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(ESPN)   If you look at ESPN's MLB player hitting statistics from 2012, the column furthest to the right is the Sabermetrics stat WAR (wins above replacement). But for the 2013 season, WHAR WAR?   (espn.go.com) divider line 141
    More: Strange, ESPN, wars, sabermetrics, Major League Baseball, Adrian Beltre, Ben Zobrist, Edwin Encarnacion, statistics  
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1196 clicks; posted to Sports » on 08 Apr 2013 at 10:54 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-04-08 10:43:29 AM
I'm guessing it's the same reason why Baseball-reference doesn't yet display 2013 WAR numbers on their player pages.  The baseline for 'replacement player' gets adjusted each year, and no reliable data exist yet for parks that have made significant changes (Citi and Safeco).

See also:
Vinny Castilla was roughly replacement level (+0.5 offensive WAR) when hitting .275/.331/.478 with 33 HR in 1999 Coors.
Andre Ethier was a nice (+3.3 offensive WAR) offensive boost to the Dodgers in 2012, hitting .284/.351/.460 with 20 HR.
All-Name-All-Star Heinie Groh was the best hitter in the NL (+5.3 offensive WAR) in 1919, hitting .310/.392/.431 with a career-high 5 HR, in some gigantic stadium you've never heard of.
 
2013-04-08 10:54:01 AM
I'm pretty sure everyone is still at or near 0.0 on WAR.  Assuming Trout matched his WAR from last year, he'd only have a WAR of 0.4 right now.  Cano at 0.3.

It's pretty useless information.
 
2013-04-08 11:12:51 AM
This would be even funnier if it had been greenlit last week, ya know, before they had any of the "W"s in "WAR"
 
2013-04-08 11:12:56 AM
www.therichest.org

Here war.
 
2013-04-08 11:22:50 AM

GAT_00: I'm pretty sure everyone is still at or near 0.0 on WAR.  Assuming Trout matched his WAR from last year, he'd only have a WAR of 0.4 right now.  Cano at 0.3.  It's pretty useless information.


Fangraphs has Chris Davis at +0.6 despite a sizable and well-deserved deduction for defense.  All he needs to do is keep slugging 1.136, and he'll have a heck of a year!
 
2013-04-08 11:30:09 AM
It's a tad early.
 
2013-04-08 11:35:21 AM

chimp_ninja: Vinny Castilla was roughly replacement level (+0.5 offensive WAR) when hitting .275/.331/.478 with 33 HR in 1999 Coors.


How about Dante Bichette's 1999 season? Fangraphs calls it the best-worst season of all-time. They gave him -2.1 WAR despite hitting .298/34/133 because of that ridiculous stadium and his atrocious defense.
 
2013-04-08 11:36:00 AM
Meh, what is it good for?

/GOOD GAWD Y'ALL!
 
2013-04-08 11:46:39 AM
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Trout have one of the best WARs in MLB history last year?

I heard top 10. I could easily look this up, but I'd rather someone from Detroit get all pissy about it.

/Trout should've won and you all know it
 
2013-04-08 11:48:51 AM

homarjr: Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Trout have one of the best WARs in MLB history last year?

I heard top 10. I could easily look this up, but I'd rather someone from Detroit get all pissy about it.

/Trout should've won and you all know it


I agree Trout should have won, but the award is "Most Valuable Player" - when it gets changed to "Player with the best offensive metrics" you and I can start arguing with everyone from Detroit.
 
2013-04-08 11:57:29 AM

zarberg: I agree Trout should have won, but the award is "Most Valuable Player" - when it gets changed to "Player with the best offensive metrics" you and I can start arguing with everyone from Detroit.


To be fair, Trout's case is basically: Mildly better hitter, excellent defender, plays a premier position, and it probably the best baserunner in baseball until Billy Hamilton gets called up.  His offensive metrics are the tip of the iceberg.

Cabrera's case is basically:
1) I played on an inferior team, but thanks to being in the AL central, our 88 wins puts us in the playoffs, whereas the Angels' 89 wins leaves them on the golf course.
2) I had more RBI than a guy who hit leadoff every single time he played.
 
