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(Politico)   "Do I think we're going to turn Texas in two years? Probably not. Do I think we can turn Texas in four years? Absolutely, because I think the Republican Party in Texas is going to drive itself off a cliff"   (politico.com) divider line 124
    More: Interesting, Battleground Texas, Democrats, Biden, Texas blues  
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4960 clicks; posted to Politics » on 26 Jan 2013 at 12:44 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-01-26 12:20:52 AM
Yeah, and Republicans thought they might have had a chance in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin this past election cycle. Texas is going blue the day we repeal the 22nd Amendment and re-elect George W Bush
 
2013-01-26 12:29:22 AM
4 years is too optimistic.  But Texas could go blue in 2020, unless the GOP starts doing anything other than treating all Hispanics as illegal immigrants that deserve only to be shot.

It's hard to get a good read though, since Dubya screws up the 2000 and 2004 numbers with the homer advantage, and 2008 was a blowout.  They ought to be about 10 points down assuming only demographic trends continuing in 2020, and that's in a state where no Democrat has campaigned for President in decades.  It's doable.
 
2013-01-26 12:30:05 AM
Our major population centers (Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Austin) are already blue. We just need the common clay of the west to turn the state.
 
2013-01-26 12:35:14 AM
Well, given all the steers and queers, it seems  like a natural move.
 
2013-01-26 12:39:57 AM

simplicimus: Our major population centers (Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Austin) are already blue.


That's a meaningless statement.  As a rule of thumb, cities are blue and rural areas are red, regardless of the state.
 
2013-01-26 12:41:11 AM
In four years, Texas will be burned out crater full of bullet casings.
 
2013-01-26 12:42:40 AM

spman: Texas is going blue the day we repeal the 22nd Amendment and re-elect George W Bush

circa 2024

Pretty much no chance inside four years. 2020 might be a slim chance, but not reliably from the trendlines I've seen.
 
2013-01-26 12:44:41 AM

GAT_00: simplicimus: Our major population centers (Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Austin) are already blue.

That's a meaningless statement.  As a rule of thumb, cities are blue and rural areas are red, regardless of the state.


Well, yeah, but eventually urban population will outnumber rural population.
 
2013-01-26 12:44:52 AM
who was in Austin last week to confer with local Democrats

That's like trying to turn North Carolina with a rousing meeting in Chapel Hill. Way to preach the hell out of the choir boys, I think you converted a few.
 
2013-01-26 12:46:55 AM

Ed Finnerty: In four years, Texas will be burned out crater full of bullet casings.


I'm thinking New Old Mexico inside 10
 
2013-01-26 12:51:00 AM

vossiewulf: who was in Austin last week to confer with local Democrats

That's like trying to turn North Carolina with a rousing meeting in Chapel Hill. Way to preach the hell out of the choir boys, I think you converted a few.


Why anyone thinks Austin is important is beyond me. I've lived in Texas for 20 years, and Austin is just a cleaner version of Baton Rouge.
 
2013-01-26 12:53:02 AM

abb3w: spman: Texas is going blue the day we repeal the 22nd Amendment and re-elect George W Bush circa 2024

Pretty much no chance inside four years. 2020 might be a slim chance, but not reliably from the trendlines I've seen.


The chances of Democrats turning Texas in 2016 or 2020 are very slim indeed, however even having the state become a long-shot swing state is a huge thing, and would force Republicans to play defensively there.
 
2013-01-26 12:53:59 AM
Arizona will be blue in 10 years
 
2013-01-26 12:58:38 AM
Wishful thinking. Texass is incredibly gerrymandered.
 
2013-01-26 01:00:39 AM
upload.wikimedia.org
Almost there!
 
2013-01-26 01:04:22 AM
Ewwww, Texas.

What happened to the secession plan? Do they need some help with that?
 
2013-01-26 01:06:46 AM
If you want to turn Texas blue, you'll either need a shiatload of Sherwin-Williams paint, or an ungodly infusion of brains.
 
