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(CBS News)   Poll shows that Christie is strongest Republican but that Hillary would ride him like a horse in a match-up   (cbsnews.com) divider line 188
    More: Cool, Republican, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, Vice President Joe Biden, village idiot, Quinnipiac, Andrew Cuomo, Quinnipiac University  
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1560 clicks; posted to Politics » on 07 Mar 2013 at 2:16 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-03-07 03:40:19 PM  
Poll shows that Christie is strongest Republican but that Hillary would ride him like a horse in a match-up

She's into fatties?

or vice versa?
 
2013-03-07 03:40:48 PM  

Emposter: Interesting, when did Nate start posting opinion pieces without data?

He's a well written, really smart guy, and very well informed, but if he doesn't stick to the math and starts getting into the nonsense-half of political so-called-analysis, he's gonna end up like all the other "experts"--saying something stupid and getting discredited.

He's got the math-based-politics territory well dominated...he doesn't need to expand into the bullshiat-based-politics territory that everyone else wins and make himself look bad. I like him better as the aloof super-math-prophet.


Silver's one data-point was that Christie wasn't invited to the CPAC orgy, where he's previously been welcome.  It's more of a 0/I thing than a % thing.  YMMV
 
2013-03-07 03:41:05 PM  

Supes: Honestly I think Rubio eeks out the 2016 GOP nomination. He has the whole Latino thing working against him of course, but the GOP has been gung-ho about trying to salvage some segment of the Latino vote, and they perceive this as the best way. He'll have a tough time getting states in the deep south, but will do great elsewhere.  Christie is just not crazy enough to win the primaries..


One of the interesting myths about the Republican primaries is how Rick Perry imploded because of his poor debate performance. That wasn't the case, even after the disastrous debates he was still polling well with GOP Voters. They turned on him when R-Money brought up the fact he treated illegal immigrant high school students like actual human beings.

Rubio's stance on immigration will make him radioactive in 4 years.

Christie became the GOP darling because he acted like an asshole to everybody around him, since most people in NJ are Democrats/Liberals this is what TeaTards live for.

But with all that being said, the true soul and guiding principles of can be garnered from the Jeb Bush Immigrant Flip-Flop-Flip. Nobody knows what the fark a republican is thinking.
 
2013-03-07 03:42:24 PM  
Here's hoping she doesn't make it out of the primary and we never find out.
 
2013-03-07 03:42:52 PM  
*scans headline*
*forms mental image*
blog.wtfconcept.com
 
2013-03-07 03:42:52 PM  
mahuika:
Pff, stupid liberal media polls putting Libs against Libs. We all know who the real contenders are.

www.cathousechat.com

Too bad for them there's no Special Olympics of federal politics.
 
2013-03-07 03:43:46 PM  
If Christie did run, any bets on whether he would carry New Jersey? He did ok during Sandy, but pissed off a LOT of teachers and cops. Plus we're pretty blue to begin with. It would be embarrassing if he didn't carry his own home state.
 
2013-03-07 03:44:49 PM  

Stone Meadow: Tommy Moo: Mark my words: Christie is the only Republican I'm afraid of. Clinton is very popular because she has been quietly doing a good job, but forcing her to debate Christie will even things out. He's tenacious, and has a way of making liberal policies sound very silly in front of a camera, even to common people that would actually be helped by a net shift to the left in this country.

Granted, but it'll never get to that point, because the Teatards will pull him down like a pack of zombies.


Yeah. Republicans would never nominate a "moderate" Governor from a blue northeastern state.
 
2013-03-07 03:45:42 PM  

No Such Agency: Too bad for them there's no Special Olympics of federal politics.


Have you seen what Texas sends to Washington?
 
2013-03-07 03:46:14 PM  

Emposter: Citrate1007: The GOP will run a Latino female.......because they honestly think that is all it takes to make amends with minorities.

They don't give their token [insert discriminated group here] positions of power.  They give them positions worthy of their token status, like Chair of the Committee for Procuring Kitchen Supplies and Napkins.


Or "Head of telling obvious lies to the UN"
 
2013-03-07 03:46:50 PM  

MyKingdomForYourHorse: Stone Meadow: Any odds on who will be the first Republitard to call her a biatch in public? ;^)

Assuming Boehner hasn't been primaried into non existence, we already get the ass bomb out of the way this year so I'll put my money on that horse.


