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(ESPN)   The first sign of March Madness: Should New Mexico be a #1 seed?   (espn.go.com) divider line 44
    More: Interesting, Should New Mexico, New Mexico, Lobos, RPI, strength of schedule, South Dakota State, Gonzaga, San Diego State  
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1141 clicks; posted to Sports » on 02 Mar 2013 at 12:02 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-03-01 08:46:10 PM  
Hmm.  Should a team ranked in the mid-teens in every poll except the RPI be a top seed? Let me think.

No.

Why? Because if you're the NCAA bracket makers, and you give a tough slighted team a break like that, there's no way in hell they'd go far.  But, you give them a 4 or even a 5 as a slight, and suddenly you have a team that's going to make the Elite Eight, all because they suddenly will have motivation.

Contrived? Maybe.  But don't blame me if this exact scenario happens and you don't pick them to do it.
 
2013-03-01 08:55:42 PM  
Even though I went to NMSU for a VERY short time, I spent a good amount of time in Albuquerque. I'd probably watch college basketball this year just to see if UNM did anything.

/they never do
 
2013-03-01 09:49:36 PM  
*threadjack*
Bucky is gonna shock y'all with a final 4 appearance
s7d2.scene7.com
On Wisconsin!
*/threadjack*
 
2013-03-01 10:11:39 PM  
We don't need no stinking foreign college teams in our American basketball classic !! Stay home beaners.

i3.kym-cdn.com
 
2013-03-01 11:13:02 PM  
No.

Louisville will be a 1 seed.

Boom.
 
2013-03-02 12:09:45 AM  
New Mexico, Old Mexico, I don't care! March Madness is about teams from this country.
 
2013-03-02 12:14:39 AM  
Why, did every player from soon-to-be #1 Gonzaga break a leg?
 
2013-03-02 12:26:38 AM  
New Mexico's a good team. A very good team, even. But they've lost to South Dakota State. They were held to 34 points by San Diego State. Their best wins are over a rapidly imploding Cincinnati and two over Colorado State. They've got a decent profile, but that's not a 1 seed.
 
2013-03-02 12:28:14 AM  
Should the top team from the top conference be a number 1 seed?  Uh, yeah.
 
2013-03-02 12:49:00 AM  

dark brew: Should the top team from the top conference be a number 1 seed?  Uh, yeah.


I'm looking at the Mountain West and each team's schedule and saying to myself.  How does the RPI come up with the Mtn. West being the best conference in the country.  Seriously, people think the BCS computers are off?
 
2013-03-02 12:55:06 AM  

JosephFinn: Why, did every player from soon-to-be #1 Gonzaga break a leg?


Even Gonzaga getting a #1 seed isn't a lock.  The NCAA tournament selection committee usually puts them a little lower than their final poll ranking due to the weak conference they play in.

Pretty sure this year they'll get a #1 though, provided they beat Portland tomorrow and breeze through the conference tournament.
 
2013-03-02 01:10:27 AM  
Probably?  At least, maybe?

But watch.  They'll get a 3.
 
2013-03-02 01:16:10 AM  
There are no truly dominant teams, so a very good UNM could go deep quite easily.  I'd be surprised to see them with a too seed, although no one else seems ready to grab one.  I'd say Gonzaga, although I'm not happy at all with their weak ass schedule.  The only other one who probably has a near lock is Indiana.  The ACC might get one but Duke and Miami seem determined to throw it away.  Same with Florida, and now the Big East is a mess.  Can't say Kansas yet, either.
 
2013-03-02 01:23:24 AM  
Better New Mexico than Gonzaga.

While New Mexico hasn't played many top of the line teams, they've played enough good teams to have a high strength of schedule.  Gonzaga's played wimps.  Granted, they've looked great beating up on those wimps.  But, wimps.
 
2013-03-02 01:25:16 AM  

srhp29: dark brew: Should the top team from the top conference be a number 1 seed?  Uh, yeah.

I'm looking at the Mountain West and each team's schedule and saying to myself.  How does the RPI come up with the Mtn. West being the best conference in the country.  Seriously, people think the BCS computers are off?


As I understand it, some conferences manipulate RPI rating by requiring their teams to schedule a certain number of likely RPI top 50 squads each season. This inflates RPI rankings for teams even if they lose. I'm not sure if the Mountain West does this, but it would make sense if you're a mid-major conference of any sort that needs to game the system a little bit to get more bids come March. It also means though that assuming things like "top team in the top RPI conference" is a little dubious when it comes to determining a 1 seed.
 
2013-03-02 01:30:17 AM  

srhp29: dark brew: Should the top team from the top conference be a number 1 seed?  Uh, yeah.

