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(The Atlantic)   Kentucky Democrats are afraid Ashley Judd really is running for the Senate. The Blue Devils may care   (theatlantic.com) divider line 63
    More: Interesting, Ashley Judd, Bluegrass State, Democrats, human beings, Steve Beshear, Northern Kentucky, Senate campaign, Judd-McConnell  
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2474 clicks; posted to Politics » on 13 Mar 2013 at 9:59 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



Voting Results (Smartest)
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Archived thread
2013-03-13 10:25:11 AM  
12 votes:
She almost certainly won't win.  Then again, neither will any other Democrat.  Judd, however, brings two advantages to the table (besides her fantastic tits).

1.  She'll raise a metric farkton of cash.   The GOP will have to spend a hell of a lot more money than they would otherwise just to hold a safe seat.  That's money they can't spend elsewhere on competitive races.

2.  Her name recognition means that the race will be a national story.  When some Kentucky state senator calls her a "Hollywood Whore" we'll have 2014's Todd Akin.  Some dumbass local level pol won't be able to help himself and he'll be yet another albatross to hang on the necks of Republicans all over the country.

In short, that seat is probably a lost cause.  McConnell only won it by 3 points last time around, but that was in 2006 when the Dems won everything.  If they couldn't wrest it away from him then they sure won't now.  Judd gives them some advantages nationally that they won't have with any other candidate.
2013-03-13 10:05:07 AM  
5 votes:
So, Kentucky Democrats, like the governor who is about to legalize religious discrimination and gave a huge tax break to the makers of the Bedrock Educational Park and Snake Oil Bottling Company, don't like Ashley Judd? She has my vote.

/And, if "Mama He's Crazy" isn't her campaign song, she isn't trying to win.
2013-03-13 12:45:22 PM  
3 votes:
As a Kentuckian, I now firmly believe she definitely has a chance.

First of all, she is a native Kentuckian and a UK alum and fan and believe me, she will get a LOT of mileage out of that alone, even in the rural areas.  Anybody that says otherwise is simply not familiar with the culture.  She also can take Louisville, since it has a strong Democrat contingent, not just with the unions (Ford and UPS are huge employers there) but also with the liberal contingents in the Highlands, Germantown, NuLu areas.  Also, having just moved out of KY a mere two months ago, I can tell you anti-Mitch sentiment is fairly strong, even with the derp crowd that probably wants a more Conservative candidate.

Louisville, and pretty much the rest of Kentucky is basically one huge small town.  We are kind to our own, and Ashley Judd being a famous, beautiful movie star who is pretty vocal about her Kentucky pride, this will help her tremendously.

Will she win?  That I cannot say, but Mitch has a fight in his hands for sure.  Even if he attacks her for her stance on coal, she can easily, easily point to a place like Prestonsburg.  Coal mining town, sucked dry by the coal industry and pretty much left to farking die.  Most depressing place I've ever been to.  It's basically a ghost town, with most of its population living in the trailer parks in the surrounding mountains, getting by living below poverty level.  It's farking miserable.
2013-03-13 11:10:27 AM  
3 votes:

HMS_Blinkin: verbaltoxin: If anything it's an extension of the Obama Era of Democratic politics. The art of politics as trolling.

That's about all that CAN be done, since the whole country is gerrymandered within an inch of its life.  Unfortunately, elections just don't matter as much as the money that goes into them anymore.


It's a recycling of 2012 when you look at it: the GOP dumped billions into SuperPACs, ignored math, and lost. They learned nothing. So let's get the actress to run in Kentucky and make them do it again.
2013-03-13 10:40:21 AM  
3 votes:
"She's gonna have a tough row to hoe," said Jim Cauley, who ran Governor Steve Beshear's 2007 campaign and also worked on President Obama's 2004 Senate campaign. "She doesn't fit the damn state. That's her problem. I don't think she fits the voters of the state of Kentucky."

This is true. She is not a hick-ass farmer talking about hoeing rows. She does not fit the state because she is not obese or racist, and, worst of all, she is a woman with strong personal belief which flies in the face of the "men wear the pants" attitude the south is renown for.

Uphill battle? Sure. But running regressive candidates just so you can win is not progress.
2013-03-13 01:17:12 PM  
2 votes:

max_pooper: Lord_Baull: pointblank79: Once you get out into the state, though - she's going to lose, and lose big.  Like 70/30 big.  Outside of the more urban areas, Kentucky is about as red as it gets.  Her path to victory is to try to absolutely crush McConnell in the Lexington/Louisville areas.

How much bigger do you think the rural population is vs. urban?

Per the 2010 Census:
58% - Metropolitan
19% - Micropolitan*
23% - Urban

*Micropolitan is defined as a city between 10,000 and 49,999 people. I don't know Kentucky that well but I would assume the demographics of rural areas and cities with less than 50,000 are probably pretty similar.

