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(CBS News)   Poll shows that Christie is strongest Republican but that Hillary would ride him like a horse in a match-up   (cbsnews.com) divider line 188
    More: Cool, Republican, Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, Vice President Joe Biden, village idiot, Quinnipiac, Andrew Cuomo, Quinnipiac University  
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1563 clicks; posted to Politics » on 07 Mar 2013 at 2:16 PM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



188 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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Archived thread
 
2013-03-07 01:47:41 PM  
I like Christie, and I agree that if I were going to vote for a republican he seems like one of the best options (still like Jon Huntsman too).

Of course, it won't really matter in the end.  The next election is Hillary's in a landslide as long as she doesn't do something monumentally boneheaded.  Hopefully putting Hillary in office would put Bill into an even more active position.
 
2013-03-07 01:49:22 PM  
Pff, stupid liberal media polls putting Libs against Libs. We all know who the real contenders are.

www.cathousechat.com
 
2013-03-07 01:55:44 PM  
There's an image that you need to scour out of your brain with Brillo.
 
2013-03-07 02:12:06 PM  
I really hope that's how it shakes out. Just go ahead and try to tell me those wouldn't be the greatest debates EVER.
 
2013-03-07 02:18:12 PM  
that would be an interesting race semi-brisk walk

/
he's fat
 
2013-03-07 02:18:20 PM  
It's almost like the northeastern Republicans that like Christie like Hillary more.
 
2013-03-07 02:18:44 PM  
I surprise the ol' gay can spread her legs wide-enough to straddle that girth.
 
2013-03-07 02:18:59 PM  

RexTalionis: There's an image that you need to scour out of your brain with Brillo.


Will Brillo work? I was about to use an industrial press with a 2" bit.
 
2013-03-07 02:19:59 PM  

TuteTibiImperes: I like Christie, and I agree that if I were going to vote for a republican he seems like one of the best options (still like Jon Huntsman too).

Of course, it won't really matter in the end.  The next election is Hillary's in a landslide as long as she doesn't do something monumentally boneheaded.  Hopefully putting Hillary in office would put Bill into an even more active position.


neither stands a chance with hardcore Republicans that vote in primaries
 
2013-03-07 02:20:37 PM  

oldfarthenry: I surprise the ol' gay can spread her legs wide-enough to straddle that girth.


umm... hehe... huh?
 
2013-03-07 02:21:25 PM  
Neither will run.
 
2013-03-07 02:21:43 PM  

TuteTibiImperes: I like Christie, and I agree that if I were going to vote for a republican he seems like one of the best options (still like Jon Huntsman too).

Of course, it won't really matter in the end.  The next election is Hillary's in a landslide as long as she doesn't do something monumentally boneheaded.  Hopefully putting Hillary in office would put Bill into an even more active position.


I have concerns about her doing something stupid.  Like the "dodging sniper fire" gate incident.
 
2013-03-07 02:22:46 PM  
Maybe she'll have learned how to run a better campaign after 8 years.

She needs to be more energizing, assuming she even wants the job.
 
2013-03-07 02:23:02 PM  
Yeah, the GOP has several warehouses full of material that went unused after Obama stole the show in 2008.

Of course they want her to run.
 
2013-03-07 02:23:13 PM  
There is going to be a cheesecake shortage if they run against each other.
 
2013-03-07 02:23:22 PM  
Wait a minute. How can Hillary run for a third term in 2106 after she beat Giuliani in 2008?
 
2013-03-07 02:25:34 PM  
Honestly I think Rubio eeks out the 2016 GOP nomination. He has the whole Latino thing working against him of course, but the GOP has been gung-ho about trying to salvage some segment of the Latino vote, and they perceive this as the best way. He'll have a tough time getting states in the deep south, but will do great elsewhere.  Christie is just not crazy enough to win the primaries.

As for the Democrat entry, despite all the speculation I'm not sure Hillary will even seek it. Blasphemy, I know, but I think 2008 took a lot out of her. She seems to prefer operating in a little smaller spotlight. Joe Biden WILL seek it out, but I don't think he'll win. After a hard-fought campaign, I think Mark Warner will emerge as the candidate, with a woman (Gillibrand? Klobuchar?) as his VP choice.

Warner vs. Rubio in 2016 would be a fun battle.
 
2013-03-07 02:25:56 PM  
Clinton would edge out Christie 45 to 37 percent

"Edge out"?

In any case it's way, way too soon to be talking about any of this shiat.
 
2013-03-07 02:25:56 PM  
Has to be said, again, and ad nauseam until the election...

HILLARY CANNOT WIN IN 2016. SHE WILL BE TOO OLD. SHE HAS TOO MUCH BAGGAGE.

She was a great Secretary of State. She'll make a great Senator from Illnois, or a decent Supreme Court Justice. But she is not the right Democrat for 2016. Start looking for real alternatives.
 
2013-03-07 02:27:29 PM  

Cheron: TuteTibiImperes: I like Christie, and I agree that if I were going to vote for a republican he seems like one of the best options (still like Jon Huntsman too).

Of course, it won't really matter in the end.  The next election is Hillary's in a landslide as long as she doesn't do something monumentally boneheaded.  Hopefully putting Hillary in office would put Bill into an even more active position.

neither stands a chance with hardcore Republicans that vote in primaries


And that is really the biggest problem in the Republican party right now.  They've allowed the party to be taken over by whackadoos and tea party extremists, all the while Fox News merrily plays along for ratings, and it becomes one great big echo chamber where even more extreme ideas are needed to get any publicity and the whole mass of it keeps moving further and further from reality.

The same things that any potential GOP candidate needs to do to get the approval of Limbaugh, Beck, and the hardliners in the party are the things that will make them unelectable in the general election.
 
2013-03-07 02:28:33 PM  

TuteTibiImperes: I like Christie, and I agree that if I were going to vote for a republican he seems like one of the best options (still like Jon Huntsman too).

Of course, it won't really matter in the end.  The next election is Hillary's in a landslide as long as she doesn't do something monumentally boneheaded.  Hopefully putting Hillary in office would put Bill into an even more active position.


We know how much Bill likes those active positions...
 
2013-03-07 02:29:28 PM  

Kuta: She'll make a great Senator from Illnois,


Lulwut?
 
2013-03-07 02:30:51 PM  

Kuta: She was a great Secretary of State.

Yes she did great job in my opinion.

 She'll make a great Senator from Illnois She'll make a great Senator from Illnois

Why would she want to go back to the Senate?

or a decent Supreme Court Justice


What in the blue hell has prepared her for SCOTUS seat?

/Voted for her in the 2008 primary
 
2013-03-07 02:30:55 PM  
That was a mental image I could've done without.  Now, excuse me while I go clear my head.

i249.photobucket.com
 
2013-03-07 02:31:18 PM  

Kuta: or a decent Supreme Court Justice


Lulwut?
 
2013-03-07 02:31:21 PM  

Supes: Honestly I think Rubio eeks out the 2016 GOP nomination. He has the whole Latino thing working against him of course, but the GOP has been gung-ho about trying to salvage some segment of the Latino vote, and they perceive this as the best way. He'll have a tough time getting states in the deep south, but will do great elsewhere.  Christie is just not crazy enough to win the primaries.

As for the Democrat entry, despite all the speculation I'm not sure Hillary will even seek it. Blasphemy, I know, but I think 2008 took a lot out of her. She seems to prefer operating in a little smaller spotlight. Joe Biden WILL seek it out, but I don't think he'll win. After a hard-fought campaign, I think Mark Warner will emerge as the candidate, with a woman (Gillibrand? Klobuchar?) as his VP choice.

Warner vs. Rubio in 2016 would be a fun battle.


Psst...just because he's Hispanic doesn't mean he gets the Hispanic vote.

He's Cuban. Ask some non-Cuban Hispanics how they feel about Cubans, especially Cubans who talk about immigration.

Typical GOP response, get an acceptable Hispanic and expect the Hispanic voters to swallow the crap message.
 
2013-03-07 02:31:27 PM  

Infernalist: Yeah, the GOP has several warehouses full of material that went unused after Obama stole the show in 2008.

Of course they want her to run.


Yeah but they'll all be eight year old insults at that point, little fresh in the mind of voters.  She has four more years of experience due to SoS position, plus whatever she does in the mean time.  On top of that, we'll have eight years total of Republicans saying Clinton wasn't the Devil but Obama is, which will take away some of their attacks.
 
2013-03-07 02:34:53 PM  

Infernalist: Psst...just because he's Hispanic doesn't mean he gets the Hispanic vote.

He's Cuban. Ask some non-Cuban Hispanics how they feel about Cubans, especially Cubans who talk about immigration.

Typical GOP response, get an acceptable Hispanic and expect the Hispanic voters to swallow the crap message.


Oh I know he's Cuban. It'll allow him to win Florida, but hurt in states like California. Specific nationality doesn't matter to the GOP though.... they just see brown skin and think "Opportunity!!"
 
2013-03-07 02:36:48 PM  
I'll wait to see what the "unskewed" polls tell us. Everybody knows those are the most accurate.
 
2013-03-07 02:37:21 PM  
May as well just do a name recognition survey at this point
 
2013-03-07 02:38:31 PM  
Hillary's done due to age and the medical history.  It would have been okay for Obama to let her ride out 4 more years of SoS duty as a victory lap (with a strong deputy SoS to mind the store if another medical issue occurred).  She'd be 69 by 2016 and 73 by 2020.  So even if she won in 2016, there would be considerations about her ability to run for a second term as an incumbent.  Obama's only 51 and he looked worn down after one term.
 
