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(BBC)   North Korea has shut down the Kaesong complex   (bbc.co.uk) divider line 287
    More: Followup, Kaesong, North Koreans, Ministry of Unification, South Koreans, Yongbyon  
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18743 clicks; posted to Main » on 02 Apr 2013 at 11:54 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-04-03 04:20:24 AM  

BarkingUnicorn: digistil: BarkingUnicorn: Now That's What I Call a Taco!: 800 South Koreans are currently trapped at the factory. SK working on military contingency plans to get them out if necessary.

This is now an international hostage crisis. Un could literally go from "tubby annoyance" to full-blown mad man tomorrow.

Citation, please.  All I'm seeing is that South Koreans aren't allowed IN.

It was a rumor, but has been debunked.

Damn you, Obama!


Funny enough, the rumor was mostly being spread on Twitter with the hashtag #tcot
 
2013-04-03 04:20:53 AM  
SEOUL, April 3 (Yonhap) -- Seoul's defense chief said Wednesday the military is considering all available options, including possible military action, to ensure the safety of the hundreds of South Koreans who remain in the North's border town of Kaesong after the communist state cut off access to a joint industrial complex there.
Early Wednesday, Pyongyang banned South Korean workers from entering the inter-Korean industrial park in Kaesong, only allowing South Koreans currently staying in the border town to return home.
 
2013-04-03 04:29:10 AM  

ontariolightning: SEOUL, April 3 (Yonhap) -- Seoul's defense chief said Wednesday the military is considering all available options, including possible military action, to ensure the safety of the hundreds of South Koreans who remain in the North's border town of Kaesong after the communist state cut off access to a joint industrial complex there.
Early Wednesday, Pyongyang banned South Korean workers from entering the inter-Korean industrial park in Kaesong, only allowing South Koreans currently staying in the border town to return home.


If that is factual and they choose that option, this will get grim quickly.
 
2013-04-03 05:37:21 AM  
media.tumblr.com
 
2013-04-03 05:41:25 AM  

Owangotang: I had a brother at Kaesong
Fighting off them Viet-cong
They're still there, he's all gone


Damn you, beat me to it
 
2013-04-03 05:56:29 AM  
Triumph:

Can't kingdoms have constitutions? Jordan has one, I believe.

So does Japan, Canada, Australia, the UK (sort of) and a ton of others. There's a lot more monarchies around than you'd think
 
2013-04-03 06:04:41 AM  

Any Pie Left: This is hardly a blip to South Korea. But it is an incredibly damaging thing for the North to do to itself; losing  the currency it was generating, and the business.   When their people eventually rise up against their government, it is going to be more bloody than anything seen in the last 100 years, I promise.


HAHA! That's as likely to happen as Americans rising up against Jesus.  Ain't gonna happen.
 
2013-04-03 06:09:37 AM  

Satanic_Hamster: CthulhuCalling: Isn't the Aegis carried on cruisers and not destroyers?

On both Arleigh Burke class destroyers and Ticonderoga class cruisers.   Should be noted that not all Arleigh Burke and Ticonderogas have Aegis.


All Arleigh Burkes AND all of the Ticonderoga Class cruisers have Aegis. The superstructure and electrical systems of both classes of ship are built around the radar array. It's just a question of which version of Aegis is installed. The Cruisers have the more powerful platform. The Destroyers tend to have the more up-to-date block upgrades.

Not all of the Ticonderoga class cruisers were built with the Vertical Launch System (VLS). Those that weren't have since been retired. The Navy actually refers to the remaining cruisers as CG-52 (Bunker Hill) class. That may be what people are confusing the issue with.
 
2013-04-03 06:12:05 AM  
www.abc.net.au
My uncle killed thousands of Chinese. They would just keep marching on their machine gun positions.
The dead would be stacked 6' high at some points. But at night the Chinese would move in and take the dead away.
 
2013-04-03 06:16:58 AM  

ImpendingCynic: Benevolent Misanthrope: Judging by our wars since WII, the U.S. isn't exactly known for winning.

