And when you've got the bases loaded at the top of the eighth, with no outs and a four run lead . . . and lose, you're the farkin' Cubs.


/ going to today's series closing game
// book it
/// done

I kinda like these Upton fellas.

Thank you Kevin Towers for being an absolute idiot and giving the Braves Justin.

/I do miss Prado though

Happened against the Cubs. Doesn't count.

And the Cubs are running local radio ads asking us if we're committed because the 2013 Cubs are!  Really Cubs? You're committed?  WITH MARMOL STILL ON THE ROSTER AND IN THE CLOSING SPOT YOU'RE TELLING ME YOU'RE COMMITTED?

lifeboat: And the Cubs are running local radio ads asking us if we're committed because the 2013 Cubs are!  Really Cubs? You're committed?  WITH MARMOL STILL ON THE ROSTER AND IN THE CLOSING SPOT YOU'RE TELLING ME YOU'RE COMMITTED?

They're committed in a mental institution sense.

LucklessWonder: lifeboat: And the Cubs are running local radio ads asking us if we're committed because the 2013 Cubs are!  Really Cubs? You're committed?  WITH MARMOL STILL ON THE ROSTER AND IN THE CLOSING SPOT YOU'RE TELLING ME YOU'RE COMMITTED?

They're committed in a mental institution sense.

Oh.  Well then that ad makes sense now.

"It was the 25th time in major-league history that brothers have homered in the same game as teammates"


So this is essentially a non-story then.

fatalvenom: "It was the 25th time in major-league history that brothers have homered in the same game as teammates"


So this is essentially a non-story then.

Usually when two brothers are on a team they're not both stars in their prime. And usually its not bottom of the 9th game deciding hrs in their first week together. They're kind of a big deal.

lifeboat: And the Cubs are running local radio ads asking us if we're committed because the 2013 Cubs are!  Really Cubs? You're committed?  WITH MARMOL STILL ON THE ROSTER AND IN THE CLOSING SPOT YOU'RE TELLING ME YOU'RE COMMITTED?

Every time Marmol throws a side-arm pitch he should be given an electric shock.

leevis: lifeboat: And the Cubs are running local radio ads asking us if we're committed because the 2013 Cubs are!  Really Cubs? You're committed?  WITH MARMOL STILL ON THE ROSTER AND IN THE CLOSING SPOT YOU'RE TELLING ME YOU'RE COMMITTED?

Every time Marmol throws a side-arm pitch puts on a uniform  he should be given an electric shock.

ftfm.

MaxSupernova: I kinda like these Upton fellas.

Thank you Kevin Towers for being an absolute idiot and giving the Braves Justin.

/I do miss Prado though

2 things:

1) There's no way in Hell that J-Up would be doing that in AZ right now. There was too much pressure placed on him here and now he's in a place where he can just play ball.

2) Prado and the Dbacks are doing just fine without him, thank you very much. 5 games don't make a season, but I'd say both teams are happy so far.

/Of course, I don't think the Braves like averaging over 9 strikeouts a game so far
//But they might have to get used to that

When you have talented men playing baseball it's something. But when they are from the one family, its worth seeing. And whats more? They are brothers as well.

"I've never seen anything like that in my life," Atlanta manager Fredi Gonzalez said. "I'm just glad I'm a part of that."

Fredi, you are so lucky the Marlins fired you.  Enjoy your successful team.

Pretty special moment, but I have a problem with how BOTH of them were watching the damn ball. It's not like these were towering shots where there was no doubt they were leaving the yard: a stiff breeze could have blown either one back into play. Stop showboating & farking run to first base! You can trot the rest of the way.

lifeboat: And the Cubs are running local radio ads asking us if we're committed because the 2013 Cubs are!  Really Cubs? You're committed?  WITH MARMOL STILL ON THE ROSTER AND IN THE CLOSING SPOT YOU'RE TELLING ME YOU'RE COMMITTED?

I can only assume they hoped he would look servicable long enough to trade him. That plan has not worked.

His contract, not Soriono's, was their worst signing.

So would you say that Justin one Upton.

fatalvenom: So this is essentially a non-story then.

Is it going to affect our lives in any way? Of course not. But it's pretty darn cool. Their Mom & Dad being able to see it right there in the stadium was pretty cool as well.

