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    More: PSA, Reading University, flights, European Union Geosciences  
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26377 clicks; posted to Main » on 08 Apr 2013 at 5:47 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-04-08 06:39:33 PM
Wasn't the HOTY one year:〰〰〰/)〰〰\0/
Or something like that?
 
2013-04-08 06:40:12 PM

GAT_00: It seems like they're predicting a permanent jet streak over the North Atlantic, or they are predicting that there will be constant CAPE at 40,000 feet, which seems even harder to predict.


Well, there already are jet streams continuously over the North Atlantic. They're just predicting that they'll become faster, which means bigger, which means more CAT over a larger area. This would happen if there's a greater temperature (and therefore density) difference between two different air masses, which seems to be the trend with climate change.

CAPE doesn't have anything to do with it because the temperature stops dropping when you get to the tropopause (where the jet streams are). Convection will cease.
 
2013-04-08 06:47:58 PM

costermonger: GAT_00: It seems like they're predicting a permanent jet streak over the North Atlantic, or they are predicting that there will be constant CAPE at 40,000 feet, which seems even harder to predict.

Well, there already are jet streams continuously over the North Atlantic. They're just predicting that they'll become faster, which means bigger, which means more CAT over a larger area. This would happen if there's a greater temperature (and therefore density) difference between two different air masses, which seems to be the trend with climate change.

CAPE doesn't have anything to do with it because the temperature stops dropping when you get to the tropopause (where the jet streams are). Convection will cease.


Well sure, but they still move.  I can't imagine a stationary jet streak forming either, but their article isn't fully available, so I can't read what they actually measured, and as I noted before, I'm not well versed in turbulence metrics.

I wonder if the stalling Rossby waves plays into this at all too.
 
2013-04-08 06:55:50 PM
On the plus side, some contributing factors to global warming might be self-limiting. More turbulence might discourage people from flying, which means less CO2. More wind could mean more wind mills, global dimming from air pollution and increased cloud cover has been off-setting warming for decades.

To date the things we have done to fight climate change most effectively have all been accidental, like banning ozone-depleting gases and reforesting much of North America after clearing way too much marginal farmland in the XIXth and early XXth century.

Also, the biggest hold-ups to atmospheric warming are 1) absorption of half of the global warming gases and most of the heat by the oceans, which have been discovered to be warming to a depth of 700 meters rather than 100 (bad news for sea life) and 2) the unpredicable effects of ice, cloud cover, and water generally. Also, recent studies suggest that the increasing extent of ice pack in Antarctica is the result of melt water flowing in the ocean behind increased output of icebergs and thus cooling the surface.

We've lucked out thus far, but common sense tells you that when you put more energy into a system, it becomes more chaotic. Turbulence is one common sense measure of climate change that we can see and feel, unlike more severe winters due to the jet stream becoming "locked" in place, causing extreme cold and snowfall in some places while other places experience record breaking heat, drought or brushfires.
 
2013-04-08 06:56:29 PM
Airline Corporate Bigwig: We need MOAR money or we can't afford our Executive Bonuses!

Corporate Science Shill: We can always blame it on Climate Change, and claim it COSTS fuel to avoid it?

Airline Corporate Bigwig: BRILLIANT!
 
2013-04-08 07:06:07 PM
A friend of mine was on one of these bumpier flights. All the kids under 10 were screaming & giggling with excitement.

So this could be bad...or even worse, depending how you view it.
 
2013-04-08 07:14:18 PM
article is absolute bullshiat
headline is awesome
 
2013-04-08 07:24:09 PM

meat0918: netgamer7k: [i.imgur.com image 638x423]

Chemtrails.

Funnily enough, all those jets trails might actually provide a cooling effect, as a small portion of the solar radiance is reflected back into space.  Of course, they also reflect rising heat back towards Earth, so it's a bit of a wash.


Analysis for the week of 9/11/01 showed they probably have a small cooling effect.
 
2013-04-08 07:27:17 PM

The_Sponge: mjjt: MaudlinMutantMollusk: Fasten you seatbelts....
[24.media.tumblr.com image 450x300]

why?

