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(NYPost)   Frostbite on their trigger fingers? NYC goes nine days without a murder during cold snap   (nypost.com ) divider line
    More: Spiffy, trigger fingers, Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, Hurricane Sandy, Jack Frost  
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1935 clicks; posted to Main » on 26 Jan 2013 at 12:43 PM (3 years ago)   |   Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-01-26 05:01:24 PM  
Meh, New York has been starting to get uppity in the last few years it's no wonder murder is down. Wake me when Chicago, Detroit or the suburbs around D.C. can go that long without killing each other.
 
2013-01-26 05:09:12 PM  

4seasons85!: gibbon1: skinink: I'm surprised that NYC's murder rate is lower than Baltimore's murder rate even though Baltimore is the smaller city.

Bunch of reasons, crime rates are dropping everywhere, but especially in bigger cities. I also think part of it is big cities are getting to be expensive places to live, that tends to push more marginal people out over time. Then there is the leaded gasoline theory.

What exactly is this leaded gasoline theory? Ive been hearing it mentioned several times. Care to explain?


From Mother Jones (pops):

That tip took Nevin in a different direction. The biggest source of lead in the postwar era, it turns out, wasn't paint. It was leaded gasoline. And if you chart the rise and fall of atmospheric lead caused by the rise and fall of leaded gasoline consumption, you get a pretty simple upside-down U: Lead emissions from tailpipes rose steadily from the early '40s through the early '70s, nearly quadrupling over that period. Then, as unleaded gasoline began to replace leaded gasoline, emissions plummeted.

That tip took Nevin in a different direction. The biggest source of lead in the postwar era, it turns out, wasn't paint. It was leaded gasoline. And if you chart the rise and fall of atmospheric lead caused by the rise and fall of leaded gasoline consumption, you get a pretty simple upside-down U: Lead emissions from tailpipes rose steadily from the early '40s through the early '70s, nearly quadrupling over that period. Then, as unleaded gasoline began to replace leaded gasoline, emissions plummeted.


Basically, lead in gasoline led to lead in the air, which led to lower IQs and higher crime.
 
2013-01-26 05:10:24 PM  
Er, didn't mean to quote the same paragraph twice there. Should have been this:

So Nevin dove in further, digging up detailed data on lead emissions and crime rates to see if the similarity of the curves was as good as it seemed. It turned out to be even better: In a 2000 paper (PDF) he concluded that if you add a lag time of 23 years, lead emissions from automobiles explain 90 percent of the variation in violent crime in America. Toddlers who ingested high levels of lead in the '40s and '50s really were more likely to become violent criminals in the '60s, '70s, and '80s.

And with that we have our molecule: tetraethyl lead, the gasoline additive invented by General Motors in the 1920s to prevent knocking and pinging in high-performance engines. As auto sales boomed after World War II, and drivers in powerful new cars increasingly asked service station attendants to "fill 'er up with ethyl," they were unwittingly creating a crime wave two decades later.
 
2013-01-26 05:14:40 PM  

4seasons85!: What exactly is this leaded gasoline theory? Ive been hearing it mentioned several times. Care to explain?


It's pretty simple. Chronic Lead poisoning causes frontal lobe damage in children.. Because of leaded gasoline children the US and other countries had elevated levels of lead in their blood. And also due to leaded paint in substandard housing, children were also poisoned. Lead levels were higher in inner cities with lots of traffic, lower in suburbs, and lowest in rural areas. Wide spread introduction of leaded gasoline was followed by rising crime and murder rates, which a twenty year lag. Crime went up the most in the areas where kids lead levels were highest, inner cities.

In the 1970's we reduced and then eliminated lead in gasoline and made efforts to clean up lead paint. As a result kids lead levels fell dramatically. And twenty years later crime rates began to fall dramatically. The most in inner cities and urban area's.

Simple: Leaded gasoline knocked a couple of IQ points of the post war generation. Young people today weren't poisoned and thus are a bit smarted and have better impulse control.
 
2013-01-26 05:57:23 PM  
It's too cold to kill now, they'll make up for it this summer when it's too hot.
 
2013-01-26 06:01:13 PM  

Grave_Girl: Er, didn't mean to quote the same paragraph twice there. Should have been this:

So Nevin dove in further, digging up detailed data on lead emissions and crime rates to see if the similarity of the curves was as good as it seemed. It turned out to be even better: In a 2000 paper (PDF) he concluded that if you add a lag time of 23 years, lead emissions from automobiles explain 90 percent of the variation in violent crime in America. Toddlers who ingested high levels of lead in the '40s and '50s really were more likely to become violent criminals in the '60s, '70s, and '80s.

