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(The Daily Caller)   Nate Silver admits to influencing the election for Obama   (dailycaller.com) divider line 155
    More: Obvious, Nate Silver  
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7018 clicks; posted to Politics » on 14 Feb 2013 at 6:31 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-02-14 02:37:14 PM  
Every article ever on daily caller: "WAAAAAHHHHHHH!!!!! NO FAIR!!!! ONLY REPUBLICANS SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO DO THIS!!!

Ha-farking-ha, losers!
 
2013-02-14 02:45:34 PM  
Yeah, maybe polls do have an effect. So what? Are we supposed to keep it all hush-hush?
 
2013-02-14 02:51:17 PM  
I was going to explain why this is so inane, but there's really no point is there? Idiots.
 
2013-02-14 02:52:28 PM  

St_Francis_P: Yeah, maybe polls do have an effect. So what? Are we supposed to keep it all hush-hush?



DRTFA, but is that what they are saying? Aren't these the same people that were saying the Polls mean nothing?
 
2013-02-14 02:53:28 PM  
Did he tell people that Obama had a black baby?
 
2013-02-14 02:55:10 PM  
And Vegas bookmakers influence the results of football games. After all, if the team weren't 10-point dogs, they wouldn't have used the "Nobody believes in us!" motivation, which would have meant their intensity suffered when they needed it, and mightn't have won the game at all.

Heisenbergian reality - it changes as you measure it.
 
2013-02-14 02:55:13 PM  
I hardly blame Silver's being right for the Romney loss.  I blame Romney.  Silver is just the messenger here.

We should have put up a better candidate and kicked out the women haters years ago.
 
2013-02-14 02:55:26 PM  
While this is true, I don't see what this has to do with Nate Silver. This is an issue with polling in general, not electoral forecasters.
 
2013-02-14 03:01:00 PM  

Dr Dreidel: And Vegas bookmakers influence the results of football games. After all, if the team weren't 10-point dogs, they wouldn't have used the "Nobody believes in us!" motivation, which would have meant their intensity suffered when they needed it, and mightn't have won the game at all.

Heisenbergian reality - it changes as you measure it.


You, more than most folks, should know that the only reason the Ravens won the Super Bowl was because they were underdogs the whole post-season.
 
2013-02-14 03:01:56 PM  
This is like saying the score of a football game inspires a team to lose.
 
2013-02-14 03:03:46 PM  
But...the Republican base was convinced of Romney's victory  despiteSilver's polling predictions...wouldn't that be the exact opposite of him influencing the election?
 
vpb [TotalFark]
2013-02-14 03:07:37 PM  
Well, the un-skewed polls don't seem to affect elections.  Or effect them.
 
2013-02-14 03:07:58 PM  

kid_icarus: But...the Republican base was convinced of Romney's victory  despiteSilver's polling predictions...wouldn't that be the exact opposite of him influencing the election?


in odd way I think Rove's bullshiat and Dick "head" Morris' bullshiat was aimed at somehow swaying the vote and it didnt' work.
 
2013-02-14 03:12:39 PM  

Gecko Gingrich: Dr Dreidel: And Vegas bookmakers influence the results of football games. After all, if the team weren't 10-point dogs, they wouldn't have used the "Nobody believes in us!" motivation, which would have meant their intensity suffered when they needed it, and mightn't have won the game at all.

Heisenbergian reality - it changes as you measure it.

You, more than most folks, should know that the only reason the Ravens won the Super Bowl was because they were underdogs the whole post-season.


Before RayRay announced his retirement, I wasn't betting on a SB appearance. Even afterward, I was expecting a loss to either DEN/NE. Once they beat DEN (and Flacco unleashed teh dagron), beating NE and making the SB looked far more likely.

Anyway, my point is that as reality changes, your expectations do as well. If the Ravens had won those close games in the 3rd quarter of the season (PIT/WAS/[oops, I forgot]), they'd have looked less like underdogs and wouldn't have needed 6th gear.

// I get your snark, though
 
2013-02-14 03:35:21 PM  
So does this mean he IS a witch?
 
2013-02-14 03:37:55 PM  

nekom: So does this mean he IS a witch?


There's only one way to be sure.

manmeetsscale.files.wordpress.com
 
2013-02-14 04:01:15 PM  
Nate Silver is not a pollster, he's a statitician (sp).

Push polling should be the real culprit.
 
2013-02-14 04:01:58 PM  

DammitIForgotMyLogin: Did he tell people that Obama had a black baby?


Not to mention he had sex with a married woman of color.
 
2013-02-14 04:01:59 PM  

bradkanus: in odd way I think Rove's bullshiat and Dick "head" Morris' bullshiat was aimed at somehow swaying the vote and it didnt' work.


