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(Yahoo)   Normally, post draft "grading" of teams is just as much dart-throwing as pre-draft speculation, but since this one has the Cowboys as the only "F" maybe they're on to something   (sports.yahoo.com) divider line 49
    More: Amusing, National Football Conference, Super Bowl, Cowboys, Brent Celek, Jason Witten, Nick Foles, Jeremy Maclin, Morris Claiborne  
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2588 clicks; posted to Sports » on 29 Apr 2013 at 8:50 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-04-29 08:58:37 AM  
Total number of people surprised by Jerry Jones' sure-fire fark-up: 0.

/Redskins meanwhile get a high grade based solely on getting RGIII...which if I am not mistaken, was not part of this years draft.
 
2013-04-29 09:01:06 AM  
Ha ha! It's funny cause the cowboys suck at everything.
 
2013-04-29 09:03:56 AM  
No one knows anything more about any of these players today that they did last week except which teams they will play for in this year's training camp
 
2013-04-29 09:06:27 AM  

Lost Thought 00: No one knows anything more about any of these players today that they did last week except which teams they will play for in this year's training camp


Which is really telling when it comes to the Cowboys grade.
 
2013-04-29 09:13:44 AM  
Last year the same guy gave the Seahawks a D-. Only ended up with the rookie with the most sacks, the runner-up in defensive Rookie of the Year voting, and runner-up in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting in the first three rounds, plus several others who made the team.
 
2013-04-29 09:14:44 AM  
In fact, here we go:

"Picks: OLB Bruce Irvin, ILB Bobby Wagner, QB Russell Wilson, RB Robert Turbin, DT Jaye Howard, LB Korey Toomer, CB Jeremy Lane, SS Winston Guy Jr., DT J.R. Sweezy, DE Greg Scruggs
Grade: D-
Analysis: I have a great deal of respect for the work of John Schneider, but I don't understand this draft. Of eight teams (five of which drafted after the Seahawks) that were surveyed, none graded Irvin as a first-round pick. Yes, he has talent, and he could become great. He also might be a guy who burns out in two years because there are plenty of people who question his dedication. After that, the Seahawks spent a third-round pick on Wilson even though the history of QBs under 6-foot is poor, to say the least. You don't spend a third-round pick on a guy who'll be lucky to be Seneca Wallace. You also don't do that after signing Matt Flynn as a free agent. The Seahawks are no closer to solving the QB situation now than they were before 2011."

Yeah, this guy is very good at predicting the future.
 
2013-04-29 09:18:13 AM  

IAmRight: In fact, here we go:

"Picks: OLB Bruce Irvin, ILB Bobby Wagner, QB Russell Wilson, RB Robert Turbin, DT Jaye Howard, LB Korey Toomer, CB Jeremy Lane, SS Winston Guy Jr., DT J.R. Sweezy, DE Greg Scruggs
Grade: D-
Analysis: I have a great deal of respect for the work of John Schneider, but I don't understand this draft. Of eight teams (five of which drafted after the Seahawks) that were surveyed, none graded Irvin as a first-round pick. Yes, he has talent, and he could become great. He also might be a guy who burns out in two years because there are plenty of people who question his dedication. After that, the Seahawks spent a third-round pick on Wilson even though the history of QBs under 6-foot is poor, to say the least. You don't spend a third-round pick on a guy who'll be lucky to be Seneca Wallace. You also don't do that after signing Matt Flynn as a free agent. The Seahawks are no closer to solving the QB situation now than they were before 2011."

Yeah, this guy is very good at predicting the future.


I always love seeing the aftermath of all this speculation and "expert" opinion. Makes me smile a little bit on the inside.

/nice find.
 
2013-04-29 09:18:25 AM  

IAmRight: Last year the same guy gave the Seahawks a D-. Only ended up with the rookie with the most sacks, the runner-up in defensive Rookie of the Year voting, and runner-up in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting in the first three rounds, plus several others who made the team.


Seattle's the scariest team this coming season.
 
