013-05-09 11:30:46 PM  

Ishkur: They're lying. They don't actually believe this. The point of publishing this bullshiat (and going on press junkets/talk shows to hype it up) is to increase confidence in the markets so people will invest more. It's no different than casinos running promotions to induce action.


I disagree. The point is to sell books. They will also sell doom and gloom books during a bad market, saying to invest in gold or something. The point is, they don't have to actually time the market, the profit it there.
 
2013-05-09 11:31:55 PM  
Nothing would surprise me, but anyone who claims they know what will happen either way is FOS. There is no historical precedent for the current market because there has never been a global economic system as complex as this.
 
2013-05-09 11:31:58 PM  

Ishkur: heh. Above image is a parody of the real book:

[matthewashton.files.wordpress.com image 279x400]

I didn't even notice that.


impaler: I disagree. The point is to sell books. They will also sell doom and gloom books during a bad market, saying to invest in gold or something. The point is, they don't have to actually time the market, the profit it there.


Case in point? Sort of? Maybe?
 
2013-05-09 11:33:15 PM  

Thanks for the Meme-ries:


It's only a bubble if something else out there is being undervalued.
 
2013-05-09 11:34:15 PM  

SacriliciousBeerSwiller: Thanks for the Meme-ries:

It's only a bubble if something else out there is being undervalued.


The middle class?
 
2013-05-09 11:36:45 PM  
i248.photobucket.com
 
2013-05-09 11:50:31 PM  
Because an "indicator" that doesn't consider market capitalization matters.
 
2013-05-10 12:00:12 AM  

impaler: I disagree. The point is to sell books. They will also sell doom and gloom books during a bad market, saying to invest in gold or something. The point is, they don't have to actually time the market, the profit it there.


Yes, they make money selling books, but they can make more money profiting off the panic/assurance the books are hawking.
 
2013-05-10 12:07:05 AM  

Ishkur: impaler: I disagree. The point is to sell books. They will also sell doom and gloom books during a bad market, saying to invest in gold or something. The point is, they don't have to actually time the market, the profit it there.

Yes, they make money selling books, but they can make more money profiting off the panic/assurance the books are hawking.


They can make money both ways. Buy stock, write book to hype the market... profit. Sell short, write books to sell fear... profit.

That's the beauty of capitalism!
 
2013-05-10 12:21:35 AM  

impaler: That's the beauty of capitalism!


Indeed, it exemplifies precisely the heartlessness, the detached sociopathy, and the rank coldness and utter disregard for morality, integrity, honesty and humanity that hallmarks Capitalism's most evocative and destructive traits. People always seem to forget this: Capitalism has absolutely no ethical value whatsoever. Its goal is to amass capital and it considers all things expendable -- including human life -- in pursuit of this aim. It is like a hammer: You can use it to build a house or bash someone's skull in. Sometimes it does both.
 
2013-05-10 12:30:30 AM  

Ishkur: You can use it to build a house or bash someone's skull in. Sometimes it does both.


This is true. I've been playing Dwarf Frotress, and one of my dwarfs got into a fell mode and built a legendary door using the skull of one of my best miners.
 
2013-05-10 12:39:52 AM  
2045? Chances are I'll be dead.
 
2013-05-10 12:42:25 AM  
Did you know that disco record sales were up 400% for the year ending 1976? If these trends continue... A-y-y-y!
 
2013-05-10 12:53:47 AM  

Shadow Blasko: The Dow won't exist in 2045... hell, I'll be surprised if it makes it to 2020.

Unless something changes at the basic level it is no longer an accurate indicator of economic actions. (So I'm told..)


It never was.   Before instant information it was just a quick way to glance at what the market did.
 
2013-05-10 03:31:28 AM  
When the Dow is 116,200, will a Latte at Starbucks be $200?

i.imgur.com
 
2013-05-10 03:36:27 AM  
i3.ytimg.com

Buy Waffles, tasty waffles, with lots of syrup!
 
2013-05-10 03:44:28 AM  

Jon iz teh kewl: loook at the nas

2013

[bigcharts.marketwatch.com image 579x335]


compare to 99:

[bigcharts.marketwatch.com image 579x335]


Oh no!  It's a bull market and the trend line looks a lot like other bull markets.  Run for the hills
 
2013-05-10 03:47:08 AM  

Shadow Blasko: The Dow won't exist in 2045... hell, I'll be surprised if it makes it to 2020.

Unless something changes at the basic level it is no longer an accurate indicator of economic actions. (So I'm told..)


It's existed for 117 years.  I don't see why it can't make it another 32
 
2013-05-10 03:54:17 AM  

impaler: Ishkur: impaler: I disagree. The point is to sell books. They will also sell doom and gloom books during a bad market, saying to invest in gold or something. The point is, they don't have to actually time the market, the profit it there.

Yes, they make money selling books, but they can make more money profiting off the panic/assurance the books are hawking.

They can make money both ways. Buy stock, write book to hype the market... profit. Sell short, write books to sell fear... profit.

That's the beauty of capitalism!


