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(Marketwatch)   It's time to buy Apple   (marketwatch.com ) divider line 65
    More: Obvious, net sales, Bilderberger, LVMH, liquid assets, Scooby, total liabilities, GMO, Apple products  
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2919 clicks; posted to Business » on 28 Jan 2013 at 12:16 PM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



65 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2013-01-28 10:36:43 AM  
My waiter recomended buying Apple four months ago.  It's kind of like what Joseph Kennedy said about when the shoe-shine boy is giving you stock tips it's time to get out of stocks.
 
2013-01-28 10:36:44 AM  
Translation: I bought Apple stock this morning because I think it hit a low point and I want people to drive it up so I can turn a profit on it.
 
2013-01-28 10:48:16 AM  
Why? Did they take "Summers's Eve" off the market and I need an alternative?
 
2013-01-28 11:06:08 AM  
and the stock is dirt cheap by almost any measure.

Except dollars.
 
2013-01-28 11:37:09 AM  
Why? Are they planning a reunion?

i212.photobucket.com
 
2013-01-28 12:04:32 PM  
No.
 
2013-01-28 12:23:10 PM  
Be sure to tune in next time for "How to catch a falling knife".
 
2013-01-28 12:40:57 PM  

GAT_00: Translation: I bought Apple stock this morning because I think it hit a low point and I want people to drive it up so I can turn a profit on it.


Good move. I went long 150 shares last Thursday.
 
2013-01-28 12:51:01 PM  
Apple has been resting on the iphone and ipad success, recently they've flooded their own market by releasing pretty much the same devices over and over. Sooner or later even the die hards are going to get annoyed at this as a money grab.
 
2013-01-28 12:52:28 PM  

Stone Meadow: GAT_00: Translation: I bought Apple stock this morning because I think it hit a low point and I want people to drive it up so I can turn a profit on it.

Good move. I went long 150 shares last Thursday.


You bought @ 458 and you think you did well. Alrighty then.
 
2013-01-28 12:54:39 PM  
Where's the requisite, MarketWatch link saying, "Don't buy Apple stock?"
 
2013-01-28 01:19:14 PM  
The question is not about whether or not Apple is profitable. They are extremely profitable. The question is whether or not they can get profit growth. If you want the real-world danger scenario, just look at msft. Msft has been an extremely successful company the last decade by any measure. Very profitable company. But the stock - that's what we are discussing here, stock prices - has been range bound for a decade.

Oh, and all you guys talking about analyst expectations and the press.... go buy an index fund. You do not understand this game. At all.
 
2013-01-28 01:25:01 PM  

JohnBigBootay: The question is not about whether or not Apple is profitable. They are extremely profitable. The question is whether or not they can get profit growth. If you want the real-world danger scenario, just look at msft. Msft has been an extremely successful company the last decade by any measure. Very profitable company. But the stock - that's what we are discussing here, stock prices - has been range bound for a decade.

Oh, and all you guys talking about analyst expectations and the press.... go buy an index fund. You do not understand this game. At all.


People buy MSFT for the dividend. God help you if you're expecting actual equity growth from it.
 
2013-01-28 01:25:21 PM  

Stone Meadow: GAT_00: Translation: I bought Apple stock this morning because I think it hit a low point and I want people to drive it up so I can turn a profit on it.

Good move. I went long 150 shares last Thursday.


You had $70,000 just sitting around to dump on Apple stock?
 
2013-01-28 01:32:02 PM  

Shazam999: JohnBigBootay: The question is not about whether or not Apple is profitable. They are extremely profitable. The question is whether or not they can get profit growth. If you want the real-world danger scenario, just look at msft. Msft has been an extremely successful company the last decade by any measure. Very profitable company. But the stock - that's what we are discussing here, stock prices - has been range bound for a decade.

Oh, and all you guys talking about analyst expectations and the press.... go buy an index fund. You do not understand this game. At all.

People buy MSFT for the dividend. God help you if you're expecting actual equity growth from it.