2013-03-07 02:38:42 PM  

Supes: Honestly I think Rubio eeks out the 2016 GOP nomination. He has the whole Latino thing working against him of course, but the GOP has been gung-ho about trying to salvage some segment of the Latino vote, and they perceive this as the best way. He'll have a tough time getting states in the deep south, but will do great elsewhere.  Christie is just not crazy enough to win the primaries.

As for the Democrat entry, despite all the speculation I'm not sure Hillary will even seek it. Blasphemy, I know, but I think 2008 took a lot out of her. She seems to prefer operating in a little smaller spotlight. Joe Biden WILL seek it out, but I don't think he'll win. After a hard-fought campaign, I think Mark Warner will emerge as the candidate, with a woman (Gillibrand? Klobuchar?) as his VP choice.

Warner vs. Rubio in 2016 would be a fun battle.


I had to look up Warner, because I honestly know nothing about the man.

Checked out where he stands on actual policies, thinking he was just another conservative Democrat from VA...

And ended up liking most of what I saw.  He's still far too much of an authoritarian for me, but on economics and most social policy, I either don't disagree or only mildly disagree.

Not bad, assuming the guy has the charisma and gravitas for the campaign (again, I know nothing about the man, so he may.)
 
2013-03-07 02:39:36 PM  

Kuta: Has to be said, again, and ad nauseam until the election...

HILLARY CANNOT WIN IN 2016. SHE WILL BE TOO OLD. SHE HAS TOO MUCH BAGGAGE.

She was a great Secretary of State. She'll make a great Senator from Illnois, or a decent Supreme Court Justice. But she is not the right Democrat for 2016. Start looking for real alternatives.


Why would she move to IL?
 
2013-03-07 02:40:38 PM  
Farks sake, we just got done with the last election.  Can we please wait 2 years before discussing the next one?
 
vpb [TotalFark]
2013-03-07 02:40:40 PM  
Hillbilly Jim:

What in the blue hell has prepared her for SCOTUS seat?

Pretty much everything she has done.  There is no need to be a judge to be appointed to the Supreme Court.
 
2013-03-07 02:41:43 PM  
Forget Christie, Rubio et al. Keep your eye on this lady:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjbtxupVo6I&feature=youtube_gdata&ht ml 5=1
 
2013-03-07 02:42:20 PM  

Hillbilly Jim: What in the blue hell has prepared her for SCOTUS seat?

/Voted for her in the 2008 primary


Being ridiculously smart and near the top of her class at Yale Law?

The norm of SCOTUS justices being federal judges first is a relatively new thing. Historically, about 1/3 of the appointees had no prior judicial experience. Obviously Kagan just recently came from a post as Solicitor General. Not too long ago Rehnquist came from an AG job. Earl Warren was actually Governor first, and had run for President.

I don't think Clinton would ever be nominated for a SCOTUS position, and confirming her would be problematic, but I agree with whoever made the original post that she has a keen enough mind that she could do a decent job at it.

As opposed to say, Harriet Miers, who would just have embarrassed herself.
 
2013-03-07 02:43:16 PM  
As much as I would personally love for Hillary to run and have wanted to vote for her since Bill's presidency - she's 65 and she had a blood clot in her freakin' brain only two months ago. That's not the sort of thing you can just shake off. So, yeah, I think she has slightly more important things to worry about at this point in time.
 
2013-03-07 02:43:45 PM  
HILLARY ISN'T RUNNING

FIND ANOTHER CANDIDATE

STOP SLOBBERING THE CLINTON KNOB FOR FIVE MINUTES
 
2013-03-07 02:45:25 PM  

Gosling: HILLARY ISN'T RUNNING

FIND ANOTHER CANDIDATE

STOP SLOBBERING THE CLINTON KNOB FOR FIVE MINUTES


Mind your own business.

Love,
ML
 
2013-03-07 02:46:40 PM  
Are we really doing this just 4 months after the election? Jesus tap-dancing Christ!
 
2013-03-07 02:47:31 PM  

EighthDay: Supes: Honestly I think Rubio eeks out the 2016 GOP nomination. He has the whole Latino thing working against him of course, but the GOP has been gung-ho about trying to salvage some segment of the Latino vote, and they perceive this as the best way. He'll have a tough time getting states in the deep south, but will do great elsewhere.  Christie is just not crazy enough to win the primaries.

As for the Democrat entry, despite all the speculation I'm not sure Hillary will even seek it. Blasphemy, I know, but I think 2008 took a lot out of her. She seems to prefer operating in a little smaller spotlight. Joe Biden WILL seek it out, but I don't think he'll win. After a hard-fought campaign, I think Mark Warner will emerge as the candidate, with a woman (Gillibrand? Klobuchar?) as his VP choice.

Warner vs. Rubio in 2016 would be a fun battle.

I had to look up Warner, because I honestly know nothing about the man.

Checked out where he stands on actual policies, thinking he was just another conservative Democrat from VA...

And ended up liking most of what I saw.  He's still far too much of an authoritarian for me, but on economics and most social policy, I either don't disagree or only mildly disagree.

Not bad, assuming the guy has the charisma and gravitas for the campaign (again, I know nothing about the man, so he may.)


I agree, he doesn't look bad.  I've been a big fan of this guy for a couple years though:

http://www.ontheissues.org/senate/ron_wyden.htm  Ron Wyden

He's also very technology-literate, which will be even more vitally important in the coming years.
 
2013-03-07 02:47:45 PM  
Go on, subby...
 
2013-03-07 02:49:59 PM  
He might have some trouble.

0.tqn.com
 
2013-03-07 02:50:30 PM  
Such early polls mean NOTHING, it's just political wanking.

There hasn't been one gaffe, one gotchya, one embarrassing video, open mike moment, "47% comment", no documentation of being gay, or visiting prostitutes, or a slew of other things that could reverse everything.

Not to mention if another 9/11 happened, or an upturn/downturn of the economy...

Just political wanking.
 
2013-03-07 02:50:41 PM  

Lost Thought 00: Kuta: Has to be said, again, and ad nauseam until the election...

HILLARY CANNOT WIN IN 2016. SHE WILL BE TOO OLD. SHE HAS TOO MUCH BAGGAGE.

She was a great Secretary of State. She'll make a great Senator from Illnois, or a decent Supreme Court Justice. But she is not the right Democrat for 2016. Start looking for real alternatives.

Why would she move to IL?



Why did she move to New York?
 
2013-03-07 02:52:05 PM  
really? ALREADY? America JUST finished with the last election. How about you lot concentrate on NOW instead of in 4 years?
 
2013-03-07 02:53:37 PM  

Kuta: Has to be said, again, and ad nauseam until the election...

HILLARY CANNOT WIN IN 2016. SHE WILL BE TOO OLD. SHE HAS TOO MUCH BAGGAGE.

She was a great Secretary of State. She'll make a great Senator from Illnois, or a decent Supreme Court Justice. But she is not the right Democrat for 2016. Start looking for real alternatives.


You sound concerned.
 
2013-03-07 02:54:50 PM  
Poll shows that Christie is strongest Republican

Christie lifts hundreds of pounds on a regular basis.  Heh.  Heh heh.

Seriously though, somebody post that video of the fat guy lifting a helicopter.  Fat people are hella strong.
 
2013-03-07 02:56:41 PM  
What does Nate Silver say about this?

/Just let him pick the President from now on.
//Think of the time and money saved.
 
2013-03-07 02:57:10 PM  

Kuta: Has to be said, again, and ad nauseam until the election...

HILLARY CANNOT WIN IN 2016. SHE WILL BE TOO OLD. SHE HAS TOO MUCH BAGGAGE.

She was a great Secretary of State. She'll make a great Senator from Illnois, or a decent Supreme Court Justice. But she is not the right Democrat for 2016. Start looking for real alternatives.


Republican like typing detected
 
2013-03-07 02:57:48 PM  
I have to figure Republicans have something rich on Hillary. Did you see how quick they were to push backing her over Obama in 2008? Did you see how hard they were pushing the idea that Obama should totally take Biden off the ticket and add Hillary as a running mate in 2012?

Even if they didn't, prepare to hear "what difference at this point does it make" to be repeated out of context for 8 months straight as shorthand for "Hillary doesn't care about dead Americans."
 
2013-03-07 02:59:17 PM  
Am I the only one who wants to see what kind of shiatpile the 2016 GOP primaries are? Might even be better than 2012...

// unless the Crazy Train candidate actually wins them this time
// we expect Sleazy 80s Guy to win the primary with GodSquad McBiblebeater riding shotgun, not the other way 'round
 
2013-03-07 02:59:20 PM  
Only a Democrat could testify like she did on Benghazi and remain popular.
 
2013-03-07 03:00:51 PM  

Emposter: Poll shows that Christie is strongest Republican

Christie lifts hundreds of pounds on a regular basis.  Heh.  Heh heh.

Seriously though, somebody post that video of the fat guy lifting a helicopter.  Fat people are hella strong inertially gifted.

 
2013-03-07 03:01:26 PM  

farkstorm: Lost Thought 00: Kuta: Has to be said, again, and ad nauseam until the election...

