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(Gizmodo)   What would actually happen if asteroid 2012 DA14 hit for real?   (gizmodo.com ) divider line
    More: Scary, kilometres per second, Department of Earth  
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17786 clicks; posted to Main » on 15 Feb 2013 at 9:48 AM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-02-15 12:25:48 PM  
I'll bet there's at least a remote chance the asteroid will hit, all the powers that be are heading to a "Remote location" in Colorado to "enjoy skiing".

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/02/15/michelle-obama-daugh te rs-going-skiing/comment-page-2/

/Tinfoil hat and all.
 
2013-02-15 12:31:38 PM  
Army units found three meteorite debris impact sites, two of which are in an area near Chebarkul Lake, west of Chelyabinsk. The third site was found some 80 kilometers further to the northwest, near the town of Zlatoust. One of the fragments that struck near Chebarkul left a crater six meters in diameter.

rt.com

A hole in Chebarkul Lake made by meteorite debris.
 
2013-02-15 12:34:47 PM  

DysphoricMania: FTFA: "releasing the energy equivalent of about 138 atomic bombs "...  It really gets on my tits when they say something like this.  No frame of reference, it's like saying "2,000 henweighs"....

About 4 lbs, in case you were asking....

X number of Hiroshima... hate that too. That is a weak way for people that have no understanding of physics to try and give information they don't themselves understand. Why not just do the math, and give us the megaton number? "138 atomic bombs"...? are we talking fat man, little boy, or Czar bomba? Do some damned fact checking...

Crap journalism. It must stop.


I'm not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing.  I think all of us like boobs, so getting on them would sound like something most of us would want to do.
 
2013-02-15 12:49:20 PM  

Snarfangel: DysphoricMania: FTFA: "releasing the energy equivalent of about 138 atomic bombs "...  It really gets on my tits when they say something like this.  No frame of reference, it's like saying "2,000 henweighs"....

About 4 lbs, in case you were asking....

X number of Hiroshima... hate that too. That is a weak way for people that have no understanding of physics to try and give information they don't themselves understand. Why not just do the math, and give us the megaton number? "138 atomic bombs"...? are we talking fat man, little boy, or Czar bomba? Do some damned fact checking...

Crap journalism. It must stop.

Brevity, man! You wrote a milli-Macbeth there.


Asteroid;

Get thee to a nunnery!!!!
 
2013-02-15 01:00:55 PM  
Some nervous types, mostly alarmist scientists and cunning commie environmentalists, would get all worked up and try to destroy the United States with socialist hoaxes by insisting that the Goobermint spend millions of dollars tracking the other 9,000 or so nuclear bomb-class Near Earth Objects bidding their time until they hit the Earth. It would be global warming, pollution, DDT and the anti-nuke movement all over again.

This asteroid is estimated at 3 megatons, which is bigger than some nukes, but not anywhere near the USSR's biggest 100-megatonners.

Just because a few hundred people get hurt, suddenly the sky is falling. The sky has fallen before, notably 65 million years ago when it fell on the dinosaurs. Meh! Who cares?

Fact-based thinking is just liberal idiots playing chicken little. Nothing bad will happen because God is an American.
 
2013-02-15 01:17:42 PM  
Это огромная вселенная
И мы все очень хилый
Мы всего лишь маленькие пятнышки
О размере Микки Руни.
Это большой и черный и чернильно
И мы малы и изящный
Это большой вселенной, и мы это не так.
 
2013-02-15 01:24:11 PM  
watchusplaygames.files.wordpress.com
 
2013-02-15 01:25:29 PM  
This meteor should serve as a reminder that it is a error to base estimates of the worst that can happen on the worst that has happened thus far.

You can't get a street light or a stop sign put up until somebody has died, and in the case of meteorite impacts, they are sufficiently rare as to be completely ignored as a threat. We are totally unprepared for them, and might not even spot the threat until the smoking crater is being examined by geologists and astronomers.

And yet, the estimated probability of you being killed by a meteorite is as high as 1 in 9,000. This is because a hit by a really big one is a mass extinction event, while smaller meteorites can wipe out millions. They are rare but they are massively damaging if and when they happen.