Operation Desert Storm? When you can make your enemy surrender to the media, I think you probably win.


Let's also not forget Grenada and Panama. Get in, test out our new toys, GTFO.
 
2013-04-03 06:36:36 AM  
 
2013-04-03 06:48:04 AM  
I'm getting tired of the media's war-boner. Best Korea has a giant temper tantrum every three years or so and threatens to turn the imperialist dogs into charcoal, and then relent after the imperialists give them some pittance of aid (which they surely spin as tribute). Imagine if CNN didn't bother to carry all the "COULD IT BE WAR??" "WHY IS EVERYONE SCARED OF THE NORKS?" "LET'S LOOK AT WHAT TWITTER SAYS!" stories.
 
2013-04-03 07:07:28 AM  

Cthulhu_is_my_homeboy: MaudlinMutantMollusk: Satanic_Hamster:

Officials have also confirmed that the USS John McCain, an Aegis-class destroyer capable of intercepting missiles


You know, I have this mental image of McCain batting down missiles with his hands. And its awesome.
 
2013-04-03 07:21:11 AM  

MindStalker: Cthulhu_is_my_homeboy: MaudlinMutantMollusk: Satanic_Hamster:

Officials have also confirmed that the USS John McCain, an Aegis-class destroyer capable of intercepting missiles

You know, I have this mental image of McCain batting down missiles with his hands. And its awesome.

 
2013-04-03 07:22:20 AM  
Okay. For all you landlubbers out there, one more time; Aegis is a radar system. It's carried by cruisers and destroyers.  The USS John McCain is a Arleigh Burke class destroyer.  They carry about 60-70 missles , SAMs, SSMs, etc. One Burke could pretty much remodel Pyoyang, or end their navy, or cripple their AF.  Before Lunch.
 
2013-04-03 07:26:03 AM  

Benevolent Misanthrope: Judging by our wars since WII, the U.S. isn't exactly known for winning.


Korea: Tie . . .only on the grounds we didn't want to escalate to WW III, which is what winning would have required due to Chinese intervention.

Vietnam:  Loss. . .only on the grounds that we didn't want to escalate to WW III, which is what winning would have required due to Soviet intervention.  The entire Southeast Asia scenario in the late 60's and early '70's was a geopolitical mess.

Grenada: Overwhelming US win.

Panama: Overwhelming US win.

First Gulf War: Overwhelming US win.  Iraq was the 4th largest army in the world, after an air war lasting less than a month, and a ground war of less than 100 hours they were totally routed and broken.

Iraq: US win.  Overwhelming military win in the initial phase.  Occupation was difficult, but we pulled it out with the "surge".  What else could we do?  Occupy them forever until they were our BFF's?  The war itself was a mistake, but it would be a lie to say we lost it.

Afghanistan: In progress, but US is winning.  Same as Iraq, initial overwhelming US military win.  Long, drawn out occupation.  Lot of problems with Pakistan being very two-faced towards us, lot of trouble getting the locals on our side, but over time we've come to largely be seen as the lesser of two evils by many/most of the Afghanis (we are foreign invaders, but the Taliban are even worse, so they want the Taliban dealt with and us gone).  We're just trying to make sure the Taliban don't immediately reconquer the country when we leave.

Note that we're really good at winning outright shooting wars.  We have NEVER lost a straight-out no-holds-barred shooting war.  We only lose if we're holding back because we don't want to escalate.  Also, occupation is helluva hard for a modern army because unless you're willing to commit atrocities and war crimes it's very hard to get the locals on your side and it can take a long time.

With Best Korea, we've got South Korea on our side to help.  In a Second Korean War, it's a pretty safe bet that South Koreans would be doing a LOT of the postwar occupation work for us, which takes a lot of pressure off us.
 