HILLARY CANNOT WIN IN 2016. SHE WILL BE TOO OLD. SHE HAS TOO MUCH BAGGAGE.

She was a great Secretary of State. She'll make a great Senator from Illnois, or a decent Supreme Court Justice. But she is not the right Democrat for 2016. Start looking for real alternatives.

Why would she move to IL?


Why did she move to New York?


Better pizza
 
2013-03-07 03:01:53 PM  

randomjsa: Only a Democrat could testify like she did on Benghazi and remain popular.


upload.wikimedia.org

Weapons sales to Iran? What are weapons? How about a jelly bean?
 
2013-03-07 03:02:00 PM  

Grungehamster: I have to figure Republicans have something rich on Hillary. Did you see how quick they were to push backing her over Obama in 2008? Did you see how hard they were pushing the idea that Obama should totally take Biden off the ticket and add Hillary as a running mate in 2012?

Even if they didn't, prepare to hear "what difference at this point does it make" to be repeated out of context for 8 months straight as shorthand for "Hillary doesn't care about dead Americans."


Honestly, at this point I don't know whether that's actually true, or whether they've just all deluded themselves into believing that the average American hates Hillary as much as the right wing does and would absolutely never vote for her in a general election.
 
2013-03-07 03:02:11 PM  
I've been saying since Obama won the election that the next president will be the winner of the Democratic primary. The general won't even matter.

Why? Simple, no electable Republican can survive the Republican primary. And it's not even close. The process seems designed to produce candidates that are so to the right of the general public, that Democrats could run the exhumed corpse of Chavez as their presidential candidate, and people would still vote for the him over what the Republicans are running.
 
2013-03-07 03:02:49 PM  

Smoking GNU: really? ALREADY? America JUST finished with the last election. How about you lot concentrate on NOW instead of in 4 years?


There are people already planning 2020. This election thing is getting out of control.
 
2013-03-07 03:03:41 PM  

xanadian: That was a mental image I could've done without.  Now, excuse me while I go clear my head.

[i249.photobucket.com image 85x85]


yep
 
2013-03-07 03:03:49 PM  

Gosling: HILLARY ISN'T RUNNING

FIND ANOTHER CANDIDATE

STOP SLOBBERING THE CLINTON KNOB FOR FIVE MINUTES


Wishful thinking much?

Being POTUS has been the focus of her life for the past 6 years and isn't going to go away. She wants a quiet life as gramdma about as much as Maggie Thatcher in 1980, and is every bit as ambitious. She'd going to be our next president, so you might as well lean back and enjoy it.
 
2013-03-07 03:05:56 PM  
sorry, but Hil is the one candidate that, assuming the R party manages to nominate somone who appears sane, guarantees a D loss.

/ that's a biiiig if, though.
 
2013-03-07 03:06:08 PM  

HotWingConspiracy: randomjsa: Only a Democrat could testify like she did on Benghazi and remain popular.

[upload.wikimedia.org image 220x275]

Weapons sales to Iran? What are weapons? How about a jelly bean?


There you go again.
 
2013-03-07 03:06:46 PM  

Stone Meadow: Being POTUS has been the focus of her life for the past 6 years and isn't going to go away. She wants a quiet life as gramdma about as much as Maggie Thatcher in 1980, and is every bit as ambitious. She'd going to be our next president, so you might as well lean back and enjoy it.


I'm going to enjoy watching the GOP implode into Whigs 2 Electric Boogalo when she gets elected
 
2013-03-07 03:08:38 PM  

MyKingdomForYourHorse: Stone Meadow: Being POTUS has been the focus of her life for the past 6 years and isn't going to go away. She wants a quiet life as gramdma about as much as Maggie Thatcher in 1980, and is every bit as ambitious. She'd going to be our next president, so you might as well lean back and enjoy it.

I'm going to enjoy watching the GOP implode into Whigs 2 Electric Boogalo when she gets elected


Any odds on who will be the first Republitard to call her a biatch in public? ;^)
 
2013-03-07 03:12:17 PM  

randomjsa: Only a Democrat could testify like she did on Benghazi and remain popular.


www.rjgeib.com "Hey wassup? Is Benghazi a scandal yet?"
 
2013-03-07 03:12:45 PM  
If Christie would renounce the bible pounding faction during a campaign I'd vote for him over most people.
 
2013-03-07 03:13:11 PM  

randomjsa: Only a Democrat could testify like she did on Benghazi and remain popular.


"waaaahhh why dont people like us?"

Really? Not even trying anymore. =(
 
2013-03-07 03:13:28 PM  

Summer Glau's Love Slave: What does Nate Silver say about this?

/Just let him pick the President from now on.
//Think of the time and money saved.


At this point, I'm willing to be he says "not enough data."
 
2013-03-07 03:14:09 PM  
The GOP will run a Latino female.......because they honestly think that is all it takes to make amends with minorities.
 
2013-03-07 03:15:59 PM  

Citrate1007: a Latino female


A Latina?
 
2013-03-07 03:18:02 PM  

Cheron: TuteTibiImperes: I like Christie, and I agree that if I were going to vote for a republican he seems like one of the best options (still like Jon Huntsman too).

Of course, it won't really matter in the end.  The next election is Hillary's in a landslide as long as she doesn't do something monumentally boneheaded.  Hopefully putting Hillary in office would put Bill into an even more active position.

neither stands a chance with hardcore Republicans that vote in primaries


Since when do Teatards vote in Democratic primaries?
 
2013-03-07 03:18:55 PM  

vernonFL: Citrate1007: a Latino female

A Latina?


But not a wise one with the courage of her convictions.

// that's socialism
// and a seat away from lesbianism
 
2013-03-07 03:19:09 PM  

mahuika: Pff, stupid liberal media polls putting Libs against Libs. We all know who the real contenders are.

[www.cathousechat.com image 400x343]


In my dreams, the Crazy Train splits off from the RINOs and we end up with a 3 party race.

Oh, the LULZ we'd have.
 
2013-03-07 03:19:33 PM  

Huggermugger: Cheron: TuteTibiImperes: I like Christie, and I agree that if I were going to vote for a republican he seems like one of the best options (still like Jon Huntsman too).

Of course, it won't really matter in the end.  The next election is Hillary's in a landslide as long as she doesn't do something monumentally boneheaded.  Hopefully putting Hillary in office would put Bill into an even more active position.

neither stands a chance with hardcore Republicans that vote in primaries

Since when do Teatards vote in Democratic primaries?


I had to read it a couple times too, but I think "neither" refers to Christie and Huntsman, not Christie and Clinton.
 
2013-03-07 03:19:37 PM  
I'm not so sure he'd make it through the primaries.

I think he'd win New Hampshire easily and probably either win or come within the top 3 in Iowa but after that it's debatable he can win in elections when generally only crazy diehards come out in the South and Midwest.
 
2013-03-07 03:21:48 PM  

Fluorescent Testicle: [words]


Clarification: I'll still be voting for her proudly if she does decide to run (she's probably the most qualified person in the country), I just think that the news cycle needs to lay off her for a while and let her recover.

Also, it's not even close to being 2016 yet, but mostly the health scare thing.
 
2013-03-07 03:22:24 PM  
Christies problem is his party. He's a moderate in a party that believes that ideological purity is an imperative. He can either try to repackage himself as an extremist, so he could win the GOP primaries but face significant problems in the general election, or he could maintain his reasonable, relatively moderate positions, and lose to some jackass like Rand Paul.
 
2013-03-07 03:23:10 PM  

Citrate1007: The GOP will run a Latino female.......because they honestly think that is all it takes to make amends with minorities.


They don't give their token [insert discriminated group here] positions of power.  They give them positions worthy of their token status, like Chair of the Committee for Procuring Kitchen Supplies and Napkins.
 
2013-03-07 03:23:39 PM  
I love predicting politics! It makes me look so smart!!
 
2013-03-07 03:24:15 PM  

Emposter: Summer Glau's Love Slave: What does Nate Silver say about this?

/Just let him pick the President from now on.
//Think of the time and money saved.

At this point, I'm willing to be he says "not enough data."


He's already posted this article about how much the bloom is off the rose for Christie with Republicans.
 
2013-03-07 03:26:36 PM  
You've finally done it internet. You went and invented something I couldn't fap to.
Now please dispose of this thread properly before rule 34 kicks into effect.

dl.dropbox.com
 
2013-03-07 03:28:39 PM  
www.misterfadedglory.com

/you're a jerk, subby
 
2013-03-07 03:29:19 PM  
What about Meeeeeeeeeeeee? Miss meee yet?

upload.democraticunderground.com
 
2013-03-07 03:30:09 PM  

Grungehamster: Emposter: Summer Glau's Love Slave: What does Nate Silver say about this?

/Just let him pick the President from now on.
//Think of the time and money saved.

At this point, I'm willing to be he says "not enough data."

He's already posted this article about how much the bloom is off the rose for Christie with Republicans.


Interesting, when did Nate start posting opinion pieces without data?

He's a well written, really smart guy, and very well informed, but if he doesn't stick to the math and starts getting into the nonsense-half of political so-called-analysis, he's gonna end up like all the other "experts"--saying something stupid and getting discredited.

He's got the math-based-politics territory well dominated...he doesn't need to expand into the bullshiat-based-politics territory that everyone else wins and make himself look bad.  I like him better as the aloof super-math-prophet.
 