2013-01-26 01:07:15 AM

GAT_00: simplicimus: Our major population centers (Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and Austin) are already blue.

That's a meaningless statement.  As a rule of thumb, cities are blue and rural areas are red, regardless of the state.


Meaningless, cuz rural areas are so densely populated.
 
2013-01-26 01:09:10 AM

Nicholas D. Wolfwood: If you want to turn Texas blue, you'll either need a shiatload of Sherwin-Williams paint, or an ungodly infusion of brains.


that's probably key
 
2013-01-26 01:12:07 AM

poe_zlaw: [upload.wikimedia.org image 300x282]
Almost there!


One acre, one vote!

/pretty much the only chance for republicans going forward.
 
2013-01-26 01:12:34 AM

Nicholas D. Wolfwood: If you want to turn Texas blue, you'll either need a shiatload of Sherwin-Williams paint, or an ungodly infusion of brains.

sesos

ftfy
 
2013-01-26 01:15:01 AM
www.motherjones.com
"Try it you f*ckers! I've got the Texas Rangers, and... and the National Guard, and, and... I forget what the third one was..."
 
2013-01-26 01:17:31 AM

ox45tallboy: [www.motherjones.com image 630x415]
"Try it you f*ckers! I've got the Texas Rangers, and... and the National Guard, and, and... I forget what the third one was..."


Your fortress of derpitude, Governor. Your fortress of derpitude.

a57.foxnews.com
 
2013-01-26 01:21:13 AM

Bucky Katt: Wishful thinking. Texass is incredibly gerrymandered.


encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com

encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com
"And educated."
 
2013-01-26 01:21:48 AM

Hollie Maea: poe_zlaw: [upload.wikimedia.org image 300x282]
Almost there!

One acre, one vote!

/pretty much the only chance for republicans going forward.


And it sure sounds like they're trying for that..
 
2013-01-26 01:21:51 AM
i'mokaywiththis.jpg

dig up ann richards and clone her

also, molly ivins

I miss them two

hell, lbj too while you're at it
 
2013-01-26 01:24:11 AM

MisterTweak: Your fortress of derpitude, Governor. Your fortress of derpitude.

a57.foxnews.com


encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com
"Hah, hah! Now was that a party or was that a party?"
 
2013-01-26 01:25:26 AM
Texas is gonna be the "Hitler's Bunker" for the gop.

i.ytimg.com
 
2013-01-26 01:25:44 AM

Omahawg: i'mokaywiththis.jpg

dig up ann richards and clone her

also, molly ivins

I miss them two

hell, lbj too while you're at it


www.nndb.com
 
2013-01-26 01:26:53 AM
The reason there's been a lot of speculation about this is that the primary reason that Texas has leaned GOP is the heavily pro-corporate and fiscally efficient stance of the party. Since the Democrats are more of both of those currently, the only thing keeping the state Red is momentum (mostly gerrymandering-induced), and momentum can run out pretty damned fast in politics when you apply a bit of advertising money.

A lot of the reason we're not slipping blue pretty hard already for at least national offices is really that the Dems haven't even bothered making an offer yet. I mean, the GOP's major achievements in the last couple years have been:

-Screwing the education budget right proper
-Stacking the board of education with people that both left and right agree are farking retarded
-Gerrymandering twice in the space of three years specifically to disenfranchise Austin and parts of Dallas and Houston
-farked over some immigration reforms that were overwhelmingly popular across party lines.

That shiat doesn't exactly help your image even with your own guys.
 
2013-01-26 01:28:27 AM

Ed Finnerty: In four years, Texas will be burned out crater full of bullet casings.


This statement made generated a quality lol from me.
 
2013-01-26 01:29:04 AM

MaudlinMutantMollusk: Ed Finnerty: In four years, Texas will be burned out crater full of bullet casings.

