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(NPR)   Four things to know about the next budget battle, or why I stopped caring about manufactured crises   (npr.org) divider line 76
    More: Asinine, Big Budget, Clinton presidency, Boehner  
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2870 clicks; posted to Politics » on 05 Mar 2013 at 2:20 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-03-05 12:39:54 PM
Continuing Resolutions should be outlawed.  If congress can't decide on a budget then spending goes to 0 until they figure it out.
 
2013-03-05 12:43:51 PM

Snotnose: Continuing Resolutions should be outlawed.  If congress can't decide on a budget then spending goes to 0 until they figure it out.

 A continuing resolution is deciding on a budget - just for a 3 month period of time.
 
2013-03-05 12:50:34 PM

DamnYankees: A continuing resolution is deciding on a budget - just for a 3 month period of time.


Which is why they've been governing by CR for 4 years now.
 
2013-03-05 12:52:33 PM

Snotnose: DamnYankees: A continuing resolution is deciding on a budget - just for a 3 month period of time.

Which is why they've been governing by CR for 4 years now.


Yes, they have been. That's their decision.

"Deciding on a budget you don't like in a manner you find annoying" is not the same thing as "not deciding". Not deciding is a government shutdown, which is what will probably happen in a few weeks.
 
2013-03-05 01:03:08 PM
Stopped worrying about manufactured crises? Why that's our only growth industry these days. Just think about our children, who are going to be forced to fight on behalf of China when N Korea attacks Japan if we don't do something about Dennis Rodman now!
 
2013-03-05 01:35:24 PM
The House has just taken the first stab at a CR. The chairman of the House Appropriations Committee has introduced a bill that keeps the sequester in place but reallocates funding within the departments of Defense and Veterans Affairs, to help cushion the impact of the cuts. It's a way for Chairman Hal Rogers, R-Ky., to determine budget priorities rather than letting the White House do it.

So with the DR they get the cuts they wanted to the safety net without impacting the military?

That's been the GOP's wet dream since Cantor made them pull the trigger on the sequester.

This will be worth keeping an eye on.

Imagine what they would have done with Romney in the big chair.

*shudders*
 
2013-03-05 01:36:11 PM
I'd be far less concerned if Obama hadn't had a penchant for giving them over 60% of what they want on anything.
 
2013-03-05 01:36:12 PM
DR = CR

/Me = Need Coffee.
 
2013-03-05 01:43:45 PM
I'm not an economist but doesn't the US credit rating impact how much interest the US pays on loans.  So doesn't this type of bullshiat cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars in interest payments?

Whenever DC is gridlocked on a budgetary issues less than a certain amount, wouldn't they just be better off flipping a coin?  What does every year maintaining this shiatting credit rating cost the US interest?

/not an economist in case not obvious enough
 
2013-03-05 01:44:53 PM

mrshowrules: I'm not an economist but doesn't the US credit rating impact how much interest the US pays on loans.  So doesn't this type of bullshiat cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars in interest payments?


No and no. Credit rating is essentially meaningless for the US Government. The last time our credit rating was downgraded, interest rates dropped.
 
2013-03-05 01:51:05 PM

DamnYankees: mrshowrules: I'm not an economist but doesn't the US credit rating impact how much interest the US pays on loans.  So doesn't this type of bullshiat cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars in interest payments?

No and no. Credit rating is essentially meaningless for the US Government. The last time our credit rating was downgraded, interest rates dropped.


Could they have not dropped even more?  I mean even a tenth of a percent is $12B a year.
 
2013-03-05 01:53:25 PM

mrshowrules: Could they have not dropped even more?  I mean even a tenth of a percent is $12B a year.


Kind of hard for them to drop below zero, as a practical matter. If nominal interest rates on a bond drop below zero, you're better off putting your money in a mattress.

The larger point is that there's no direct relationship between ratings and interest rates. The former is theoretically just an advisor to the market. The market still chooses for itself what price to set.
 