2013-04-29 09:23:05 AM  

digistil: IAmRight: Last year the same guy gave the Seahawks a D-. Only ended up with the rookie with the most sacks, the runner-up in defensive Rookie of the Year voting, and runner-up in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting in the first three rounds, plus several others who made the team.

Seattle's the scariest team this coming season.


The trick to avoiding that is never stick your neck out. Grade everyone between C and B, then no matter what happens you can just chalk it up to other factors
 
2013-04-29 09:25:32 AM  
I'm a  Panthers fan.  I've read a number of these "post-draft grades" things, and am convinced that these guys have their heads firmly implanted in their rectal cavities.  Every one I've seen gives them a "C".  Okay, jagoffs, with only five picks they get two stud DTs (one of which is the best in the draft), another very good linebacker, and a significant upgrade on PR/KR.   The only questionable pick was taking the guard too early.  And that's a C?  Whatever.
 
2013-04-29 09:33:36 AM  

IAmRight: In fact, here we go:

"Picks: OLB Bruce Irvin, ILB Bobby Wagner, QB Russell Wilson, RB Robert Turbin, DT Jaye Howard, LB Korey Toomer, CB Jeremy Lane, SS Winston Guy Jr., DT J.R. Sweezy, DE Greg Scruggs
Grade: D-
Analysis: I have a great deal of respect for the work of John Schneider, but I don't understand this draft. Of eight teams (five of which drafted after the Seahawks) that were surveyed, none graded Irvin as a first-round pick. Yes, he has talent, and he could become great. He also might be a guy who burns out in two years because there are plenty of people who question his dedication. After that, the Seahawks spent a third-round pick on Wilson even though the history of QBs under 6-foot is poor, to say the least. You don't spend a third-round pick on a guy who'll be lucky to be Seneca Wallace. You also don't do that after signing Matt Flynn as a free agent. The Seahawks are no closer to solving the QB situation now than they were before 2011."

Yeah, this guy is very good at predicting the future.


It's almost as if the people paid to evaluate the talent available in the draft know more than the people who get paid to write stories about the talent available in the draft.
 
2013-04-29 09:33:48 AM  
...well, considering this guy gave the Jets a B grade on the AFC grades, I wouldn't say he's as on to something as subby seems to think.
 
2013-04-29 09:37:29 AM  
I also note that he gave the Dolphins an A in the AFC portion. Gee, wonder why?

Jason Cole is an award-winning writer who covered the Miami Dolphins for 15 years at The Miami Herald and the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. A member of the Pro Football Writers Association, he also has experience covering the NBA. Jason graduated from Stanford with a degree in communication.
 
2013-04-29 09:41:17 AM  
Yes, the author's a tool. But let's not get dragged down by nuance, and instead keep sight of the important fact:

The Cowboys are terrible at drafting players, because their GM is an idiot.
 
2013-04-29 10:05:30 AM  
I think we can all at least agree that some things will never change with the Oakland Raiders. It's like they had a seance with Al to see who he would like to draft.
 
2013-04-29 10:10:05 AM  

Lost Thought 00: No one knows anything more about any of these players today that they did last week except which teams they will play for in this year's training camp


Which is why you can actually give a good grade on the draft.  The players' values haven't changed in the past week.  So whoever was able to get the most value (i.e. not picking a player in round 3 they could have gotten in round 4) had a good "draft".

Of course having a good "draft" is worthless if everyone had the initial values wrong.
 
2013-04-29 10:13:01 AM  
Escobar is going to be a BEAST with some mentoring from Witten.  He's already damn good...got to watch him develop at SDSU, and he has better hands than a lot of wideouts.  That said, fark the Cowboys.
 
2013-04-29 10:15:22 AM  
Did the Seahawks really draft a GUY named Christine?  Damn...thats worse than a boy named Sue.
 
2013-04-29 10:18:33 AM  
So wait...the Chargers drafted three guys that were projected 1st round picks (Fluker - 1st round, Te'o - 2nd round, and Allen 3rd round), but their draft grade came in at a C+?  ookaaaayyyy....
 