Source


That's... actually a terrible assessement to go by, from what I can tell.  It's tallying counties that share any tie whatsoever to the urban/metro regions and counting them in a block: "adjacent counties that have a high degree of social and economic integration."  But their notion of integration seems a little sketchy.

Example: Clark County.  Listed as metropolitan, defined there as tied to "a core urban area of 50,000 or more population," in this case Lexington.  Yes, it has a lot of economic ties to Lexington/Fayette: a lot of people in Clark county commute there, because that's where the jobs are.  So for the source's purposes, maybe that makes sense.

But practically and politically speaking?  Winchester is a half-hour from Lexington on the main highway, separated by a whole lot of not much.  The county has a total population of around 35,000- and much of it is poor as dirt, conservative as hell, and once you're off the main highway you could just as easily be walking around an Eastern Kentucky subdivision (although the terrain's more level, and you're slightly more likely to see a real live black person there).
2013-03-13 01:11:54 PM  
2 votes:
Ah. Here it is.

As of December, McConnell was only leading Judd 47-43. That's absolutely a jumpable gap, especially this far out.
2013-03-13 11:41:35 AM  
2 votes:

Wasteland: Mentat: Oh good, Kentucky Blue Dog concern trolling.  How unexpected.

And unfortunately, they're also correct.


It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.  The Blue Dogs assume that any Democrat to the left of Genghis Khan has no chance of winning, so they set about sabotaging their own candidates for fear of being called liberal.  If you're a Democrat, even if you don't think your candidate has a chance, why in the fark out you put out comments like this that are tailor-made for Republican attack ads?  Why in the fark would you shoot your own candidate in the foot before she has even declared her candidacy?  Because these are idiot hand-wringing Blue Dogs and that's just what they do.  They're too afraid of their own shadows to actually stand with their party.
2013-03-13 11:18:59 AM  
2 votes:

Hebalo: Why should they worry? It's not like any of them would win the seat. Give the lady a chance.


This.  Ol' Mitch the Turtle is a pretty much juggernaut incumbent.  There hasn't been a credible threat to his re-election in a long, long time.

Yeah, Ashley Judd is pretty liberal with her politics, and Kentucky is a fairly red state.  BUT, Ashley Judd is also probably the only leftist that could get elected in Kentucky.  She's a well known local celebrity.  Probably the only celebrity with any interest in politics that could get elected here.

Yeah, she lives in Tennessee currently, but that's for professional reasons because of Nashville and her family being big in the country music business.  She's hardly a East Coast Liberal coming in as a stranger.  She was raised from a young age in Kentucky and is an alumni of the University of Kentucky. . .and long known to be a big fan of UK sports (frequently seen at UK basketball games, sometimes seen at the UK football games, and she did a very well known calendar/poster for UK hockey where she posed in a hockey jersey and nothing else).  She's got as much Kentucky cred as anybody else, and star power along with that.

Mitch is already spending six-figure sums to air ads in Kentucky trumpeting his record.  He's scared enough, 19 months out, to spend more on ads than your home cost.

In terms of qualifications, in addition to her Bachelors from UK, she's got a Master of Public Administration degree from Harvard, and has been politically active for years, on everything from international issues (she's done humanitarian missions to Africa about the AIDS epidemic) to local (she's an outspoken opponent of mountaintop removal coal mining, which is a big issue in Eastern Kentucky).

Ashley Judd is the Democrats best chance to take Mitch's seat.
2013-03-13 11:11:31 AM  
2 votes:
Don't be so certain that Ashley Judd would have no chance of winning. It's entirely possible McConnell is going to get primaried (there have been rumblings) and have to spend a shiat-pot of money to retain the nomination.  And if history is our guide, it's not outside the realm of possibility that McConnell could get primaried and lose to a bat-shiat crazy Angle/O'Donnell/Akin/Mordock teabagger, which with her likely fundraising abilities could put the seat in play.

Granted, it's quite the uphill battle, but it's not impossible.
2013-03-13 10:38:56 AM  
2 votes:

EyeballKid: So, Kentucky Democrats, like the governor who is about to legalize religious discrimination and gave a huge tax break to the makers of the Bedrock Educational Park and Snake Oil Bottling Company, don't like Ashley Judd? She has my vote.


This; Kentucky Dems are worried because if she were to run, A LOT of outside money would be coming her way and not necessarily theirs.

/And, if "Mama He's Crazy" isn't her campaign song, she isn't trying to win.

That and I hope she runs a "What do I have to lose?" style of campaign that bewilders Republicans in and out of the state.

/Not that hard to do but...
//Republicans having kittens over her campaign would warm the cockles of my heart.
2013-03-13 10:37:55 AM  
2 votes:
"Electing Ashley Judd gets a Republican Legislature elected. That's what I see at stake here. Your perspective is different if you're in New York or Los Angeles. They don't live here. We do. Judd's candidacy makes it seamlessly easy to Obama-ize this election," one Kentucky Democratic strategist said.

F*ck you right in your blue dog ass. Stand by your President. Own the sh*t he's fought lunatics to get accomplished.