2013-03-07 03:30:49 PM  
Mark my words: Christie is the only Republican I'm afraid of. Clinton is very popular because she has been quietly doing a good job, but forcing her to debate Christie will even things out. He's tenacious, and has a way of making liberal policies sound very silly in front of a camera, even to common people that would actually be helped by a net shift to the left in this country.
 
2013-03-07 03:31:03 PM  
but what if another big storm hits Jersey & he accepts federal relief... again?

NO true conservative could ever forgive such concern or care for ones constituency without, wait a minute, If only there were some way he could channel relief funds into corporate hands and trickle it down to the roaches of society.
 
2013-03-07 03:32:25 PM  

firefly212: Christies problem is his party. He's a moderate in a party that believes that ideological purity is an imperative. He can either try to repackage himself as an extremist, so he could win the GOP primaries but face significant problems in the general election, or he could maintain his reasonable, relatively moderate positions, and lose to some jackass like Rand Paul.


Christie's problem is that it is a race. A marathon no less. I
 
2013-03-07 03:32:35 PM  

Isitoveryet: but what if another big storm hits Jersey & he accepts federal relief... again?

NO true conservative could ever forgive such concern or care for ones constituency without, wait a minute, If only there were some way he could channel relief funds into corporate hands and trickle it down to the roaches of society.


I'm pretty sure that if he did that he'd automatically become Governor of Florida...
 
2013-03-07 03:33:00 PM  
www.oocities.org
 
2013-03-07 03:34:03 PM  

Satanic_Hamster: TuteTibiImperes: I like Christie, and I agree that if I were going to vote for a republican he seems like one of the best options (still like Jon Huntsman too).

Of course, it won't really matter in the end.  The next election is Hillary's in a landslide as long as she doesn't do something monumentally boneheaded.  Hopefully putting Hillary in office would put Bill into an even more active position.

I have concerns about her doing something stupid.  Like the "dodging sniper fire" gate incident.


Clinton has to walk on eggshells to get the country behind her. She's popular now because she has been able to rise above the political fray and do an important job with little fanfare. Once she gets into TV ads and debates, it's going to be a very fine line between acting like a sentimental pushover and a bully. Remember in the primaries she was called a biatchy ice queen, and then criticized for crying two weeks later. It is VERY, VERY tricky for a female politician to show any kind of personality, anger, sadness, or to be anything that distinguishes her from a robot.
 
2013-03-07 03:36:08 PM  

Tommy Moo: Mark my words: Christie is the only Republican I'm afraid of. Clinton is very popular because she has been quietly doing a good job, but forcing her to debate Christie will even things out. He's tenacious, and has a way of making liberal policies sound very silly in front of a camera, even to common people that would actually be helped by a net shift to the left in this country.


Granted, but it'll never get to that point, because the Teatards will pull him down like a pack of zombies.

It's going to be Rubio for the GOP, and Hillary is going to wipe the floor with him.
 
2013-03-07 03:36:18 PM  

ha-ha-guy: Hillary's done due to age and the medical history.  It would have been okay for Obama to let her ride out 4 more years of SoS duty as a victory lap (with a strong deputy SoS to mind the store if another medical issue occurred).  She'd be 69 by 2016 and 73 by 2020.  So even if she won in 2016, there would be considerations about her ability to run for a second term as an incumbent.  Obama's only 51 and he looked worn down after one term.


I'll be worried about her age if she can't stand behind a podium for 90 minutes and stay mentally sharp enough to wipe the floor with Bobby Jindal or whatever cornball the GOP nominates. Politicians, like other rich people, tend to live into their 80s.
 
2013-03-07 03:36:30 PM  
4 years before the last election, Romney appeared to be just like Christie.

In 2004, McCain seemed like a good ol' fashioned moderate.

George Bush ran as a "compassionate" conservative to set himself apart from those right-wing authoritarians.

Funny how it all changes, the closer they get to the presidency. It's almost like there's something controlling them when they get closer to more power.
 
2013-03-07 03:37:11 PM  

randomjsa: Only a Democrat could testify like she did on Benghazi and remain popular.


www.thepomoblog.com
 
2013-03-07 03:37:33 PM  

way south: You've finally done it internet. You went and invented something I couldn't fap to.
Now please dispose of this thread properly before rule 34 kicks into effect.


Take subby's headline and pretend monica lewinsky wants to stash a new dress in her closet "just in case" courtesy of you while you watch the recoil and waves caused by subby's headline.

/worked for me
//or pretend christie is a bronie
 
2013-03-07 03:38:01 PM  
Supes:
Oh I know he's Cuban. It'll allow him to win Florida, but hurt in states like California.

What on earth makes you think all Hispanics in Florida are Cuban or like Cubans?
 
2013-03-07 03:39:11 PM  

Stone Meadow: Any odds on who will be the first Republitard to call her a biatch in public? ;^)


Assuming Boehner hasn't been primaried into non existence, we already get the ass bomb out of the way this year so I'll put my money on that horse.
 
2013-03-07 03:39:35 PM  

Tommy Moo: Mark my words: Christie is the only Republican I'm afraid of. Clinton is very popular because she has been quietly doing a good job, but forcing her to debate Christie will even things out. He's tenacious, and has a way of making liberal policies sound very silly in front of a camera, even to common people that would actually be helped by a net shift to the left in this country.


She will just set out a bowl of pudding next to her and he will be distracted
 
2013-03-07 03:40:19 PM  
Poll shows that Christie is strongest Republican but that Hillary would ride him like a horse in a match-up

She's into fatties?

or vice versa?
 
2013-03-07 03:40:48 PM  

Emposter: Interesting, when did Nate start posting opinion pieces without data?

He's a well written, really smart guy, and very well informed, but if he doesn't stick to the math and starts getting into the nonsense-half of political so-called-analysis, he's gonna end up like all the other "experts"--saying something stupid and getting discredited.

He's got the math-based-politics territory well dominated...he doesn't need to expand into the bullshiat-based-politics territory that everyone else wins and make himself look bad. I like him better as the aloof super-math-prophet.


Silver's one data-point was that Christie wasn't invited to the CPAC orgy, where he's previously been welcome.  It's more of a 0/I thing than a % thing.  YMMV
 
2013-03-07 03:41:05 PM  

Supes: Honestly I think Rubio eeks out the 2016 GOP nomination. He has the whole Latino thing working against him of course, but the GOP has been gung-ho about trying to salvage some segment of the Latino vote, and they perceive this as the best way. He'll have a tough time getting states in the deep south, but will do great elsewhere.  Christie is just not crazy enough to win the primaries..


One of the interesting myths about the Republican primaries is how Rick Perry imploded because of his poor debate performance. That wasn't the case, even after the disastrous debates he was still polling well with GOP Voters. They turned on him when R-Money brought up the fact he treated illegal immigrant high school students like actual human beings.

Rubio's stance on immigration will make him radioactive in 4 years.

Christie became the GOP darling because he acted like an asshole to everybody around him, since most people in NJ are Democrats/Liberals this is what TeaTards live for.

But with all that being said, the true soul and guiding principles of can be garnered from the Jeb Bush Immigrant Flip-Flop-Flip. Nobody knows what the fark a republican is thinking.
 
2013-03-07 03:42:24 PM  
Here's hoping she doesn't make it out of the primary and we never find out.
 
2013-03-07 03:42:52 PM  
*scans headline*
*forms mental image*
blog.wtfconcept.com
 
2013-03-07 03:42:52 PM  
mahuika:
Pff, stupid liberal media polls putting Libs against Libs. We all know who the real contenders are.

www.cathousechat.com

Too bad for them there's no Special Olympics of federal politics.
 
2013-03-07 03:43:46 PM  
If Christie did run, any bets on whether he would carry New Jersey? He did ok during Sandy, but pissed off a LOT of teachers and cops. Plus we're pretty blue to begin with. It would be embarrassing if he didn't carry his own home state.
 
2013-03-07 03:44:49 PM  

Stone Meadow: Tommy Moo: Mark my words: Christie is the only Republican I'm afraid of. Clinton is very popular because she has been quietly doing a good job, but forcing her to debate Christie will even things out. He's tenacious, and has a way of making liberal policies sound very silly in front of a camera, even to common people that would actually be helped by a net shift to the left in this country.

Granted, but it'll never get to that point, because the Teatards will pull him down like a pack of zombies.


Yeah. Republicans would never nominate a "moderate" Governor from a blue northeastern state.
 
2013-03-07 03:45:42 PM  

No Such Agency: Too bad for them there's no Special Olympics of federal politics.


Have you seen what Texas sends to Washington?
 
2013-03-07 03:46:14 PM  

Emposter: Citrate1007: The GOP will run a Latino female.......because they honestly think that is all it takes to make amends with minorities.

They don't give their token [insert discriminated group here] positions of power.  They give them positions worthy of their token status, like Chair of the Committee for Procuring Kitchen Supplies and Napkins.


Or "Head of telling obvious lies to the UN"
 
2013-03-07 03:46:50 PM  

MyKingdomForYourHorse: Stone Meadow: Any odds on who will be the first Republitard to call her a biatch in public? ;^)

Assuming Boehner hasn't been primaried into non existence, we already get the ass bomb out of the way this year so I'll put my money on that horse.


There is that...I recall the Ohio Tea Party threatened him with "nice speakership you got there, mr Boehner, it'd be too bad if something happened to it" last year.