And with that we have our molecule: tetraethyl lead, the gasoline additive invented by General Motors in the 1920s to prevent knocking and pinging in high-performance engines. As auto sales boomed after World War II, and drivers in powerful new cars increasingly asked service station attendants to "fill 'er up with ethyl," they were unwittingly creating a crime wave two decades later.


Thanks!
 
2013-01-26 06:03:04 PM  

gibbon1: 4seasons85!: What exactly is this leaded gasoline theory? Ive been hearing it mentioned several times. Care to explain?

It's pretty simple. Chronic Lead poisoning causes frontal lobe damage in children.. Because of leaded gasoline children the US and other countries had elevated levels of lead in their blood. And also due to leaded paint in substandard housing, children were also poisoned. Lead levels were higher in inner cities with lots of traffic, lower in suburbs, and lowest in rural areas. Wide spread introduction of leaded gasoline was followed by rising crime and murder rates, which a twenty year lag. Crime went up the most in the areas where kids lead levels were highest, inner cities.

In the 1970's we reduced and then eliminated lead in gasoline and made efforts to clean up lead paint. As a result kids lead levels fell dramatically. And twenty years later crime rates began to fall dramatically. The most in inner cities and urban area's.

Simple: Leaded gasoline knocked a couple of IQ points of the post war generation. Young people today weren't poisoned and thus are a bit smarted and have better impulse control.


Thanks for your comment too. It's fascinating and I hope we look into it more. I'm curious to see what further research shows.
 
2013-01-26 09:16:47 PM  

mikemoto: This doesn't seem to work for Chicago.


Cite? It may slow them, but not stop them.
 
2013-01-26 09:19:30 PM  
 
2013-01-26 09:34:54 PM  

moothemagiccow: mikemoto: This doesn't seem to work for Chicago.

Actually, check this shiat out:
"Authorities said that, although that is a large number of violent crimes for such a short time span, it is not unusual as the weather gets warmer."

and this

The city's murder rate spiked 66 percent in the first quarter of 2012, when temperatures were 30 percent above normal and snowfall was 30 percent below average. Unseasonably mild weather sends more people outdoors, helping to trigger more violence, Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy said in an interview.
/Just seems like common sense
//or correlation/causation


So what you're basically saying is that weather has more effect on their crime rate than anything the mayor's ever done...

/We don't need gun laws, we just need a goat to sacrifice to the Snow God.
 
2013-01-27 03:07:20 AM  
If you read freakonomics, the guy says lower crime rates is correlated to legalized abortion. Basically his theory is that when people were forced to have their unwanted babies, the children grew up in a bad way which made them more likely to be criminals. As soon as people were allowed to have abortions, it meant fewer unwanted children being born who never went through a hard life. There was data showing that people are most criminally active in a certain age range, and that age range lined up perfectly between roe v wade and the drop in per capita crime that started in the 90s. He postulated that the drop in crime was the result of there simply being fewer people who were criminally inclined.
 
2013-01-27 05:25:56 AM  

The Man Who Laughs: If you read freakonomics, the guy says lower crime rates is correlated to legalized abortion.


Its a stretch at best.
Technology also got alot better between the nineties and now, cell phones allow for faster reporting of crimes. The cops haven't exactly been sitting on their asses either, as new systems share information faster and new methods (more strict handling of DV and hate crime cases in particular) improve results. The tazer has cut into a number of cop sponsored shootings and civilian gun sales increased (which obviously means illegal gun ownership increased in ban states). This increases shooting incidents but also reduces other kinds of criminal injuries and assaults. A small number of new (but still rare) shootings doesn't reflect as much as thousands of crimes averted by someone flashing steel.
Not saying abortion didn't play its part, but looking at the whole picture it would be easy to question if it made it into the top five reasons.

That said, We're looking at something entirely different here: A case of weather putting a full stop on criminal activity.
If this happens more often then it can and will be argued that global warming does more to avert crime than gun control or anything else has.

If we take our nicely groomed statisticals and start throwing a few dozen zero-incident days at them, its going to play havoc with any other theory one might have.
 
2013-01-27 09:59:32 AM  

xterraadam: Deep Contact: That's because of the new lower capacity magazine law.

The one that goes into effect next year?


See, it's already working.
 
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