This sh*t right here, people. That's why Democrats are considered wimps.
2013-03-13 10:30:05 AM  
2 votes:
Last night on Bill O'Reilly, he obliquely implied that her womanly duty was to produce children, and if she wants to adopt she should get on with it.

This is the same jackass who gave Bristol Palin a pass for birthing a bastard because he agreed with her mom's politics.
2013-03-13 10:15:47 AM  
2 votes:
Oh good, Kentucky Blue Dog concern trolling.  How unexpected.
2013-03-14 02:12:49 AM  
1 votes:

Mithiwithi: I think it's telling that all shotglasss has is to jump up and down screaming "She's dumb! She's dumb! SHE'S DUMB!" at the top of his squeaky little voice, as if saying it would make it true. A common reaction from men who suspect a woman might be smarter than themselves.



Exactly.
2013-03-14 01:08:26 AM  
1 votes:
I think it's telling that all shotglasss has is to jump up and down screaming "She's dumb! She's dumb! SHE'S DUMB!" at the top of his squeaky little voice, as if saying it would make it true. A common reaction from men who suspect a woman might be smarter than themselves.
2013-03-13 10:46:41 PM  
1 votes:

shotglasss: max_pooper: shotglasss: Lord_Baull: shotglasss: She's So Dumb She MaUranus Is Huge!: She suffers from mental illness.

(If she runs, this will be the opposition's favorite canard.)

No , She's Just Extremely Dumb.


We were discussing Ashley Judd, not Victoria Jackson.

Right, Ashley Judd, the dumbest woman in Hollywood and Kentucky combined.

Your trolling is getting pretty pathetic.

Whatever. Moran.


Weak ass troll only getting weaker...
2013-03-13 09:51:54 PM  
1 votes:

shotglasss: Lord_Baull: shotglasss: She's So Dumb She MaUranus Is Huge!: She suffers from mental illness.

(If she runs, this will be the opposition's favorite canard.)

No , She's Just Extremely Dumb.


We were discussing Ashley Judd, not Victoria Jackson.

Right, Ashley Judd, the dumbest woman in Hollywood and Kentucky combined.


Your trolling is getting pretty pathetic.
2013-03-13 07:18:02 PM  
1 votes:
Here's Ashley's road to victory:

Win the Dem nomination.

McConnell gets primaried but barely squeaks out a win over the Tea Party Nut.

With lots of bruised feelings, the Tea Party Nut runs as an independent.

The Tea Party Nut siphons off enough right wing votes away from McConnell, allowing Ashley to win with only 40% of the vote.

This seems like a more likely scenario than a Tea Party Nut beating the Turtle in the primary then losing the election.
2013-03-13 06:30:08 PM  
1 votes:

carrion_luggage: Remember this gem?

"As an actor and woman who, at times, avails herself of the media, I am painfully aware of the conversation about women's bodies, and it frequently migrates to my own body. I know this, even though my personal practice is to ignore what is written about me. ...


Never saw or read it before, but you're right to call it a gem. A well written piece by a woman who seems to understand that deriving your self-worth from the media is a fool's game.

Makes me like her even more. I hope she runs -- I'll throw a few hundred toward her campaign.
2013-03-13 04:27:33 PM  
1 votes:

A Dark Evil Omen: carrion_luggage: Yeah, you BET I want thin-skinned Miss Puffy Face in the Senate!

Haha, you wrote this after reposting her op-ed. I guess, thanks for proving out her point for her?


Even if the Kentucky electorate was so vain that they were going to vote purely on aesthetics who would they pick?

This jowly turtle face:
solar.calfinder.com

Or this puffy face:
frisbeebookjournal.files.wordpress.com
2013-03-13 04:22:54 PM  
1 votes:

Sharksfan: I find it funny when people say she - or ANY candidate - doesn't have a chance.


Sharksfan: There's herp derrp everywhere that manages to get elected.


Yeah, but the reason people doubt her electability is that she's smart and successful.
2013-03-13 04:21:58 PM  
1 votes:

carrion_luggage: Yeah, you BET I want thin-skinned Miss Puffy Face in the Senate!


Haha, you wrote this after reposting her op-ed. I guess, thanks for proving out her point for her?
2013-03-13 04:21:15 PM  
1 votes:
I find it funny when people say she - or ANY candidate - doesn't have a chance.

Just in my lifetime we've seen Palin and Ross Perot on the national ticket.  Not to mention a number of unqualified/unlikely people in local/state/federal elections.

Hell, the local mayor in my town just closed his retail store and declared bankruptcy and the town council made a statement saying, in effect, that people shouldn't judge his mayor-ing ability based on his business ability...

There's herp derrp everywhere that manages to get elected.
2013-03-13 04:19:29 PM  
1 votes:

Dr Dreidel: carrion_luggage: Just someone please remind her to take the hook out of her lip before she starts speaking.

If you can't follow that, I suggest rereading some Berenstein Bears.

