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(Gawker)   NYC will get either 3 or 30 inches of snow this weekend. EVERYBODY MAYBE PANIC   (gawker.com) divider line 135
    More: Scary, Hurricane Sandy, weather model, snow  
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8367 clicks; posted to Main » on 06 Feb 2013 at 6:45 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-02-06 07:42:47 PM
http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:10001.5.99999

Not too worried- these guys are usually pretty good.
 
2013-02-06 07:43:54 PM
I told my first wife she would be getting either 3 or 30 inches, depending on how good at teh maths she was.
 
2013-02-06 07:44:57 PM
So if there's only 15", do they semi-panic? How does that work?
 
2013-02-06 07:46:13 PM
The inlaws are supposed to drive in from PA to take the boy for the week so I am most certainly not getting a kick out of this ambiguity
 
2013-02-06 07:46:49 PM

Gyrfalcon: So if there's only 15", do they semi-panic? How does that work?


that's not semi-panic. That's semi-erect for some of us, dollface.

/no idea what I'm going for here
 
2013-02-06 07:48:48 PM

GF named my left testicle thundercles: there is literally nothing that can happen in new york city that i would give a shiat about.


Your bank account may give a shiat. Granted, someone with such a worldly view probably isn't worth much.
 
2013-02-06 07:49:18 PM

born_yesterday: But I bet the stores sold a lot of toilet paper and white bread.


I'm in CT and I stopped at the store on my way home from work tonight (please note: it is WEDNESDAY) and couldn't park. People were already stocking up.

I mean, yeah, my office is doing the "let it snow!" dance so we can work from home Friday and not have to go in, but what the hell are people stocking up for? Even if we get 30", it will be inconvenient for a day or two (unless we lose power... CL&P sucks at that)... and in the former case, there's no need to stock up and in the latter, all of us with electric stoves can't cook the food we have before it spoils, anyway, so it's all pointless.  *shrug*   It's the NorthEast. It snows here.

That doesn't mean I won't buy some extra wine, but still....
 
2013-02-06 07:50:21 PM
As mentioned by someone earlier, but worth mentioning again, here's the problem:
climate.cod.edu

RED: 1000-700mb = 2840m     CYAN: 850-700mb = 1540m     YELLOW: 1000-850mb = 1300m     PURPLE: 700-500mb = 2560mGREEN: 850-500mb = 4100m     WHITE: 1000-500mb = 5400m     BLUE: 850mb 0°C Isotherm


Each of those lines is a different metric which can be reliably used to predict the rain-snow line.  Here, at the height of the storm, NYC is right on the edge.  A small shift could make the difference between almost all rain and almost all snow.

And this is just one model.
 
2013-02-06 07:50:55 PM

Igor Jakovsky: When I lived in Brooklyn, Central Park got 24 in of snow.  I thought that was cool as shiat since I grew up in FL and hadn't seen anything like that before.  This was circa 2006.

/it wasnt that great once it started to melt.


We were there after Christmas a couple years ago when they supposedly got 8" of snow in the subway stations. The g/f and I went to a show, crossed Times Square on our way out, and ended up having a midnight snowball fight in the middle of Broadway, surrounded by abandoned police cars and taxis. Visibility was pretty limited, but it felt like there were about 20 people in all of Times Square.

That was some extremely surreal I Am Legend shiat that night.

// Walked back to the hotel in the worst of it. Stopped off for hot cocktails halfway. Still have the picture the bartender took of us encased in ice somewhere.
 
2013-02-06 07:53:13 PM
www.thesundaytimes.co.uk
 
2013-02-06 07:54:42 PM

RectalFury: GF named my left testicle thundercles: there is literally nothing that can happen in new york city that i would give a shiat about.

Your bank account may give a shiat. Granted, someone with such a worldly view probably isn't worth much.


city envy. Widespread in the US and especially on Fark.
Seriously guys, Columbus, OH is just as good
 
2013-02-06 07:55:27 PM

Jon iz teh kewl: everybody?? i live in Florida


you should DEFINITELY panic.
 