MaxSupernova: /I do miss Prado though

I miss Prado, too, but where in the hell would we put him? There's no one I would bench for him. Freeman is too slow for anything outside 1st base, Uggla can't play anywhere else, Simmons is probably the best shortstop in the game right now, and I wouldn't touch the outfield. Possibly 3rd base? Would he play 3rd?

lifeboat: And the Cubs are running local radio ads asking us if we're committed because the 2013 Cubs are!  Really Cubs? You're committed?  WITH MARMOL STILL ON THE ROSTER AND IN THE CLOSING SPOT YOU'RE TELLING ME YOU'RE COMMITTED?

If it's any consolation, they're pulling Marmol, who gave up two runs in the 9th. Their new closer will be Kyuji Fujikawa, the guy who gave up three runs in the eighth and hit the dirt in front of the plate a couple of times. I am not making this up.

I feel bad for Cubs fans.

ox45tallboy: MaxSupernova: /I do miss Prado though

I miss Prado, too, but where in the hell would we put him? There's no one I would bench for him. Freeman is too slow for anything outside 1st base, Uggla can't play anywhere else, Simmons is probably the best shortstop in the game right now, and I wouldn't touch the outfield. Possibly 3rd base? Would he play 3rd?

That's what he's doing for AZ. Yeah, he started in LF yesterday; but he started the other 4 games at 3B and finished there yesterday. And he's been just fine.

I must be getting old. Seems like it was just yesterday that Marmol was an effective 8th inning guy in front of a bad closer and Cubs fans were begging for Marmol to become the closer.

pdieten: I must be getting old. Seems like it was just yesterday that Marmol was an effective 8th inning guy in front of a bad closer and Cubs fans were begging for Marmol to become the closer.

In the 2010 and 2011 seasons, Marmol was very good closer.  He just fell apart in 2012 for some reason and those troubles are obviously continuing into 2013.

desertgeek: There's no way in Hell that J-Up would be doing that in AZ right now.

That's an incredible excuse. I need to remember that for the future.

pdieten: I must be getting old. Seems like it was just yesterday that Marmol was an effective 8th inning guy in front of a bad closer and Cubs fans were begging for Marmol to become the closer.

For the first 4 seasons of his career, Marmol was blessed/cursed with some incredible luck, with a BABIP of .260 or less each year. Since then, his BABIPs have been much more reasonable, hanging out between .290 & .300. Those BABIPs helped mask that, outside of 2007 & 2010, he only pitched like a slightly above average reliever.

Then you can add in the problem that plagues every reliever: since they only pitch ~70 innings a year, they're more prone to year to year variation in everything they do.

Is Marmol as bad as he looks right now? No way. But the Cubs probably should've traded him to the Angels for Dan Haren when they had the chance.

desertgeek: MaxSupernova: I kinda like these Upton fellas.

Thank you Kevin Towers for being an absolute idiot and giving the Braves Justin.

/I do miss Prado though

2 things:

1) There's no way in Hell that J-Up would be doing that in AZ right now. There was too much pressure placed on him here and now he's in a place where he can just play ball.

2) Prado and the Dbacks are doing just fine without him, thank you very much. 5 games don't make a season, but I'd say both teams are happy so far.

/Of course, I don't think the Braves like averaging over 9 strikeouts a game so far
//But they might have to get used to that

I dont know what J-Up would be doing in Arizona but i know he could be doing it there because he has done it before.  I'm sorry but Towers is an idiot for very cheaply selling off a 25 year old (with superstar potential) and already great production.  It wasnt a horrible trade because no trade that nets you Prado is horrible because he is just that good for a team but if I were a D-back fan I would be pissed at Towers. You just dont give up on a player of Justin's talent, age, and who is cost control for three more years.  Its just bad business.

DeWayne Mann: For the first 4 seasons of his career, Marmol was blessed/cursed with some incredible luck, with a BABIP of .260 or less each year. Since then, his BABIPs have been much more reasonable, hanging out between .290 & .300. Those BABIPs helped mask that, outside of 2007 & 2010, he only pitched like a slightly above average reliever.

Then you can add in the problem that plagues every reliever: since they only pitch ~70 innings a year, they're more prone to year to year variation in everything they do.