2013-04-29 10:19:40 AM  
Since we're talking about the draft aftermath, the Lions likely picked up 5 starters -- Two DEs, CB, P, and G -- which probably says more about how bad the Lions are coming into the draft than how good their picks were.
 
2013-04-29 10:21:08 AM  

EightyEight: IAmRight: In fact, here we go:

"Picks: OLB Bruce Irvin, ILB Bobby Wagner, QB Russell Wilson, RB Robert Turbin, DT Jaye Howard, LB Korey Toomer, CB Jeremy Lane, SS Winston Guy Jr., DT J.R. Sweezy, DE Greg Scruggs
Grade: D-
Analysis: I have a great deal of respect for the work of John Schneider, but I don't understand this draft. Of eight teams (five of which drafted after the Seahawks) that were surveyed, none graded Irvin as a first-round pick. Yes, he has talent, and he could become great. He also might be a guy who burns out in two years because there are plenty of people who question his dedication. After that, the Seahawks spent a third-round pick on Wilson even though the history of QBs under 6-foot is poor, to say the least. You don't spend a third-round pick on a guy who'll be lucky to be Seneca Wallace. You also don't do that after signing Matt Flynn as a free agent. The Seahawks are no closer to solving the QB situation now than they were before 2011."

Yeah, this guy is very good at predicting the future.

It's almost as if the people paid to evaluate the talent available in the draft know more than the people who get paid to write stories about the talent available in the draft.


I will say this - there's something to be said about getting value and not just a great player. If you think a guy's worth a first, but everyone else says third - don't get him in the first. You can afford to get someone else at 1, and get the guy you think is great in the 2nd. It worked out because 2&3 also panned out, but I doubt even the Seahawks saw what they got as anything more than a best case scenario.
 
2013-04-29 10:42:40 AM  

SubBass49: So wait...the Chargers drafted three guys that were projected 1st round picks (Fluker - 1st round, Te'o - 2nd round, and Allen 3rd round), but their draft grade came in at a C+?  ookaaaayyyy....


Anyone that 'projected' Manatee Te'owch as a first rounder is a moron.
 
2013-04-29 11:02:35 AM  
Where things went sideways was in the middle of the draft with Logan, who is an underachiever, and Barkley, who was overrated and not altogether necessary.

Hard hitting analysis. They gave up a seventh rounder to move up and take a consensus first-round pick from the previous year. 'Was overrated'? Does that mean he is now properly rated? 'Not altogether necessary'? Vick is on a one-year deal, and Foles hasn't proven to be a consistent starter.

This guy gets paid? For this?
 
2013-04-29 11:07:42 AM  

SubBass49: Did the Seahawks really draft a GUY named Christine?  Damn...thats worse than a boy named Sue.


He just happened to be highest on their malcontents/drug test failers/criminals draft board. One of their picks was busted the first day of the draft.
 
2013-04-29 11:09:50 AM  
The Cowboys deserve to get an "F" in any grading system available for that contract they gave Romo.
 
2013-04-29 11:15:38 AM  

SubBass49: Escobar is going to be a BEAST with some mentoring from Witten.  He's already damn good...got to watch him develop at SDSU, and he has better hands than a lot of wideouts.  That said, fark the Cowboys.


Gotta have another TE and replace the void left by John Phillips in that role. And that WR they got is fantastic.

The C/G is exactly what the Cowboys need to solidify the line, and they got a safety. The rest of the class is a question mark in terms of production but I'm happy with what looks like a draft that filled some needs.

Anyone knocking the Cowboys for moving down and getting Terrance Williams for it didn't see any film of the guy. Wow.
 
2013-04-29 11:27:51 AM  

IlGreven: ...well, considering this guy gave the Jets a B grade on the AFC grades, I wouldn't say he's as on to something as subby seems to think.


