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(Gawker)   NYC will get either 3 or 30 inches of snow this weekend. EVERYBODY MAYBE PANIC   (gawker.com) divider line 135
    More: Scary, Hurricane Sandy, weather model, snow  
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8368 clicks; posted to Main » on 06 Feb 2013 at 6:45 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-02-06 06:24:01 PM
Yes, another weather forecast for NYC in which the world will either end or nothing what so ever will occur.  Good job weather forecasting.
 
2013-02-06 06:41:54 PM
Bawhaha
 
2013-02-06 06:46:18 PM
These years, I would expect the latter.
 
2013-02-06 06:47:59 PM

Ennuipoet: Yes, another weather forecast for NYC in which the world will either end or nothing what so ever will occur.  Good job weather forecasting.


I've noticed a tendency towards predictions that increase ratings.  Last year, here in MD, there were several "moderate snowfalls" predicted up to the night before that didn't result in a single flake of snow (or any precipitation).

But I bet the stores sold a lot of toilet paper and white bread.
 
2013-02-06 06:48:12 PM
yea i was watching the noon news on cbs and the weather guy goes "ok, so we've got two computer models for you to look at. here's the first one, and it has 19 inches of snow in nyc. here's a second model - it has half an inch. we'll know more soon!"
 
2013-02-06 06:49:45 PM
In before global warming thread meltdown!

Woohoo!

GAT_00: These years, I would expect the latter.


It's sort of a toss up. Most of the last couple years there has been a pronounced lack of snow. But at the same time... this has the potential to wreak havoc on the Boston-NYC-Philly-DC region which has been a fun thing for the weather to do recently....
 
2013-02-06 06:50:07 PM
They've got a bridge for sale there, too.
 
2013-02-06 06:50:18 PM
Sounds like a class 3 killstorm.
 
2013-02-06 06:50:20 PM
prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
 
gja [TotalFark]
2013-02-06 06:52:14 PM
Meh. I stopped listening to the weather fools long ago. They have zero cred left.
 
2013-02-06 06:52:27 PM
everybody?? i live in Florida
 
2013-02-06 06:53:17 PM
I'm more interested in the "pregnant sexts" story on that same page.
 
2013-02-06 06:53:44 PM
Precious little snowflakes put in harms way by snowflakes.  Oh whatever shall we do???
 
2013-02-06 06:54:29 PM

Ennuipoet: Good job weather forecasting.


We're still 4 days away and when you're hanging out near 32, one measly degree makes a gargantuan difference in terms of what precipitation you get.
 
2013-02-06 06:55:47 PM
A few years ago wasn't it predicted that we would have the largest hurricane season EVAR and we had none?
I vaguely remember that, anyway.
 
2013-02-06 06:56:01 PM
Lava would be better...
 
2013-02-06 06:57:50 PM
I'd turn on the Weather Channel but I would get some lifeguard or Coast Guard show. They also don't give my local forecast anymore.
 
2013-02-06 06:58:59 PM
I don't care which model is more accurate. I am still going to go out and buy bread & milk tomorrow morning.
 
2013-02-06 06:59:03 PM
OMG Sandy 2!!!
 
2013-02-06 06:59:45 PM

zvoidx: OMG Sandy 2!!!


PRECIPITATION BOOGALOO!!
 
2013-02-06 07:01:19 PM

12349876: Ennuipoet: Good job weather forecasting.

We're still 4 days away and when you're hanging out near 32, one measly degree makes a gargantuan difference in terms of what precipitation you get.

shebloggedbynight.com
 
2013-02-06 07:02:39 PM
I still remember 1967 in Chicago...

"It will be partly cloudy tomorrow with a very slight chance of snow so I'm just going to put one flake up on the map" -John Coleman

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_Blizzard_of_1967
 
2013-02-06 07:03:47 PM
When I lived in Brooklyn, Central Park got 24 in of snow.  I thought that was cool as shiat since I grew up in FL and hadn't seen anything like that before.  This was circa 2006.

/it wasnt that great once it started to melt.
 
2013-02-06 07:04:05 PM
No classes after 3pm Friday; therefore don't give a damn either way.
 
2013-02-06 07:04:17 PM

C18H27NO3: A few years ago wasn't it predicted that we would have the largest hurricane season EVAR...


Since probability doesn't work that way, no, probably not.
 
2013-02-06 07:04:23 PM
AWARE, ALERT, AWARE.
 
2013-02-06 07:07:04 PM
So how much money will they want the US to donate this time... you know what I'm talking about
 
2013-02-06 07:08:12 PM

uncleacid: I'd turn on the Weather Channel but I would get some lifeguard or Coast Guard show. They also don't give my local forecast anymore.


Yeah, weather on the 8's seems to be gone for the most part.  First world problems I guess.
 
2013-02-06 07:09:22 PM

Sudlow: I don't care which model is more accurate. I am still going to go out and buy bread & milk tomorrow morning.


Same here.  I'm all out of both.  Well-stocked on TP and eggs, however.  Could use more booze - could always use more booze.