2013-04-03 07:35:21 AM  

UnspokenVoice: Amos Quito: [img.auctiva.com image 400x248]


Over hill over dale we will hit the dusty trail
As the Kaesongs go rolling along
Up and down, in and out, Countermarch and right about,
And our Kaesongs go rolling along
For it's hi-hi-hee in the Field Artillery, Shout out the number loud and strong
Till our final ride, It will always be our pride
To keep those Kaesongs a rolling along

Is that sung to the tune of You're a Grand Old Flag? I like some march music. And big band. It's good music to nod out to. ;)


It's actually sung to the tune of the old GI Joe Commercial ;)

Gi Joe
GI Joe
Fighting man from head to toe
On the land on the sea in the aiiiiiir


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBtPmuTrtAk">https://www.youtube.com /watch?v=kBtPmuTrtAk

"Grand old Flag" I recall was a beer commercial in the 1960s
 
2013-04-03 07:46:15 AM  

Benevolent Misanthrope: ontariolightning: BolloxReader: Weren't there people saying that as long as this complex was going, there wasn't anything to worry about?
I think the game just got interesting.

meh. They've closed it down multiple times before.

Yeah, this.  The North Koreans are assholes, but they're not suicidal.  They'll just continue to bluster and threaten, like a bully in an empty schoolyard.  But also like a bully, they won't throw a punch against anyone who could ever possibly fight back.

I do wonder, though - if they did attack South Korea, what would happen?  Judging by our wars since WII, the U.S. isn't exactly known for winning.  My guess is we'd declare war and then try not to hurt anyone.  Again.


War is a dirty business that should be avoided if possible, but, if it can't be avoided then fark this clean, half-ass shiat.
I'm generally opposed to wars, but if you're going to have one then you need to go in it to win.
 
2013-04-03 08:00:05 AM  

mr intrepid: Okay. For all you landlubbers out there, one more time; Aegis is a radar system. It's carried by cruisers and destroyers.  The USS John McCain is a Arleigh Burke class destroyer.  They carry about 60-70 missles , SAMs, SSMs, etc. One Burke could pretty much remodel Pyoyang, or end their navy, or cripple their AF.  Before Lunch.


I thought it was a mythological shield.
 
2013-04-03 08:07:36 AM  

Triumph: The KCNA said this morning that Kim Jong Un is to issue a "final order," to end North Korea's "long-standing history of showdown with the U.S."

"The aggressors and provocateurs will face a disgraceful ruin in the final battle [for reunification] to be started soon, and the great Korean nation will greet the bright day of national reunification,"
LINK


Considering the fact that NK is being the aggressor in this situation, those may turn out to be prophetic words.
 
2013-04-03 08:09:01 AM  

Benevolent Misanthrope: ontariolightning: BolloxReader: Weren't there people saying that as long as this complex was going, there wasn't anything to worry about?
I think the game just got interesting.

meh. They've closed it down multiple times before.

Yeah, this.  The North Koreans are assholes, but they're not suicidal.  They'll just continue to bluster and threaten, like a bully in an empty schoolyard.  But also like a bully, they won't throw a punch against anyone who could ever possibly fight back.

I do wonder, though - if they did attack South Korea, what would happen?  Judging by our wars since WII, the U.S. isn't exactly known for winning.  My guess is we'd declare war and then try not to hurt anyone.  Again.


Actually, 'since WWII', we soundly kicked NK's ass, and without even a full-bore war effort.

It was CHINA we had trouble with over there.  That's the wild card now, imho.
 
2013-04-03 08:09:53 AM  

What in The: Un, don't make us send Bill Clinton over there. Again. You know what happened last time.


He'll bone a short, plump brunette...named Kim?

/eeewww
 
2013-04-03 08:19:33 AM  
Quick, to the Rodman mobile!  There's work to be done!
 
2013-04-03 08:21:15 AM  

awalkingecho: Anyone think there's an off-chance that they used some of those undiscovered tunnels we suspect to exist to cart a few of Dear Eater's Illustrious Kaboom Machines through and position someplace under Seoul as a fail-deadly?