I'm thinking New Old Mexico inside 10


Are we going to sell it back to them, or are they just going to take it?
 
2013-01-26 01:30:55 AM

Hollie Maea: One acre, one vote!


upload.wikimedia.org
"So that means I'll get forty votes? I mean, as soon as my mule shows up, and all..."
 
2013-01-26 01:33:51 AM

Omahawg: i'mokaywiththis.jpg

dig up ann richards and clone her

also, molly ivins

I miss them two

hell, lbj too while you're at it


I happened to visit the LBJ library in Austin a little while back. It was only a week after I had occasion to meet Governor Perry. I found myself quite shaken when I left, partially because of the enormous power Texas once wielded in people like LBJ and Richards, but also because of the drag-pageant buffoonery we've become, proudly backing incompetent sh*t-eaters like W, two-bit thieves like DeLay, and humiliatingly stupid talk of secession, as if our governor and his flea-bitten supporters have completely forgotten that "southern heritage" included a bloody ass-kicking worse than the one handed out by Mexico. I'll skip the creationists, because I don't want my blood pressure going that high.
 
2013-01-26 01:34:31 AM

spman: Yeah, and Republicans thought they might have had a chance in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin this past election cycle. Texas is going blue the day we repeal the 22nd Amendment and re-elect George W Bush


Honestly, if they could've found a charismatic Romney, they would've at least had a chance.

Michigan is weird. Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw combine to be about a 1 million Democratic vote advantage, which counters out the rural vote and then some. So at that point, you're in the suburbs, mostly Oakland County.

The suburbs are:

* Racist. They don't want the criminals coming out of Detroit. The criminals are mostly black. Ergo, all black people are evil (Unless you're upper-middle class without a black accent, which makes you an honorary white.). It doesn't help that there are still a lot of people (including my father) who remember being "forced" out of their homes after the riots (in that the value dropped by half, and the crime rate skyrocketed, so they moved out.)
* Rich. Not filthy rich, but fairly upper middle-class (car companies. A nice family home is about 1.5-2 years pay for a line worker, and a lot of guys own 2 or 3 homes, 1 in the city and a cottage or 2 up north). Definitely above the point where more taxes to pay for more welfare hurts a lot more than it helps.
* More blue collar than the wealth would suggest. (Once again, car companies. The line workers get paid better than the engineers with better pensions). Despite this, it's still a very suit-and-tie environment (It's really hard to explain to my father that yes, I wear a t-shirt to work because I am a Silicon Valley software engineer, and even the VC's don't wear suits), probably because of the auto companies executive culture.
* Slightly pro-union. There's a lot of guys working for the auto companies or at other good union jobs, but there's a lot of guys who hate working with the unions, or have gotten really pissed off at some of the stuff the unions got (It's amazing how many people dislike the jobs bank). This is the state that struck down 2 pro-unions amendments, and then is probably going to kick out Snyder over right to work.
* Socially moderate to an insane degree. Democrats probably have a little more leeway (the then some), but if a Republican plays up fundie social issues, they lose. Same as if a Democrat plays up serious welfare increases, or the gay marriage thing.

Democrats win when the Republican is a fundie, they tack somewhat left of center, and there are no new "corruption in Detroit" stories on the evening news. Support the unions, call out the troops, don't do anything stupid, and they've got a chance.
Republicans win when the Republican is sane, and slightly right of center, there are nightly corruption stories that they can play up, and the other news stories are all about the UAW being overly greedy (Rick Snyder's election was pretty much the perfect storm. Smart, electable, sane candidate against 'corrupt union thug' right after Kwame and the auto collapse.). Don't trash the unions, play up the corruption of Detroit, be racist, but not overtly racist, and they've got a chance. It's just that the national party is owned by the South, who are all fundies.

/It's also a place where the Republicans don't even need gerrymandering to win a majority of Congress. Most of those million votes go into the few districts around Detroit, and the Republicans pick up the rest.
 
