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(Opposing Views)   Reasonable man threatens to sue weather service over inaccurate forecasts   (opposingviews.com) divider line 55
    More: Stupid, National Weather Service, reasonable man, West Wales, exact science, Irwin Mitchell, weather forecasters, Met Office  
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4040 clicks; posted to Main » on 17 Apr 2013 at 5:52 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-04-17 05:55:37 PM
Its 20 damn 13. Why is weather prediction not perfect? Its like they aren't even trying.
 
2013-04-17 05:56:23 PM

Ned Stark: Its 20 damn 13. Why is weather prediction not perfect? Its like they aren't even trying.


Quiet down Eddard, you've been telling everyone winter is coming for years and it still hasn't farking happened.
 
2013-04-17 06:00:38 PM
This reminds me of that time when the weather reporters called for rain in Rio De Janeiro called for rain, prompting the government to cancel one of their most profitable festivals.  On the day of the festival, it was bright and sunny.  So they locked up all the weather reporters.

Now, THAT's how you get things done.
 
2013-04-17 06:02:05 PM
And from this day forth, every forecast ended with, "...and there will be a 50% chance of precipitation of some sort at Brecon Beacons National Park tomorrow. Goodnight."
 
2013-04-17 06:03:09 PM
That sort of thing only works in Italy.
 
2013-04-17 06:03:12 PM
Is he an Italian law official?
 
2013-04-17 06:05:28 PM

SultanofSchwing: Ned Stark: Its 20 damn 13. Why is weather prediction not perfect? Its like they aren't even trying.

Quiet down Eddard, you've been telling everyone winter is coming for years and it still hasn't farking happened.


Ultimate geek porn: Ned Stark from Game of Thrones with Winter Celchu from Star Wars.

"Winter is COMING!"
 
2013-04-17 06:06:09 PM

SultanofSchwing: Ned Stark: Its 20 damn 13. Why is weather prediction not perfect? Its like they aren't even trying.

Quiet down Eddard, you've been telling everyone winter is coming for years and it still hasn't farking happened.


LMAO!
 
2013-04-17 06:07:53 PM
So do something about it.
 
2013-04-17 06:09:09 PM
As a weather forecaster myself, I'll venture into forecasting that any lawsuit about a bad forecast will be struck down
 
2013-04-17 06:10:21 PM
images2.wikia.nocookie.net
 
2013-04-17 06:10:37 PM

Ned Stark: Its 20 damn 13. Why is weather prediction not perfect? Its like they aren't even trying.


It's because some farkstick math nerd had to go and invent sensitive dependence on initial condition, making even deterministic systems unpredictable!
 
2013-04-17 06:10:39 PM

Darth Vader Ginsburg: As a weather forecaster myself, I'll venture into forecasting that any lawsuit about a bad forecast will be struck down


Only a 10% chance of that happening then.
 
2013-04-17 06:11:54 PM
I dunno, last Sunday they were predicting 70 degree weather for the Chicago region. It didn't even crack 45 by me (1 hr NNW of Chicago). They didn't even provide the usual caveats of cooler up north or cooler by the lake, so we were under the impression that it might actually be pleasant on Sunday. They were wrong. wrong. wrong.

/their predictions of shiat-tons of rain for today have born fruit though
//don't tease me with predictions of warm weather and fall flat
 
2013-04-17 06:12:01 PM

SN1987a goes boom: Is he an Italian law official?


/shakes fist
 
2013-04-17 06:13:58 PM
The Weather Channel has no worries, since there is no weather on the channel.
 
2013-04-17 06:15:18 PM
The Weather Channel seems to get the forecasts in my neck of the woods about spot-on out to 72 hrs in advance (and are FAR more accurate than the local TV stations), anything beyond that is a "best guess" that is usually not that far off from what actually happens.
 
2013-04-17 06:15:29 PM

wxboy: That sort of thing only works in Italy.


Worked in Taliban Afghanistan, too, so the rumour goes.

/ sorcery and fortune-telling
 
2013-04-17 06:17:10 PM

germ78: I dunno, last Sunday they were predicting 70 degree weather for the Chicago region. It didn't even crack 45 by me (1 hr NNW of Chicago). They didn't even provide the usual caveats of cooler up north or cooler by the lake, so we were under the impression that it might actually be pleasant on Sunday. They were wrong. wrong. wrong.