In other words, this is a weekend to stay home.  If only all storms were so polite as to strike on weekends.
 
2013-02-06 07:13:23 PM

Vegan Meat Popsicle: In before global warming thread meltdown!

Woohoo!

GAT_00: These years, I would expect the latter.

It's sort of a toss up. Most of the last couple years there has been a pronounced lack of snow. But at the same time... this has the potential to wreak havoc on the Boston-NYC-Philly-DC region which has been a fun thing for the weather to do recently....


That's what I mean: when a snow event happens, it tends to be mammoth since there's higher potential moisture.
 
2013-02-06 07:14:30 PM
calitreview.com
 
2013-02-06 07:15:29 PM

Jon iz teh kewl: everybody?? i live in Florida


Then you especially should panic
 
2013-02-06 07:15:31 PM
there is literally nothing that can happen in new york city that i would give a shiat about.
 
2013-02-06 07:16:33 PM
Funny, that is what I always tell the ladies.  You are going to get somewhere between 3 and 30 inches, but if you want 30, I am going to need to put it in 10 times.
 
2013-02-06 07:17:31 PM
And I will be in Cuba. My schadenfreude is tingling.
 
2013-02-06 07:20:28 PM
How's that any different than Internet dating?  Dudes claim it's a twelver, but by the time you see it up close, it's a 4 1/2 incher at best.
 
2013-02-06 07:22:01 PM
Where I am they're forecasting around 12". The only thing hubby wants to stock up on is beer and gas for the snowmobile. I was thinking about hitting the indoor water park for the weekend.
 
2013-02-06 07:27:58 PM

The Angry Hand of God: You are going to get somewhere between 3 and 30 inches


upload.wikimedia.org

"I'm only taking out what I need."
 
2013-02-06 07:28:13 PM

Smelly Pirate Hooker: I'm more interested in the "pregnant sexts" story on that same page.

img.gawkerassets.com
photo.ma-bimbo.com
 
2013-02-06 07:28:36 PM
In Philly they are calling for 7...
 
2013-02-06 07:29:42 PM
Yeah, I discovered this myself because I have work across the river from NYC on Saturday morning. I'm trying to determine whether I should cancel.  Looks like I'm just going to have to wait a bit more before I make the call.
 
2013-02-06 07:30:04 PM
We're expected to get ~6" in the north burbs of Chicago. The way the last two winters have gone, it's like storm of the century. This winter so far has been nothing. Followed by 1" here, 3" of rain on frozen solid ground there, then 4" of snow scattered across 5 days; now this 6" inches so maybe we might get a strong finish yet.
 
2013-02-06 07:30:09 PM
Just saw this on the weather channel or something.  The range was from 2" to 30". The thing is that those weren't outliers. The other 6 or so models hit spots fairly evenly spaced in that range. So... my take away from that us that they don't have a f'ing clue what's going to happen. Better off rolling dice.
 
2013-02-06 07:31:30 PM
I've never heard of the RPM model and I'm a meteorologist. Google doesn't bring much up - a commercial WRF variant? Eh?

Go with ECMWF - their data assimilation kicks our ass and it's embarrassing because our models are probably better than theirs. But, garbage in, garbage out.

I'm in Michigan where we're supposed to get 10 inches. Will be the first significant snow of the year - haven't had more than 2 inches all goddammed year. XC skis are at the ready.
 
2013-02-06 07:33:32 PM
I'm prepared either way. My panic is in a constant state of readiness
 
2013-02-06 07:34:01 PM
I know I just told you that New York will get snow...

And this is crazy...

Here's a random number, panic maybe...
 
2013-02-06 07:35:16 PM
I'd laugh if it was just someone who can't remember the difference between 2" and 2' of snow.
 
2013-02-06 07:40:46 PM
Is this the Comcast model of forecasting?
 
mjg
2013-02-06 07:40:57 PM
Wanna see -51F?

I'm a NYer but back in Canada.
 
2013-02-06 07:42:28 PM
But but but GLOBAL WARMING!
 
2013-02-06 07:42:47 PM
http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:10001.5.99999

Not too worried- these guys are usually pretty good.
 
2013-02-06 07:43:54 PM
I told my first wife she would be getting either 3 or 30 inches, depending on how good at teh maths she was.
 
2013-02-06 07:44:57 PM
So if there's only 15", do they semi-panic? How does that work?
 
2013-02-06 07:46:13 PM
The inlaws are supposed to drive in from PA to take the boy for the week so I am most certainly not getting a kick out of this ambiguity
 
2013-02-06 07:46:49 PM

Gyrfalcon: So if there's only 15", do they semi-panic? How does that work?


that's not semi-panic. That's semi-erect for some of us, dollface.

/no idea what I'm going for here
 
2013-02-06 07:48:48 PM

GF named my left testicle thundercles: there is literally nothing that can happen in new york city that i would give a shiat about.


Your bank account may give a shiat. Granted, someone with such a worldly view probably isn't worth much.
 