Is Marmol as bad as he looks right now? No way. But the Cubs probably should've traded him to the Angels for Dan Haren when they had the chance.

It isn't luck.  He had the low BABIP those years because his slider was amazing and if contact was made it was a weak grounder.  For the past couple years he can't get it over, so he is walking the farm.  For Marmol, BABIP isn't the issue; it is K/BB.  When his slider works it is up over 2.5.  When it doesn't, it is around 1. From his good years, he is giving up 1 more hit/9 innings, but 3 more walks.  Those walks are not bad luck.

But yes they should have traded him.  Even better, they never should have resigned him.  Even if dominate, a closer is something contenders worry about, not rebuilding teams.

fatalvenom: "It was the 25th time in major-league history that brothers have homered in the same game as teammates"


So this is essentially a non-story then.

I'm guessing of those 25, not very many of them were in the bottom of the ninth to tie and win the game.  What do you think?

DeWayne Mann: desertgeek: There's no way in Hell that J-Up would be doing that in AZ right now.

That's an incredible excuse. I need to remember that for the future.

It's not an excuse. It's the truth. He looks far more relaxed right now than he did at any point over the last 3+ years in AZ.

bacongood: It isn't luck. He had the low BABIP those years because his slider was amazing and if contact was made it was a weak grounder.

Yeah, weak contact and throwing sliders can lower a player's "BABIP-talent" somewhat. So maybe, if he's really really good, he's a .270 BABIP pitcher. But at the levels he was at before? No way that wasn't luck.

From 1961 to 2009 (the last year Carlos Marmol had a BABIP under .290), 1541 pitchers threw at least 300 innings in the majors (Marmol had 307.2). Of those 1541 pitchers, Carlos Marmol had the 4th lowest BABIP, behind Dick Hughes, Troy Percivel and Hoyt Wilhelm. That doesn't strike you as a little bit odd?

But, hey, lets look at a few other pitchers. What I've done here is look at a bunch of guys who

A. Have thrown a lot of sliders since 2002 (since that's as far back as the data goes)
and/or
B. Had really high slider pitch values since 2002 (using fangraphs)

And then I put their career BABIP next to their name. And then the list got all out of order because I'm terribly unorganized, so don't look for any sort of trend here.

Francisco Rodriguez: .277
Kiko Calero: .277
Rafael Perez: .300
Michael Wuertz: .286
Brad Lidge: .308 (Lidge is actually a really interesting guy BABIP-wise. Highly recommend looking at his year-by-year numbers)
Randy Johnson: .291
Will Ohman: .284
John Smoltz: .283
CC Sabathia: .291
Joe Nathan: .255

I purposefully saved Nathan for last, because he's the only guy that looks anything like Marmol.

The thing is, other than BABIP and having a good slider, he's actually not like Marmol much at all. Marmol throws his fastball and slider roughly the same amount. Nathan throws his fastball 2 to 3 times as much as his slider. Marmol's fastball is basically an average pitcher (-5.8 runs vs average for his career), but his slider is very good (74.8 runs above average for his career). Nathan's slider is better than the fastball on a "per pitch" basis, but since he throws the fastball more, it's been his more valuable pitch (77.9 v 56.3).

No, the most similar guy is Kiko Calero. (Actually, Perez is the MOST similar, but I don't want to get into lefty vs righty). Calero throws his slider more often than Marmol, and his fastball less, but he's gotten rather similar results (fastball at -1.7, slider at 48.6 in 60% the IP). And he has had a couple of low BABIP seasons: .210 in 2004, .257 in 2005, .254 in 2009. And yet....well, his career BABIP should tell you enough about the other years.

So, in conclusion, since this has gone on way longer than I planned and I need to get back to work, I guess it's POSSIBLE that Carlos Marmol had history's best slider for 4 years and then suddenly lost it. But I really, really doubt it.

desertgeek: It's not an excuse. It's the truth. He looks far more relaxed right now than he did at any point over the last 3+ years in AZ.

Oh, don't sell yourself short. It's a wonderful excuse.

If he was doing terribly? "Haha, the D-backs were totally right to get rid of him! He sucks!"

Doing well? "Well, there's no way he could've done that HERE, so they were STILL right to get rid of him!"

Win-win, baby!

