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(Philly.com)   Signs a great pitcher is no more: 2 1/3 innings, 9R, 4H (including 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 grand-slam), 4K, 4BB, 2HBP. Difficulty: against the Miami Marlins   (philly.com) divider line 47
    More: Sad, marlin, Roy Halladay, Ruben Amaro, Miami, 2HBP, blow open the game, pitchers, shoulder  
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2350 clicks; posted to Sports » on 06 May 2013 at 9:27 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-05-06 09:29:52 AM
Old age + injury + drinking due to being on the Phillies = 2012-2013 Roy Halladay
 
2013-05-06 09:41:10 AM

WTF Indeed: Old age + injury + drinking due to being on the Phillies = 2012-2013 Roy Halladay


Not sure the drinking is necessary yet.  The lineup is feast or famine, but if Halladay was his old self then they should be challenging for a playoff spot.

/tough to see him go out like this.
//especially when those ingrates booed him off the mound yesterday.
 
2013-05-06 09:47:24 AM

Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadu: WTF Indeed: Old age + injury + drinking due to being on the Phillies = 2012-2013 Roy Halladay

Not sure the drinking is necessary yet.  The lineup is feast or famine, but if Halladay was his old self then they should be challenging for a playoff spot.

/tough to see him go out like this.
//especially when those ingrates booed him off the mound yesterday.


Maybe they were booing because he should never been allowed to start the 2nd inning.

If he has any pride, he'll never take the mound again.
 
2013-05-06 09:56:26 AM
MugzyBrown:

Maybe they were booing because he should never been allowed to start the 2nd inning.

If he has any pride, he'll never take the mound again.


It's pretty common to let your starter back out there after getting shelled in the first inning.


And he obviously has pride.  Why do you think he keeps heading out there thinking he's the same pitcher of even just a couple of years ago?  Of course there's some delusion to go with it.
 
2013-05-06 09:58:28 AM

Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadu: It's pretty common to let your starter back out there after getting shelled in the first inning.


He wasn't even shelled, he couldn't find the plate.  If Miami had any real bats they would have put up 10 in the first.
 
2013-05-06 09:59:02 AM
Better signs than one game, because everyone has one bad game:
1) So far, 17 BB in 34 IP.  Halladay's career rate is less than 2 per 9 IP, so he's at more than double that.  Throw in 4 HBP and 2 WP (both high for him) so far, and there's a control problem.  Halladay's #1 weapon in his career has been pinpoint control.
2) Two ways to walk more batters: You aren't hitting the zone, or you're not fooling people into swinging at balls.  Halladay is just hitting the zone less often (45%) than he used to (~52%), and batters are swinging less (42% vs. 49%).  When they swing, the amount of contact is similar.
3) His fastball velocity is declining.  His whole career, it averaged around 92.  Last year?  91.  This year?  90.  He's either hurt or aging.  2 mph (over hundreds or thousands of fastballs) is a lot at the MLB level.  As a result, he throws it less often and relies more on cutters and breaking stuff.

Not sure:
4) He's not consistently bad.  2 horrible starts (12 ER in 7.1 IP, 12:6 K:BB), 3 excellent starts (4 ER in 21 IP, 16:5 K:BB), then 2 horrible ones (17 ER in 6 IP, 7:6 K:BB).  Quality of opponents doesn't explain it.

Signs that he's really not this bad:
1) Really unlucky on HRs.  28% of his fly balls leave the yard, which is crazy.  You can't blame his stadium, either-- home/road numbers are equal.  His xFIP is a more reasonable 4.15, and over his career his FIP/xFIP have been better predictors of ERA than prior ERA.
2) Still striking guys out.  When he can locate, the stuff must be there.

He's getting his shoulder looked at.  An injury might explain the loss of control/velocity combined with the extreme streakiness.
 
2013-05-06 10:14:15 AM

WTF Indeed: Old age + injury + drinking due to being on the Phillies = 2012-2013 Roy Halladay


He's Mormon so I'm pretty sure he doesn't drink.