Right. It's become an IBM/GE dinosaur. That's often what happens to the mega cap when they transition from stocks to essentially utilities - when they're lucky. It's not unlikely that happens to apple one day. And it's a legitimate question to ask if we are starting to enter that period now. I think they have some steam left but I'll eat my hat if they're a growth stock 3-5 years from now. They haven't cleaned up after the party yet but the crowd is definitely dwindling. Aapl is not the pace to look if you want an outperform growth stock in the next couple of years.
 
2013-01-28 01:34:35 PM  

verbaltoxin: Where's the requisite, MarketWatch link saying, "Don't buy Apple stock?"


Indeed. This is a breech of Fark etiquette.

Either post 2 contradicting MarketWatch headlines verbatim, or post the opposite of what the article says to do.
 
2013-01-28 01:38:44 PM  

Shazam999: People buy MSFT for the dividend. God help you if you're expecting actual equity growth from it.


Oh, and for my money Cook saw this coming. That's why he broke with Jobs and added the dividend a few months ago after not having one forever. You can bet your sweet ass the guys managing institutional money took that as a warning sign and here we are.
 
2013-01-28 01:39:27 PM  
Guess it's time to sell my Netflix too...
 
2013-01-28 01:47:47 PM  

GAT_00: Stone Meadow: GAT_00: Translation: I bought Apple stock this morning because I think it hit a low point and I want people to drive it up so I can turn a profit on it.

Good move. I went long 150 shares last Thursday.

You had $70,000 just sitting around to dump on Apple stock?


I had sold FB last week at $31 after buying in the mid 20's on its rebound from 16. I would have bought more AAPL, but my other funds were already committed. I tend to take good sized stakes in big companies that I think have have been beaten down too far, then hold them for weeks to months waiting for a recovery. I don't short, buy on margin or day-trade, and using mutual funds is too pedestrian.
 
2013-01-28 01:51:35 PM  

Shazam999: Stone Meadow: GAT_00: Translation: I bought Apple stock this morning because I think it hit a low point and I want people to drive it up so I can turn a profit on it.

Good move. I went long 150 shares last Thursday.

You bought @ 458 and you think you did well. Alrighty then.


We'll see. In the meantime keep earning 1.2% on your money market fund.
 
2013-01-28 01:55:14 PM  

Stone Meadow: Shazam999: Stone Meadow: GAT_00: Translation: I bought Apple stock this morning because I think it hit a low point and I want people to drive it up so I can turn a profit on it.

Good move. I went long 150 shares last Thursday.

You bought @ 458 and you think you did well. Alrighty then.

We'll see. In the meantime keep earning 1.2% on your money market fund.


I had a stock that I bought @ $0.90 go to $2.74.

So yeah, I'm not impressed by you.

Also, who the fark buys odd lots. What the hell is wrong with you.
 
2013-01-28 02:03:27 PM  

Shazam999: So yeah, I'm not impressed by you.

Also, who the fark buys odd lots. What the hell is wrong with you.


It's okay you aren't impressed, but I still think GAT_00 made a smart buy. And I bought an odd lot because that's how much available cash I had to invest. Besides, who are you to biatch about it?
 
2013-01-28 02:13:37 PM  

Stone Meadow: Shazam999: So yeah, I'm not impressed by you.

Also, who the fark buys odd lots. What the hell is wrong with you.

It's okay you aren't impressed, but I still think GAT_00 made a smart buy. And I bought an odd lot because that's how much available cash I had to invest. Besides, who are you to biatch about it?


I didn't buy a goddamn thing.  I don't have anything close to that much money around.
 
2013-01-28 02:16:41 PM  

GAT_00: I didn't buy a goddamn thing.  I don't have anything close to that much money around.


Yeah...my bad. I misread your comments.
 
2013-01-28 02:19:25 PM  
well I bought visa a day or so after ipo.. its doing ok..
 