The DNC will take the House next year or in '16, and the Teatards will be the knot of gibbering idiots over in the corner.
 
2013-03-07 03:48:55 PM  

randomjsa: Only a Democrat could testify like she did on Benghazi and remain popular.



Alberto Gonzalez approves this message.
 
2013-03-07 03:50:12 PM  

Wendy's Chili: Stone Meadow: ...the Teatards will pull him down like a pack of zombies.

Yeah. Republicans would never nominate a "moderate" Governor from a blue northeastern state.


Haven't you been paying attention? The Teatards have concluded two things from last year's debacle:

1) they didn't go far enough to the right, and

2) the message needs repackaging, not reformulating.

That is not a prescription for success in my humble opinion.
 
2013-03-07 03:54:02 PM  

redqueenmeg: Supes:
Oh I know he's Cuban. It'll allow him to win Florida, but hurt in states like California.

What on earth makes you think all Hispanics in Florida are Cuban or like Cubans?


About 1/3 of Hispanics in Florida are Cuban. I know the numbers. That, plus getting mainstream GOP support, would allow him to easily win the state in a GOP primary or a general election.
 
2013-03-07 03:55:13 PM  

TheOther: Emposter: Interesting, when did Nate start posting opinion pieces without data?

He's a well written, really smart guy, and very well informed, but if he doesn't stick to the math and starts getting into the nonsense-half of political so-called-analysis, he's gonna end up like all the other "experts"--saying something stupid and getting discredited.

He's got the math-based-politics territory well dominated...he doesn't need to expand into the bullshiat-based-politics territory that everyone else wins and make himself look bad. I like him better as the aloof super-math-prophet.

Silver's one data-point was that Christie wasn't invited to the CPAC orgy, where he's previously been welcome.  It's more of a 0/I thing than a % thing.  YMMV


Isn't there some sort of statistician saying about how anecdotes aren't data or something like that?
 
2013-03-07 03:56:56 PM  

Stone Meadow: There is that...I recall the Ohio Tea Party threatened him with "nice speakership you got there, mr Boehner, it'd be too bad if something happened to it" last year.

The DNC will take the House next year or in '16, and the Teatards will be the knot of gibbering idiots over in the corner.


Pretty sure if the House finally flips it will be 2016, Dems will hold the line in both House and Senate which will be a buck trend historically and then in the impending implosion will take the House. Now we just will have to work on these god farking awful state houses and govs.

I honestly see Boehner being one of the ones that begins the breaking ranks implosion
 
2013-03-07 03:58:46 PM  
Could be worse, Submitter.

i.imgur.com

/awesome movie
 
2013-03-07 03:59:02 PM  

MyKingdomForYourHorse: Pretty sure if the House finally flips it will be 2016, Dems will hold the line in both House and Senate which will be a buck trend historically and then in the impending implosion will take the House. Now we just will have to work on these god farking awful state houses and govs.

I honestly see Boehner being one of the ones that begins the breaking ranks implosion


It's just too damn gerrymandered. The Dems might gain a couple seats here and there in the next couple elections, but control of the House won't change till 2020.
 
2013-03-07 03:59:44 PM  

Supes: redqueenmeg: Supes:
Oh I know he's Cuban. It'll allow him to win Florida, but hurt in states like California.

What on earth makes you think all Hispanics in Florida are Cuban or like Cubans?

About 1/3 of Hispanics in Florida are Cuban. I know the numbers. That, plus getting mainstream GOP support, would allow him to easily win the state in a GOP primary or a general election.


A primary, certainly, since most Florida Hispanics who are Republican are likely Cuban or Cuban-friendly.  General election? Easily?  No.  You may recall Florida has not always gone red, and I don't know a single Hispanic here who would vote race over party.  He MIGHT be able to win a general, though I doubt it, since he would not even have his Senate seat if there hadn't been a third-party spoiler, which everyone likes to forget.  But even if he could win a general, it definitely wouldn't be "easily."

So, no.
 
2013-03-07 04:00:17 PM  

Lord_Baull: randomjsa: Only a Democrat could testify like she did on Benghazi and remain popular.


Alberto Gonzalez approves this message.


Bert Gonzales was always a Bush toady, though - no one ever expected much out of him. Bert testified in multiple hearings, and did a worse job than Hillary by far in each of them. Bert can't find a job anymore because of how shiatty a legal/professional mind/reputation he has.

// Ollie North and Gordon Liddy are better examples, because the right farking LOVES those weasels
// I don't even think Bert's mom likes him anymore
 
2013-03-07 04:05:11 PM  
Too bad Christie would finish no higher than 4th in a GOP Primary.
 
2013-03-07 04:07:29 PM  
Laughing at anyone who thinks Hillary will be "too old".   She's a babyboomer, and babyboomers will be the biggest age demo that votes in 2016 by a  considerable margin.
 
2013-03-07 04:08:22 PM  

dionysusaur: sorry, but Hil is the one candidate that, assuming the R party manages to nominate somone who appears sane, guarantees a D loss.

/ that's a biiiig if, though.


Yeah, that's the problem right there.

Like in the last two races,  the second-place finisher in the last GOP primary has a good shot in '16;  Santorum managed to last through the entire primary season (unlike the wingnuts who peaked early and never made it to the primaries), so he has a national infrastructure of campaign workers for the next time around.  The GOP tightened their primary rules last time (I think there were a few states where Gingrich couldn't get on the ballot), so regardless of his numerous negatives, Santorum has a big advantage over anyone who didn't run in the last campaign.

/I tried to work "Santorum ran" or "Santorum is spreading" in there, just for lulz.
 
2013-03-07 04:09:05 PM  

InmanRoshi: Laughing at anyone who thinks Hillary will be "too old".   She's a babyboomer, and babyboomers will be the biggest age demo that votes in 2016 by a  considerable margin.


Forgot to add she's the same age as Mitt.
 
2013-03-07 04:10:14 PM  

redqueenmeg: e MIGHT be able to win a general, though I doubt it, since he would not even have his Senate seat if there hadn't been a third-party spoiler, which everyone likes to forget.


Really, only won because of a third-party spoiler? That's rewriting history.

Crist and Meek, combined, got 49.91% of the vote. Rubio by himself got 48.89% of the vote.

Did Rubio get less? Of course... I can't argue with math. But if 3rd-party Crist wasn't in the race, there is no way that 100% of his vote goes to Meek. Probably about half of it would have gone to Rubio, giving him a landslide.

It would be somewhat reasonable to say Meek was a Democratic spoiler preventing the 3rd-party Crist to win, but even then the sheer math of this makes it incredibly unlikely.Rubio got damn near half the vote all by himself. Taking away any of the major competitors would almost certainly put him over half.
 
2013-03-07 04:11:26 PM  

Supes: MyKingdomForYourHorse: Pretty sure if the House finally flips it will be 2016, Dems will hold the line in both House and Senate which will be a buck trend historically and then in the impending implosion will take the House. Now we just will have to work on these god farking awful state houses and govs.

I honestly see Boehner being one of the ones that begins the breaking ranks implosion

It's just too damn gerrymandered. The Dems might gain a couple seats here and there in the next couple elections, but control of the House won't change till 2020.


True, I wouldn't stake my life on the DNC taking the House in any particular election for the reason you offer. OTOH, even with gerrymandering a lot of high-profile GOP Reps came close to losing, including Bachmann, Ryan and others. The real challenge for the GOP is the Tea Party, not the Dems until after redistricting for the '22 elections. Look at how many establishment GOPers have been primaried out only to have the Teatard lose to a mainstream Dem in elections the GOP should have had a lock on. A few more rounds of that and the DNC could have unitary government.
 
2013-03-07 04:12:30 PM  

HighOnCraic: dionysusaur: sorry, but Hil is the one candidate that, assuming the R party manages to nominate somone who appears sane, guarantees a D loss.

/ that's a biiiig if, though.

Yeah, that's the problem right there.

Like in the last two races,  the second-place finisher in the last GOP primary has a good shot in '16;  Santorum managed to last through the entire primary season (unlike the wingnuts who peaked early and never made it to the primaries), so he has a national infrastructure of campaign workers for the next time around.  The GOP tightened their primary rules last time (I think there were a few states where Gingrich couldn't get on the ballot), so regardless of his numerous negatives, Santorum has a big advantage over anyone who didn't run in the last campaign.

/I tried to work "Santorum ran" or "Santorum is spreading" in there, just for lulz.


Game of thrones it.

"SANTORUM IS CUMMING!"

/enjoy that image
 
2013-03-07 04:13:17 PM  

Kuta: Has to be said, again, and ad nauseam until the election...

HILLARY CANNOT WIN IN 2016. SHE WILL BE TOO OLD. SHE HAS TOO MUCH BAGGAGE.

She was a great Secretary of State. She'll make a great Senator from Illnois, or a decent Supreme Court Justice. But she is not the right Democrat for 2016. Start looking for real alternatives.


I honestly doubt she'll even run in 2016.  With her recent health problems, I doubt she'd even want to deal with the stress of The Big Chair.
 
2013-03-07 04:14:28 PM  

Gyrfalcon: Smoking GNU: really? ALREADY? America JUST finished with the last election. How about you lot concentrate on NOW instead of in 4 years?

There are people already planning 2020. This election thing is getting out of control.