Not that I'm suggesting that I think so, but I'm entertaining the thought.


I'd put it at 5% or so...very low probability, but not impossible, and not low enough to ignore completely.  Kind of like the "put a nuke on a boat" option.

SK has to monitor for NK incursion tunnels anyway, for conventional assaults, so worrying about nukes in them isn't much of an added burden, I'd think.
 
2013-04-03 08:22:25 AM  

Silverstaff: Korea: Tie . . .only on the grounds we didn't want to escalate to WW III, which is what winning would have required due to Chinese intervention.


Actually, I put Korea in the "Win" category.

Why?

Because at the end of the day, we prevented the North from taking over the entire peninsula, and forced them to accept pretty much the pre-war border.

That doesn't sound like a tie to me.  That sounds more like a "You tried to take over the whole thing, and you *FAILED*".
 
2013-04-03 08:29:28 AM  

Asa Phelps: An attack from the DPRK would hurt, and be expensive to clean up.

But it would also essentially signal the end of the DPRK.

What good is a standing army of 1.5 million men without trucks to transport or supply them, let alone supplies to load onto those truck to feed them?

One carefully placed FAE would put an end to any morale that north korean foot soldiers have.

And then south korea and china will have to deal with an unbelievable influx of refugees.


"Walk south, shoot anything that moves, and take the food the capitalist oppressors stole from you."

And morale is a fickle thing...SOUTH Korea might break under a sufficiently large human-wave type attack, if it gets enough traction, or assassination teams decapitate enough of the government...allied strategy revolves around containing an NK push, and then winning in the counter-attack.

Defense-in-depth is a fine idea, but there's not all that much depth between Seoul and the DMZ.

The point is, you just don't know until the bullets actually start flying.
 
2013-04-03 08:32:54 AM  

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: bluorangefyre: OK explain this in simple terms:  WOPR level bad or Cuban Missile Crisis bad?  Or will this thing be over just as soon as we bomb Pyongyang and release the vipers at the DMZ?

This would not be a boots-on-the-ground war, at least not many American boots.  Our air superiority would wipe out all of their command-and-control on day one, then the SK army goes in to maintain order.  Very few American lives at risk.


That's the plan.

Problem is, it doesn't take all that much command-and-control to say "march south, stop when you hit ocean, and we'll shoot you for treason if you retreat."
 
2013-04-03 08:36:11 AM  

PunGent: Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: bluorangefyre: OK explain this in simple terms:  WOPR level bad or Cuban Missile Crisis bad?  Or will this thing be over just as soon as we bomb Pyongyang and release the vipers at the DMZ?

This would not be a boots-on-the-ground war, at least not many American boots.  Our air superiority would wipe out all of their command-and-control on day one, then the SK army goes in to maintain order.  Very few American lives at risk.

That's the plan.

Problem is, it doesn't take all that much command-and-control to say "march south, stop when you hit ocean, and we'll shoot you for treason if you retreat."


At that point, you're not dealing with a coherent military structure, but essentially independent armed mobs.  Something like that can be defeated in detail.
 
2013-04-03 08:40:03 AM  

Gyrfalcon: meat0918: jpo2269: Sadly, it seems as if Un is hell bent on getting his arse kicked.  Hopefully he wakes up prior to crossing the line of no return... Unfortunately I am not very optimistic.

Maybe that's the point.

Maybe he doesn't want to be Dear Leader, but the real powers in the country need their figure head to continue to live like kings.

I've been saying that since the start. About the only way Kim can stop being Son of Dear Leader AND still keep his fat head on his mushy neck AND not have to worry about any prison time anywhere in the Far East is to lose a war to America.

As it stands, Kim Jong-Un is not personally responsible for any of the myriad atrocities Daddy Dearest committed; but he IS under the thumbs of a whole lot of guys who are (the generals and career pols who Daddy put in power). If Kim tries to undo the sins of the former regime and repudiate Juche, the generals can easily arrange for him to have a tragic accident, a lavish state funeral, and replace him with some handy puppet (Kim has two other legitimate brothers, and who knows how many bastard Kims are waiting in the wings). OTOH, if the generals get too uppity, Kim can threaten them with The Hague's courts--but to do that, he'd have to lose a war.