I'm looking at the Mountain West and each team's schedule and saying to myself.  How does the RPI come up with the Mtn. West being the best conference in the country.  Seriously, people think the BCS computers are off?


Despite my previous comment, I do actually agree with you to some extent.  The MWC is a solid conference and very well may get more than half their teams in the NCAA tourney.  That being said, none of their teams are "elite" and realistically worthy of a #1 seed.  I do believe that UNM deserves a #2 seed but unless they win the MWC tournament, they are probably a 3.
 
2013-03-02 01:33:37 AM  

Dafatone: Better New Mexico than Gonzaga.

While New Mexico hasn't played many top of the line teams, they've played enough good teams to have a high strength of schedule.  Gonzaga's played wimps.  Granted, they've looked great beating up on those wimps.  But, wimps.


Gonzaga has wins over Davidson (which New Mexico also played), Oklahoma, K-State, and Oklahoma State, all very good teams with some quality wins of their own. Their two losses are to Illinois (they who so recently knocked off Indiana) and a buzzer-beater on the road to Butler. In conference, they've got two wins over a good Saint Mary's team.

Gonzaga plays in the weaker conference this year, no doubt, but their non-conference schedule looks about as good as New Mexico's. New Mexico also arguably has a bad loss at home to South Dakota State and got utterly clowned by San Diego State earlier in the season. Gonzaga, on the other hand, has no bad losses.

I could see the Lobos as a 2 or 3 seed. They're pretty good. But I think Gonzaga has a pretty decent case to be seeded higher.
 
2013-03-02 01:34:07 AM  

Cagey B: srhp29: dark brew: Should the top team from the top conference be a number 1 seed?  Uh, yeah.

I'm looking at the Mountain West and each team's schedule and saying to myself.  How does the RPI come up with the Mtn. West being the best conference in the country.  Seriously, people think the BCS computers are off?

As I understand it, some conferences manipulate RPI rating by requiring their teams to schedule a certain number of likely RPI top 50 squads each season. This inflates RPI rankings for teams even if they lose. I'm not sure if the Mountain West does this, but it would make sense if you're a mid-major conference of any sort that needs to game the system a little bit to get more bids come March. It also means though that assuming things like "top team in the top RPI conference" is a little dubious when it comes to determining a 1 seed.


Or, the Mountain West has beaten the crap out of everyone it's played out of conference.

The conference is a combined 89-24 out of conference.  Either they're beating up on weak teams, or they're beating up on strong teams.  Either way, their ranking has nothing to do with losing to likely top 50 teams.
 
2013-03-02 01:35:12 AM  
Please underseed them, so I can bet on them.
 
2013-03-02 01:48:21 AM  

Cagey B: Dafatone: Better New Mexico than Gonzaga.

While New Mexico hasn't played many top of the line teams, they've played enough good teams to have a high strength of schedule.  Gonzaga's played wimps.  Granted, they've looked great beating up on those wimps.  But, wimps.

Gonzaga has wins over Davidson (which New Mexico also played), Oklahoma, K-State, and Oklahoma State, all very good teams with some quality wins of their own. Their two losses are to Illinois (they who so recently knocked off Indiana) and a buzzer-beater on the road to Butler. In conference, they've got two wins over a good Saint Mary's team.

Gonzaga plays in the weaker conference this year, no doubt, but their non-conference schedule looks about as good as New Mexico's. New Mexico also arguably has a bad loss at home to South Dakota State and got utterly clowned by San Diego State earlier in the season. Gonzaga, on the other hand, has no bad losses.

I could see the Lobos as a 2 or 3 seed. They're pretty good. But I think Gonzaga has a pretty decent case to be seeded higher.


Granted, the South Dakota State loss is pretty bad, but San Diego State's a good team, though they've started faltering as of late.

I did underestimate Gonzaga's top wins, but it depends on what you want to measure teams by.  If you want to measure them by their 5 or so most decisive games (best wins and worst losses,) Gonzaga wins.  If you go by overall performance, I'll stick with New Mexico.

The Mountain West's out of conference record is fantastic, and while they might just be playing scrubs, they're beating the scrubs.  7 of 9 teams in the Mountain West have overall records over .500, versus 4 of 9 in the WCC.  Gonzaga may have the better team, but from my point of view, New Mexico has the better resume.  A couple more losses is more forgivable when fewer of your games are cakewalks, even if the toughest games New Mexico has played have been easier than Gonzaga's.
 
2013-03-02 02:01:01 AM  

Dafatone: Gonzaga may have the better team, but from my point of view, New Mexico has the better resume. A couple more losses is more forgivable when fewer of your games are cakewalks, even if the toughest games New Mexico has played have been easier than Gonzaga's.