I actually thought the Jets made out okay.  They did trade Revis but, let's face it, this is a team that's not going to be competing for at least a couple of years anyway, so it wasn't worth it to keep him on.  They then went and drafted three guys who had all been predicted as Top Five picks within the last month or two.  I don't think Geno is going to be particularly great, but he's certainly worth looking at for a third round pick.
 
2013-04-29 11:37:24 AM  
I'm sure someone has already done it, but it would sure be fun to "retroactively" grade the drafts after 2-3 years (is that long enough?) and show the instant grades that the more popular pundits gave.  There are a few bloggy type sites that do it, but I would really like to see a good stats based analysis (ala baseball prospectus) of the drafts.

Just for kicks and giggles, Kiper gave the 2001 Chargers draft a C+.  They picked up LT and the Breesus in that draft.  Two potential HOF guys in one draft is a pretty solid draft if you ask me.  Granted, the rest of the draft was uninspiring for the most part, but that is why a good, solid stats based analysis using comparisons to historical drafts would come into play.
 
2013-04-29 11:37:31 AM  

digistil: IAmRight: Last year the same guy gave the Seahawks a D-. Only ended up with the rookie with the most sacks, the runner-up in defensive Rookie of the Year voting, and runner-up in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting in the first three rounds, plus several others who made the team.

Seattle's the scariest team this coming season.


Seattle's one of the few teams that really didn't need to draft anybody.
 
2013-04-29 11:40:43 AM  
I liked the players the Cowboys drafted and contrary to TFA I think at least 4 of them (Fredrick, Escobar, Williams and Wilcox) will see significant playing time this year. Fredrick was undoutedly a reach (and possibly a panic pick after all those guards started dropping off the board) but he'll improve a line that desperately needs it)

"Considering the Cowboys have Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, Williams was an unnecessary luxury (particularly after the Escobar pick)."

Bullshiat. Just about everyone who covers them said that they were looking for a consistent 3rd WR this year and when you take into account their cap situation, the draft was the only place they were going to find any value. Assuming (and this is a big assumption), they're able to protect Romo, they'll have a hell of a lot of speed on the field.
 
2013-04-29 11:57:41 AM  

ladodger34: I'm sure someone has already done it, but it would sure be fun to "retroactively" grade the drafts after 2-3 years (is that long enough?) and show the instant grades that the more popular pundits gave.  There are a few bloggy type sites that do it, but I would really like to see a good stats based analysis (ala baseball prospectus) of the drafts.

Just for kicks and giggles, Kiper gave the 2001 Chargers draft a C+.  They picked up LT and the Breesus in that draft.  Two potential HOF guys in one draft is a pretty solid draft if you ask me.  Granted, the rest of the draft was uninspiring for the most part, but that is why a good, solid stats based analysis using comparisons to historical drafts would come into play.


Your first issue is listening to Kiper for anything. He's worse than Stephen Smith and Skip Bayless combined.

If Kiper says the sun will rise in the east tomorrow, I'd start thinking about checking NASA's website for unusual cosmic phenomena. 'Cause it'll prolly come up over Tampa Bay tomorrow morning now on general principle.

Kiper is *that* bad.
 
2013-04-29 12:02:41 PM  
Well the Cowboys did draft a center. Maybe from the shotgun  Romo wont have to chase every 3rd ball down the field this year
 
2013-04-29 12:07:09 PM  

IAmRight: In fact, here we go:

"Picks: OLB Bruce Irvin, ILB Bobby Wagner, QB Russell Wilson, RB Robert Turbin, DT Jaye Howard, LB Korey Toomer, CB Jeremy Lane, SS Winston Guy Jr., DT J.R. Sweezy, DE Greg Scruggs
Grade: D-
Analysis: I have a great deal of respect for the work of John Schneider, but I don't understand this draft. Of eight teams (five of which drafted after the Seahawks) that were surveyed, none graded Irvin as a first-round pick. Yes, he has talent, and he could become great. He also might be a guy who burns out in two years because there are plenty of people who question his dedication. After that, the Seahawks spent a third-round pick on Wilson even though the history of QBs under 6-foot is poor, to say the least. You don't spend a third-round pick on a guy who'll be lucky to be Seneca Wallace. You also don't do that after signing Matt Flynn as a free agent. The Seahawks are no closer to solving the QB situation now than they were before 2011."