This is the shiat that separates the rock-bottom, mainlining, thoroughly hooked politics junkies from the poseurs. The rush is exhilarating, but coming down is a biatch.
 
2013-03-07 04:15:53 PM  

Emposter: TheOther: Emposter: Interesting, when did Nate start posting opinion pieces without data?

He's a well written, really smart guy, and very well informed, but if he doesn't stick to the math and starts getting into the nonsense-half of political so-called-analysis, he's gonna end up like all the other "experts"--saying something stupid and getting discredited.

He's got the math-based-politics territory well dominated...he doesn't need to expand into the bullshiat-based-politics territory that everyone else wins and make himself look bad. I like him better as the aloof super-math-prophet.

Silver's one data-point was that Christie wasn't invited to the CPAC orgy, where he's previously been welcome.  It's more of a 0/I thing than a % thing.  YMMV

Isn't there some sort of statistician saying about how anecdotes aren't data or something like that?


The fact that he's been invited in the past but wasn't invited this year is a freaking horrible sign for his potential campaign in the primaries (but if he somehow managed to win, he could use it in his favor in the general election).  It may be just an anecdote, or it may be a sign that the base has already turned against him.  There's still plenty of time to turn that around, but the only way he can please the base is to reach out in ways that will hurt him with independents, kinda like the last moderate Governor of a blue northeastern state that won the GOP nomination.
 
2013-03-07 04:20:15 PM  

Supes: the GOP has been gung-ho about trying to salvage some segment of the Latino vote, and they perceive this as the best way.


That lasted about 2 weeks.
 
2013-03-07 04:21:54 PM  

BMulligan: Gyrfalcon: Smoking GNU: really? ALREADY? America JUST finished with the last election. How about you lot concentrate on NOW instead of in 4 years?

There are people already planning 2020. This election thing is getting out of control.

This is the shiat that separates the rock-bottom, mainlining, thoroughly hooked politics junkies from the poseurs. The rush is exhilarating, but coming down is a biatch.


imgs.xkcd.com
 
2013-03-07 04:22:31 PM  
Ha-Ha! Smithers! this reminds me of that fat man I used to ride to work!
 
2013-03-07 04:23:06 PM  

HighOnCraic: Emposter: TheOther: Emposter: Interesting, when did Nate start posting opinion pieces without data?

He's a well written, really smart guy, and very well informed, but if he doesn't stick to the math and starts getting into the nonsense-half of political so-called-analysis, he's gonna end up like all the other "experts"--saying something stupid and getting discredited.

He's got the math-based-politics territory well dominated...he doesn't need to expand into the bullshiat-based-politics territory that everyone else wins and make himself look bad. I like him better as the aloof super-math-prophet.

Silver's one data-point was that Christie wasn't invited to the CPAC orgy, where he's previously been welcome.  It's more of a 0/I thing than a % thing.  YMMV

Isn't there some sort of statistician saying about how anecdotes aren't data or something like that?

The fact that he's been invited in the past but wasn't invited this year is a freaking horrible sign for his potential campaign in the primaries (but if he somehow managed to win, he could use it in his favor in the general election).  It may be just an anecdote, or it may be a sign that the base has already turned against him.  There's still plenty of time to turn that around, but the only way he can please the base is to reach out in ways that will hurt him with independents, kinda like the last moderate Governor of a blue northeastern state that won the GOP nomination.


"May be."  I don't come to Nate Silver for "may be"s, dammit!  I come to Silver for a guru floating a few inches off the floor pointing in random directions and calling "heads, heads, tails, heads" for coins being dropped at cash registers miles away!

As for Christie, you don't need to be a super math dude to know that good GOP general candidates are often bad GOP primary candidates because GOP primaries are dominated by psychopaths and the general is aimed more at moderates.  And not being invited to CPAC is probably a bad sign.

But that's the kind of thing I expect the idiot experts that are 50% wrong 100% of the time to tell me from rerun 57684587694539685 of whatever is playing on CNN, not from Nate Silver.
 
2013-03-07 04:25:39 PM  

HeartBurnKid: I honestly doubt she'll even run in 2016. With her recent health problems, I doubt she'd even want to deal with the stress of The Big Chair.


Please, she's going to run.  She resigned from Secretary of State without any further plans specifically to get ready for the gear up.  The  Hillary Clinton for President organization already has started collecting cash.   Both Bill and Chelsea have been talking up how great her health is in public.    She's wanted to be POTUS more than anything in her entire life, she's not going to turn down the opportunity when the DNC will hand her the nomination by default and the GOP is now a fringe National Party.
 
2013-03-07 04:26:49 PM  

RexTalionis: There's an image that you need to scour out of your brain with Brillo.


Yeah...Think I will be stopping at the package store on the way home for some 125 proof brain-bleach.

/ah, who am I kiddin.  I was going to do that anyway.
 
2013-03-07 04:29:18 PM  

HighOnCraic: The fact that he's been invited in the past but wasn't invited this year is a freaking horrible sign for his potential campaign in the primaries (but if he somehow managed to win, he could use it in his favor in the general election). It may be just an anecdote, or it may be a sign that the base has already turned against him.


He's a shoot off at the mouth Northeasterner running in a regional Southern Party, he's been pallin' around with the "blah" President and he's openly criticized the GOP repeatedly.  His national aspirations inside the GOP are done for.
 
2013-03-07 04:29:27 PM  

Supes: redqueenmeg: e MIGHT be able to win a general, though I doubt it, since he would not even have his Senate seat if there hadn't been a third-party spoiler, which everyone likes to forget.

Really, only won because of a third-party spoiler? That's rewriting history.

Crist and Meek, combined, got 49.91% of the vote. Rubio by himself got 48.89% of the vote.

Did Rubio get less? Of course... I can't argue with math. But if 3rd-party Crist wasn't in the race, there is no way that 100% of his vote goes to Meek. Probably about half of it would have gone to Rubio, giving him a landslide.

It would be somewhat reasonable to say Meek was a Democratic spoiler preventing the 3rd-party Crist to win, but even then the sheer math of this makes it incredibly unlikely.Rubio got damn near half the vote all by himself. Taking away any of the major competitors would almost certainly put him over half.


Crist had a lot of popularity with Democrats in this state, so I can't really say what would have happened for sure, but neither can you.

Regardless, Rubio cannot "easily" win Florida just because he is Cuban.  I don't think you would say his Senate win was just because he is Cuban.

But I'm sure you live in Florida and know all about it.
 
2013-03-07 04:29:48 PM  

Emposter: HighOnCraic: Emposter: TheOther: Emposter: Interesting, when did Nate start posting opinion pieces without data?

He's a well written, really smart guy, and very well informed, but if he doesn't stick to the math and starts getting into the nonsense-half of political so-called-analysis, he's gonna end up like all the other "experts"--saying something stupid and getting discredited.

He's got the math-based-politics territory well dominated...he doesn't need to expand into the bullshiat-based-politics territory that everyone else wins and make himself look bad. I like him better as the aloof super-math-prophet.

Silver's one data-point was that Christie wasn't invited to the CPAC orgy, where he's previously been welcome.  It's more of a 0/I thing than a % thing.  YMMV

Isn't there some sort of statistician saying about how anecdotes aren't data or something like that?

The fact that he's been invited in the past but wasn't invited this year is a freaking horrible sign for his potential campaign in the primaries (but if he somehow managed to win, he could use it in his favor in the general election).  It may be just an anecdote, or it may be a sign that the base has already turned against him.  There's still plenty of time to turn that around, but the only way he can please the base is to reach out in ways that will hurt him with independents, kinda like the last moderate Governor of a blue northeastern state that won the GOP nomination.

"May be."  I don't come to Nate Silver for "may be"s, dammit!  I come to Silver for a guru floating a few inches off the floor pointing in random directions and calling "heads, heads, tails, heads" for coins being dropped at cash registers miles away!

As for Christie, you don't need to be a super math dude to know that good GOP general candidates are often bad GOP primary candidates because GOP primaries are dominated by psychopaths and the general is aimed more at moderates.  And not being invited to CPAC is probably a bad sign.

B ...


Don't worry, we have a few more years before the anecdotes add up to data.  For, now, we'll just have to st back and listen to the lore. . .
 
2013-03-07 04:31:09 PM  

Lost Thought 00: May as well just do a name recognition survey at this point


Fark it. Lets just give it to the person voted "Most Popular".

Advisor: President Beyonce! They are on the steps of the White House, protesting your latest proposal to make trans-vaginal untrasounds mandatory before an abortion.

President Beyonce: Who?

Advisor: All the single ladies

President Beyonce: All the single ladies?

Advisor: All the single ladies.

Secret Service: Well get your hands up! Up!
 
2013-03-07 04:38:20 PM  

Drachirryz: Forget Christie, Rubio et al. Keep your eye on this lady:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjbtxupVo6I&feature=youtube_gdata&ht ml 5=1


please, she doesn't even know the difference between a forward and backslash.

Kidding.  Sort of.

But the way she pronounces her name will scare off the hardcore Repuublicans alone.

Wish I was kidding.
 
2013-03-07 04:41:04 PM  
Hillary's health would be put into play big time.   And as much good she has done as SOS, she still, has too much baggage.   Very polarizing figure.
 
2013-03-07 04:51:19 PM  

LessO2: And as much good she has done as SOS, she still, has too much baggage.