2013-04-08 12:02:13 PM

homarjr: Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Trout have one of the best WARs in MLB history last year?

I heard top 10. I could easily look this up, but I'd rather someone from Detroit get all pissy about it.

/Trout should've won and you all know it


I was looking back through the years.  ESPN had Trout at 10.7 last year.  Bonds was in the 11's during his 70-HR seasons.  I think Pedro Martinez got in the 12's his 20-4 season.  Now, if you want to talk about non-PED-assisted, then you have to cross off those Bonds seasons.  Pujols, ARod and Sosa also made double-digits.
 
2013-04-08 12:03:39 PM

GAT_00: I'm pretty sure everyone is still at or near 0.0 on WAR.  Assuming Trout matched his WAR from last year, he'd only have a WAR of 0.4 right now.  Cano at 0.3.

It's pretty useless information.


MLB.com has the elimination number under the standing sections.  Elimination number is like a "magic number" in reverse.

Right now, Pittsburgh will be eliminated from winning the division by a combination of 154 wins by Cincinnati and loses by Pittsburgh.
 
2013-04-08 12:04:22 PM
Todd Helton had a WAR of 0.0 ... so if you want to see what a NL replacement play looks like .. there you go.

See, I think for WAR then should find the biggest name that is at 0.0 and change the name based on that. So, it 2012 it was WAR but: WATODDHELTON.
 
2013-04-08 12:05:01 PM
Baseball Reference.com's highest single-season WARs of all time

Highest in the modern era is Dwight Gooden's 1985 season.
 
2013-04-08 12:08:00 PM

SlothB77: homarjr: Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Trout have one of the best WARs in MLB history last year?

I heard top 10. I could easily look this up, but I'd rather someone from Detroit get all pissy about it.

/Trout should've won and you all know it

I was looking back through the years.  ESPN had Trout at 10.7 last year.  Bonds was in the 11's during his 70-HR seasons.  I think Pedro Martinez got in the 12's his 20-4 season.  Now, if you want to talk about non-PED-assisted, then you have to cross off those Bonds seasons.  Pujols, ARod and Sosa also made double-digits.


I will only cross off "non-PED-assisted" players if you cross off Babe Ruth altogether for never playing against black people.

/every era has a problem
 
2013-04-08 12:09:24 PM
By the way, how long has ESPN had the Sabermetrics tab on their baseball player stats page?  I don't remember seeing it last year.  Kudos to them for providing this information.  Yahoo! Sports doesn't have it.  CNN/SI doesn't have it.
 
2013-04-08 12:14:06 PM
You know people, I really had work to do today. But, no, now I have to post in both a WAR thread AND a Pete Rose thread. Great.

chimp_ninja: Cabrera's case is basically:


You forgot "He didn't make a lot of errors, so that automatically means he's a good fielder."

SlothB77: By the way, how long has ESPN had the Sabermetrics tab on their baseball player stats page?


Couple of years. I still don't understand why the first thing is batting average, though.
 
2013-04-08 12:25:28 PM

DeWayne Mann: Couple of years. I still don't understand why the first thing is batting average, though.


they probably put that in there so everyone else didn't think they were losing their marbles.  Kind of like a 'You Are Here' arrow on a map.  Yes, the RC27 of 12.50 is for the same Ben Zobrist that is batting .429.  That funny looking number for that funny looking stat you've never seen before is correct and means something.
 
2013-04-08 12:27:33 PM
i285.photobucket.com
 
2013-04-08 12:29:45 PM

DeWayne Mann: You know people, I really had work to do today. But, no, now I have to post in both a WAR thread AND a Pete Rose thread. Great.

chimp_ninja: Cabrera's case is basically:

You forgot "He didn't make a lot of errors, so that automatically means he's a good fielder."

SlothB77: By the way, how long has ESPN had the Sabermetrics tab on their baseball player stats page?

Couple of years. <b>I still don't understand why the first thing is batting average, though.</b>


I'm sure we could just throw it on the pile of "thing you don't know".
 
2013-04-08 12:32:17 PM

SlothB77: DeWayne Mann: Couple of years. I still don't understand why the first thing is batting average, though.

they probably put that in there so everyone else didn't think they were losing their marbles.  Kind of like a 'You Are Here' arrow on a map.  Yes, the RC27 of 12.50 is for the same Ben Zobrist that is batting .429.  That funny looking number for that funny looking stat you've never seen before is correct and means something.