/their predictions of shiat-tons of rain for today have born fruit though
//don't tease me with predictions of warm weather and fall flat


It was in the 70's for me on Sunday in Chicago.

West Sjjjjjide.
 
2013-04-17 06:19:59 PM

uncleacid: The Weather Channel has no worries, since there is no weather on the channel.


That is because the weather had been driven underground by black helicopters...
 
2013-04-17 06:20:38 PM
"Well, there's a slight chance we might get some snow so I'll just put one flake up on the map."

www.glennbeck.com

wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com

The Chicago blizzard of 1967

/He started the weather channel
 
2013-04-17 06:23:11 PM
Not surprising.  My local news website gets the most comments on the weather reports, mostly attacking them mercilessly for inaccuracy.
 
2013-04-17 06:26:29 PM
Inaccurate weather forecasts? FFS, that's par for the course here in New England. Believe tomorrow's forecast at best; two days ahead if you want to take the chance. After that, you'd have better luck channeling Nostradamus.
 
2013-04-17 06:27:36 PM
25.media.tumblr.com
 
2013-04-17 06:36:34 PM
24.media.tumblr.com
 
2013-04-17 06:36:58 PM

"The chairman of the Dan-Yr-Ogof cave, Ashford Price, is threatening to sue the United Kingdom's National Weather Service, the Met Office, for putting off visitors."


When a cave has a name like that, I'd be less concerned about the weather and more concerned about Cthulhu coming out of the cave to suck your soul from your body.

 
2013-04-17 06:39:40 PM
72hrs in advance from the Weather Channel? Does not compute.  Most meteorological models generally are good out to 48hrs with a crap shoot out to 84hrs.

ClavellBCMI: The Weather Channel seems to get the forecasts in my neck of the woods about spot-on out to 72 hrs in advance (and are FAR more accurate than the local TV stations), anything beyond that is a "best guess" that is usually not that far off from what actually happens.

 
2013-04-17 06:43:13 PM
I want Gubbermint money! Gimmee! Gimmee! Gimmee!

And keep your gubbermint hands off of it!
 
2013-04-17 06:44:00 PM
Weather reports are 100% accurate.... if you invert them.

Rain = no rain
no rain = rain

/problem solved?
 
2013-04-17 06:45:48 PM

illannoyin: /He started the weather channel


I heard it was a Breeeeeeeze!

/did the superscript capture the inflection?  I say yes.
 
2013-04-17 06:47:56 PM

skinink: "The chairman of the Dan-Yr-Ogof cave, Ashford Price, is threatening to sue the United Kingdom's National Weather Service, the Met Office, for putting off visitors."
When a cave has a name like that, I'd be less concerned about the weather and more concerned about Cthulhu coming out of the cave to suck your soul from your body.


Long as cthulu does it through my dick...

/watches too much japanime
 
2013-04-17 06:56:56 PM
The sun might come up tomorrow.
 
2013-04-17 07:01:53 PM
Can we sue The Weather Channel for trying to name winter storms?
 
2013-04-17 07:14:25 PM
You know those poor Italian scientists that were sent to jail because their earthquake predictions weren't perfect?

This is worse.

Why do I say that? Because I'm reading Bastiat's The Law. Bastiat was a French economist of the XIXth century who is very popular with European Liberals (in the economic sense) despite the fact that everything he says, like much of wha Hayak says or Adam Smith says, can be turned on European Liberals as easily as a gun or a sword can be turned against the guys behind you when you get tired of attacking the guys in front.

Bastiat starts with the liberal (economic) and liberal (social) premise that the purpose of the State and the Law is to protect people's life, liberty and property from those who would plunder us all. He acknowledges that the State and the Law, in the imperfect state of past societies, fails in this and that both the State and the Law become tools of plunder and oppression.

He reads fairly like a radical leftist except that he equates socialism with plunder. Wrongly, I think. To me, socialism means first and foremost the ownership of capital by the workers and plunder is not a necessary or even a real part of socialism. It is made so by the special-pleading and propagand of the few who plunder the men (as Bastiat correctly observes, using the Law and the State as tools of plunder contrary to the real purpose of those institutions, which is to prevent plunder, oppression and slaughter).

