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(CNBC)   Remember when some market analysts thought that AAPL might become the first $1 Trillion company? Yeah, about that   (cnbc.com) divider line 100
    More: Unlikely, marketing strategy  
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3090 clicks; posted to Business » on 23 Jan 2013 at 9:05 PM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-01-23 09:13:28 PM
i2.cdn.turner.com

Miss me yet?
 
2013-01-23 09:16:04 PM
Damn, so Apple earned 54.5 billion instead of the 54.73 billion the analysts expected? Methinks the analysts are the ones creating the problems.
 
2013-01-23 09:17:22 PM

sprgrss: Methinks the analysts are the ones creating the problems.


Analyst expectations and forecasts are the most toxic things in the financial world.
 
2013-01-23 09:21:16 PM

WhyteRaven74: sprgrss: Methinks the analysts are the ones creating the problems.

Analyst expectations and forecasts are the most toxic things in the financial world.


See, that's what I'm saying. You sell 47.8 million of anything bigger than a molecule, there's no way in hell it's "disappointing".
 
2013-01-23 09:26:30 PM
Anal expectations from analysts
 
2013-01-23 09:41:55 PM

jayhawk88: You sell 47.8 million of anything bigger than a molecule, there's no way in hell it's "disappointing".


Plus when you're talking $54 billion, you're talking a number so large that when making future predictions your margin of error is going to be a bit more than $250 million.
 
2013-01-23 09:52:58 PM
They sold only 50 million phones in one quarter?

HAW! HAW! What losers.

/analysts suck
 
2013-01-23 10:27:25 PM

sprgrss: Damn, so Apple earned 54.5 billion instead of the 54.73 billion the analysts expected? Methinks the analysts are the ones creating the problems.


What the fark are the analysts talking about? Evidently investors are smarter than the analysts wrt AAPL...their stock was up $9 today, and it's P/E is still below the Dow 30 average at about 13:1, while Facebook's is at 415:1.

FB fanboyz are saying Facebook is worth 32 times Apple, which actually makes products and profits? Jeez, if FB was priced like Apple their shares would sell below a dollar instead of nearly $31.
 
2013-01-23 10:40:49 PM
Apple Inc reported quarterly revenue that slightly missed Wall Street expectations as sales of its flagship iPhone came in below target, sending its shares down more than 4 percent...

... upon which, everyone promptly bought Apple at its new steal of a price, sending its shares up 2% for the day.


Analysts should get their heads out of their analcysts.
 
2013-01-23 10:43:16 PM

Stone Meadow: sprgrss: Damn, so Apple earned 54.5 billion instead of the 54.73 billion the analysts expected? Methinks the analysts are the ones creating the problems.

What the fark are the analysts talking about? Evidently investors are smarter than the analysts wrt AAPL...their stock was up $9 today, and it's P/E is still below the Dow 30 average at about 13:1, while Facebook's is at 415:1.

FB fanboyz are saying Facebook is worth 32 times Apple, which actually makes products and profits? Jeez, if FB was priced like Apple their shares would sell below a dollar instead of nearly $31.


Psssssst.... you may want to check out the results of today's after hours trading, Mr. Cramer.
 
2013-01-23 10:44:44 PM

Theaetetus: Apple Inc reported quarterly revenue that slightly missed Wall Street expectations as sales of its flagship iPhone came in below target, sending its shares down more than 4 percent...

... upon which, everyone promptly bought Apple at its new steal of a price, sending its shares up 2% for the day.

Analysts should get their heads out of their analcysts.


Pssssssst.... see above comment.
 
2013-01-23 10:46:18 PM

Chelsea Clinton Is Carrot Top's Lost Twin: Theaetetus: Apple Inc reported quarterly revenue that slightly missed Wall Street expectations as sales of its flagship iPhone came in below target, sending its shares down more than 4 percent...

... upon which, everyone promptly bought Apple at its new steal of a price, sending its shares up 2% for the day.

Analysts should get their heads out of their analcysts.

Pssssssst.... see above comment.


Pssssssst.... let's come back in the morning and see if it jumps right back.
 
2013-01-23 10:54:07 PM
Yeah, you guys pretty much nailed it.
 
2013-01-23 10:54:26 PM

Theaetetus:

Pssssssst.... let's come back in the morning and see if it jumps right back.


I hope so. I've got a double calendar sitting up there to the north of AAPL's last trade.
 
2013-01-23 11:19:48 PM

WhyteRaven74: sprgrss: Methinks the analysts are the ones creating the problems.

Analyst expectations and forecasts are the most toxic things in the financial world.


What else is a analyst supposed to do? There's not much point in analyzing something if you aren't going to use that analysis to predict something.

There's not much point in having a stock market without analysts, because otherwise no one would know anything. Those same analysts are the reason my IRAs and 401-Ks go up every year. They're the ones producing the actual information that allow fund managers to make buy/sell decisions.
 