They could at LEAST do OBP.

JohnnyCanuck: I'm sure we could just throw it on the pile of "thing you don't know".


I like how you think this is an insult.
 
2013-04-08 12:33:15 PM

SlothB77: By the way, how long has ESPN had the Sabermetrics tab on their baseball player stats page?  I don't remember seeing it last year.  Kudos to them for providing this information.  Yahoo! Sports doesn't have it.  CNN/SI doesn't have it.


I really want to see them add shutdowns/meltdowns.

For those not aware, that's a Fangraphs stat. Shutdowns and meltdowns are based on the team's win probability when a reliever enters a game. If when they leave the probability has risen by at least 6%, they get a shutdown. If it's fallen by 6%, they get a meltdown. Why 6%? That's the point at which a shutdown is about as valuable as a save. They're handed out as often; just that more than one pitcher can get one per game and it gives the middle relievers something to shoot for. (Meltdowns are not as common, though they happen, even to good pitchers. Mariano Rivera leads all-time with 547 shutdowns, but he also has 113 meltdowns. Kent Tekulve has the most meltdowns with 226, measured against 362 shutdowns.)

In addition, shutdowns devalue the gimme save. You know the one. The time when the team's three runs up in the 9th with 6-7-8 coming up and the closer struts out to some generic heavy-metal rock before doing what the BP coach could probably have done. If the win probability is already above 94%, the 6% you need to gain to get a shutdown simply isn't there. Though you can get a meltdown if you somehow implode enough to lose the game or get yanked with the outcome suddenly in danger thanks to you.

The tops in shutdowns last season:
47- Jim Johnson, Orioles (3 meltdowns)
41- Aroldis Chapman, Reds (6 meltdowns)
37- Craig Kimbrel, Braves (4 meltdowns)
37- Vinnie Pestano, Indians (6 meltdowns)
37- Grant Balfour, Athletics (7 meltdowns)
37- Ryan Cook, Athletics (7 meltdowns)

Tops in meltdowns:
19- Matt Belisle, Rockies (30 shutdowns)
17- Phil Coke, Tigers (14 shutdowns)
17- Nate Jones, White Sox (18 shutdowns)
17- Boone Logan, Yankees (19 shutdowns)
16- Jeremy Affeldt, Giants (18 shutdowns)
16- Rex Brothers, Rockies (24 shutdowns)

At this stage of the season, three people have three meltdowns each: Chad Durbin of the Phillies, and Burke Badenhop and John Axford of the Brewers. Aroldis Chapman is alone in the lead with four shutdowns.
 
2013-04-08 12:38:29 PM

DeWayne Mann: SlothB77: DeWayne Mann: Couple of years. I still don't understand why the first thing is batting average, though.

they probably put that in there so everyone else didn't think they were losing their marbles.  Kind of like a 'You Are Here' arrow on a map.  Yes, the RC27 of 12.50 is for the same Ben Zobrist that is batting .429.  That funny looking number for that funny looking stat you've never seen before is correct and means something.

They could at LEAST do OBP.

JohnnyCanuck: I'm sure we could just throw it on the pile of "thing you don't know".

I like how you think this is an insult.



I was wavering between that and "Things you don't understand". Both would be apt...but I stand by my choice.
 
2013-04-08 12:48:59 PM

JohnnyCanuck: I was wavering between that and "Things you don't understand". Both would be apt...but I stand by my choice.


"He who knows most, knows best how little he knows."
 
2013-04-08 12:51:17 PM

Gosling: SlothB77: By the way, how long has ESPN had the Sabermetrics tab on their baseball player stats page?  I don't remember seeing it last year.  Kudos to them for providing this information.  Yahoo! Sports doesn't have it.  CNN/SI doesn't have it.

I really want to see them add shutdowns/meltdowns.