What's the baggage, though? I can only think of her husband's philandering, which has fark all to do with her, and SO MANY BENGHAZIS, which would only serve to push people away from the GOP.
 
2013-03-07 04:54:27 PM  
Fluorescent Testicle: ... which has fark all to do with her ...

[phrasing.jpg]
 
2013-03-07 04:54:51 PM  

LessO2: Hillary's health would be put into play big time.   And as much good she has done as SOS, she still, has too much baggage.   Very polarizing figure.


I would probably vote for her, depending on who else was running.  I worry about all the crap from the 90s (Travelgate, Vince Foster, etc.) being rehashed, though.
 
2013-03-07 04:58:45 PM  
I don't understand how anyone with even periphery awareness of the Republican party can possibly imagine Chris Christie making it through the primaries.
 
2013-03-07 05:01:07 PM  

Fluorescent Testicle: LessO2: And as much good she has done as SOS, she still, has too much baggage.

What's the baggage, though? I can only think of her husband's philandering, which has fark all to do with her, and SO MANY BENGHAZIS, which would only serve to push people away from the GOP.



I hear she personally killed Vince Foster. And also, she lied to Congress by asking, "What difference does it make."

Oh, and she dodged sniper fire in Bosnia. She's toxic.
 
2013-03-07 05:02:57 PM  

LessO2: Hillary's health would be put into play big time.   And as much good she has done as SOS, she still, has too much baggage.   Very polarizing figure.


She has an approval rating of about 70%.

I'd love to see who you think isn't a polarizing figure.
 
2013-03-07 05:03:55 PM  
Wouldn't Hillary ride him more lie a RINO than a horse?
 
2013-03-07 05:05:24 PM  

Newbaca: I don't understand how anyone with even periphery awareness of the Republican party can possibly imagine Chris Christie making it through the primaries.



I can see the primary ads now.
"Chris Christie. A man that dared hug the worst human being imaginable in Barak Obama. A man that dared criticize the GOP congress for not spending your tax dollars on FEMA. Do we really want a man like that with his finger on the button? Vote Sarah Palin."
 
2013-03-07 05:05:57 PM  

Fluorescent Testicle: LessO2: And as much good she has done as SOS, she still, has too much baggage.

What's the baggage, though? I can only think of her husband's philandering, which has fark all to do with her, and SO MANY BENGHAZIS, which would only serve to push people away from the GOP.


Most of it is Republican attempts at smears in the 90s:  Travelgate, Vince Foster, stuff involving the stock market, Whitewater, her alleged defense of some Black Panthers.  It's all bullshiat, not of it stuck then, but it will all be brought back, ten times louder, if she becomes the Democratic nominee in '16.
 
2013-03-07 05:06:42 PM  

Fluorescent Testicle: LessO2: And as much good she has done as SOS, she still, has too much baggage.

What's the baggage, though? I can only think of her husband's philandering, which has fark all to do with her, and SO MANY BENGHAZIS, which would only serve to push people away from the GOP.


You know ... the baggage.  Of being married to a wildly popular former President.  Of being in the White House during one of the greatest economic booms in modern history.   Of being a babyboomer when babyboomers will be, by far, the dominant voting demo in 2016.   Of being a woman when more women are engaged in the political process than ever.

All that horrible, horrible, horrible baggage.   Very polarizing ... that's why she's only currently getting a 70% approval rating.
 
2013-03-07 05:08:36 PM  

HighOnCraic: Fluorescent Testicle: LessO2: And as much good she has done as SOS, she still, has too much baggage.

What's the baggage, though? I can only think of her husband's philandering, which has fark all to do with her, and SO MANY BENGHAZIS, which would only serve to push people away from the GOP.

Most of it is Republican attempts at smears in the 90s:  Travelgate, Vince Foster, stuff involving the stock market, Whitewater, her alleged defense of some Black Panthers.  It's all bullshiat, not of it stuck then, but it will all be brought back, ten times louder, if she becomes the Democratic nominee in '16.


Which demo is that stuff going to hurt her with?  Rabid Rush Limbaugh listeners?
 
2013-03-07 05:18:50 PM  

InmanRoshi: Fluorescent Testicle: LessO2: And as much good she has done as SOS, she still, has too much baggage.

What's the baggage, though? I can only think of her husband's philandering, which has fark all to do with her, and SO MANY BENGHAZIS, which would only serve to push people away from the GOP.

You know ... the baggage.  Of being married to a wildly popular former President.  Of being in the White House during one of the greatest economic booms in modern history.   Of being a babyboomer when babyboomers will be, by far, the dominant voting demo in 2016.   Of being a woman when more women are engaged in the political process than ever.

All that horrible, horrible, horrible baggage.   Very polarizing ... that's why she's only currently getting a 70% approval rating.


I agree that the "baggage" is all nonsense, but it might hurt her if the Republicans scream it loudly enough.

/Part of me wants to hear guys like Limbaugh call for Vince Foster's body to be dug up. . .
 
2013-03-07 05:24:18 PM  

HighOnCraic: I agree that the "baggage" is all nonsense, but it might hurt her if the Republicans scream it loudly enough.


Hell no. At this point, every time the Republicans cry wolf, they lose a few thousand more voters. Even some of the trolls have been getting tired of it.
 
2013-03-07 05:26:22 PM  

Fluorescent Testicle: HighOnCraic: I agree that the "baggage" is all nonsense, but it might hurt her if the Republicans scream it loudly enough.

Hell no. At this point, every time the Republicans cry wolf, they lose a few thousand more voters. Even some of the trolls have been getting tired of it.


aww cmon, you live for that shiat, Glownads.
 
2013-03-07 05:27:38 PM  
Meh
Is this the same Hillary that was going to crush a relatively unknown senator from Illinois?
 
2013-03-07 05:30:30 PM  
I'm so damned glad Hillary beat Giuliani in the 2008 elections.
 
2013-03-07 05:33:36 PM  
That is one sexy headline.

\looking for tub of Crisco and a plastic tarp.
 
2013-03-07 05:33:58 PM  
This battle station Hillary is now the ultimate power in the universe...

4.bp.blogspot.com
 
2013-03-07 05:37:39 PM  

InmanRoshi: HighOnCraic: Fluorescent Testicle: LessO2: And as much good she has done as SOS, she still, has too much baggage.

What's the baggage, though? I can only think of her husband's philandering, which has fark all to do with her, and SO MANY BENGHAZIS, which would only serve to push people away from the GOP.

Most of it is Republican attempts at smears in the 90s:  Travelgate, Vince Foster, stuff involving the stock market, Whitewater, her alleged defense of some Black Panthers.  It's all bullshiat, not of it stuck then, but it will all be brought back, ten times louder, if she becomes the Democratic nominee in '16.

Which demo is that stuff going to hurt her with?  Rabid Rush Limbaugh listeners?


True, it might not be the decisive factor in the election (as I said, it didn't stick back then, either).  Part of me just dreads hearing it again; part of me delights in the idea of seeing the spectacle of Republicans demanding more memos from the Rose Law Firm, etc.
 
2013-03-07 05:42:17 PM  

tenpoundsofcheese: Meh
Is this the same Hillary that was going to crush a relatively unknown senator from Illinois?


No, this is cyborg Hillary constructed with  mimetic polyalloy.
 
2013-03-07 05:42:49 PM  

Kuta: Has to be said, again, and ad nauseam until the election...

HILLARY CANNOT WIN IN 2016. SHE WILL BE TOO OLD. SHE HAS TOO MUCH BAGGAGE.

She was a great Secretary of State. She'll make a great Senator from Illnois, or a decent Supreme Court Justice. But she is not the right Democrat for 2016. Start looking for real alternatives.


This. Joe Biden is too old too.
 
2013-03-07 05:49:14 PM  

tenpoundsofcheese: Meh
Is this the same Hillary that was going to crush a relatively unknown senator from Illinois?



this just in: democrats voting against democrats in the primaries is exactly the same as them voting against republicans in the general election.
 
2013-03-07 05:53:59 PM  

dionysusaur: sorry, but Hil is the one candidate that, assuming the R party manages to nominate somone who appears sane, guarantees a D loss.

/ that's a biiiig if, though.


Well, you know what happens when you assume.


You use a verb that means "suppose to be the case, without proof: "afraid of what people are going to assume".
 
2013-03-07 05:58:04 PM  

tenpoundsofcheese: Meh
Is this the same Hillary that was going to crush a relatively unknown senator from Illinois?


Yep.  And if that relatively unknown Senator from Illinois hadn't been a phenom who would eventually go on to win two back to back General Elections with 330+ electoral votes, she probably would have easily walked away with the Presidency too.

Luckily for her there's no Obamas coming up through the Democratic Party for 2016, and the the GOP are .... well, the GOP.   At the rate the GOP are going to alienate people, and judging by their party approval rating, the Maryland Gubernatorial General Election might have more suspense than the 2016 Presidential Election.
 
2013-03-07 06:18:22 PM  

Koalaesq: If Christie did run, any bets on whether he would carry New Jersey? He did ok during Sandy, but pissed off a LOT of teachers and cops. Plus we're pretty blue to begin with. It would be embarrassing if he didn't carry his own home state.



www.examiner.com
 
2013-03-07 08:13:38 PM  

oldfarthenry: I surprise the ol' gay can spread her legs wide-enough to straddle that girth.


Iron Shiek? Is that you?
 
