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(Major League Baseball)   So you are leading comfortably, and the other teams starter is out, and you have 2 outs in the 8th. You are winning this game right? right? Not if you are the Amazin's   (mlb.mlb.com ) divider line
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2257 clicks; posted to Sports » on 17 Apr 2013 at 8:55 AM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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View Voting Results: Smartest and Funniest
 
2013-04-17 09:34:18 AM  
in their defense, everyone was surprised they were ever leading.
 
2013-04-17 09:36:36 AM  
Wow. No one's ever blown a 2-run lead with more than an inning to go. That truly is amazing.
 
2013-04-17 09:37:50 AM  
Umm... "leading comfortably"? They were up all of 2 runs. Look, Subby, I realize you have a skewed perspective on things given you're a Mets fan, but the other teams in baseball routinely overcome deficits of 2 or 3 runs in the last couple of innings - yes, even with 2 outs.
 
2013-04-17 09:50:01 AM  

IAmRight: Wow. No one's ever blown a 2-run lead with more than an inning to go. That truly is amazing.

 
2013-04-17 09:52:22 AM  
worst sports headline.....EVER......
 
2013-04-17 09:54:34 AM  
nothing surprised me about the Mets blowing a lead anymore.
 
2013-04-17 10:06:13 AM  
This headline is bad and subby should feel bad.
 
2013-04-17 10:08:30 AM  
It ain't over till it's over.
 
2013-04-17 10:11:04 AM  
Blowing a 2 run lead in the 8th inning isn't really newsworthy. I would guess it happens 100s of times a season.

It was 2 errors and a single with two outs. It's pretty rough for Colorado when they should have gotten 5 outs and gave up 1 single, and blow the game, but i would think this is far more common then a game that is delayed at 0-0 in the 9th inning.
 
2013-04-17 10:11:06 AM  
Wasn't there a team down by 7 that scored 8 in the bottom of the ninth with like 1 out? Doesn't that happen once or twice every season?

// this is only news if Strikeouts McThrowsFast was on the mound for the BS
 
2013-04-17 10:24:46 AM  

JohnHall: but i would think this is far more common then a game that is delayed at 0-0 in the 9th inning.


Speaking of which, they resume that mess at 5:30p today, before the regular game. Knowing the Phillies, the sequence will probably go like this:

 5:30 - resume play, 0-0, bottom of the 9th, no outs
 5:31 - first pitch of resumed game
 5:31:10 - game ends on walkoff HR

followed by both teams scoring 8 or 9 runs in the first 3 innings of the regularly-scheduled game.
 
2013-04-17 10:25:10 AM  

IAmRight: Wow. No one's ever blown a 2-run lead with more than an inning to go. That truly is amazing.


They were up 8-2 in the 5th.  But.  It's at Coors, where anything can happen.  It was the 2nd game of a doubleheader, and the Mets' starter didn't make it out of the 5th, so the pen was drained.  They hadn't played in three days cause of snow.  And, it was 35 degrees.  Not fun baseball weather.

I'm torn between saying that nothing yesterday meant much, because of the weather, and wondering when the Mets will send down Josh Edgin.
 
2013-04-17 10:28:03 AM  

JohnHall: Blowing a 2 run lead in the 8th inning isn't really newsworthy. I would guess it happens 100s of times a season.



Carlos Marmol only pitches like 60-70 times a year.
 
2013-04-17 10:31:34 AM  
Still can't believe cargo fell to the second round in our FB draft.

Anyways, it's the mets
 
2013-04-17 10:41:10 AM  
The braves beating the nats the other day was a better candidate for this headline. Down 3 after 7.2/3 of the game to come back and tie it on an error then win it in the 10th.

Any nats fans want to argue their bullpen is just as good as it was last year?
 
2013-04-17 10:58:53 AM  
As long as we're bashing on subby...

Who cares about the other team's starter?  Has a team EVER thought, "gee, we're up 2 in the 8th.  But the other team's starter is still in!  We're dooooooooooomed."
 
2013-04-17 10:59:34 AM  
media.mlive.com
2-run lead?  Amateur!
 