For those not aware, that's a Fangraphs stat. Shutdowns and meltdowns are based on the team's win probability when a reliever enters a game. If when they leave the probability has risen by at least 6%, they get a shutdown. If it's fallen by 6%, they get a meltdown. Why 6%? That's the point at which a shutdown is about as valuable as a save. They're handed out as often; just that more than one pitcher can get one per game and it gives the middle relievers something to shoot for. (Meltdowns are not as common, though they happen, even to good pitchers. Mariano Rivera leads all-time with 547 shutdowns, but he also has 113 meltdowns. Kent Tekulve has the most meltdowns with 226, measured against 362 shutdowns.)

In addition, shutdowns devalue the gimme save. You know the one. The time when the team's three runs up in the 9th with 6-7-8 coming up and the closer struts out to some generic heavy-metal rock before doing what the BP coach could probably have done. If the win probability is already above 94%, the 6% you need to gain to get a shutdown simply isn't there. Though you can get a meltdown if you somehow implode enough to lose the game or get yanked with the outcome suddenly in danger thanks to you.

The tops in shutdowns last season:
47- Jim Johnson, Orioles (3 meltdowns)
41- Aroldis Chapman, Reds (6 meltdowns)
37- Craig Kimbrel, Braves (4 meltdowns)
37- Vinnie Pestano, Indians (6 meltdowns)
37- Grant Balfour, Athletics (7 meltdowns)
37- Ryan Cook, Athletics (7 meltdowns)

Tops in meltdowns:
19- Matt Belisle, Rockies (30 shutdowns)
17- Phil Coke, Tigers (14 shutdowns)
17- Nate Jones, White Sox (18 shutdowns)
17- Boone Logan, Yankees (19 shutdowns)
16- Jeremy Affeldt, Giants (18 shutdowns)
16- Rex Brothers, Rockies (24 shutdowns)

At this stage of the season, three people have three meltdowns each: Chad Durbin of the Phillies, and Burke Badenhop and John Axford of the Brewers. Aroldis Chapman is alone in the lead with four shutdowns.


Thanks, that was cool. Now if people would stop using holds as a stat.... And I do kind of like inherited runners stranded. To me the coolest thing is to see your best reliever go in during the six, bases loaded and no outs and strand everybody. Some of the stat is bs luck but you can see trends of who steps up their game or who is "built" for that situation
 
2013-04-08 01:00:04 PM

GAT_00: I'm pretty sure everyone is still at or near 0.0 on WAR.  Assuming Trout matched his WAR from last year, he'd only have a WAR of 0.4 right now.  Cano at 0.3.

It's pretty useless information.


encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com

War, huh, yeah. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing!

dallylamma: Meh, what is it good for?

/GOOD GAWD Y'ALL!


/dammit; still posting mine
 
2013-04-08 01:04:16 PM
This is why baseball sucks. Because of people who actually follow and care about worthless made-up statistics like this.
 
2013-04-08 01:04:53 PM

skrame: GAT_00: I'm pretty sure everyone is still at or near 0.0 on WAR.  Assuming Trout matched his WAR from last year, he'd only have a WAR of 0.4 right now.  Cano at 0.3.

It's pretty useless information.

[encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com image 344x146]

War, huh, yeah. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing!

dallylamma: Meh, what is it good for?

/GOOD GAWD Y'ALL!

/dammit; still posting mine


DON'T YOU NEVER TOUCH A BLACK MAN'S RADIO!
 
2013-04-08 01:11:17 PM

doubled99: This is why baseball sucks. Because of people who actually follow and care about worthless made-up statistics like this.


I would've gone with "This is the reason baseball sucks - the math behind the sport is actually far more interesting than the game itself."
 
2013-04-08 01:12:21 PM

Gosling: Kent Tekulve


Wow. There's a guy I haven't thought of in YEARS. The definition of "that dude who can just eat innings, so we'll keep him around."
 
2013-04-08 01:14:22 PM

chimp_ninja: zarberg: I agree Trout should have won, but the award is "Most Valuable Player" - when it gets changed to "Player with the best offensive metrics" you and I can start arguing with everyone from Detroit.

To be fair, Trout's case is basically: Mildly better hitter, excellent defender, plays a premier position, and it probably the best baserunner in baseball until Billy Hamilton gets called up.  His offensive metrics are the tip of the iceberg.