Oh well, sucks to be him. He was great in Toronto. Go Jays!... oh, right...
 
2013-05-06 10:14:26 AM
Or he is actually hurt and is playing through it like always. I remember he was doing his typical mid season dealing when a liner nailed him in the temple in Pittsburgh. Should've taken a dl stint but he's so stubborn he did his next start at Cincinnati. His shortest outing of the year as he was clearly battling concussion symptoms. It's what he does and MLB is sorely lagging in making players get healthy and controlling egos.

Anyways, finally got to see him pitch in that complete game this season. Wrong uniform though
 
2013-05-06 10:15:11 AM

chimp_ninja: Signs that he's really not this bad:
1) Really unlucky on HRs. 28% of his fly balls leave the yard, which is crazy. You can't blame his stadium, either-- home/road numbers are equal. His xFIP is a more reasonable 4.15, and over his career his FIP/xFIP have been better predictors of ERA than prior ERA.
2) Still striking guys out. When he can locate, the stuff must be there.


This is why people should watch games and not think stats tell the story, because they don't.

He's not unlucky on HR's he's throwing fat, slow pitches over the middle of the plate.

He doesn't have stuff.  The pitches have no bite and his fastball is too slow to be effective.  He hasn't had stuff since the end of last year.

Any vet MLB pitcher can mix in some good games.  Sometimes hitters are being over anxious, he also altered his approach over the past few games which probably threw off the scouting reports.  But now they're readjusting.

I remember having the same conversation about Lincecum last year.  Ohh his BABIP is too high, he's not pitching poorly, he's just unlucky.  Umm no, he's just missing his spots.
 
2013-05-06 10:16:40 AM

Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadu: //especially when those ingrates booed him off the mound yesterday.


At least they weren't throwing batteries.  They save that for Santa.
 
2013-05-06 10:17:45 AM
And a trip to the DL
 
2013-05-06 10:28:18 AM
Hopefully he will be sent down to the Lehigh Valley Ironpigs so I can go watch him pitch.  It's a nice stadium and about 8 miles from where I am staying.  Poor Roy, he was awesome.
 
2013-05-06 10:31:22 AM

MugzyBrown: chimp_ninja: Signs that he's really not this bad:
1) Really unlucky on HRs. 28% of his fly balls leave the yard, which is crazy. You can't blame his stadium, either-- home/road numbers are equal. His xFIP is a more reasonable 4.15, and over his career his FIP/xFIP have been better predictors of ERA than prior ERA.
2) Still striking guys out. When he can locate, the stuff must be there.

This is why people should watch games and not think stats tell the story, because they don't.

He's not unlucky on HR's he's throwing fat, slow pitches over the middle of the plate.

He doesn't have stuff.  The pitches have no bite and his fastball is too slow to be effective.  He hasn't had stuff since the end of last year.

Any vet MLB pitcher can mix in some good games.  Sometimes hitters are being over anxious, he also altered his approach over the past few games which probably threw off the scouting reports.  But now they're readjusting.

I remember having the same conversation about Lincecum last year.  Ohh his BABIP is too high, he's not pitching poorly, he's just unlucky.  Umm no, he's just missing his spots.


Couldn't missing your spots be a matter of luck as well?

I mean, a guy doesn't hit his spot all the time.  Let's say Halladay, based on whatever he's got left (and how injured he is,) has an X% chance to execute a pitch.  If, over a handful of spots (small sample size,) he's been under that X%, then he's getting unlucky.

He's clearly lost something.  That's obvious.  It could be age, injury, or both.  But he's not necessarily THIS bad.

Of course, according to the same logic, he could be even worse, and getting lucky that he's only getting shelled this much.
 
2013-05-06 10:42:28 AM

GoodyearPimp: Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadu: //especially when those ingrates booed him off the mound yesterday.

At least they weren't throwing batteries.  They save that for Santa.