[i50.tinypic.com image 550x777]


ZOMG WHAT IS HER NAME?!


Tanya Song.

/big fan
 
2013-04-08 07:36:47 PM

Almost Everybody Poops: The_Sponge: mjjt: MaudlinMutantMollusk: Fasten you seatbelts....
[24.media.tumblr.com image 450x300]

why?

[i50.tinypic.com image 550x777]


ZOMG WHAT IS HER NAME?!

Tanya Song.

/big fan


Noted.
 
2013-04-08 07:40:02 PM

a61sun: Airline Corporate Bigwig: We need MOAR money or we can't afford our Executive Bonuses!

Corporate Science Shill: We can always blame it on Climate Change, and claim it COSTS fuel to avoid it?

Airline Corporate Bigwig: BRILLIANT!


Gov't Funded Scientist: I have to worry about competing for money if I work on a theory that can be proven or falsified within my lifetime.  It doesn't help that my actual area of expertise is barely tangentially related.

Liberal Politician: Hey, you're a Doctor of Social...Sciences!  Close enough.  If we implement a carbon tax accounting for the anticipated costs of flying around turbulence, MOAR MONEY!!

Gov't Funded Scientist: BRILLIANT!

See how that works?
 
2013-04-08 07:43:25 PM
www.eonline.com

"I'm in control!"

/"Another screwdriver, sugartits!"
 
2013-04-08 07:48:51 PM
I was on a flight once where we hit a pocket of turbulence just as I was opening the bathroom door. I went flying out of the bathroom and smacked into the flight attendant.

/CSB
 
2013-04-08 07:52:39 PM

rynthetyn: I was on a flight once where we hit a pocket of turbulence just as I was opening the bathroom door. I went flying out of the bathroom and smacked into the flight attendant.

/CSB


Does that mean you're part of the mile high club now?
 
2013-04-08 08:01:54 PM
Aww, rich people problems.

When was the last time you flew overseas, not including business trips?  Your honeymoon 14 years ago?
 
2013-04-08 08:02:52 PM
collider.com

Flight Attendant: You know, if you do try and get some sleep, the flight will go a lot faster.

Jack Ryan: I can never sleep on a plane. Turbulence.

Flight Attendant: Pardon?

Jack Ryan: Turbulence. Solar radiation heats the Earth's crust, warm air rises, cold air descends - turbulence. I, I don't like that.

Flight Attendant: Oh. Well, try to get some sleep anyway.

/First thing I thought of.
 
2013-04-08 08:03:10 PM

Prussian_Roulette: a61sun: Airline Corporate Bigwig: We need MOAR money or we can't afford our Executive Bonuses!

Corporate Science Shill: We can always blame it on Climate Change, and claim it COSTS fuel to avoid it?

Airline Corporate Bigwig: BRILLIANT!

Gov't Funded Scientist: I have to worry about competing for money if I work on a theory that can be proven or falsified within my lifetime.  It doesn't help that my actual area of expertise is barely tangentially related.

Liberal Politician: Hey, you're a Doctor of Social...Sciences!  Close enough.  If we implement a carbon tax accounting for the anticipated costs of flying around turbulence, MOAR MONEY!!

Gov't Funded Scientist: BRILLIANT!

See how that works?


I didn't know you could still get LSD.
 
2013-04-08 08:03:55 PM

Mambo Bananapatch: Prussian_Roulette: a61sun: Airline Corporate Bigwig: We need MOAR money or we can't afford our Executive Bonuses!

Corporate Science Shill: We can always blame it on Climate Change, and claim it COSTS fuel to avoid it?

Airline Corporate Bigwig: BRILLIANT!

Gov't Funded Scientist: I have to worry about competing for money if I work on a theory that can be proven or falsified within my lifetime.  It doesn't help that my actual area of expertise is barely tangentially related.