2013-03-05 02:27:58 PM
I'm shorting all of my manufactured crises and investing heavily on feigned outrage.
 
2013-03-05 02:28:24 PM

DamnYankees: mrshowrules: Could they have not dropped even more?  I mean even a tenth of a percent is $12B a year.

Kind of hard for them to drop below zero, as a practical matter. If nominal interest rates on a bond drop below zero, you're better off putting your money in a mattress.

The larger point is that there's no direct relationship between ratings and interest rates. The former is theoretically just an advisor to the market. The market still chooses for itself what price to set.


That and the Fed still sets the prime rate, which is just about at mattress level right now.
 
2013-03-05 02:28:40 PM

quatchi: It's a way for Chairman Hal Rogers, R-Ky., to determine budget priorities rather than letting the White House do it.


You don't need a way! That's the way it farking works normally!
 
2013-03-05 02:29:53 PM

quatchi: DR = CR

/Me = Need Coffee.


I disagree. Damage Reduction affects Challenge Rating, but equivalence? Nah.
 
2013-03-05 02:31:08 PM
So .... austerity and war with Iran.
 
2013-03-05 02:31:32 PM
#1 The GOP will continue to put their own self interests above the country.
#2 The White House will continue to over dramatize the results of budget cuts
#3  Reasonable solutions will die in the House because of Tea Tards
#4  A temporary agreement will be made and the decision will be postponed until after mid-term elections

/Didn't read, probably right.
 
2013-03-05 02:33:37 PM
MICKEY
Y'know? What this place needs is a good natural catastrophe--earthquake, tornado ... y'know.

ALBRECHT
No, no, no, Mickey, c'mon man. You gotta put the mustard underneath first.

MICKEY
... Maybe a flood like in the bible.
 
2013-03-05 02:34:14 PM

DamnYankees: mrshowrules: Could they have not dropped even more?  I mean even a tenth of a percent is $12B a year.

Kind of hard for them to drop below zero, as a practical matter. If nominal interest rates on a bond drop below zero, you're better off putting your money in a mattress.

The larger point is that there's no direct relationship between ratings and interest rates. The former is theoretically just an advisor to the market. The market still chooses for itself what price to set.


I thought they sold some negative rate bonds this past year?  http://www.voanews.com/content/us-sells-bonds-with-negative-interest- r ate-105801458/168907.html
 
2013-03-05 02:35:35 PM

meat0918: DamnYankees: mrshowrules: Could they have not dropped even more?  I mean even a tenth of a percent is $12B a year.

Kind of hard for them to drop below zero, as a practical matter. If nominal interest rates on a bond drop below zero, you're better off putting your money in a mattress.

The larger point is that there's no direct relationship between ratings and interest rates. The former is theoretically just an advisor to the market. The market still chooses for itself what price to set.

I thought they sold some negative rate bonds this past year?  http://www.voanews.com/content/us-sells-bonds-with-negative-interest- r ate-105801458/168907.html


Make that "last year" into an "October 2010".
 
2013-03-05 02:37:26 PM

meat0918: I thought they sold some negative rate bonds this past year?  http://www.voanews.com/content/us-sells-bonds-with-negative-interest- r ate-105801458/168907.html


Negative real interest. Not nominal. The bonds in that link are TIPS; inflation-protected securities. Essentially the people buying them are betting on the fact that the rate of inflation will be higher than the discount they are buying the bond for.
 
2013-03-05 02:38:06 PM

mrshowrules: I'm not an economist but doesn't the US credit rating impact how much interest the US pays on loans.  So doesn't this type of bullshiat cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars in interest payments?

Whenever DC is gridlocked on a budgetary issues less than a certain amount, wouldn't they just be better off flipping a coin?  What does every year maintaining this shiatting credit rating cost the US interest?

/not an economist in case not obvious enough


Sort of, the rating determines how credit worth we are to pay our debts, most of which we owe ourselves if we're being honest here. For years upon years and years the US Bond market has been seen as the worlds 'mattress'. Investing in our money is and has been the equivalent of other nations being able to bury their wealth in the back yard. It may not earn much, but rest assured if the world goes to shiat we'll still have your cash.