Santa only got snowballs.  Batteries were for JD Drew.
 
2013-05-06 10:44:49 AM

Dafatone: then he's getting unlucky


No he's lost it.  He's getting old.  He's worn out.

His arm slot is lower.

The 2 good starts he had a couple of weeks ago was the aberration.  He may not be 10 runs in 2 innings bad, but he's at best a 5-7 inning, 4-6 run, 5th starter guy now.

He'll have games where he looks good and he'll have games he looks awful.  He's not really hurt, he just has no gas left.
 
2013-05-06 11:03:27 AM

MugzyBrown: Dafatone: then he's getting unlucky

No he's lost it.  He's getting old.  He's worn out.

His arm slot is lower.

The 2 good starts he had a couple of weeks ago was the aberration.  He may not be 10 runs in 2 innings bad, but he's at best a 5-7 inning, 4-6 run, 5th starter guy now.

He'll have games where he looks good and he'll have games he looks awful.  He's not really hurt, he just has no gas left.


...did you read anything I wrote?

If he's not 10 runs in 2 innings bad, and he's giving up 10 runs in 2 innings, that's bad luck, or just an especially bad starts, or whatever.

Yes, he's put together seven starts that add up to very bad.  But even his more basic numbers (WHIP, K/9, BB/9) suggest that his ERA shouldn't be nearly 9.  And it's seven starts.  That's nothing.  I agree he hasn't looked any good, but there could be a mechanical mistake for him to fix.  Or maybe he really is injured, and comes back better when healthy.

Declaring much of anything after seven starts is a mistake.
 
2013-05-06 11:13:37 AM

MugzyBrown: chimp_ninja: Signs that he's really not this bad:
1) Really unlucky on HRs. 28% of his fly balls leave the yard, which is crazy. You can't blame his stadium, either-- home/road numbers are equal. His xFIP is a more reasonable 4.15, and over his career his FIP/xFIP have been better predictors of ERA than prior ERA.
2) Still striking guys out. When he can locate, the stuff must be there.

This is why people should watch games and not think stats tell the story, because they don't.

He's not unlucky on HR's he's throwing fat, slow pitches over the middle of the plate.

He doesn't have stuff. The pitches have no bite and his fastball is too slow to be effective. He hasn't had stuff since the end of last year.

Any vet MLB pitcher can mix in some good games. Sometimes hitters are being over anxious, he also altered his approach over the past few games which probably threw off the scouting reports. But now they're readjusting.

I remember having the same conversation about Lincecum last year. Ohh his BABIP is too high, he's not pitching poorly, he's just unlucky. Umm no, he's just missing his spots.


Saying he's "unlucky" doesn't mean he's still as good as he was in 2010. It just means he isn't THIS bad. Yes, he is having issues right now, but he is better than an 8.whatever ERA
 
2013-05-06 11:15:24 AM

JohnnyRebel88: Hopefully he will be sent down to the Lehigh Valley Ironpigs so I can go watch him pitch.  It's a nice stadium and about 8 miles from where I am staying.  Poor Roy, he was awesome.


From what it looks like, he might just get a chance to play for the Ironpigs in a rehab start.
 
2013-05-06 11:23:12 AM

Dafatone: Declaring much of anything after seven starts is a mistake.


How about 27 starts?

His last 27 starts he is 10-10 and his ERA is 6.03
 
2013-05-06 12:02:07 PM
www.absportsde.com
Hope he goes out with more class than lefty did.
 
2013-05-06 12:12:34 PM
Maybe they were saying "Boo-urns."
 
2013-05-06 12:15:13 PM

MugzyBrown: Dafatone: Declaring much of anything after seven starts is a mistake.

How about 27 starts?

