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(Talking Points Memo)   Karl Rove says the GOP has an "outside chance" of winning the Senate in 2014 and he should know since he has all the right numbers   (livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com) divider line 71
    More: Interesting, Karl Rove, GOP, Senate  
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779 clicks; posted to Politics » on 02 May 2013 at 11:08 AM (50 weeks ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-05-02 12:19:12 PM

Dinki: FlashHarry: Dinki: Given the stellar job the GOP has done running the house, why wouldn't we want them to be the majority in the senate?

they run the senate anyway through the tyranny of the minority. in reality, they control congress.

Too true. The underlying flaw in our governmental structure is it is based on a belief that all of the participants would be rational.


Using the voice of the people sounds good on paper, but you have the possibility to run into a disaster when the people are voicing derp.
 
2013-05-02 12:19:16 PM
FlashHarry: unless they abandon the primary process, the tea party will torpedo any electable candidate.

This.
 
2013-05-02 12:22:48 PM

ManateeGag: just like I have an outside change of getting blown my Olivia Munn.


It's hard typing with one hand, isn't it?
 
2013-05-02 12:23:17 PM
Karl Rove looks like a thread-bare Q-tip. Imma stick his head in my ear.
 
2013-05-02 12:31:44 PM
i3.kym-cdn.com
 
2013-05-02 12:36:56 PM

ManateeGag: just like I have an outside change of getting blown my Olivia Munn.


Just like I have an outside chance of being the quivering meat in a Sofia Vergara/Salma Hayek sammich.
 
2013-05-02 12:51:45 PM
blog.villines.com

So an "outside chance" means: against the odds that the outcome is in your favor

correct?
 
2013-05-02 01:08:51 PM
That "outside chance" sounds like Karl Rove: fat.
 
2013-05-02 01:12:03 PM
To put in perspective how hard it is to defeat an incumbant Senator, only 1 incumbant Senator was defeated in 2012 (Scott Brown) and only two incumbent Senators were defeated in the "wave" election of 2010 (Feingold, Blanche Lincoln).    Republicans have to pick up six.    It's hurt the Democrats that they've had a couple of retirements, but Republicans seem to be more than willing to lend a hand by nominating batshiat insane people like Joe Miller and Steve King.
 
2013-05-02 01:24:21 PM
Why does anyone give a rats tail about what this guy thinks?

Has he EVER had an idea that actually helped this country?

Lets just get on with our lives before he can dream up the next great "crisis" to lie about.
 
2013-05-02 02:48:46 PM

Mentat: cameroncrazy1984: So, how many people saw this and immediately thought "The dems must have a good chance at keeping the Senate, then."

The day Bill Kristol says "The GOP is farked" is the day I start worrying.


I see what you did there (I think).
 
2013-05-02 02:55:06 PM
 
2013-05-02 03:16:14 PM
They should have a good chance, not an outside one, given the number of red state dems up this year.

But they've gone so far off the rails that only a couple pickups look most likely, and then the democrats will wipe the floor with them in 2016.  We could easily be seeing a filibuster-proof democrat majority in two election cycles again, and Republicans have no one but themselves to blame.
 
2013-05-02 03:17:31 PM
"B..b...but when you look at Cuyahoga County..."
 
2013-05-02 04:53:29 PM
They should have accomplished at least gaining some seats last year and ended up LOSING a seat by fielding idiots and I kinda doubt they'll learn from it.

This year they will, short of complete disaster, regain Alaska. AL Franken will probably have a very tough reelection.

Short of that... it's game on!
 
2013-05-02 05:05:54 PM
Karl Rove knows what he's doing.  The difficulty is that he's back in a position where he's trying to influence things, so it's hard to tell if he's saying something because it's what he actually thinks or saying it for the propaganda impact of what the meme spreading would accomplish.

I enjoyed his writing when he was working for the NYT and it wasn't his job to spin shiat, some of that was actually bordering on brilliant.  But now that he's with a propaganda channel, it's too exhausting to separate intentional half-truths and lies from legit analysis, so I've been ignoring him.
 
