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(Fuel Fix)   Donald 'Duck' Dunn's formula has been cracked without the use of music   (fuelfix.com) divider line 76
    More: Cool, liquid fuels, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, natural gas prices, renewable fuels, uc san francisco, startup company, LyondellBasell Industries, Said, Edward  
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5316 clicks; posted to Business » on 11 Mar 2013 at 9:53 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-03-11 07:53:19 PM
In thetime until electrics get perfected. It would actually be a great benefit to the county to just run vehicles on natural gas and cut out the hocus pocus.

We're already at early 90s levels of c02 just from the effect natural gas has had displacing coal in electricity generation, we can do the same thing for a significant part of the gas market.

The civic GX is well made, costs less than 30k, has a 250 mile range and is available right now. We just need to commit to getting more NGV service stations online
 
2013-03-11 08:29:15 PM
Wait, so we can fuel cars with a tight bass line?
 
2013-03-11 09:47:03 PM

Hollie Maea: Anyway, we'll see. But my main point is, you don't need to be able to recharge in 5 minutes. Less than 1 percent of drivers would need this feature.


And those 1%ers will be the morons parked in the middle of I95 or the PA turnpike at 8AM with a dead battery and no way to dump a gallon of electrons in just to get them to the next offramp or service plaza all because they were going to plug in the night before but forgot and decided to chance it. The only days this would happen are the days I need to be on those highways.
 
2013-03-11 09:56:50 PM

Tyrone Slothrop: Wait, so we can fuel cars with a tight bass line?


No more automotive pollution?  Everyone driving around cranking Parliament-Funkadelic?

Sounds like a win-win.
 
2013-03-11 10:54:47 PM

Chevello: Hollie Maea: Anyway, we'll see. But my main point is, you don't need to be able to recharge in 5 minutes. Less than 1 percent of drivers would need this feature.

And those 1%ers will be the morons parked in the middle of I95 or the PA turnpike at 8AM with a dead battery and no way to dump a gallon of electrons in just to get them to the next offramp or service plaza all because they were going to plug in the night before but forgot and decided to chance it. The only days this would happen are the days I need to be on those highways.


Around here, AAA has portable quick chargers for people who can't pay attention to their range (of course no one ever runs out of range)

Also, get a horse, amirite?
 
2013-03-12 02:48:53 AM

stonicus: dittybopper: Hollie Maea: When an electric car comes out with a 250+ mile range for less than 25K, that will change everything.

I agree, so long as you can recharge it in 10 minutes or less.

The other caveat is if you can get it down even more in price.  I'd consider something with an *HONEST* 250 mile range at highway speeds as a commuter car, but it would have to be as cheap as my current car.

I just measured 38 MPG* from my $12k Accent, and I drive about 300 miles a week to work and back.  With gas costing $5 a gallon, over a year that will cost me about $1,900 a year in gas.  That means that at a $25k price, the "break even" point for me would be 6.8 years, and nearly 100,000 miles.  That's ignoring the cost of the electricity to recharge the car, and it assumes that gas will be at least $1 higher than it has been.

Your mileage may vary, as they say.

*Technically, 37.8 something.  EPA rating is 36 mpg highway.

What about swappable power supplies?  Like the same principle people use for their propane tanks for grills.  Go to the gas station (or whatever they'd be called now) and swap out your used battery for a charged one, and go about your way.  The station charges your old one and gives it to someone else when it is full.  Make it some club you join for the service, like an extension of AAA or something.


I heard a guy on Adam Carola's show when he was still on radio that was trying to bring that concept to LA.  I can't remember the company's name.
 
2013-03-12 06:36:32 AM
How does all this electric wonderfulness work when you are fighting your way through stop and go traffic in the middle of the summer, trying to have a little A/C running to keep your brain from boiling.
 
2013-03-12 07:49:54 AM
Germans figured this out during WW II:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas_to_liquids  A country rich in coal figured out how to turn it all into 'diesel' fuel. Gasify the coal, reassemble the gas into a diesel fuel.

Hollie Maea: 6:25 PM.  You arrive in LA with 5 miles of range on your car.


How the hell do you drive. How the 18 hour 1200 mile drive back from TX to IN went for me.

Buy car in TX. Start driving. Top up the car. Drive for 8 hours, ~550 miles. Stop at a rest area. Open my sleeping back and take a nap in the back. Wake up drive another 2 hours. Fill up. Grab breakfast. 

Drive the rest of the way. Total time. ~18 hours + my nap + 20 minutes to fill up. (if that).