2013-01-26 01:36:59 AM

ox45tallboy: Bucky Katt: Wishful thinking. Texass is incredibly gerrymandered.

[encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com image 259x194]

[encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com image 249x140]
"And educated."


My mother ran for Texas State Board of Education in 2010 and 2012 in order to vote against whatever that douchecanoe voted for, but unfortunately she got her ass handed to her both times :(

More info in my profile, if you're interested.
 
2013-01-26 01:37:30 AM
Texas owes the nation for foisting Bush Jr upon us.
 
2013-01-26 01:38:58 AM

ox45tallboy: Hollie Maea: One acre, one vote!

[upload.wikimedia.org image 220x330]
"So that means I'll get forty votes? I mean, as soon as my mule shows up, and all..."


Yeah, but that white man over there who owns half of northern Texas get 5 million votes..
 
2013-01-26 01:40:13 AM

meyerkev: Honestly, if they could've found a charismatic Romney, they would've at least had a chance.


encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com
"I thought that's why we went with Ryan."
 
2013-01-26 01:44:20 AM

Alphax: Yeah, but that white man over there who owns half of northern Texas get 5 million votes..


encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com
"Genius! Why didn't we think of that 20 years ago?"
 
2013-01-26 01:50:59 AM

Nobodyn0se: My mother ran for Texas State Board of Education in 2010 and 2012 in order to vote against whatever that douchecanoe voted for, but unfortunately she got her ass handed to her both times :(


encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com
"You can take that hoity-toity liberal elitism and get the hell out of our state! This is Texas, dammit!"
 
2013-01-26 01:58:50 AM
The Nazis are like the GOP but nicer.
 
2013-01-26 01:58:51 AM
At the center of the effort is Jeremy Bird, formerly the national field director for President Barack Obama's reelection campaign

Fail turtle. What's he done right lately?

Oh...right.
 
2013-01-26 02:05:13 AM

salsashark1: The Nazis are like the GOP but nicer.


encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com
"Vill you please zhtop comparing us to ze G.O.P.? Ve had actual zhientists."
 
2013-01-26 02:07:22 AM

spman: Yeah, and Republicans thought they might have had a chance in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin this past election cycle. Texas is going blue the day we repeal the 22nd Amendment and re-elect George W Bush


You mean the Michigan and Wisconsin that are currently run by Republicans?  It doesn't matter what year you throw out, Texas is never going to turn blue or purple unless the Democrats make a serious play for it, so they might as well start laying the groundwork now.  Howard Dean understood this.
 
2013-01-26 02:08:57 AM

ox45tallboy: salsashark1: The Nazis are like the GOP but nicer.

[encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com image 204x230]
"Vill you please zhtop comparing us to ze G.O.P.? Ve had actual zhientists."


One of the best yet.
 
2013-01-26 02:19:06 AM

poe_zlaw: [upload.wikimedia.org image 300x282]
Almost there!


Considering one blue county is the equivalent of 20 red counties, you're right!
 
2013-01-26 02:23:01 AM

ox45tallboy: salsashark1: The Nazis are like the GOP but nicer.

[encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com image 204x230]
"Vill you please zhtop comparing us to ze G.O.P.? Ve had actual zhientists."


I'll buy the quote, but the pic seems fake. It looks like he's got a black marshmallow under his nose.
 
2013-01-26 02:27:18 AM
Seeing Texas go for Hilary Clinton in 2016 would be surreal and groovy.
 
2013-01-26 02:33:02 AM

Lochsteppe: ox45tallboy: salsashark1: The Nazis are like the GOP but nicer.

[encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com image 204x230]
"Vill you please zhtop comparing us to ze G.O.P.? Ve had actual zhientists."

I'll buy the quote, but the pic seems fake. It looks like he's got a black marshmallow under his nose.


Who draws Hitler mustaches on Hitler, honestly?
 
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