Yeah, this guy is very good at predicting the future.


Hell, people on this very site swore up and down for months that Tebow would be a successful NFL QB.

Few people (other than Ozzie Newsome and a couple other rare exceptions) really know what they are doing.
 
2013-04-29 12:12:00 PM  

SubBass49: Did the Seahawks really draft a GUY named Christine?  Damn...thats worse than a boy named Sue.


Actually, their first four draft picks have unisex names at best:

Christine
Jordan
Chris
Jesse
 
2013-04-29 12:12:28 PM  

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: digistil: IAmRight: Last year the same guy gave the Seahawks a D-. Only ended up with the rookie with the most sacks, the runner-up in defensive Rookie of the Year voting, and runner-up in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting in the first three rounds, plus several others who made the team.

Seattle's the scariest team this coming season.

Seattle's one of the few teams that really didn't need to draft anybody.


Seattle is actually employing a very crafty strategy here.  Their first pick was a running back, obviously a position of strength where they have Marshawn Lynch.  Their second pick was DT Jordan Hill; a pre-draft analysis described Hill as "a potential Brandon Mebane type."  And I thought "well, the team already has a Brandon Mebane type; his name is Brandon Mebane."  Then they took a WR who's going to be added to a corps of Harvin, Rice, Tate and Baldwin.  Then they took DT Jesse Williams, who sort of resembles 5-tech Red Bryant.

So what's going on here?  Well, everybody knows the Seahawks have a corps of young players on their rookie contracts, who are going to have to be extended for big bucks, and the team is going to have to fit them under the salary cap.  Somebody's going to have to go.  So who are some of the Seahawks' highly-paid players who are reaching the "late in their prime" stage of their careers, and thus candidates to move on within the next couple of years?  Marshawn Lynch, Brandon Mebane, Sidney Rice and Red Bryant.  If this draft class pans out, it's going to look brilliant.
 
2013-04-29 12:13:23 PM  

xaks: ladodger34: I'm sure someone has already done it, but it would sure be fun to "retroactively" grade the drafts after 2-3 years (is that long enough?) and show the instant grades that the more popular pundits gave.  There are a few bloggy type sites that do it, but I would really like to see a good stats based analysis (ala baseball prospectus) of the drafts.

Just for kicks and giggles, Kiper gave the 2001 Chargers draft a C+.  They picked up LT and the Breesus in that draft.  Two potential HOF guys in one draft is a pretty solid draft if you ask me.  Granted, the rest of the draft was uninspiring for the most part, but that is why a good, solid stats based analysis using comparisons to historical drafts would come into play.

Your first issue is listening to Kiper for anything. He's worse than Stephen Smith and Skip Bayless combined.

If Kiper says the sun will rise in the east tomorrow, I'd start thinking about checking NASA's website for unusual cosmic phenomena. 'Cause it'll prolly come up over Tampa Bay tomorrow morning now on general principle.

Kiper is *that* bad.


I wasn't listening to Kiper for anything, I just googled his 2001 draft grades for the fun of it (cause I vaguely remembered that Tomlinson and Brees were taken in the same draft).
 
2013-04-29 12:18:01 PM  

xaks: Your first issue is listening to Kiper for anything. He's worse than Stephen Smith and Skip Bayless combined.

If Kiper says the sun will rise in the east tomorrow, I'd start thinking about checking NASA's website for unusual cosmic phenomena. 'Cause it'll prolly come up over Tampa Bay tomorrow morning now on general principle.

Kiper is *that* bad.


Still, I have a certain admiration for Kiper.  He's like Aristotle or Freud: wrong about nearly everything, and yet I have to give him credit for essentially inventing a discipline that didn't exist before he arrived.
 