// was that a speech to a kindergarten class, a TED talk, remarks delivered before Congress, a presser, a college commencement speech; were they prepared remarks or extemporaneous (delivered off-the-cuff)?
// and no, I don't remember it


It was an op-ed and a very well written one at that.
2013-03-13 04:02:04 PM  
1 votes:

The Thoroughbred of Sin: shotglasss: She's So Dumb She MaUranus Is Huge!: She suffers from mental illness.

(If she runs, this will be the opposition's favorite canard.)

No , She's Just Extremely Dumb.

As someone pointed out just up thread the woman has earned a Masters Degree.  Unless you are holding a PhD you shouldnt be down talking her intelligence, and if you did have a PhD you would know how smart you have to be to earn a Masters Degree.

/hint only about 7% of the adult population has earned one.
//dont have one, couldnt afford the cost and grades weren't good enough for a free ride


Masters Degree from Harvard, not honorary...earned it.
2013-03-13 04:00:32 PM  
1 votes:

carrion_luggage: Just someone please remind her to take the hook out of her lip before she starts speaking.


If you can't follow that, I suggest rereading some Berenstein Bears.

// was that a speech to a kindergarten class, a TED talk, remarks delivered before Congress, a presser, a college commencement speech; were they prepared remarks or extemporaneous (delivered off-the-cuff)?
// and no, I don't remember it
2013-03-13 02:53:44 PM  
1 votes:
Oh this is going to be entertaining. I've got to wonder if the KY GOP will run horrible ads against her like they ran against Mongiardo ,seriously they compared how he looks to the 9-11 hijackers which is hilarious considering he was born in Hazard,Ky to italian parents. I kinda wish he would run against McConnell but that might be because I've met him and he actually listened to what I had to say even though I wasn't old enough to vote.

Zerochance: BarefootInTheFark: Pincy: Kentucky is farking retarded anyway.  They elected the turtle and Randian Paul as Senators after all.  Why would anyone want to be a part of that state?

Because it's beautiful here and we have good people. Despite the populace' propensity to vote against their best interests sometimes, we/they have good hearts. And bourbon. So you stay wherever you are and troll us, Pincy. We're fine without you.

Hell, being Liberal and Latino, I was at odds with 90% of the Kentucky, and I still miss it like crazy.


Our politics are farking stupid but for the most part the people are alright. Even in the little town I live in,London,where the county GOP runs everything and there are churches everywhere I haven't seen that much horrible behavior towards people of other races or gay people,not saying it doesn't happen just that it hasn't been constantly horrible. One of my favorite people in my apartment building is an openly gay atheist,he always has the best booze and is someone I can talk to about politics,and I haven't heard or seen anyone being an asshole towards him. I'm beginning to think that either the racist assholes are dying off or they've learned that majority of people don't go for that bullshiat so they keep it to themselves.
2013-03-13 02:47:40 PM  
1 votes:

shotglasss: She's So Dumb She MaUranus Is Huge!: She suffers from mental illness.

(If she runs, this will be the opposition's favorite canard.)

No , She's Just Extremely Dumb.



We were discussing Ashley Judd, not Victoria Jackson.
2013-03-13 02:44:20 PM  
1 votes:

max_pooper: Wasteland: max_pooper: Lord_Baull: pointblank79: Once you get out into the state, though - she's going to lose, and lose big.  Like 70/30 big.  Outside of the more urban areas, Kentucky is about as red as it gets.  Her path to victory is to try to absolutely crush McConnell in the Lexington/Louisville areas.

How much bigger do you think the rural population is vs. urban?

Per the 2010 Census:
58% - Metropolitan
19% - Micropolitan*
23% - Urban

*Micropolitan is defined as a city between 10,000 and 49,999 people. I don't know Kentucky that well but I would assume the demographics of rural areas and cities with less than 50,000 are probably pretty similar.

Source

That's... actually a terrible assessement to go by, from what I can tell.  It's tallying counties that share any tie whatsoever to the urban/metro regions and counting them in a block: "adjacent counties that have a high degree of social and economic integration."  But their notion of integration seems a little sketchy.

Example: Clark County.  Listed as metropolitan, defined there as tied to "a core urban area of 50,000 or more population," in this case Lexington.  Yes, it has a lot of economic ties to Lexington/Fayette: a lot of people in Clark county commute there, because that's where the jobs are.  So for the source's purposes, maybe that makes sense.

But practically and politically speaking?  Winchester is a half-hour from Lexington on the main highway, separated by a whole lot of not much.  The county has a total population of around 35,000- and much of it is poor as dirt, conservative as hell, and once you're off the main highway you could just as easily be walking around an Eastern Kentucky subdivision (although the terrain's more level, and you're slightly more likely to see a real live black person there).

Well it's the only published article I could find that broke down the population of Kentucky into percentages of urban and rural areas.