What do you guys think?  That there's a couple of guys writing books and then they sit around in a smoke filled room, wearing their green visors just waiting for you to plunk down your hard earned money so they can pull a lever and tank the stock you bought?
 
2013-05-10 04:47:23 AM  

relaxitsjustme: What do you guys think? That there's a couple of guys writing books and then they sit around in a smoke filled room, wearing their green visors just waiting for you to plunk down your hard earned money so they can pull a lever and tank the stock you bought?


It's called a pump and dump
 
2013-05-10 04:53:25 AM  
The average growth rate of the DJIA over the last few decades is about 6.5%. If you compound 15000 for 45 years at 6.5%, you get around 115k. Remember that about half of that growth is just inflation (~3% per year), so a prediction like this is fairly boring and just saying what happened on average in the last few decades might continue to happen on average, which is probably a reasonable assumption.
 
2013-05-10 06:09:29 AM  

Ishkur: relaxitsjustme: What do you guys think? That there's a couple of guys writing books and then they sit around in a smoke filled room, wearing their green visors just waiting for you to plunk down your hard earned money so they can pull a lever and tank the stock you bought?

It's called a pump and dump


Those clever bastards.  They've pumped and dumped the S&P500 up 14% YTD.  Let me know when you finally get brave enough to buy because that will be about when the market tops.
 
2013-05-10 06:46:40 AM  
buzzcut73:
What happens when nobody has any money to invest because we've shipped all of the jobs overseas, and hired H1B holders to do the rest?

That doesn't matter because revenue growth is coming from outside the U.S. and the companies driving the Dow higher are getting the majority of their growth from overseas. Expenses are higher in the U.S so the overseas + H1B strategy that corporations have connived the government into supporting increases the profit margin which attracts investors. That is one reason why growth of the Dow means nothing (or very little) in terms of jobs in the U.S.
 
2013-05-10 07:04:05 AM  
If I could bet at even odds that he's wrong, I'd put my life savings on it.
 
2013-05-10 09:07:28 AM  

van1ty: If I could bet at even odds that he's wrong, I'd put my life savings on it.


And that right there is a perfect example of how little people know about the time value of money.  Suppose you "win" that bet, and your bet is $100,000, so you win $200,000 32 years from now.  Your annualized return on that investment would be just over 2% per year, or slightly less than inflation.

Tell you what, you give me your life savings now, and I will promise to give you double that in 32 years, and you don't even have to bet anything!!!!!!
 
2013-05-10 09:14:34 AM  

dj_bigbird: That's not much of a prediction, that's more or less 7% growth/yr for the next 32 yrs.

/just did the math


Why?

FTA: "Using the Rule of 115 - a rough measure of how long it takes for something to triple based on a constant return - that's a gain of roughly 7% per year...if that rate of return holds for the future - and it's smack in the middle of the 6% to 8% long-term range that many market observers believe is realistic - then the Dow would triple twice more over the next 32 years. If that happens, the Dow will cross 116,200 sometime in 2045, a bit after Berger's time frame but not wildly off base."
 
2013-05-10 09:51:26 AM  

relaxitsjustme: Ishkur: relaxitsjustme: What do you guys think? That there's a couple of guys writing books and then they sit around in a smoke filled room, wearing their green visors just waiting for you to plunk down your hard earned money so they can pull a lever and tank the stock you bought?

It's called a pump and dump

Those clever bastards.  They've pumped and dumped the S&P500 up 14% YTD.  Let me know when you finally get brave enough to buy because that will be about when the market tops.


FYI, I don't think these books are doing a pump & dump. It's pretty hard to do that to the entire equities market.

Like I said, they're just trying to make money with books.
 
2013-05-10 10:50:11 AM  

buzzcut73: I'm still not sure why Wall St thinks growth can just keep on going and not hit a limit at some point. Of course, these are the same people that will short a company that makes a profit every quarter, just because they're not growing their profit quite enough.

What happens when nobody has any money to invest because we've shipped all of the jobs overseas, and hired H1B holders to do the rest?

/I study wildlife and environmental science, so I'm admittedly biased toward the log curve and away from the exponential model. //Exponential growth tends lo lead to a nasty crash when resource limits are exceeded


Sounds like someone bought the shares of aapl at $650. Stick to what you know bub. Apple was one of the most widely held stocks in pension funds - you fully don't understand this game of you think shorts could put meaningful pressure on it. And yes, when your profit growth shrinks from 70 per cent to barely double digits in less than three years the stock price will fall.
 
2013-05-10 01:26:24 PM  

IamSoSmart_S_M_R_T: dj_bigbird: That's not much of a prediction, that's more or less 7% growth/yr for the next 32 yrs.

/just did the math

Why?

FTA: "Using the Rule of 115 - a rough measure of how long it takes for something to triple based on a constant return - that's a gain of roughly 7% per year...if that rate of return holds for the future - and it's smack in the middle of the 6% to 8% long-term range that many market observers believe is realistic - then the Dow would triple twice more over the next 32 years. If that happens, the Dow will cross 116,200 sometime in 2045, a bit after Berger's time frame but not wildly off base."


I can't be the only one wondering where they got 7% annual rate of return from. That hasn't been true for the last decade.
 
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