Nicholas Nassim Taleb, the economist and stock trader author of The Black Swan, warns that our tendency to "normalize" risk and grade it on a Bell Curve is a very serious error. And that is what this week should teach us.

The 2012 DA14 asteroid is the closest approach by an asteroid known to science. It's passing less than 18,000 miles away from Earth, close enough to take out a satellite (although this is very unlikely). At the speed that the space shuttle hit the atmosphere (18,000 miles an hour, by coincidence), the half-football field long chunk of rock will pass one hour away. Only a minute, barely perceptible change in its present course would be required for it to hit like an atom bomb, causing a tsunami (probably) or wiping out a major city (possibly).

In between stock market crashes speculators and regulators and politicians get lazy, greedy and stupid and start to think it can't happen again. But it does. And there's no reason whatsoever it can't happen many times worse.

President Bush-Obama did a fairly good job of responding to the most recent crash, which created an economic crisis of a size that happens once in half a century. World War I and World War II were unthinkable before they happened, vastly larger than any previous war--ever.

We have to stop thinking in lazy, easy "normal" terms and plan for the unthinkably worse than the worst we have ever seen.

One reason that global warming is not taken seriously by many is that it has never happened before while humans were human. Glaciations, yes, but no heat wave big enough to melt a polar ice cap. But that is what is happening NOW. The Arctic sea ice is a goner, man. This has never happened but it happens NOW. You can deny it, but you can't avoid it.

It would be nice if the asteroid did hit close enough to home to teach us to prepare for the next one.

But even this tiny visitor from space injured hundreds of people -- where there is no historical record of anybody being seriously hurt by a meteorite.

A couple of people have be struck by slow-moving pebble-sized fragments, and a dog was killed in the early XXth century, but nobody has been hurt on record.

Like the mysterious disappearance of the Springfield Hall of Records, this is probably because the records are missing, but even so, this is an historic event and should wake us up to the real and present danger of the next one.

1 in 9,000 is not terribly long odds. It's about what your chances of being murdered in a given year was during the peak of the crime wave that started with the maturing of the baby boom and the rise of the illegal drug trade in the 1970s.

And even though that 1 in 9,000 is a statistic average with little chance of happening soon, it points out the power of rare events with high price tags--black swans, that is.

It's not enough to be robust (prepared for things that have happened). Taleb urges us to become what he calls "anti-fragile", which is to say prepared for black swans and able to profit by learning and improving our defences when they happen rather than merely survive them.
 
2013-02-15 01:29:54 PM  
ecx.images-amazon.com
 
2013-02-15 01:31:01 PM  
asymptotia.com

/relevant to their interests
 
2013-02-15 02:19:29 PM  
i6.photobucket.com
 
2013-02-15 02:24:14 PM  

Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: It's only 150 feet across.  Yes, it's moving very fast, but unless it was a direct hit on a major city, the deaths probably wouldn't reach 100.


Err, considering that relatively small meter over rural Russia injured a thousand people, I'd bet that it'd be a much more significant event than that.
 
2013-02-15 02:26:36 PM  
Just passed perigee, Earth still here, yay :)
 
2013-02-15 02:48:26 PM  

grinding_journalist: Well...no, the scientists didn't say that. They said they estimated it would have an explosive power of 2.9 (airburst) to 3.3 megatons (groundburst), which is approximately 138 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. I get that TFA's author was just trying to make a comparison that more people could get, but I daresay the effects of exploding 138 Little Boys simultaneously would be a bit different from detonating one 3.3 megaton device.

If they wanted to be more accurate, it would be more like Teak shot of Operation Hardtack, detonated at a much lower altitude, likely minus the magnetic effects. Or, to put it another way, it's be along the lines of getting hit by 7-10 of the US's current nuclear ICBMs over the same area, in the same spot.

Would you like to know more? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HARDTACK_Teak

Wanna see what it'd do to your hometown?
http://www.carloslabs.com/projects/200712B/GroundZero.html
Unfortunately, the closest weapon listed on their site in terms of possible energy level is a Mk28(1.4mt), which is about half the power they say the asteroid could be; if you'd like to "real world" this, imagine all the circles are about 50% larger.

/has a nuke fetish


Wow, cool info.
 
2013-02-15 03:23:08 PM  
They landed in water. That would of been one hell of a splash.
 
