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(CNBC)   It's time to sell Apple   (cnbc.com) divider line 22
    More: Obvious, wealth management, market capitalization  
•       •       •

1301 clicks; posted to Business » on 28 Jan 2013 at 11:28 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



22 Comments   (+0 »)
   
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2013-01-28 11:31:39 AM  
FTFA "The revenue number is dismal as far as what the expectations were," said Jeff Sica president and chief investment officer of SICA Wealth Management. But he added that it's an "incredible number" on its own and Apple has "fallen victim to the curse of high expectations."

High expectations pushed by analysts who seem completely clueless how to measure Apple as a business.
 
2013-01-28 11:37:30 AM  
For the short-term, the time to sell it was before the close of trading last Wednesday.
 
2013-01-28 11:38:28 AM  
I don't understand. We went through this whole thing last week, and this article is from last week. Why the green?
 
2013-01-28 11:39:01 AM  

midigod: I don't understand. We went through this whole thing last week, and this article is from last week. Why the green?


No fresh Apple headlines yet.
 
2013-01-28 11:39:20 AM  
Oh shut up.

With Apple shares at $500 they are still over 10% annual EPS. That is a great number. Are they shifting from growth to cash-cow - probably, but they are still a good buy at $500. And hopefully that whole "first trillion dollar company" BS will go away now.
 
2013-01-28 11:43:25 AM  
Apple needs to make something people can fark.
 
2013-01-28 11:50:36 AM  
In before BullshiatBearMS.

I got a Nexus 7 Friday. It's not iPad Mini...which is good and bad. Lots more customizing...but also more configuring. If I were to get my 65 year old Mom a tablet, it would be an Apple. Me, I like to tinker, side load etc.
 
2013-01-28 11:53:33 AM  
I'd be buying Apple right now.

Microsoft has never been so weak. Windows 8 is a disaster.

Now is the time to strike!
 
2013-01-28 11:57:10 AM  

doczoidberg: I'd be buying Apple right now.

Microsoft has never been so weak. Windows 8 is a disaster.

Now is the time to strike!


Steve Jobs is dead... Jim..
 
2013-01-28 12:01:49 PM  
Only Wall Street could be disappointed with record revenues and a $13 billion profit.

If you expect the world most valuable company to keep growing at an exponential rate, then maybe the problem is you.
 
kab
2013-01-28 12:16:14 PM  
"So, how was revenue?"
"Not bad. $54,000,000,000"
"BUT ANALYSTS SAID YOU'D HIT $54,000,000,030.62! WHY ARE YOU SUCH A FAILURE AS A COMPANY?"
 
2013-01-28 12:20:35 PM  

doczoidberg: I'd be buying Apple right now.

Microsoft has never been so weak. Windows 8 is a disaster.

Now is the time to strike!


Except everything's on a downward trend. Their go-to the iPhone isn't even the number one phone anymore.
 
2013-01-28 12:41:15 PM  

GameSprocket: Only Wall Street could be disappointed with record revenues and a $13 billion profit.

If you expect the world most valuable company to keep growing at an exponential rate, then maybe the problem is you.


Not everything at apple is growing - quite a number of their revenue streams are rapidly shrinking. I think one of the main problems is that their computer division is quickly descending into nothingness. A 22% drop in year-over-year x-mas quarterly Mac sales is a tough one to spin. Especially after the Mac division suffering a flat "back-to-school" quarter just before.

They shouldn't have called it a "Post-PC era" It should be called the "Post-Mac Era."

Also, Apple expanded its retail outlets by 10% in 2012, yet they saw a marginal 3%-4% increase in total revenue - signaling a notable slowdown in *per-outlet* retail sales.
 
2013-01-28 01:24:06 PM  
Yep... all Apple does not is keep polishing the same OS... and they will never update the UI for fear that the almighty Steve Jobs will come back and haunt them.

I gave Apple 4 years max after the death of Steve Jobs and I am sticking to it... it will go down as one of the biggest corporate failures of all time.
 
2013-01-28 01:29:56 PM  

MrSteve007: GameSprocket: Only Wall Street could be disappointed with record revenues and a $13 billion profit.

If you expect the world most valuable company to keep growing at an exponential rate, then maybe the problem is you.