There is that...I recall the Ohio Tea Party threatened him with "nice speakership you got there, mr Boehner, it'd be too bad if something happened to it" last year.

The DNC will take the House next year or in '16, and the Teatards will be the knot of gibbering idiots over in the corner.
 
2013-03-07 03:48:55 PM  

randomjsa: Only a Democrat could testify like she did on Benghazi and remain popular.



Alberto Gonzalez approves this message.
 
2013-03-07 03:50:12 PM  

Wendy's Chili: Stone Meadow: ...the Teatards will pull him down like a pack of zombies.

Yeah. Republicans would never nominate a "moderate" Governor from a blue northeastern state.


Haven't you been paying attention? The Teatards have concluded two things from last year's debacle:

1) they didn't go far enough to the right, and

2) the message needs repackaging, not reformulating.

That is not a prescription for success in my humble opinion.
 
2013-03-07 03:54:02 PM  

redqueenmeg: Supes:
Oh I know he's Cuban. It'll allow him to win Florida, but hurt in states like California.

What on earth makes you think all Hispanics in Florida are Cuban or like Cubans?


About 1/3 of Hispanics in Florida are Cuban. I know the numbers. That, plus getting mainstream GOP support, would allow him to easily win the state in a GOP primary or a general election.
 
2013-03-07 03:55:13 PM  

TheOther: Emposter: Interesting, when did Nate start posting opinion pieces without data?

He's a well written, really smart guy, and very well informed, but if he doesn't stick to the math and starts getting into the nonsense-half of political so-called-analysis, he's gonna end up like all the other "experts"--saying something stupid and getting discredited.

He's got the math-based-politics territory well dominated...he doesn't need to expand into the bullshiat-based-politics territory that everyone else wins and make himself look bad. I like him better as the aloof super-math-prophet.

Silver's one data-point was that Christie wasn't invited to the CPAC orgy, where he's previously been welcome.  It's more of a 0/I thing than a % thing.  YMMV


Isn't there some sort of statistician saying about how anecdotes aren't data or something like that?
 
2013-03-07 03:56:56 PM  

Stone Meadow: There is that...I recall the Ohio Tea Party threatened him with "nice speakership you got there, mr Boehner, it'd be too bad if something happened to it" last year.

The DNC will take the House next year or in '16, and the Teatards will be the knot of gibbering idiots over in the corner.


Pretty sure if the House finally flips it will be 2016, Dems will hold the line in both House and Senate which will be a buck trend historically and then in the impending implosion will take the House. Now we just will have to work on these god farking awful state houses and govs.

I honestly see Boehner being one of the ones that begins the breaking ranks implosion
 
2013-03-07 03:58:46 PM  
Could be worse, Submitter.

i.imgur.com

/awesome movie
 
2013-03-07 03:59:02 PM  

MyKingdomForYourHorse: Pretty sure if the House finally flips it will be 2016, Dems will hold the line in both House and Senate which will be a buck trend historically and then in the impending implosion will take the House. Now we just will have to work on these god farking awful state houses and govs.

I honestly see Boehner being one of the ones that begins the breaking ranks implosion


It's just too damn gerrymandered. The Dems might gain a couple seats here and there in the next couple elections, but control of the House won't change till 2020.
 
2013-03-07 03:59:44 PM  

Supes: redqueenmeg: Supes:
Oh I know he's Cuban. It'll allow him to win Florida, but hurt in states like California.

What on earth makes you think all Hispanics in Florida are Cuban or like Cubans?

About 1/3 of Hispanics in Florida are Cuban. I know the numbers. That, plus getting mainstream GOP support, would allow him to easily win the state in a GOP primary or a general election.


A primary, certainly, since most Florida Hispanics who are Republican are likely Cuban or Cuban-friendly.  General election? Easily?  No.  You may recall Florida has not always gone red, and I don't know a single Hispanic here who would vote race over party.  He MIGHT be able to win a general, though I doubt it, since he would not even have his Senate seat if there hadn't been a third-party spoiler, which everyone likes to forget.  But even if he could win a general, it definitely wouldn't be "easily."

So, no.
 