Cabrera's case is basically:
1) I played on an inferior team, but thanks to being in the AL central, our 88 wins puts us in the playoffs, whereas the Angels' 89 wins leaves them on the golf course.
2) I had more RBI than a guy who hit leadoff every single time he played.


Maybe if you actually read the bazillion post threads instead of attacking strawmen, you wouldn't be trolling your way to the 73rd version of the same thread.

The arguments for Trout: running and defense matter as much as offense.

The arguments for Cabrerra: Situation matters and position players are hitters first.
 
2013-04-08 01:15:49 PM
It's because the Astros have such a negative overall WAR that they are seen more peace-loving hippy commune than baseball team.
 
2013-04-08 01:26:41 PM

DeWayne Mann: JohnnyCanuck: I was wavering between that and "Things you don't understand". Both would be apt...but I stand by my choice.

"He who knows most, knows best how little he knows."


I like how you think this is an insult.

\seriously, tho...your quote is what I have been saying to you from the get go. I'm happy to see you're finally coming around.
\\or validated to see just how oblivious you are
 
2013-04-08 01:32:30 PM
But what about the
i0.kym-cdn.com
stat?
 
2013-04-08 01:32:34 PM

meanmutton: The arguments for Trout: running and defense matter as much as offense.


Trout was also the better offensive player, unless for some bizarre reason you don't consider "running" part of the offense.

The arguments for Cabrerra: Situation matters and position players are hitters first.

1) Trout was an equally good hitter.
2) What does "situation matters" mean?  Trout's team won more games.  He can't control not being in a division where the frickin' White Sox are the only competition.
3) Why does defense suddenly not count?  You don't think Posey's defense played a role in winning the MVP over Ryan Braun?
 
2013-04-08 01:35:42 PM

JohnnyCanuck: I like how you think this is an insult.


I do?

JohnnyCanuck: \seriously, tho...your quote is what I have been saying to you from the get go. I'm happy to see you're finally coming around.
\\or validated to see just how oblivious you are


No, you've just failed to actually read what I say 80% of the time. I've never claimed that I know everything; just that I've studied this stuff way, way more than the average person. I learn more about baseball just about every day, but there's still a lot more to go.

chimp_ninja: What does "situation matters" mean?


I think it's the claim that Cabrera was more clutch or whatever.

Which ignores Trout's significant WPA advantage.
 
2013-04-08 01:38:04 PM

zarberg: Baseball Reference.com's highest single-season WARs of all time

Highest in the modern era is Dwight Gooden's 1985 season.


As awesome as Gooden was that year, it doesn't impress me as much as the Keefe or Radbourn oldey-timey seasons.

+20 WAR in a league with 112-game seasons.  The secret is throwing 73 complete games that year.
 
2013-04-08 01:48:27 PM

DeWayne Mann: JohnnyCanuck: I like how you think this is an insult.

I do?

JohnnyCanuck: \seriously, tho...your quote is what I have been saying to you from the get go. I'm happy to see you're finally coming around.
\\or validated to see just how oblivious you are

No, you've just failed to actually read what I say 80% of the time. I've never claimed that I know everything; just that I've studied this stuff way, way more than the average person. I learn more about baseball just about every day, but there's still a lot more to go.

chimp_ninja: What does "situation matters" mean?

I think it's the claim that Cabrera was more clutch or whatever.

Which ignores Trout's significant WPA advantage.


So fricken racist
 
2013-04-08 01:51:33 PM

thecpt: DeWayne Mann: JohnnyCanuck: I like how you think this is an insult.

I do?

JohnnyCanuck: \seriously, tho...your quote is what I have been saying to you from the get go. I'm happy to see you're finally coming around.
\\or validated to see just how oblivious you are

No, you've just failed to actually read what I say 80% of the time. I've never claimed that I know everything; just that I've studied this stuff way, way more than the average person. I learn more about baseball just about every day, but there's still a lot more to go.

chimp_ninja: What does "situation matters" mean?

I think it's the claim that Cabrera was more clutch or whatever.

Which ignores Trout's significant WPA advantage.

So fricken racist


That's pretty much the most racist thing anyone has ever said.
 