2013-04-17 11:00:35 AM  

steamingpile: The braves beating the nats the other day was a better candidate for this headline. Down 3 after 7.2/3 of the game to come back and tie it on an error then win it in the 10th.

Any nats fans want to argue their bullpen is just as good as it was last year?


Not with you. The bullpen isn't bad. Perhaps not as good as last years, but I remember you saying that the Nats starting rotation was their weakness last year, and that was well before the Strasburg shutdown conversation.
 
2013-04-17 11:10:54 AM  
Teams blow a 2-run lead that late in the game several times per week. There is no story here. If it had been an 8-run lead with two outs in the eighth inning, then we might have a story.
 
2013-04-17 11:39:08 AM  
This must have been submitted by the same person who thought the strike three call on Ben Zobrist the other day was the worst call in baseball history.
 
2013-04-17 11:41:26 AM  

Dafatone: IAmRight: Wow. No one's ever blown a 2-run lead with more than an inning to go. That truly is amazing.

They were up 8-2 in the 5th.  But.  It's at Coors, where anything can happen.  It was the 2nd game of a doubleheader, and the Mets' starter didn't make it out of the 5th, so the pen was drained.  They hadn't played in three days cause of snow.  And, it was 35 degrees.  Not fun baseball weather.

I'm torn between saying that nothing yesterday meant much, because of the weather, and wondering when the Mets will send down Josh Edgin.


It gets better. The Met's starter could've well played into the game. He was only rested because there might be a double-header on Saturday, and he is the only viable option to pitch on 3 days rest
 
2013-04-17 11:49:43 AM  

andhravodu: Dafatone: IAmRight: Wow. No one's ever blown a 2-run lead with more than an inning to go. That truly is amazing.

They were up 8-2 in the 5th.  But.  It's at Coors, where anything can happen.  It was the 2nd game of a doubleheader, and the Mets' starter didn't make it out of the 5th, so the pen was drained.  They hadn't played in three days cause of snow.  And, it was 35 degrees.  Not fun baseball weather.

I'm torn between saying that nothing yesterday meant much, because of the weather, and wondering when the Mets will send down Josh Edgin.

It gets better. The Met's starter could've well played into the game. He was only rested because there might be a double-header on Saturday, and he is the only viable option to pitch on 3 days rest


I meant to say that the starter in the 1st game didn't make it out of the 5th, so the pen was tired.

The starter in the 2nd game had "only" given up 2 runs in 4 innings, but he'd given up 4 hits and 3 walks.  Nothing about Aaron Laffey looks good so far.  I didn't have any faith that he'd hold it together going forward.

/of course, I was thinking the same thing about Edgin.  And Hawkins.
 
2013-04-17 11:50:39 AM  
I think I found subby.

upload.wikimedia.org
 
2013-04-17 12:07:42 PM  

GiantRex: Teams blow a 2-run lead that late in the game several times per week. There is no story here. If it had been an 8-run lead with two outs in the eighth inning, then we might have a story.


According to fangraphs, after the second out in the eigth the Rockies had a 12.7% chance of winning. So it happens about 1/8th of the time a team has a two run lead with no one on with 2 outs in the 8th.   Even with runners at 2nd and third with two outs in the 8th, fangraphs had the Rockies odd of winning at 24.7% or about 1 in 4.  So not impossible, but not something that happens more than once a week just because the range of possible situations is such that maybe one game a night is going to be two down with two outs and no one on or two outs with runners at 2nd and 3rd in the bottom of the 8th.
 
2013-04-17 01:08:43 PM  

steamingpile: The braves beating the nats the other day was a better candidate for this headline. Down 3 after 7.2/3 of the game to come back and tie it on an error then win it in the 10th.  Any nats fans want to argue their bullpen is just as good as it was last year?


In other news, Coco Crisp is the best hitter in baseball.

A bullpen where the bulk of the innings go to Soriano/Storen/Clippard/Mattheus/Stammen is plenty good.  It's basically last year's bullpen with Soriano replacing Sean Burnett.

All of those guys had career-average-ish years in 2012.  Stammen's the only one who made a big leap, but his previous seasons were as a starter.  Everyone except Soriano is young enough that you wouldn't expect decline.  No one is hurt.  No one is going to trade or demote any of those guys.

