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(Telegraph)   Oh, c'mon. That's crazy talk   (blogs.telegraph.co.uk) divider line 60
    More: Obvious, prison populations, admission note, violent crime, British Crime Survey  
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4524 clicks; posted to Politics » on 24 Apr 2013 at 11:45 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-04-24 11:49:30 AM  
no
 
2013-04-24 11:50:28 AM  
But of course!

Let's say we have N violent criminals. One of them gets caught, tried, convicted, and sent to prison; now we have N - 1 violent criminals, and no one can dispute that N - 1
 
2013-04-24 11:51:12 AM  

qorkfiend: But of course!

Let's say we have N violent criminals. One of them gets caught, tried, convicted, and sent to prison; now we have N - 1 violent criminals, and no one can dispute that N - 1


No one can dispute that N - 1 < N.

Fark you, Fark. And fark you, qorkfiend, for not previewing.
 
2013-04-24 11:53:01 AM  
Ask California where the prison budget is nearing 50% of the state budget and crime has not dropped despite 3 strikes.
 
2013-04-24 11:54:28 AM  
So long as you never release any of them back out into the real world.

Actually if we just locked up everyone except the 100 nicest people on Earth for life, the world would probably be super peaceful.
 
2013-04-24 11:54:55 AM  
I seriously doubt it.

Also, even if we take it as fact, not worth it.
 
2013-04-24 11:57:17 AM  

CorporatePerson: So long as you never release any of them back out into the real world.

Actually if we just locked up everyone except the 100 nicest people on Earth for life, the world would probably be super peaceful.


I would attack the other 99 to try and let you all out so not really.
 
2013-04-24 12:04:17 PM  
"In states where consumption of leaded gasoline declined slowly, crime declined slowly. Where it declined quickly, crime declined quickly."

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasol i n e
 
2013-04-24 12:05:07 PM  
The UK has an incarceration rate of 154 per 100,00.
The US has an incarceration rate of 716 per 100,00 or about 5 times the rate.

So, yes, it may be possible that if your country has a low incarceration rate you might not be putting enough criminals in jail. jailing more criminals might be the right idea for the UK.

But in the US, with the highest incarceration rate and one of the highest violent crime rates, I don't think more  of what's not working is a good solution.
 
2013-04-24 12:05:29 PM  
Considering this is about European crime rates, then yes, there would be a link. Mostly because European countries are placing stiffer sentences on serious crimes than they did 10-20 years ago.
 
2013-04-24 12:07:26 PM  

CorporatePerson: So long as you never release any of them back out into the real world.

Actually if we just locked up everyone except the 100 nicest people on Earth for life, the world would probably be super peaceful.


Ask any cop, 95% of crime is done by about 3% of the population.  Recidivism is like 75%.  Execpt for a night in the drunk tank in your early 20's, the overwhelming mass majority will never see the inside of a cell.
 
2013-04-24 12:08:25 PM  

Lazarus_: "In states where consumption of leaded gasoline declined slowly, crime declined slowly. Where it declined quickly, crime declined quickly."

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasol i n e


I am fascinated by this link.  I can't tell if I am being trolled or not.
 
2013-04-24 12:10:27 PM  
It's one of the reasons why I have some hope for the next generation:

America's Real Criminal Element: Lead
 
2013-04-24 12:11:55 PM  
It IS crazy talk.

the US locks up more of it's own citizens than nearly every other country AND we have one of the highest crimes rates.

Correlation Causation

Pirates do not prevent global warming either.
sparrowism.soc.srcf.net
 
2013-04-24 12:12:13 PM  

Frozboz: Lazarus_: "In states where consumption of leaded gasoline declined slowly, crime declined slowly. Where it declined quickly, crime declined quickly."

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasol i n e

I am fascinated by this link.  I can't tell if I am being trolled or not.


It's actually a very interesting article. Definitely makes you think about all of the lead in the environment and how it affects everyone to this day.
 
2013-04-24 12:14:07 PM  
Arrest everyone and there's no crime. PROBLEM SOLVED, LIBS!

I mean, what else are we going to do? Work with youth in the juvenile justice system to make sure their lives aren't ruined by a few mistakes they made as a kid, thus keeping them out of the prison system and making them contributing members of society? Or what, work with the private sector to improve the communities where a lot of these offenders come from, so they are less likely to be sent to, or return to, prison? Or remove disproportionate penalties for victim-less crimes, such as marijuana possession, which reduces the ability of those punished to lead a successful life?

That sounds hard. Let's lock them all up forever.
 