His last 27 starts he is 10-10 and his ERA is 6.03


Well, from April 5 until Sept 5 of last year, he had 21 starts and a 3.87 ERA. In August he had 6 starts with a 3.32 ERA. Those are signs that he still has SOMETHING in the tank and that he should still be able to compete at the MLB level. He's not winning anymore Cy Youngs, and he's no longer an ace, but he probably isn't worthless either
 
2013-05-06 12:15:42 PM
Because I'm bored

Greg Maddux, April 5, 2003:

2 IP, 9 R (7ER), 8 H (including a double and 3 HR), 2K, 2BB. But 0 HBP, so I guess that makes all the difference, considering he went on to pitch 5 more years.

Randy Johnon, April 10, 1994:

2.1 IP, 11R (10 ER), 8 H (including a double an 3 HR), 2K, 6BB. Again, 0 HBP, which make sense considering he pitched 15 more years.
 
2013-05-06 12:42:49 PM

MugzyBrown: chimp_ninja: Signs that he's really not this bad:
1) Really unlucky on HRs. 28% of his fly balls leave the yard, which is crazy. You can't blame his stadium, either-- home/road numbers are equal. His xFIP is a more reasonable 4.15, and over his career his FIP/xFIP have been better predictors of ERA than prior ERA.
2) Still striking guys out. When he can locate, the stuff must be there.

This is why people should watch games and not think stats tell the story, because they don't.  He's not unlucky on HR's he's throwing fat, slow pitches over the middle of the plate.  He doesn't have stuff.  The pitches have no bite and his fastball is too slow to be effective.  He hasn't had stuff since the end of last year.  Any vet MLB pitcher can mix in some good games.  Sometimes hitters are being over anxious, he also altered his approach over the past few games which probably threw off the scouting reports.  But now they're readjusting.

I remember having the same conversation about Lincecum last year.  Ohh his BABIP is too high, he's not pitching poorly, he's just unlucky.  Umm no, he's just missing his spots.


Hurr.  Shockingly, people who understand the numbers also watch baseball games.  Was "mom's basement" too fresh and new to use?

The raw stuff is there.  He's making batters swing and miss with regularity, even missing a couple MPH off the fastball.  Random guys don't suddenly gain that ability.  If you lose some break of your curve or slider, batters make contact at a higher rate.  That isn't happening.  He's just missing the plate by so much that they swing less often.

The problem is that he's missing his spots, which is the bulk of my post that you didn't quote.  He has shoulder soreness, which he's discussed in interviews, which may explain why his effectiveness comes and goes.
 
2013-05-06 12:46:31 PM

Rex_Banner: MugzyBrown: Dafatone: Declaring much of anything after seven starts is a mistake.

How about 27 starts?

His last 27 starts he is 10-10 and his ERA is 6.03

Well, from April 5 until Sept 5 of last year, he had 21 starts and a 3.87 ERA. In August he had 6 starts with a 3.32 ERA. Those are signs that he still has SOMETHING in the tank and that he should still be able to compete at the MLB level. He's not winning anymore Cy Youngs, and he's no longer an ace, but he probably isn't worthless either


Exactly.  No sensible team would DFA Halladay tomorrow, because he still has good days.  He's pitching through pain-- get his shoulder patched and see what he can do without that impacting his delivery.
 
2013-05-06 12:49:38 PM
The Phillies are bad and Ruben Amaro should feel bad.
 
2013-05-06 01:01:25 PM

DeWayne Mann: Because I'm bored

Greg Maddux, April 5, 2003:

2 IP, 9 R (7ER), 8 H (including a double and 3 HR), 2K, 2BB. But 0 HBP, so I guess that makes all the difference, considering he went on to pitch 5 more years.

Randy Johnon, April 10, 1994:

2.1 IP, 11R (10 ER), 8 H (including a double an 3 HR), 2K, 6BB. Again, 0 HBP, which make sense considering he pitched 15 more years.


exactly

so hes had a bad couple games. yes hes getting older, yes he has an injury. some days you strike em out and somedays they hit you. name of the game. im sure after some rest he'll be back on track.
 