2013-02-06 07:49:18 PM

born_yesterday: But I bet the stores sold a lot of toilet paper and white bread.


I'm in CT and I stopped at the store on my way home from work tonight (please note: it is WEDNESDAY) and couldn't park. People were already stocking up.

I mean, yeah, my office is doing the "let it snow!" dance so we can work from home Friday and not have to go in, but what the hell are people stocking up for? Even if we get 30", it will be inconvenient for a day or two (unless we lose power... CL&P sucks at that)... and in the former case, there's no need to stock up and in the latter, all of us with electric stoves can't cook the food we have before it spoils, anyway, so it's all pointless.  *shrug*   It's the NorthEast. It snows here.

That doesn't mean I won't buy some extra wine, but still....
 
2013-02-06 07:50:21 PM
As mentioned by someone earlier, but worth mentioning again, here's the problem:
climate.cod.edu

RED: 1000-700mb = 2840m     CYAN: 850-700mb = 1540m     YELLOW: 1000-850mb = 1300m     PURPLE: 700-500mb = 2560mGREEN: 850-500mb = 4100m     WHITE: 1000-500mb = 5400m     BLUE: 850mb 0°C Isotherm


Each of those lines is a different metric which can be reliably used to predict the rain-snow line.  Here, at the height of the storm, NYC is right on the edge.  A small shift could make the difference between almost all rain and almost all snow.

And this is just one model.
 
2013-02-06 07:50:55 PM

Igor Jakovsky: When I lived in Brooklyn, Central Park got 24 in of snow.  I thought that was cool as shiat since I grew up in FL and hadn't seen anything like that before.  This was circa 2006.

/it wasnt that great once it started to melt.


We were there after Christmas a couple years ago when they supposedly got 8" of snow in the subway stations. The g/f and I went to a show, crossed Times Square on our way out, and ended up having a midnight snowball fight in the middle of Broadway, surrounded by abandoned police cars and taxis. Visibility was pretty limited, but it felt like there were about 20 people in all of Times Square.

That was some extremely surreal I Am Legend shiat that night.

// Walked back to the hotel in the worst of it. Stopped off for hot cocktails halfway. Still have the picture the bartender took of us encased in ice somewhere.
 
2013-02-06 07:53:13 PM
www.thesundaytimes.co.uk
 
2013-02-06 07:54:42 PM

RectalFury: GF named my left testicle thundercles: there is literally nothing that can happen in new york city that i would give a shiat about.

Your bank account may give a shiat. Granted, someone with such a worldly view probably isn't worth much.


city envy. Widespread in the US and especially on Fark.
Seriously guys, Columbus, OH is just as good
 
2013-02-06 07:55:27 PM

Jon iz teh kewl: everybody?? i live in Florida


you should DEFINITELY panic.
 
2013-02-06 07:58:03 PM
2.bp.blogspot.com

/A licky boom boom down
 
2013-02-06 07:58:09 PM

wxboy: As mentioned by someone earlier, but worth mentioning again, here's the problem:
[climate.cod.edu image 800x600]


Interesting... I knew the 1000-500 mb thickness figure by heart, but not the other freezing lines. Thanks.

/Think it was this morning's 12Z NAM run that was giving over 4 feet to Boston
//Which, in my experience, may actually be over the heads of many of its adult inhabitants
 
2013-02-06 07:59:49 PM

clowncar on fire: [www.thesundaytimes.co.uk image 580x386]


    Please God!  Don't let me die on West 31st Street!!!
 
2013-02-06 08:03:06 PM
Ha ha. I'll be Cambodia on Saturday. 95 degrees!
 
2013-02-06 08:03:54 PM

Badgers: [2.bp.blogspot.com image 850x833]

/A licky boom boom down


Dammit.  I was almost to the end of the thread and thought I'd be the one.  *tips hat*
 
2013-02-06 08:05:16 PM

freewill: We were there after Christmas a couple years ago when they supposedly got 8" of snow in the subway stations. The g/f and I went to a show, crossed Times Square on our way out, and ended up having a midnight snowball fight in the middle of Broadway, surrounded by abandoned police cars and taxis. Visibility was pretty limited, but it felt like there were about 20 people in all of Times Square.

That was some extremely surreal I Am Legend shiat that night.


I
25.media.tumblr.com
 
2013-02-06 08:05:44 PM

skullkrusher: Gyrfalcon: So if there's only 15", do they semi-panic? How does that work?

that's not semi-panic. That's semi-erect for some of us, dollface.

/no idea what I'm going for here


Going for a sibling for the Count, is what your wife will be thinking.
 
2013-02-06 08:13:05 PM

Gyrfalcon: skullkrusher: Gyrfalcon: So if there's only 15", do they semi-panic? How does that work?

that's not semi-panic. That's semi-erect for some of us, dollface.

/no idea what I'm going for here

Going for a sibling for the Count, is what your wife will be thinking.


soon enough, soon enough
 
2013-02-06 08:15:11 PM
Gosh, it's going to be 61 degrees tomorrow in La La land.

