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(Hardball Talk)   The worst ERA in both the AL and NL belong to pitchers who have thrown a perfect game   (hardballtalk.nbcsports.com) divider line 119
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2439 clicks; posted to Sports » on 07 May 2013 at 1:02 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-05-07 02:43:57 PM  

Dr Dreidel: chimp_ninja: DeWayne Mann: I'd make a Fred Lewis reference here, but no one else would get it.

Now that I've been persuaded to read Fred Lewis's Wiki page, my SF bar trivia question is: "Who is the only Giant to hit 2 grand slams in his rookie season?  You get 250 guesses."

I'd have guessed Will Clark, but only because he homered in his first AB (with the Giants).


I probably would have guessed Willie Mays, on the grounds that Willie Mays is Willie Mays.  Sadly, he went 0-for-7 with the bases loaded as a rookie.  McCovey, Jack Clark, or Mel Ott would probably be good early guesses.

No pancakes for me.
 
2013-05-07 02:54:18 PM  

bigmf: Mark Buerhle's name doesn't show up in the article.  So the Jays have that going for them, which is nice.


Honestly, he was the first guy I thought of after reading the headline.

/him and Halladay, actually
 
2013-05-07 03:07:36 PM  

bigmf: Mark Buerhle's name doesn't show up in the article.  So the Jays have that going for them, which is nice.


Last night I almost pulled the trigger after the 7 run inning. Everybody, be nice to JP. He's the only reason I didn't an hero
 
2013-05-07 03:37:11 PM  
Ok, had to disappear for a bit there. NOT DEAD YET.

Mid_mo_mad_man: I will let you have Greg Holland & Ned Yost. Shields should have been sent back out to the mound


The bullpen is one of the few parts of that time I actually like, Holland included. Which is part of why I thought the Shields trade made little sense for them.

You're the jerk... jerk: DeWayne Mann: I'm still amazed by that. I'll be on my death bed (most likely in about 3 months) and still be laughing about it. Even funnier are the people who still try to defend it.

He was going to be the oldest and 4th or 5th best first baseman on the free agent market over the next 2 years, obviously the Phillies needed to keep him.


I love how after Pujols & Prince signed, Amaro was like "See, we didn't want to get involved in a bidding war like with those guys." Because, clearly, signing him to an equally bad contract ahead of time is a much smarter move.

chimp_ninja: Sadly, he went 0-for-7 with the bases loaded as a rookie.


That's because he's not a clutch gritty gamer.
 
2013-05-07 03:38:06 PM  

DeWayne Mann: few parts of that time I actually like


....team.

few parts of that team.

clearly, I had a stroke already.
 
2013-05-07 03:52:55 PM  

DeWayne Mann: Ok, had to disappear for a bit there. NOT DEAD YET.

Mid_mo_mad_man: I will let you have Greg Holland & Ned Yost. Shields should have been sent back out to the mound

The bullpen is one of the few parts of that time I actually like, Holland included. Which is part of why I thought the Shields trade made little sense for them.

You're the jerk... jerk: DeWayne Mann: I'm still amazed by that. I'll be on my death bed (most likely in about 3 months) and still be laughing about it. Even funnier are the people who still try to defend it.

He was going to be the oldest and 4th or 5th best first baseman on the free agent market over the next 2 years, obviously the Phillies needed to keep him.

I love how after Pujols & Prince signed, Amaro was like "See, we didn't want to get involved in a bidding war like with those guys." Because, clearly, signing him to an equally bad contract ahead of time is a much smarter move.

chimp_ninja: Sadly, he went 0-for-7 with the bases loaded as a rookie.

That's because he's not a clutch gritty gamer.




Are you saying the Meyers/Sheilds trade is bad move? Because this rebuilt rotation is going to win KC more games then Willy Meyers. Moore's major trades are look better everyday ie Grienke for Escobar & Cain Sanchez for Guthrie etc
 
2013-05-07 03:56:12 PM  

DeWayne Mann: I love how after Pujols & Prince signed, Amaro was like "See, we didn't want to get involved in a bidding war like with those guys." Because, clearly, signing him to an equally bad contract ahead of time is a much smarter move.