But be that as it may, he observes correctly that whether the State and Law are made by the few, to plunder the many, or by the many, to plunder the few, they are betrayed, corrupted and destroyed by greed.

So greed is the enemy, not socialism, or capitalism, or any -ism.

Demanding that the state (or what is the same thing, the scientific community) recompense you when their predictions are inevitably wrong or simply "bad for business" is precisely the kind of thing that Bastiat is against. It is plunder. One, it takes resources from some and gives them to others, and two, it does so to the detriment of the aims of the Law and the State, which is to prevent this sort of thing.

If the State were to agree to compensate the tourist industry for loses incurred because the weatherman says you can expect rain or tornados on the July 4th weekend (or the Welsh equivalent, in this case), then what about the poor farmers who plant and find their crops drowned by floods or roasted by drought? What about you and me? Surely everybody should get a cut of the loot because incorrect weather (or simply inconvenient weather) costs us money.

The weather man or girl should always predict Sun and a lovely day, even if it is absolutely certain that the worst hurricane in the history of the coast is headed for you, because that way you will drown in a hotel and not in your home, to the profit of the tourist industry and their lobbies.

Thus, the weatherman is always wrong and must pay, especially when he is right and people stay home in the basement instead of rushing out to enjoy the predicted tornados, hail stones as large as cars, and general apocalyptic fun and profit.

Indeed, if Bastiat did not make the bourgeois assumption that all socialism is theft a priori, and thus become a special pleader for the liberal classes that he otherwise distrusts and lambasts as much as Adam Smith or Karl Marx alike, he would probably be right.

True socialism, as I see it, is not plunder, but restoration of the plunder from the lucky few who make the Laws and control the State, to those who do the actual suffering and work. Thus, Bastiat's equation is wrong in the same way that those he attacks as plunderers (elites or masses alike) are wrong. He equates plunder with the other guy and good honest graft with the home team.

Well, nobody's perfekt, as they say. But imagine if this silly Welsh bunt got his way and the scientists had to compensate people for telling them what their plunderers don't want them to hear, be it true, false, or some sort of truthiness in between. Why, there'd be a lot of climatologists, meteorlogists, geologists and so forth in jail. Because if there is one thing science does, it is warn you of the possible outcomes whether you fecking like them or not.

That is, in fact, the definition of reality and thus science. As my touchstone Philip K. Dick said, "Reality is that which, when you cease to believe in it, continues to exist." And that includes all of the world's bad news except for the stuff that is not merely probable or imbrobable, but really quite sincerely dead in the water like a certain Wicked Witch I know of.

The USA, Bastiat observed, was one country where the State and the Law were fairly good at fulfilling the aims of governance, with the government governing best, because it plunders least on behalf of all parties to the crimes of the State and the Law.  The exceptions to this generalization were slavery and tariffs. The USA has never objected to man-thieving and barriers to free trade when it suited the Powers that Be. And the people are stupid and deluded enough to go along with their masters, even some of the slaves. They believe that it is inevitable that the State and the Law be the agents of plunder. They just want them to be THEIR agents. That government or slot machine that pays out most liberally is best.

Once you start sueing people for telling you unwelcome and untimely truths, your doom is sealed. And given the inherantly chaotic nature of weather, even unwelcome and untimely approximations are better than nothing.

We all have a lot riding on the weather as on climate, biology, chemisty, physics and morality. We should not be plundering the people who inform us best about those things, or trying to keep their opinions from being aired in public.

It is just as stupid to sue a climatologist for telling you that climate change is likely to become deadly and very expensive if you don't stop pissing away the fossil fuels that Mother Nature buried for a good reason as it is to sue to keep Evolution out of biology courses and socialism out of university cirriculae.

In fact, since Bastiat's day, the US system of government, media, industry, commerce, education, etc., have become vastly more corrupt and plundering, as well as a bigger danger for the lives of Americans as well as "enemies" and "frenemies" abroad and at home. It has become a bigger oppressor and a bigger thief as well.

Everybody has a hand in your pocket now. Formerly it was just God, King and Country. Now the country and the world are like that City of Thieves where everybody is a thief and they all make a precarious living stealing from each other.

