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(Hindustan Times)   Kim Jong-Un: A mystery wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a windtalker wrapped in Scooby-Doo episode wrapped in bacon   (hindustantimes.com ) divider line
    More: Interesting, Scooby Doo, bacon  
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7665 clicks; posted to Main » on 05 Apr 2013 at 8:50 AM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-04-05 02:18:05 PM  

elchupacabra: Dumb question, but what are the odds NK is not mobilizing its armed forces because it expects to cause disarray with a WMD (chemical and nuclear) and conventional artillery barrage, long enough that it can actually mobilize ground forces while everyone else is staggered and yet to get a response?

Not that it's a good plan -- not saying that.  Just that I vaguely recall some Cold War plans involved "Bolt from the Blue" scenarios where mobilization was either nonexistent or minimal right up until hours before a massive strike that only included units that could immediately strike -- which would be air, artillery, WMD, and "sleeper" units.  Those would, in theory, allow the main ground forces to actually complete mobilization in the chaotic time immediately afterward.

This, of course, would require some serious first strike action, and the use of WMD would have to be just enough to keep the US uncertain as to whether they'd be able to respond in kind -- perhaps just chemical weapons and nukes are ready to go as blackmail?  Might be Fat Boy's only option presented to him as viable.


The terror/extortion angle is all I can come up with. There is absolutely no upside for them in all this. Until I see shooting, I'm still assuming they are looking for concessions, food aid, etc.
 
2013-04-05 02:41:01 PM  
Yeah, I'm wondering if they wrote their plans like a crappy Basic script:

10 MAKE THREAT
20 If FOOD=YES THEN GOTO 40
30 THREAT=THREAT+1
40 END

And now their Threat is about to hit 32767.

/yeah, I know, lame metaphor
//NK even know anything more than BASIC?
 
2013-04-05 02:42:02 PM  
DAMMIT.  Bad coding:

10 MAKE THREAT
20 If FOOD=YES THEN GOTO 50
30 THREAT=THREAT+1
40 GOTO 10
50 END

/This is why I didn't do well in college programming courses
 
2013-04-05 03:19:03 PM  

elchupacabra: This, of course, would require some serious first strike action, and the use of WMD would have to be just enough to keep the US uncertain as to whether they'd be able to respond in kind


The US has always been open about their policy of responding to chemical/biological weapons with nukes.
 
2013-04-05 03:32:14 PM  
This whole thing is just making me go "WTF". He's obviously completely batshiat crazy. I'm sure Obama and his generals are alternating between laughing their asses off and drawing up plans to take him out.
 
2013-04-05 03:37:11 PM  

This text is now purple: elchupacabra: This, of course, would require some serious first strike action, and the use of WMD would have to be just enough to keep the US uncertain as to whether they'd be able to respond in kind

The US has always been open about their policy of responding to chemical/biological weapons with nukes.


Yeah, but how fast?  I'm thinking if any plan involves a fait accompli that does not threaten Japan or the US, that is also very quick in resolution, the US might not be able to get a nuclear response up before our own anti-nuke crowd (for whatever reasons) intervene and argue it's too late to respond.  That might be their gamble.  Again, not saying it is a good one....
 
2013-04-05 03:45:47 PM  

Jument: This whole thing is just making me go "WTF". He's obviously completely batshiat crazy. I'm sure Obama and his generals are alternating between laughing their asses off and drawing up plans to take him out.


No, not crazy.  Cornered.

Reports suggest some of his own generals tried to assassinate the little fat man recently.  He needs an artificially created crisis to get his people behind him, just as his father and grandfather did before him.

No amount of external negotiation is going to solve this. Even if we agreed to bi-lateral talks tomorrow, he couldn't tell us what he wants.  What he wants is his own people off his back.  He doesn't have a long term end game.  He's just trying to get past this immediate, internal crisis.

Here's the problem, he's gone to far to exit without at least doing a little damage to the other side.  So he'll probably engage in some sort of limited attack in the very near future.  Sink a boat, shell a village, something.  This raises the possibility of retaliation from the west.  Given the fat man's precarious position, any retaliation may force him into retaliation.  Retaliation for a retaliation quickly evolves into full blown war.

It's a war the north would absolutely lose, but they'd probably take a huge hunk of the South Korean capital with them.
 
2013-04-05 03:52:16 PM  

RandomRandom: Jument: This whole thing is just making me go "WTF". He's obviously completely batshiat crazy. I'm sure Obama and his generals are alternating between laughing their asses off and drawing up plans to take him out.

No, not crazy.  Cornered.

Reports suggest some of his own generals tried to assassinate the little fat man recently.  He needs an artificially created crisis to get his people behind him, just as his father and grandfather did before him.

No amount of external negotiation is going to solve this. Even if we agreed to bi-lateral talks tomorrow, he couldn't tell us what he wants.  What he wants is his own people off his back.  He doesn't have a long term end game.  He's just trying to get past this immediate, internal crisis.