I think that saying "equally bad contract" is misleading because the Howard contract was the worst of the three.
 
2013-05-07 03:58:54 PM  

DeWayne Mann: I love how after Pujols & Prince signed, Amaro was like "See, we didn't want to get involved in a bidding war like with those guys." Because, clearly, signing him to an equally bad contract ahead of time is a much smarter move.


I'm pretty sure Howard was signed before either of those guys (Cots, at least has all their contracts starting in 2012 and Howards was signed way in advance).  This makes it all the dumber because they would have been bidding for Howard when there were clear better players on the market AND Howard tore his Achilles in the playoffs in 2011 which they would have known if they'd waited until the offseason to try to resign him.  Now they owe $110M to a DH who never learned to lay off the high fastball or outside slider.
 
2013-05-07 04:03:11 PM  
nevermind I totally misread that.
 
2013-05-07 04:12:30 PM  
I said it last year when it happened that Humber's perfecto was the most unlikely PG I could think of.
 
2013-05-07 04:12:49 PM  

Mid_mo_mad_man: Are you saying the Meyers/Sheilds trade is bad move?


Yes I am. Shields is a slightly above average pitcher (career FIP- of 92, and that includes this year) with the ability to pitch fairly deep into ballgames. That's far, far more useful on a team with a bad bullpen, which is not how I would describe the Royals.

There are other routes I would've looked into before trading Wil Myers for pitching (signing Kyle Lohse, for instance). But even if it got to the point where trading Myers was the only way to upgrade the rotation, there are several other pitchers that made far more sense. For instance, while I don't know how far the talks progressed, I know Jon Lester was mentioned at one point; his career FIP is 84.

meanmutton: I think that saying "equally bad contract" is misleading because the Howard contract was the worst of the three.


It's shorter, though, which is its lone saving grace.

you have pee hands: DeWayne Mann: I love how after Pujols & Prince signed, Amaro was like "See, we didn't want to get involved in a bidding war like with those guys." Because, clearly, signing him to an equally bad contract ahead of time is a much smarter move.

I'm pretty sure Howard was signed before either of those guys (Cots, at least has all their contracts starting in 2012 and Howards was signed way in advance).  This makes it all the dumber because they would have been bidding for Howard when there were clear better players on the market AND Howard tore his Achilles in the playoffs in 2011 which they would have known if they'd waited until the offseason to try to resign him.  Now they owe $110M to a DH who never learned to lay off the high fastball or outside slider.


The Howard contract was signed 2 years before it actually kicked in. All three started in the 2012 season.
 
2013-05-07 04:13:19 PM  

DeWayne Mann: studleystudstutterson: Maybe you should just avoid threads that have the terms "Gold Glove", "Jeter", "Most Valuable", "ERA", and/or "Triple Crown" in the future. For your blood pressure.

Oh man, there are so many more. Pete Rose. Ichiro. Batting Average. Steroids.



WAR?
 
2013-05-07 04:16:23 PM  

degenerate-afro: DeWayne Mann: studleystudstutterson: Maybe you should just avoid threads that have the terms "Gold Glove", "Jeter", "Most Valuable", "ERA", and/or "Triple Crown" in the future. For your blood pressure.

Oh man, there are so many more. Pete Rose. Ichiro. Batting Average. Steroids.


WAR?


I don't totally see how mentioning WAR would cause me issues.

dWAR, maybe.
 
2013-05-07 04:16:25 PM  

germ78: I said it last year when it happened that Humber's perfecto was the most unlikely PG I could think of.


Only because David Wells was on the Yankees in 1998.
 
2013-05-07 04:24:01 PM  

DeWayne Mann: degenerate-afro: DeWayne Mann: studleystudstutterson: Maybe you should just avoid threads that have the terms "Gold Glove", "Jeter", "Most Valuable", "ERA", and/or "Triple Crown" in the future. For your blood pressure.

Oh man, there are so many more. Pete Rose. Ichiro. Batting Average. Steroids.


WAR?

I don't totally see how mentioning WAR would cause me issues.

dWAR, maybe.


People think dWAR is a bad statistic until you have Mark Reynolds playing for your team.
 