But please, return to running around thinking Rafael Soriano is horrible because he has a 6.00 ERA less than 10% of the way through the season.  I bet you can get good Vegas odds taking Coco Crisp for the AL MVP.
 
2013-04-17 01:13:33 PM  

LucklessWonder: steamingpile: The braves beating the nats the other day was a better candidate for this headline. Down 3 after 7.2/3 of the game to come back and tie it on an error then win it in the 10th.

Any nats fans want to argue their bullpen is just as good as it was last year?

Not with you. The bullpen isn't bad. Perhaps not as good as last years, but I remember you saying that the Nats starting rotation was their weakness last year, and that was well before the Strasburg shutdown conversation.


It's basically the same guys.  I mean, they're no longer throwing Brad Lidge out there once in a while.  But it's mostly the same guys, age 28-29 instead of 27-28.

And yeah.  Steamingpile's prediction record is, well, a steaming pile.
 
2013-04-17 01:16:43 PM  

thecpt: Still can't believe cargo fell to the second round in our FB draft.


It would be pretty funny if he got traded.  Career .260/.316/.430 hitter when not at Coors.  The Vinny Castilla of his day, if you will.
 
2013-04-17 01:19:31 PM  
Meh, I'm just excited that this Matt Harvey kid seems legit. When I was following him him in AAA last year they reported that his curveball was mediocre and he might not be able to get by just on fastball/slider - I'm guessing he's developed a good hook?

/also, my OotP sim league needs a manager for the Mariners. EIP
 
2013-04-17 01:21:11 PM  
Thought for sure it would be the cubs
 
2013-04-17 01:37:42 PM  

thecpt: Still can't believe cargo fell to the second round in our FB draft.


Weird stuff happens in that league. I managed to pick up Fernando Rodney on waivers.
 
2013-04-17 02:02:00 PM  

zarberg: Meh, I'm just excited that this Matt Harvey kid seems legit. When I was following him him in AAA last year they reported that his curveball was mediocre and he might not be able to get by just on fastball/slider - I'm guessing he's developed a good hook?


Peripherals point to him being good, but not nearly as good as he's been this month.  His arsenal looks pretty standard-- lots of fastballs, with an even spread of curveballs, sliders, and changeups.  He does most of his damage with the fastball/slider combo, but being able to mix in even two more average pitches will give him longevity.  Looks like a solid #2/#3 guy in the near term, with a bright future.

Any pitcher with a high K rate at the MLB level is a good bet.  There are many examples of young guys fixing wildness, or learning to keep the ball down.  There are fewer examples of guys with no "stuff" suddenly acquiring it.
 
2013-04-17 02:46:54 PM  
Grammer assplode's
 
2013-04-17 02:47:34 PM  

chimp_ninja: zarberg: Meh, I'm just excited that this Matt Harvey kid seems legit. When I was following him him in AAA last year they reported that his curveball was mediocre and he might not be able to get by just on fastball/slider - I'm guessing he's developed a good hook?

Peripherals point to him being good, but not nearly as good as he's been this month.  His arsenal looks pretty standard-- lots of fastballs, with an even spread of curveballs, sliders, and changeups.  He does most of his damage with the fastball/slider combo, but being able to mix in even two more average pitches will give him longevity.  Looks like a solid #2/#3 guy in the near term, with a bright future.

Any pitcher with a high K rate at the MLB level is a good bet.  There are many examples of young guys fixing wildness, or learning to keep the ball down.  There are fewer examples of guys with no "stuff" suddenly acquiring it.


Which peripherals?

The biggest "knock" I can come up with is that he hasn't faced many good lineups.  Padres, Marlins, Twins I think.  The Twins can hit some but that's about it.

Obviously he's not keeping this up, but I think he can be very good this year.
 
2013-04-17 03:01:19 PM  

Dafatone: chimp_ninja: zarberg: Meh, I'm just excited that this Matt Harvey kid seems legit. When I was following him him in AAA last year they reported that his curveball was mediocre and he might not be able to get by just on fastball/slider - I'm guessing he's developed a good hook?

