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(BGR)   Every 10 years, a cataclysm kills off most phone brands - the next one is almost here   (bgr.com) divider line 41
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5452 clicks; posted to Business » on 13 Feb 2013 at 2:50 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-02-13 01:18:48 PM  
Two data points isn't exactly enough to make a prediction like this.

imgs.xkcd.com
 
2013-02-13 01:30:33 PM  
imgs.xkcd.com
 
2013-02-13 01:48:11 PM  
imgs.xkcd.com
 
2013-02-13 02:05:14 PM  
is this gonna be one of those threads where we all post the same picture over and over again?
 
2013-02-13 02:14:59 PM  

SlothB77: is this gonna be one of those threads where we all post the same picture over and over again?


We only have 4 data points, we can't be sure.
 
2013-02-13 02:15:05 PM  

SlothB77: is this gonna be one of those threads where we all post the same picture over and over again?


Well, perhaps we can extrapolate and find out...
 
2013-02-13 02:19:26 PM  
xkcd comic X 10n

Where n = prior posts
 
2013-02-13 02:24:49 PM  
imgs.xkcd.com
 
2013-02-13 02:26:58 PM  

Brontes: SlothB77: is this gonna be one of those threads where we all post the same picture over and over again?

We only have 4 data points, we can't be sure.


Kyosuke: SlothB77: is this gonna be one of those threads where we all post the same picture over and over again?

Well, perhaps we can extrapolate and find out...


ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo I love fark so very very very much


but back to the article.
The majority of people replace their phones once every 5-10 years? This would lead to ~10 year cycles.
It isnt that their is a cataclysm, just the usual big item replacement cycle.

phones, cars (bike/motorcycle), tvs, fridge, stove, microwave

my phone 3gs, needs replacing, butI will probably wait until it breaks
1996 993 convertable, well, this will never get replaced - LOL
42" panasonic plasma, NEEDS replacing, probably a 60" this year
stove - meh, no moving parts and I dont use it enough
microwave was 10-15 years old and blew up, replaced it last year
bed - just replaced it with a super tempurpedic

the list goes on and on
PCs/laptops might have a 5 year replacement cycle if you are a gamer/work with comps. otherwise 5-10 cycle is about right.

cataclysm? LOLOL not so much
just a normal replacement cycle
 
2013-02-13 02:43:59 PM  

namatad: The majority of people replace their phones once every 5-10 years? This would lead to ~10 year cycles.


Phones are usually replaced at the end/beginning of a contract, no? In the USA, that would be every two years or so
 
2013-02-13 02:54:12 PM  

the_sidewinder: namatad: The majority of people replace their phones once every 5-10 years? This would lead to ~10 year cycles.

Phones are usually replaced at the end/beginning of a contract, no? In the USA, that would be every two years or so


You can do that?  I am getting a little tired carying around this bag phone.
 
2013-02-13 02:57:42 PM  
is this gonna be one of those threads where we all post the same picture over and over again?
 
2013-02-13 03:00:54 PM  
Depends on how you judge a "cataclysm".  Iphone and Galaxy have been the only strong models for more than a couple of years.  Ask Blackberry makers if they suffered a cataclysm recently.
 
2013-02-13 03:08:25 PM  
is this gonna be one of those threads where we all post the same picture over and over again?

\couldn't resist
 
2013-02-13 03:09:16 PM  

BumpInTheNight: is this gonna be one of those threads where we all post the same picture over and over again?


i think this is going to be an entirely different kind of thread altogether now.
 
2013-02-13 03:10:06 PM  

the_sidewinder: namatad: The majority of people replace their phones once every 5-10 years? This would lead to ~10 year cycles.

Phones are usually replaced at the end/beginning of a contract, no? In the USA, that would be every two years or so


possible
but I am guessing that most people are lazy like I am ...
and some phones require a payment plus a contract. not really interested in either given that I dont "need" the latest and greatest right now
 
2013-02-13 03:12:49 PM  
Wow this is quite the troll-tastic article.

Yet again, a new group of aggressive challengers rose late in the decade - Apple, HTC, LG, Huawei, ZTE and others started pursuing five-continent global expansion plans.

No mention of Samsung or Google.
 
2013-02-13 03:14:18 PM  

Bullseyed: Wow this is quite the troll-tastic article.

Yet again, a new group of aggressive challengers rose late in the decade - Apple, HTC, LG, Huawei, ZTE and others started pursuing five-continent global expansion plans.

No mention of Samsung or Google.


Or Blackberry.
 
2013-02-13 03:14:45 PM  
We're starting off pretty factually incorrect here ...