2013-05-06 01:31:44 PM
I know I'm thread jacking but why can't we have a MLB power ranking thread
 
2013-05-06 02:10:42 PM
A big part of his problem is that he doesn't acknowledge that he has injuries.  He will try to play through them and cost the team a game (or several) and insist that he is fine.  Then when it does come out we find out that he was injured while he was saying he is fine.
 
2013-05-06 03:02:34 PM
My fault, I drafted him in the second round last season and that's been a recipe for a pitcher's downward spiral for like five years in a row.

/et tu, Strasburg?
 
2013-05-06 03:21:11 PM

DeWayne Mann: Because I'm bored

Greg Maddux, April 5, 2003:

2 IP, 9 R (7ER), 8 H (including a double and 3 HR), 2K, 2BB. But 0 HBP, so I guess that makes all the difference, considering he went on to pitch 5 more years.

Randy Johnon, April 10, 1994:

2.1 IP, 11R (10 ER), 8 H (including a double an 3 HR), 2K, 6BB. Again, 0 HBP, which make sense considering he pitched 15 more years.


I wait all morning, and this is all you bring?

For starters, how do these starts compare to the other starts by these pitchers in a similar stretch of time? Were these starts immediately followed by a trip to the DL?

If we're going to use examples, let's use examples that paint a better picture, and not "Number A matches Number B, therefore..." examples.

Mid_mo_mad_man: I know I'm thread jacking but why can't we have a MLB power ranking thread


I tried to submit one mocking espn, who put the Red Sox at #1 and the Rangers at #2. And that's taking into account the Red Sox getting swept... by the Rangers.
 
2013-05-06 03:59:49 PM
In fantasy baseball news, I really hope the BoSox shiat or get off the pot WRT Bailey's sore arm so I can make a move to pick up Hanrahan in my league before someone else does. This DTD business does me no good; either DL him or not.
 
2013-05-06 04:18:48 PM

Uncle Pooky: DeWayne Mann: Because I'm bored

Greg Maddux, April 5, 2003:

2 IP, 9 R (7ER), 8 H (including a double and 3 HR), 2K, 2BB. But 0 HBP, so I guess that makes all the difference, considering he went on to pitch 5 more years.

Randy Johnon, April 10, 1994:

2.1 IP, 11R (10 ER), 8 H (including a double an 3 HR), 2K, 6BB. Again, 0 HBP, which make sense considering he pitched 15 more years.

I wait all morning, and this is all you bring?

For starters, how do these starts compare to the other starts by these pitchers in a similar stretch of time? Were these starts immediately followed by a trip to the DL?

If we're going to use examples, let's use examples that paint a better picture, and not "Number A matches Number B, therefore..." examples.

Mid_mo_mad_man: I know I'm thread jacking but why can't we have a MLB power ranking thread

I tried to submit one mocking espn, who put the Red Sox at #1 and the Rangers at #2. And that's taking into account the Red Sox getting swept... by the Rangers.




Espn is required to over rank the BoSox. Despite being swept by the Rangers and losing 2 of 3 to KC
 
2013-05-06 04:26:37 PM

chimp_ninja: MugzyBrown: chimp_ninja: Signs that he's really not this bad:
1) Really unlucky on HRs. 28% of his fly balls leave the yard, which is crazy. You can't blame his stadium, either-- home/road numbers are equal. His xFIP is a more reasonable 4.15, and over his career his FIP/xFIP have been better predictors of ERA than prior ERA.
2) Still striking guys out. When he can locate, the stuff must be there.

This is why people should watch games and not think stats tell the story, because they don't.  He's not unlucky on HR's he's throwing fat, slow pitches over the middle of the plate.  He doesn't have stuff.  The pitches have no bite and his fastball is too slow to be effective.  He hasn't had stuff since the end of last year.  Any vet MLB pitcher can mix in some good games.  Sometimes hitters are being over anxious, he also altered his approach over the past few games which probably threw off the scouting reports.  But now they're readjusting.