Liberal Politician: Hey, you're a Doctor of Social...Sciences!  Close enough.  If we implement a carbon tax accounting for the anticipated costs of flying around turbulence, MOAR MONEY!!

Gov't Funded Scientist: BRILLIANT!

See how that works?

I didn't know you could still get LSD.


Yikes! Sorry, responding to wrong comment.
 
2013-04-08 08:05:29 PM

poot_rootbeer: Aww, rich people problems.

When was the last time you flew overseas, not including business trips?  Your honeymoon 14 years ago?


Last summer. I usually make it out of the US every couple of years.
 
2013-04-08 08:13:31 PM

rynthetyn: /CSBS


FTFY
 
2013-04-08 08:20:36 PM

GAT_00: I'm not sure how they can really predict this accurately.  Even modern supercomputers are unable to do really good climate modeling, the variables are simply too complex.


Needs citation.
 
2013-04-08 08:25:51 PM

GAT_00: Well sure, but they still move.  I can't imagine a stationary jet streak forming either, but their article isn't fully available, so I can't read what they actually measured, and as I noted before, I'm not well versed in turbulence metrics.I wonder if the stalling Rossby waves plays into this at all too.


They don't need to be stationary, or have a larger streak length, or any other altered characteristic beside higher average velocity. If they're faster, they're bigger, and the area in which they create turbulence is greater. They wouldn't be unavoidable (you wouldn't be sitting there in turbulence all the way from NYC to London every flight), but if they're bigger there's just no way you could avoid spending more time getting smacked around on average.

I have a tenuous grasp on all the effects of the changing Rossby waves, but I would expect they are involved in anything that changes the characteristics of jet streams.
 
2013-04-08 08:35:38 PM

vossiewulf: As an aside, anyone who takes off their seat belt for any purpose other than going to the bathroom on a flight is a dumbass. I just had one recently where I was tail end Charlie in a regional jet which got a TCAS warning to descend to avoid collision, which they did correctly by pitching that puppy hard into a dive. With me way behind the CG, I would bounced off the ceiling had I not been wearing the belt.


Top hole! Bally Jerry pranged his kite right in the how's your father. Hairy blighter, dicky-birdied, feathered back on his Sammy, took a waspy, flipped over on his Betty Harper's and caught his can in the Bertie.

/nothing is obscure on Fark.
 
2013-04-08 08:38:26 PM

Almost Everybody Poops: The_Sponge: mjjt: MaudlinMutantMollusk: Fasten you seatbelts....
[24.media.tumblr.com image 450x300]

why?

[i50.tinypic.com image 550x777]


ZOMG WHAT IS HER NAME?!

Tanya Song.

/big fan



Gracias.
 
2013-04-08 08:46:44 PM

costermonger: GAT_00: Well sure, but they still move.  I can't imagine a stationary jet streak forming either, but their article isn't fully available, so I can't read what they actually measured, and as I noted before, I'm not well versed in turbulence metrics.I wonder if the stalling Rossby waves plays into this at all too.

They don't need to be stationary, or have a larger streak length, or any other altered characteristic beside higher average velocity. If they're faster, they're bigger, and the area in which they create turbulence is greater. They wouldn't be unavoidable (you wouldn't be sitting there in turbulence all the way from NYC to London every flight), but if they're bigger there's just no way you could avoid spending more time getting smacked around on average.

I have a tenuous grasp on all the effects of the changing Rossby waves, but I would expect they are involved in anything that changes the characteristics of jet streams.


The standing Rossby waves are largely responsible for the massive heat waves and cold snaps we've seen in the last few years. They normally oscillate around the Earth, but as of late, they've been becoming stationary. If you're in an arch or dip, it let's the relevant air just stand over you.
 
2013-04-08 08:51:18 PM

Diagonal: GAT_00: I'm not sure how they can really predict this accurately.  Even modern supercomputers are unable to do really good climate modeling, the variables are simply too complex.

Needs citation.


If someone said "human beings can't fly by flapping their arms" would you request a cite?

/also, gat_00, not that variables themselves are complex, is that model is complex due to huge number of variables
 
2013-04-08 09:21:44 PM
Lemme help.