A little bit chilly, I admit. I may opt to wear a long sleeve shirt.
 
2013-02-06 08:17:28 PM
Supposed to be 8-14" here in Vermont, almost all of it on Friday afternoon/evening. Oh goody.
 
2013-02-06 08:18:14 PM
What's its name?
 
2013-02-06 08:19:28 PM

clowncar on fire: [www.thesundaytimes.co.uk image 580x386]


EVERYBODY MOVE TO MEXICO!.
 
2013-02-06 08:23:24 PM

SirEattonHogg: Gosh, it's going to be 61 degrees tomorrow in La La land.

A little bit chilly, I admit. I may opt to wear a long sleeve shirt.


And so say all of us, Tap into America!

/Orange County here
//Only going to be 59 here tomorrow
///May dig out my jacket
 
2013-02-06 08:30:31 PM
These people work in offices with no windows. Maybe one of them should go out once in a while to check the weather...
 
2013-02-06 08:30:49 PM

Ennuipoet: Yes, another weather forecast for NYC in which the world will either end or nothing what so ever will occur.  Good job weather forecasting.


Yes, but that last one in October was pretty farking big.
 
2013-02-06 08:31:16 PM
TV weatherman may be the easiest job in the world.
 
2013-02-06 08:39:34 PM
i.imgur.com
 
2013-02-06 08:40:24 PM

bikerbob59: What's its name?


Nemo.
 
2013-02-06 08:40:46 PM
Feel bad about the hurricane Sandy folks.
 
2013-02-06 08:41:54 PM

Jon iz teh kewl: everybody?? i live in Florida


I would prefer to have liquid magma raining from the skies than live in Florida...but to each their own.
 
2013-02-06 08:42:21 PM
What is Nate Silver predicting?
 
2013-02-06 08:46:05 PM

wxboy: As mentioned by someone earlier, but worth mentioning again, here's the problem:
[climate.cod.edu image 800x600]

RED: 1000-700mb = 2840m     CYAN: 850-700mb = 1540m     YELLOW: 1000-850mb = 1300m     PURPLE: 700-500mb = 2560mGREEN: 850-500mb = 4100m     WHITE: 1000-500mb = 5400m     BLUE: 850mb 0°C Isotherm


Each of those lines is a different metric which can be reliably used to predict the rain-snow line.  Here, at the height of the storm, NYC is right on the edge.  A small shift could make the difference between almost all rain and almost all snow.

And this is just one model.


That sounds exactly like what a Southern snow storm ends up like.  They're so farking fickle around here, you never know what you're going to get.
 
2013-02-06 08:46:47 PM

balisane: No classes after 3pm Friday; therefore don't give a damn either way.


This; the only reason I even care to follow it is because I was going to visit my dad for his birthday, but he understands that if there is snow, I'm not driving on 390 unless it's an emergency.
 
2013-02-06 08:50:23 PM
AND IT'S BLOODY CALLED NEMO!! EVERYONE DORI!!
 
2013-02-06 08:50:39 PM
No videogames until you kids finish building my snowman army.
 
2013-02-06 08:51:05 PM
It makes no difference whether it is 3 inches or 30 inches of snow. New Yorkers will complain exactly the same. Because if they complained less about 3 inches than 30 inches, that would mean that could complain harder.

Which is absurd.
 
2013-02-06 08:53:15 PM
And once again, so begins the countdown to the inevitable and never-ending barrage of "New Yorkers Are Resilient" stories for the entire weekend. Reported by, of course - NY journalists.

Film at 11:00, 11:01, 11:02, 11:03, 11:04, 11:05, 11:06, 11:07, 11:08, 11:09, 11:10, 11:11, 11:12, 11:13, 11:14, 11:15, 11:16, 11:17, 11:18, 11:19, 11:20, 11:21, 11:22............

I am so glad not a single thing will be going on in the world this weekend. Unless there is a bus crash that might happen 25 miles from the Lincoln Tunnel and could have been really, really tragic had people actually been on the bus as opposed to the bus being out of service and on its way to a maintenance facility NJ to be vacuumed. BUT IF IT HAD BEEN IN SERVICE, the thought of a bus crash in a light snowfall in the vicinity of a tunnel across the river and miles from the WTC would be enough to stop all other reporting of the news. Plus it could have been blamed on obese terrorists seeking to protest the new 16oz sharia soda laws in the city enacted because of Obama shot a skeet rifle once.

MSNBC could then assign Alex Witt and Ann Curry to do a snowbound showdown of "Duelling Good Mornings" cage death match interspersed with video vignettes featuring MSNBC personalities reflecting on the reflecting on the integrity of Americans who they hope will watch MSNBC during the apocolyptic 3 inches of snow that will paralyze the region, forcing them to stay home and for survival in the bitter winter, buy products (to be delivered by FedEx) the network sponsors advertise which pay the salaries of the commentators who are describing the moment by moment end of civilization at the hands of Mother Nature and her inhumane delivery of 3 inches of snow.

static2.businessinsider.com_|_1.bp.blogspot.com_|_tools.foxnews.com_|_www.wnd.com

And certainly, Fox News will have their own version of the above events but will somehow invclude Benghazi, Charles Krauthammer pontificating and Steve Doocy getting confused by the teleprompters.