2013-04-24 12:18:25 PM  

pxsteel: CorporatePerson: So long as you never release any of them back out into the real world.

Actually if we just locked up everyone except the 100 nicest people on Earth for life, the world would probably be super peaceful.

Ask any cop, 95% of crime is done by about 3% of the population.  Recidivism is like 75%.  Execpt for a night in the drunk tank in your early 20's, the overwhelming mass majority will never see the inside of a cell.



Stated another way: 1 in 32 US citizens is behind bars at this moment.
 
2013-04-24 12:23:13 PM  
The stupidest part of the article seems to be where the author says "It may be difficult to prove that higher prison rates cut crime" immediately after noting "Canada has experienced roughly the same decline in crime without the same lengthening of prison sentences."

Yes, that would seem to make the proof quite difficult.
 
2013-04-24 12:23:52 PM  
It amuses me how people think society has a set number of criminals and once you lock them up, society is safe.
 
2013-04-24 12:30:30 PM  

BafflerMeal: pxsteel: CorporatePerson: So long as you never release any of them back out into the real world.

Actually if we just locked up everyone except the 100 nicest people on Earth for life, the world would probably be super peaceful.

Ask any cop, 95% of crime is done by about 3% of the population.  Recidivism is like 75%.  Execpt for a night in the drunk tank in your early 20's, the overwhelming mass majority will never see the inside of a cell.


Stated another way: 1 in 32 US citizens is behind bars at this moment.


We can argue about how many of the drug related ones should or should'nt be in there, but the rest pretty much earned it.  Given the justice (defence) system we have had the last 30 years, if you are in prison, you farked up pretty bad.  Yeah, I know there are probably some innocent people in prison, but that # is really really really small.
 
2013-04-24 12:48:05 PM  

Princess Ryans Knickers: Ask California where the prison budget is nearing 50% of the state budget and crime has not dropped despite 3 strikes.


Wouldn't be if it was just 3 strikes and we throw you off a cliff.  We need more rapist/murderer mass graves.
 
2013-04-24 12:49:11 PM  

Infernalist: It amuses me how people think society has a set number of criminals and once you lock them up, society is safe.


It amuses me to think that people think increased incarceration rates has nothing to do with the decline in crime.

Of course it does. Other factors (better policing, abortion, lead gasoline) also contributed, but it's ignorant to refuse to believe that locking up proven criminals for longer periods of time wont decrease crime rates. A society has to weigh the benefit of decreased crime with the cost and fairness of harsher prison terms.
 
2013-04-24 12:53:12 PM  

SpectroBoy: It IS crazy talk.

the US locks up more of it's own citizens than nearly every other country AND we have one of the highest crimes rates.

Correlation Causation

Pirates do not prevent global warming either.


Unbeliever!

Cheers

// may you someday be touched by his noodly appendage
 
2013-04-24 12:55:09 PM  

Car_Ramrod: I mean, what else are we going to do? Work with youth in the juvenile justice system to make sure their lives aren't ruined by a few mistakes they made as a kid, thus keeping them out of the prison system and making them contributing members of society? Or what, work with the private sector to improve the communities where a lot of these offenders come from, so they are less likely to be sent to, or return to, prison? Or remove disproportionate penalties for victim-less crimes, such as marijuana possession, which reduces the ability of those punished to lead a successful life?


Why would I want criminals to lead a successful life?  Imagine a world where all the criminals were successful.  It would look like Washington DC... everywhere.
 
2013-04-24 12:56:02 PM  

Debeo Summa Credo: It amuses me to think that people think increased incarceration rates has nothing to do with the decline in crime.


Why does it amuse you that people are aware correlation isn't causation?

Canada has experienced roughly the same decline in crime without the same lengthening of prison sentences.
The UK has an incarceration rate of 154 per 100,00.
The US has an incarceration rate of 716 per 100,00 or about 5 times the rate.
 
2013-04-24 12:56:52 PM  
Next up:

www.mygladiators.com
 
2013-04-24 01:00:47 PM  

impaler: Debeo Summa Credo: It amuses me to think that people think increased incarceration rates has nothing to do with the decline in crime.

Why does it amuse you that people are aware correlation isn't causation?

Canada has experienced roughly the same decline in crime without the same lengthening of prison sentences.
The UK has an incarceration rate of 154 per 100,00.
The US has an incarceration rate of 716 per 100,00 or about 5 times the rate.


The UK does not have video games, TV or movies.  That must be it.
 
2013-04-24 01:06:18 PM  

CorporatePerson: So long as you never release any of them back out into the real world.

