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1240 clicks; posted to Sports » on 26 Apr 2013 at 12:00 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:    more»

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Holds true for Chicago.

Since 2000, the Bears 1st rounders have been:

Brian Urlacher - HOF
Marc Colombo - bust in Chicago, successful elsewhere
Michael Haynes - bust
Rex Grossman - dragon
Cedric Benson - bust in Chicago, successful elsewhere
Greg Olsen - decent starter
Chris Williams - bust
Gabe Carimi - probable bust
Shea McClellin n/a
Kyle Long n/a

However, the Bears 2nd rounders have been:

Mike Brown - excellent starter when healthy (rare)
Anthony Thomas - decent starter
Charles Tillman - excellent
Tank Johnson - decent
Daniel Manning - decent
Devin Hester - ridiculous
Dan Bazuin - bust
Matt Forte - excellent
Stephen Paea - decent
Alshon Jeffery - n/a

They do, especially in a top-heavy draft where you can get first round talent at second round prices.  That's why teams not named the Dolphins are so reluctant to give up second round picks.

Jubeebee: Holds true for Chicago.

Since 2000, the Bears 1st rounders have been:

Brian Urlacher - HOF
Marc Colombo - bust in Chicago, successful elsewhere
Michael Haynes - bust
Rex Grossman - dragon
Cedric Benson - bust in Chicago, successful elsewhere
Greg Olsen - decent starter
Chris Williams - bust
Gabe Carimi - probable bust
Shea McClellin n/a
Kyle Long n/a

However, the Bears 2nd rounders have been:

Mike Brown - excellent starter when healthy (rare)
Anthony Thomas - decent starter
Charles Tillman - excellent
Tank Johnson - decent
Daniel Manning - decent
Devin Hester - ridiculous
Dan Bazuin - bust
Matt Forte - excellent
Stephen Paea - decent
Alshon Jeffery - n/a

I like the cut of your jib +1

This is a nss study. First five picks throw the pay curve off, but the value not accounted for is talent per roster spot. There are limited resources for development, so a high market price formed.

It was only a few years ago that the insane rookie pay levels got pushed down, so I'd imagine any data from the last decade is pretty skewed.

Heres hoping the jets draft some more defense.

Anyone else out there intrigued by that d-lineman at SMU who was a track God in Estonia?  Old and raw, but did he kill that bowl game.

Joke's on them.  My team didn't even have a 1st round pick.

Jubeebee: Holds true for Chicago.

Since 2000, the Bears 1st rounders have been:

Brian Urlacher - HOF
Marc Colombo - bust in Chicago, successful elsewhere
Michael Haynes - bust
Rex Grossman - dragon
Cedric Benson - bust in Chicago, successful elsewhere
Greg Olsen - decent starter
Chris Williams - bust
Gabe Carimi - probable bust
Shea McClellin n/a
Kyle Long n/a

However, the Bears 2nd rounders have been:

Mike Brown - excellent starter when healthy (rare)
Anthony Thomas - decent starter
Charles Tillman - excellent
Tank Johnson - decent
Daniel Manning - decent
Devin Hester - ridiculous
Dan Bazuin - bust
Matt Forte - excellent
Stephen Paea - decent
Alshon Jeffery - n/a

Difficulty: Jerry Angelo* made most of those picks.

//a friend of mine seems to think Ertz will fall to the Bears at 50; I'm not so confident

Oh, and I should add that the traded pick became Rob Gronkowski.

-_-

Any analysis that includes value assessment from before the rookie-wage-scale is invalid on its face

Cleveland Browns ranked as least efficient.

Objective proof of what everybody already knows.