And all this, because NYC is going to get a pansy-arse dusting of snow. Yes, it makes sense now.
 
2013-02-06 08:58:04 PM

TonnageVT: AND IT'S BLOODY CALLED NEMO!! EVERYONE DORI!!


Just keep snowing, just keep snowing...
 
2013-02-06 09:03:02 PM
Subby and many commenters are apparently unaware of the complexities of New England winter storms. This is a classic case of an Alberta Clipper coming in from the Northwest and a storm system moving Northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico, bringing lots of yummy moisture with it. They may or may not collide off the mid-Atlantic coast, over the moderately warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

Or the timing might be off and they don't meet.

But if they do, there's a tendency for rapid intensification as the Arctic air meets the much warmer air, with the Atlantic feeding additional moisture. Such systems often - but not always - tend to accelerate to the Northeast, dropping large amounts of precipitation along the way. This is a "Nor'Easter". If they stall off the coast, you get a 1978 scenario with several feet of snow and dozens of deaths. If they don't, maybe a foot or two and a big headache. Or maybe it'll track 200 miles east and it'll be a couple of inches.

Weather forecasting is not an exact science, and this scenario has more variables than your usual strong cold front triggering tornadoes in the South.
 
2013-02-06 09:06:26 PM
... Walked to the bus stop in Thee Blizzard of '78... 18 inches, frozen...
Past the Creepy Barn at the end of the road (1/2 mi.)... CHECK. & Waited.....................
 Really... A country 1/2 mile, uphill, both ways, in beautiful, frozen, still dark out, scenery......

/ You see, Kiddies, Back in the olden days, hardier snowflakes just waited at the 'end of your roads bus stop' until somebody cared enough to roll down their window and yell "Schools Out Today!" ...
//Then you trekked back home... UPH!LLL.
Pansies.

///Ahhh, Memories... In the corners of your crimes....... ;O}
 
2013-02-06 09:08:36 PM

styckx: In Philly they are calling for 7...


So's your mom.
 
2013-02-06 09:10:35 PM

brantgoose: It makes no difference whether it is 3 inches or 30 inches of snow. New Yorkers will complain exactly the same. Because if they complained less about 3 inches than 30 inches, that would mean that could complain harder.

Which is absurd.


the only one complaining here is you, farkwit.
 
2013-02-06 09:11:07 PM

RockChalkH1N1: So how much money will they want the US to donate this time... you know what I'm talking about


No need for donations, we can just reduce the disproportionate subsidies to the Red states.
 
2013-02-06 09:12:07 PM

GAT_00: That sounds exactly like what a Southern snow storm ends up like. They're so farking fickle around here, you never know what you're going to get.


That's because the temperatures are important not just on the ground but all the way up to the clouds.  It can easily snow above 32 ground if it's cold enough up above for there to not be enough time for a transition and rain below 32 ground if it's warm enough up there to not be able to freeze.  And of course the temperature just underneath the ground is incredibly important when it comes to how long it takes the snow to start sticking.
 
2013-02-06 09:14:28 PM

Sudlow: I don't care which model is more accurate. I am still going to go out and buy bread & milk tomorrow morning.


And eggs. Everyone always forgets the eggs. How the hell else are you going to make French Freedom Toast?
 
2013-02-06 09:23:00 PM
Have you noticed that the weather is only important in the news if it hits NY?

The weather hits from west to east but the rest of us can go to hell.
 
2013-02-06 09:23:28 PM

AndreMA: Subby and many commenters are apparently unaware of the complexities of New England winter storms. This is a classic case of an Alberta Clipper coming in from the Northwest and a storm system moving Northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico, bringing lots of yummy moisture with it. They may or may not collide off the mid-Atlantic coast, over the moderately warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

Or the timing might be off and they don't meet.


Yup. A few hours upstate, in Binghamton, the way it was explained to me, there are three different weather systems that routinely meet over the valley, and on a typical day, weather forecasters basically roll a D6 to predict which one or two will win and push the remaining one or two out.

Once you have to throw in factors like temperature changing it to snow, I'm assuming they use one of these:

1.bp.blogspot.com
 
2013-02-06 09:45:12 PM
I've seen models that show Boston getting three to four *feet* of snow. I, personally, would drop everything and go party there, but my wife doesn't like that idea. We're supposed to get about a foot ourselves, up in the Hudson Valley, and I need to take my son down to the hospital on Friday. This will be interesting.
 
2013-02-06 09:49:11 PM

12349876: GAT_00: That sounds exactly like what a Southern snow storm ends up like. They're so farking fickle around here, you never know what you're going to get.

That's because the temperatures are important not just on the ground but all the way up to the clouds.  It can easily snow above 32 ground if it's cold enough up above for there to not be enough time for a transition and rain below 32 ground if it's warm enough up there to not be able to freeze.  And of course the temperature just underneath the ground is incredibly important when it comes to how long it takes the snow to start sticking.


