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(Wall Street Journal)   In its infinite wisdom, the Federal Government has forced the shutdown of the most accurate predictor of elections, politics, and financial markets ever known   (blogs.wsj.com ) divider line
    More: Sad, Intrade, open positions, Commodity Futures, Futures Trading, scrutiny, federal government  
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5830 clicks; posted to Politics » on 11 Mar 2013 at 4:43 PM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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Archived thread
2013-03-11 03:35:23 PM  
5 votes:
RIP NATE SILVER
2013-03-11 04:57:35 PM  
4 votes:
From the article, it seems like the company wanted to operate as a casino but with the regulations of an investment house.

Which, I suppose, is a bit of progress compared to most investment houses wanting to operate like a casino.
2013-03-11 04:42:39 PM  
3 votes:
Maybe they shouldn't have lied to regulators so many times that they finally had enough of it.
2013-03-11 05:21:35 PM  
2 votes:

skullkrusher: Zeb Hesselgresser: skullkrusher: ugh... lots of people getting farked over there

true, but I feel much safer now, so . . . totally worth it

I haven't heard about any irregularities at InTrade. Shutting them down is probably gonna wind up farking more people than they were farking themselves. If all the markets on InTrade were closed ended - meaning that they were based on a particular event after which all "position" expired, I suppose the damage would be limited but if it was one of the open ended sort of things where people buy and sell celebrities I can see lots of being being screwed.


I have little sympathy for anyone who would "invest" in celebrities in such a manner.
2013-03-11 02:44:42 PM  
2 votes:
It produced mixed results: Intrade accurately forecasted President Barack Obama would be re-elected last year; odds on the site showed the U.S. Supreme Court would rule the health care bill unconstitutional, which proved to be wrong.

Or, not so accurate.
2013-03-11 07:49:05 PM  
1 vote:

St_Francis_P: It produced mixed results: Intrade accurately forecasted President Barack Obama would be re-elected last year; odds on the site showed the U.S. Supreme Court would rule the health care bill unconstitutional, which proved to be wrong.

Or, not so accurate.


To be fair, that was a major upset. However, Intrade did get the failure of the Wisconsin Governor's recall by a wide margin when virtually no media outlet would have predicted it (including Fox).
2013-03-11 07:21:30 PM  
1 vote:
God, too bad the sequester isn't going to shut down the WSJ.

The world would breathe easier without all that noise.
2013-03-11 05:55:09 PM  
1 vote:
Aside from the other dubious parts of the headline, from the sounds of it InTrade shut down on their own because there were financial shenanigans going on internally.
2013-03-11 05:12:52 PM  
1 vote:

St_Francis_P: It produced mixed results: Intrade accurately forecasted President Barack Obama would be re-elected last year; odds on the site showed the U.S. Supreme Court would rule the health care bill unconstitutional, which proved to be wrong.

Or, not so accurate.


They were right for a few minutes at least...

img13.imageshack.us
2013-03-11 04:51:55 PM  
1 vote:

Almost Everybody Poops: Philip Francis Queeg: You'd think Intrade would have been able to predict their own shutdown.

That would have been interesting if they had that bet on Intrade.

"Congratulations, you win! But we can't pay you due to external investigations...."


FTFM
2013-03-11 04:50:42 PM  
1 vote:

Philip Francis Queeg: You'd think Intrade would have been able to predict their own shutdown.


That would have been interesting if they had that bet on Intrade.

"Congratulations, you win! But we can't pay you due to internal investigations...."
2013-03-11 04:50:01 PM  
1 vote:

Speaking of Nate Silver, I was just reading his page a couple hours ago on this very subject, and he doesn't share subby's opinion --

...{T}here are other betting markets and bookmakers who offer odds on the election. Several of these sites are already taking bets on the identity of the 2016 Republican presidential nominee, for instance, along with any number of other races. Most of these sites are not open to Americans. But they tended to perform more rationally than Intrade over the course of the 2012 campaign, with their prices more closely tracking polls, prediction models and news events.

Link
 
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