I remember having the same conversation about Lincecum last year.  Ohh his BABIP is too high, he's not pitching poorly, he's just unlucky.  Umm no, he's just missing his spots.

Hurr.  Shockingly, people who understand the numbers also watch baseball games.  Was "mom's basement" too fresh and new to use?

The raw stuff is there.  He's making batters swing and miss with regularity, even missing a couple MPH off the fastball.  Random guys don't suddenly gain that ability.  If you lose some break of your curve or slider, batters make contact at a higher rate.  That isn't happening.  He's just missing the plate by so much that they swing less often.

The problem is that he's missing his spots, which is the bulk of my post that you didn't quote.  He has shoulder soreness, which he's discussed in interviews, which may explain why his effectiveness comes and goes.


The shoulder soreness may also mean he is unintentionally tipping his pitches.
 
2013-05-06 04:55:03 PM

Uncle Pooky: I wait all morning, and this is all you bring?

For starters, how do these starts compare to the other starts by these pitchers in a similar stretch of time? Were these starts immediately followed by a trip to the DL?

If we're going to use examples, let's use examples that paint a better picture, and not "Number A matches Number B, therefore..." examples.


Subby claimed the above stats showed a great pitcher was no more. Since I can't find an exact match for those stats, I cannot address that claim directly, but I was able to find two similar games (in about 3 minutes of looking) from great pitchers who were NOT "no more."

Now, if I shift the constraints slightly (lower the number of runs to 7, require at least one HBP, and expand the number of innings pitched to allow less than 2 innings), and somewhat relax the definition of great pitcher, there are three more similar games: 2 from Orel Hershisher & 1 from Tommy John. Hershisher's both came in his final season, including his final game. John's came towards the end of his last full season, though he made 10 more starts the next year. So it could be argued that they both were "no more." But I'm not sure I'd argue them as "great."

Had subby mentioned anything about DL stints, other starts, etc, I would've addressed those. But he didn't.

Otherwise, I don't really know what else I can contribute to the thread. I don't analyze players this early in the season; I never analyze individual games.  So I got nothin'.
 
2013-05-06 05:18:48 PM

Mid_mo_mad_man: I know I'm thread jacking but why can't we have a MLB power ranking thread


I would like to discuss how the Royals are doing so well though.  I wish there was one in here too.  I was surprised that the Sox jumped to 1st after losing to The Rangers.  Yes, I am a Red Sox fan.
 
2013-05-06 05:18:57 PM
Halladay is a very proud man and he always has been.  He'll never compromise and always throw at 100%, no matter what,.  You could see it on his face when he pitched for the Jays.  A bad game, or even a hit that led nowhere but still shouldn't have happened?  He'd rage and curse himself out.  That includes injuries too.  Unless he physically cannot throw a ball in front of him, he's always been out there.  He is to baseball what Daniel Alfredsson is to hockey.

His best days are definitely behind him, but you just have to cheer for him.  He's pure class all the way and deserves better than to go out like this.  He does need to learn to adjust and compromise for the sake of his own health, if nothing else.
 
2013-05-06 09:01:01 PM

Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadu: WTF Indeed: Old age + injury + drinking due to being on the Phillies = 2012-2013 Roy Halladay

Not sure the drinking is necessary yet.  The lineup is feast or famine, but if Halladay was his old self then they should be challenging for a playoff spot.

/tough to see him go out like this.
//especially when those ingrates booed him off the mound yesterday.


Not sure you're looking at the same phillies lineup, they don't look good and I don't think anyone picked them to contend for a playoff spot. I think every baseball analyst outside of Philly picked the braves and nationals to be 1/2.

And with their pitching seemingly going downhill fast they will be on the hook for cash the next few years, how is Ryan Howard doing, still fat and not the feared hitter he was?
 
2013-05-06 11:28:17 PM

DeWayne Mann: Subby claimed the above stats showed a great pitcher was no more.