2013-02-06 07:58:03 PM
2.bp.blogspot.com

/A licky boom boom down
 
2013-02-06 07:58:09 PM

wxboy: As mentioned by someone earlier, but worth mentioning again, here's the problem:
[climate.cod.edu image 800x600]


Interesting... I knew the 1000-500 mb thickness figure by heart, but not the other freezing lines. Thanks.

/Think it was this morning's 12Z NAM run that was giving over 4 feet to Boston
//Which, in my experience, may actually be over the heads of many of its adult inhabitants
 
2013-02-06 07:59:49 PM

clowncar on fire: [www.thesundaytimes.co.uk image 580x386]


    Please God!  Don't let me die on West 31st Street!!!
 
2013-02-06 08:03:06 PM
Ha ha. I'll be Cambodia on Saturday. 95 degrees!
 
2013-02-06 08:03:54 PM

Badgers: [2.bp.blogspot.com image 850x833]

/A licky boom boom down


Dammit.  I was almost to the end of the thread and thought I'd be the one.  *tips hat*
 
2013-02-06 08:05:16 PM

freewill: We were there after Christmas a couple years ago when they supposedly got 8" of snow in the subway stations. The g/f and I went to a show, crossed Times Square on our way out, and ended up having a midnight snowball fight in the middle of Broadway, surrounded by abandoned police cars and taxis. Visibility was pretty limited, but it felt like there were about 20 people in all of Times Square.

That was some extremely surreal I Am Legend shiat that night.


I
25.media.tumblr.com
 
2013-02-06 08:05:44 PM

skullkrusher: Gyrfalcon: So if there's only 15", do they semi-panic? How does that work?

that's not semi-panic. That's semi-erect for some of us, dollface.

/no idea what I'm going for here


Going for a sibling for the Count, is what your wife will be thinking.
 
2013-02-06 08:13:05 PM

Gyrfalcon: skullkrusher: Gyrfalcon: So if there's only 15", do they semi-panic? How does that work?

that's not semi-panic. That's semi-erect for some of us, dollface.

/no idea what I'm going for here

Going for a sibling for the Count, is what your wife will be thinking.


soon enough, soon enough
 
2013-02-06 08:15:11 PM
Gosh, it's going to be 61 degrees tomorrow in La La land.

A little bit chilly, I admit. I may opt to wear a long sleeve shirt.
 
2013-02-06 08:17:28 PM
Supposed to be 8-14" here in Vermont, almost all of it on Friday afternoon/evening. Oh goody.
 
2013-02-06 08:18:14 PM
What's its name?
 
2013-02-06 08:19:28 PM

clowncar on fire: [www.thesundaytimes.co.uk image 580x386]


EVERYBODY MOVE TO MEXICO!.
 
2013-02-06 08:23:24 PM

SirEattonHogg: Gosh, it's going to be 61 degrees tomorrow in La La land.

A little bit chilly, I admit. I may opt to wear a long sleeve shirt.


And so say all of us, Tap into America!

/Orange County here
//Only going to be 59 here tomorrow
///May dig out my jacket
 
2013-02-06 08:30:31 PM
These people work in offices with no windows. Maybe one of them should go out once in a while to check the weather...
 
2013-02-06 08:30:49 PM

Ennuipoet: Yes, another weather forecast for NYC in which the world will either end or nothing what so ever will occur.  Good job weather forecasting.


Yes, but that last one in October was pretty farking big.
 
2013-02-06 08:31:16 PM
TV weatherman may be the easiest job in the world.
 
2013-02-06 08:39:34 PM
i.imgur.com
 
2013-02-06 08:40:24 PM

bikerbob59: What's its name?


Nemo.
 
2013-02-06 08:40:46 PM
Feel bad about the hurricane Sandy folks.
 
2013-02-06 08:41:54 PM

Jon iz teh kewl: everybody?? i live in Florida


I would prefer to have liquid magma raining from the skies than live in Florida...but to each their own.
 