2013-01-23 11:23:16 PM

space1999: There's not much point in having a stock market without analysts, because otherwise no one would know anything. Those same analysts are the reason my IRAs and 401-Ks go up every year. They're the ones producing the actual information that allow fund managers to make buy/sell decisions.


But like most fark'r most of these analysts seem to be completely clueless when it comes to Apple.
 
2013-01-23 11:28:38 PM
I'll do a Cramer, Buy. Buy. Buy. What's that? -- Sell. Forget everything I told you before. Sell. Sell. Sell.
 
2013-01-23 11:42:44 PM

sprgrss: Damn, so Apple earned 54.5 billion instead of the 54.73 billion the analysts expected? Methinks the analysts are the ones creating the problems.


You know how I know you don't know anything about how expectations are set.
 
2013-01-23 11:43:04 PM

sprgrss: Damn, so Apple earned 54.5 billion instead of the 54.73 billion the analysts expected? Methinks the analysts are the ones creating the problems.


they're like the jerks on price is right who bid $1 higher than the next person
 
2013-01-23 11:58:41 PM

Chelsea Clinton Is Carrot Top's Lost Twin: Psssssst.... you may want to check out the results of today's after hours trading, Mr. Cramer.


Point granted...let the blood-letting proceed.

/glad I didn't buy any
 
2013-01-23 11:59:45 PM
One of the most interesting parts of the earnings call is the performance of the Mac division: 4th quarter year-over-year sales of Apple's computers and laptops plummeted 22%, from 5.2 million units to 4.1 million.

At that rate of craptacular sales, expect to see that division shuttered in a year or two. Also of note is that their retail revenue only increased a few percentage points, even though they opened a whole bunch of new stores.

/meanwhile, Microsoft sold at least 60 million copies of Windows 8 over the same time - yet people claim that's a failure.
//AAPL stock has cratered nearly 10% since this afternoon.
 
2013-01-24 12:00:53 AM

You're the jerk... jerk: You know how I know you don't know anything about how expectations are set.


Blind assertions and phony math?

Because AAPL doesn't project sh*t. Hence, all the numbers that either blow away "expectations" or miss them by a fraction.

AAPL plays their cards to their chest. ANALysts are speculating, and they have always been wrong. Always.
 
2013-01-24 12:09:28 AM

Theaetetus: Chelsea Clinton Is Carrot Top's Lost Twin: Theaetetus: Apple Inc reported quarterly revenue that slightly missed Wall Street expectations as sales of its flagship iPhone came in below target, sending its shares down more than 4 percent...

... upon which, everyone promptly bought Apple at its new steal of a price, sending its shares up 2% for the day.

Analysts should get their heads out of their analcysts.

Pssssssst.... see above comment.

Pssssssst.... let's come back in the morning and see if it jumps right back.


It'll bounce a little. Probably. But the losses are justified. Apple is a growth stock and their price was based on street expectations that they failed to meet. There's nothing irrational about the reaction.
 
2013-01-24 12:10:00 AM
And if apple was really worried about this perception aren't they leading the whole overseas money game where they could've brought back enough cash to meet the goals if they felt like it?
 
2013-01-24 12:12:15 AM

WhyteRaven74: sprgrss: Methinks the analysts are the ones creating the problems.

Analyst expectations and forecasts are the most toxic things in the financial world.


99.58% of expectations was a failure???
ROFL
 
2013-01-24 12:12:16 AM

MrSteve007: One of the most interesting parts of the earnings call is the performance of the Mac division: 4th quarter year-over-year sales of Apple's computers and laptops plummeted 22%, from 5.2 million units to 4.1 million.


Considering the new iMacs didn't ship until November and December for the 21 and 27 inch, respectively, it's a bit disingenuous to use the 4th quarter sales figures. It's kinda like using the sales figures from the quarter before Apple released the iPhone 5 to claim that Samsung was trouncing them in market share. But we all know no one would do that...

/meanwhile, Microsoft sold at least 60 million copies of Windows 8 over the same time - yet people claim that's a failure.

Microsoft has said it has sold 60 million Windows 8 licenses so far, putting the new operating system on a trajectory similar to that of Windows 7. But licenses include sales to PC manufacturers as well as upgrades, and are not necessarily a clear gauge of sales to end users.

Between both sets of misleading numbers you're hawking, my guess is that you're an analyst?
 
2013-01-24 12:27:31 AM
Apple said on Wednesday its fiscal first quarter revenue rose to $54.5 billion,

I just wonder how many companies have a market cap larger than Apples quarterly revenue... granted revenue and profit are vastly differing things but damn.
 
2013-01-24 12:35:53 AM

MrSteve007: One of the most interesting parts of the earnings call is the performance of the Mac division: 4th quarter year-over-year sales of Apple's computers and laptops plummeted 22%, from 5.2 million units to 4.1 million.