Since 2000, Seahawks first rounders:
Shaun Alexander (All-Pro 2x)
Chris McIntosh (eh)
Koren Robinson (meh)
Steve Hutchinson (All-Pro 7x)
Jerramy Stevens (Pro Bowl-caliber douchebag)
Marcus Trufant (made an All-Pro team)
Marcus Tubbs (injuries)
Chris Spencer (still in the league, meh starter)
Kelly Jennings (sorry tiny)
Lawrence Jackson (still in the league but not great)
Aaron Curry ("can't miss" prospect missed)
Russell Okung (Pro-Bowler, injuries an issue)
Earl Thomas (potentially best safety in the league)
James Carpenter (injury issues again)
Bruce Irvin (led rookies in sacks, but not ready to be a starter)

Second rounders:
Ike Charlton (out of the league in a year)
Ken Lucas (decent player)
Maurice Morris (third-string RB but serviceable in a pinch)
Anton Palepoi (who?
Ken Hamlin (solid player)
Michael Boulware (no complaints)
Lofa Tatupu (good for a couple of years then fell off the map)
Darryl Tapp (decent and got us Chris Clemons in a trade later on)
Josh Wilson (eh)
John Carlson (had promise, then eh)
Max Unger (someone still with the team! And is good!)
Golden Tate (sucked until last year, now might be useful)
Bobby Wagner (beast - hopefully he doesn't end up like Tatupu)

I'm gonna say the first-rounders have worked out better for Seattle.

This was true until 2 years ago when the rookie wage scale was instituted.  Now you don't have to pay an obvious bust like Sam Bradford $50M guaranteed just because you're dumb enough to pick him at #1. Now, the most valuable picks are those at the top of the draft, regardless of the talent level in that draft, which is as it should be. If the rookie wage scale were not in place this year, I bet a lot of teams would rather forfeit their pick than to have to pay guys like Fisher and Joekel$50M in guarantees.  But now, teams can embrace the fact that there's a lot of depth and not worry that there isn't any (obvious) top end talent.

Jubeebee: Holds true for Chicago.

Since 2000, the Bears 1st rounders have been:

Brian Urlacher - HOF
Marc Colombo - bust in Chicago, successful elsewhere
Michael Haynes - bust
Rex Grossman - dragon
Cedric Benson - bust in Chicago, successful elsewhere
Greg Olsen - decent starter
Chris Williams - bust
Gabe Carimi - probable bust
Shea McClellin n/a
Kyle Long n/a

However, the Bears 2nd rounders have been:

Mike Brown - excellent starter when healthy (rare)
Anthony Thomas - decent starter
Charles Tillman - excellent
Tank Johnson - decent
Daniel Manning - decent
Devin Hester - ridiculous
Dan Bazuin - bust
Matt Forte - excellent
Stephen Paea - decent
Alshon Jeffery - n/a

I haven't heard much about Carimi or McClellin development-wise, but it seems like Alshon Jeffrey has some positive potential. But ugh, some of those names give me rage flashbacks to the early-mid 2000s.

IAmRight: Since 2000, Seahawks first rounders:
Shaun Alexander (All-Pro 2x)
Chris McIntosh (eh)
Koren Robinson (meh)
Steve Hutchinson (All-Pro 7x)
Jerramy Stevens (Pro Bowl-caliber douchebag)
Marcus Trufant (made an All-Pro team)
Marcus Tubbs (injuries)
Chris Spencer (still in the league, meh starter)
Kelly Jennings (sorry tiny)
Lawrence Jackson (still in the league but not great)
Aaron Curry ("can't miss" prospect missed)
Russell Okung (Pro-Bowler, injuries an issue)
Earl Thomas (potentially best safety in the league)
James Carpenter (injury issues again)
Bruce Irvin (led rookies in sacks, but not ready to be a starter)

Second rounders:
Ike Charlton (out of the league in a year)
Ken Lucas (decent player)
Maurice Morris (third-string RB but serviceable in a pinch)
Anton Palepoi (who?
Ken Hamlin (solid player)
Michael Boulware (no complaints)
Lofa Tatupu (good for a couple of years then fell off the map)
Darryl Tapp (decent and got us Chris Clemons in a trade later on)
Josh Wilson (eh)
John Carlson (had promise, then eh)
Max Unger (someone still with the team! And is good!)
Golden Tate (sucked until last year, now might be useful)
Bobby Wagner (beast - hopefully he doesn't end up like Tatupu)

I'm gonna say the first-rounders have worked out better for Seattle.