I have a background in meteorology, you don't have to explain it to me.  I fully understand the difficulties in Southern snow storms.  Also, I live them.
 
2013-02-06 09:49:58 PM
SNOWFLAKERS: Remember... Eggs and coffee & feather down/wool to keep warm...
AND IF YOUR ELECTRIC GOES OUT = TAKE THE FOOD OUT OF THE FRIDGE & PUT IT OUTSIDE/in the garage/porch... DUH.  :O)

/ ... Dogs have more fat/carbs, Cats are OK in a pinch....
//Our pre-schoolers train in this shiat... "
///Suck it Up, BoysnGirls~ it's Free SnoCones for the industrious B!atches"...
 
2013-02-06 09:50:06 PM

GAT_00: 12349876: GAT_00: That sounds exactly like what a Southern snow storm ends up like. They're so farking fickle around here, you never know what you're going to get.

That's because the temperatures are important not just on the ground but all the way up to the clouds.  It can easily snow above 32 ground if it's cold enough up above for there to not be enough time for a transition and rain below 32 ground if it's warm enough up there to not be able to freeze.  And of course the temperature just underneath the ground is incredibly important when it comes to how long it takes the snow to start sticking.

I have a background in meteorology, you don't have to explain it to me.  I fully understand the difficulties in Southern snow storms.  Also, I live them.


Sorry, that wasn't meant to sound condescending, and it kind of does.
 
2013-02-06 09:54:01 PM
I've got snowshoes in my trunk and the bar is 1/4 mile away, if anything I'm over-prepared.
 
2013-02-06 10:09:43 PM
Running the car AC in February is awesome.

Oh, and still hasn't been a hurricane for me here since peple started freaking out about them. Actually never has been one since I've been alive.

Snow in NY? Always got shorted on school days on the Island.
 
2013-02-06 10:10:49 PM
If the forwcasters are wrong, do they go to prison? Or is that only in Italy?
 
2013-02-06 10:20:37 PM

gja: Meh. I stopped listening to the weather fools long ago. They have zero cred left.


<img src="http://o3.aolcdn.com/dims-shared/dims3/PATCH/resize/273x203/http ://hss -prod.hss.aol.com/hss/storage/patch/da4605ab3cd0fb2dbfb5811208f227a9  ">

Don't anger the Skilling.
 
2013-02-06 10:26:22 PM

italie: gja: Meh. I stopped listening to the weather fools long ago. They have zero cred left.

<img src="http://o3.aolcdn.com/dims-shared/dims3/PATCH/resize/273x203/http ://hss -prod.hss.aol.com/hss/storage/patch/da4605ab3cd0fb2dbfb5811208f227a9  ">

Don't anger the Skilling.


The fark? Hotlink resistant urls? Will wonders never cease....
 
2013-02-06 10:26:38 PM

wxboy: As mentioned by someone earlier, but worth mentioning again, here's the problem:
[climate.cod.edu image 800x600]

RED: 1000-700mb = 2840m     CYAN: 850-700mb = 1540m     YELLOW: 1000-850mb = 1300m     PURPLE: 700-500mb = 2560mGREEN: 850-500mb = 4100m     WHITE: 1000-500mb = 5400m     BLUE: 850mb 0°C Isotherm


Each of those lines is a different metric which can be reliably used to predict the rain-snow line.  Here, at the height of the storm, NYC is right on the edge.  A small shift could make the difference between almost all rain and almost all snow.

And this is just one model.


GODZIRRA!!!!
 
2013-02-06 10:33:45 PM
Friends of ours in Boston posted this pic of the latest weather forecast:

sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net

/hooboy
 
2013-02-06 10:34:04 PM
I guess I'll make sure to gas up the snowblower to make sure that we get 0" of snow and it's all sleet instead.
 
2013-02-06 10:39:28 PM

Breaker Moran: wxboy: As mentioned by someone earlier, but worth mentioning again, here's the problem:
[climate.cod.edu image 800x600]

RED: 1000-700mb = 2840m     CYAN: 850-700mb = 1540m     YELLOW: 1000-850mb = 1300m     PURPLE: 700-500mb = 2560mGREEN: 850-500mb = 4100m     WHITE: 1000-500mb = 5400m     BLUE: 850mb 0°C Isotherm


Each of those lines is a different metric which can be reliably used to predict the rain-snow line.  Here, at the height of the storm, NYC is right on the edge.  A small shift could make the difference between almost all rain and almost all snow.

And this is just one model.

GODZIRRA!!!!


No, just a T-rex.

sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net
 
2013-02-06 11:23:24 PM
Mine is 30 inches....

// measured from the ground up....
 
2013-02-07 12:29:57 AM
Now is the time to buy the milk, eggs and bread you'll need to survive the post-stormpocalyptic dystopia... BEFORE THEY'RE GONE FOREVER.

Protip:  Snow shovels are only good for one use and have a shelf life of three days, so buy often and just before every snow storm.
 