Peripherals point to him being good, but not nearly as good as he's been this month.  His arsenal looks pretty standard-- lots of fastballs, with an even spread of curveballs, sliders, and changeups.  He does most of his damage with the fastball/slider combo, but being able to mix in even two more average pitches will give him longevity.  Looks like a solid #2/#3 guy in the near term, with a bright future.

Any pitcher with a high K rate at the MLB level is a good bet.  There are many examples of young guys fixing wildness, or learning to keep the ball down.  There are fewer examples of guys with no "stuff" suddenly acquiring it.

Which peripherals?

The biggest "knock" I can come up with is that he hasn't faced many good lineups.  Padres, Marlins, Twins I think.  The Twins can hit some but that's about it.

Obviously he's not keeping this up, but I think he can be very good this year.


BABIP is .116, LOB% is 94.3%.

For reference the lowest BABIP last season for a starting pitcher was .241 (Jered Weaver), and the highest strand rate was 82.7%.

More balls are going to fall in for hits, and more runners will cross the plate.  He's spreading out his baserunners unusually well, and no pitcher has shown that to be a repeatable 'skill'.

His xFIP is 3.07, which is a better estimate of what his ERA would be now if he had average "luck".  Throw in the small sample size, and he looks good but not yet amazin'.
 
2013-04-17 04:04:42 PM  

chimp_ninja: Dafatone: chimp_ninja: zarberg: Meh, I'm just excited that this Matt Harvey kid seems legit. When I was following him him in AAA last year they reported that his curveball was mediocre and he might not be able to get by just on fastball/slider - I'm guessing he's developed a good hook?

Peripherals point to him being good, but not nearly as good as he's been this month.  His arsenal looks pretty standard-- lots of fastballs, with an even spread of curveballs, sliders, and changeups.  He does most of his damage with the fastball/slider combo, but being able to mix in even two more average pitches will give him longevity.  Looks like a solid #2/#3 guy in the near term, with a bright future.

Any pitcher with a high K rate at the MLB level is a good bet.  There are many examples of young guys fixing wildness, or learning to keep the ball down.  There are fewer examples of guys with no "stuff" suddenly acquiring it.

Which peripherals?

The biggest "knock" I can come up with is that he hasn't faced many good lineups.  Padres, Marlins, Twins I think.  The Twins can hit some but that's about it.

Obviously he's not keeping this up, but I think he can be very good this year.

BABIP is .116, LOB% is 94.3%.

For reference the lowest BABIP last season for a starting pitcher was .241 (Jered Weaver), and the highest strand rate was 82.7%.

More balls are going to fall in for hits, and more runners will cross the plate.  He's spreading out his baserunners unusually well, and no pitcher has shown that to be a repeatable 'skill'.

His xFIP is 3.07, which is a better estimate of what his ERA would be now if he had average "luck".  Throw in the small sample size, and he looks good but not yet amazin'.


That's a weirdly high xFIP for him, isn't it?  His K and K/BB rates are fantastic.  xFIP is the one with an "expected" HR rate, whereas FIP uses the pitcher's actual HR rate, right?

He's not sustaining a BABIP anywhere near .116, because duh.  But I am a little surprised at his xFIP being that high, unless I'm just mistaken as to what a good xFIP is.  3.07 is still very good, but it's not great, I'd think.

Ah.  xFIP's home run factor isn't the league's hr rate, it's the pitcher's fly balls * league hr / fb.  To which I say bah, since isn't that completely screwing over fly ball pitchers?
 
2013-04-17 04:25:37 PM  

Dafatone: That's a weirdly high xFIP for him, isn't it? His K and K/BB rates are fantastic. xFIP is the one with an "expected" HR rate, whereas FIP uses the pitcher's actual HR rate, right?

He's not sustaining a BABIP anywhere near .116, because duh. But I am a little surprised at his xFIP being that high, unless I'm just mistaken as to what a good xFIP is. 3.07 is still very good, but it's not great, I'd think.

Ah. xFIP's home run factor isn't the league's hr rate, it's the pitcher's fly balls * league hr / fb. To which I say bah, since isn't that completely screwing over fly ball pitchers?


It does, but the data imply that pitchers have very little long-term control over what % of their fly balls go over the fence, other than park factors.  The argument is that a low HR/FB ratio is not sustainable.