Lower the credit rating and we start to look less and less like a sure thing, eventually not only would people stop investing in our money they might actually do the big step and stop trading in our money. Now that would be catastrophic for us.
 
2013-03-05 02:40:12 PM
They keep this up and Republicans will appoint an Emergency Financial Manager...
 
2013-03-05 02:48:01 PM

DamnYankees: meat0918: I thought they sold some negative rate bonds this past year?  http://www.voanews.com/content/us-sells-bonds-with-negative-interest- r ate-105801458/168907.html

Negative real interest. Not nominal. The bonds in that link are TIPS; inflation-protected securities. Essentially the people buying them are betting on the fact that the rate of inflation will be higher than the discount they are buying the bond for.


More gambling then?
 
2013-03-05 02:48:49 PM

MyKingdomForYourHorse: mrshowrules: I'm not an economist but doesn't the US credit rating impact how much interest the US pays on loans.  So doesn't this type of bullshiat cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars in interest payments?

Whenever DC is gridlocked on a budgetary issues less than a certain amount, wouldn't they just be better off flipping a coin?  What does every year maintaining this shiatting credit rating cost the US interest?

/not an economist in case not obvious enough

Sort of, the rating determines how credit worth we are to pay our debts, most of which we owe ourselves if we're being honest here. For years upon years and years the US Bond market has been seen as the worlds 'mattress'. Investing in our money is and has been the equivalent of other nations being able to bury their wealth in the back yard. It may not earn much, but rest assured if the world goes to shiat we'll still have your cash.

Lower the credit rating and we start to look less and less like a sure thing, eventually not only would people stop investing in our money they might actually do the big step and stop trading in our money. Now that would be catastrophic for us.


Well, but that would require the other countries to *trust* the credit rating from the credit rating agencies. Whiiiich, given the bang-up job they did in identifying the risk inherent in the whole mortgages fiasco, and the incredible job they did correctly identify toxic assets and rating them as bad investments accordingly...

Well, they may not be highly trusted right now.
 
2013-03-05 02:51:35 PM

Felgraf: Well, but that would require the other countries to *trust* the credit rating from the credit rating agencies. Whiiiich, given the bang-up job they did in identifying the risk inherent in the whole mortgages fiasco, and the incredible job they did correctly identify toxic assets and rating them as bad investments accordingly...

Well, they may not be highly trusted right now.


Which is why everyone just sorta shrugged when we got down graded last time. The financial markets did a collective shrug and 'meh'
 
2013-03-05 02:54:29 PM

DamnYankees: mrshowrules: I'm not an economist but doesn't the US credit rating impact how much interest the US pays on loans.  So doesn't this type of bullshiat cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars in interest payments?

No and no. Credit rating is essentially meaningless for the US Government. The last time our credit rating was downgraded, interest rates dropped.


Technically we only dropped in 1 of several ratings. If we drop in 2 or 3 of the rating agencies, by contract many funds would be forced to pull out of their Bond holdings. This would be a HUGE rock to the market for several reasons, and may raise rates as the Fed searches for alternative buyers.
That said, one could almost see the SEC altering its rules to allow these funds to continue buying Fed bonds during the emergency.
 
2013-03-05 02:56:54 PM

DamnYankees: mrshowrules: Could they have not dropped even more?  I mean even a tenth of a percent is $12B a year.

Kind of hard for them to drop below zero, as a practical matter. If nominal interest rates on a bond drop below zero, you're better off putting your money in a mattress.

The larger point is that there's no direct relationship between ratings and interest rates. The former is theoretically just an advisor to the market. The market still chooses for itself what price to set.


I read the effective interest rate on the debt was around 3.6%. Are you saying all new loans are at 0%?
 
2013-03-05 02:58:16 PM

mrshowrules: I read the effective interest rate on the debt was around 3.6%. Are you saying all new loans are at 0%?