One could indeed look at it that way. In the end, this is the one of the reasons I like the tournament so much. These things end up getting settled pretty definitively.
 
2013-03-02 02:13:18 AM  
This is one of the harder years to forecast that I've ever seen.  I can't remember so many teams getting spanked down so often.
 
2013-03-02 03:05:39 AM  
the article written to argue a team be top 4, proved they shouldn't be top 20.
 
2013-03-02 07:07:59 AM  

Cagey B: New Mexico's a good team. A very good team, even. But they've lost to South Dakota State. They were held to 34 points by San Diego State. Their best wins are over a rapidly imploding Cincinnati and two over Colorado State. They've got a decent profile, but that's not a 1 seed.


You forgot Connecticut!

I really do like the Lobos, they run that court and it is exciting.
 
2013-03-02 07:12:57 AM  
Dear espn-

Still trying to make BPI happen.
 
2013-03-02 09:14:59 AM  

yelmrog: JosephFinn: Why, did every player from soon-to-be #1 Gonzaga break a leg?

Even Gonzaga getting a #1 seed isn't a lock.  The NCAA tournament selection committee usually puts them a little lower than their final poll ranking due to the weak conference they play in.

Pretty sure this year they'll get a #1 though, provided they beat Portland tomorrow and breeze through the conference tournament.


And we'll have the strongest chance for our first #16-#1 upset.
 
2013-03-02 10:10:14 AM  
I thought March Madness was a US-only tournament...
 
2013-03-02 10:32:04 AM  

Cagey B: Dafatone: Gonzaga may have the better team, but from my point of view, New Mexico has the better resume. A couple more losses is more forgivable when fewer of your games are cakewalks, even if the toughest games New Mexico has played have been easier than Gonzaga's.

One could indeed look at it that way. In the end, this is the one of the reasons I like the tournament so much. These things end up getting settled pretty definitively.


Exactly.  Then I go back and look again, and while I do think New Mexico's win/loss resume is more impressive, their games have been much closer.  Against better competition on average, but Gonzaga's doing what they should do, which is crushing the bad teams they play.
 
2013-03-02 10:41:46 AM  
Alford is a dick

/also can't coach in the tournament
//hope they get a No. 1 seed so they lose to a 16
 
2013-03-02 10:57:26 AM  
So in other words, RPI is farking retarded.

Kenpom: New Mexico 28th

Sounds about right.
 
2013-03-02 11:21:35 AM  

TigersorHawksorBoth: Alford is a dick

/also can't coach in the tournament
//hope they get a No. 1 seed so they lose to a 16


I sat behind the bench at Iowa when Alford coached there. He dropped more f-bombs in the first 5 minutes of the game than Eddie Murphy does in a two-hour set.

I asked the student manager sitting in front of us if he is always like this...the kid's quote was: "this is nothing". And then after two Iowa turnovers, he called a timeout and just went nuclear on the kids...it was insane.

Since I'm an IU alum, I'm legally required to like the guy...but I would NEVER let my kid play for him.
 
2013-03-02 11:36:07 AM  

Coach_J: Since I'm an IU alum, I'm legally required to like the guy...


Ha, same here.  That's a good way to put it.

/graduated '87
//good times
 
2013-03-02 11:50:24 AM  

Coach_J: TigersorHawksorBoth: Alford is a dick

/also can't coach in the tournament
//hope they get a No. 1 seed so they lose to a 16

I sat behind the bench at Iowa when Alford coached there. He dropped more f-bombs in the first 5 minutes of the game than Eddie Murphy does in a two-hour set.

I asked the student manager sitting in front of us if he is always like this...the kid's quote was: "this is nothing". And then after two Iowa turnovers, he called a timeout and just went nuclear on the kids...it was insane.

Since I'm an IU alum, I'm legally required to like the guy...but I would NEVER let my kid play for him.


My moment in history is that if you watch the Northwestern State v. Iowa buzz beater in the 06 tournament. About three rows behind the Northwestern State bench, a fan in all black drops like has just been shot when the bucket goes in. That's me.

Only time I've yelled at a coach was when Alford was walking to the locker room after blowing that 19 point lead. I know he heard me since he stared me down the entire time.

Also was a dick in the bathroom at the Nutcracker when I said Hi. (that was before the Northwestern state gme)
 
2013-03-02 12:09:25 PM  
There's a New Mexico now?
 
2013-03-02 12:10:03 PM  

Cagey B: New Mexico's a good team. A very good team, even. But they've lost to South Dakota State. They were held to 34 points by San Diego State. Their best wins are over a rapidly imploding Cincinnati and two over Colorado State. They've got a decent profile, but that's not a 1 seed.