2013-01-28 02:23:57 PM  
Tags: Obvious, net sales, Bilderberger, LVMH, liquid assets, Scooby, total liabilities, GMO, Apple products

Rawl Rut?

gunshyassassin.com
 
2013-01-28 02:33:47 PM  

Stone Meadow: GAT_00: I didn't buy a goddamn thing.  I don't have anything close to that much money around.

Yeah...my bad. I misread your comments.


I wish I had the money to do that.  I wouldn't put it in Apple, but if I had $70,000 to invest I'd be quite happy.
 
2013-01-28 02:33:48 PM  

Stone Meadow: Shazam999: Stone Meadow: GAT_00: Translation: I bought Apple stock this morning because I think it hit a low point and I want people to drive it up so I can turn a profit on it.

Good move. I went long 150 shares last Thursday.

You bought @ 458 and you think you did well. Alrighty then.

We'll see. In the meantime keep earning 1.2% on your money market fund.


Hah, exactly... if you want to make money in the stock market, AAPL is one of those stocks that can be predictable enough for investors to repeatedly take advantage of it (provided they have the $ to do so).
 
2013-01-28 02:39:16 PM  

cyberspacedout: AAPL is one of those stocks that can be predictable enough for investors to repeatedly take advantage of it


Ok, I'll say it. That's hilarious. I suspect you predicted this 35% haircut they've received lately? Care to predict what's next for AAPL? I'll take 30 day, 90 day, and one year predictions. Thanks.
 
2013-01-28 03:03:39 PM  

GAT_00: Translation: I bought Apple stock this morning because I think it hit a low point and I want people to drive it up so I can turn a profit on it.


Holy crap, GAT_00 slaps us upside the head with some brutal honest common sense. Well done old bean!
 
2013-01-28 03:09:09 PM  

JohnBigBootay: cyberspacedout: AAPL is one of those stocks that can be predictable enough for investors to repeatedly take advantage of it

Ok, I'll say it. That's hilarious. I suspect you predicted this 35% haircut they've received lately? Care to predict what's next for AAPL? I'll take 30 day, 90 day, and one year predictions. Thanks.


I'm not cyber, but I think your request is ridiculous. I *think* AAPL is worth something north of $500 based on trailing earnings and other fundamentals. Enough so to go long after the recent 'haircut', but I'm not in the tarot card reading business.

Besides, to a large degree IMO the recent volatility of AAPL is the product of such prediction making shenanigans. I'm prepared to sit on my shares for months if needed, but I refuse to be panicked into selling on a minor dip. I didn't call the bottom of the "correction"...so what? I won't hit the summit when I sell, either. In neither case am I going to agonize over it.
 
2013-01-28 03:13:27 PM  

JohnBigBootay: cyberspacedout: AAPL is one of those stocks that can be predictable enough for investors to repeatedly take advantage of it

Ok, I'll say it. That's hilarious. I suspect you predicted this 35% haircut they've received lately? Care to predict what's next for AAPL? I'll take 30 day, 90 day, and one year predictions. Thanks.


Kinda missing the point. The point in that AAPL has big swings, and can be relied on to have big swings, so buying low/selling high is easy. Just check on it every so often, and you might not hit the exact low/high point, but the swing will be big enough so as not to matter.


/Wish I had had more money when I bought AAPL at $26 (right before iPod Mini release)
 
2013-01-28 03:15:47 PM  

impaler: verbaltoxin: Where's the requisite, MarketWatch link saying, "Don't buy Apple stock?"

Indeed. This is a breech of Fark etiquette.

Either post 2 contradicting MarketWatch headlines verbatim, or post the opposite of what the article says to do.


The "time to sell Apple" headline is just a few down the list, from CNBC.
 
2013-01-28 03:54:32 PM  

Stone Meadow: I'm not cyber, but I think your request is ridiculous.


No more so than saying the stock performance of the most successful company in recent history, which has dropped 35% of late, is "predictable".
 
2013-01-28 03:59:30 PM  

JohnBigBootay: Stone Meadow: I'm not cyber, but I think your request is ridiculous.

