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(Network World)   How the difference between 99% and 99.9% could save humankind from a Zombie Apocalypse   (networkworld.com) divider line 3
    More: Interesting, Alex Suchman, Quora, entirety, maths, nobel prize in medicine, human extinction, computing  
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3998 clicks; posted to Geek » on 04 Apr 2013 at 9:00 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-04-04 01:02:27 PM
1 votes:

insano: The author is gaming the numbers by assuming an unusually low infection rate of 1 in 500. The positive predictive value is largely dependent on the prevalence of disease in the population. If you are assuming that this disease is reaching pandemic proportions then 1 in 500 is a very low estimate. If you instead assume that 25% of people will actually have the disease, then the positive predictive value of the 99% accurate test is 99 % 97%. Even if you assume a 10% infection rate, then the positive predictive value of the 99% accurate test is still 92%.


FTFM
2013-04-04 12:57:47 PM
1 votes:
The author is gaming the numbers by assuming an unusually low infection rate of 1 in 500. The positive predictive value is largely dependent on the prevalence of disease in the population. If you are assuming that this disease is reaching pandemic proportions then 1 in 500 is a very low estimate. If you instead assume that 25% of people will actually have the disease, then the positive predictive value of the 99% accurate test is 99%. Even if you assume a 10% infection rate, then the positive predictive value of the 99% accurate test is still 92%.
2013-04-04 08:11:49 AM
1 votes:
Math makes anything boring.
 
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