Personally, I'd sooner live on the imaginary island where people make their small but clean and honest living taking in each other's laundry.

To quote the erstwhile climate believer (when it suited her politics), Margaret Thatcher, PM, and Dame of Dull Old Witch or something like, "It's a funny old world." I think she meant funny-queer, not funny ha-ha.
 
2013-04-17 07:18:07 PM
If you want to get the real dirt on religious bigots, prigs and phonies, read the Bible.

If you want to ge the real dirt on merchants, statesmen and economists, read Adam Smith, Bastiat, Karl Marx, and Hayak.

Yes, the Prophets of Profit have as much to say against the merchantile and governing classes as the Prophets of God have to say about God's Chosen Monkeys. Like comedy, tragedy is not pretty.
 
2013-04-17 07:23:23 PM
I think it's weather reporting that sucks. Environment Canada will say something like "up to 5 cm of snow expected blah blah", but the news will be all "how should you prepare your family and home for the upcoming storm of the century?"
 
2013-04-17 07:24:54 PM
Uncertainty
encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com
 
2013-04-17 07:26:17 PM

brantgoose: wall of text


tl;dr
 
2013-04-17 07:26:49 PM

impaler: Ned Stark: Its 20 damn 13. Why is weather prediction not perfect? Its like they aren't even trying.

It's because some farkstick math nerd had to go and invent sensitive dependence on initial condition, making even deterministic systems unpredictable!



Which is why forecasters run model ensembles, running the models multiple times with small changes in the initial conditions. The final forecast takes into account multiple models, each run multiple times, with the meteorologists adding their personal experience in observing any bias in the models under similar conditions.

The NWS Area Forecast Discussions explain the reasoning behind the final official forecasts. The Model Spectrum displays the various model forecasts graphically:

www.wrh.noaa.gov

/tmyk
 
2013-04-17 07:29:20 PM
I find the gov't own NOAA.gov site to provide the most accurate forecasts.  I live in the San Bernardino mountains in SoCal and their forecasts (especially winter snow forecasts) are waaaaaaaaaay more accurate than any others.
 
2013-04-17 07:29:44 PM

common sense is an oxymoron: with the meteorologists adding their personal experience in observing any bias in the models under similar conditions.


Sounds scientific.
 
SH
2013-04-17 07:46:26 PM

CaliNJGuy: I find the gov't own NOAA.gov site to provide the most accurate forecasts.  I live in the San Bernardino mountains in SoCal and their forecasts (especially winter snow forecasts) are waaaaaaaaaay more accurate than any others.


Yup, no paid advertisers who tend to profit from gloom and doom weather forecasts.
 
2013-04-17 08:00:14 PM

SH: CaliNJGuy: I find the gov't own NOAA.gov site to provide the most accurate forecasts.  I live in the San Bernardino mountains in SoCal and their forecasts (especially winter snow forecasts) are waaaaaaaaaay more accurate than any others.

Yup, no paid advertisers who tend to profit from gloom and doom weather forecasts.


Actually I find it the other way around.  Weather.com will predict "new snow accumulation of less than one inch".  I go to NOAA.gov and their forecast will say "new snow accumulation of 4"-6"".  Big difference and theirs is more accurate.  I may not like it, but I need to know the truth.
 
2013-04-17 08:05:56 PM

brantgoose: You know those poor Italian scientists that were sent to jail because their earthquake predictions weren't perfect?

This is worse.

Why do I say that? Because I'm reading Bastiat's The Law. Bastiat was a French economist of the XIXth century who is very popular with European Liberals (in the economic sense) despite the fact that everything he says, like much of wha Hayak says or Adam Smith says, can be turned on European Liberals as easily as a gun or a sword can be turned against the guys behind you when you get tired of attacking the guys in front.

Bastiat starts with the liberal (economic) and liberal (social) premise that the purpose of the State and the Law is to protect people's life, liberty and property from those who would plunder us all. He acknowledges that the State and the Law, in the imperfect state of past societies, fails in this and that both the State and the Law become tools of plunder and oppression.

