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(Slate)   So, it turns out the whole argument for austerity was based on an Excel spreadsheet error. That's not a mundane detail, Michael   (slate.com) divider line 275
    More: Dumbass, excel spreadsheet, Kenneth Rogoff, Vincent Reinhart, stunted growth  
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5948 clicks; posted to Politics » on 16 Apr 2013 at 2:35 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-04-16 01:10:14 PM
 
2013-04-16 01:16:37 PM
What makes you think it was an error?
 
2013-04-16 01:50:14 PM
Holy shiat, that's really bad. Word on this needs to spread.
 
2013-04-16 02:26:43 PM

make me some tea: Holy shiat, that's really bad. Word on this needs to spread.


We need Access to the rest of the data.
 
2013-04-16 02:27:35 PM

make me some tea: Holy shiat, that's really bad. Word on this needs to spread.


At least this means our financial Outlook needn't be so grim anymore...
 
2013-04-16 02:34:19 PM

jehovahs witness protection: We need Access to the rest of the data.


xanadian: At least this means our financial Outlook needn't be so grim anymore...


lulz
 
2013-04-16 02:34:43 PM
Was the "That's not a mundane detail, Michael " part suppose to make me read the headline in the voice of KITT?

Because it worked, bastard(ette)!
 
2013-04-16 02:35:27 PM
If I may make OneNote about this, it's that TFA is right, no one is going to be persuaded by this discovery.
 
2013-04-16 02:36:20 PM

I_Am_Weasel: Was the "That's not a mundane detail, Michael " part suppose to make me read the headline in the voice of KITT?

Because it worked, bastard(ette)!


I think you need another copy of the memo. Michael Bolton will get it for you.
 
2013-04-16 02:39:02 PM

GAT_00: What makes you think it was an error?


No, no. The exclusion of the data points that just happen to reverse your conclusions can happen to anyone.
 
2013-04-16 02:39:10 PM

xanadian: make me some tea: Holy shiat, that's really bad. Word on this needs to spread.

At least this means our financial Outlook needn't be so grim anymore...


You don't Paint a very prettty picture here....
 
2013-04-16 02:39:21 PM
Garbage in, garbage out.
 
2013-04-16 02:40:15 PM

make me some tea: jehovahs witness protection: We need Access to the rest of the data.

xanadian: At least this means our financial Outlook needn't be so grim anymore...


...Xbox.
 
2013-04-16 02:41:22 PM
wow... that's actually pretty funny.
 
2013-04-16 02:41:30 PM
Some in PowerPoint to failed austerity measures in Europe as proof that the argument doesn't work.
 
2013-04-16 02:41:49 PM

xanadian: make me some tea: Holy shiat, that's really bad. Word on this needs to spread.

At least this means our financial Outlook needn't be so grim anymore...


Word.
 
2013-04-16 02:42:01 PM
DNRTFA, was the spreadsheet the list of people they were going to hire and not hire for their economist positions?
 
2013-04-16 02:42:02 PM
Holy shiat that's not something you can go "oops sorry my bad" about at all.
 
2013-04-16 02:42:43 PM
Microsoft Office InfoPath 2007
 
2013-04-16 02:42:44 PM
So vote Austrian School.
 
2013-04-16 02:43:05 PM

xanadian: make me some tea: Holy shiat, that's really bad. Word on this needs to spread.

At least this means our financial Outlook needn't be so grim anymore...


Unfortunately, convincing those who have already integrated this poorly based financial policy into their worldview will be a significant Project.
 
2013-04-16 02:43:38 PM
What a way to remove the pro-austerity side's Power: Pointing out a simple mistake was the foundation of their entire approach.
 
2013-04-16 02:44:00 PM

make me some tea: Holy shiat, that's really bad. Word on this needs to spread.


Yeah, cutting spending during a recession wasn't just an obviously horrible idea to begin with.  The fact it contracted the economy in each country it was practiced wasn't enough.

And NOW we find out the push for it was due to an excel error.  WHAT MORONS ARE RUNNING THIS WORLD.
 
2013-04-16 02:44:12 PM
I'm just glad some intrepid Internet Explorer found this.
 
2013-04-16 02:44:28 PM

Whistling Kitty Chaser: Some in PowerPoint to failed austerity measures in Europe as proof that the argument doesn't work.


Lotus all point and laugh at these awful Microsoft puns.
 
2013-04-16 02:44:31 PM

Whistling Kitty Chaser: Some in PowerPoint to failed austerity measures in Europe as proof that the argument doesn't work.


bah.. you were way quicker on the Draw with that.
 
2013-04-16 02:44:34 PM
Well what the hell man, they move all the buttons around with every new version.
 