2013-03-07 04:00:17 PM  

Lord_Baull: randomjsa: Only a Democrat could testify like she did on Benghazi and remain popular.


Alberto Gonzalez approves this message.


Bert Gonzales was always a Bush toady, though - no one ever expected much out of him. Bert testified in multiple hearings, and did a worse job than Hillary by far in each of them. Bert can't find a job anymore because of how shiatty a legal/professional mind/reputation he has.

// Ollie North and Gordon Liddy are better examples, because the right farking LOVES those weasels
// I don't even think Bert's mom likes him anymore
 
2013-03-07 04:05:11 PM  
Too bad Christie would finish no higher than 4th in a GOP Primary.
 
2013-03-07 04:07:29 PM  
Laughing at anyone who thinks Hillary will be "too old".   She's a babyboomer, and babyboomers will be the biggest age demo that votes in 2016 by a  considerable margin.
 
2013-03-07 04:08:22 PM  

dionysusaur: sorry, but Hil is the one candidate that, assuming the R party manages to nominate somone who appears sane, guarantees a D loss.

/ that's a biiiig if, though.


Yeah, that's the problem right there.

Like in the last two races,  the second-place finisher in the last GOP primary has a good shot in '16;  Santorum managed to last through the entire primary season (unlike the wingnuts who peaked early and never made it to the primaries), so he has a national infrastructure of campaign workers for the next time around.  The GOP tightened their primary rules last time (I think there were a few states where Gingrich couldn't get on the ballot), so regardless of his numerous negatives, Santorum has a big advantage over anyone who didn't run in the last campaign.

/I tried to work "Santorum ran" or "Santorum is spreading" in there, just for lulz.
 
2013-03-07 04:09:05 PM  

InmanRoshi: Laughing at anyone who thinks Hillary will be "too old".   She's a babyboomer, and babyboomers will be the biggest age demo that votes in 2016 by a  considerable margin.


Forgot to add she's the same age as Mitt.
 
2013-03-07 04:10:14 PM  

redqueenmeg: e MIGHT be able to win a general, though I doubt it, since he would not even have his Senate seat if there hadn't been a third-party spoiler, which everyone likes to forget.


Really, only won because of a third-party spoiler? That's rewriting history.

Crist and Meek, combined, got 49.91% of the vote. Rubio by himself got 48.89% of the vote.

Did Rubio get less? Of course... I can't argue with math. But if 3rd-party Crist wasn't in the race, there is no way that 100% of his vote goes to Meek. Probably about half of it would have gone to Rubio, giving him a landslide.

It would be somewhat reasonable to say Meek was a Democratic spoiler preventing the 3rd-party Crist to win, but even then the sheer math of this makes it incredibly unlikely.Rubio got damn near half the vote all by himself. Taking away any of the major competitors would almost certainly put him over half.
 
2013-03-07 04:11:26 PM  

Supes: MyKingdomForYourHorse: Pretty sure if the House finally flips it will be 2016, Dems will hold the line in both House and Senate which will be a buck trend historically and then in the impending implosion will take the House. Now we just will have to work on these god farking awful state houses and govs.

I honestly see Boehner being one of the ones that begins the breaking ranks implosion

It's just too damn gerrymandered. The Dems might gain a couple seats here and there in the next couple elections, but control of the House won't change till 2020.


True, I wouldn't stake my life on the DNC taking the House in any particular election for the reason you offer. OTOH, even with gerrymandering a lot of high-profile GOP Reps came close to losing, including Bachmann, Ryan and others. The real challenge for the GOP is the Tea Party, not the Dems until after redistricting for the '22 elections. Look at how many establishment GOPers have been primaried out only to have the Teatard lose to a mainstream Dem in elections the GOP should have had a lock on. A few more rounds of that and the DNC could have unitary government.
 
2013-03-07 04:12:30 PM  

HighOnCraic: dionysusaur: sorry, but Hil is the one candidate that, assuming the R party manages to nominate somone who appears sane, guarantees a D loss.

/ that's a biiiig if, though.

Yeah, that's the problem right there.

Like in the last two races,  the second-place finisher in the last GOP primary has a good shot in '16;  Santorum managed to last through the entire primary season (unlike the wingnuts who peaked early and never made it to the primaries), so he has a national infrastructure of campaign workers for the next time around.  The GOP tightened their primary rules last time (I think there were a few states where Gingrich couldn't get on the ballot), so regardless of his numerous negatives, Santorum has a big advantage over anyone who didn't run in the last campaign.