@ @ @ @ 〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰〰* * *
 
2013-04-08 09:29:15 PM
I was in turbulence so bad once that the flight attendants were ordered to buckle up. Bumps so violent that people were screaming. I had to remind myself that they stress-test the Fark out of these things and the wings really can bend that much.
 
2013-04-08 09:47:48 PM

SpiderQueenDemon: /nothing is obscure on Fark.


Sorry old man, we don't understand your banter.
 
2013-04-08 09:54:58 PM

Nogrhi: Almost Everybody Poops: The_Sponge: mjjt: MaudlinMutantMollusk: Fasten you seatbelts....
[24.media.tumblr.com image 450x300]

why?

[i50.tinypic.com image 550x777]


ZOMG WHAT IS HER NAME?!

Tanya Song.

/big fan

Noted.


Actually it's Anna Song

Link definitely nsfw
 
2013-04-08 10:08:30 PM

ZAZ: My browser shows a row of boxes

+---+
| ∃ 0|
| ∃ 0|
+---+

followed by a jet icon.


$ gvim ~/Unicode-6.1/UnicodeData.txt
/^3030
3030;WAVY DASH;Pd;0;ON;;;;;N;;;;;


Oddly enough, the  ✈ character worked just fine.  (It's U+2708 AIRPLANE.) I suppose plain old U+007E TILDE would have worked:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ✈

though some might have seen it off-center.
 
2013-04-08 10:14:34 PM
 could now face
 suggests that
could also
It's certainly plausible
 it could of course
supercomputer to simulate likely changes
evidence to suggest
could be
 could happen
modelling suggested
likely to
 most likely
probability of
are thought to be


Oh, well, that's settled, then.
 
2013-04-08 10:35:22 PM

Ambitwistor: By the way, they're not calculating CAPE. They calculate "Ellrod's turbulence index" and 20 other turbulence metrics, none of which are CAPE.


You're bringing elves into this?
 
2013-04-08 10:42:55 PM

Diagonal: GAT_00: I'm not sure how they can really predict this accurately.  Even modern supercomputers are unable to do really good climate modeling, the variables are simply too complex.

Needs citation.


a uniform increase of 2° throughout the atmosphere will REDUCE the power of upwelling heat from the ground generated by a fixed heat input.

an article last year pointed out "global head-up-assism" would reduce turbulence
 
2013-04-08 10:44:09 PM
Bacon plane?

Bacon plane.
 
2013-04-08 10:49:03 PM

revrendjim: I was in turbulence so bad once that the flight attendants were ordered to buckle up. Bumps so violent that people were screaming. I had to remind myself that they stress-test the Fark out of these things and the wings really can bend that much.


A buddy of mine texted me a little oven an hour ago that his flight out of Denver hit turbulence so bad on climbout that the aircraft depressurized and they had to return to the airport. Said it was the worst turbulence he'd ever felt. Rolled equipment while they were landing.
 
2013-04-08 11:00:13 PM

gameshowhost: Diagonal: GAT_00: I'm not sure how they can really predict this accurately.  Even modern supercomputers are unable to do really good climate modeling, the variables are simply too complex.

Needs citation.

If someone said "human beings can't fly by flapping their arms" would you request a cite?

/also, gat_00, not that variables themselves are complex, is that model is complex due to huge number of variables


The variables are somewhat complex.  Meteorology is after all chaos theory in practice when it comes to modeling.  In the models tend not to be really all that complicated, because that's the only way the computers can handle them with reasonable computation times.  If we tried doing really accurate meteorology modeling, at small scale, I can't even imagine how long it would take.
 
2013-04-08 11:16:49 PM

revrendjim: I was in turbulence so bad once that the flight attendants were ordered to buckle up. Bumps so violent that people were screaming. I had to remind myself that they stress-test the Fark out of these things and the wings really can bend that much.


You ever seen how the wings flap on a C-130? They look like geese in a high wind. So I"m sure commercial airliners are at least as trustworthy.
 