No, I claimed that it one of the (many) signs of it happening. And he isn't a great pitcher anymore. Doesn't mean he's 100% cooked and done, but the Doc Halladay we all knew and loved is probably never going out on that mound again, barring a miracle of some sort. That's what happens when you get old, injured, slower, and your mechanics start slipping.

It's not meant to say "based on this single game, it's over", but instead it's part of a downward slide that started in spring training of *LAST YEAR*. That's a large enough sample size, given that it includes two spring trainings and a few injuries and assorted ailments, to start making real conclusions. Injured shoulder or not, there's more than enough evidence that Roy is no longer the same pitcher he once was.

DeWayne Mann: Had subby mentioned anything about DL stints, other starts, etc, I would've addressed those. But he didn't.


There's only so long one can make FARK headlines, you know. :p
 
2013-05-06 11:49:38 PM

steamingpile: Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadu: WTF Indeed: Old age + injury + drinking due to being on the Phillies = 2012-2013 Roy Halladay

Not sure the drinking is necessary yet.  The lineup is feast or famine, but if Halladay was his old self then they should be challenging for a playoff spot.

/tough to see him go out like this.
//especially when those ingrates booed him off the mound yesterday.

Not sure you're looking at the same phillies lineup, they don't look good and I don't think anyone picked them to contend for a playoff spot. I think every baseball analyst outside of Philly picked the braves and nationals to be 1/2.

And with their pitching seemingly going downhill fast they will be on the hook for cash the next few years, how is Ryan Howard doing, still fat and not the feared hitter he was?




They're not as bad as they've looked either. Much like the past couple of years, they're very streaky. Who cares who the analysts picked? They surely could contend for a wild card berth. Wouldn't surprise me if the didn't either though.

Pitching hasn't looked great but I wouldn't say they're going downhill fast. Halliday is the only one completely unreliable at this point (not counting the bullpen). And Howard's fine.
 
2013-05-07 12:29:00 AM

Joe_diGriz: No, I claimed that it one of the (many) signs of it happening.


Joe_diGriz: It's not meant to say "based on this single game, it's over",


You might have intended it to read as something like "This is yet another of many signs", but (to me, at least), it absolutely reads as "The following numbers are signs."

Joe_diGriz: There's only so long one can make FARK headlines, you know. :p


I don't think I've submitted anything in about 5 years, so I don't actually know.
 
2013-05-07 12:59:11 AM

DeWayne Mann: You might have intended it to read as something like "This is yet another of many signs", but (to me, at least), it absolutely reads as "The following numbers are signs."


I can see now where it might have come across as the latter, but trust me, I definitely meant the former. I don't generally pull out the Jump To Conclusions mat based on what could otherwise be a statistical anomaly.
 
2013-05-07 01:28:27 AM

Joe_diGriz: DeWayne Mann: You might have intended it to read as something like "This is yet another of many signs", but (to me, at least), it absolutely reads as "The following numbers are signs."

I can see now where it might have come across as the latter, but trust me, I definitely meant the former. I don't generally pull out the Jump To Conclusions mat based on what could otherwise be a statistical anomaly.


This is fark. I'm pretty sure drawing way too many conclusions based on a single game is one of the foundations of the sports tab.
 
2013-05-07 07:09:18 AM

Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadu: steamingpile: Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadu: WTF Indeed: Old age + injury + drinking due to being on the Phillies = 2012-2013 Roy Halladay

Not sure the drinking is necessary yet.  The lineup is feast or famine, but if Halladay was his old self then they should be challenging for a playoff spot.

/tough to see him go out like this.
//especially when those ingrates booed him off the mound yesterday.

Not sure you're looking at the same phillies lineup, they don't look good and I don't think anyone picked them to contend for a playoff spot. I think every baseball analyst outside of Philly picked the braves and nationals to be 1/2.