Actually if we just locked up everyone except the 100 nicest people on Earth for life, the world would probably be super peaceful.


How about we just institute the death penalty for every infraction?
 
2013-04-24 01:09:22 PM  
And yet you and your family are almost guaranteed to be attacked by a PCP-addled terrorist wielding an AK-47 in your living room unless you stock up on military-grade assault rifles.

/NRA
 
2013-04-24 01:24:21 PM  
That man sure did cite an awful lot of number which, in combination, didn't actually mean a single damn thing.

/ CAUSALITY DOES NOT WORK THAT WAY! GOOD NIGHT!
 
2013-04-24 01:26:20 PM  

abb3w: The stupidest part of the article seems to be where the author says "It may be difficult to prove that higher prison rates cut crime" immediately after noting "Canada has experienced roughly the same decline in crime without the same lengthening of prison sentences."


Holy shiat.

Even most stupid people won't casually mention evidence that disproves the point they're arguing. Is TFA's author angling for a job as a Daily Mail writer or something?
 
2013-04-24 01:29:33 PM  
It may be difficult to prove that higher prison rates cut crime but it is odd that so few people are prepared to discuss the possibility - and will reach for any explanation ... staring them in the face.

And this is why we can't have intelligent news sources. What a stupid-ass statement. Right after he holds up Canada as directly contradictory evidence to his point, no less.

"I'm not saying it's longer prison sentences because I have no evidence except an arbitrary correlation.... but it's longer prison sentences and you're dumb for not just believing it"

If you're so smart you have this figured out, why don't you publish your data in the same place as some of the sociologists you're so quick to dismiss?

Oh, right, because that would require actual data and rigor instead of just sitting down at your dining room table for twenty minutes and blowing smoke out of your ass so you have something to turn in to your editor this week....
 
2013-04-24 01:30:07 PM  

Disposable Rob: CorporatePerson: So long as you never release any of them back out into the real world.

Actually if we just locked up everyone except the 100 nicest people on Earth for life, the world would probably be super peaceful.

How about we just institute the death penalty for every infraction?


Because we'd have no one to put in our private prisons. Why do you hate the economy?
 
2013-04-24 01:35:09 PM  

impaler: Debeo Summa Credo: It amuses me to think that people think increased incarceration rates has nothing to do with the decline in crime.

Why does it amuse you that people are aware correlation isn't causation?

Canada has experienced roughly the same decline in crime without the same lengthening of prison sentences.
The UK has an incarceration rate of 154 per 100,00.
The US has an incarceration rate of 716 per 100,00 or about 5 times the rate.


Incarceration has increased in the us, while violent crime has decreased, mimicking observations in the UK.

Canada is the outlier. I have no information to refute or support that other than the article. Perhaps cross-border criminality has something to do with it (canadian criminals who happen to commit and be convicted for crimes in the US are locked up for longer, and fewer US criminals are free to commit crimes in canada). Although your typical violent criminal is not an international traveler.

However the claim that increased incarceration reduces crime is supported not merely by statistical observations, but also common sense. Locking individuals up for longer periods increases deterrence, but more importantly actually keeps criminals out of the public.

I know the liberal position is "prison bad", and am quite sympathetic to te argument that we lock up too many people here. But that debate should consider all facts, including the impact of incarceration rates on crime rates.
 
2013-04-24 01:45:17 PM  
We need to face some hard truths:

1. If you're accused, you're guitly (except see action point 2 below)
2. If you're guilty, you're a criminal
3. If you're a criminal, you're a dire threat to public safety
4. Now and forever, no exceptions (except see action point 2 below)

All we need to do:

1. Life sentence for every infraction, no exceptions.
2. Unless the judge determines that you are a citizen of good character, in which case he will give you a good talking to, or possibly the Presidential Medal of Freedom, and a cookie, and tell the police to give you a ride home.
3. Privatize the prisons and let the free market reign.  The cost of running a prison will drop to nearly zero!  The prisons will pay for themselves!  Inmates will learn that work sets you free!

COMMON SENSE
 
2013-04-24 01:51:48 PM  

Debeo Summa Credo: However the claim that increased incarceration reduces crime is supported ... by statistical observations


False. The fact that a correlation exists merely provides a sensible starting point for seeking out the actual causative agents. Nothing more.

Debeo Summa Credo: common sense


Is not evidence and is often wrong.

Debeo Summa Credo: I know the liberal position is "prison bad"


Strawman.

Debeo Summa Credo: [sic] am quite sympathetic to te argument that we lock up too many people here


Irrelevant. Strawman.

Debeo Summa Credo: But that debate should consider all facts, including the impact of incarceration rates on crime rates.