2013-02-15 04:08:24 PM  
MindStalker: spentmiles: It'd be cool if we could throw some sort of ultra-strong chain around a passing asteroid.  Then it could pull the entire earth through space.  We could tour the universe and visit far away places like the moon without worrying about the intricacies of long-range space travel.  It'd be like an intergalactic hover-round carrying all the fat people of earth on incredible adventures.  Then, when we wanted to go a different direction, we could cut ties and lasso another passing asteroid.  Scientists are good with the details, but they can't see big picture stuff like I can.

You mean comet right? Asteroids are for the most part just orbiting the sun like we are.

So are comets.

In any case, for this idea to work, I cannot imagine the inertia required by something so much smaller than the earth to achieve enough mass momentum to pull the whole planet along with it - and break it from the sun's gravity.


Sorry, couldn't let that one go.
Momentum is the important value here.  An asteroid does not need to have a particular mass, it needs to have a particular momentum.  And since momentum is just m*v, it's a reasonably easy calculation to figure out the minimum (as in, assuming that all momentum is transferred to Earth) momentum required to alter Earth's velocity by a given amount.  Escape velocity is pretty easy, too, basically just the kinetic energy required to exactly cancel out gravitational potential at distance infinity.  For the sun, that's in the neighborhood of 40 kilometers a second.  I don't really feel like doing the calculations but, considering that Earth outweighs this thing by 18 orders of magnitude, I don't think it's physically possible for an asteroid this size to ever drag Earth out of the solar system as it would need to exceed c.  By a lot.
 
2013-02-15 04:26:10 PM  

Gawdzila: I don't think it's physically possible for an asteroid this size to ever drag Earth out of the solar system as it would need to exceed c. By a lot.


Technically even exceeding c by a little gives it infinite momentum.
 
2013-02-15 04:41:45 PM  

MindStalker: Gawdzila: I don't think it's physically possible for an asteroid this size to ever drag Earth out of the solar system as it would need to exceed c. By a lot.

Technically even exceeding c by a little gives it infinite momentum.


Uhhuh, and do you have any suggestions on how it's physically possible to make it exceed c?
 
2013-02-15 05:02:27 PM  

MindStalker: Gawdzila: I don't think it's physically possible for an asteroid this size to ever drag Earth out of the solar system as it would need to exceed c. By a lot.

Technically even exceeding c by a little gives it infinite momentum.


Haha, true.  To be fair I was ignoring relativistic effects since it makes in-the-head calculations a tad more difficult, but that's not to say that the effects wouldn't be significant.


YixilTesiphon: Uhhuh, and do you have any suggestions on how it's physically possible to make it exceed c?


No, but once I figure it out I'm patenting that shiat immediately.  Licensable at a reasonable price, of course, to anyone who might actually be able to build one.  I mean, how cool would it be to have the first warp drive named after you!?
 
2013-02-15 05:04:51 PM  
If DA14 had hit for real, all we would be hearing from the media is DISASTEROID this and DISASTEROID that.

/ The media loves them catch-words.
 
2013-02-15 05:10:36 PM  

Gawdzila: MindStalker: spentmiles: It'd be cool if we could throw some sort of ultra-strong chain around a passing asteroid.  Then it could pull the entire earth through space.  We could tour the universe and visit far away places like the moon without worrying about the intricacies of long-range space travel.  It'd be like an intergalactic hover-round carrying all the fat people of earth on incredible adventures.  Then, when we wanted to go a different direction, we could cut ties and lasso another passing asteroid.  Scientists are good with the details, but they can't see big picture stuff like I can.

You mean comet right? Asteroids are for the most part just orbiting the sun like we are.

So are comets.

In any case, for this idea to work, I cannot imagine the inertia required by something so much smaller than the earth to achieve enough mass momentum to pull the whole planet along with it - and break it from the sun's gravity.

Sorry, couldn't let that one go.
Momentum is the important value here.  An asteroid does not need to have a particular mass, it needs to have a particular momentum.  And since momentum is just m*v, it's a reasonably easy calculation to figure out the minimum (as in, assuming that all momentum is transferred to Earth) momentum required to alter Earth's velocity by a given amount.  Escape velocity is pretty easy, too, basically just the kinetic energy required to exactly cancel out gravitational potential at distance infinity.  For the sun, that's in the neighborhood of 40 kilometers a second.  I don't really feel like doing the calculations but, considering that Earth outweighs this thing by 18 orders of magnitude, I don't think it's physically possible for an asteroid this size to ever drag Earth out of the solar system as it would need to exceed c.  By a lot.