2013-05-07 04:28:23 PM  
I believe that Farker, MFAWG was at the Humber perfect game.
 
2013-05-07 04:33:22 PM  

degenerate-afro: People think dWAR is a bad statistic until you have Mark Reynolds playing for your team.


My issue with dWAR is not one of value; it's one of meaning.

dWAR doesn't actually mean anything. I understand what it represents and how it's calculated, but it cannot be easily explained in a sentence.

A few examples:

Replacement player - A freely available player for a given position (a waiver claim, or a AAA player, etc)

WAR - The number of runs a given player is better than a replacement player, divided by (roughly) 10.

FIP - An approximation of how many runs a pitcher would allow in 9 innings, given neutral luck and defense.

dWAR - ??????

I'm too lazy to check the exact numbers right now, but Albert Pujols (one of the best defensive 1Bs of his generation) has a CAREER dWAR of like 2. Teixeira, who is also quite good, is slightly negative, I believe. David Ortiz, who may not even own a glove, is like negative 30.

So...given the short descriptions I wrote above, how should dWAR be described?
 
2013-05-07 04:51:28 PM  

DeWayne Mann: Mid_mo_mad_man: Are you saying the Meyers/Sheilds trade is bad move?

Yes I am. Shields is a slightly above average pitcher (career FIP- of 92, and that includes this year) with the ability to pitch fairly deep into ballgames. That's far, far more useful on a team with a bad bullpen, which is not how I would describe the Royals.

There are other routes I would've looked into before trading Wil Myers for pitching (signing Kyle Lohse, for instance). But even if it got to the point where trading Myers was the only way to upgrade the rotation, there are several other pitchers that made far more sense. For instance, while I don't know how far the talks progressed, I know Jon Lester was mentioned at one point; his career FIP is 84.

Signing Kyle Loshe, Annabel Sanchez or Zack Greinke would have made more sense then the trade.
However,your forgetting one thing.This is KC and we can't spend that kinda money. Payroll is going to be about 82 million. At that number Glass says he will lose money on the team this year. No way we could have signed a major FA. Trading was Moore's best option on fixing the rotation. Meyers for Sheilds is better then Butler/Perez that Tampa originally wanted

 
2013-05-07 04:54:18 PM  

DeWayne Mann: So...given the short descriptions I wrote above, how should dWAR be described?


How likely it is for you to bean yourself in the head while attempting to throw out a runner?
Or would that be Rtot?

Anyway, I believe dWAR is a historical average instead of a yearly average which is why someone who is considered "decent" may still be a -2 or so.
 
2013-05-07 05:13:24 PM  

Mid_mo_mad_man: Signing Kyle Loshe, Annabel Sanchez or Zack Greinke would have made more sense then the trade.
However,your forgetting one thing.This is KC and we can't spend that kinda money. Payroll is going to be about 82 million. At that number Glass says he will lose money on the team this year. No way we could have signed a major FA. Trading was Moore's best option on fixing the rotation. Meyers for Sheilds is better then Butler/Perez that Tampa originally wanted


Ok, Shields makes 10 mil this year.

Let's also point out that Hochever makes 4.5mil this year for absolutely no reason. So, lets assume in an alternate timelime, Hoch got non-tendered like he should've.

So, who else could they have had that makes 14.5 mil or less?

Ryan Dempster signed for 2/26 (so, 13)
Brandon McCarthy signed for 2/15.5 on a weird contract due to his injury.
Edwin Jackson signed for 4/52 (13 again)
Lohse signed for 3/33 (so, 11), though he was a bit cheaper because of the type A thing. Still, I'd probably rather give up a draft pick than Myers, so that's a bit of a wash.

Those are the FAs I would've considered. As for trade targets, I don't know who was available (though, by danging Myers, I'd have to think several would be), but I do know Lester is cheaper than that mark.

Like I said: the numbers suggest Shields isn't a great match for KC. So if the Rays ask for a lot for him, it is possible to say no and look elsewhere.
 
2013-05-07 05:19:29 PM  

degenerate-afro: Anyway, I believe dWAR is a historical average instead of a yearly average which is why someone who is considered "decent" may still be a -2 or so.


DRS is sort of based on historical averages (except it's only existed since 2002), but that's not the reason why.