2013-04-29 12:21:06 PM  
Post draft analysis is almost always influenced by pre-draft predictions, and since none of the alleged experts knows what the hell is going on, listening to them either before or after the draft is a colossal waste of time.
 
2013-04-29 12:22:04 PM  

karmaceutical: The Cowboys deserve to get an "F" in any grading system available for that contract they gave Romo.


Why's that? His contract added $5 million in cap space for the team. It makes sense to lock down your veteran QB while making room for draft & FA acquisitions. If you look at the numbers, and from your post I see that you haven't, Romo ain't our problem.

Now this thread is supposed to be about the draft, so quit wonking about Romo, pedant.
 
2013-04-29 12:45:52 PM  

EightyEight: It's almost as if the people paid to evaluate the talent available in the draft know more than the people who get paid to write stories about the talent available in the draft.


Tom Brady went in the 6th round.  Adrian Foster, Adam Vinatieri and Tony Romo were undrafted.  It's gotten better over the years, but the draft isn't everything.

/ I find it amusing that the first two safeties taken have issues with consistent tackling, while Jordan Kovacs doesn't get drafted (which isn't a surprise) but half the NFL invites him to camp as a free agent anyway
 
2013-04-29 01:07:31 PM  
The Cowboys actually had a pretty good draft.  I laughed at their 1st round pick (along with the rest of the world), but they really did get some solid players in the middle rounds.


Actually, there are very few teams I can look to where I can give out poor grades.  Combined with a solid crop of players almost top to bottom, it seems like NFL front offices, outside of Cleveland and Jacksonville, are getting smarter all around.  The NFC West had a particularly good draft; its amazing to think that 3 years ago a 7-9 team won the division, which was considered barely better than the CFL or Arena League.  Today, if anyone DOESN'T regard it as the best division in football, they need to have their head examined. Baalke and Schneider are absolute magicians at their craft.

Also, appropos of nothing, every team I see Pete Carroll on the sidelines chewing his gum like the stupid asshole he is, I want to hurl a brick at his stupid face.
 
2013-04-29 01:33:42 PM  
Is drafting a center that bad considering how many problems they had at center last year?
 
2013-04-29 02:22:17 PM  

dragonchild: EightyEight: It's almost as if the people paid to evaluate the talent available in the draft know more than the people who get paid to write stories about the talent available in the draft.

Tom Brady went in the 6th round.  Adrian Foster, Adam Vinatieri and Tony Romo were undrafted.  It's gotten better over the years, but the draft isn't everything.

/ I find it amusing that the first two safeties taken have issues with consistent tackling, while Jordan Kovacs doesn't get drafted (which isn't a surprise) but half the NFL invites him to camp as a free agent anyway


So that's three undrafted players in the last twenty years who turned out to good to great players.  Just for fun, I decided to look at the last ten years of the draft and figure out how many players, on average, from each round eventually made a Pro Bowl.  It's not the perfect measure of talent, but it's decent enough:

1st - 11.1
2nd - 4.1
3rd - 2.2
4th - 2.5
5th - 1.1
6th - 1.1
7th - 0.5
Undrafted - 3.5

Though it's important to note that only 5 of the 35 undrafted Pro Bowlers came into the league in the last five years.  Also, the total pool for undrafted players is much larger than the 32 players in each round.

It's not a perfect measure, but looking at those numbers, it's pretty clear that players drafted earlier are far more likely to be successful than players drafted later.
 
2013-04-29 02:36:14 PM  

rugman11: It's not a perfect measure, but looking at those numbers, it's pretty clear that players drafted earlier are far more likely to be successful than players drafted later.


Of course they are; in addition to probably being better players, they also get more chances to succeed (teams don't like paying guaranteed money to someone who doesn't even get on the field). They get the opportunity to work through injuries. They get more reps throughout minicamps and if everything's equal, then they get the job over someone who has no money invested in them.