<blockquote>Back in 1993-1995, the Great Reckoning was triggered by the transition from analog networks to digital networks (GSM, TDMA, CDMA). Most handset vendors were taken by surprise when GSM suddenly took off faster than expected. Companies with serious analog phone development programs (IBM, Benefon, Blaupunkt, OKI, etc.) simply could not handle the rapid change. </blockquote>

the US transition to TDMA/CDMA didn't happen until 1999. I can't speak for outside of the US.  Benefon, Blaupunkt, OKI, were all Nokia phones. I don't know about anythign IBM had other than their super techie phone that they brought up in the article.

Nokia nearly failed in the US by banking on GSM, whereas CDMA turned out to be the dominant system until very recently, and only changing because the new AT&T (which has nothing to do with the original AT&T wireless) is buying up as much of the market as they can and converting it to GSM wherever possible.
 
2013-02-13 03:23:09 PM  

namatad: The majority of people replace their phones once every 5-10 years? This would lead to ~10 year cycles.


Not sure what universe you live in. Most people replace their phones every 2 years or less, which is why most wireless carriers had to cut their new phone subsidies. it takes them over 2 years to make back the money they were paying as a subsidy up front + the subsidy on the phone itself.

Also:

namatad:my phone 3gs, needs replacing, butI will probably wait until it breaks

The article specifically stated that the last two were caused by changes in the wireless transmission technology (GSM and 3G) so the reason you give is exactly the reason the article cited, after you disagreed with the article.

If you want to take the "replacement cycle" angle, then the replacement cycle is whenever they come out with a new network type. New network type phones become available, everyone updates. 4G is the only one of those new network types that didnt trigger a mass switch.
 
2013-02-13 03:31:26 PM  

namatad: the_sidewinder: namatad: The majority of people replace their phones once every 5-10 years? This would lead to ~10 year cycles.

Phones are usually replaced at the end/beginning of a contract, no? In the USA, that would be every two years or so

possible
but I am guessing that most people are lazy like I am ...
and some phones require a payment plus a contract. not really interested in either given that I dont "need" the latest and greatest right now


Seems like in the US, it's about 22 months on average...     perhaps you're Finnish, though? (http://deadspin.com/5983913/?utm_campaign=socialflow_deadspin_twitte r& utm_source=deadspin_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow
 
2013-02-13 03:32:11 PM  
 
2013-02-13 03:50:01 PM  
Damn you Deathwing!
 
2013-02-13 03:53:03 PM  

ekdikeo4: the US transition to TDMA/CDMA didn't happen until 1999. I can't speak for outside of the US.  Benefon, Blaupunkt, OKI, were all Nokia phones. I don't know about anythign IBM had other than their super techie phone that they brought up in the article.


More like 94-95.  I was working for Qualcomm at the time, it was a fun time to be there.
 
2013-02-13 04:11:55 PM  
imgs.xkcd.com

/because I can
 
2013-02-13 04:38:30 PM  
Has anyone posted the extrapolating comic from XKCD yet?

Also, 'Twlight of the Gods' is a great name for an apocalyptic event.
 
2013-02-13 06:41:21 PM  
Distance between posts of the XKCD Extrapolating Cartoon

0
0
0
4
16
1 (incomplete)

Clearly XKCDEC are separated from each other by 2xn posts, so the next XKCDEC cartoon should be along after 64 posts.
 
2013-02-13 06:44:40 PM  

brantgoose: Distance between posts of the XKCD Extrapolating Cartoon

0
0
0
4
16
1 (incomplete)

Clearly XKCDEC are separated from each other by 2xn posts, so the next XKCDEC cartoon should be along after 64 posts.


Fark that!
www.zerohedge.com
 
2013-02-13 06:52:49 PM  
I would be curious to see how many economies have emerged from, or are emerging from 3rd world status now, than for the last two 'busts'. I have to think India and China have become major consumers, for example, thus possibly preventing a contraction. Not saying China was 3rd world back then, but people have a lot more disposable income there these days...
 
2013-02-13 10:06:50 PM  

Snotnose: ekdikeo4: the US transition to TDMA/CDMA didn't happen until 1999. I can't speak for outside of the US.  Benefon, Blaupunkt, OKI, were all Nokia phones. I don't know about anythign IBM had other than their super techie phone that they brought up in the article.

More like 94-95.  I was working for Qualcomm at the time, it was a fun time to be there.


I'm reasonably certain that Sprint brought up the first CDMA towers in mid 1998, and
www.telephoneart.com
SCH 1000 was the first CDMA phone publically available from Sprint, with the Qcom 1920 (860 for Verizon) also in the same batch.

/hotlink

I can't find a specific date on release of the SCH1000 or 1920, but I'm reasonably certain that they were 1998 as well.  I realize I said 1999 earlier, but I definitely mis-remembered.