That said, it would seem to screw over pitchers in huge parks, who might risk more fly balls (pitch up in the zone more), knowing that most will drop for long outs.

The five lowest HR/FB pitchers last year were: A Dodger, a Mariner, a National, and an Athletic.  And a D-Back, which I can't explain.
 
2013-04-17 04:33:31 PM  

chimp_ninja: Dafatone: That's a weirdly high xFIP for him, isn't it? His K and K/BB rates are fantastic. xFIP is the one with an "expected" HR rate, whereas FIP uses the pitcher's actual HR rate, right?

He's not sustaining a BABIP anywhere near .116, because duh. But I am a little surprised at his xFIP being that high, unless I'm just mistaken as to what a good xFIP is. 3.07 is still very good, but it's not great, I'd think.

Ah. xFIP's home run factor isn't the league's hr rate, it's the pitcher's fly balls * league hr / fb. To which I say bah, since isn't that completely screwing over fly ball pitchers?

It does, but the data imply that pitchers have very little long-term control over what % of their fly balls go over the fence, other than park factors.  The argument is that a low HR/FB ratio is not sustainable.

That said, it would seem to screw over pitchers in huge parks, who might risk more fly balls (pitch up in the zone more), knowing that most will drop for long outs.

The five lowest HR/FB pitchers last year were: A Dodger, a Mariner, a National, and an Athletic.  And a D-Back, which I can't explain.


See, that trips me up about xFIP.  That fly balls are inherently bad.  I know it's a very solid predictive tool, and one extreme example doesn't prove much, but man, Jim Palmer can't look all that good by xFIP.
 
2013-04-17 05:24:57 PM  

LucklessWonder: steamingpile: The braves beating the nats the other day was a better candidate for this headline. Down 3 after 7.2/3 of the game to come back and tie it on an error then win it in the 10th.

Any nats fans want to argue their bullpen is just as good as it was last year?

Not with you. The bullpen isn't bad. Perhaps not as good as last years, but I remember you saying that the Nats starting rotation was their weakness last year, and that was well before the Strasburg shutdown conversation.


I said they were young, but even last year I said the bullpen was pitching above their normal ERAs which was true, now most are back to normal or worse.

And their bullpen isn't bad?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/s tat/pitching/split/128

Maybe actual stats showing how bad it really is will force you to admit I was right.
 
2013-04-17 05:28:15 PM  
What about the other team's starter subby?
 
2013-04-17 05:39:50 PM  

steamingpile: I said they were young, but even last year I said the bullpen was pitching above their normal ERAs which was true, now most are back to normal or worse.


Let's pretend for a moment that ERA is the best/only way to measure reliever quality.  Here's everyone who threw 25+ IP out of the bullpen for the Nationals in 2012:

Drew Storen: 2012: 2.37, Career: 2.98
Tyler Clippard: 2012: 3.72, Career: 3.17
Ryan Mattheus: 2012: 2.85, Career: 2.89
Sean Burnett: 2012: 2.38, Career (as reliever): 3.22
Mike Gonzalez: 2012: 3.03, Career: 2.99
Tom Gorzelanny: 2012 (as reliever): 2.90 , Career (as reliever):  3.19
Henry Rodriguez: 2012: 5.83, Career: 4.30

Wow.  What an amazingly anomalous year they had.

So, this year they have basically the same guys, minus the guy who you would argue was "just lucky" in 2012, and they added Rafael Soriano.  And based on less than 10% of the season, you're ready to declare doom.

So, I assume you think Heyward, Upton The Elder, and Uggla will bat below the Mendoza line this year?  And that Chris Johnson will lead MLB in batting average?
 
2013-04-17 05:43:24 PM  

chimp_ninja: So, I assume you think Heyward, Upton The Elder, and Uggla will bat below the Mendoza line this year?  And that Chris Johnson will lead MLB in batting average?


And the Mets will continue to think the ghost of Mike Piazza is in their current catcher.
 
2013-04-17 06:09:26 PM  

chimp_ninja: steamingpile: I said they were young, but even last year I said the bullpen was pitching above their normal ERAs which was true, now most are back to normal or worse.