/I tried to work "Santorum ran" or "Santorum is spreading" in there, just for lulz.


Game of thrones it.

"SANTORUM IS CUMMING!"

/enjoy that image
 
2013-03-07 04:13:17 PM  

Kuta: Has to be said, again, and ad nauseam until the election...

HILLARY CANNOT WIN IN 2016. SHE WILL BE TOO OLD. SHE HAS TOO MUCH BAGGAGE.

She was a great Secretary of State. She'll make a great Senator from Illnois, or a decent Supreme Court Justice. But she is not the right Democrat for 2016. Start looking for real alternatives.


I honestly doubt she'll even run in 2016.  With her recent health problems, I doubt she'd even want to deal with the stress of The Big Chair.
 
2013-03-07 04:14:28 PM  

Gyrfalcon: Smoking GNU: really? ALREADY? America JUST finished with the last election. How about you lot concentrate on NOW instead of in 4 years?

There are people already planning 2020. This election thing is getting out of control.


This is the shiat that separates the rock-bottom, mainlining, thoroughly hooked politics junkies from the poseurs. The rush is exhilarating, but coming down is a biatch.
 
2013-03-07 04:15:53 PM  

Emposter: TheOther: Emposter: Interesting, when did Nate start posting opinion pieces without data?

He's a well written, really smart guy, and very well informed, but if he doesn't stick to the math and starts getting into the nonsense-half of political so-called-analysis, he's gonna end up like all the other "experts"--saying something stupid and getting discredited.

He's got the math-based-politics territory well dominated...he doesn't need to expand into the bullshiat-based-politics territory that everyone else wins and make himself look bad. I like him better as the aloof super-math-prophet.

Silver's one data-point was that Christie wasn't invited to the CPAC orgy, where he's previously been welcome.  It's more of a 0/I thing than a % thing.  YMMV

Isn't there some sort of statistician saying about how anecdotes aren't data or something like that?


The fact that he's been invited in the past but wasn't invited this year is a freaking horrible sign for his potential campaign in the primaries (but if he somehow managed to win, he could use it in his favor in the general election).  It may be just an anecdote, or it may be a sign that the base has already turned against him.  There's still plenty of time to turn that around, but the only way he can please the base is to reach out in ways that will hurt him with independents, kinda like the last moderate Governor of a blue northeastern state that won the GOP nomination.
 
2013-03-07 04:20:15 PM  

Supes: the GOP has been gung-ho about trying to salvage some segment of the Latino vote, and they perceive this as the best way.


That lasted about 2 weeks.
 
2013-03-07 04:21:54 PM  

BMulligan: Gyrfalcon: Smoking GNU: really? ALREADY? America JUST finished with the last election. How about you lot concentrate on NOW instead of in 4 years?

There are people already planning 2020. This election thing is getting out of control.

This is the shiat that separates the rock-bottom, mainlining, thoroughly hooked politics junkies from the poseurs. The rush is exhilarating, but coming down is a biatch.


imgs.xkcd.com
 
2013-03-07 04:22:31 PM  
Ha-Ha! Smithers! this reminds me of that fat man I used to ride to work!
 
2013-03-07 04:23:06 PM  

HighOnCraic: Emposter: TheOther: Emposter: Interesting, when did Nate start posting opinion pieces without data?

He's a well written, really smart guy, and very well informed, but if he doesn't stick to the math and starts getting into the nonsense-half of political so-called-analysis, he's gonna end up like all the other "experts"--saying something stupid and getting discredited.

He's got the math-based-politics territory well dominated...he doesn't need to expand into the bullshiat-based-politics territory that everyone else wins and make himself look bad. I like him better as the aloof super-math-prophet.

Silver's one data-point was that Christie wasn't invited to the CPAC orgy, where he's previously been welcome.  It's more of a 0/I thing than a % thing.  YMMV

Isn't there some sort of statistician saying about how anecdotes aren't data or something like that?