He reads fairly like a radical leftist except that he equates socialism with plunder. Wrongly, I think. To me, socialism means first and foremost the ownership of capital by the workers and plunder is not a necessary or even a real part of socialism. It is made so by the special-pleading and propagand of the few who plunder the men (as Bastiat correctly observes, using the Law and the State as tools of plunder contrary to the real purpose of those institutions, which is to prevent plunder, oppression and slaughter).

But be that as it may, he observes correctly that whether the State and Law are made by the few, to plunder the many, or by the many, to plunder the few, they are betrayed, corrupted and destroyed by greed.

So greed is the enemy, not socialism, or capitalism, or any -ism.

Demanding that the state (or what is the same thing, the scientific community) recompense you when their predictions are inevitably wrong or simply "bad for business" is precisely the kind of thing that Bastiat is against. It is plunder. One, it takes resources fro ...


If the State were to agree to compensate the tourist industry for loses incurred because the weatherman says you can expect rain or tornados on the July 4th weekend (or the Welsh equivalent, in this case), then what about the poor farmers who plant and find their crops drowned by floods or roasted by drought? What about you and me? Surely everybody should get a cut of the loot because incorrect weather (or simply inconvenient weather) costs us money.

The weather man or girl should always predict Sun and a lovely day, even if it is absolutely certain that the worst hurricane in the history of the coast is headed for you, because that way you will drown in a hotel and not in your home, to the profit of the tourist industry and their lobbies.

Thus, the weatherman is always wrong and must pay, especially when he is right and people stay home in the basement instead of rushing out to enjoy the predicted tornados, hail stones as large as cars, and general apocalyptic fun and profit.

Indeed, if Bastiat did not make the bourgeois assumption that all socialism is theft a priori, and thus become a special pleader for the liberal classes that he otherwise distrusts and lambasts as much as Adam Smith or Karl Marx alike, he would probably be right.

True socialism, as I see it, is not plunder, but restoration of the plunder from the lucky few who make the Laws and control the State, to those who do the actual suffering and work. Thus, Bastiat's equation is wrong in the same way that those he attacks as plunderers (elites or masses alike) are wrong. He equates plunder with the other guy and good honest graft with the home team.

Well, nobody's perfekt, as they say. But imagine if this silly Welsh bunt got his way and the scientists had to compensate people for telling them what their plunderers don't want them to hear, be it true, false, or some sort of truthiness in between. Why, there'd be a lot of climatologists, meteorlogists, geologists and so forth in jail. Because if there is one thing science does, it is warn you of the possible outcomes whether you fecking like them or not.

That is, in fact, the definition of reality and thus science. As my touchstone Philip K. Dick said, "Reality is that which, when you cease to believe in it, continues to exist." And that includes all of the world's bad news except for the stuff that is not merely probable or imbrobable, but really quite sincerely dead in the water like a certain Wicked Witch I know of.

The USA, Bastiat observed, was one country where the State and the Law were fairly good at fulfilling the aims of governance, with the government governing best, because it plunders least on behalf of all parties to the crimes of the State and the Law.  The exceptions to this generalization were slavery and tariffs. The USA has never objected to man-thieving and barriers to free trade when it suited the Powers that Be. And the people are stupid and deluded enough to go along with their masters, even some of the slaves. They believe that it is inevitable that the State and the Law be the agents of plunder. They just want them to be THEIR agents. That government or slot machine that pays out most liberally is best.

Once you start sueing people for telling you unwelcome and untimely truths, your doom is sealed. And given the inherantly chaotic nature of weather, even unwelcome and untimely approximations are better than nothing.

We all have a lot riding on the weather as on climate, biology, chemisty, physics and morality. We should not be plundering the people who inform us best about those things, or trying to keep their opinions from being aired in public.

It is just as stupid to sue a climatologist for telling you that climate change is likely to become deadly and very expensive if you don't stop pissing away the fossil fuels that Mother Nature buried for a good reason as it is to sue to keep Evolution out of biology courses and socialism out of university cirriculae.

In fact, since Bastiat's day, the US system of government, media, industry, commerce, education, etc., have become vastly more corrupt and plundering, as well as a bigger danger for the lives of Americans as well as "enemies" and "frenemies" abroad and at home. It has become a bigger oppressor and a bigger thief as well.