Kim may be a fat retarded mushroom; but he did go to school in Switzerland, he has to know there is no way in hell he can survive a war even with S. Korea and Japan, much less China or America. ...


I would hope so...but I've met some truly abysmally ignorant folks who'd been to good schools, and had the advantage of international travel.  It didn't help.

Let's just say it's possible Kim didn't get in on his own merits :)

I think it was Horace who said 'men cross the seas, but do not change their natures'.
 
2013-04-03 08:40:10 AM  

Benevolent Misanthrope: Korea?
Vietnam?
Somalia?
Iraq?
Afghanistan?

I didn't say we NEVER win (you could bring up Grenada, too, that hard-fought battle against a seemingly invincible enemy).  I said we aren't known for it.


Yeah, but a conflict with North Korea would, at least initially, be state-on-state, military-on-military, which we are EXCEEDINGLY good at. So long as we leave it to the Koreans and the Chinese to handle the aftermath on the ground, and limit our involvement to protecting our allies and ourselves, then I'm confident the US military could utterly destory the North Korean military.
 
2013-04-03 08:41:44 AM  

2wolves: yagottabefarkinkiddinme: Doglover:

I don't know. What I do know is that photo. That photo is as powerful as the Vietnam photos of the officer pulling the trigger and the girl that had the skin falling off of her... Or the Nazi concentration camp photos in WWII.

This is the photo to show America that there is a humanitarian reason to end the status quo in NK to justify action. Not only does NK try to bully the United States, NK bullies their own children.

The world should speak to NK in a united voice. Now. Right the fark now.

How about the U.S. make sure its own aren't dying of starvation first?

/just a thought


???

Did ANYONE, aside from a stranded hiker or two, actually starve to death here in the last year?
 
2013-04-03 08:49:37 AM  

dittybopper: PunGent: Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: bluorangefyre: OK explain this in simple terms:  WOPR level bad or Cuban Missile Crisis bad?  Or will this thing be over just as soon as we bomb Pyongyang and release the vipers at the DMZ?

This would not be a boots-on-the-ground war, at least not many American boots.  Our air superiority would wipe out all of their command-and-control on day one, then the SK army goes in to maintain order.  Very few American lives at risk.

That's the plan.

Problem is, it doesn't take all that much command-and-control to say "march south, stop when you hit ocean, and we'll shoot you for treason if you retreat."

At that point, you're not dealing with a coherent military structure, but essentially independent armed mobs.  Something like that can be defeated in detail.


Absolutely.  But a million or so guys is a LOT of 'detail'.

It's the old Soviet strategy...quantity has a quality all it's own.

Yes, we could, and probably would win, but I think it could well be MUCH more costly than some of the Pollyanna scenarios I see thrown around here.

To be clear, IF the balloon goes up, I'd LOVE to be wrong.  Best case, a few days of fighting, then the NKs say "screw this" and start killing their own officers, then marching north to shove a bayonet up Kim's ass.  Followed by happy peaceful reunification for all.

Unfortunately, I think the outcome will be...less salubrious.
 
2013-04-03 08:50:44 AM  
I keep hearing this brought up: "KJU went to school in Switzerland, so he probably knows what's really up."

We don't know that. We don't know anything about him. It's quite possible for the son of a paranoid dictator to have an extremely sheltered, controlled experience at a secluded private Swiss boarding school where he was probably constantly watched by NK agents. We have no idea what, if any, media or Western ideas he was exposed do.  No one has come out and given an interview and said, "yeah I went to school with him, and he was a pretty cool bloke and we'd take the train to Amsterdam on the weekends and drop acid."
 
2013-04-03 08:51:46 AM  
Those were not my words... They got mixed in with doglover's comment.
 