Thing is, if it's TRUE (which, another bonus: no way to prove you wrong!), that says a lot more about the Arizona Organization than it does JUp....and not in a good way. You didn't specify who the pressure would be coming from, but I assume you mean the coaching staff. If you meant the fans/media, well then good job. You drove a great young player away. Have fun with Cody Ross.

But assuming it's the coaches...this isn't football. In football, you can legitimately have a well run organization and a good player simply not fit together because of how the offense or defense is coached. The best 3-4 nose tackle in the game might be worthless on a team running a 4-3...but that doesn't make the 4-3 a bad defense.

Baseball isn't like that at all. A player might not fit on a roster because of positional reasons, or cost, or I suppose they might not work well with a team's home park (see, for instance, Adrian Beltre), but that's about it. If a good player legitimately doesn't work with your offense, you're doing something WRONG....and trying to change the PLAYER probably won't fix that.

And if pressuring a player actually makes him play worse (something that I still doubt)...why not just, I dunno, stop pressuring him? Why trade him away for a lot less than he should be worth?

DeWayne Mann: Why trade him away for a lot less than he should be worth?

J. Upton is great. But don't try to say that Prado is "less than" what he's worth. Prado is one of the best all-around players in baseball today.

ox45tallboy: Prado is one of the best all-around players in baseball today.

Haha, what?

You know what, let's just do it this way. I've selected 6 players: Players A B C D E & F. All have played more or less full time (~130 games a year) since 2009 (two of them played a bit less in 2009, one missed some time in 2011).

One is Prado. One is JUp. I expect they'll be easy to pick out. The other 4....are not Prado or JUp, and probably not guys you think are anywhere close to being Prado. There's a mix of both OF and IF.

So, I'll go year by year, and I'll give you 5 stats for each player: Games Played, wRC+ (where 100 is an average hitter, and higher is better), UZR (where 0 is an average fielder for their position and higher is better), BsR (where 0 is an average baserunner and higher is better) and fWAR (where 2.0 is roughly average over 150 games).

2009:
Player A: 137 G, 105 wRC+, 5.1 UZR, 2.1 BsR, 3.9 fWAR
Player B: 105, 105, 4.3, -0.2, 2.1
Player C: 88, 121, 7.0, -1.1, 2.8
Player D: 128, 119, 1.7, -0.7, 2.9
Player E: 144, 112, -0.6, 2.9, 4.2
Player F: 138, 130, 7.7, 3.6, 4.6

2010:
A: 138, 78, -2.8, 4.8, 1.3
B: 158, 98, -7.5, 3.1, 1.8
C: 151, 108, 16.1, 8.0, 5.1
D: 140, 118, -3.2, 4.1, 3.9
E: 150, 93, -6.1, 2.1, 2.1
F: 133, 109, 5.3, 0.8, 2.6

2011:
A: 143, 106, 1.8, 4.4, 3.9
B: 140, 123, 16.2, 3.1, 5.6
C: 123, 93, -14.1, 5.4, 0.6
D: 129, 88, 6.5, -0.8, 1.3
E: 113, 111, 1.0, -0.7, 2.6
F: 159, 139, 7.9, 4.5, 6.0

2012:
A: 141, 106, 2.5, 5.2, 3.7
B: 147, 102, 4.3, 1.6, 3.0
C: 154, 113, 0.5, 8.1, 4.4
D: 156, 116, 18.4, 3.3, 5.6
E: 156, 99, -5.0, 0.3, 2.1
F: 150, 108, -3.1, 3.0, 2.0


So, take your time, try to figure out what in there shows that Prado is "one of the best all-around players in baseball today."

I'll wait

Ok, you done? Here are the players:

Player A: Erick Aybar
Player B: Howie Kendrick
Player C: Angel Pagan
Player D: Martin Prado
Player E: Marco Scutaro
Player F: Justin Upton

In conclusion, Angel Pagan is surprisingly good, except for that weird UZR thing in 2011.
(Also really good? Ben Zobrist, who I originally had instead of Scutaro. Except Zobrist was so good he made everyone else look silly.)

DeWayne Mann: Angel Pagan is surprisingly good

DeWayne Mann: Zobrist was so good he made everyone else look silly

You see, those two things right there should show you that there is more to a player than just the stats you chose to present.