2013-04-08 01:58:45 PM

DeWayne Mann: That's pretty much the most racist thing anyone has ever said.


You're the one that brought up Trout's White Person Advantage over Latino Infielder (WPA/LI) of 6.0.
 
2013-04-08 02:00:30 PM

DeWayne Mann: JohnnyCanuck: \seriously, tho...your quote is what I have been saying to you from the get go. I'm happy to see you're finally coming around.
\\or validated to see just how oblivious you are

No, you've just failed to actually read what I say 80% of the time. I've never claimed that I know everything; just that I've studied this stuff way, way more than the average person. I learn more about baseball just about every day, but there's still a lot more to go.


Agreed! You can learn a lot from those with a contrasting opinion. Don't just discount it. There is a lot to be said about the statistical star who shiats the bed when the pressure is on, for example.

\I don't READ what say 100% of the time.
\\I DO read what you write any time I respond to it
 
2013-04-08 02:05:03 PM

chimp_ninja: DeWayne Mann: That's pretty much the most racist thing anyone has ever said.

You're the one that brought up Trout's White Person Advantage over Latino Infielder (WPA/LI) of 6.0.


Look, just because you hate the game of baseball, that doesn't mean everyone else has to.

JohnnyCanuck: Agreed! You can learn a lot from those with a contrasting opinion. Don't just discount it.


As I have said multiple times when people disagree with me:

If someone has facts and research to back up what they say, I would love to read it.

Except on extremely rare occasions, NO ONE EVER DOES.

So what, exactly, can I learn from those people? I don't really care what their little league coach said.
 
2013-04-08 02:10:00 PM
So, the short answer to this is that my initial thought- "sample size is still too small"- was right?
 
2013-04-08 02:12:01 PM

homarjr: Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Trout have one of the best WARs in MLB history last year?

I heard top 10. I could easily look this up, but I'd rather someone from Detroit get all pissy about it.

/Trout should've won and you all know it



philcokesbrain.files.wordpress.com
 
2013-04-08 02:12:20 PM

JohnnyCanuck: There is a lot to be said about the statistical star who shiats the bed when the pressure is on, for example.


What exactly is a "statistical star?"  Is hitting 326 with 30 hr in 139 games, as a 20 year old, not just a star?  Do we have to go around modifying that because sabermetric folks like him a lot?  IS 49 steals and 5 times caught suddenly bad because fancy numbers like it?
 
2013-04-08 02:16:15 PM

Gonz: So, the short answer to this is that my initial thought- "sample size is still too small"- was right?


Yeah, I don't even think the defensive component will be calculated for another week or two. UZR just came out with their results today or yesterday, and I seem to remember them generally being ahead of DRS.
 
2013-04-08 02:17:20 PM

Dafatone: JohnnyCanuck: There is a lot to be said about the statistical star who shiats the bed when the pressure is on, for example.

What exactly is a "statistical star?"  Is hitting 326 with 30 hr in 139 games, as a 20 year old, not just a star?  Do we have to go around modifying that because sabermetric folks like him a lot?  IS 49 steals and 5 times caught suddenly bad because fancy numbers like it?


We should invent stats like HOG-P (Hustle Over Gritty Player), "Calm Eyes Index", and "% of 110% Given" to confuse them.
 
2013-04-08 02:19:23 PM

DeWayne Mann: As I have said multiple times when people disagree with me:

If someone has facts and research to back up what they say, I would love to read it.

Except on extremely rare occasions, NO ONE EVER DOES.

So what, exactly, can I learn from those people? I don't really care what their little league coach said.


It's because athletes, or people in general, cannot be completely reduced to a number.
What you are saying is that you have a lot to learn...but you're not willing to learn from anyone who opinions are not in line with yours. So you will learn nothing.
 
2013-04-08 02:19:41 PM

TigersorHawksorBoth: homarjr: Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Trout have one of the best WARs in MLB history last year?

I heard top 10. I could easily look this up, but I'd rather someone from Detroit get all pissy about it.

/Trout should've won and you all know it


[philcokesbrain.files.wordpress.com image 600x585]


Psssst - Trout led in other stats, too. But I don't blame you for ignoring crazy, new age stuff like "stolen bases"
 
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