2013-04-03 08:52:07 AM  
What I hope someone in NK realizes, before a lot of innocent people get killed, is while their ability to wage war has increased incrementally since 1950, ours has increased exponentially. This wouldn't be a counterinsurgency brush war, this would be a force on force repulsion of a mechanized assault, something we've been practicing for the last 60 years

sensor fuzed weapon, one B1 can carry 30 of these
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5-OH2ZGXec

M-134 minigun, good luck with those "human wave" attacks
upload.wikimedia.org

www.airforceworld.com

static4.businessinsider.com
 
2013-04-03 08:54:41 AM  
NK will never get investor capital again if they use this as leverage. This move will seal their eventual fate.
 
2013-04-03 09:11:02 AM  

Evil Twin Skippy: All Arleigh Burkes AND all of the Ticonderoga Class cruisers have Aegis. The superstructure and electrical systems of both classes of ship are built around the radar array. It's just a question of which version of Aegis is installed. The Cruisers have the more powerful platform. The Destroyers tend to have the more up-to-date block upgrades.

Not all of the Ticonderoga class cruisers were built with the Vertical Launch System (VLS). Those that weren't have since been retired. The Navy actually refers to the remaining cruisers as CG-52 (Bunker Hill) class. That may be what people are confusing the issue with.


Doh.  Forgot that those were retired/scrapped a few years back.
 
2013-04-03 09:12:57 AM  

Cthulhu_is_my_homeboy: Essentially in the constitutional monarchy, the monarch continues to "be" the state, but the right to rule derives from the authority of the constitution and/or the consent of the people, rather than divine right/right of conquest.

3.bp.blogspot.com

 
2013-04-03 09:19:18 AM  

Benevolent Misanthrope: Just Another OC Homeless Guy: Benevolent Misanthrope: ontariolightning: BolloxReader: Weren't there people saying that as long as this complex was going, there wasn't anything to worry about?
I think the game just got interesting.

meh. They've closed it down multiple times before.

Yeah, this.  The North Koreans are assholes, but they're not suicidal.  They'll just continue to bluster and threaten, like a bully in an empty schoolyard.  But also like a bully, they won't throw a punch against anyone who could ever possibly fight back.

I do wonder, though - if they did attack South Korea, what would happen?  Judging by our wars since WII, the U.S. isn't exactly known for winning.  My guess is we'd declare war and then try not to hurt anyone.  Again.

SK would take a whole bunch of hurt, then rally and clean the NK clock.

Just like the last time?


Benevolent Misanthrope: Just Another OC Homeless Guy: Benevolent Misanthrope: ontariolightning: BolloxReader: Weren't there people saying that as long as this complex was going, there wasn't anything to worry about?
I think the game just got interesting.

meh. They've closed it down multiple times before.

Yeah, this.  The North Koreans are assholes, but they're not suicidal.  They'll just continue to bluster and threaten, like a bully in an empty schoolyard.  But also like a bully, they won't throw a punch against anyone who could ever possibly fight back.

I do wonder, though - if they did attack South Korea, what would happen?  Judging by our wars since WII, the U.S. isn't exactly known for winning.  My guess is we'd declare war and then try not to hurt anyone.  Again.

SK would take a whole bunch of hurt, then rally and clean the NK clock.

Just like the last time?


No.

History - it's interesting.
 
2013-04-03 09:22:25 AM  
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Wait...  This might not be a bad idea.  The US gets cheap Chinese labor, the Chinese get employment without building more empty skyscrapers, the South Koreans get a kind-of reunified peninsula (minus all those the Chinese need to borrow), North Korea gets rebuilt from scratch, and if we really want to we can tack on a good 5-10 year war with China to thin out the ranks of healthy young males on both sides and get the economy out of this funk.

Since I'm over 30, I'm not sure if this is a terrible idea or a good one.



