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(Gawker)   NYC will get either 3 or 30 inches of snow this weekend. EVERYBODY MAYBE PANIC   ( divider line
    More: Scary, Hurricane Sandy, weather model, snow  
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8396 clicks; posted to Main » on 06 Feb 2013 at 6:45 PM (4 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»

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2013-02-06 07:50:21 PM  
2 votes:
As mentioned by someone earlier, but worth mentioning again, here's the problem:

RED: 1000-700mb = 2840m     CYAN: 850-700mb = 1540m     YELLOW: 1000-850mb = 1300m     PURPLE: 700-500mb = 2560mGREEN: 850-500mb = 4100m     WHITE: 1000-500mb = 5400m     BLUE: 850mb 0°C Isotherm

Each of those lines is a different metric which can be reliably used to predict the rain-snow line.  Here, at the height of the storm, NYC is right on the edge.  A small shift could make the difference between almost all rain and almost all snow.

And this is just one model.
2013-02-06 06:54:29 PM  
2 votes:

Ennuipoet: Good job weather forecasting.

We're still 4 days away and when you're hanging out near 32, one measly degree makes a gargantuan difference in terms of what precipitation you get.
2013-02-06 09:03:02 PM  
1 vote:
Subby and many commenters are apparently unaware of the complexities of New England winter storms. This is a classic case of an Alberta Clipper coming in from the Northwest and a storm system moving Northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico, bringing lots of yummy moisture with it. They may or may not collide off the mid-Atlantic coast, over the moderately warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

Or the timing might be off and they don't meet.

But if they do, there's a tendency for rapid intensification as the Arctic air meets the much warmer air, with the Atlantic feeding additional moisture. Such systems often - but not always - tend to accelerate to the Northeast, dropping large amounts of precipitation along the way. This is a "Nor'Easter". If they stall off the coast, you get a 1978 scenario with several feet of snow and dozens of deaths. If they don't, maybe a foot or two and a big headache. Or maybe it'll track 200 miles east and it'll be a couple of inches.

Weather forecasting is not an exact science, and this scenario has more variables than your usual strong cold front triggering tornadoes in the South.
2013-02-06 08:53:15 PM  
1 vote:
And once again, so begins the countdown to the inevitable and never-ending barrage of "New Yorkers Are Resilient" stories for the entire weekend. Reported by, of course - NY journalists.

Film at 11:00, 11:01, 11:02, 11:03, 11:04, 11:05, 11:06, 11:07, 11:08, 11:09, 11:10, 11:11, 11:12, 11:13, 11:14, 11:15, 11:16, 11:17, 11:18, 11:19, 11:20, 11:21, 11:22............

I am so glad not a single thing will be going on in the world this weekend. Unless there is a bus crash that might happen 25 miles from the Lincoln Tunnel and could have been really, really tragic had people actually been on the bus as opposed to the bus being out of service and on its way to a maintenance facility NJ to be vacuumed. BUT IF IT HAD BEEN IN SERVICE, the thought of a bus crash in a light snowfall in the vicinity of a tunnel across the river and miles from the WTC would be enough to stop all other reporting of the news. Plus it could have been blamed on obese terrorists seeking to protest the new 16oz sharia soda laws in the city enacted because of Obama shot a skeet rifle once.

MSNBC could then assign Alex Witt and Ann Curry to do a snowbound showdown of "Duelling Good Mornings" cage death match interspersed with video vignettes featuring MSNBC personalities reflecting on the reflecting on the integrity of Americans who they hope will watch MSNBC during the apocolyptic 3 inches of snow that will paralyze the region, forcing them to stay home and for survival in the bitter winter, buy products (to be delivered by FedEx) the network sponsors advertise which pay the salaries of the commentators who are describing the moment by moment end of civilization at the hands of Mother Nature and her inhumane delivery of 3 inches of snow.


And certainly, Fox News will have their own version of the above events but will somehow invclude Benghazi, Charles Krauthammer pontificating and Steve Doocy getting confused by the teleprompters.

And all this, because NYC is going to get a pansy-arse dusting of snow. Yes, it makes sense now.
2013-02-06 08:42:21 PM  
1 vote:
What is Nate Silver predicting?
2013-02-06 07:33:32 PM  
1 vote:
I'm prepared either way. My panic is in a constant state of readiness
2013-02-06 07:31:30 PM  
1 vote:
I've never heard of the RPM model and I'm a meteorologist. Google doesn't bring much up - a commercial WRF variant? Eh?

Go with ECMWF - their data assimilation kicks our ass and it's embarrassing because our models are probably better than theirs. But, garbage in, garbage out.

I'm in Michigan where we're supposed to get 10 inches. Will be the first significant snow of the year - haven't had more than 2 inches all goddammed year. XC skis are at the ready.
2013-02-06 07:16:33 PM  
1 vote:
Funny, that is what I always tell the ladies.  You are going to get somewhere between 3 and 30 inches, but if you want 30, I am going to need to put it in 10 times.
2013-02-06 07:15:31 PM  
1 vote:
there is literally nothing that can happen in new york city that i would give a shiat about.
2013-02-06 07:04:17 PM  
1 vote:

C18H27NO3: A few years ago wasn't it predicted that we would have the largest hurricane season EVAR...

Since probability doesn't work that way, no, probably not.
2013-02-06 07:02:39 PM  
1 vote:
I still remember 1967 in Chicago...

"It will be partly cloudy tomorrow with a very slight chance of snow so I'm just going to put one flake up on the map" -John Coleman
2013-02-06 07:01:19 PM  
1 vote:

12349876: Ennuipoet: Good job weather forecasting.

We're still 4 days away and when you're hanging out near 32, one measly degree makes a gargantuan difference in terms of what precipitation you get.
2013-02-06 06:58:59 PM  
1 vote:
I don't care which model is more accurate. I am still going to go out and buy bread & milk tomorrow morning.
2013-02-06 06:57:50 PM  
1 vote:
I'd turn on the Weather Channel but I would get some lifeguard or Coast Guard show. They also don't give my local forecast anymore.
2013-02-06 06:56:01 PM  
1 vote:
Lava would be better...
2013-02-06 06:53:44 PM  
1 vote:
Precious little snowflakes put in harms way by snowflakes.  Oh whatever shall we do???
2013-02-06 06:50:20 PM  
1 vote:
prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
2013-02-06 06:24:01 PM  
1 vote:
Yes, another weather forecast for NYC in which the world will either end or nothing what so ever will occur.  Good job weather forecasting.
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