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(USA Today)   The odds of filling out a perfect NCAA bracket is 9.2 quintillion to one, or about the same as Albany winning the national title   (usatoday.com) divider line 56
    More: Interesting, perfect NCAA, SSTs, NCAA  
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893 clicks; posted to Geek » on 21 Mar 2013 at 7:19 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-03-21 07:22:01 AM
In about 20 years of filling out brackets, I've gotten the first day 100% twice, and the second day almost perfect one of those times.  Every other year the sheet is a crumpled ball by late Thursday.
 
2013-03-21 07:30:02 AM
Sandbox.com presents It's Madness! Win $100 million for filling out a perfect bracket!

Ah, dot-com lunacy.
 
2013-03-21 07:34:29 AM
If you haven't joined one yet, I just created a Fark bracket group on Yahoo!

http://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/t1/group/212624/join?P=fea tu redpartner

Group: Farkers 2013
ID: 212624
Password: FeaturedPartner

Submit a bracket before Noon Eastern if you want to play.
 
2013-03-21 07:37:10 AM
That number is based on random guessing, it's like saying there's a 50/50 shot of the Miami Heat beating the Charlotte Bobcats, or a 50/50 chance of Kate Upton choosing me over Brad Pitt.
 
2013-03-21 07:37:35 AM
And yet it it inevitably Janice from Accounts Receivable that does this.  Her system?  Jersey colors and mascots.
 
2013-03-21 07:46:48 AM
So you're saying the key is to pick Albany to go all the way?
 
2013-03-21 07:50:02 AM
The important thing is that there is still a chance.
 
2013-03-21 08:01:22 AM
In Albany
...getting a kick, etc...
 
2013-03-21 08:08:04 AM
I pick UK to win it all.
 
2013-03-21 08:18:12 AM
Never tell me the odds.
 
2013-03-21 08:23:23 AM
So you're telling me there's a chance?
 
2013-03-21 08:28:01 AM

MayoSlather: That number is based on random guessing, it's like saying there's a 50/50 shot of the Miami Heat beating the Charlotte Bobcats, or a 50/50 chance of Kate Upton choosing me over Brad Pitt.


That's pretty much what I came in here to say - by that same logic half the brackets filled out would have ALL #1 seeds losing their first game - something that has never happened even once.

Turn in a bracket (that you paid for) will all #1's losing in the first round and your friends are likely to have you committed.
 
2013-03-21 08:37:49 AM
 
2013-03-21 08:42:33 AM
Last chance for the Fark Consolation Bracket...

http://y.ahoo.it/bUH11ld5

//Was there ever an official?
 
2013-03-21 08:44:43 AM
So you're saying there's a chance!
i56.photobucket.com
 
2013-03-21 08:45:35 AM

italie: Last chance for the Fark Consolation Bracket...

http://y.ahoo.it/bUH11ld5

//Was there ever an official?


more brackets, more fun
 
2013-03-21 08:49:13 AM
Those numbers assume that every team has an equal chance of winning each game.  That is factually false.

Lousville is a 200-1 favorite to win their game today.

Gonzaga is 100-1

Syracuse is 10-1

It's not the same as assigning each team to a coinflilp.
 
2013-03-21 08:53:30 AM
I refuse to consider any bracket perfect that does not go 67-for-67.
 
2013-03-21 09:07:13 AM
If you take out unlikely events like a 16 beating a 1, etc., it comes down to something like 9 trillion to one. Now those are odds we can deal with.
 
2013-03-21 09:11:17 AM
A more practical stat is that the better team will lose 20% of the time. So you're dealing with 80/20 instead of 50/50. It's still hard to pick a perfect bracket.
 
2013-03-21 09:19:46 AM

PredDawg8: I refuse to consider any bracket perfect that does not go 67-for-67.


See, this is what I've been saying since we went 68. Boise State had no chance to beat KSU I don't think, but LaSalle I believe probably will beat KSU.
 
2013-03-21 09:35:25 AM

Crewmannumber6: So you're saying there's a chance!
[i56.photobucket.com image 500x333]


Yeah, came for that...
 
2013-03-21 09:45:03 AM

pkellmey: If you take out unlikely events like a 16 beating a 1, etc., it comes down to something like 9 trillion to one. Now those are odds we can deal with.


I would surmise that if you took an actual in depth look at historical patterns, health, size, quality of opponents, location of games, and individual match ups, and created a formula off that info you could probably nail it down to 100 to 1 or better.
 
2013-03-21 09:52:00 AM
I don't want the attention that comes with it, so I intentionally picked Gonzaga to win it all
 
2013-03-21 09:56:30 AM
Duke sucks

//that is all
 
2013-03-21 09:59:48 AM
Wouldn't that only be true if the winner of each game was determined randomly?
 
2013-03-21 10:10:43 AM

thecpt: NEVER TELL ME THE ODDS

/also, this seems to be the fark bracket

http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/en/group?group ID =117626&entryID=6133331


when I clicked to check how many people joined it said there was a limit of 32 people but when I removed the entry's limit it went away so I think it's cool to join if more people want to join.
 
2013-03-21 10:22:09 AM

MayoSlather: pkellmey: If you take out unlikely events like a 16 beating a 1, etc., it comes down to something like 9 trillion to one. Now those are odds we can deal with.