The fact that he's been invited in the past but wasn't invited this year is a freaking horrible sign for his potential campaign in the primaries (but if he somehow managed to win, he could use it in his favor in the general election).  It may be just an anecdote, or it may be a sign that the base has already turned against him.  There's still plenty of time to turn that around, but the only way he can please the base is to reach out in ways that will hurt him with independents, kinda like the last moderate Governor of a blue northeastern state that won the GOP nomination.


"May be."  I don't come to Nate Silver for "may be"s, dammit!  I come to Silver for a guru floating a few inches off the floor pointing in random directions and calling "heads, heads, tails, heads" for coins being dropped at cash registers miles away!

As for Christie, you don't need to be a super math dude to know that good GOP general candidates are often bad GOP primary candidates because GOP primaries are dominated by psychopaths and the general is aimed more at moderates.  And not being invited to CPAC is probably a bad sign.

But that's the kind of thing I expect the idiot experts that are 50% wrong 100% of the time to tell me from rerun 57684587694539685 of whatever is playing on CNN, not from Nate Silver.
 
2013-03-07 04:25:39 PM  

HeartBurnKid: I honestly doubt she'll even run in 2016. With her recent health problems, I doubt she'd even want to deal with the stress of The Big Chair.


Please, she's going to run.  She resigned from Secretary of State without any further plans specifically to get ready for the gear up.  The  Hillary Clinton for President organization already has started collecting cash.   Both Bill and Chelsea have been talking up how great her health is in public.    She's wanted to be POTUS more than anything in her entire life, she's not going to turn down the opportunity when the DNC will hand her the nomination by default and the GOP is now a fringe National Party.
 
2013-03-07 04:26:49 PM  

RexTalionis: There's an image that you need to scour out of your brain with Brillo.


Yeah...Think I will be stopping at the package store on the way home for some 125 proof brain-bleach.

/ah, who am I kiddin.  I was going to do that anyway.
 
2013-03-07 04:29:18 PM  

HighOnCraic: The fact that he's been invited in the past but wasn't invited this year is a freaking horrible sign for his potential campaign in the primaries (but if he somehow managed to win, he could use it in his favor in the general election). It may be just an anecdote, or it may be a sign that the base has already turned against him.


He's a shoot off at the mouth Northeasterner running in a regional Southern Party, he's been pallin' around with the "blah" President and he's openly criticized the GOP repeatedly.  His national aspirations inside the GOP are done for.
 
2013-03-07 04:29:27 PM  

Supes: redqueenmeg: e MIGHT be able to win a general, though I doubt it, since he would not even have his Senate seat if there hadn't been a third-party spoiler, which everyone likes to forget.

Really, only won because of a third-party spoiler? That's rewriting history.

Crist and Meek, combined, got 49.91% of the vote. Rubio by himself got 48.89% of the vote.

Did Rubio get less? Of course... I can't argue with math. But if 3rd-party Crist wasn't in the race, there is no way that 100% of his vote goes to Meek. Probably about half of it would have gone to Rubio, giving him a landslide.

It would be somewhat reasonable to say Meek was a Democratic spoiler preventing the 3rd-party Crist to win, but even then the sheer math of this makes it incredibly unlikely.Rubio got damn near half the vote all by himself. Taking away any of the major competitors would almost certainly put him over half.


Crist had a lot of popularity with Democrats in this state, so I can't really say what would have happened for sure, but neither can you.

Regardless, Rubio cannot "easily" win Florida just because he is Cuban.  I don't think you would say his Senate win was just because he is Cuban.

But I'm sure you live in Florida and know all about it.
 
2013-03-07 04:29:48 PM  

Emposter: HighOnCraic: Emposter: TheOther: Emposter: Interesting, when did Nate start posting opinion pieces without data?

He's a well written, really smart guy, and very well informed, but if he doesn't stick to the math and starts getting into the nonsense-half of political so-called-analysis, he's gonna end up like all the other "experts"--saying something stupid and getting discredited.

He's got the math-based-politics territory well dominated...he doesn't need to expand into the bullshiat-based-politics territory that everyone else wins and make himself look bad. I like him better as the aloof super-math-prophet.

Silver's one data-point was that Christie wasn't invited to the CPAC orgy, where he's previously been welcome.  It's more of a 0/I thing than a % thing.  YMMV

Isn't there some sort of statistician saying about how anecdotes aren't data or something like that?

