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(Wired)   10 Reasons why 3D printing won't be taking off in your lifetime   (wired.com) divider line 144
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11096 clicks; posted to Geek » on 19 Feb 2013 at 3:02 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-02-19 03:05:50 PM
I think we know who subby is. Or maybe we don't.
 
2013-02-19 03:09:38 PM
Those are just reasons it won't take off in the US. China, Vietnam and other Asian countries just will ignore those patents if they think they hurt their economy.
 
2013-02-19 03:15:30 PM
I, for one, am looking forward to printing-out my junk in 3D (as a Valentine's day gift for Mrs. Henry).
 
2013-02-19 03:17:29 PM
And once again, patents serve the exact opposite purpose for which they are intended, stifling innovation and killing small entrepreneurs.  GG.
 
2013-02-19 03:18:24 PM
I have seen technology go from a wooden box to a 1/4 inch thick rectangle with touch capacity with a resolution and capacity that people never dreamed of only 20 years ago...

I have seen 35mm film being "fine" for a long time due to claims that sensors would take decades to perfect and be a threat... which happened in less than 5 years after they broke through the technology....

I've seen printers go from dot matrixes to photo quality machines that scan, fax, print, at amazing quality that would have cost a leg just 20 years ago.

Our smartphones are probably more powerful that the computers that made the trips to the moon possible....

I have no idea when we'll really hit a snag and a block when it comes to technology, but we aren't there yet and these printers are probably just around the corner at this point.
 
2013-02-19 03:19:12 PM

oldfarthenry: I, for one, am looking forward to printing-out my junk in 3D (as a Valentine's day gift for Mrs. Henry).


Just put a pencil in a pencil sharpener and that should be close enough...?
 
2013-02-19 03:19:47 PM
Yeah, just like those pesky patents kept smartphones from "taking off."
 
2013-02-19 03:24:42 PM
When I got my Volvo C30 I quickly figured out it was missing coat hooks in back.  So, I took some measurements, fired up a free, web-based 3D design tool, designed a hook, and loaded the design to a 3D printing service.  I've sold 55 of the things to fellow C30 owners.   http://www.shapeways.com/shops/c30accessories
 
2013-02-19 03:24:49 PM
Considering that most of these are only problems for fused deposition and that we're starting to see laser sintering creep into the hobbyist market, I don't think many of these problems are going to stay problems for long.
 
2013-02-19 03:25:57 PM
So I can't spend $5,000 on a 3D printer to expand my Warhammer 40,000 armies???

/Yes, that would actually be the cheaper route to go
 
2013-02-19 03:26:00 PM
I just wanted to 3-D print an arsenal of lawn darts and other banned American consumer toys, and then terrorize my neighborhood on National night out.

/The dream is dead :(
 
2013-02-19 03:27:10 PM

imfallen_angel: Our smartphones are probably more powerful that the computers that made the trips to the moon possible....


My smartphone is more powerful than the desktop I was using less than a decade ago.
 
2013-02-19 03:27:30 PM
25.media.tumblr.com

TAKE OFF.
 
2013-02-19 03:33:15 PM
Hah!  How about "10 naive technology predictions that were wrong?"  Given enough of a need, people can usually find a clever way to do something someone else thought was impossible.
 
2013-02-19 03:33:52 PM

Fano: I think we know who subby is. Or maybe we don't.


It's the usual self professed know it all. The one who claims that she is a patent attorney who also wants us to believe all sorts of other fanciful notions about her.
 
2013-02-19 03:36:08 PM
Where's that guy that comes into sci-fi threads and sh*ts in everyone's faces? I thought he'd be here by now.
 
2013-02-19 03:37:47 PM

Great Janitor: So I can't spend $5,000 on a 3D printer to expand my Warhammer 40,000 armies???

/Yes, that would actually be the cheaper route to go


I only wish you were exaggerating.
 
2013-02-19 03:39:19 PM
imfallen_angel : Our smartphones are probably more powerful that the computers that made the trips to the moon possible.