Basically, of the six congressional districts one is solidly blue (3rd in Louisville), one is blue-dog blue and currently Republican (6th in Lex) while the suburbs of Cincinnati (4th) are solidly red in a Catholic kind of way.
2013-03-13 02:30:07 PM  
1 votes:
"Electing Ashley Judd gets a Republican Legislature elected. That's what I see at stake here. Your perspective is different if you're in New York or Los Angeles. They don't live here. We do. Judd's candidacy makes it seamlessly easy to Obama-ize this election," one Kentucky Democratic strategist said.

What A stupid farking thing to say. Yeah, those terrible Obama things like winning the presidency twice, who the fark would want someone in the own political party to actually have a successful ground campaign and win an election despite the attempted disenfranchisement or minority voters? Heaven forbid a negro and a vaginal american hold high office. We can't have that. She also is of child bearing age, so you know she's still getting her monthlies, and what self respecting white male wants to hear about (or suffer through) the maniacal insanity that those of of the ovarian faction inflict upon this fragile earth of ours for up to 10 days a month.
2013-03-13 01:53:19 PM  
1 votes:

Pincy: Kentucky is farking retarded anyway.  They elected the turtle and Randian Paul as Senators after all.  Why would anyone want to be a part of that state?


Because it's beautiful here and we have good people. Despite the populace' propensity to vote against their best interests sometimes, we/they have good hearts. And bourbon. So you stay wherever you are and troll us, Pincy. We're fine without you.
2013-03-13 01:50:48 PM  
1 votes:

Frozboz: QueenMamaBee: 52 days til the Derby!!

Is it really that close?  Thunder should be just around the corner... this means winter is almost over :)


Slightly over a month, it's April 20. Keeneland opens April 5, Bluegrass Stakes on the 13th. I'm hoping for good weather this year. Or maybe freezing cold weather... it's fun to watch the "see and be seen" girls shivering in their sundresses when it's 30 degrees out
2013-03-13 01:44:16 PM  
1 votes:

tnpir: max_pooper: I think the move for Democrats is to try to get McConnell primaried by donating money to the looniest of derpster primary challengers and then donating money to Judd. She may lose but McConnell will no longer be minority leader and the derper moran will be a freshman senator with far less influence that McTurtle.

My only concern with that is when we end up with Ted Cruz 2.0.


Unfortunately, Ted Cruz 1.0 is no worse than Rand Paul 1.0 and we've already unlocked that "accomplishment".
2013-03-13 01:36:31 PM  
1 votes:

shotglasss: No , She's Just Extremely Dumb.


Look how concerned Republicans are that she might run. CONCERNED

Hope she does and Rove spends more money. McConnell will probably win but watching Republicans waste money is great.
2013-03-13 01:22:32 PM  
1 votes:

shotglasss: She's So Dumb She MaUranus Is Huge!: She suffers from mental illness.

(If she runs, this will be the opposition's favorite canard.)

No , She's Just Extremely Dumb.


$xxxxx says you've never even heard her speak.

\but we've seen your communiques, and know how f'ing stupid you are
2013-03-13 01:21:46 PM  
1 votes:

Krieghund: Shrugging Atlas: I'll admit I haven't been following this Judd thing all that closely, but has the woman given any indication at all she's interested in running by word or deed?

I keep seeing things like in TFA, "As she gets closer to an announcement."  Of what?  Running, not running?

If she truly wasn't interested in running, she could have ended the speculation with a single phone call.
Hell, she wouldn't even have needed to make the call, she could have had her agent release a statement.


I don't think her not ending the speculation has anything to do with whether or not she's running.  Even if she's not and never, ever intends to run, why put an end to all the bed wetting and money being spent by the GOP over the idea she is?  She's probably loving every minute of this.
2013-03-13 01:18:57 PM  
1 votes:

Lord_Baull: pointblank79: Once you get out into the state, though - she's going to lose, and lose big.  Like 70/30 big.  Outside of the more urban areas, Kentucky is about as red as it gets.  Her path to victory is to try to absolutely crush McConnell in the Lexington/Louisville areas.

How much bigger do you think the rural population is vs. urban?


Population of Kentucky: 4,380,000

Louisville metro: 1,440,000

Lexington metro: 472,000

There are no other cities in the state with populations more than 60,000.
2013-03-13 01:07:33 PM  
1 votes:
Not even one  picture of Ashely's Judds. The politics tab sucks.
2013-03-13 01:04:20 PM  
1 votes:

Lenny and Carl: She almost certainly won't win.  Then again, neither will any other Democrat.  Judd, however, brings two advantages to the table (besides her fantastic tits).

1.  She'll raise a metric farkton of cash.   The GOP will have to spend a hell of a lot more money than they would otherwise just to hold a safe seat.  That's money they can't spend elsewhere on competitive races.

2.  Her name recognition means that the race will be a national story.  When some Kentucky state senator calls her a "Hollywood Whore" we'll have 2014's Todd Akin.  Some dumbass local level pol won't be able to help himself and he'll be yet another albatross to hang on the necks of Republicans all over the country.