2013-02-06 08:42:21 PM
What is Nate Silver predicting?
 
2013-02-06 08:46:05 PM

wxboy: As mentioned by someone earlier, but worth mentioning again, here's the problem:
[climate.cod.edu image 800x600]

RED: 1000-700mb = 2840m     CYAN: 850-700mb = 1540m     YELLOW: 1000-850mb = 1300m     PURPLE: 700-500mb = 2560mGREEN: 850-500mb = 4100m     WHITE: 1000-500mb = 5400m     BLUE: 850mb 0°C Isotherm


Each of those lines is a different metric which can be reliably used to predict the rain-snow line.  Here, at the height of the storm, NYC is right on the edge.  A small shift could make the difference between almost all rain and almost all snow.

And this is just one model.


That sounds exactly like what a Southern snow storm ends up like.  They're so farking fickle around here, you never know what you're going to get.
 
2013-02-06 08:46:47 PM

balisane: No classes after 3pm Friday; therefore don't give a damn either way.


This; the only reason I even care to follow it is because I was going to visit my dad for his birthday, but he understands that if there is snow, I'm not driving on 390 unless it's an emergency.
 
2013-02-06 08:50:23 PM
AND IT'S BLOODY CALLED NEMO!! EVERYONE DORI!!
 
2013-02-06 08:50:39 PM
No videogames until you kids finish building my snowman army.
 
2013-02-06 08:51:05 PM
It makes no difference whether it is 3 inches or 30 inches of snow. New Yorkers will complain exactly the same. Because if they complained less about 3 inches than 30 inches, that would mean that could complain harder.

Which is absurd.
 
2013-02-06 08:53:15 PM
And once again, so begins the countdown to the inevitable and never-ending barrage of "New Yorkers Are Resilient" stories for the entire weekend. Reported by, of course - NY journalists.

Film at 11:00, 11:01, 11:02, 11:03, 11:04, 11:05, 11:06, 11:07, 11:08, 11:09, 11:10, 11:11, 11:12, 11:13, 11:14, 11:15, 11:16, 11:17, 11:18, 11:19, 11:20, 11:21, 11:22............

I am so glad not a single thing will be going on in the world this weekend. Unless there is a bus crash that might happen 25 miles from the Lincoln Tunnel and could have been really, really tragic had people actually been on the bus as opposed to the bus being out of service and on its way to a maintenance facility NJ to be vacuumed. BUT IF IT HAD BEEN IN SERVICE, the thought of a bus crash in a light snowfall in the vicinity of a tunnel across the river and miles from the WTC would be enough to stop all other reporting of the news. Plus it could have been blamed on obese terrorists seeking to protest the new 16oz sharia soda laws in the city enacted because of Obama shot a skeet rifle once.

MSNBC could then assign Alex Witt and Ann Curry to do a snowbound showdown of "Duelling Good Mornings" cage death match interspersed with video vignettes featuring MSNBC personalities reflecting on the reflecting on the integrity of Americans who they hope will watch MSNBC during the apocolyptic 3 inches of snow that will paralyze the region, forcing them to stay home and for survival in the bitter winter, buy products (to be delivered by FedEx) the network sponsors advertise which pay the salaries of the commentators who are describing the moment by moment end of civilization at the hands of Mother Nature and her inhumane delivery of 3 inches of snow.

static2.businessinsider.com_|_1.bp.blogspot.com_|_tools.foxnews.com_|_www.wnd.com

And certainly, Fox News will have their own version of the above events but will somehow invclude Benghazi, Charles Krauthammer pontificating and Steve Doocy getting confused by the teleprompters.

And all this, because NYC is going to get a pansy-arse dusting of snow. Yes, it makes sense now.
 
2013-02-06 08:58:04 PM

TonnageVT: AND IT'S BLOODY CALLED NEMO!! EVERYONE DORI!!


Just keep snowing, just keep snowing...
 
