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(Sportige)   Every time the New York Knicks lose Game 1 of a playoff series at home, they end up losing the series. It's happened before against the Pacers as well, as Spike Lee remembers so well   (sportige.com) divider line 16
    More: Obvious, Knicks, New York, Pacers, playoff series, Reggie Miller, field goal percentage, Carmelo Anthony, Celtics  
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313 clicks; posted to Sports » on 06 May 2013 at 10:34 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-05-06 10:39:08 AM
Anyone know what the record is for teams overall who lose their game 1 home opener in a series?  I have to think it is fairly low.
 
2013-05-06 10:45:32 AM
And I found the site for the answer:

http://www.whowins.com/2013series/nba2013j.html

series record, NBA only, all rounds: 64-50 (.561)

So, historically, the road team winning game 1 increases their chance of winning the series to 56%.    Which is much better than the 15% odds of winning the series when you lose that first game on the road (the  series record, NBA only, all rounds: 282-50 (.849)  stat for OKC on their page).

In Indiana wins game two, it is all but over, as the record of winning series after taking the first two games on the road is  24-3 (.889).
 
2013-05-06 10:48:05 AM
Jesus Christ, NBA'ers are almost as bad as NHL'ers about statistics abuse.
 
2013-05-06 11:03:11 AM
It's even weirder that it happened to the Celtics, Celtics, Bulls, Bulls, and Pacers, Pacers.

/Indiana is the better team; that's why they'll win
 
2013-05-06 11:07:37 AM

dletter: So, historically, the road team winning game 1 increases their chance of winning the series to 56%.


Intuitively that sounds about right.  It flips home-court advantage, giving a big edge to the game 1 winner, but working against that are the facts that (1) the team playing game 1 on the road is lower-seeded and therefore likely not as good, and (2) game 7 is back on the same court, so the lower-seeded team will probably need to close it out in 6 (or even 5, holding serve completely, if the series is 2-3-2).  So if I had to guess the success rate of these teams I'd probably say "somewhere around 50% or maybe just a hair better."

I guess another factor I didn't think about until just now is that game 1 home-court losers are probably more likely than other teams to have a significant player injured or suspended, which may or may not affect other games in the series (i.e. depending on whether said player is coming back).
 
2013-05-06 11:07:39 AM
NY takes too many 3 pointers. If they cut down on those and drove more, they'd be fine.
 
2013-05-06 11:24:52 AM
This is a bad match up for the Knicks, they are in trouble.

Indiana is also a bad matchup for Miami if they make it that far.
 
2013-05-06 11:26:30 AM
BOOM, BABY.
 
2013-05-06 11:41:51 AM

js34603: This is a bad match up for the Knicks, they are in trouble.

Indiana is also a bad matchup for Miami if they make it that far.


I've been awful at calling NBA series this year, but how are the Pacers a bad matchup for the Heat? I know the regular season mark is 2-1 but I dont think that is really indicative of playoff results, rather the Heat didnt want to play a physical team in the regular season.
 
2013-05-06 11:56:23 AM

farbekrieg: I've been awful at calling NBA series this year, but how are the Pacers a bad matchup for the Heat? I know the regular season mark is 2-1 but I dont think that is really indicative of playoff results, rather the Heat didnt want to play a physical team in the regular season.


Pacers have a bunch of big guys who make it tough to get points in the paint. Other than that, they actually play good defense as a whole, which makes them tough to blow out.

/that said, teams have had good records against the Heat in the regular season the past couple years and have gotten beaten down in the playoffs - other teams "prove" things by beating the Heat in the regular season; the Heat can't prove anything until the playoffs, so they sometimes don't bother with it
//except against the Thunder
 
2013-05-06 12:17:02 PM

farbekrieg: js34603: This is a bad match up for the Knicks, they are in trouble.

Indiana is also a bad matchup for Miami if they make it that far.

I've been awful at calling NBA series this year, but how are the Pacers a bad matchup for the Heat? I know the regular season mark is 2-1 but I dont think that is really indicative of playoff results, rather the Heat didnt want to play a physical team in the regular season.


Roy Hibbert

/ya rly
//plus west, hansborough, etc would be a pain in the ass
 
2013-05-06 12:21:59 PM
I'm a jazz and one of the things got us eaten alive every playoff run is that we had a winning record (usually) against most everyone in the regular season.

In part that is because a punishing physical playstyle that talented teams wanted no part of in the regular season, but proved why they were the better team in the post season. Lebron is pretty much unstoppable, admittedly I think the rest of the heat will live and die how the refs call fouls in the paint.
 
2013-05-06 12:25:09 PM
J.R. Smith had more flop attempts in the 4th quarter than Carmelo had assists for the entire game.  I'm a casual fan that only watches the playoffs so I have no idea, are all the non-Carmelo Knicks hesitant to pass because they are afraid that they won't get the ball back if they pass it?
 
2013-05-06 01:49:56 PM
I've been to 7-8 Pacer games this season. Happily, two of the games I went to were when they played the Knicks and the Heat -- and won. :^)
 
2013-05-06 02:31:15 PM

farbekrieg: js34603: This is a bad match up for the Knicks, they are in trouble.

Indiana is also a bad matchup for Miami if they make it that far.

I've been awful at calling NBA series this year, but how are the Pacers a bad matchup for the Heat? I know the regular season mark is 2-1 but I dont think that is really indicative of playoff results, rather the Heat didnt want to play a physical team in the regular season.


Well the Heat's biggest weakness is lack of length/big guys which is Indiana's strength. Regular season matchups I don't really pay attention to but the big physical guys of Indiana are about as close a team can get to having an advantage over Miami. Teams like OKC or the Nuggets? Meh, you can't beat the Heat by trying to run them out of the gym. But teams like Indiana, San Antonio or Memphis who play defense and grind on them with big guys can beat them.

Chicago would be a hard match up for them as well if they had Rose (and their other guys...) because they play very similarly to Indiana and with Rose have a legit scoring threat.
 
2013-05-07 02:04:53 AM
Great games tonight, suck it Miami!
 
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