I would surmise that if you took an actual in depth look at historical patterns, health, size, quality of opponents, location of games, and individual match ups, and created a formula off that info you could probably nail it down to 100 to 1 or better.


If you could, no one at all would offer Million Dollar Brackets. Even if you get every game as an 80-20 favorite, which is wildly unrealistic, you're still looking at odds worse than 1 in a million.

thecpt: NEVER TELL ME THE ODDS

/also, this seems to be the fark bracket

http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/en/group?group ID =117626&entryID=6133331


Oh goddammit, I always forget at least one group, and I wind up at school Thursday morning unable to join it (games.espn.go.com is blocked). If the group is unlocked (i.e. I can join tonight), I will, otherwise I'll just post a link to my bracket when I get home.
 
2013-03-21 10:23:16 AM
Came for a bunch of nerds pointing out the faulty math, leaving satisfied.

/is a nerd
 
2013-03-21 10:37:18 AM
Albany only needs to win one game to be champions in the hearts of us all.
 
2013-03-21 10:40:10 AM

Yanks_RSJ: Albany only needs to win one game to be champions in the hearts of us all.


kentucky fans would name their first born Al if it occurred.
 
2013-03-21 10:56:31 AM

MayoSlather: That number is based on random guessing, it's like saying there's a 50/50 shot of the Miami Heat beating the Charlotte Bobcats, or a 50/50 chance of Kate Upton choosing me over Brad Pitt.


This
 
2013-03-21 11:01:58 AM

thecpt: NEVER TELL ME THE ODDS

/also, this seems to be the fark bracket

http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/en/group?group ID =117626&entryID=6133331


Thanks. Every single pick of mine is infallible this year, I knows it. Good luck, my chummmmmmmmmmmmps.
 
2013-03-21 11:08:38 AM
My fool-proof method is pick the favorites in almost all games.  Have two 8s win and two 9's win.  Then randomly pick some upsets...have a 14 beat a three...etc.  I've actually won a few times in my office.
 
2013-03-21 11:17:17 AM
Upset Pick Sure to Go Wrong:

Ole Miss over Wisconsin.
 
2013-03-21 11:20:21 AM

MayoSlather: pkellmey: If you take out unlikely events like a 16 beating a 1, etc., it comes down to something like 9 trillion to one. Now those are odds we can deal with.

I would surmise that if you took an actual in depth look at historical patterns, health, size, quality of opponents, location of games, and individual match ups, and created a formula off that info you could probably nail it down to 100 to 1 or better.


That reminds me of this.
 
2013-03-21 11:27:01 AM
I did the official yahoo brackets for the last few years with TotalFark subscription prizes, but didn't get greenlit this time. Anyway, the link is :  http://y.ahoo.it/0v0W6GNy
 
2013-03-21 12:00:40 PM
Effectively random bracket. Bring it on :)
 
2013-03-21 12:03:46 PM
So is this the March Madness Day 1 thread?
 
2013-03-21 12:04:12 PM
Barkley, on the broadcast: "I think the #1 seeds are the best teams". Thank you, Captain Obvious.
 
2013-03-21 12:13:28 PM

Fizpez: MayoSlather: That number is based on random guessing, it's like saying there's a 50/50 shot of the Miami Heat beating the Charlotte Bobcats, or a 50/50 chance of Kate Upton choosing me over Brad Pitt.

That's pretty much what I came in here to say - by that same logic half the brackets filled out would have ALL #1 seeds losing their first game - something that has never happened even once.

Turn in a bracket (that you paid for) will all #1's losing in the first round and your friends are likely to have you committed.


True, except for the fact that upsets knock out a disproportionate number of people. For example, when Duke lost to Lehigh last year, a 15 seed beating a 1 seed, probably about 99% of brackets were prevented from being perfect.

So sure, it's easy to say the odds are better because not every game is a coin flip, but that can also work against you.
 
2013-03-21 12:14:54 PM

Supes: True, except for the fact that upsets knock out a disproportionate number of people. For example, when Duke lost to Lehigh last year, a 15 seed beating a 1 seed 2 seed, probably about 99% of brackets were prevented from being perfect.


FTFM

/and let the games begin!
 
2013-03-21 12:17:54 PM
Even the announcers have a hard time keeping up the charade that the play-in games are really part of the tournament. "Let the games begin! ...er, actually, they started the other night..." -CBS guys at the tipoff of Sparty-Valpo.
 
2013-03-21 12:20:12 PM

JayCab: Even the announcers have a hard time keeping up the charade that the play-in games are really part of the tournament. "Let the games begin! ...er, actually, they started the other night..." -CBS guys at the tipoff of Sparty-Valpo.


Key-ripes, that is some nonsense.
 
2013-03-21 12:22:52 PM
Not a pretty game so far.
 
2013-03-21 12:34:07 PM

jonathan_L: Not a pretty game so far.


Msu adjusting to non big ten officials. Val should be up by 6 though
 
2013-03-21 12:34:07 PM
Talk about building houses with bricks, both these teams...fugly.
 
2013-03-21 12:37:02 PM
so there's no official march madness thread?  that's farked up...
 
2013-03-21 12:39:09 PM
And msu figured out their defensive rotation. Game over Val, game over
 
2013-03-21 12:50:24 PM
Valpo looking like a decidedly dead duck.
 
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