One of my watches is more powerful than the computers that made the trips to the moon possible.

// all this power just so that it can read GPS and automatically adjust to the correct time zones so that I never have to worry about setting my watch when I travel.

// I think the greatest strength of 3d printing will be printing stuff in wax, that you can then use to produce a lost-wax casting of whatever part you need. Easily replicate a part in wax, then cast it in durable metal.
 
2013-02-19 03:41:27 PM
Great Janitor: So I can't spend $5,000 on a 3D printer to expand my Warhammer 40,000 armies???
/Yes, that would actually be the cheaper route to go

Teufelaffe: I only wish you were exaggerating.


Hmm, they're "minatures" so you can probably print a few in a single go.
 
2013-02-19 03:42:32 PM
Great.  I was going to use a 3D printer to make a car that runs on water.
 
2013-02-19 03:43:59 PM

sinanju: When I got my Volvo C30 I quickly figured out it was missing coat hooks in back.  So, I took some measurements, fired up a free, web-based 3D design tool, designed a hook, and loaded the design to a 3D printing service.  I've sold 55 of the things to fellow C30 owners.   http://www.shapeways.com/shops/c30accessories


Ok, that's cool.
 
2013-02-19 03:44:35 PM

lordargent: imfallen_angel : Our smartphones are probably more powerful that the computers that made the trips to the moon possible.

One of my watches is more powerful than the computers that made the trips to the moon possible.

// all this power just so that it can read GPS and automatically adjust to the correct time zones so that I never have to worry about setting my watch when I travel.

// I think the greatest strength of 3d printing will be printing stuff in wax, that you can then use to produce a lost-wax casting of whatever part you need. Easily replicate a part in wax, then cast it in durable metal.


This.  But if you don't care about the plastic fumes you can just go from plastic to metal.
 
2013-02-19 03:47:34 PM

lordargent: Great Janitor: So I can't spend $5,000 on a 3D printer to expand my Warhammer 40,000 armies???
/Yes, that would actually be the cheaper route to go

Teufelaffe: I only wish you were exaggerating.

Hmm, they're "minatures" so you can probably print a few in a single go.


Given that the sets cost from $50 up to $200, in a single go you could possibly print out $5,000 worth of Warhammer 40,000.  Maybe photoshop the templates so that my face is on the head of all the leader figures.
 
2013-02-19 03:48:24 PM
*looks at 3D printer sitting behind him*

Yeah, about that... the only thing patents are going to stymie are ready-made commercial machines, and even then only to a certain extent. Not much you can do about hobbyist/makergroup machines and people who sell kits and parts.

sure haven't: Where's that guy that comes into sci-fi threads and sh*ts in everyone's faces? I thought he'd be here by now.


He was last seen sh*tting in a thread completely unrelated to what he was complaining about. Guess he got tired of being on-topic.
=Smidge=
 
2013-02-19 03:50:08 PM

imfallen_angel: Our smartphones are probably more powerful that the computers that made the trips to the moon possible....


Our cell phones are much more powerful.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Guidance_Computer
 
2013-02-19 03:50:33 PM

Interesting article about how 3d printers could make gun-control laws meaningless.


Link
 
2013-02-19 03:50:56 PM

golden goat: Hah!  How about "10 naive technology predictions that were wrong?"  Given enough of a need, people can usually find a clever way to do something someone else thought was impossible.


Everything except flying cars.
 
2013-02-19 03:51:03 PM
Um no.
This is the future staring you in the face, kids.
 
2013-02-19 03:51:09 PM
Nah, in 5 years people will be txting 3D food to each other with their phones.
 
2013-02-19 03:52:11 PM

lordargent: imfallen_angel : Our smartphones are probably more powerful that the computers that made the trips to the moon possible.

One of my watches is more powerful than the computers that made the trips to the moon possible.

// all this power just so that it can read GPS and automatically adjust to the correct time zones so that I never have to worry about setting my watch when I travel.