To use another example, Jorge Posada was a bad (but not terrible) defensive catcher. rField has him at -60. His dWAR is 2.1.
 
2013-05-07 05:25:46 PM  
chimp_ninja:
italie: Strikeout pitchers tend to have higher ERAs. They generally to pitch very close to the ....DANGER ZONE....and rely on their fastball or a decent break to confuse the hitter.When the command it there, those type of pitchers are near unhittable. When the command is off...welcome to batting practice.The lower ERA guys are generally pitching for bad contact.

Ten best ERAs in baseball last year, along with K/9:
Kershaw 2.53, 9.1
Price 2.56, 8.1
Verlander 2.64, 9.0
Dickey 2.73, 8.9
Cueto 2.78, 7.1
Cain 2.79, 7.9
Weaver 2.81, 6.8
Lohse 2.86, 6.1
Gonzalez 2.89, 9.4
Zimmermann  2.94, 5.5

For calibration, the average MLB starting pitcher in 2012 had a 4.19 ERA and struck out 7.1 per 9.

So of the top 10 pitchers, three strike out fewer than average, one is right on the line, and six are high-strikeout guys.  The best pitchers in baseball are on that list.

This pattern persists year after year-- strikeout rates are a good predictor of next year's ERA.



Big Time Timmy-Jim
K/9: 9.77
ERA: 4.41

:(
 
2013-05-07 05:59:04 PM  

DeWayne Mann: Killer Cars: DeWayne Mann: OTOH, if anyone knows that little tidbit of information, please let me know so we can laugh about it.

I didn't, but it is right on wiki page.

That is hilariously random.

He's playing in Japan now. I wonder what the cultural equivalent there is.


Okonomiyaki
 
2013-05-07 06:44:30 PM  

germ78: I said it last year when it happened that Humber's perfecto was the most unlikely PG I could think of


I was busy with errands that afternoon. I put my Sox hat on, went to dinner at Big Star, and someone came up to me like, "hey, did you hear? Humber just threw a perfect game!" My reaction was, "yeah, okay pal..."
 
2013-05-07 07:49:05 PM  
Dr Dreidel:
Humber's perfect game last April was with the White Sox, who finished 85-77. This year, the Astros will be lucky to WIN 77 60 games.
Halladay's perfect game in April 2010 was with the Phillies, who finished 97-65 and went to Game 6 of the NLDS.

Context, subby.

// of course, Dock Ellis pitched a no-no on acid
// for the Pirates
// lightning in a bottle indeed


FTFY
 
2013-05-07 08:08:32 PM  
This seems like the perfect thread to mention that Miguel Cabrera is on pace to break the single season RBI record.
 
2013-05-07 08:11:20 PM  

R Kelly's Doo Doo Butter: This seems like the perfect thread to mention that Miguel Cabrera is on pace to break the single season RBI record.


Welp, this is the post that did it.

Goodby, everyone. I am dead now.
 
2013-05-07 08:17:54 PM  

Dr Dreidel: erupt2001: You can catch lightning in a bottle in baseball.

When you're in danger of losing your rotation spot on the Astros, it's time to find a different career.

Humber's perfect game last April was with the White Sox, who finished 85-77. This year, the Astros will be lucky to WIN 77 40 games.
Halladay's perfect game in April 2010 was with the Phillies, who finished 97-65 and went to Game 6 of the NLDS.

Context, subby.

// of course, Dock Ellis pitched a no-no on acid
// for the Pirates
// lightning in a bottle indeed


FTFY
 
2013-05-07 08:19:15 PM  

Kouvre: Dr Dreidel:
Humber's perfect game last April was with the White Sox, who finished 85-77. This year, the Astros will be lucky to WIN 77 60 games.
Halladay's perfect game in April 2010 was with the Phillies, who finished 97-65 and went to Game 6 of the NLDS.

Context, subby.

// of course, Dock Ellis pitched a no-no on acid
// for the Pirates
// lightning in a bottle indeed

FTFY


See my correction below your correction for the actual number they will be lucky to reach.
 