I could be wrong, too, but that's my experience.  According to Wiki, Sprint originally ran a GSM carrier in Baltimore-Washington in 1995, but it wasn't till 1998 that things went national.
 
2013-02-13 10:56:08 PM  
Not true, it was 2 months AFTER the last Cataclysm that I quit WoW.
 
2013-02-13 11:01:25 PM  

ladyfortuna: I would be curious to see how many economies have emerged from, or are emerging from 3rd world status now, than for the last two 'busts'. I have to think India and China have become major consumers, for example, thus possibly preventing a contraction. Not saying China was 3rd world back then, but people have a lot more disposable income there these days...


Africa is apparently a fantastic market for smartphones. Not just leapfrogging the whole landline infrastructure, but also doing all their banking via e-wallet.
 
2013-02-13 11:11:15 PM  
His premise is that there are technological shifts that make thin the herd of cell phone makers and that one happened 20 years ago and another happened 10 years ago.  But he failed to predict what big shift will lead to the next culling.

What's the technology that will make phones significantly better that some manufacturers will miss the boat on?
 
2013-02-14 12:34:29 AM  

Suckmaster Burstingfoam: ladyfortuna: I would be curious to see how many economies have emerged from, or are emerging from 3rd world status now, than for the last two 'busts'. I have to think India and China have become major consumers, for example, thus possibly preventing a contraction. Not saying China was 3rd world back then, but people have a lot more disposable income there these days...

Africa is apparently a fantastic market for smartphones. Not just leapfrogging the whole landline infrastructure, but also doing all their banking via e-wallet.


I honestly can't quite decide if you're serious, or implying a Nigerian Prince joke. Either way, interesting or amusing :)
 
2013-02-14 05:12:45 AM  

Mr. Eugenides: His premise is that there are technological shifts that make thin the herd of cell phone makers and that one happened 20 years ago and another happened 10 years ago.  But he failed to predict what big shift will lead to the next culling.

What's the technology that will make phones significantly better that some manufacturers will miss the boat on?


Replacing credit cards as the major way of buying stuff maybe?
 
2013-02-14 07:08:06 AM  
Ya know, if no one is even gonna bother with headlines anymore, fark should just use a scraper and be done with it.
 
2013-02-14 07:23:39 AM  

ekdikeo4: Nokia nearly failed in the US by banking on GSM, whereas CDMA turned out to be the dominant system until very recently, and only changing because the new AT&T (which has nothing to do with the original AT&T wireless) is buying up as much of the market as they can and converting it to GSM wherever possible.


Nobody is converting anything to GSM.

in 2 years, every major US operator will be (vo)LTE.
 
2013-02-14 09:16:13 AM  

ladyfortuna: Suckmaster Burstingfoam: ladyfortuna: I would be curious to see how many economies have emerged from, or are emerging from 3rd world status now, than for the last two 'busts'. I have to think India and China have become major consumers, for example, thus possibly preventing a contraction. Not saying China was 3rd world back then, but people have a lot more disposable income there these days...

Africa is apparently a fantastic market for smartphones. Not just leapfrogging the whole landline infrastructure, but also doing all their banking via e-wallet.

I honestly can't quite decide if you're serious, or implying a Nigerian Prince joke. Either way, interesting or amusing :)


Dude, apparently, Africans can keep all their money in electronic form on their smartphone or something. It's this whole new thing. I know, I know, lawn etc., eh?

Sure is gonna piss off Amurrica when they get technologically leapfrogged by Africans later this century. Africa will have all the flying cars and humanoid robots and cybernetic implants, and USA! USA! will still be driving gasoline-powered trucks and jumping up and down saying ooga-booga every Sunday at the local megachurch.
 
2013-02-14 01:42:46 PM  

abhorrent1: Ya know, if no one is even gonna bother with headlines anymore, fark should just use a scraper and be done with it.


i was thinking something similar for the comment threads

brilliant!
 
2013-02-14 03:36:06 PM  
Suckmaster Burstingfoam:

Sure is gonna piss off Amurrica when they get technologically leapfrogged by Africans later this century. Africa will have all the flying cars and humanoid robots and cybernetic implants, and USA! USA! will still be driving gasoline-powered trucks and jumping up and down saying ooga-booga every Sunday at the local megachurch.

I plan to be dead by then anyway...
 
2013-02-15 03:37:58 AM  

Suckmaster Burstingfoam: Dude, apparently, Africans can keep all their money in electronic form on their smartphone or something. It's this whole new thing. I know, I know, lawn etc., eh?


Heh.  Basically, a lot of people there have prepaid plans (as opposed to monthly contracts) and add credit from scratch-cards, so the carriers set up systems where you can send credit from your account to your friend's account.  I dunno how the part where they then spend that credit for something other than calling works, though.

/friends and family there
 
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