Hell even growing up drive to grandmas meant 5 hours in one shot. Depending on how warm it was out side the kids would just go to sleep in the car, my mom would get up at 4 am and drive and we'd sleep 95% of the way there.
 
2013-03-12 08:58:23 AM
Siluria Technologies, has a new way to turn that gas into chemicals

Stopped reading right there.

Next you will tell me that my snack bars are full of "ingredients"
 
2013-03-12 12:06:28 PM

Hollie Maea: If these guys work super hard and get their process to production in record time, they MIGHT make a little bit of money before the country unlodges its head from its ass and stops making it free to emit CO2 into the atmosphere.

Probably not, though, since the battery people are working harder and in 5 years it will seem quaint to fill your car with liquid fuel.


It's not free, i pay for that gas.

Also, the millions of cars on the roads aren't just going to disappear for electric cars.
 
2013-03-12 12:15:09 PM

jaybeezey: It's not free, i pay for that gas


You aren't paying for the societal costs of the emissions.
 
2013-03-12 12:56:22 PM

Hollie Maea: Who is planning to make the car I described in 5 years? Lots of people.


You didn't answer the question.  The correct answer is only Tesla.  They've delayed the Model X until 2014, but they're the only maker planning to build a BEV with a range greater than 150 miles in the next five years.

Ford, GM, BMW, Mercedes, and others are introducing 1st-Gen BEVs over the next few years, but none of them plan to go anywhere near 250-mile range.  It's generally accepted in the auto industry that the sweet spot for BEVs is as short-range commuters.

Keeping the range short allows them to spec smaller batteries, which keeps weight, and more importantly, cost down.  Oh yeah, you claimed a $25K price tag for your hypothetical 250-mile range BEV.  That's just not going to happen anytime in the near future.

BEVs are great, but most suited for small commuter cars.  PHEVs will bridge the gap for larger vehicles and longer trips, meaning the ICE will still be with us for a very long time.
 
2013-03-12 01:39:53 PM

Kraftwerk Orange: Hollie Maea: Who is planning to make the car I described in 5 years? Lots of people.

You didn't answer the question.  The correct answer is only Tesla.  They've delayed the Model X until 2014, but they're the only maker planning to build a BEV with a range greater than 150 miles in the next five years.

Ford, GM, BMW, Mercedes, and others are introducing 1st-Gen BEVs over the next few years, but none of them plan to go anywhere near 250-mile range.  It's generally accepted in the auto industry that the sweet spot for BEVs is as short-range commuters.

Keeping the range short allows them to spec smaller batteries, which keeps weight, and more importantly, cost down.  Oh yeah, you claimed a $25K price tag for your hypothetical 250-mile range BEV.  That's just not going to happen anytime in the near future.

BEVs are great, but most suited for small commuter cars.  PHEVs will bridge the gap for larger vehicles and longer trips, meaning the ICE will still be with us for a very long time.


I do expect Tesla to continue to lead the pack in terms of range, and I expect that their gen 3 subcompact is likely to have as much or more range as the Model S/Model X.

But it's not accurate to say that "no one else is planning to go anywhere near a 250 mile range".  Automakers are keeping their cards very close to the vest in this realm, and so they are not broadcasting to everyone what they plan to release within the next 5 years.  But they are working on longer range vehicles, and they know they have to be ready when Tesla comes out with a good but inexpensive product (Gen 3).

Example:  Mitsubishi, which was one of the first big manufacturers to come out with a BEV (in Japan) offers the woefully inadequate gen 1 iMev, with about 60 miles of range.  But just this past week they announced their gen 2 product which will have a 180 mile range.  It is likely to be available in 2 years.  That's starting to get close to 250 miles, three years ahead of schedule.  But before this past week, no one had any idea that they were planning a significant upgrade, and a lot of people speculated that they weren't really interested in the EV market.  There is no way you can say what any automakers are or are not planning to have available in five years.  Those data are valuable trade secrets.

Developing electric vehicles does take time, but upgrading the range is easy and can be developed quickly, if better cells become available.  For example, Tesla uses standard 18650 cells in their battery packs.  If a cell came out with much higher capacity tomorrow, Tesla could have them in next month's Model S production run.  They would only have to change a few software parameters.  They wouldn't even have to do the smallest bit of retooling.  If there are significantly higher capacity and cheaper cells available five years from now--and there will be--you can be sure they will be in cars.
 
2013-03-12 02:17:02 PM

Hollie Maea: I do expect Tesla to continue to lead the pack in terms of range, and I expect that their gen 3 subcompact is likely to have as much or more range as the Model S/Model X.


LOL.  Good luck.  Only time will tell.