No more so than saying the stock performance of the most successful company in recent history, which has dropped 35% of late, is "predictable".


I'll be kind and just suggest that perhaps you're taking that word out of context.
 
2013-01-28 04:23:15 PM  
I love Apple handhelds.  But the 4S, 5 and iPad Mini are what comes out with Jobs gone.

Apple has historically done well with Jobs kicking butt and taking names.  Without him, they will coast until they are completely obsolete.  I feel that Jobs was the only person taking the company seriously.

His meticulous, even cruel at times nature meant that the end product would be good.

Apple is on it's death bed.  Jobs may have made a plan for the company, but there is no guarantee anybody will follow it.  Android has many, many problems.  But each one getting solved over time.  Each iteration doing something different.  Being hacked constantly.  Those hacks becoming part of the whole.

It's the same reason Apple has always lost except in niche circumstances.  There are more open alternatives.  Jobs was a miracle worker and without him, Apple is a sack of moldy tangerines.
 
2013-01-28 04:33:03 PM  

Stone Meadow: I'll be kind and just suggest that perhaps you're taking that word out of context.


Not really. For all the carping about the analysts driving this stock down there were any number of analysts with a strong buy on apple at $600. Fact is none of us know where the bottom or the top or the middle is on this stock and the market will do what it will do. Sure, you can trade swings in any stock... unless you buy near a top. Trading is risky business.
 
2013-01-28 05:38:27 PM  

JohnBigBootay: Stone Meadow: I'll be kind and just suggest that perhaps you're taking that word out of context.

Not really. For all the carping about the analysts driving this stock down there were any number of analysts with a strong buy on apple at $600. Fact is none of us know where the bottom or the top or the middle is on this stock and the market will do what it will do. Sure, you can trade swings in any stock... unless you buy near a top. Trading is risky business.


Exactly, but cyber has a good point, too, which is that AAPL's behavior in the past year has followed a rough cycle of share price increasing over several months followed by profit taking. IMO the stock is now very cheap and a strong buy, which is why I'm long.
 
2013-01-28 05:46:18 PM  

Stone Meadow: which is why I'm long.


Whoa, man. Settle. It's just a stock price. And see a doctor if it lasts for more than four hours.
 
2013-01-28 05:56:56 PM  

GreenAdder: Stone Meadow: which is why I'm long.

Whoa, man. Settle. It's just a stock price. And see a doctor if it lasts for more than four hours.


Dude, at my age I'm like Jeff Bridges in 'Wild Bill'..."It's so rare I gotta use it when I got it!"

/or whatever he said to Jane as he started bonking her in the bar scene
 
2013-01-28 06:05:46 PM  

GAT_00: You had $70,000 just sitting around to dump on Apple stock?


It's not that uncommon for people who have been investing for long enough. I had over $50,000 in cash sitting in my IRA at one point back in 2011 just from Ford stock I sold off.

/ wish I'd kept it and rode the dividends instead though
 
2013-01-28 06:07:21 PM  

Stone Meadow: Exactly, but cyber has a good point, too, which is that AAPL's behavior in the past year has followed a rough cycle of share price increasing over several months followed by profit taking. IMO the stock is now very cheap and a strong buy, which is why I'm long.


Well, good luck. I own the stock myself in several different mutual funds. AAPL is so huge that everyone who owns an s&p 500 index fund is long apple.
 
2013-01-28 06:47:12 PM  

Vegan Meat Popsicle: It's not that uncommon for people who have been investing for long enough. I had over $50,000 in cash sitting in my IRA at one point back in 2011 just from Ford stock I sold off.


Hey hey...I bought a block each of GM and Ford back in their darkest days...GM at about two-something and Ford at four-something. Sold the GM at 55-cents and called myself lucky. Sold the Ford at $14.
 
2013-01-28 06:49:48 PM  

Stone Meadow: Hey hey...I bought a block each of GM and Ford back in their darkest days...GM at about two-something and Ford at four-something. Sold the GM at 55-cents and called myself lucky. Sold the Ford at $14.