It possibly prevented conservatives from being so demoralized they didn't bother going to the polls. In which case, it might be less accurate to say that it didn't work, and more accurate to say that it didn't work well enough to overcome their other campaign liabilities... like mediocre candidates trying to get acceptance to an unappealing platform.
 
2013-02-14 04:59:35 PM  

FirstNationalBastard: DammitIForgotMyLogin: Did he tell people that Obama had a black baby?

Not to mention he had sex with a married woman of color.


at least twice.  he had two black babies.
 
2013-02-14 05:05:59 PM  
One day, Nate Silver will be wrong. That will be an interesting day.
 
2013-02-14 05:07:58 PM  
Those stupid, lazy, and incompetent libs have outsmarted, outhustled, and outexecuted us again!

How do they do that!?
 
2013-02-14 05:10:02 PM  

vpb: Well, the un-skewed polls don't seem to affect elections.  Or effect them.


Despite their best efforts.

Bearing in mind "best" is a highly relative term for Dean Chambers.
 
2013-02-14 05:10:42 PM  
To be sure, some people will now accuse him of egotism and narcissism, but I actually agree with him. In fact this was precisely my point, when I wrote last year that,

This writer is not self-aware.  Does this cause one to be a Republican, or is that a symptom?
 
2013-02-14 05:13:10 PM  

thismomentinblackhistory: One day, Nate Silver will be wrong. That will be an interesting day.


That's just it, he can never be wrong. A rare event according to the numbers may occur, but unless he's said something is 100% likely and it doesn't happen, he can't be wrong about anything.
 
2013-02-14 05:14:51 PM  

Gecko Gingrich: Dr Dreidel: And Vegas bookmakers influence the results of football games. After all, if the team weren't 10-point dogs, they wouldn't have used the "Nobody believes in us!" motivation, which would have meant their intensity suffered when they needed it, and mightn't have won the game at all.

Heisenbergian reality - it changes as you measure it.

You, more than most folks, should know that the only reason the Ravens won the Super Bowl was because they were underdogs the whole post-season.


i.cdn.turner.com
"In my expert analysis based on over a decade as a pro-QB, the reason the Ravens won the Super Bowl was because they scored the most points."
 
2013-02-14 05:18:24 PM  
"Fortunately, I was there to counter that influence."

talkingpointsmemo.com
 
2013-02-14 05:18:37 PM  
Favorite Part - notice the actual date of the "recent tweet" = October 18th, 2012

i.imgur.com
And how did that theory work out for you Ben?
 
2013-02-14 05:18:46 PM  

Bashar and Asma's Infinite Playlist: thismomentinblackhistory: One day, Nate Silver will be wrong. That will be an interesting day.

That's just it, he can never be wrong. A rare event according to the numbers may occur, but unless he's said something is 100% likely and it doesn't happen, he can't be wrong about anything.


He had no influence over the past election. His blog, as you know if you've ever read it, is incredibly dry. He was consistently lumped in with the big polls as "the weird kid with the math." And he always allowed room for himself to be proven wrong because he really dug down into what the numbers actually meant, and accounted for how those numbers could swing, and then explained precisely how he came to his probability.

He's not flashy. He's not bombastic. He's not self-promoting.

Still, given his recent ascension as an electoral Svengali, it will be interesting to see how his wonky, boring, dry, ACCURATE ANALYSIS is treated in future cycles.

The main story to emerge this past cycle is how butthurt echo chamber Republicans were when their fuzzy math didn't pan out. Will they fall for it again, or will they pay attention to the real math?
 
2013-02-14 05:51:26 PM  
The headline implies that he may have fudged results in order to influence it.

You know, like Rasmussen does.
 
2013-02-14 05:59:13 PM  
It is certainly true that reporting and communicating various percentages of people who support/oppose candidacies can affect those debates. One person may be encouraged to go vote for Obama or Romney to be part of the winning side....yet another might be discouraged because their candidate is losing. The flip side is that it cuts both ways for both sides. A person who is happy to see their candidate in the majority vote might also think "Hey I don't need to vote now because its a sure thing." Likewise, the losing candidate's voter might say "Wow, I had better get myself and rally others to the polls to turn this around!" too. Just because Nate Silver says that some percentage is in the majority does NOT mean that any particular voter will make a particular decision because of that. That's foolish--people may react in many different ways to the same news.
 
2013-02-14 06:05:07 PM  
Does this "author" understand that Nate Silver doesn't conduct polls?
 
2013-02-14 06:08:21 PM  

Nina_Hartley's_Ass: "Fortunately, I was there to counter that influence."