Here's the problem, he's gone to far to exit without at least doing a little damage to the other side.  So he'll probably engage in some sort of limited attack in the very near future.  Sink a boat, shell a village, something.  This raises the possibility of retaliation from the west.  Given the fat man's precarious position, any retaliation may force him into retaliation.  Retaliation for a retaliation quickly evolves into full blown war.

It's a war the north would absolutely lose, but they'd probably take a huge hunk of the South Korean capital with them.


Yeah, and it's not our responsibility to give him "wiggle room".  And we're tired of having done so in the past.
 
2013-04-05 03:52:49 PM  

hitlersbrain: Summa cum loudly: hitlersbrain: ransack.: Carn: Uchiha_Cycliste: The Bestest: Uchiha_Cycliste: 

Active soldiers? That has not mattered since WWII. Missiles, Air strikes, naval artillery barrages and just good old automatic weapons make 'troops' pretty much inconsequential. Like grass to a lawn mower.

Confucius say lawnmower get clogged when grass grow too high...

Good luck with that. The tet offensive showed just how worthless numbers are and that was a long time ago.


Yes, but the Tet Offensive took place when the media was fighting on the same side as the Vietcong. The simultaneous display of force combined with Walter Cronkite delivering his grand "Turning Point" speech, openly declaring the war a total loss and demanding a pullout, is how we were defeated.

Today, the press is so completely in the tank with Obama he would win another Nobel Peace Prize if he accidentally nuked Seoul trying to hit Pyongyang.
 
2013-04-05 03:55:03 PM  
This whole conflict will be over before you stupid farks are finished deliberating "decimate".

Go home.
 
2013-04-05 03:57:38 PM  

dabbletech: This whole conflict will be over before you stupid farks are finished deliberating "decimate".

Go home.


/pistol whipping time
 
2013-04-05 03:58:55 PM  

elchupacabra: dabbletech: This whole conflict will be over before you stupid farks are finished deliberating "decimate".

Go home.

/pistol whipping time


Goddammit so much:

www.reno4x4.com
 
2013-04-05 04:01:11 PM  
The best case scenario is to quietly evacuate seoul and launch a massive simultaneous attack on best korea.       The only other alternative is to wait and hope that the regime falls in a manageable way sometime in the next couple of decades.

chew, discuss..
 
2013-04-05 04:05:00 PM  

Maul555: The best case scenario is to quietly evacuate seoul and launch a massive simultaneous attack on best korea.       The only other alternative is to wait and hope that the regime falls in a manageable way sometime in the next couple of decades.

chew, discuss..


... Quietly?
 
2013-04-05 05:13:12 PM  

elchupacabra: Yeah, and it's not our responsibility to give him "wiggle room". And we're tired of having done so in the past.


Yeah, that's easy to say when you don't live in South Korea.  South Korean's will be the most likely victims of whatever small attack the fat man orders.  South Koreans will die in huge numbers if this turns into a full blown war.

If you and yours lived in Seoul, I don't think you'd be so gung ho about starting full out war with the mini tyrant.  He'd absolutely lose any war, but he could still kill one hell of a lot of innocents on his way out.
 
2013-04-05 05:28:10 PM  

Tatterdemalian: Yes, but the Tet Offensive took place when the media was fighting on the same side as the Vietcong.


Still butthurt? Wow.
 
2013-04-05 05:35:24 PM  

blatz514: [www.hindustantimes.com image 650x400]

"No ya silly fark, we'll get bombed from that direction."


Is that an ashtray in the foreground?  Setting a cigarette in such close proximity to straw doesn't seem like a good idea.  Hey, why is the place lined with straw anyway?
 
2013-04-05 05:50:51 PM  

RandomRandom: elchupacabra: Yeah, and it's not our responsibility to give him "wiggle room". And we're tired of having done so in the past.

Yeah, that's easy to say when you don't live in South Korea.  South Korean's will be the most likely victims of whatever small attack the fat man orders.  South Koreans will die in huge numbers if this turns into a full blown war.

If you and yours lived in Seoul, I don't think you'd be so gung ho about starting full out war with the mini tyrant.  He'd absolutely lose any war, but he could still kill one hell of a lot of innocents on his way out.


No family directly, but have friends with family there, so there's that.

Doesn't change the fact that you know the guy's effectively a serial blackmailer, and not just, "give me money or I'll put nekkid pics of you on the Internet", but more like, "Give me money or I'll kill your family.  And oh, by the way, if I get a chance, I'll kill your family anyway".

At some point, you gotta stop the cycle of blackmail.  And gambling that his regime will collapse and somehow magically nothing will happen to South Korea in that time of anarchy, is wishful thinking IMO.
 
2013-04-05 08:57:41 PM  
Kim Jong-Un: A mystery wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a windtalker wrapped in Scooby-Doo episode wrapped in bacon

... and smothered in Secret Sauce.
 