You know, this is probably the first time I heard that point of view discussed outside of me bringing it up. Somehow for us >30 males that would be a sure-fire way to have steady, high-pay employment if it happened. But do we really want to risk the lives of the late-commers to our generation and most of the next just so we could be 'set' so to speak?

At first, I was all for a bit of war-mongering. As a species we can't seem to want to kill ourselves off, so I say let us. But then you think of all the peace-time achievements and how we proliferate through the better years that makes you judge the constant war chants in a different light. It would be swell if we could all get along, but as they say on Fark;- get off my lawn! If we can't get past something so benign and utter threats for the least of personal inconvenience, why should it be different on word-stage?

Hmpf, now I don't know what's best again, thanks bud!

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2013-04-03 09:28:10 AM  

PunGent: That's the plan.

Problem is, it doesn't take all that much command-and-control to say "march south, stop when you hit ocean, and we'll shoot you for treason if you retreat."


I don't think that's the plan. I think the plan would be for a UN charter allowing the obliteration of NK forces, mostly through US air superiority and Naval forces, with SK along for the ride and then China mobilizing forces to come in under UN Charter to 'peace keep' the situation.

Reunification to follow in 30 years.
 
2013-04-03 09:29:12 AM  

PunGent: dittybopper: PunGent: Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: bluorangefyre: OK explain this in simple terms:  WOPR level bad or Cuban Missile Crisis bad?  Or will this thing be over just as soon as we bomb Pyongyang and release the vipers at the DMZ?

This would not be a boots-on-the-ground war, at least not many American boots.  Our air superiority would wipe out all of their command-and-control on day one, then the SK army goes in to maintain order.  Very few American lives at risk.

That's the plan.

Problem is, it doesn't take all that much command-and-control to say "march south, stop when you hit ocean, and we'll shoot you for treason if you retreat."

At that point, you're not dealing with a coherent military structure, but essentially independent armed mobs.  Something like that can be defeated in detail.

Absolutely.  But a million or so guys is a LOT of 'detail'.

It's the old Soviet strategy...quantity has a quality all it's own.

Yes, we could, and probably would win, but I think it could well be MUCH more costly than some of the Pollyanna scenarios I see thrown around here.

To be clear, IF the balloon goes up, I'd LOVE to be wrong.  Best case, a few days of fighting, then the NKs say "screw this" and start killing their own officers, then marching north to shove a bayonet up Kim's ass.  Followed by happy peaceful reunification for all.

Unfortunately, I think the outcome will be...less salubrious.


Well, I don't think it would be "best case", but nor do I think it will be worse.  I can't really see the PRC siding with the DPRK if KJU really starts feeling his oats.  In fact, I can easily imagine a scenario where if the KPA goes south over the DMZ, the PLA will go south over the Yalu.

Even if that doesn't happen, the type of war the KPA *MUST* fight because of their equipment, training, doctrine, logistics, and the economic circumstances on the peninsula is precisely the type of war we've been training for for the last 60 or 70 years.  We have a rough parity of forces quantitatively, if you add in the ROK and US troops with available, but we've got an overwhelming qualitative advantage.

A while back I took a look at the much bally-hooed amount of artillery the DPRK has on the border.   It's not as bad as the bare numbers might suggest.

The only way they could significantly hamper US/ROK operations is through guerrilla warfare, but that is destined to fail, and fail badly if they depend on it, because the South Koreans aren't going to help them, and will rat them out at the earliest opportunity.   Just ask Che Guevara how hard it is to mount a guerrilla campaign unsupported by the locals.  In fact, that's what lead to the downfall of Al Qaeda in Iraq:  We didn't really defeat them in a military sense, we co-opted the local leaders against them.

That would happen immediately in South Korea, though, instead of a few years down the road:  They know what economic ruin would come from being ruled by Pyongyang, and they know what the political oppression is like across the border.  KPA guerrilla units will have to avoid all contact with locals, because otherwise the locals will call up the local equivalent of 911 on their cell phones and rat out the KPA units immediately.
 