2013-02-07 01:24:19 AM

KellyKellyKelly: bikerbob59: What's its name?

Nemo.


Someone get me a Nautilus.
 
kab
2013-02-07 01:46:12 AM
Driving to Boston for a wedding Friday morning, so I'm getting a spin slide kick out of this....
 
2013-02-07 02:14:25 AM
So we can look forward to this:

3.bp.blogspot.com
 
2013-02-07 04:13:14 AM

kab: Driving to Boston for a wedding Friday morning, so I'm getting a spin slide kick out of this....


Leave Thursday night if you can, I'd suggest...

Even if I were in the major snowfall prediction area, I wouldn't be that worried because all my utilities WORK, but I'm kind of disgusted by people who think/say those affected by Sandy are just 'whining'. It's been below freezing for most of the winter in the north east. Anyone who is without power or heat/rebuilding is actually suffering. No, I'm not among them, but this is a really shiatty time of year to be rebuilding/renovating your home and/or be without major necessary utilities. That storm had some pretty bad timing, all told.

If you've never lived in a region that gets a real winter, shut up. Just shut up. Cold kills just as easily as heat, and it's a lot sneakier - hypothermia makes you sleepy first, then it kills you.
 
2013-02-07 04:43:28 AM

wxboy: As mentioned by someone earlier, but worth mentioning again, here's the problem:
[climate.cod.edu image 800x600]

RED: 1000-700mb = 2840m     CYAN: 850-700mb = 1540m     YELLOW: 1000-850mb = 1300m     PURPLE: 700-500mb = 2560mGREEN: 850-500mb = 4100m     WHITE: 1000-500mb = 5400m     BLUE: 850mb 0°C Isotherm


Each of those lines is a different metric which can be reliably used to predict the rain-snow line.  Here, at the height of the storm, NYC is right on the edge.  A small shift could make the difference between almost all rain and almost all snow.

And this is just one model.


I see the problem. They're using mousepaint to forecast the weather.
 
2013-02-07 05:33:31 AM
Woke up about an hour ago and we were under a Winter Storm Watch throughout CT; just checked again and NWS has switched it to a Blizzard Watch.

/here we go
 
2013-02-07 07:21:10 AM

b0rscht: I've never heard of the RPM model and I'm a meteorologist. Google doesn't bring much up - a commercial WRF variant? Eh?

Go with ECMWF - their data assimilation kicks our ass and it's embarrassing because our models are probably better than theirs. But, garbage in, garbage out.

I'm in Michigan where we're supposed to get 10 inches. Will be the first significant snow of the year - haven't had more than 2 inches all goddammed year. XC skis are at the ready.


Go further north. Most snow we have had in years. (northern lower peninsula)
 
2013-02-07 07:34:24 AM
Stay cozy, my northeastern friends!
 
2013-02-07 08:25:50 AM
It's new york, who the heck cares

Shouldn't they be busy banning large sodas/fried food or something?
It's been 12 years, is the building at ground zero finished yet?
Fark you, Yorkies
 
2013-02-07 09:39:17 AM

born_yesterday: Ennuipoet: Yes, another weather forecast for NYC in which the world will either end or nothing what so ever will occur.  Good job weather forecasting.

I've noticed a tendency towards predictions that increase ratings.  Last year, here in MD, there were several "moderate snowfalls" predicted up to the night before that didn't result in a single flake of snow (or any precipitation).

But I bet the stores sold a lot of toilet paper and white bread.



I've been noticing a lot of that in Durham, NC recently. They'll warn us and warn us, then some poor novice newscaster has to go on location in the morning. They'll be gesturing towards a lightly dusted median with completely clear roads trying to maintain their professionalism.
 
2013-02-07 10:06:58 AM
Everybody pay attention!

New York and Boston are about to, maybe, possibly, experience something that happens elsewhere and people just deal with it, but it's New York and Boston this time,.. and they need your attention.
 
2013-02-07 10:30:17 AM
Thirty inches or as they say in Wisconsin, "A Dusting!"
 
2013-02-07 10:53:45 AM
Ugh. This non-forecast is pissing me off. I'm trying to make plans, and depending on which channel I tune in to, I'm getting an inch or two feet or something in between. Maybe some ice. Fark.

Make up your minds, people!

/CNY
 
2013-02-07 10:56:13 AM

AndreMA: This is a "Nor'Easter". If they stall off the coast, you get a 1978 scenario with several feet of snow and dozens of deaths.


Ah, I remember the Blizzard of 78 fondly. We had to dig tunnels to get out of the house, or climb out the window. Good times, good times.

Best school break EVAR!
 
2013-02-07 11:02:26 AM
eeek.  Flying in on Saturday, I hope it's 1/2"

//cause my vacation should not be  inconvenienced!
 
2013-02-07 11:08:43 AM

namegoeshere: I remember the Blizzard of 78 fondly. We had to dig tunnels to get out of the house, or climb out the window. Good times, good times.