In short, that seat is probably a lost cause.  McConnell only won it by 3 points last time around, but that was in 2006 when the Dems won everything.  If they couldn't wrest it away from him then they sure won't now.  Judd gives them some advantages nationally that they won't have with any other candidate.


McConnell hasn't polled very much ahead of Judd in a head-to-head. Judd's in with a shout if she busts her ass and gets moving.
2013-03-13 01:02:33 PM  
1 votes:

redqueenmeg: What if Johnny Depp ran?


I'm not even gay but I'd vote for him after looking into his dreamy eyes.
2013-03-13 12:58:28 PM  
1 votes:

Uranus Is Huge!: She suffers from mental illness.

(If she runs, this will be the opposition's favorite canard.)


Meh.  I can easily see the McConnell camp overreaching with this, and shooting themselves in the foot.
2013-03-13 12:55:28 PM  
1 votes:

Lord_Baull: pointblank79: Once you get out into the state, though - she's going to lose, and lose big.  Like 70/30 big.  Outside of the more urban areas, Kentucky is about as red as it gets.  Her path to victory is to try to absolutely crush McConnell in the Lexington/Louisville areas.

How much bigger do you think the rural population is vs. urban?


Per the 2010 Census:
58% - Metropolitan
19% - Micropolitan*
23% - Urban

*Micropolitan is defined as a city between 10,000 and 49,999 people. I don't know Kentucky that well but I would assume the demographics of rural areas and cities with less than 50,000 are probably pretty similar.

Source
2013-03-13 12:24:21 PM  
1 votes:
What will happen is this:  She will almost certainly win Lexington.  She's a UK alum, one of the most visible UK fans around, a famous name, and Lexington is one of the two major blue strongholds in the state along with Louisville.  She'll probably win Louisville as well, although I can't imagine a UofL fan being thrilled about voting for her (yes, the basketball loyalties are that big of a deal here).  Once you get out into the state, though - she's going to lose, and lose big.  Like 70/30 big.  Outside of the more urban areas, Kentucky is about as red as it gets.  Her path to victory is to try to absolutely crush McConnell in the Lexington/Louisville areas.
2013-03-13 11:58:53 AM  
1 votes:

bronyaur1: SploogeTime: McConnell sucks. Ashley unqualified. BUT, I will take her stained blue panties with the UK insignia. I'd rather vote for Uncle Rukus.


She is not unqualified as far as I know. She is of the minimum age, an American citizen, and resides in the state. Those three things, plus getting oneself elected, are the only qualifications there are.


Well, technically she doesn't reside in the state yet.  Her sister Wynona bought her a farm in Tennessee back in the 90's, so she'd be closer to the rest of the family in Nashville.  She'd have to set up a residence in KY again to be eligible. . .but she could easily establish a residence in the Commonwealth inside of 24 hours if she wanted it.

In terms of broader job qualifications, as I'd noted, she's got a Master of Public Administration degree in Harvard, that's a graduate-level degree in being a public official.  She's got a long record of political activism on a variety of humanitarian and environmental causes.  She's clearly educated and well versed in issues not just related to national politics but Kentucky politics.

Compare that to Mitch, whose main credentials before his own political career was having a law degree and being in the US Army Reserve for 6 months during the Vietnam War before he got a medical discharge.
2013-03-13 11:51:15 AM  
1 votes:

Mentat: Wasteland: Mentat: Oh good, Kentucky Blue Dog concern trolling.  How unexpected.

And unfortunately, they're also correct.

It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.  The Blue Dogs assume that any Democrat to the left of Genghis Khan has no chance of winning, so they set about sabotaging their own candidates for fear of being called liberal.  If you're a Democrat, even if you don't think your candidate has a chance, why in the fark out you put out comments like this that are tailor-made for Republican attack ads?  Why in the fark would you shoot your own candidate in the foot before she has even declared her candidacy?  Because these are idiot hand-wringing Blue Dogs and that's just what they do.  They're too afraid of their own shadows to actually stand with their party.


I think it's that a Democrat in Kentucky is a Republican in Maryland. A Blue Dog Dem in KY is a TeaBagger in Los Angeles. The reason they're not raking her over the coals is that she's still a Democrat (yay partisanship!), but they hate filthy liberals every bit as much as Republicans do.

They have to be Democrats in an area that is Republican - so they're Republicans but for the name. Still largely anti-abortion, still not quite comfortable with gays, still not in favor of progressive taxation, still not fans of ObamACAre, still not envioronmentalists...you get it.

Ashley Judd is an actual Democrat (dare I say "liberal"?) running in KY. The Blue Dogs are scared that a Democrat might win and expose them for being toadies - "A Democrat can get elected here? I've wasted my life...". Like Ben Nelson, who had to retire rather than lose the next election; or Joe Lieberman who sore-losered his way to one last term.
2013-03-13 11:49:35 AM  
1 votes:

ZeroCorpse: I kind of hope she wins. It might be nice to have a Senator who everyone has seen naked.

Correction: Who anyone  wanted  to see naked.