2013-04-03 09:29:31 AM  
The Great Successor has a perfect plan. He will ratchet up the rhetoric until the U.S. feels it has no choice but to go in and kick his ass. At that point the DPRK will surrender and ask for billions in foreign aid to rebuild their country. And they will get it.
 
2013-04-03 09:33:36 AM  

Deep Contact: [www.abc.net.au image 700x467]
My uncle killed thousands of Chinese. They would just keep marching on their machine gun positions.
The dead would be stacked 6' high at some points. But at night the Chinese would move in and take the dead away.



Seems like that would have been the time to launch the assault.
 
2013-04-03 09:36:19 AM  
rlv.zcache.com
 
2013-04-03 09:38:01 AM  
Wtf's with the JavaScript?
 
2013-04-03 09:38:28 AM  

dittybopper: The only way they could significantly hamper US/ROK operations is through guerrilla warfare, but that is destined to fail, and fail badly if they depend on it, because the South Koreans aren't going to help them, and will rat them out at the earliest opportunity. Just ask Che Guevara how hard it is to mount a guerrilla campaign unsupported by the locals. In fact, that's what lead to the downfall of Al Qaeda in Iraq: We didn't really defeat them in a military sense, we co-opted the local leaders against them.


I tend to think that this is one of those rare moments where whoever steps in and flattens NK military would actually be welcomed as liberators by the civilian population.
 
2013-04-03 09:48:53 AM  

BolloxReader: Weren't there people saying that as long as this complex was going, there wasn't anything to worry about?
I think the game just got interesting.


When they actually do make moves to permanently close it down, that would be a bad sign.  Being a dick at the border crossing for a short period of time, meh.  If they rip the road up so ROK and American armor can't advance up it, I'd start to worry.  Some Nork holding a stop sign, not so much.

I'd imagine South Korean companies are losing X dollars per day since they can't make widgets in Kaesong.   So the North will shut the complex down and try to get Y dollars in food aid as a bribe to reopen the plant.  Or else try to get some of the companies to deposit money into some Swiss bank account slush fund for the North, supposedly the North really needs hard foreign currency these days.
 
2013-04-03 10:03:00 AM  

MyKingdomForYourHorse: dittybopper: The only way they could significantly hamper US/ROK operations is through guerrilla warfare, but that is destined to fail, and fail badly if they depend on it, because the South Koreans aren't going to help them, and will rat them out at the earliest opportunity. Just ask Che Guevara how hard it is to mount a guerrilla campaign unsupported by the locals. In fact, that's what lead to the downfall of Al Qaeda in Iraq: We didn't really defeat them in a military sense, we co-opted the local leaders against them.

I tend to think that this is one of those rare moments where whoever steps in and flattens NK military would actually be welcomed as liberators by the civilian population.


Well, I was thinking of it in terms of DPRK units south of the DMZ.

As for being welcomed as liberators?  I'm less optimistic than you.  It's almost a cliche that you don't intervene between a man beating his wife because they will *BOTH* be against you.

Consider this:  You've been raised to believe X.  It was taught in all the schools, it was in all the media you ever saw, and it was repeated by everyone around you.  No alternatives were ever mentioned except in the context of being evil.  You fear anything else, to the point where it's a reflex to believe X.

Then, all of a sudden, after a short but bloody war that killed friends and relatives, you're now told that X is a complete lie by strangers who don't look or talk like you.  You don't see any real evidence of this, though:  You still live in the same valley as before, tending the same fields.  What are you going to believe?
 
2013-04-03 10:18:49 AM  

dittybopper: Then, all of a sudden, after a short but bloody war that killed friends and relatives, you're now told that X is a complete lie by strangers who don't look or talk like you. You don't see any real evidence of this, though: You still live in the same valley as before, tending the same fields. What are you going to believe?


Except this time the one telling you something different comes bearing gifts of food, something you haven't seen in regular supply for 30 years.

The dinner table has a funny way of changing peoples hearts and minds
 
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