2013-04-16 02:44:35 PM

A Terrible Human: Holy shiat that's not something you can go "oops sorry my bad" about at all.


Doesn't matter to the believers.  They have already been convinced it is the way to go.
 
2013-04-16 02:45:56 PM
Laissez Faire capitialsm has been around forever.  Argument for austerity promoted by Hayek has been a staple of demand for almost 100 years.
 
2013-04-16 02:46:19 PM

GAT_00: What makes you think it was an error?


 By typing wrong, they accidentally left Denmark, Canada, Belgium, Austria, and Australia out of the average

After reading that, i'm 100% certain your right.
 
2013-04-16 02:46:22 PM
This is One Note that can't be overlooked
 
2013-04-16 02:46:26 PM
It'd be nice to have someone with actual power point out this mistake to those in government pushing austerity.
 
2013-04-16 02:46:38 PM
I really need a graphic to visiolize how stupid that is.
 
2013-04-16 02:46:49 PM

Dusk-You-n-Me: [pbs.twimg.com image 665x116]

Link


www.burningshadow.dk
 
2013-04-16 02:47:29 PM
So . . . the European 28 hour work week and 4-month vacation is back on?
 
2013-04-16 02:48:11 PM

Whistling Kitty Chaser: Some in PowerPoint to failed austerity measures in Europe as proof that the argument doesn't work.


Well, Bob's my uncle, I missed it by a few minutes...
 
2013-04-16 02:48:14 PM
God damn Tibor!
 
2013-04-16 02:48:15 PM
It doesn't matter.  The people pushing austerity are not basing their ideas on facts, history or data.


/Notepad.
 
2013-04-16 02:48:16 PM
And if you show'd this to someone who believes in austerity, it would just make them believe in austerity even more.
 
2013-04-16 02:49:02 PM
At least they didn't omit a comma and cost their company more than a million dollars.

/too obscure?
 
2013-04-16 02:49:27 PM

farkstorm: So . . . the European 28 hour work week and 4-month vacation is back on?


what's interesting in Denmark is they have VERY lax work hours, and they also have the highest life satisfaction in the world.
 
2013-04-16 02:49:39 PM
I don't expect this to make a difference to the austerity crowd. The fact that they were willing to turn the real world into a lab based on just one study means that they didn't care that much about evidence in the first place.
 
2013-04-16 02:49:46 PM
And yet, no matter if you club someone who believes in austerity with this fact until they are bloodied and bowed, they will not change their minds. In fact, they will believe in austerity even harder.
 
2013-04-16 02:50:21 PM

Hollie Maea: It doesn't matter.  The people pushing austerity are not basing their ideas on facts, history or data.


/Notepad.


That's what must be done if you want to say no to paid government workers
 
2013-04-16 02:51:38 PM
This will have a lot of unpleasant repercussions for the forSiebel future.
 
2013-04-16 02:51:49 PM

Dubya's_Coke_Dealer: And yet, no matter if you club someone who believes in austerity with this fact until they are bloodied and bowed, they will not change their minds. In fact, they will believe in austerity even harder.


Three cheers for the backfire effect!
 
2013-04-16 02:51:50 PM
This is what happens when you get an economics degree out of a cereal box.
 
2013-04-16 02:51:54 PM
By typing wrong, they "accidentally" left Denmark, Canada, Belgium, Austria, and Australia out of the average.

Fixed.
 
2013-04-16 02:52:05 PM

GAT_00: What makes you think it was an error?


You're right -- it might not be.  If you follow the link in TFA, there's a more detailed analysis of the errors that Reinhardt and Rogoff made:  Link

Selective Exclusions.Reinhart-Rogoff use 1946-2009 as their period, with the main difference among countries being their starting year. In their data set, there are 110 years of data available for countries that have a debt/GDP over 90 percent, but they only use 96 of those years. The paper didn't disclose which years they excluded or why.

Herndon-Ash-Pollin find that they exclude Australia (1946-1950), New Zealand (1946-1949), and Canada (1946-1950). This has consequences, as these countries have high-debt  and solid growth. Canada had debt-to-GDP over 90 percent during this period and 3 percent growth. New Zealand had a debt/GDP over 90 percent from 1946-1951. If you use the average growth rate across all those years it is 2.58 percent. If you only use the last year, as Reinhart-Rogoff does, it has a growth rate of -7.6 percent. That's a big difference, especially considering how they weigh the countries.
 
2013-04-16 02:52:26 PM
I was never really clear on the "argument" for austerity anyway.

1) government in debt
2) [magic happens]
3) bad economy

So therefore

1) government pays down debt
2) [magic happens]
3) good economy

Lots of gaps here.
 
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