Let's pretend for a moment that ERA is the best/only way to measure reliever quality.  Here's everyone who threw 25+ IP out of the bullpen for the Nationals in 2012:

Drew Storen: 2012: 2.37, Career: 2.98
Tyler Clippard: 2012: 3.72, Career: 3.17
Ryan Mattheus: 2012: 2.85, Career: 2.89
Sean Burnett: 2012: 2.38, Career (as reliever): 3.22
Mike Gonzalez: 2012: 3.03, Career: 2.99
Tom Gorzelanny: 2012 (as reliever): 2.90 , Career (as reliever):  3.19
Henry Rodriguez: 2012: 5.83, Career: 4.30

Wow.  What an amazingly anomalous year they had.

So, this year they have basically the same guys, minus the guy who you would argue was "just lucky" in 2012, and they added Rafael Soriano.  And based on less than 10% of the season, you're ready to declare doom.

So, I assume you think Heyward, Upton The Elder, and Uggla will bat below the Mendoza line this year?  And that Chris Johnson will lead MLB in batting average?


History dictates future actions.

Point is they over performed for their career and situation wise, now they may do better the rest of the year but wont be nearly as dominate as people think or expect. The braves had the best starting rotation for quite a few years and we see how well that worked out. I'm not declaring doom, it's worse to start and unless something changes fast they will be lucky to stay above the mets, did you not see the horrible pitching or are you just blind?
 
2013-04-17 09:23:27 PM  

steamingpile: Point is they over performed for their career


You can keep saying this, but there seems to be no record of it.  As shown above, five of the Nationals relievers were right around their career averages, one was significantly better, and one was significantly worse.  They actually got rid of the guy who overperformed his career numbers (the logical person to name for regression), and replaced him with a guy with better career numbers.

steamingpile: . I'm not declaring doom, it's worse to start and unless something changes fast they will be lucky to stay above the mets, did you not see the horrible pitching or are you just blind?


I know.  Rafael Soriano has a 6.00 ERA after six entire innings!  How will he ever recover?  That's never happened.  We're through the looking glass, people.  DOOOOOOOM.  METS ARE AUTOMATICALLY WORLD CHAMPIONS AND BRYCE HARPER HAS TO RETIRE AND ACTUALLY PLAY A HARP FULL-TIME.

steamingpile: History dictates future actions.


So it's safe to assume that Heyward, Upton The Elder, and Uggla will bat below the Mendoza line this year, and that Chris Johnson will lead MLB in batting average.  Because after 8% of a season, history dictates future actions.

Thanks for dropping another Steaming PileTM on a baseball thread.  It's hard to stay a running joke for years, but you give 110%.
 
2013-04-17 11:32:02 PM  

zarberg: And the Mets will continue to think the ghost of Mike Piazza is in their current catcher.


That one may actually be true.
 
2013-04-17 11:43:54 PM  

Joe_diGriz: zarberg: And the Mets will continue to think the ghost of Mike Piazza is in their current catcher.

That one may actually be true.


If I had to guess, I'm gonna say ~20 homers and ~.260 BA, which is going to make calling up D'arnaud that much harder, especially if he doesn't absolutely dominate AAA pitching.
 
2013-04-18 12:29:14 AM  

zarberg: Joe_diGriz: zarberg: And the Mets will continue to think the ghost of Mike Piazza is in their current catcher.

That one may actually be true.

If I had to guess, I'm gonna say ~20 homers and ~.260 BA, which is going to make calling up D'arnaud that much harder, especially if he doesn't absolutely dominate AAA pitching.


John Buck in the outfield is going to be the worst thing since Todd Hundley in the outfield.
 
2013-04-18 12:43:04 AM  

Dafatone: zarberg: Joe_diGriz: zarberg: And the Mets will continue to think the ghost of Mike Piazza is in their current catcher.

That one may actually be true.

If I had to guess, I'm gonna say ~20 homers and ~.260 BA, which is going to make calling up D'arnaud that much harder, especially if he doesn't absolutely dominate AAA pitching.

John Buck in the outfield is going to be the worst thing since Todd Hundley in the outfield.


Hundley was one of those who I knew was on 'roids before anyone was actually blamed.

/but he was superior defensively to Piazza.
//I met Piazza at a Rangers game that Winter.
///CSB
 
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