You get a minor injury that causes you to miss a minicamp as a first-rounder, then oh well. You're a little delayed in your development but that's fine. You get a minor injury that causes you to miss a minicamp as an undrafted free agent and you may never be on an NFL roster again.
 
2013-04-29 03:23:16 PM  

Nhojwolfe: Is drafting a center that bad considering how many problems they had at center last year?


Drafting just a Center isn't that great, but when you get a guy who plays C and G, he fits the Cowboys perfectly. As some of you who follow the Cowboys may know, the line is at times a mishmash of guys playing all over the line, with different guys playing all over the place.

If they can plug him in on the interior of the line and play him, he'll be worth the pick.
 
2013-04-29 05:47:24 PM  

rugman11: 1st - 11.1
2nd - 4.1
3rd - 2.2
4th - 2.5
5th - 1.1
6th - 1.1
7th - 0.5
Undrafted - 3.5

Though it's important to note that only 5 of the 35 undrafted Pro Bowlers came into the league in the last five years. Also, the total pool for undrafted players is much larger than the 32 players in each round.

It's not a perfect measure, but looking at those numbers, it's pretty clear that players drafted earlier are far more likely to be successful than players drafted later.


So for the past ten years, teams have had a better chance of signing an All-Pro player as an undrafted FA than as a third rounder, or 4, 5, 6, or 7th.
 
2013-04-29 07:00:12 PM  

Anderson's Pooper: rugman11: 1st - 11.1
2nd - 4.1
3rd - 2.2
4th - 2.5
5th - 1.1
6th - 1.1
7th - 0.5
Undrafted - 3.5

Though it's important to note that only 5 of the 35 undrafted Pro Bowlers came into the league in the last five years. Also, the total pool for undrafted players is much larger than the 32 players in each round.

It's not a perfect measure, but looking at those numbers, it's pretty clear that players drafted earlier are far more likely to be successful than players drafted later.

So for the past ten years, teams have had a better chance of signing an All-Pro player as an undrafted FA than as a third rounder, or 4, 5, 6, or 7th.


Well, no, because teams usually sign 15-20 undrafted free agents.  So while the odds of a 5th or 6th rounder becoming a Pro Bowler is 1 out of 35 or 40 (depending on supplemental picks), the odds of an undrafted free agent doing the same is closer to 1 in 140 or 150.
 
2013-04-29 07:35:24 PM  

dragonchild: EightyEight: It's almost as if the people paid to evaluate the talent available in the draft know more than the people who get paid to write stories about the talent available in the draft.

Tom Brady went in the 6th round.  Adrian Foster, Adam Vinatieri and Tony Romo were undrafted.  It's gotten better over the years, but the draft isn't everything.

/ I find it amusing that the first two safeties taken have issues with consistent tackling, while Jordan Kovacs doesn't get drafted (which isn't a surprise) but half the NFL invites him to camp as a free agent anyway


Miles Austin is an UFA.

Was mad at the Cowboys after day 1, but am happy with what they did over all.
 
2013-04-29 08:36:13 PM  

IAmRight: rugman11: It's not a perfect measure, but looking at those numbers, it's pretty clear that players drafted earlier are far more likely to be successful than players drafted later.

Of course they are; in addition to probably being better players, they also get more chances to succeed (teams don't like paying guaranteed money to someone who doesn't even get on the field). They get the opportunity to work through injuries. They get more reps throughout minicamps and if everything's equal, then they get the job over someone who has no money invested in them.

You get a minor injury that causes you to miss a minicamp as a first-rounder, then oh well. You're a little delayed in your development but that's fine. You get a minor injury that causes you to miss a minicamp as an undrafted free agent and you may never be on an NFL roster again.


On the other hand, if you prove yourself as a low-rounder or a UFA (close, but no cigar), they'll keep you around because you save the team a lot by succeeding. You may not be paid as much until your initial contract is up, but you also save them from having to spend draft picks or FA money at your position.
 
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  3. Other Farkers comment on the links. This is the number of comments. Click here to read them.

  4. Click here to submit a link.

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