// I think the greatest strength of 3d printing will be printing stuff in wax, that you can then use to produce a lost-wax casting of whatever part you need. Easily replicate a part in wax, then cast it in durable metal.


My brother has been doing something similar to this, except he's making positives in soft plastic in place of wax.  I don't think the printer will work directly with jeweler's wax.
 
2013-02-19 03:52:51 PM

oldfarthenry: I, for one, am looking forward to printing-out my junk in 3D (as a Valentine's day gift for Mrs. Henry).


for her benefit please use a 5 to 1 scal when creating it.  i know i know it won't be able to fit in your house, but humor me.
 
2013-02-19 03:54:49 PM

Black_Lazerus: oldfarthenry: I, for one, am looking forward to printing-out my junk in 3D (as a Valentine's day gift for Mrs. Henry).

for her benefit please use a 5 to 1 scal when creating it.  i know i know it won't be able to fit in your house, but humor me.


`Hon - look out the front window. I got you a new lawn sculpture!'
 
2013-02-19 03:54:53 PM
timujin: My brother has been doing something similar to this, except he's making positives in soft plastic in place of wax. I don't think the printer will work directly with jeweler's wax.

Hmm,

Can you do plastic, then make an open mold of that?
 
2013-02-19 03:55:58 PM
10 Reasons why 3D printing won't be taking off in your lifetime

11. Disney sues 3D printer manufacturers for copyright infringement.
www.wired.com
 
2013-02-19 03:57:24 PM

Smidge204: *looks at 3D printer sitting behind him*

Yeah, about that... the only thing patents are going to stymie are ready-made commercial machines, and even then only to a certain extent. Not much you can do about hobbyist/makergroup machines and people who sell kits and parts.


Yes, but low-cost ready-made commercial machines are exactly what is needed to reach critical mass.  Otherwise, 3D printing will remain a hobbyist/makergroup thing and never become the cultural revolution it could be.
 
2013-02-19 03:58:46 PM

lordargent: timujin: My brother has been doing something similar to this, except he's making positives in soft plastic in place of wax. I don't think the printer will work directly with jeweler's wax.

Hmm,

Can you do plastic, then make an open mold of that?


From what I understand, yes, but I haven't been paying a ton of attention.  If you'd like, though, I might be able to get the two of you in touch. EIP.
 
2013-02-19 04:01:01 PM

timujin: lordargent: imfallen_angel : Our smartphones are probably more powerful that the computers that made the trips to the moon possible.

One of my watches is more powerful than the computers that made the trips to the moon possible.

// all this power just so that it can read GPS and automatically adjust to the correct time zones so that I never have to worry about setting my watch when I travel.

// I think the greatest strength of 3d printing will be printing stuff in wax, that you can then use to produce a lost-wax casting of whatever part you need. Easily replicate a part in wax, then cast it in durable metal.

My brother has been doing something similar to this, except he's making positives in soft plastic in place of wax.  I don't think the printer will work directly with jeweler's wax.


The tech exists.

http://www.solid-scape.com/products/3d-printers/3d-printer-jewelry-c re ation
 
2013-02-19 04:01:36 PM

oldfarthenry: Black_Lazerus: oldfarthenry: I, for one, am looking forward to printing-out my junk in 3D (as a Valentine's day gift for Mrs. Henry).

for her benefit please use a 5 to 1 scal when creating it.  i know i know it won't be able to fit in your house, but humor me.

`Hon - look out the front window. I got you a new lawn sculpture!'


I are you going to place it in the middle of a bush? you know,  for accuracy.
 
2013-02-19 04:06:19 PM

HeartBurnKid: Yes, but low-cost ready-made commercial machines are exactly what is needed to reach critical mass. Otherwise, 3D printing will remain a hobbyist/makergroup thing and never become the cultural revolution it could be.


Point taken. A well made kit gets you a long way, though - "some assembly required" is not necessarily a huge hurdle.

To be honest, there is a lot lacking in the software/toolchain end of things, as well as the operation and maintenance of the machine (calibration especially). I think that is a bigger hurdle than patents on the machines themselves.


lordargent: Can you do plastic, then make an open mold of that?