2013-05-07 08:21:28 PM  

ClavellBCMI: Kouvre: Dr Dreidel:
Humber's perfect game last April was with the White Sox, who finished 85-77. This year, the Astros will be lucky to WIN 77 60 games.
Halladay's perfect game in April 2010 was with the Phillies, who finished 97-65 and went to Game 6 of the NLDS.

Context, subby.

// of course, Dock Ellis pitched a no-no on acid
// for the Pirates
// lightning in a bottle indeed

FTFY

See my correction below your correction for the actual number they will be lucky to reach.


And yes, I'm calling it now: the 2013 Houston Astros will eclipse the record set by the 1962 New York Mets for fail. Which will result in the GM and manager being fired... possibly by the All-Star break.
 
2013-05-07 08:21:33 PM  

DeWayne Mann: meanmutton: I think that saying "equally bad contract" is misleading because the Howard contract was the worst of the three.

It's shorter, though, which is its lone saving grace.


The biggest problem, though, is that Howard is what, 6 years older than Prince Fielder?  So it's like getting the three crappy years of Prince Fielder's contract with the good 6 years ahead of them.
 
2013-05-07 08:28:04 PM  

meanmutton: DeWayne Mann: meanmutton: I think that saying "equally bad contract" is misleading because the Howard contract was the worst of the three.

It's shorter, though, which is its lone saving grace.

The biggest problem, though, is that Howard is what, 6 years older than Prince Fielder?  So it's like getting the three crappy years of Prince Fielder's contract with the good 6 years ahead of them.


Well, what I'm saying is, ignore the players themselves. Then the Fielder contract is "worse" simply by being longer.

ClavellBCMI: Which will result in the GM and manager being fired...


That would COMPLETELY miss the point of what the Astros are doing. I'm not saying it won't happen, but it would serve as evidence that Jim Crane is actually some sort of brain damaged chimpanzee.

The 2013 Astros are bad ON PURPOSE, because it will make them better in the future.
 
2013-05-07 08:33:21 PM  

R Kelly's Doo Doo Butter: This seems like the perfect thread to mention that Miguel Cabrera is on pace to break the single season RBI record.


While I don't think RBI is a very good statistic at all (not as bad as Wins, though), I do think that batting average with RISP is a very good one.

Miguel Cabrera is hitting .535 with RISP (23/43) and .625 with RISP and 2 outs (10/16).
 
2013-05-07 08:56:36 PM  

meanmutton: I do think that batting average with RISP is a very good one.


Ok, so, what is it good at?

Does it predict future achievements well? Is it the best stat to use to predict something in the future?

Does it predict past accomplishments well? Is it the best stat to use to describe something in the past?
 
2013-05-07 08:57:05 PM  

DeWayne Mann: This thread is specially designed to kill me, isn't it?


If Derek Jeter were playing SS for the Mets, Matt Harvey would be taking a perfect game into the 8th.
 
2013-05-07 08:58:02 PM  

Rex_Banner: DeWayne Mann: This thread is specially designed to kill me, isn't it?

If Derek Jeter were playing SS for the Mets, Matt Harvey would be taking a perfect game into the 8th.


hateyouhateyouhateyouhateyouhateyouhateyouhateyouhateyouhateyouhateyo u hateyouhateyouhateyouhateyouhateyouhateyouhateyouhateyouhateyouhateyou
 
2013-05-07 08:58:33 PM  

DeWayne Mann: meanmutton: I do think that batting average with RISP is a very good one.

Ok, so, what is it good at?

Does it predict future achievements well? Is it the best stat to use to predict something in the future?

Does it predict past accomplishments well? Is it the best stat to use to describe something in the past?


Telling me how valuable a player has been and how much he contributed to his team's winning.
 
2013-05-07 09:00:25 PM  
Ok, well, first off, I wrote the wrong word earlier. The 4th question should've been "Does it describe past accomplishments well?"

meanmutton: Telling me how valuable a player has been and how much he contributed to his team's winning.


So, again, is it the best stat to use for these things?
 
2013-05-07 09:04:10 PM  

Rex_Banner: If Derek Jeter were playing SS for the Mets, Matt Harvey would be taking a perfect game into the 8th.


If Jose Reyes were still on the Mets...he'd be on the DL watching Tejada making that crappy jump throw...
 