I would laugh about the GM... had I not tried a similar gambit with washington mutual at a buck. sometimes it costs you $1,000 to learn a hard lesson!
 
2013-01-28 08:38:42 PM  

Shazam999: People buy MSFT for the dividend. God help you if you're expecting actual equity growth from it.


No they don't.

Paying $28 for a stock that returns about $0.20/qtr isn't exactly a good investment. Less than a 3% return on an equity position.

Compare that is Verizon which pays $0.50/qtr and currently costs $43. Almost a 5% return.

If MSFT wants to be a dividend company - they will need to pay a better one. They are only returning half to a third of earnings to the owners on average each quarter.

As to Apple - aren't they sitting on $150B in cash right now? And their dividend works out annually to somewhere between 5-10% of earnings. The rest I assume to be in a huge pile with Scrooge McDuck swimming around in it.
 
2013-01-28 08:46:57 PM  

madgonad: Less than a 3% return on an equity position.


Still a hell of a lot better than buying a treasury bond.... even with today's run-up...
 
2013-01-28 09:23:51 PM  

Stone Meadow: JohnBigBootay: Stone Meadow: Exactly, but cyber has a good point, too, which is that AAPL's behavior in the past year has followed a rough cycle of share price increasing over several months followed by profit taking. IMO the stock is now very cheap and a strong buy, which is why I'm long.


This, and that it does tend to bounce back after said profit taking. I'm not saying that I can predict where it's going to be in 30 days (or when the last few months' slide will end), but the share price has tended to jerk back at least slightly after earnings are announced and there's a crazy spike in one direction or another.
 
2013-01-28 10:16:36 PM  

madgonad: As to Apple - aren't they sitting on $150B in cash right now? And their dividend works out annually to somewhere between 5-10% of earnings. The rest I assume to be in a huge pile with Scrooge McDuck swimming around in it.


Yep. As of last September they were sitting on $156B in cash. (Link) By now it's even higher and the stock is way down, which means its cash is worth 20%+ of the share price, and the company is banking billions more in quarterly operating profits.

One interesting factor to me is that Apple is not a conglomerate, buying everything in sight that even vaguely looks like it will fit into their expansion plans. (I'm looking at you, MS, GOOG and Oracle.) That means the company is going to have to do something with all that extra cash. Sure, buy-backs and dividends...but what else? That's one of the sixty-four thousand dollar questions to me.
 
2013-01-28 10:31:51 PM  
All the same arguments for google a few years ago. They still make tons of money, yada yada. Look at the stock price trajectory of google from IPO to $700/share, and compare that to what it has done since? Did google stop making money?

Now Apple is become Microsoft. All Apple stuff was neat, now people really don't care all that much about upgrading their iPhone27 into iPhone28.

Stock price trajectory is a function of product development trajectory. A few years ago, Apple was to take over the world. Now the question is, will Apple ever deliver a new product class.

The shine is off Apple, and I don't see much hope for them. Unless they try vertical integration and buy content or distribution companies, or else come out with something that finally marries TV to internet in a way that nobody will buy another TV or monitor...then they will have to just make their $120B in relative obscurity.

Another thing is that stock price is set by the market, and in some cases inexplicably. I know a lot of Amazon shorts who simply cannot believe it hasn't tanked yet. Compare AMZN on any metric to AAPL, and tell me why APPLE isn't at least 10x the stock price of AMZN.

Multiple expansion is nebulous and somewhat stock-dependent, so there is no such thing as "prediction" distinct from guessing. The easy money in Apple stock has already been made.
 
2013-01-28 10:35:53 PM  

Stone Meadow: That means the company is going to have to do something with all that extra cash. Sure, buy-backs and dividends...but what else? That's one of the sixty-four thousand dollar questions to me.


How about just banking it until you can do something really big, like buy Comcast and Disney, and basically negotiate a take-under of NetFlix? Content-Distribution-Hardward trifecta.
 
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