Scott Brown wonders if you are excluding him for a reason
2013-03-13 11:44:45 AM  
1 votes:

SploogeTime: McConnell sucks. Ashley unqualified. BUT, I will take her stained blue panties with the UK insignia. I'd rather vote for Uncle Rukus.



She is not unqualified as far as I know. She is of the minimum age, an American citizen, and resides in the state. Those three things, plus getting oneself elected, are the only qualifications there are.
2013-03-13 11:27:39 AM  
1 votes:

Dr Dreidel: Wasteland: Recent polling suggests she also has better odds that Judd of knocking off the Turtle... assuming she's willing to run.

We're talking about an election that's still ~18 months away. 18 months out, 2008 was Hillary in a landslide (over 9iu11iani), so you'll forgive me if I don't entirely trust the polling just yet.

That said, I'd like to read some of that; got a link?


Quick summary:
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/287477-report-dscc- re -evaluating-judd

My view from ground level is this: the single biggest issue killing Dems in Kentucky is coal.  Yes, the state is genuinely rural and conservative rather than being gerrymandered that way; and yes, religion is a big issue.  But at the end of the day, what the voters here are actually responding to and voting over right now is economics.  The coal industry is faltering and people are scared to death.  Any strategy to unseat Mitch has to begin with an awareness of that.

Grimes is in a good position.  She's essentially a Clinton Democrat- and that's still fairly popular in the state.  She's not been in office long, so she doesn't have much of a legislative trail for both good and ill; but so far she seems to be loudly pushing economic expansion and diversification for the state... while quietly pushing along social issues that can be framed as freedom/rights expansions every chance she gets (which also neatly takes advantage of the recent pseudo-libertarian wave on the right around here, splitting the local right-wing).

No, she's not as far to the left as Judd.  But she may be as far to the left as you can get, and be elected statewide in Kentucky.  That's how you beat McConnell, and that's how you start making Dems more electable in the state again.
2013-03-13 11:17:40 AM  
1 votes:

barneyfifesbullet: Comedy gold.

Especially when she equates coal mining to rape. Hell, she equates everything to rape.


Except unlike the GOPs failure to understand female biology or human emotion whenever they mention rape, saying Mountain Top Removal is rape of the land is actually pretty much spot on. Plunder and despoliation (for instance of land) is actually one of the definitions of the word "rape".
2013-03-13 11:17:06 AM  
1 votes:

Wasteland: verbaltoxin: Wasteland: Mentat: Oh good, Kentucky Blue Dog concern trolling.  How unexpected.
And unfortunately, they're also correct.

When your state's Democrats are nearly indistinguishable from Republicans because of sh*t like this:
EyeballKid: So, Kentucky Democrats, like the governor who is about to legalize religious discrimination and gave a huge tax break to the makers of the Bedrock Educational Park and Snake Oil Bottling Company, don't like Ashley Judd? She has my vote.
You deserve to lose your majority.

The National DNC is aiming at either a stalemate, a small gain for Dems or small losses for the GOP in '14. They also want Sen. McConnell to bleed money to keep his seat. They want it to be a pyrrhic victory for him. There simply isn't going to be a big sweep in Congress coming soon. So Democrats have to play the "death of a thousand little cuts" game. They see the splitting happening within the Republican Party and want to foment it.
If anything it's an extension of the Obama Era of Democratic politics. The art of politics as trolling.

So the solution to many of the state's Democrats being indistinguishable from Republicans elsewhere is...  to push it further to the right for the good of the national party.  Lovely.


To force the party to turn on itself in regional squabbling, distracting it further from a national agenda.

What do you think was the biggest byproduct of the 2012 election? We're seeing it now. Republicans can't even make up their minds on whether to crow about the sequester, or disown it. They promised a battle over the debt ceiling limit this February. It didn't happen. They promised the apocalypse when the payroll tax expired. It didn't happen. They promised increased unemployment. It didn't happen. What did happen was Rand Paul rambling for 13 hours on the Senate floor though. That sure accomplished...nothing. They made a lot of hay about Chuck Hagel, one of their own and now disowned, and filibustered his nomination...until they approved him anyway.

So here we are, with the woman from "Heat" thinking, just thinking about running, and the Kentucky GOP has already paid for anti-Judd ads in Kentucky. They've already opened up the coffers for a woman who hasn't said word one about running.

Democrats realize the reality about Kentucky: winning there is too tough. It's too secured for Republicans. So why not give Republicans the rope and let them hang themselves from it instead?

You don't have to like it. This is how the sausage gets made.
2013-03-13 11:16:15 AM  
1 votes:

tnpir: Don't be so certain that Ashley Judd would have no chance of winning. It's entirely possible McConnell is going to get primaried (there have been rumblings) and have to spend a shiat-pot of money to retain the nomination.  And if history is our guide, it's not outside the realm of possibility that McConnell could get primaried and lose to a bat-shiat crazy Angle/O'Donnell/Akin/Mordock teabagger, which with her likely fundraising abilities could put the seat in play.