Depends on the term of the loan. I think the rate on 10-year bonds are negative in real terms. 3.6% might be the number for short term bonds.
 
2013-03-05 02:58:17 PM

MyKingdomForYourHorse: mrshowrules: I'm not an economist but doesn't the US credit rating impact how much interest the US pays on loans.  So doesn't this type of bullshiat cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars in interest payments?

Whenever DC is gridlocked on a budgetary issues less than a certain amount, wouldn't they just be better off flipping a coin?  What does every year maintaining this shiatting credit rating cost the US interest?

/not an economist in case not obvious enough

Sort of, the rating determines how credit worth we are to pay our debts, most of which we owe ourselves if we're being honest here. For years upon years and years the US Bond market has been seen as the worlds 'mattress'. Investing in our money is and has been the equivalent of other nations being able to bury their wealth in the back yard. It may not earn much, but rest assured if the world goes to shiat we'll still have your cash.

Lower the credit rating and we start to look less and less like a sure thing, eventually not only would people stop investing in our money they might actually do the big step and stop trading in our money. Now that would be catastrophic for us.


Is there any way to put a price tag on on the reduced credit rating every year?
 
2013-03-05 03:00:23 PM

DamnYankees: mrshowrules: I read the effective interest rate on the debt was around 3.6%. Are you saying all new loans are at 0%?

Depends on the term of the loan. I think the rate on 10-year bonds are negative in real terms. 3.6% might be the number for short term bonds.


I think the term was an average against all the debt but I could be wrong.  I assume new loans replace old loans on a regular basis and a reduced credit rating must at lease have some effect.
 
2013-03-05 03:05:51 PM

mrshowrules: Is there any way to put a price tag on on the reduced credit rating every year?


Supposedly...well....not really.

In fact, very often in the financial world you might as well farking just flip a coin and the outcomes will come out pretty similar.
 
2013-03-05 03:17:51 PM
Lock the buildings and close off the restrooms. No congresscritters leave the chamber under they have a budget.

/or die from exposure to their own waste
 
2013-03-05 03:17:54 PM
It's all theater.  They just shut down White House tours... because that is such an enormous cost.  I'm sure it has nothing to do with making a good headline.

It's amazing... it's actually in O's political interest to fark this whole thing up as much as possible and since he's just a political hack with no sense of leadership or statesmanship...(like everyone else in DC)  you can be damned sure he's going to fark it up real good.
 
2013-03-05 03:18:50 PM

goatleggedfellow: Lock the buildings and close off the restrooms. No congresscritters leave the chamber under they have a budget.

/or die from exposure to their own waste


under=until
 
2013-03-05 03:29:45 PM

skylabdown: It's amazing... it's actually in O's political interest to fark this whole thing up as much as possible and since he's just a political hack with no sense of leadership or statesmanship...(like everyone else in DC) you can be damned sure he's going to fark it up real good.


Why?  He can't be elected again, and while this is going on, he can't pass any new legislation his constituents have been asking for.  What would he gain from this?  Making Reps look bad?  They don't need any help.
 
2013-03-05 03:29:55 PM

goatleggedfellow: Lock the buildings and close off the restrooms. No congresscritters leave the chamber under they have a budget.

/or die from exposure to their own waste


Whoever loses, we all win?

Would be an interesting change from the normal result of US politics.
 
2013-03-05 03:30:17 PM

skylabdown: It's all theater.  They just shut down White House tours... because that is such an enormous cost.  I'm sure it has nothing to do with making a good headline.

It's amazing... it's actually in O's political interest to fark this whole thing up as much as possible and since he's just a political hack with no sense of leadership or statesmanship...(like everyone else in DC)  you can be damned sure he's going to fark it up real good.


"American's demand a massive reduction in spending that does not affect them in any way, no matter how small".

It's like the entire country wants to eat cake 3 meals a day and never gain weight.
 