[talkingpointsmemo.com image 300x300]


Me, too!

www.hollywoodreporter.com
 
2013-02-14 06:26:15 PM  

thismomentinblackhistory: One day, Nate Silver will be wrong. That will be an interesting day.


Nate Silver gives a probability. Even if Romney had won, Silver wouldn't necessarily have been wrong. The less probable event would have happened, that's all.

It's like someone has a bag filled with 100 red and blue marbles and draws one. Sliver is trying to predict how many marbles of each color are in the bag. The outcome of the election is the single marble that gets drawn.
 
2013-02-14 06:33:09 PM  
What was funny about the last election is that the guys who actually tried to use the polls to sway the voters failed miserably, and along the way, apparently convinced themselves that they were winning.
 
2013-02-14 06:37:12 PM  
www.indecisionforever.com

Deal with it libbos.
 
2013-02-14 06:38:02 PM  
Silver realizes that polling in general is already influencing the election anyway, so why stop examining those polls as if he is the real issue? All Silver is doing is aggregating polls at a level far above what I can do, as I don't understand statisticals enough since I haven't yet studied them out.
 
2013-02-14 06:39:20 PM  
I don't think so. It's not like there weren't polls predicting a Romney landslide. Unless Nate Silver thinks that the world is hanging on his every word.
 
2013-02-14 06:39:33 PM  

Krieghund: thismomentinblackhistory: One day, Nate Silver will be wrong. That will be an interesting day.

Nate Silver gives a probability. Even if Romney had won, Silver wouldn't necessarily have been wrong. The less probable event would have happened, that's all.

It's like someone has a bag filled with 100 red and blue marbles and draws one. Sliver is trying to predict how many marbles of each color are in the bag. The outcome of the election is the single marble that gets drawn.


People don't understand probability.  If you are reading this there is a 50% chance you are dumber than 50% of Farkers.  Since it is the politics tab, more like 80%.
 
2013-02-14 06:41:23 PM  
Is this proof that the previous election was affected by fraud and that Mr. Mitt Romney is now automatically President?
 
2013-02-14 06:42:39 PM  
Hey, do me a favor. If you're going to vote for somebody because of how they're polling, and not because of what you think about them, don't f*cking vote.

Seriously. Give up the franchise.
 
2013-02-14 06:43:35 PM  
Liberals influence elections with accurate polling.  Conservatives pass laws that amount to poll taxes, shorten voting times, gerrymander, fiddle around with the Electoral College...

The Daily Caller is complaining about the liberals.
 
2013-02-14 06:43:39 PM  

thismomentinblackhistory: One day, Nate Silver will be wrong. That will be an interesting day.


He's reading poll numbers. He can never be wrong. If Romney had won, Silver wouldn't have been wrong; the polls would have.
 
2013-02-14 06:47:22 PM  
Just remember kiddos .... polls compiling data about people's opinions = Dangerous pieces of propaganda used to sway elections.

Unlimited donations of anonymously sourced money contributions (even from outside international interests) = TEH FREE SPEECH!!11111
 
2013-02-14 06:52:09 PM  
both sides are bad

vote democrat
 
2013-02-14 06:52:28 PM  
The entire premise of this article if farking stupid. Silver doesn't even conduct polling. There were also dozens of other predictors saying Obama would win in a EC landslide. Anyone honestly reading the polls would've come to that conclusion, regardless of Silver.The reason why he got all the credit was because the Right attacked him so vociferously, he became the symbol of all polling prediction everywhere.
 
2013-02-14 06:56:40 PM  

nekom: So does this mean he IS a witch?


No, this means that Ted Nugent is automatically President, and FartBomba has to sing "Where You Going Now" at gunpoint.
 
2013-02-14 06:58:28 PM  
Wow, it's like all headlines are trollbait for mods and mods fall for it.  Every.  Single.  Time.

/welcome to FARK
 
2013-02-14 06:58:55 PM  
This is going to open the door to Rove and the Romney Campaign claiming that all of their polling was in fact accurate, but Silver and the Left Wing Media swung it for Obama.

Ugh...
 
2013-02-14 06:59:58 PM  

Lionel Mandrake: Liberals influence elections with accurate polling.  Conservatives pass laws that amount to poll taxes, shorten voting times, gerrymander, fiddle around with the Electoral College...

The Daily Caller is complaining about the liberals.


Oh yeah, because Liberals never do any of those things. I live in Connecticut, and the GOP used to be competitive here until they screwed with the congressional districts and made it impossible. We had a congressional candidate here that won something like 28 out of 42 cities in the district and STILL lost simply because Democrats divided up the inner cities into pieces and put a little slice of each into a different congressional district.
 
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