2013-05-02 05:18:16 PM

RyogaM: Didn't the Democrats have to defend more seats in the 2012 Senate races than the Republicans, as well?  Or I'm I mistaken?


Yes.  And they ended up gaining because of the superderp the GOP served up.  Nearly more except for the squeaker Jeff Flake (who's already incurring serious buyer's remorse) pulled off in AZ.  "Math" is only one part of it.  Midterm voter enthusiasm is only a part of it.  Run self-destructive competition and the competition...self-destructs.  I know, big surprise.  And it doesn't matter who's got the math or initial enthusiasm on their side when a self-destructo starts self-destructing for statewide office.  There's already 1 probable self-destructo: Steve King in Iowa.  He'll clear the primary field because he's sitting on piles of cash and has the built-in enthusiasm advantage for a derp-a-thon primary...but then he's toast in the general when a whole career of opening his mouth comes back to haunt him in a moderate state with a likely par-or-better D challenger stepping up to hold Harkin's seat.

And we're still 1-1/2 years away.  The Akins and Mourdocks didn't appear on the scene until late primary upsets, and the Pete Hoekstras and Linda McMahons needed until general election ad season to totally self-immolate.  Nobody knows how it's going to play out, but the GOP sure as fark hasn't moderated at all nor has the base gotten any less restive for primary challenges.  That puts Susan Collins in ME in extreme danger of getting teabagged and coughing up that seat.  You might even be able to make a somewhat educated prediction of how that seat's general will pan out by the time the primary roster is set by year's end.  The three-headed derp (and maybe more) slugging it out with each other to replace Chambliss in GA is ripe for producing a self-destructo (doesn't mean it will, but conditions merit issuing a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in advance).  Montana's not going to flip Max Baucus' vacated seat if insanely popular D ex-Gov. Schewitzer runs as expected.  WV (Rockefeller) and AR (Pryor) have anomalously popular D incumbents in deep-red states.  And while extremely unlikely as an upset, it's nonetheless a bad omen when a kingpin sitting on mountains of cash like Mitch McConnell is so underwater on approval that he's crap-pants terrified of a primary more than he is the general.

The crapshoots are the ones with weak approvals who won by unimpressive margins last time.  Begich in AK, Landrieu in LA, Hagan in NC...all unknowable because no declared opponents yet.  With the vacant D seat in SD being a GOP gimme.  If I had to guess that Nate Silvery odds going down the stretch aren't going to look much different from '12...GOP favored on math for a couple pickups but not nearly as many as the state-by-state voter ID would suggest, par odds of them fighting to a draw, *very slim* odds of a D +1 if the self-destructos come out in force and fark it up in a lean-R open seat like GA or torpedo another Lugar-type incumbent.
 
2013-05-02 09:25:01 PM
The numbers are pointless.  Let's see the odds when the Republican contenders start speaking.  I'm sure legalizing rape and limiting abortions is going to really help their numbers.

/snicker
 
2013-05-02 09:54:26 PM

Sock Ruh Tease: [i3.kym-cdn.com image 553x342]


The fact that it took that long to get that image out is kinda depressing.

COME ON, PEOPLE!  Fark is slipping!
 
2013-05-03 12:56:58 AM

cameroncrazy1984: So, how many people saw this and immediately thought "The dems must have a good chance at keeping the Senate, then."


Exactly. The Republicans should be the ones in the drivers seat heading into 2014. There are more democrats up, including some in very Republican states (West Virginia) or won by very thin margins (Alaska), more democrats are retiring removing incumbent advantage, and it is a midterm election. And they should only need to pick up two or three seats if not for terrible candidates the last two times around.
 
2013-05-03 06:58:01 AM
The Tea Party is less of a threat to any GOP possible victory than Karl Rove is. Rank and file GOP voters think Rove is a DNC plant.

The DNC wants Rove to be active in GOP politics as much as possible.....like the Patriots want Rex Ryan to remain Jets Head Coach
 
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