Prado has been bounced around the Braves infield and outfield for all of his career, yet still put up respectable numbers. He's been consistent as a hitter (since his 2nd season), and his BA has been quite good as well.

He's the kind of guy you can tell an hour before the game that he'll be playing a different position, and he'll look at you and say, "Okay" and get out there and do a MLB-caliber job. He's not a superstar power hitter, but he hits his share of extra bases. He's not the best defensively, but wherever he's put, he does a better-than-average job.

How many of these other players get bounced around the field defensively and around the batting order offensively?

I stand by my statement that he is one of the best "all-around" players in the game today.

ox45tallboy: How many of these other players get bounced around the field defensively and around the batting order offensively?

Oh, THAT'S what you mean by "all-around?" Most people mean "hits well, fields well, runs well."

In that case...

That's an incredibly silly thing to care about.

Let's take the latter first. The whole batting position thing is terribly overblown, and hitters should not hit any differently depending on where they are in the lineup (with the possible exception of batting 8th in the NL). The idea that you can move him around in the order no problem is sort of an insane thing to care about. Good job, he's not really whiny about inconsequential crap.

Moving to defense: yes, there is a small amount of value to being able to play multiple positions. It is, however, something that is quite often overblown, for a couple of reasons. In particular, two come to mind here:

First: any non-1B should be able to play COF with no real difficulty other than a small learning curve. That's not really a bonus.

Second: Just because you can physically stand at a position, that doesn't mean you should be used there. Prado's generally been a pretty bad defensive 2B, and while he's had decent SS numbers, it's in an incredibly small sample (and it's highly unlikely that someone would play SS better than 2B). So, combined with part 1, Prado is basically a 3B who played for a team that already had a 3B. His playing multiple positions in the past is because, if he didn't, he wouldn't play. Of course he wouldn't complain about moving around!

But, hey, you're right. He doesn't make a lot of noise. And that seems to be really, really important to the D-backs. So, good for them: they got a decent player that works for their insane system, and they only had to give up a better, younger and slightly more expensive player to get him.  Totally a win-win deal.

LucklessWonder: [sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net image 480x319]

that is frickin awesome

DeWayne Mann: Thing is, if it's TRUE (which, another bonus: no way to prove you wrong!), that says a lot more about the Arizona Organization than it does JUp....and not in a good way.

No, I can tell you exactly where the pressure came from: ownership. They followed up his best overall batting year, at the age of 21 (2009- .300 BA, .899 OPS, 26 HR, 20 SB, 86 RBI) with a 6 yr contract extension even though that was his 2nd full ML season and he wasn't going to be arbitration eligible for another year (of course, he'll never have to go through arbitration thanks to that deal).

And then, they named the right field bleachers at the ballpark after him:



This kid was crowned as "the face of the franchise" before he was ready to be that. He was asked, by ownership, to be "The Man" when he didn't have the mental makeup to do it (at least yet, we'll see how being in Atlanta and with his brother changes that).

Add on that he has been known to sulk when things aren't going his way (a trait that didn't earn him any love from Gibson) and that in 2011 (the only year he had more HR, RBI and SB than 2009), he got plunked 19 times and his pitchers didn't do near enough to deliver payback (which frankly pissed me off) and you have a guy who probably wanted out of here more so than our GM didn't want him.

The one thing I will concede is this: he has a ton of talent and was the best player in that trade, by far. He just wasn't living up to his potential here and wasn't going to, especially with the current staff and how they want the game to be played (Upton is just not a "grind it out" type). A change was needed for everyone and so far, it's done Upton good and the Dbacks good. But it's 1 week. Let's see where things stand in June or so before we start calling people geniuses or idiots.

ox45tallboy: DeWayne Mann: Why trade him away for a lot less than he should be worth?

J. Upton is great. But don't try to say that Prado is "less than" what he's worth. Prado is one of the best all-around players in baseball today.

I watched Prado play for years and while I like him you are insane, he's a nice piece that you can plug in anywhere and I wish every player had his enthusiasm but he's not close to the best all around player and may not be in the top 10.

Also he tends to try to do too much and tires towards the end of the season, I love him but he's not what is going to get a team over the hump.

