insano: The author is gaming the numbers by assuming an unusually low infection rate of 1 in 500. The positive predictive value is largely dependent on the prevalence of disease in the population. If you are assuming that this disease is reaching pandemic proportions then 1 in 500 is a very low estimate. If you instead assume that 25% of people will actually have the disease, then the positive predictive value of the 99% accurate test is 99 % 97%. Even if you assume a 10% infection rate, then the positive predictive value of the 99% accurate test is still 92%.
If you like these links, you'll love
Come for the Total, stay for the Farking.
Sign up for the Fark NotNewsletter!
Links are submitted by members of the Fark community.
When community members submit a link, they also write a custom headline for the story.
Other Farkers comment on the links. This is the number of comments. Click here to read them.
You need to create an account to submit links or post comments.
Click here to submit a link.
Also on Fark
Submit a Link »
Copyright © 1999 - 2018 Fark, Inc | Last updated: Jan 19 2018 22:51:34
Runtime: 0.125 sec (125 ms)