2013-03-05 03:30:54 PM

skylabdown: It's all theater.  They just shut down White House tours... because that is such an enormous cost.  I'm sure it has nothing to do with making a good headline.

It's amazing... it's actually in O's political interest to fark this whole thing up as much as possible and since he's just a political hack with no sense of leadership or statesmanship...(like everyone else in DC)  you can be damned sure he's going to fark it up real good.


projection.jpg

*yawn*
 
2013-03-05 03:31:58 PM
Same thing happened to me when I learned to love the bomb.
 
2013-03-05 03:35:15 PM

BSABSVR: skylabdown: It's all theater.  They just shut down White House tours... because that is such an enormous cost.  I'm sure it has nothing to do with making a good headline.

It's amazing... it's actually in O's political interest to fark this whole thing up as much as possible and since he's just a political hack with no sense of leadership or statesmanship...(like everyone else in DC)  you can be damned sure he's going to fark it up real good.

"American's demand a massive reduction in spending that does not affect them in any way, no matter how small".

It's like the entire country wants to eat cake 3 meals a day and never gain weight.


I don't think it's any coincidence there are weight-loss treatments out there that purport to allow people to do precisely that. Americans  looove quick, painless fixes.
 
2013-03-05 03:37:38 PM

Saiga410: Same thing happened to me when I learned to love the bomb.


upload.wikimedia.org

Slim, I thought you were dead?
 
2013-03-05 03:37:55 PM

skylabdown: It's all theater.  They just shut down White House tours... because that is such an enormous cost.  I'm sure it has nothing to do with making a good headline.

It's amazing... it's actually in O's political interest to fark this whole thing up as much as possible and since he's just a political hack with no sense of leadership or statesmanship...(like everyone else in DC)  you can be damned sure he's going to fark it up real good.


No Obama is not going to actively try to mess up the country... now talk a big talk about the heavens falling to earth, rivers of fire, cats and dogs... yes, which may harm the country in the short term.  All that in the hopes to score political points so that he can weaken an opposition which might make him getting legislation through easier after 2014.
 
2013-03-05 03:41:26 PM

MyKingdomForYourHorse: mrshowrules: Is there any way to put a price tag on on the reduced credit rating every year?

Supposedly...well....not really.

In fact, very often in the financial world you might as well farking just flip a coin and the outcomes will come out pretty similar.


The thing with a reduced credit rating, similarly to when a company reports a big loss, is that the market is usually already well aware of the information that leads to the reduction, especially when it is something like Fed Bonds - so everything is already priced into the market when the ratings changes, so it is really "no news today" in most cases.
 
2013-03-05 03:41:59 PM

goatleggedfellow: Lock the buildings and close off the restrooms. No congresscritters leave the chamber under they have a budget.

/or die from exposure to their own waste


Finally, there would be a situation that Ted Nugent really would have some expertise on.
 
2013-03-05 03:53:17 PM
skylabdown:It's amazing... it's actually in O's the Republican's political interest to fark this whole thing up as much as possible and since he's they're just a political hacks with no sense of leadership or statesmanship...(like everyone else in DC)  you can be damned sure he's they're going to fark it up real good.

Teehee.
 
2013-03-05 03:58:10 PM
I don't see anyone putting out lies and falsehoods about how "bad" things are with the big S other than the WH.

Funny how I put "Like everyone else in DC" and the usual sycophants still try to make it a D vs R thing again.  It's all they know I guess...  The hilarious thing is they actually believe any of these folks.  That's pathetic.
 
2013-03-05 04:02:45 PM

xria: The thing with a reduced credit rating, similarly to when a company reports a big loss, is that the market is usually already well aware of the information that leads to the reduction, especially when it is something like Fed Bonds - so everything is already priced into the market when the ratings changes, so it is really "no news today" in most cases.


More or less, its usually the media that screams the sky is falling while most in finance shrug and go 'meh'
 
2013-03-05 04:21:39 PM
Do budgets change that much every year? My income doesn't fluctuate so my budget doesn't change every year.
 
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