I'm guessing we're not talking about Jason and Jeremy?

desertgeek: They followed up his best overall batting year, at the age of 21 (2009- .300 BA, .899 OPS, 26 HR, 20 SB, 86 RBI) with a 6 yr contract extension even though that was his 2nd full ML season and he wasn't going to be arbitration eligible for another year (of course, he'll never have to go through arbitration thanks to that deal).

Funny. When the Rays do that to all of their players, none of them get driven out of town.

desertgeek: Let's see where things stand in June or so before we start calling people geniuses or idiots.

A trade should be judged at the time it's made. Playing wait & see makes no sense, especially in a trade that involved almost no prospects. If Prado breaks his neck in a car crash tomorrow, that doesn't make the trade better for the Braves, right? Yet that would certainly have an effect on waiting & seeing.

The D-backs made a number of mistakes with this trade, but the biggest one was this: by deciding to implement this poorly designed "grittiness" plan, they lowered JUp's value to the Diamondbacks. Now, that's already a mistake, but it's not the big one I was talking about. No, that came when they used that artificially lowered value as his trade value.

You wanna trade Justin Upton? Fine. No player should be untouchable, so go for it. But make other teams pay. Get some actual prospects, not fringy guys in the low minors. Get a good player who has more than one more year of team control left.

It's tough to find similar trades to this one, simply because guys like Upton don't get traded. But take a look at the first Matt Holliday trade. Holliday was older, more expensive, and had fewer years left on his contract. And yet the Rockies got a rookie SP, one of the top relievers (still just 24), and a 22 year old rookie OF named Carlos Gonzalez. And I remember a lot of people thought the Rockies could've gotten more.

The return the Dbacks got back does not match Upton's value to other teams; it matches his value to the D-backs. That's the absolute wrong way to go about building a team.

DeWayne Mann: A trade should be judged at the time it's made.

That's the dumbest thing you've said so far. Any transaction shouldn't be judged until later. People thought A-Rod was going to be the greatest thing since sliced bread and he got paid like that. What happened? Nowhere near enough for what he got paid. When people talk about who "won" a trade, people look at what each player did with their new team or if there's prospects, did they pan out the way people thought they would. You can't fully judge a trade before anyone played a damn game for their new clubs. If that could happen, there'd never be a bad trade in any sport ever. But it doesn't work that way, does it?

DeWayne Mann: The return the Dbacks got back does not match Upton's value to other teams; it matches his value to the D-backs. That's the absolute wrong way to go about building a team.

A point you're missing is that Upton had a limited no-trade clause. The Dbacks actually had a deal to move him to Seattle for more than what the Braves gave up but Upton said no to the Mariners. The return the Dbacks got doesn't actually match what they truly valued him at. The Braves knew it was a limited market for Upton and they didn't have to give up everything to get him. It became an untenable situation between Upton and the organization because of the pressure and the known shopping around. Put it all together and you get the trade that happened.

desertgeek: People thought A-Rod was going to be the greatest thing since sliced bread and he got paid like that. What happened? Nowhere near enough for what he got paid.

Which deal are we talking about here? Because he actually did a pretty good job of living up to the Texas deal. The only year he didn't have an fWAR of at least 6 was 2006, and that was the year he was randomly terrible at defense.

His second deal, the post opt-out one, wasn't great, but I don't remember anyone actually thinking it was. It was obvious that was George Steinbrenner throwing money at A-rod to save face. I don't think anyone thought he'd still be one of the best players in the game in his 40s.

desertgeek: When people talk about who "won" a trade, people look at what each player did with their new team or if there's prospects, did they pan out the way people thought they would

So, hypothetical situation:

The Rangers trade Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt to the Reds for Bronson Arroyo.

You wouldn't be comfortable judging that trade for 5 or 6 years?

desertgeek: You can't fully judge a trade before anyone played a damn game for their new clubs.

Again, this makes some sense in football. Not in baseball.

desertgeek: The return the Dbacks got doesn't actually match what they truly valued him at. The Braves knew it was a limited market for Upton and they didn't have to give up everything to get him. It became an untenable situation between Upton and the organization because of the pressure and the known shopping around. Put it all together and you get the trade that happened.

Read this section again, and then say, with a straight face, that the D-backs didn't screw this situation up massively.