Not everything at apple is growing - quite a number of their revenue streams are rapidly shrinking. I think one of the main problems is that their computer division is quickly descending into nothingness. A 22% drop in year-over-year x-mas quarterly Mac sales is a tough one to spin. Especially after the Mac division suffering a flat "back-to-school" quarter just before.

They shouldn't have called it a "Post-PC era" It should be called the "Post-Mac Era."

Also, Apple expanded its retail outlets by 10% in 2012, yet they saw a marginal 3%-4% increase in total revenue - signaling a notable slowdown in *per-outlet* retail sales.


Yeah, Mac sales is a real issue...
cdn.macrumors.com

Figures are not yet available for Q1 213, but still looking good for the latest quarter available. Q1 will be weird because the iMac was not available until very late in the quarter.


So, I guess there is a problem with the Apple stores ...
Let's just focus on Apple's retail stores, though. For the calendar year 2012, Apple Store sales were $19.15 billion - that's bigger than JC Penney and Kohl's, both of which have over 1,1100 stores to just 400 for Apple, and represents a 40.7% 3-year compound annual growth rate.

Sales per square foot for the year declined 12% to $5,176, but the figure is still more than 60% higher than its closest rival (Tiffany & Co.) and by far the highest of any American retailer. Though partly due to slower sales growth - only 16.8% in 2012 following growth of 40.4% and 69.7% in the prior 2 years - it also reflects the fact that average store size has increased to over 10,500 square feet from from 7,500 square feet 3 years ago.
Link

I wish I had Apple's problems.
If I was an investor and had to worry about anything it would be that Apple seems to be dropping the ball a lot lately (imap, iMac availability, introducing a new connector and then not having adapters available, ...).
 
2013-01-28 01:44:54 PM  

GameSprocket: I wish I had Apple's problems.


Me too. Great company that makes a ton of money. But you can't be an outperforming growth stock forever. Markets mature. It doesn't take a genius to read between the lines - 70% growth, 40% growth, and now 16%. Apple is a reaalllllly big ship. But it's pretty unmistakable that what that really huge ship is doing is slowing down at a rapid pace. I'm not saying sell it. I'm not saying don't own it. I'm saying don't buy it if you're thinking you want a 30% return next year. They'll bounce around the next couple years but unless they come out with a flying car it could be a really really long time to start thinking about 650-700 again.
 
2013-01-28 02:38:46 PM  
Uh... buy high, sell low? Thanks for the advice, CNBC. Don't know what we'd do without you.

Also, this was linked on the Apple article from Marketwatch today: Apple analysts are of no value to investors
 
2013-01-28 03:15:00 PM  

midigod: I don't understand. We went through this whole thing last week, and this article is from last week. Why the green?


Any anti-Apple headline is pretty much guaranteed to go green
 
2013-01-28 03:33:25 PM  

gingerjet: FTFA "The revenue number is dismal as far as what the expectations were," said Jeff Sica president and chief investment officer of SICA Wealth Management. But he added that it's an "incredible number" on its own and Apple has "fallen victim to the curse of high expectations."

High expectations pushed by analysts who seem completely clueless how to measure Apple as a business.


How do you measure Apple as a business?
 
2013-01-28 03:57:11 PM  

Dokushin: How do you measure Apple as a business?


As a business? I'd say great business. obviously. As a stock? Well, at $600 I'd have rated it a strong sell. If it were at $350, I'd go strong buy. At $450'ish where it is now? I'd call it a hold. But only because they added a dividend recently.
 
2013-01-28 04:29:53 PM  
Apple did very good with Jobs.  When they fired him, they did terribly (1985). When they rehired him, they did great and became what they are today.  His lobster-like tenacity is what kepts the company afloat.

Without him they are doomed to mediocrity.  I have no doubt they will do fine for another 5 years.  Keeping their stuff status quo or slightly behind.  But the glory days are over.

I imagine Steve Jobs walking around with a whip just hitting people not working hard enough.
 
2013-01-28 08:03:36 PM  
18% rev growth and 10 P/E multiple with a dividend...this stock is a hold/sell?!

I loved it at $400, it's an insult at $450. Their analysts don't know preferred stock from livestock...
 
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