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(Talking Points Memo)   Karl Rove says the GOP has an "outside chance" of winning the Senate in 2014 and he should know since he has all the right numbers   (livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com) divider line 18
    More: Interesting, Karl Rove, GOP, Senate  
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779 clicks; posted to Politics » on 02 May 2013 at 11:08 AM (50 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»

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2013-05-02 09:27:21 AM
3 votes:
unless they abandon the primary process, the tea party will torpedo any electable candidate.
2013-05-02 11:13:45 AM
2 votes:
So, how many people saw this and immediately thought "The dems must have a good chance at keeping the Senate, then."
2013-05-02 05:18:16 PM
1 votes:

RyogaM: Didn't the Democrats have to defend more seats in the 2012 Senate races than the Republicans, as well?  Or I'm I mistaken?

Yes.  And they ended up gaining because of the superderp the GOP served up.  Nearly more except for the squeaker Jeff Flake (who's already incurring serious buyer's remorse) pulled off in AZ.  "Math" is only one part of it.  Midterm voter enthusiasm is only a part of it.  Run self-destructive competition and the competition...self-destructs.  I know, big surprise.  And it doesn't matter who's got the math or initial enthusiasm on their side when a self-destructo starts self-destructing for statewide office.  There's already 1 probable self-destructo: Steve King in Iowa.  He'll clear the primary field because he's sitting on piles of cash and has the built-in enthusiasm advantage for a derp-a-thon primary...but then he's toast in the general when a whole career of opening his mouth comes back to haunt him in a moderate state with a likely par-or-better D challenger stepping up to hold Harkin's seat.

And we're still 1-1/2 years away.  The Akins and Mourdocks didn't appear on the scene until late primary upsets, and the Pete Hoekstras and Linda McMahons needed until general election ad season to totally self-immolate.  Nobody knows how it's going to play out, but the GOP sure as fark hasn't moderated at all nor has the base gotten any less restive for primary challenges.  That puts Susan Collins in ME in extreme danger of getting teabagged and coughing up that seat.  You might even be able to make a somewhat educated prediction of how that seat's general will pan out by the time the primary roster is set by year's end.  The three-headed derp (and maybe more) slugging it out with each other to replace Chambliss in GA is ripe for producing a self-destructo (doesn't mean it will, but conditions merit issuing a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in advance).  Montana's not going to flip Max Baucus' vacated seat if insanely popular D ex-Gov. Schewitzer runs as expected.  WV (Rockefeller) and AR (Pryor) have anomalously popular D incumbents in deep-red states.  And while extremely unlikely as an upset, it's nonetheless a bad omen when a kingpin sitting on mountains of cash like Mitch McConnell is so underwater on approval that he's crap-pants terrified of a primary more than he is the general.

The crapshoots are the ones with weak approvals who won by unimpressive margins last time.  Begich in AK, Landrieu in LA, Hagan in NC...all unknowable because no declared opponents yet.  With the vacant D seat in SD being a GOP gimme.  If I had to guess that Nate Silvery odds going down the stretch aren't going to look much different from '12...GOP favored on math for a couple pickups but not nearly as many as the state-by-state voter ID would suggest, par odds of them fighting to a draw, *very slim* odds of a D +1 if the self-destructos come out in force and fark it up in a lean-R open seat like GA or torpedo another Lugar-type incumbent.
2013-05-02 05:05:54 PM
1 votes:
Karl Rove knows what he's doing.  The difficulty is that he's back in a position where he's trying to influence things, so it's hard to tell if he's saying something because it's what he actually thinks or saying it for the propaganda impact of what the meme spreading would accomplish.

I enjoyed his writing when he was working for the NYT and it wasn't his job to spin shiat, some of that was actually bordering on brilliant.  But now that he's with a propaganda channel, it's too exhausting to separate intentional half-truths and lies from legit analysis, so I've been ignoring him.
2013-05-02 01:24:21 PM
1 votes:
Why does anyone give a rats tail about what this guy thinks?

Has he EVER had an idea that actually helped this country?

Lets just get on with our lives before he can dream up the next great "crisis" to lie about.
2013-05-02 01:12:03 PM
1 votes:
To put in perspective how hard it is to defeat an incumbant Senator, only 1 incumbant Senator was defeated in 2012 (Scott Brown) and only two incumbent Senators were defeated in the "wave" election of 2010 (Feingold, Blanche Lincoln).    Republicans have to pick up six.    It's hurt the Democrats that they've had a couple of retirements, but Republicans seem to be more than willing to lend a hand by nominating batshiat insane people like Joe Miller and Steve King.
2013-05-02 12:51:45 PM
1 votes:

So an "outside chance" means: against the odds that the outcome is in your favor

2013-05-02 11:59:02 AM
1 votes:
Didn't the Democrats have to defend more seats in the 2012 Senate races than the Republicans, as well?  Or I'm I mistaken?
2013-05-02 11:34:09 AM
1 votes:
Unless he can find a way to gerrymander state lines then I would say...no.
2013-05-02 11:32:35 AM
1 votes:
His employer called him "Turd-blossom".

He outed a CIA covert employee.

He committed voter fraud in Ohio.

That explains why the GOP loves him so.

/I am SO farking glad I finally left that nest of fascist war-profiteers. Fark Rove and anyone who hires him
2013-05-02 11:27:27 AM
1 votes:

cameroncrazy1984: So, how many people saw this and immediately thought "The dems must have a good chance at keeping the Senate, then."

The day Bill Kristol says "The GOP is farked" is the day I start worrying.
2013-05-02 11:16:41 AM
1 votes:
The Republicans will take the Senate in 2014 for the same reason the Democrats will re-take it in 2016.  Numbers.

In 2014, The democrats will be defending 21 seats, while the republicans will only be defending 14.  The democrats do need to only win 16 of those seats to keep the majority (since a 50-50 tie leaves Biden as the tiebreaker).

In 2016. 10 democrats, and 24 republicans will be defending their seats(these seats were won in the 2010 mid-terms that the republicans did very well in).
2013-05-02 11:14:46 AM
1 votes:
The sad thing is that, if the GOP did take the Senate back, or even make a serious dent in the Dem majority, Republicans would probably be all over Rove again like stink on shiat.
2013-05-02 09:52:42 AM
1 votes:

Dinki: Given the stellar job the GOP has done running the house, why wouldn't we want them to be the majority in the senate?

they run the senate anyway through the tyranny of the minority. in reality, they control congress.
2013-05-02 09:42:47 AM
1 votes:
2013-05-02 09:39:44 AM
1 votes:
Copy-Pasta to his actual opinion piece (Fark won't let me link d/t occasional paywall:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732426690457845665291365 8 748.html?mod=hp_opinion

He has a point, though he has no special insight.  The bottom line is that the Dems are defending more seats in 2014 than the GOP, they are leaving more seats vacant than the GOP, and a good amount of the seats they are defending are in states Romney carried.

The GOP does stand a decent chance of making gains in 2014, based solely on which seats are up for grabs and which Senators are retiring, but Rove has no special insight.  He makes it sound like he does by name-dropping various state-level politicians' names, but anyone could tell you that if the Dems are defending more seats, abandoning more seats, and running in more red states, the GOP has a chance of picking up some Senators.
jbc [TotalFark]
2013-05-02 09:39:08 AM
1 votes:
Possible, but not likely.
2013-05-02 09:24:26 AM
1 votes:
Doesn't the math say the GOP should take the majority? This isn't shocking.
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