Granted, it's quite the uphill battle, but it's not impossible.


And even if not, it means McConnell would have to spend all that cash on BOTH a primary (which will be a tough slog as the Tea Party probably gets better numbers than Democrats in KY) and general election battle.

To re-elect the Republican Minority Leader. In a heavily red state. With so many more vulnerable seats to defend. Against a well-known and well-financed (and vocal, and good at the PR game) opponent.

// getcha popcorn ready
2013-03-13 11:14:34 AM  
1 votes:
"She's gonna have a tough row to hoe," said Jim Cauley, who ran Governor Steve Beshear's 2007 campaign and also worked on President Obama's 2004 Senate campaign. "She doesn't fit the damn state. That's her problem. I don't think she fits the voters of the state of Kentucky."

Considering Beshear lost by 13% when he ran against McConnell, perhaps a new approach is in order?
2013-03-13 11:08:21 AM  
1 votes:
2013-03-13 11:07:30 AM  
1 votes:

EyeballKid: uksocal: But how has McConnell done on his one campaign promise from 2006, more earmarks for the state?

Remember when he called it "government waste?" Oh wait, he was talking about money that doesn't go to him...uh, I mean, um, that is, the STATE! Yes, yes, the state, THAT'S where the money goes, no need to investigate, nosirreebob.

/Mitch McConnell, the hooker with a heart of gold


Exactly. He got my city over $1M for a fancy new riverfront that is used for one event a year, and occasionally by JimBob and BillyBob fishing off the dock. Not wasteful at all.
2013-03-13 11:05:20 AM  
1 votes:

verbaltoxin: If anything it's an extension of the Obama Era of Democratic politics. The art of politics as trolling.


That's about all that CAN be done, since the whole country is gerrymandered within an inch of its life.  Unfortunately, elections just don't matter as much as the money that goes into them anymore.
2013-03-13 10:58:38 AM  
1 votes:

PapaChester: "She's gonna have a tough row to hoe," said Jim Cauley, who ran Governor Steve Beshear's 2007 campaign and also worked on President Obama's 2004 Senate campaign. "She doesn't fit the damn state. That's her problem. I don't think she fits the voters of the state of Kentucky."

This is true. She is not a hick-ass farmer talking about hoeing rows. She does not fit the state because she is not obese or racist, and, worst of all, she is a woman with strong personal belief which flies in the face of the "men wear the pants" attitude the south is renown for.

Uphill battle? Sure. But running regressive candidates just so you can win is not progress.



Grimes is regressive?  On what issues?  Hell, her biggest policy push to date has been voting-rights expansion.  Recent polling suggests she also has better odds that Judd of knocking off the Turtle... assuming she's willing to run.  (Which isn't a given, as there are easier ways for her to move up in politics than going head-to-head with McConnell.)

Here's a hint, folks:  It may be an uphill battle.  But writing off the state as a whole is not a strategy to win that battle.
2013-03-13 10:51:43 AM  
1 votes:

Wasteland: Mentat: Oh good, Kentucky Blue Dog concern trolling.  How unexpected.

And unfortunately, they're also correct.


When your state's Democrats are nearly indistinguishable from Republicans because of sh*t like this:

EyeballKid: So, Kentucky Democrats, like the governor who is about to legalize religious discrimination and gave a huge tax break to the makers of the Bedrock Educational Park and Snake Oil Bottling Company, don't like Ashley Judd? She has my vote.


You deserve to lose your majority.

The National DNC is aiming at either a stalemate, a small gain for Dems or small losses for the GOP in '14. They also want Sen. McConnell to bleed money to keep his seat. They want it to be a pyrrhic victory for him. There simply isn't going to be a big sweep in Congress coming soon. So Democrats have to play the "death of a thousand little cuts" game. They see the splitting happening within the Republican Party and want to foment it.

If anything it's an extension of the Obama Era of Democratic politics. The art of politics as trolling.
2013-03-13 10:48:23 AM  
1 votes:
I'd rather Ashley Judd doesn't run but it's more a matter of the same problem as Rand Paul -- I feel like some small debt of public service is owed before you ask to run for national politics. Run for city council if you have to but atleast prove to me you have some experience at being a public servant.
2013-03-13 10:18:09 AM  
1 votes:
Can someone let me know whether corn dogs are a popular snack in Kentucky?

Um...no reason.
2013-03-13 10:18:00 AM  
1 votes:

Hebalo: Why should they worry? It's not like any of them would win the seat. Give the lady a chance.


That's exactly it. The alternative is likely a blue dog democrat whose strategy will be to disagree with Obama on most issues and agree with McConnell. They'll get crushed and democrats will wonder what went so wrong.
2013-03-13 10:12:41 AM  
1 votes:
I'd send her a chunk of money just for the lulz.
2013-03-13 10:04:44 AM  
1 votes:
Why should they worry? It's not like any of them would win the seat. Give the lady a chance.
 
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