Really interesting to see the difference between the 2 regimes in the front office. The only good picks made by Ruskell in the first round were no-brainers. Everyone else flamed out or was mediocre/bad (at least for the Seahawks).

Why Would I Read the Article: This was true until 2 years ago when the rookie wage scale was instituted.  Now you don't have to pay an obvious bust like Sam Bradford $50M guaranteed just because you're dumb enough to pick him at #1. Now, the most valuable picks are those at the top of the draft, regardless of the talent level in that draft, which is as it should be. If the rookie wage scale were not in place this year, I bet a lot of teams would rather forfeit their pick than to have to pay guys like Fisher and Joekel$50M in guarantees.  But now, teams can embrace the fact that there's a lot of depth and not worry that there isn't any (obvious) top end talent.

seumasokelly: Why Would I Read the Article: This was true until 2 years ago when the rookie wage scale was instituted.  Now you don't have to pay an obvious bust like Sam Bradford $50M guaranteed just because you're dumb enough to pick him at #1. Now, the most valuable picks are those at the top of the draft, regardless of the talent level in that draft, which is as it should be. If the rookie wage scale were not in place this year, I bet a lot of teams would rather forfeit their pick than to have to pay guys like Fisher and Joekel$50M in guarantees.  But now, teams can embrace the fact that there's a lot of depth and not worry that there isn't any (obvious) top end talent.

Compared to his salary, yes

If he were making what guys make now, it'd be fine. But for the money he was given, yeah, he's kind of a bust (not that that's his fault or something he had control over).

IAmRight: seumasokelly: Bradford = bust? Huh?

If he were making what guys make now, it'd be fine. But for the money he was given, yeah, he's kind of a bust (not that that's his fault or something he had control over).

I guess I see the point. It was a situation that wrote itself, though. Neither side really could do anything about it. He was thrust into a bad situation with #1 money. I think time will be good to him, though. That team is getting better and I expect he will end up remembered as a good (not great) QB - a la Hasselbeck or Brad Johnson or something.

On a tangent, but do most people enjoy having the first round on Thursday night? Being an east coast Pats fan I have an obvious bias (the Pats weren't on the clock until 11:15 pm or so) but it just seems silly to have it so late at night.

Electromax:
I haven't heard much about Carimi or McClellin development-wise, but it seems like Alshon Jeffrey has some positive potential. But ugh, some of those names give me rage flashbacks to the early-mid 2000s.

Carimi  will probably lose his job to Long at some point during this season. McClellin just won the Piccolo award so he's doing something right.

Imagine this year's draft without the rookie pay scale.

tommyl66: On a tangent, but do most people enjoy having the first round on Thursday night? Being an east coast Pats fan I have an obvious bias (the Pats weren't on the clock until 11:15 pm or so) but it just seems silly to have it so late at night.

Should they make a new rule and change it just for the Pats? Oh wait, they already do that.

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: Imagine this year's draft without the rookie pay scale.

Fisher would not have been #1, I can say that for sure. The tidal wave of teams trying to trade back would have been embarrassing.

abhorrent1: tommyl66: On a tangent, but do most people enjoy having the first round on Thursday night? Being an east coast Pats fan I have an obvious bias (the Pats weren't on the clock until 11:15 pm or so) but it just seems silly to have it so late at night.

Should they make a new rule and change it just for the Pats? Oh wait, they already do that.

It was a point of emphasis, not a rule change, and you should blame Bill Polian for it...

/I know that's not what you meant, but fark it

seumasokelly: Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: Imagine this year's draft without the rookie pay scale.

Fisher would not have been #1, I can say that for sure. The tidal wave of teams trying to trade back would have been embarrassing.

I could legitimately see some teams decide it's better to not pick at all in the first round, and just forfeit their picks when they fail to trade down.