2013-04-05 09:07:24 PM  
A lion doesn't roar before attacking it's prey.
 
2013-04-05 10:34:30 PM  

dukeblue219: orclover: FTFY,  Dont use that word except for its intended purpose.  If all we did was "decimate" their tanks and planes then it would be a laughably ineffective battle.

Merriam-Webster:
dec·i·mate
3a : to reduce drastically especially in number  <choleradecimated the population>
b : to cause great destruction or harm to  <firebombsdecimated the city> <an industry  decimated by recession>


The meanings of words change over time, and the fact that decimate USED TO mean "to destroy 10% of something" doesn't make that its current meaning.

(Directing that more at  orclover than  dukeblue219.)
 
2013-04-05 10:46:19 PM  

RandomRandom: HMS_Blinkin: WRT their artillery, a lot of their positions are fixed, and are in fact viewable on Google Earth (so you know the US military knows where they are too). I don't expect that those fixed positions would last very long either---it's just a matter of us not running out of ammo to shoot at them, but between attack planes/helos, drones, cruise missiles, etc., I imagine we could silence most of their artillery reasonably fast.

We would be very unlikely to destroy enough of that artillery fast enough to keep them from devastating Seoul and anything else close to the border.  Many of those fixed positions are in reinforced concrete revetments.  Counter battery may have to hit them a dozen times to knock them out.  Aircraft may be required to destroy many of them.

Not a problem when dealing with a few hundred, but we're talking tens of thousands.  Some estimates put the total at 50,000, with 5,000 hardened tubes within range of Seoul.  Even if you can take out the '1% per hour' that is claimed by the South Korean military, that still results in the total destruction of Seoul.

Just consider the 5,000 Artillery tubes pointed at Seoul.  Firing just 4 times per minute (a low figure), that puts 20,000 explosions into a city of 10 1/2 million within the FIRST MINUTE.   Within the first hour, 1.2 million HE and incendiary shells go into that thriving metropolis.  Yes, there will be a high dud and miss rate, but even if the duds and misses comprise 90% of the shells, Seoul will still be farked.

That's the reason we haven't knocked these idiot's blocks off already.  Because the south put their capital in the wrong damn place.


I do honestly wonder sometimes why South Korea doesn't move their capital to Pusan.
 
2013-04-05 11:10:43 PM  

ciberido: RandomRandom: HMS_Blinkin: WRT their artillery, a lot of their positions are fixed, and are in fact viewable on Google Earth (so you know the US military knows where they are too). I don't expect that those fixed positions would last very long either---it's just a matter of us not running out of ammo to shoot at them, but between attack planes/helos, drones, cruise missiles, etc., I imagine we could silence most of their artillery reasonably fast.

We would be very unlikely to destroy enough of that artillery fast enough to keep them from devastating Seoul and anything else close to the border.  Many of those fixed positions are in reinforced concrete revetments.  Counter battery may have to hit them a dozen times to knock them out.  Aircraft may be required to destroy many of them.

Not a problem when dealing with a few hundred, but we're talking tens of thousands.  Some estimates put the total at 50,000, with 5,000 hardened tubes within range of Seoul.  Even if you can take out the '1% per hour' that is claimed by the South Korean military, that still results in the total destruction of Seoul.

Just consider the 5,000 Artillery tubes pointed at Seoul.  Firing just 4 times per minute (a low figure), that puts 20,000 explosions into a city of 10 1/2 million within the FIRST MINUTE.   Within the first hour, 1.2 million HE and incendiary shells go into that thriving metropolis.  Yes, there will be a high dud and miss rate, but even if the duds and misses comprise 90% of the shells, Seoul will still be farked.

That's the reason we haven't knocked these idiot's blocks off already.  Because the south put their capital in the wrong damn place.

I do honestly wonder sometimes why South Korea doesn't move their capital to Pusan.


I be willing to bet that the second SK started to move their capital then NK would say its a start-up to attack NK(ie remove the capital form with in range of NK's weapons) and say if its not stopped they will attack.
 
2013-04-06 05:24:10 AM  

TV's Vinnie: How many more decades are we going to kiss their asses! Instead of sending them free money and food, how about we use that for our own citizens in need???!


because socialism is bad !!!

// I am a socialist
 
2013-04-06 09:37:40 AM  

FarkinNortherner: italie: Step 1. Ignore until weapons are fired.
Step2. Remove anything remotely close to a weapon that can reach the border.
Step3. Leave.

You missed Steps 1b&c.
- Clean up smouldering remains of Seoul.
- Reboot South Korean economy without its dominant economic centre.

Best case models of the NK artillery assault leave Seoul 'only' as damaged as Sarajevo after the siege.


I don't disagree, but I think a pre-emptive straike by anyone other than China is going to do far worse to the global community as a whole.

//mostly due to our own stubbornness.
 
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