The fact that he's been invited in the past but wasn't invited this year is a freaking horrible sign for his potential campaign in the primaries (but if he somehow managed to win, he could use it in his favor in the general election).  It may be just an anecdote, or it may be a sign that the base has already turned against him.  There's still plenty of time to turn that around, but the only way he can please the base is to reach out in ways that will hurt him with independents, kinda like the last moderate Governor of a blue northeastern state that won the GOP nomination.

"May be."  I don't come to Nate Silver for "may be"s, dammit!  I come to Silver for a guru floating a few inches off the floor pointing in random directions and calling "heads, heads, tails, heads" for coins being dropped at cash registers miles away!

As for Christie, you don't need to be a super math dude to know that good GOP general candidates are often bad GOP primary candidates because GOP primaries are dominated by psychopaths and the general is aimed more at moderates.  And not being invited to CPAC is probably a bad sign.

B ...


Don't worry, we have a few more years before the anecdotes add up to data.  For, now, we'll just have to st back and listen to the lore. . .
 
2013-03-07 04:31:09 PM  

Lost Thought 00: May as well just do a name recognition survey at this point


Fark it. Lets just give it to the person voted "Most Popular".

Advisor: President Beyonce! They are on the steps of the White House, protesting your latest proposal to make trans-vaginal untrasounds mandatory before an abortion.

President Beyonce: Who?

Advisor: All the single ladies

President Beyonce: All the single ladies?

Advisor: All the single ladies.

Secret Service: Well get your hands up! Up!
 
2013-03-07 04:38:20 PM  

Drachirryz: Forget Christie, Rubio et al. Keep your eye on this lady:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjbtxupVo6I&feature=youtube_gdata&ht ml 5=1


please, she doesn't even know the difference between a forward and backslash.

Kidding.  Sort of.

But the way she pronounces her name will scare off the hardcore Repuublicans alone.

Wish I was kidding.
 
2013-03-07 04:41:04 PM  
Hillary's health would be put into play big time.   And as much good she has done as SOS, she still, has too much baggage.   Very polarizing figure.
 
2013-03-07 04:51:19 PM  

LessO2: And as much good she has done as SOS, she still, has too much baggage.


What's the baggage, though? I can only think of her husband's philandering, which has fark all to do with her, and SO MANY BENGHAZIS, which would only serve to push people away from the GOP.
 
2013-03-07 04:54:27 PM  
Fluorescent Testicle: ... which has fark all to do with her ...

[phrasing.jpg]
 
2013-03-07 04:54:51 PM  

LessO2: Hillary's health would be put into play big time.   And as much good she has done as SOS, she still, has too much baggage.   Very polarizing figure.


I would probably vote for her, depending on who else was running.  I worry about all the crap from the 90s (Travelgate, Vince Foster, etc.) being rehashed, though.
 
2013-03-07 04:58:45 PM  
I don't understand how anyone with even periphery awareness of the Republican party can possibly imagine Chris Christie making it through the primaries.
 
2013-03-07 05:01:07 PM  

Fluorescent Testicle: LessO2: And as much good she has done as SOS, she still, has too much baggage.

What's the baggage, though? I can only think of her husband's philandering, which has fark all to do with her, and SO MANY BENGHAZIS, which would only serve to push people away from the GOP.



I hear she personally killed Vince Foster. And also, she lied to Congress by asking, "What difference does it make."

Oh, and she dodged sniper fire in Bosnia. She's toxic.
 
2013-03-07 05:02:57 PM  

LessO2: Hillary's health would be put into play big time.   And as much good she has done as SOS, she still, has too much baggage.   Very polarizing figure.


She has an approval rating of about 70%.

I'd love to see who you think isn't a polarizing figure.
 
2013-03-07 05:03:55 PM  
Wouldn't Hillary ride him more lie a RINO than a horse?
 
2013-03-07 05:05:24 PM  

Newbaca: I don't understand how anyone with even periphery awareness of the Republican party can possibly imagine Chris Christie making it through the primaries.



I can see the primary ads now.
"Chris Christie. A man that dared hug the worst human being imaginable in Barak Obama. A man that dared criticize the GOP congress for not spending your tax dollars on FEMA. Do we really want a man like that with his finger on the button? Vote Sarah Palin."
 
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