What matters isn't the absolute performance of a player, but the difference between his performance and that of a mediocre one (the performance they would have gotten if they hadn't made the pick.

The ratio (2nd round absolute - mediocre)/(1st round absolute - mediocre) will typically be much smaller than the pure absolute ratio, so using the absolute ratio deflates the value of first rounders.

seumasokelly: Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: Imagine this year's draft without the rookie pay scale.

Fisher would not have been #1, I can say that for sure. The tidal wave of teams trying to trade back would have been embarrassing.

Somehow the Jets would've ended up first and you would've heard a huge "D'OH!" as Roger announced they were on the clock.

Lost Thought 00: I could legitimately see some teams decide it's better to not pick at all in the first round, and just forfeit their picks when they fail to trade down.

That would be hilarious, though. Every single team in the top 10 refusing to submit a pick, followed by all of the teams that moved up going "Oh, hell no!" and doing the same thing, ad naseum.

Lost Thought 00: seumasokelly: Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: Imagine this year's draft without the rookie pay scale.

Fisher would not have been #1, I can say that for sure. The tidal wave of teams trying to trade back would have been embarrassing.

I could legitimately see some teams decide it's better to not pick at all in the first round, and just forfeit their picks when they fail to trade down.

Didn't Minnesota do something like that a few years ago? They time ran out on their pick so the next team was up, they ran their pick to the podium and once they did that the next team in line did the same. Basically Minnesota (or whatever team it was) "skipped" a few slots before making their pick.

The beauty was that they used the lower draft pick as their basis for contract negotiations rather than their original spot. I don't remember if that worked out for them or not.

abhorrent1: tommyl66: On a tangent, but do most people enjoy having the first round on Thursday night? Being an east coast Pats fan I have an obvious bias (the Pats weren't on the clock until 11:15 pm or so) but it just seems silly to have it so late at night.

Should they make a new rule and change it just for the Pats? Oh wait, they already do that.

I was exhausted but stayed up to see the Pats pick.  Then they traded it.  And what ensued was one of the most beuatifully awkward and mistimed things I've seen on television in some time.  That whole Berman to Goodell to Andruzzi thing was just bad, and then with the group of (assumedly) New Yorkers yelling "Boston sucks" during a moment of reflection for victims or a terrorist act.  Strange all around.

tommyl66: On a tangent, but do most people enjoy having the first round on Thursday night? Being an east coast Pats fan I have an obvious bias (the Pats weren't on the clock until 11:15 pm or so) but it just seems silly to have it so late at night.

I think they should have it at 3 AM so my boss is a zombie the next day.  I'll just read the recap, it's not like there's any exciting plays to miss.

Nana's Vibrator: That whole Berman to Goodell to Andruzzi thing was just bad, and then with the group of (assumedly) New Yorkers yelling "Boston sucks" during a moment of reflection for victims or a terrorist act.

They were chanting Boston Strong.

abhorrent1: Electromax:
I haven't heard much about Carimi or McClellin development-wise, but it seems like Alshon Jeffrey has some positive potential. But ugh, some of those names give me rage flashbacks to the early-mid 2000s.

Carimi  will probably lose his job to Long at some point during this season. McClellin just won the Piccolo award so he's doing something right.

I could see an OL of Bushrod/Long/Garza/Carimi/Webb, since Spencer and Louis are gone. But Carimi is a probable bust because he's a worse tackle than J'marcus Webb, and therefore is at guard by default. And then probably only until someone with a better guard body comes along. Carimi is too lanky for guard and too slow for tackle after his knee came apart.

McClellin seems like he might take a step forward this year. He got pushed around way too much last year, and usually overshot plays by 3 or 4 yards when he wasn't going backwards. But he's apparently put on some weight, and maybe he's learned something about technique in the offseason. Too early in his career to tell.

robsul82: Nana's Vibrator: That whole Berman to Goodell to Andruzzi thing was just bad, and then with the group of (assumedly) New Yorkers yelling "Boston sucks" during a moment of reflection for victims or a terrorist act.