The ICE will still be the primary motive power source for autos for the next decade.  BEVs have a very long way to go.  Battery prices have to fall, battery storage capacity has to increase, and they both need to happen at the same time.  Then, recharging times will still be an issue, because you can only pull so much power from the grid so fast.

PHEVs, BEVs, and HFCVs will all coexist.
 
2013-03-12 02:22:31 PM

Hollie Maea: Example: Mitsubishi, which was one of the first big manufacturers to come out with a BEV (in Japan) offers the woefully inadequate gen 1 iMev, with about 60 miles of range. But just this past week they announced their gen 2 product which will have a 180 mile range. It is likely to be available in 2 years.


www.blogcdn.com

"Mitsubishi is saying the CA-MiEV is "not planned for production," and is instead a showcase for "the various technologies MMC intends to introduce mid- to long-term across its range of global vehicles."

In the real world, the optimistic range projections would come out to about 100 miles in regular usage.  But remember, this is a concept car, used to showcase what *might* happen, and is not reflective of a specific vehicle that might actually get built.  Certainly not in the next two years, anyway.
 
2013-03-12 02:35:42 PM
Let's agree to check back in 2018 and see where we are.

We can also see how these natural gas to gasoline guys are doing.

Put it in your phone!  :)
 
2013-03-12 03:58:38 PM

Hollie Maea: the battery people are working harder and in 5 years it will seem quaint to fill your car with liquid fuel.


Sure.  In 2018, we'll get back together, and see if liquid-fueled cars are considered "quaint".
 
2013-03-12 04:50:24 PM
Sounds like someone has it figured out. Maybe she can pass the hat and get some investors together. You'll be in high cotton in 5 years!
 
2013-03-12 07:21:00 PM

Dancin_In_Anson: Sounds like someone has it figured out. Maybe she can pass the hat and get some investors together. You'll be in high cotton in 5 years!


Derp.  Everyone knows how difficult it is to compete with the big automakers who can sell at a loss.  The company that made my electric car went bankrupt because Nissan became a direct competitor just as they were going into production.  Tesla has survived because no big car manufacturer has tried to compete with their products (first a high end sports car and then a high end luxury sedan).  But the game is too far along now for anyone to jump ahead and make it big.

One thing I can always count on, though, is that you will be there standing in the way of progress, science and facts.
 
2013-03-12 07:21:53 PM

Kraftwerk Orange: Hollie Maea: the battery people are working harder and in 5 years it will seem quaint to fill your car with liquid fuel.

Sure.  In 2018, we'll get back together, and see if liquid-fueled cars are considered "quaint".


Sounds good.
 
2013-03-13 07:22:10 AM

Hollie Maea: Everyone knows how difficult it is to compete with the big automakers who can sell at a loss.


Derp indeed.
 
2013-03-13 09:23:10 AM

Dancin_In_Anson: Hollie Maea: Everyone knows how difficult it is to compete with the big automakers who can sell at a loss.

Derp indeed.


Don't you know? Selling at a loss is how automakers maker their profits!

/this is true if you're GM
 
2013-03-13 11:49:39 AM

YixilTesiphon: Dancin_In_Anson: Hollie Maea: Everyone knows how difficult it is to compete with the big automakers who can sell at a loss.

Derp indeed.

Don't you know? Selling at a loss is how automakers maker their profits!

/this is true if you're GM


No, they make their profits on pickup trucks and SUVs, because people will pay twice the amount it costs to produce them.
 
2013-03-13 12:31:50 PM

Hollie Maea: YixilTesiphon: Dancin_In_Anson: Hollie Maea: Everyone knows how difficult it is to compete with the big automakers who can sell at a loss.

Derp indeed.

Don't you know? Selling at a loss is how automakers maker their profits!

/this is true if you're GM

No, they make their profits on pickup trucks and SUVs, because people will pay twice the amount it costs to produce them.


Correct.  And they build small, high-mpg cars (including hybrids and now BEVs) because of Federal (CAFE) and state (CA ZEV mandate)) requirements.  They don't really make much of a profit on those loss-leader cars.
 
2013-03-13 06:56:19 PM

Kraftwerk Orange: They don't really make much of a profit on those loss-leader cars.


Yet a profit is made. If Ms. Hollie Maea has the formula for a vehicle that will not only pass all levels of mandates...from emissions to safety and will do what she says it can do and will be not only competitive but also profitable, I say more power to her. There's noting stopping her.
 
2013-03-14 02:04:16 AM
Got my calendar set on the phone for 2018. This should be fun. Maybe we should just submit a FarkUS thread for predictions.
 
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