2013-02-06 09:03:02 PM
Subby and many commenters are apparently unaware of the complexities of New England winter storms. This is a classic case of an Alberta Clipper coming in from the Northwest and a storm system moving Northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico, bringing lots of yummy moisture with it. They may or may not collide off the mid-Atlantic coast, over the moderately warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

Or the timing might be off and they don't meet.

But if they do, there's a tendency for rapid intensification as the Arctic air meets the much warmer air, with the Atlantic feeding additional moisture. Such systems often - but not always - tend to accelerate to the Northeast, dropping large amounts of precipitation along the way. This is a "Nor'Easter". If they stall off the coast, you get a 1978 scenario with several feet of snow and dozens of deaths. If they don't, maybe a foot or two and a big headache. Or maybe it'll track 200 miles east and it'll be a couple of inches.

Weather forecasting is not an exact science, and this scenario has more variables than your usual strong cold front triggering tornadoes in the South.
 
2013-02-06 09:06:26 PM
... Walked to the bus stop in Thee Blizzard of '78... 18 inches, frozen...
Past the Creepy Barn at the end of the road (1/2 mi.)... CHECK. & Waited.....................
 Really... A country 1/2 mile, uphill, both ways, in beautiful, frozen, still dark out, scenery......

/ You see, Kiddies, Back in the olden days, hardier snowflakes just waited at the 'end of your roads bus stop' until somebody cared enough to roll down their window and yell "Schools Out Today!" ...
//Then you trekked back home... UPH!LLL.
Pansies.

///Ahhh, Memories... In the corners of your crimes....... ;O}
 
2013-02-06 09:08:36 PM

styckx: In Philly they are calling for 7...


So's your mom.
 
2013-02-06 09:10:35 PM

brantgoose: It makes no difference whether it is 3 inches or 30 inches of snow. New Yorkers will complain exactly the same. Because if they complained less about 3 inches than 30 inches, that would mean that could complain harder.

Which is absurd.


the only one complaining here is you, farkwit.
 
2013-02-06 09:11:07 PM

RockChalkH1N1: So how much money will they want the US to donate this time... you know what I'm talking about


No need for donations, we can just reduce the disproportionate subsidies to the Red states.
 
2013-02-06 09:12:07 PM

GAT_00: That sounds exactly like what a Southern snow storm ends up like. They're so farking fickle around here, you never know what you're going to get.


That's because the temperatures are important not just on the ground but all the way up to the clouds.  It can easily snow above 32 ground if it's cold enough up above for there to not be enough time for a transition and rain below 32 ground if it's warm enough up there to not be able to freeze.  And of course the temperature just underneath the ground is incredibly important when it comes to how long it takes the snow to start sticking.
 
2013-02-06 09:14:28 PM

Sudlow: I don't care which model is more accurate. I am still going to go out and buy bread & milk tomorrow morning.


And eggs. Everyone always forgets the eggs. How the hell else are you going to make French Freedom Toast?
 
2013-02-06 09:23:00 PM
Have you noticed that the weather is only important in the news if it hits NY?

The weather hits from west to east but the rest of us can go to hell.
 
2013-02-06 09:23:28 PM

AndreMA: Subby and many commenters are apparently unaware of the complexities of New England winter storms. This is a classic case of an Alberta Clipper coming in from the Northwest and a storm system moving Northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico, bringing lots of yummy moisture with it. They may or may not collide off the mid-Atlantic coast, over the moderately warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

Or the timing might be off and they don't meet.


Yup. A few hours upstate, in Binghamton, the way it was explained to me, there are three different weather systems that routinely meet over the valley, and on a typical day, weather forecasters basically roll a D6 to predict which one or two will win and push the remaining one or two out.

Once you have to throw in factors like temperature changing it to snow, I'm assuming they use one of these:

1.bp.blogspot.com
 
2013-02-06 09:45:12 PM
I've seen models that show Boston getting three to four *feet* of snow. I, personally, would drop everything and go party there, but my wife doesn't like that idea. We're supposed to get about a foot ourselves, up in the Hudson Valley, and I need to take my son down to the hospital on Friday. This will be interesting.
 
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