2013-05-07 09:05:16 PM  

DeWayne Mann: Mid_mo_mad_man: Signing Kyle Loshe, Annabel Sanchez or Zack Greinke would have made more sense then the trade.
However,your forgetting one thing.This is KC and we can't spend that kinda money. Payroll is going to be about 82 million. At that number Glass says he will lose money on the team this year. No way we could have signed a major FA. Trading was Moore's best option on fixing the rotation. Meyers for Sheilds is better then Butler/Perez that Tampa originally wanted

Ok, Shields makes 10 mil this year.

Let's also point out that Hochever makes 4.5mil this year for absolutely no reason. So, lets assume in an alternate timelime, Hoch got non-tendered like he should've.

So, who else could they have had that makes 14.5 mil or less?

Ryan Dempster signed for 2/26 (so, 13)
Brandon McCarthy signed for 2/15.5 on a weird contract due to his injury.
Edwin Jackson signed for 4/52 (13 again)
Lohse signed for 3/33 (so, 11), though he was a bit cheaper because of the type A thing. Still, I'd probably rather give up a draft pick than Myers, so that's a bit of a wash.

Those are the FAs I would've considered. As for trade targets, I don't know who was available (though, by danging Myers, I'd have to think several would be), but I do know Lester is cheaper than that mark.

Like I said: the numbers suggest Shields isn't a great match for KC. So if the Rays ask for a lot for him, it is possible to say no and look elsewhere.




Those are prices are for we're they signed. Most likely KC would had to pay a lot to be considered
 
2013-05-07 09:07:43 PM  

Mid_mo_mad_man: Those are prices are for we're they signed. Most likely KC would had to pay a lot to be considered


That seems rather unlikely. Players generally take the best offer on the table, no matter who it is.
 
2013-05-07 09:19:49 PM  

DeWayne Mann: Mid_mo_mad_man: Those are prices are for we're they signed. Most likely KC would had to pay a lot to be considered

That seems rather unlikely. Players generally take the best offer on the table, no matter who it is.




No, I would beg to differ.
 
2013-05-07 09:19:59 PM  
By the way, just because I noticed it while I was looking at something else.

Miguel Cabrera's slash line in "Late & Close" this season:

.167/.318/.167

Impressive.
 
2013-05-07 09:21:13 PM  

Mid_mo_mad_man: DeWayne Mann: Mid_mo_mad_man: Those are prices are for we're they signed. Most likely KC would had to pay a lot to be considered

That seems rather unlikely. Players generally take the best offer on the table, no matter who it is.

No, I would beg to differ.


Ok. Well, can you cite any actual instances of a player saying "Hey, I'm gonna take this lesser contract, because screw that other team."?

And Cliff Lee doesn't count, because that's not actually what happened, contrary to popular opinion.
 
2013-05-07 09:22:52 PM  

DeWayne Mann: R Kelly's Doo Doo Butter: This seems like the perfect thread to mention that Miguel Cabrera is on pace to break the single season RBI record.

Welp, this is the post that did it.

Goodby, everyone. I am dead now.


I just think that its pretty neat.
 
2013-05-07 09:23:49 PM  

R Kelly's Doo Doo Butter: DeWayne Mann: R Kelly's Doo Doo Butter: This seems like the perfect thread to mention that Miguel Cabrera is on pace to break the single season RBI record.

Welp, this is the post that did it.

Goodby, everyone. I am dead now.

I just think that its pretty neat.


DEAD
 
2013-05-07 10:05:50 PM  
As someone who's about to take your money would say, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
 
2013-05-07 10:10:08 PM  

chimp_ninja: Barry Zito

Hint: The pattern is that these guys aren't very good.  The best ERA of the lot was Scott Frickin' Diamond's 3.54.


Zito was 15-8 last year and 1-0 in the post season with an ERA of 1.59.  Which was surprising, to say the least.
 
2013-05-07 10:12:14 PM  

red5ish: Zito was 15-8 last year


hahahahahahaha
 
2013-05-07 10:23:30 PM  

DeWayne Mann: red5ish: Zito was 15-8 last year

hahahahahahaha


He was. They kept a record and everything.
 
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