2013-03-07 09:09:38 PM  
In the current field, and being realistic that people like Warren might be too liberal to survive media attack, I would love to see Hilldawg run again. If anything it's because she was Sec.of State, and I can't think of a better 4 year education in political reality than that.

There's not going to be a superstar, refreshing candidate like Fartbama in '16 (as things stand now). She could easily be nominated for this one. The ball is in her court.
 
2013-03-07 09:26:59 PM  

Wendy's Chili: [www.oocities.org image 310x233]


Perhaps a better match:
farm8.staticflickr.com
 
2013-03-07 10:16:43 PM  

Tommy Moo: Mark my words: Christie is the only Republican I'm afraid of. Clinton is very popular because she has been quietly doing a good job, but forcing her to debate Christie will even things out. He's tenacious, and has a way of making liberal policies sound very silly in front of a camera, even to common people that would actually be helped by a net shift to the left in this country.


People say he isn't crazy enough to win the primary.  You what he'll do?  Someone will say something crazy on-stage during a debate, and HE'LL CALL THEM CRAZY.  He'll call them on their bullshiat, go all alpha male on their ass, and the 'Pubs loves 'em an alpha male.  He's still plenty conservative, and we'll see that if he gets elected, but he won't feel the need to cater to the crazies. He IS a good candidate: plenty conservative enough to help the House do a lot of damage if elected, but he seems reasonable because he's not batshiat crazy.

Which reminds me, I gotta get that picture out of my profile.
 
2013-03-07 10:38:17 PM  

This Face Left Blank: People say he isn't crazy enough to win the primary. You what he'll do? Someone will say something crazy on-stage during a debate, and HE'LL CALL THEM CRAZY. He'll call them on their bullshiat, go all alpha male on their ass, and the 'Pubs loves 'em an alpha male.


They love to hear people "stick it to da libs".  They don't like to be called out on their crazy.    Rick Perry's long swirl down the toilet bowl in the 2012 began when he told the GOPers to "have a heart" because he wasn't willing to weanie roast 'Messicans on electric fences.

There's a reason why he couldn't even get a passing invite to CPAC.  Christie was seen praising Obama.  In public.    He's done for on the National stage as a Republican.   Any GOP opponent can just play that on infinite loop on smear ads, and Chrisie will be lucky to get 5% of the vote.
 
2013-03-07 11:11:57 PM  

Supes: Honestly I think Rubio eeks out the 2016 GOP nomination


I don't think he's going to make it.  I don't think he's ready for primetime, he's going to get outflanked on the right on immigration and ... honestly .... I just don't think he's that talented of a politician.

As hilarious as it have seemed to me just a few months ago,  I  think Rand Paul is going to be the favorite.  I know judging by my facebook from the derpers I went to high school with  in Texas he's the the "true conservative" darling at the moment.   He's a bit like Dubya ....  He can get the TeaParty and the Club for Growth money behind him, given that he can both social DERP and preach massive deregulation simultaneously.      Of course, he also doesn't believe in Civil Rights Laws and he's just going to exacerbate the growing demo/messaging problem the GOP have, but I really believe the GOP are going to have to hit a rock bottom in 2016 just like the Democrats hit in 1988 with Dukakis.  Right now they think they're in their position just because there is too much  Cult of Personality around Obama, not because their policies are just really that repugnant to most American people.   They're going to need a wakeup call to snap out of it, and that will probably have to be a "true conservative" getting steamrolled by 150+ EVs.
 
2013-03-07 11:46:36 PM  

Kuta: Has to be said, again, and ad nauseam until the election...

HILLARY CANNOT WIN IN 2016. SHE WILL BE TOO OLD. SHE HAS TOO MUCH BAGGAGE.

She was a great Secretary of State. She'll make a great Senator from Illnois, or a decent Supreme Court Justice. But she is not the right Democrat for 2016. Start looking for real alternatives.


hillary couldn't beat an unknown black guy for the nomination, do you really expect her to be president?
 
2013-03-08 12:01:48 AM  

Curious: hillary couldn't beat an unknown black guy for the nomination, do you really expect her to be president?


The unknown black guy was always seen as the next great hope"of the Democatic Party, ever since he brought down the house at the 2004 DNC.  It just happened a little sooner than everyone thought it would.   He then proved to be Secretariat of campaigners, winning two consecutive general elections by 330+ EVs when people were writing off the Democratic Party for dead just 2-3 years earlier.

So, yeah, I don't really judge Hillary's performance against a once in a generation phenom politician and try to project it against the weaksauce field that's shaping up for 2016.
 
2013-03-08 12:02:43 AM  

Tommy Moo: Mark my words: Christie is the only Republican I'm afraid of. Clinton is very popular because she has been quietly doing a good job, but forcing her to debate Christie will even things out. He's tenacious, and has a way of making liberal policies sound very silly in front of a camera, even to common people that would actually be helped by a net shift to the left in this country.


This shouldn't be a problem then, as Hillary is not liberal.
 
2013-03-08 12:49:25 AM  

InmanRoshi: Laughing at anyone who thinks Hillary will be "too old".   She's a babyboomer, and babyboomers will be the biggest age demo that votes in 2016 by a  considerable margin.


They'll vote for her IF she runs. IF.

As Sparta said to Philip of Macedon.
 
2013-03-08 01:24:42 AM  

RexTalionis: There's an image that you need to scour out of your brain with Brillo.


I think it will take something stronger than that.  Yeesh!
 
2013-03-08 01:25:28 AM  

Gyrfalcon: InmanRoshi: Laughing at anyone who thinks Hillary will be "too old".   She's a babyboomer, and babyboomers will be the biggest age demo that votes in 2016 by a  considerable margin.

They'll vote for her IF she runs. IF.

As Sparta said to Philip of Macedon.


I thought the Spartans said the more laconic "fark you"
 
2013-03-08 03:49:16 AM  
If you want to piss off a Hillary fan, ask them to name an accomplishment of hers. Shuts them right up.
 
2013-03-08 06:14:49 AM  

Bucky Katt: Gyrfalcon: InmanRoshi: Laughing at anyone who thinks Hillary will be "too old".   She's a babyboomer, and babyboomers will be the biggest age demo that votes in 2016 by a  considerable margin.

They'll vote for her IF she runs. IF.

As Sparta said to Philip of Macedon.

I thought the Spartans said the more laconic "fark you"


It may have translated to the same thing in Ancient Greek.
 
2013-03-08 09:38:54 AM  

obviousfakename: If you want to piss off a Hillary fan, ask them to name an accomplishment of hers. Shuts them right up.


If you want to piss off a  Santorum fan, ask them to name an accomplishment of his. Shuts them right up.

If you want to piss off a  Ryan fan, ask them to name an accomplishment of his. Shuts them right up.

If you want to piss off a  Rubio fan, ask them to name an accomplishment of his. Shuts them right up.

This game is fun, shall we play some more?
 
2013-03-08 10:17:15 AM  

Stone Meadow: If you want to piss off a Santorum fan, ask them to name an accomplishment of his. Shuts them right up.


An incumbent Senator losing re-election by 19% of the vote is a pretty amazing accomplishment.
 
2013-03-08 10:31:12 AM  
You guys will be shocked when it's a Clinton/Christie ticket in 2016. Shocked, I say!

/You heard it here first.
//Shocked!
 
2013-03-08 10:36:43 AM  
 
2013-03-08 10:38:26 AM  

InmanRoshi: Stone Meadow: If you want to piss off a Santorum fan, ask them to name an accomplishment of his. Shuts them right up.

An incumbent Senator losing re-election by 19% of the vote is a pretty amazing accomplishment.


Well, yes...there IS that. ;^)

Snarfangel: You guys will be shocked when it's a Clinton/Christie ticket in 2016. Shocked, I say!

/You heard it here first.
//Shocked!


Nah...Clinton/Villaraigosa.
 
2013-03-08 04:31:33 PM  

TheOther: Emposter: Interesting, when did Nate start posting opinion pieces without data?

He's a well written, really smart guy, and very well informed, but if he doesn't stick to the math and starts getting into the nonsense-half of political so-called-analysis, he's gonna end up like all the other "experts"--saying something stupid and getting discredited.

He's got the math-based-politics territory well dominated...he doesn't need to expand into the bullshiat-based-politics territory that everyone else wins and make himself look bad. I like him better as the aloof super-math-prophet.

Silver's one data-point was that Christie wasn't invited to the CPAC orgy, where he's previously been welcome.  It's more of a 0/I thing than a % thing.  YMMV


To be fair, he sucked at the Republican Convention. Made a warmup speech for Romney that barely mentioned Romney but droned on and on about some supposedly awesome dude from NJ.
 
2013-03-08 04:54:49 PM  

Gdiguy: Grungehamster: I have to figure Republicans have something rich on Hillary. Did you see how quick they were to push backing her over Obama in 2008? Did you see how hard they were pushing the idea that Obama should totally take Biden off the ticket and add Hillary as a running mate in 2012?

Even if they didn't, prepare to hear "what difference at this point does it make" to be repeated out of context for 8 months straight as shorthand for "Hillary doesn't care about dead Americans."

Honestly, at this point I don't know whether that's actually true, or whether they've just all deluded themselves into believing that the average American hates Hillary as much as the right wing does and would absolutely never vote for her in a general election.


I'm pretty sure this is the explanation. They managed to convince themselves they could easily beat Obama.
 
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