They were chanting Boston Strong.

I didn't rewind it.   I was hoping that's what they were yelling but it just didn't sound like it.  Did that whole episode make it into the draft thread last night?
/still too tired.  probably time to stop posting

Nana's Vibrator: robsul82: Nana's Vibrator: That whole Berman to Goodell to Andruzzi thing was just bad, and then with the group of (assumedly) New Yorkers yelling "Boston sucks" during a moment of reflection for victims or a terrorist act.

They were chanting Boston Strong.

I didn't rewind it.   I was hoping that's what they were yelling but it just didn't sound like it.  Did that whole episode make it into the draft thread last night?
/still too tired.  probably time to stop posting

Yeah, I think there was some initial confusion in the thread but it dissipated pretty quick.

Pretty much the entire Seahawks' draft under Carroll and Schneider have proven the "experts" wrong over and over again.  A reach for Russell Wilson?  Please.  A C-minus for the 2012 draft?  Screw you, Kiper.

\in Carroll we trust
\\hey, the guy was able to get Mike Williams to produce
\\\for a while

Nana's Vibrator: abhorrent1: tommyl66: On a tangent, but do most people enjoy having the first round on Thursday night? Being an east coast Pats fan I have an obvious bias (the Pats weren't on the clock until 11:15 pm or so) but it just seems silly to have it so late at night.

Should they make a new rule and change it just for the Pats? Oh wait, they already do that.

I was exhausted but stayed up to see the Pats pick.  Then they traded it.  And what ensued was one of the most beuatifully awkward and mistimed things I've seen on television in some time.  That whole Berman to Goodell to Andruzzi thing was just bad, and then with the group of (assumedly) New Yorkers yelling "Boston sucks" during a moment of reflection for victims or a terrorist act.  Strange all around.

Yeah, staying up to see them trade the pick is a pain. At least today they have four picks, so it should be intresting

Nana's Vibrator: robsul82: Nana's Vibrator: That whole Berman to Goodell to Andruzzi thing was just bad, and then with the group of (assumedly) New Yorkers yelling "Boston sucks" during a moment of reflection for victims or a terrorist act.

They were chanting Boston Strong.

I didn't rewind it.   I was hoping that's what they were yelling but it just didn't sound like it.  Did that whole episode make it into the draft thread last night?
/still too tired.  probably time to stop posting

One would think they should be chanting Boston Strong, but then again they were also supposed to boo the Jets picks and they didn't do that so I don't know what to believe anymore.

You know why I dislike espn round the clock commentary?
Because you can dig down into statistics and make any kind of assumption and statement you want, announce it as a fact, then 12 hours later dig up another set of stats that completely contradict what you said and point to it as another fact.
Now do it with 52 commentators all day everyday.

tommyl66: Lost Thought 00: seumasokelly: Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: Imagine this year's draft without the rookie pay scale.

Fisher would not have been #1, I can say that for sure. The tidal wave of teams trying to trade back would have been embarrassing.

I could legitimately see some teams decide it's better to not pick at all in the first round, and just forfeit their picks when they fail to trade down.

Didn't Minnesota do something like that a few years ago? They time ran out on their pick so the next team was up, they ran their pick to the podium and once they did that the next team in line did the same. Basically Minnesota (or whatever team it was) "skipped" a few slots before making their pick.

The beauty was that they used the lower draft pick as their basis for contract negotiations rather than their original spot. I don't remember if that worked out for them or not.

I don't remember Minnesota, but Baltimore did when a few years back (their explaination was that they traded the pick to Chicago? who didn't inform the league office in time).  It worked out ok, for them as they got the guy they likely wanted after 3 slots.

Jubeebee: I could see an OL of Bushrod/Long/Garza/Carimi/Webb, since Spencer and Louis are gone.