Couple of things...  While the loss to South Dakota State wasn't pretty (especially since it happened in the Pit), it gets overplayed as a "bad loss."  The Jacks are #72 in the RPI, and just out of the top 100 on kenpom (103).  They're also likely to win their conference and go dancing.   The first game against San Diego State was a nightmare.  I'll give you that.  But it was an off night...the Lobos got revenge Wed.

UNM's best OOC wins don't have quite the staying power I had hoped for (Cincy was #8 at the time), but they also don't have a loss to a TCU, Penn St., or Florida Gulf Coast.  They don't necessarily deserve a 1 seed at this point, but they should sure as hell be in the discussion.
 
2013-03-02 01:05:27 PM  

b0rg9: Coach_J: Since I'm an IU alum, I'm legally required to like the guy...

Ha, same here.  That's a good way to put it.

/graduated '87
//good times


/class of '94
//very good times
///would have like to been able to remember ONE Little 500 though
////and that entire summer I lived in Varsity Villas

Go IU!
 
2013-03-02 02:54:57 PM  

Cagey B: srhp29: dark brew: Should the top team from the top conference be a number 1 seed?  Uh, yeah.

I'm looking at the Mountain West and each team's schedule and saying to myself.  How does the RPI come up with the Mtn. West being the best conference in the country.  Seriously, people think the BCS computers are off?

As I understand it, some conferences manipulate RPI rating by requiring their teams to schedule a certain number of likely RPI top 50 squads each season. This inflates RPI rankings for teams even if they lose. I'm not sure if the Mountain West does this, but it would make sense if you're a mid-major conference of any sort that needs to game the system a little bit to get more bids come March. It also means though that assuming things like "top team in the top RPI conference" is a little dubious when it comes to determining a 1 seed.


Otherwise known as the C-USA strategy.  They're 5-12 against the RPI Top 50 (which really isn't bad) but they only have one sub-200 loss (and that was 205).  What Conference USA showed a couple of years ago is that, with the non-conference RPI, it's not really about who you beat, it's about who you play.  Look at Air Force.  Their best non-conference win was against #164 Nevada, but because they have losses to #22 Colorado, #42 Wichita State, #6 Florida, and #72 Richmond (by an average of 17 points per game), their non-conference SoS (and RPI) stay high.

In New Mexico's case, they've done a good job of feasting on good, but not great teams.  Their best non-conference win is over the Big East's 7th-best team, but they only have one game against a sub-200 team and they're 7-2 against the Top 80.
 
2013-03-02 04:02:38 PM  

TigersorHawksorBoth: Alford is a dick


He is the epitome of the Peter Principle.
 
2013-03-02 05:44:51 PM  
The MWC is a good league. UNM, Colorado State, SDSU, and UNLV are tourney locks. They might get one or two more in. UNM shouldn't be seeded lower than 4, and CSU shouldn't be lower than 5.
 
2013-03-02 08:52:50 PM  
Woof!
 
2013-03-02 10:58:16 PM  
That was a long article that could have been boiled down to this:

New Mexico has not played against a single team in the RPI top 15. Duke, Miami, Kansas, Indiana, Georgetown and Arizona all have multiple wins against the RPI top 15.

Next.
 
2013-03-03 02:18:53 AM  

Henry Holland: That was a long article that could have been boiled down to this:

New Mexico has not played against a single team in the RPI top 15. Duke, Miami, Kansas, Indiana, Georgetown and Arizona all have multiple wins against the RPI top 15.

Next.


Lol...talk about cherry picking your criteria.  Why do they cut it off at RPI top 15?  Because UNLV and CSU are 16 and 17.  The Lobos are 3-1 against them.

Can't argue with Indiana or Duke (sucks!) now that Kelly is back, but look at bad losses for the other teams.  Miami lost to FGCU, Kansas to TCU, Georgetown to USF.   Those are far worse than a loss to South Dakota State, who has climbed to a top 75 RPI ranking. Arizona's worst loss was to USC, but they aren't even in the discussion anymore after dropping 2 straight this week.
Any of those other contenders cut down nets today as the undisputed champions of the #1 RPI conference with 2 games to play?
 
2013-03-03 02:21:25 AM  

tnpir: The MWC is a good league. UNM, Colorado State, SDSU, and UNLV are tourney locks. They might get one or two more in. UNM shouldn't be seeded lower than 4, and CSU shouldn't be lower than 5.


Boise St. should also be in after beating CSU today.  5 of 9 teams in the league are going dancing.
 
2013-03-03 02:14:31 PM  
tollbooth_willy: Lol...talk about cherry picking your criteria.

LOL, I don't give a damn about criteria or RPI or teams other than UCLA, any of that, I was just commenting about how a lengthy post could have conveyed the same information in two sentences.
 
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