Nobody said otherwise, merely that this has not been done and that the available evidence for the claim is not compelling. Strawman.

Care to try again?
 
2013-04-24 01:53:57 PM  

Debeo Summa Credo: I know the liberal position is "prison bad"


Sure you do, sparkles.
 
2013-04-24 01:54:12 PM  
Maybe crime's down because more people are getting away with it?
 
2013-04-24 01:57:25 PM  
It'd work better if we didn't have our prison system so hosed up and having people cycle through it like a revolving door.
 
2013-04-24 01:58:31 PM  
We have a higher incarceration rate because we're using prisons as a replacement for segregation. Six times as many blacks as whites are in prison in the US.
 
2013-04-24 02:03:46 PM  

Debeo Summa Credo: ncarceration has increased in the us, while violent crime has decreased, mimicking observations in the UK.

Canada is the outlier.


Violent crime has decreased in the US, UK and Canada, but Canada is the outlier? Outlier doesn't mean: "the only one that didn't change variable X." That would be the control. Canada is the control, not the outlier.
 
2013-04-24 02:04:12 PM  

Senor_Hat: Maybe crime's down because more people are getting away with it?


It's because people stopped keeping budgies.

www.scotland.gov.uk
 
2013-04-24 02:10:01 PM  
It's important to consider as well the effect of high incarceration rates on the health of entire communities. In some African American communities, incarceration rates are VERY high, and result in a lack of earning power and opportunity for young people/families. There is no question that a lack of economic opportunity correlates strongly with increased crime rates. The idea that more incarceration always equals less criminals is just too simple to be true. It may be "common sense" but remember: the common person is really stupid.
 
2013-04-24 02:11:09 PM  

skozlaw: Debeo Summa Credo: However the claim that increased incarceration reduces crime is supported ... by statistical observations

False. The fact that a correlation exists merely provides a sensible starting point for seeking out the actual causative agents. Nothing more.

Debeo Summa Credo: common sense

Is not evidence and is often wrong.

Debeo Summa Credo: I know the liberal position is "prison bad"

Strawman.

Debeo Summa Credo: [sic] am quite sympathetic to te argument that we lock up too many people here

Irrelevant. Strawman.

Debeo Summa Credo: But that debate should consider all facts, including the impact of incarceration rates on crime rates.

Nobody said otherwise, merely that this has not been done and that the available evidence for the claim is not compelling. Strawman.

Care to try again?


Steven Levitt argues that increases in prison population is attributable for 1/3rd of the reduction in crime through 2001, for what that's worth:

http://neuro.bcm.edu/eagleman/neurolaw/papers/[Levitt]2004.pdf

25-30% attributable to abortion
10% decline of crack cocaine
15% increased number of police

Factors not contributing per his study: strong economy, changing demographics (aging), gun control, concealed carry, increased capital punishment, better policing strategies.
 
2013-04-24 02:24:28 PM  
They made a desert, and called it peace.
 
2013-04-24 02:29:11 PM  
Manager: If you want to see the future, throw a treasured personal item onto the fire. [Bart tosses a small object, which explodes with a bang] Not a firecracker!Bart: Hey, I bought it from a guy on your reservation.Manager: That's Crazy Talk.Bart: No, it's true.Manager: No, I know, that's my brother, Crazy Talk. We're all a little worried about him.
 
2013-04-24 02:48:57 PM  

Debeo Summa Credo: Steven Levitt argues that increases in prison population is attributable for 1/3rd of the reduction in crime through 2001, for what that's worth:


Why wouldn't you just post that in the first place instead of that pointless, strawman-filled diatribe against "liberals"?
 
2013-04-24 02:52:26 PM  

skozlaw: Debeo Summa Credo: Steven Levitt argues that increases in prison population is attributable for 1/3rd of the reduction in crime through 2001, for what that's worth:

Why wouldn't you just post that in the first place instead of that pointless, strawman-filled diatribe against "liberals"?


It wasn't a diatribe against liberals nor strawman filled, IMO.
 
2013-04-24 02:52:35 PM  
Ctrl-F "abortion"

Ah, good. I see that's been covered already.
 
2013-04-24 04:05:23 PM  

Debeo Summa Credo: It wasn't a diatribe against liberals nor strawman filled, IMO.


I'm not interested in your opinion, I'm interested in the fact that at 1:35 PM EST you put a comment in the thread that was nothing but a diatribe that specifically called out "liberals" and attacked a number of arguments nobody was putting forward when you presumably already had a reasonable argument you could have made instead.
 
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