PLA burns away cleaner than wax in "lost wax" casting applications. It works quite well!

=Smidge=
 
2013-02-19 04:06:21 PM

Basily Gourt: Interesting article about how 3d printers could make gun-control laws meaningless.
Link


Lawmakers are already responding by proposing a ban on instructions for using 3D printers for printing firearms and firearm accessories.
 
2013-02-19 04:08:36 PM

Karac: 10 Reasons why 3D printing won't be taking off in your lifetime

11. Disney sues 3D printer manufacturers for copyright infringement.
[www.wired.com image 660x622]


That would be like authors suing pencil manufacturers for making writing instruments.
Logic, how work it?

/Massive logic fail.
 
2013-02-19 04:08:49 PM

Dimensio: Basily Gourt: Interesting article about how 3d printers could make gun-control laws meaningless.
Link

Lawmakers are already responding by proposing a ban on instructions for using 3D printers for printing firearms and firearm accessories.


Glad they locked THAT barn door.
 
2013-02-19 04:09:38 PM
No, the reason 3d printing won't take off is simple economics -- your first 3d printed widget will cost the same as the 1,000th.
 
2013-02-19 04:11:54 PM

imfallen_angel: Our smartphones are probably more powerful that the computers that made the trips to the moon possible....


This really isn't a good comparison.  Computers for any sort of "flinging shiat into the great beyond" are privileged for reliability not raw power.  Old and not-quite-busted is much better than new hotness. So, comparing something that is bleeding edge to something that is specifically and intentionally chosen for non-bleeding-edgness isn't really a good simile
 
2013-02-19 04:12:07 PM
Wooo. Gotta feed the lawyers the future. Because all patents are valid and awesome and totally essential because no progress is inevitable.
 
2013-02-19 04:12:09 PM
Why it won't be taking off with open source projects

It is getting used for manufacturing, but not in the way that the media runs it's mouth about
 
2013-02-19 04:13:57 PM

Great Janitor: So I can't spend $5,000 on a 3D printer to expand my Warhammer 40,000 armies???

/Yes, that would actually be the cheaper route to go


I would think that Warhammer and other miniature spawning companies should license with Shapeways or Ponoko for official products.
 
2013-02-19 04:14:13 PM

imfallen_angel: I have seen technology go from a wooden box to a 1/4 inch thick rectangle with touch capacity with a resolution and capacity that people never dreamed of only 20 years ago...

I have seen 35mm film being "fine" for a long time due to claims that sensors would take decades to perfect and be a threat... which happened in less than 5 years after they broke through the technology....

I've seen printers go from dot matrixes to photo quality machines that scan, fax, print, at amazing quality that would have cost a leg just 20 years ago.



Well la-de-frickin da. Call me when you've seen attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion.
 
2013-02-19 04:16:11 PM
I love Wired, I really do, but I've pretty much given up on them when it comes to accurately projecting the future. Push Technology? The Long Boom? Rocket Science Games as the Future of Gaming? To my knowledge, in the 20 years they've been around, they've never once gotten anything right. But, I have to hand it to them: they did look good getting it wrong.
 
2013-02-19 04:16:57 PM

lordargent: imfallen_angel : Our smartphones are probably more powerful that the computers that made the trips to the moon possible.

One of my watches is more powerful than the computers that made the trips to the moon possible.

// all this power just so that it can read GPS and automatically adjust to the correct time zones so that I never have to worry about setting my watch when I travel.

// I think the greatest strength of 3d printing will be printing stuff in wax, that you can then use to produce a lost-wax casting of whatever part you need. Easily replicate a part in wax, then cast it in durable metal.


Z Corp was printing molds for non ferrous metals at least a 6 ago.
3-5 years ago I ran into someone printing molds for casting ferrous metals, I know linked images to that on Fark before
I would love to get my hands on the laser sintering machines just to see the output quality

Why could my bosses not reach an agreement with the 3d printer people on repping them, oh the fun I could have had.
 
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