Everybody has a hand in your pocket now. Formerly it was just God, King and Country. Now the country and the world are like that City of Thieves where everybody is a thief and they all make a precarious living stealing from each other.

Personally, I'd sooner live on the imaginary island where people make their small but clean and honest living taking in each other's laundry.

To quote the erstwhile climate believer (when it suited her politics), Margaret Thatcher, PM, and Dame of Dull Old Witch or something like, "It's a funny old world." I think she meant funny-queer, not funny ha-ha.


Nice, well thought out post. I even agree with some parts of it.

>>>>>To me, socialism means first and foremost the ownership of capital by the workers and plunder is not a necessary or even a real part of socialism.

You are correct. However, this is not the conclusion reached, in practice, by virtually all of the Socialists who seized power (or, in some cases, were elected). This is because that, IMHO, ownership of the means of production is simply a rationale for seizing all property "in the name of the workers."  Cases like this generally come with a "command economy" dictate that ends up ruining the country (since the market forces of supply and demand are ignored).

In countries like Sweden, OTOH, the means of production are often sold (with government assistance) to the actual workers who are producing the items in question. Volvo comes to mind.

So are you suggesting that voting stock ownership of all large industries could be gradually and completely sold to the workers of those industries? While maintaining a competitive market economy? That would be a fascinating exercise. The problem I see is that many workers would proxy their votes to professional political types (as currently happens with with stock ownership) and you would end up with many of the same problems as we currently have.

It would be interesting to combine this with some sort of a "Social Credit" scheme.
 
2013-04-17 08:08:44 PM
YOU try predicting the future. It ain't that easy
 
2013-04-17 08:25:34 PM
common sense is an oxymoron:

The NWS Area Forecast Discussions explain the reasoning behind the final official forecasts. The Model Spectrum displays the various model forecasts graphically:

[www.wrh.noaa.gov image 850x289]


Niiice... I'll have to look for that.  The Forecast Discussion from my local NOAA office, while fascinating, is a wall of all-caps text right out of the teletype days.
 
2013-04-17 08:52:45 PM

Mega Steve: YOU try predicting the future. It ain't that easy


This post will be ignored.
 
2013-04-17 09:00:47 PM

Ned Stark: Its 20 damn 13. Why is weather prediction not perfect? Its like they aren't even trying.


I dont mind when their prediction for saturday they make on tusaday is wrong. What gets me is when they can't even get it right an hour in advance.
 
2013-04-17 09:02:29 PM
Could be worse. They could have this guy to wake up to for a weather forecast

imageshack.us
 
2013-04-17 09:03:37 PM
new.yankeemagazine.com
 
2013-04-17 10:20:18 PM
Well it is pissing and pouring here in my part of Oklahoma and tornadoes spotted. our weather guys are pretty hours when it comes to impending doom
 
2013-04-17 10:21:51 PM
Do you know what a weather forecaster has to go through every time he's wrong? 10,000 years of karmic isolation to one day. It's a miracle they are only slightly kooky and not begging for death. "The weather todaaaaYYYYY is the SAAAAAMMMMEEEE everytimeIlookoutsideIt'sRAINING!!!! Corndogs pollywogs glue a toad to a log and SAVE ME!"


geektyrant.com
 
2013-04-18 12:57:12 AM
When they say rain where I live I tend to believe them. But I live in Oregon so I guess its not hard.
 
2013-04-18 01:23:35 AM

Ned Stark: Its 20 damn 13. Why is weather prediction not perfect? Its like they aren't even trying.


Do you know how many variables affect the weather? Over a hundred thousand. It's not even possible to get it perfect.
 
2013-04-18 01:31:43 AM

skinink: "The chairman of the Dan-Yr-Ogof cave, Ashford Price, is threatening to sue the United Kingdom's National Weather Service, the Met Office, for putting off visitors."
When a cave has a name like that, I'd be less concerned about the weather and more concerned about Cthulhu coming out of the cave to suck your soul from your body.


Led Zeppelin made it sound much cooler.

HindiDiscoMonster: Weather reports are 100% accurate.... if you invert them.

Rain = no rain
no rain = rain

/problem solved?


Stop it, you're confusing the bee girl!
 
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