They also have Slauson & Britton though I'm not familiar with them. Not sure putting Long on the blind side is the best idea. He's huge and fast but from what I've read, his technical skills need a lot of work. He's only been playing football a few years.

San Diego Chargers picks since 2000 (Really good players in bold):

1st Rounders:

Quentin Jammer
Sammy Davis
Eli Manning
Luis Castillo
Shawne Merriman
Antonio Cromartie
Craig Davis
Antoine Cason
Larry English
Ryan Mathews
Corey Liuget
Melvin Ingram

2nd Rounders:

Rogers Beckett
Drew Brees
Reche Caldwell
Toniu Fonoti
Terrence Kiel
Drayton Florence
Igor Olshansky
Vincent Jackson
Marcus McNeil
Eric Weddle
Jonas Mouton
Marcus Gilchrist
Kendall Reyes

All this does is depress me about how farking awesome some of the Chargers draft picks have been, but how few remain on the team...

/Chargers fans know how I feel.

BTW...Shaun Philips & Darren Sproles were both 4th rounders for the Chargers,..and Michael Turner was their 5th rounder back in 2004...

It was still a better use of a second round draft pick than Dan Bazuin.

Minnesota Vikings for the last 15 years *Bolded for a "hit"*

First round:

1997 20 Dwayne Rudd LB Alabama
1998 21 Randy Moss WR Marshall
1999 11 Daunte Culpepper QB Central Florida 29 Dimitrius Underwood DE Michigan State
2000 25 Chris Hovan DT Boston College
2001 27 Michael Bennett RB Wisconsin
2002 7 Bryant McKinnie OT Miami (Florida)
2003 9 Kevin Williams DT Oklahoma State [20]
2004 20 Kenechi Udeze DE USC [21]
2005 7 Troy Williamson WR South Carolina [22]
18 Erasmus James DE Wisconsin
2006 17 Chad Greenway LB Iowa
2007 7 Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma
2008 - - No Pick - - [23]
2009 22 Percy Harvin WR Florida
2010 - - No Pick - - [24]
2011 12 Christian Ponder QB Florida State
2012 4 Matt Kalil OT USC  29 Harrison Smith S Notre Dame

Second round:

TORRIAN GRAY (49), S, Virginia Tech
KAILEE WONG (51), LB, Stanford
JIM KLEINSASSER (44), TE, North Dakota.
FRED ROBBINS (55), DT, Wake Forest.  MICHAEL BOIREAU (56), DE, Miami (Fla.).
WILLIE HOWARD (57), DT, Stanford
RAONALL SMITH (38), LB, Washington State
E.J. HENDERSON (40), LB, Maryland  (Wasn't HoF by any stretech yet was our starting MLB for at least 5 years...)
DONTARRIOUS THOMAS (48), LB, Auburn
MARCUS JOHNSON (49), G, Mississippi
CEDRIC GRIFFIN (48), CB, Texas.
TARVARIS JACKSON (64), QB, Alabama State  (Brad Childress = lol)
RYAN COOK (51), C, New Mexico
SIDNEY RICE (44), WR, South Carolina
TYRELL JOHNSON (43), S, Arkansas State.
CHRIS COOK (34), CB, Virginia (Could be good if he stoped beating the shiat out of women).
TOBY GERHART (51), RB, Stanford
KYLE RUDOLPH (43), TE, Notre Dame

TL;DR version = Not really ESPN. Not really.

Bruce Springsteen's Next Tour Stop: Anyone else out there intrigued by that d-lineman at SMU who was a track God in Estonia?  Old and raw, but did he kill that bowl game.

I'd love it if the Giants got him; raw...but he could be an older version of JPP.

Brees, 2nd round
Graham, 3rd round
Sproles, 4th round
Colston, 7th round (3 picks from Mr. Irrelevant)
PT, undrafted
Moore, undrafted

Meanwhile, the D has a bunch of first rounders on it, IIRC.

I can't wait for Jerry Jones to take a guy in round two that would have been available as an undrafted rookie free agent.

Good times.

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