2013-04-09 12:08:08 AM

Gyrfalcon: You ever seen how the wings flap on a C-130? They look like geese in a high wind. So I"m sure commercial airliners are at least as trustworthy.


I remember video of them testing the 747 wing, the wingtip deflected up over 30 feet before it broke.
 
2013-04-09 12:38:11 AM
I wasn't getting the little airplane character. I thought it was another story about sperm donation.
 
2013-04-09 12:39:35 AM

untaken_name:  could now face
 suggests that
could also
It's certainly plausible
 it could of course
supercomputer to simulate likely changes
evidence to suggest
could be
 could happen
modelling suggested
likely to
 most likely
probability of
are thought to be


Oh, well, that's settled, then.


Worst haiku ever.
 
2013-04-09 01:02:12 AM

Charlie Freak: revrendjim: I was in turbulence so bad once that the flight attendants were ordered to buckle up. Bumps so violent that people were screaming. I had to remind myself that they stress-test the Fark out of these things and the wings really can bend that much.

A buddy of mine texted me a little oven an hour ago that his flight out of Denver hit turbulence so bad on climbout that the aircraft depressurized and they had to return to the airport. Said it was the worst turbulence he'd ever felt. Rolled equipment while they were landing.


That's pretty impressive, a bump must have knocked open something and that really shouldn't be able to happen.
 
2013-04-09 02:21:19 AM

robodog: meat0918: netgamer7k: [i.imgur.com image 638x423]

Chemtrails.

Funnily enough, all those jets trails might actually provide a cooling effect, as a small portion of the solar radiance is reflected back into space.  Of course, they also reflect rising heat back towards Earth, so it's a bit of a wash.

Analysis for the week of 9/11/01 showed they probably have a small cooling effect.


Perhaps for a given constant CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, like from one wee to the next.  But on the whole, over years, their net effect would be warming due to the CO2 they release into the atmosphere.

/Yes, I know aviation is a small fraction of total global CO2 output.  Just making a temporal point.
 
2013-04-09 02:31:42 AM

mjjt: MaudlinMutantMollusk: Fasten you seatbelts....
[24.media.tumblr.com image 450x300]

why?

[i50.tinypic.com image 550x777]


♥  Ѿ
 
2013-04-09 03:06:46 AM

revrendjim: I was in turbulence so bad once that the flight attendants were ordered to buckle up. Bumps so violent that people were screaming. I had to remind myself that they stress-test the Fark out of these things and the wings really can bend that much.


Best thing you can do is stay calm, keep a level head, and be prepared to be a leader to those that need it if sh*t really hits the fan.
 
2013-04-09 03:18:05 AM
Your tax dollars at work, ladies and gentlemen
 
2013-04-09 04:24:36 AM

sendtodave: mjjt: MaudlinMutantMollusk: Fasten you seatbelts....
[24.media.tumblr.com image 450x300]

why?

[i50.tinypic.com image 550x777]

♥  Ѿ


LOL I didn't know you cd do that here

/my continuing education
 
2013-04-09 09:03:08 AM
So, it's going to be just like every other Air France flight then
 
2013-04-09 11:08:07 AM

Prussian_Roulette: a61sun: Airline Corporate Bigwig: We need MOAR money or we can't afford our Executive Bonuses!

Corporate Science Shill: We can always blame it on Climate Change, and claim it COSTS fuel to avoid it?

Airline Corporate Bigwig: BRILLIANT!

Gov't Funded Scientist: I have to worry about competing for money if I work on a theory that can be proven or falsified within my lifetime.  It doesn't help that my actual area of expertise is barely tangentially related.

Liberal Politician: Hey, you're a Doctor of Social...Sciences!  Close enough.  If we implement a carbon tax accounting for the anticipated costs of flying around turbulence, MOAR MONEY!!

Gov't Funded Scientist: BRILLIANT!

See how that works?


Gee, look who doesn't know how science or science funding works.
 
2013-04-09 02:34:53 PM
✈  ┃┃
 
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