My mother's car was stuck for almost a month when some snow melted then froze causing her car to be stuck in ice in '78. There was a better blizzard in '83 where we had drifts over a story high (made for an awesome prefabricated snow fort).
 
2013-02-07 11:45:38 AM

namegoeshere: AndreMA: This is a "Nor'Easter". If they stall off the coast, you get a 1978 scenario with several feet of snow and dozens of deaths.

Ah, I remember the Blizzard of 78 fondly. We had to dig tunnels to get out of the house, or climb out the window. Good times, good times.

Best school break EVAR!


Whereabouts were you, if I may ask? I was in Foxborough and measured 38"-42" (much drifting; those seemed to be the most honest of a number of measurements).

We had a long driveway and the snowblower died after making one pass down to the street. A little electric Toro fighting way out of its league. The somewhat busy street had only skiers and snowmobiles on it for several days (even after the driving ban was lifted). We were lucky to not lose power; the house was an all-electric relic from the 1960s with electric ceiling-radiant heat. Horrendously expensive even then...
 
2013-02-07 11:48:04 AM

That's funny, the local weather man is calling for "sun sun sun"



www.anomalousmaterial.com
 
2013-02-07 12:02:09 PM

SpectroBoy: That's funny, the local weather man is calling for "sun sun sun"

[www.anomalousmaterial.com image 450x252]


Well that'll only last until his Daddy takes the T-Bird away.
 
2013-02-07 12:38:53 PM

AndreMA: namegoeshere: AndreMA: This is a "Nor'Easter". If they stall off the coast, you get a 1978 scenario with several feet of snow and dozens of deaths.

Ah, I remember the Blizzard of 78 fondly. We had to dig tunnels to get out of the house, or climb out the window. Good times, good times.

Best school break EVAR!

Whereabouts were you, if I may ask? I was in Foxborough and measured 38"-42" (much drifting; those seemed to be the most honest of a number of measurements).

We had a long driveway and the snowblower died after making one pass down to the street. A little electric Toro fighting way out of its league. The somewhat busy street had only skiers and snowmobiles on it for several days (even after the driving ban was lifted). We were lucky to not lose power; the house was an all-electric relic from the 1960s with electric ceiling-radiant heat. Horrendously expensive even then...


I have sinced moved, but was outside of Worcester at that time. I was 8. My clearest memory is us wondering what the heck to do with the poor dog (fat beagle with short legs) who had her little legs crossed and was trying sooooooo hard to be a good doggie and not piddle in the house. We finally let her out the window. The snow had a crust, but not enough of one to support her... girth...so she broke through but only partway. She was stuck on top of the crust with her little doggie feet poked through, beagle-swimming and going nowhere. The look on her face was priceless - big beagle eyes... "Uh, guyse? Guyse?? Little halp pleez? Pleeze??" We were laughing so hard... So we had to dig an underground, er, undersnow bathroom for the doggie, and then spent a week trying to train her to poop in her bathroom fort and not in our playfort.

Ah, fun. I hope we get one of those while my kids are still young enough to enjoy it.
 
2013-02-07 12:50:38 PM

namegoeshere: AndreMA: namegoeshere: AndreMA: This is a "Nor'Easter". If they stall off the coast, you get a 1978 scenario with several feet of snow and dozens of deaths.

Ah, I remember the Blizzard of 78 fondly. We had to dig tunnels to get out of the house, or climb out the window. Good times, good times.

Best school break EVAR!

Whereabouts were you, if I may ask? I was in Foxborough and measured 38"-42" (much drifting; those seemed to be the most honest of a number of measurements).

We had a long driveway and the snowblower died after making one pass down to the street. A little electric Toro fighting way out of its league. The somewhat busy street had only skiers and snowmobiles on it for several days (even after the driving ban was lifted). We were lucky to not lose power; the house was an all-electric relic from the 1960s with electric ceiling-radiant heat. Horrendously expensive even then...

I have sinced moved, but was outside of Worcester at that time. I was 8. My clearest memory is us wondering what the heck to do with the poor dog (fat beagle with short legs) who had her little legs crossed and was trying sooooooo hard to be a good doggie and not piddle in the house. We finally let her out the window. The snow had a crust, but not enough of one to support her... girth...so she broke through but only partway. She was stuck on top of the crust with her little doggie feet poked through, beagle-swimming and going nowhere. The look on her face was priceless - big beagle eyes... "Uh, guyse? Guyse?? Little halp pleez? Pleeze??" We were laughing so hard... So we had to dig an underground, er, undersnow bathroom for the doggie, and then spent a week trying to train her to poop in her bathroom fort and not in our playfort.

Ah, fun. I hope we get one of those while my kids are still young enough to enjoy it.


Poor Beagle :(

I've since moved to Southern Maine and reside in / own / manage a small apartment building. One of my tenants has a Basset Hound that's going to have similar problems. I'm letting them use an otherwise emergency-only exit that emerges closer to the dogs usual "dumping ground" and hope to keep that at least marginally passable through this storm.

They have a teenager who will shovel for money which is good, too.
 
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