And with their pitching seemingly going downhill fast they will be on the hook for cash the next few years, how is Ryan Howard doing, still fat and not the feared hitter he was?



They're not as bad as they've looked either. Much like the past couple of years, they're very streaky. Who cares who the analysts picked? They surely could contend for a wild card berth. Wouldn't surprise me if the didn't either though.

Pitching hasn't looked great but I wouldn't say they're going downhill fast. Halliday is the only one completely unreliable at this point (not counting the bullpen). And Howard's fine.


Well because usually they are right, some slip through the cracks but there is a reason why they get paid huge sums to speak about the sport.

I think you are seeing what Atlanta went through in the late 90s when we had to wonder how much longer these guys would pitch/be affordable. Now we are having to worry about keeping these pitchers when it comes time to pay them huge contracts.

And I would disagree with Howard, he looks nothing like his former self and is not nearly as feared as he once was which would scare me as a Philly fan since he's still fairly young.
 
2013-05-07 09:12:08 AM

steamingpile: Well because usually they are right, some slip through the cracks but there is a reason why they get paid huge sums to speak about the sport.

I think you are seeing what Atlanta went through in the late 90s when we had to wonder how much longer these guys would pitch/be affordable. Now we are having to worry about keeping these pitchers when it comes time to pay them huge contracts.

And I would disagree with Howard, he looks nothing like his former self and is not nearly as feared as he once was which would scare me as a Philly fan since he's still fairly young.


When I say Howard's fine, I'm talking about him likely putting up a 30+HR, 100+RBI, 270avg. season.  You'd hope to get more considering the money he's being paid, but they're pretty good numbers for a slugger.  He'll never put up numbers like his MVP year again.  Plus, he's still not too far removed from the achilles injury and I'm not sure I'd consider 33 "fairly young."

Most of the team is old, without any real young talent to build off of.  I just think they have enough to be competitive and compete for a wild card position.  They were surprisingly in the hunt last August despite a pretty terrible start and a slew of injuries.  Never really thought winning the division was possible though.  We'll probably see in another month or so if they have a chance.  If they don't show anything by that point, then I wouldn't be surprised if Amaro starts trying to unload a bunch of these guys for prospects.
 
2013-05-07 12:12:04 PM

Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadu: When I say Howard's fine, I'm talking about him likely putting up a 30+HR, 100+RBI, 270avg. season. You'd hope to get more considering the money he's being paid, but they're pretty good numbers for a slugger. He'll never put up numbers like his MVP year again. Plus, he's still not too far removed from the achilles injury and I'm not sure I'd consider 33 "fairly young."


That sounds like 2010 Ryan Howard (.276, 31 HR, 108 RBI).  That year he was worth a whopping 1.0 (Fangraphs) to 1.3 (B-Ref) wins above replacement.

Why?  Mostly because the Phillies are required to play him as a defender in most games, and a little because Ryan Howard might be the single worst baserunner in baseball.

And for that extra 1 win per year, assuming Ryan Howard does not age, the Phillies will be paying a minimum (no incentives reached, club takes the $10M 2017 buyout) of $105M more over the next 5 years.  And suffice to say that history is unkind regarding the aging of less-than-physically-fit 1Bs who cannot DH, and the Phillies are paying for his age 33-37 performance.

Ryan Howard may be the worst non-Yankee contract in baseball.
 
2013-05-07 01:07:02 PM

chimp_ninja: Ryan Howard might be the single worst baserunner in baseball.


Hilarious evidence from the other night

chimp_ninja: And suffice to say that history is unkind regarding the aging of less-than-physically-fit 1Bs who cannot DH, and the Phillies are paying for his age 33-37 performance.

Ryan Howard may be the worst non-Yankee contract in baseball.


That contract is one of the two stupidest things that Amaro has done. The other was the trading away Cliff Lee for a bag of used baseballs (and Phillipe Aumount, not that there's a huge difference right now), which then set off a chain of events resulting in emptying pretty much the entire farm system.
 
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