Wow you guys sure know how to ruin a joke
 
2013-02-15 05:32:15 PM  

apotheosis27: Gawdzila: MindStalker: spentmiles: It'd be cool if we could throw some sort of ultra-strong chain around a passing asteroid. Then it could pull the entire earth through space. We could tour the universe and visit far away places like the moon without worrying about the intricacies of long-range space travel. It'd be like an intergalactic hover-round carrying all the fat people of earth on incredible adventures. Then, when we wanted to go a different direction, we could cut ties and lasso another passing asteroid. Scientists are good with the details, but they can't see big picture stuff like I can.

You mean comet right? Asteroids are for the most part just orbiting the sun like we are.

So are comets.

In any case, for this idea to work, I cannot imagine the inertia required by something so much smaller than the earth to achieve enough mass momentum to pull the whole planet along with it - and break it from the sun's gravity.

Sorry, couldn't let that one go.
Momentum is the important value here. An asteroid does not need to have a particular mass, it needs to have a particular momentum. And since momentum is just m*v, it's a reasonably easy calculation to figure out the minimum (as in, assuming that all momentum is transferred to Earth) momentum required to alter Earth's velocity by a given amount. Escape velocity is pretty easy, too, basically just the kinetic energy required to exactly cancel out gravitational potential at distance infinity. For the sun, that's in the neighborhood of 40 kilometers a second. I don't really feel like doing the calculations but, considering that Earth outweighs this thing by 18 orders of magnitude, I don't think it's physically possible for an asteroid this size to ever drag Earth out of the solar system as it would need to exceed c. By a lot.

Wow you guys sure know how to ruin a joke


25.media.tumblr.com
 
2013-02-15 06:16:20 PM  

grinding_journalist: SpectroBoy: Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo: It's only 150 feet across.  Yes, it's moving very fast, but unless it was a direct hit on a major city, the deaths probably wouldn't reach 100.

Then again, the actual scientists (fta) said this:

This means that an asteroid like this would likely explode in the air, releasing the energy equivalent of about138 atomic bombs like the one that the Boeing B-29 SuperfortressEnola Gay dropped over Hiroshima on August 9, 1945

My guess is that if you explode the equivalent of 138 atomic bombs in ANY populated area, even a small town, deaths would be numerous.

Well...no, the scientists didn't say that. They said they estimated it would have an explosive power of 2.9 (airburst) to 3.3 megatons (groundburst), which is approximately 138 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. I get that TFA's author was just trying to make a comparison that more people could get, but I daresay the effects of exploding 138 Little Boys simultaneously would be a bit different from detonating one 3.3 megaton device.

If they wanted to be more accurate, it would be more like Teak shot of Operation Hardtack, detonated at a much lower altitude, likely minus the magnetic effects. Or, to put it another way, it's be along the lines of getting hit by 7-10 of the US's current nuclear ICBMs over the same area, in the same spot.

Would you like to know more? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HARDTACK_Teak

Wanna see what it'd do to your hometown?
http://www.carloslabs.com/projects/200712B/GroundZero.html
Unfortunately, the closest weapon listed on their site in terms of possible energy level is a Mk28(1.4mt), which is about half the power they say the asteroid could be; if you'd like to "real world" this, imagine all the circles are about 50% larger.

/has a nuke fetish


Thanks for the links... Planning to not work the rest of the afternoon.
 
2013-02-15 07:14:16 PM  
Boom.   Boom-boom-boom.
 
2013-02-15 09:13:45 PM  

Nicholas D. Wolfwood: Boom.   Boom-boom-boom.


Yeahhhh, heeyy!
 
2013-02-16 02:38:26 AM  

AnotherOldFart: [wemeantwell.com image 424x524]

IT'S OVER!!!


One of the better username and picture combos I've seen...
 
2013-02-16 08:57:13 PM  
Somewhere a cosmic Maxwell Smart is saying "missed it by that much!"
 
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