At that rate of craptacular sales, expect to see that division shuttered in a year or two. Also of note is that their retail revenue only increased a few percentage points, even though they opened a whole bunch of new stores.


And the reason for that?  Apple refreshed the Mac line which didn't start shipping until December and they couldn't meet demand due to supply constraints.  You would know that if you bothered to a) listen to the earnings phone call or b) payed any attention to what Apple released last quarter.

/iPod sales have been falling for years but yet the division hasn't been "shuttered"
 
2013-01-24 12:37:44 AM
I've noticed that the media has been beating on Apple like crazy lately.  It seems like in the last few months it went from "iApple iIs IThe iBest" to "ZOMG!  APPLE IS EVIL!  WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!" Did public sentiment change or did the media decide they could get more revenue this way?

/Android Guy
 
2013-01-24 12:38:21 AM

almandot: And if apple was really worried about this perception aren't they leading the whole overseas money game where they could've brought back enough cash to meet the goals if they felt like it?


So you are saying that the money they make overseas is somewhat super secret and not recorded somewhere ... say ... on an earnings statement?
 
2013-01-24 12:40:51 AM

Theaetetus: Considering the new iMacs didn't ship until November and December for the 21 and 27 inch, respectively, it's a bit disingenuous to use the 4th quarter sales figures.


It's cute you actually believe that. Even though they were taking orders for the product since October, and that one product line would take that much of the sales from Mac Pros, Mac books, MacBook Pros, and Mac minis.

"Our demand was too high, so that's why sales are down!"

Only in Apple's reality distortion field does that kind of bullshiat gain traction.

Theaetetus: Between both sets of misleading numbers you're hawking, my guess is that you're an analyst?


To Microsoft (and shareholders), a sale to a vender putting together PC's or an upgrade sale to an end user are the same. They're sales of licenses, which Microsoft gets paid for. They sell licenses in such bulk to OEM's, that they get purchased in monthly blocks by the millions. Your point? There isn't any argument that PC sales trounce the living daylights out of Macs - year after year.

Or put in another way. More sales of Windows 8 happens every 3 days than Apple sells of Macs in three months - even in their best ever quarter.
 
2013-01-24 12:46:57 AM

Big Merl: I've noticed that the media has been beating on Apple like crazy lately.  It seems like in the last few months it went from "iApple iIs IThe iBest" to "ZOMG!  APPLE IS EVIL!  WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!" Did public sentiment change or did the media decide they could get more revenue this way?

/Android Guy


It happened once their stock started its downward spiral - losing 34% of its value; from $700 in October to now $463 in tonight's trading. When you're the golden child, Wall Street doesn't like seeing perfectly flat profits and downgraded estimates for future earnings.

/sell Mortimer, sell!
 
2013-01-24 12:50:20 AM

gingerjet: almandot: And if apple was really worried about this perception aren't they leading the whole overseas money game where they could've brought back enough cash to meet the goals if they felt like it?

So you are saying that the money they make overseas is somewhat super secret and not recorded somewhere ... say ... on an earnings statement?


Clearly not an expert, but yeah. There were a ton of stories about companies, with apple leading the charge, keeping money away so they didn't have to pay taxes on it until they brought it back into the US and I thought I remembered it saying how they don't have to list their profit from it either until they do, so at any point they could choose to boost their report. That might be for the profit itself and not sales figures, and I might be totally remembering it wrong. But there you have it.
 
2013-01-24 12:55:43 AM

SacriliciousBeerSwiller: It'll bounce a little. Probably. But the losses are justified. Apple is a growth stock and their price was based on street expectations that they failed to meet. There's nothing irrational about the reaction.


With an 11.6 PE and 44.16 EPS, it's far more than just a "growth" stock. For long term value holders the quarterly report just verified that Apple is an astonishingly financially healthy company that is almost unparalleled in the practice of sucking up huge swaths of revenue . For short term traders .... well, tards keep on tardin'.
 
2013-01-24 01:18:23 AM

InmanRoshi: For short term traders .... well, tards keep on tardin'.


Well, this tard has had six successful trades on AAPL out of seven total since the first of the year. If that be "tardin'", so be it. I expect tomorrow's anticipated morning bounce will make it 7 out of 8.
 
2013-01-24 01:41:29 AM
Only made $13B in a quarter?  SELL SELL SELL

This is why capitalism makes no sense.
 
2013-01-24 02:11:01 AM
The first Trillion Dollar Company will not make anything or be staffed by anyone you have ever heard of, its product will be a novel new way of ratfarking the rules and getting away with it.
 
2013-01-24 02:16:36 AM

Stone Meadow: What the fark are the analysts talking about? Evidently investors are smarter than the analysts wrt AAPL...their stock was up $9 today, and it's P/E is still below the Dow 30 average at about 13:1, while Facebook's is at 415:1.


I'll see your 415:1 P/E at Facebook and raise you 3,583.40:1 at Amazon.
 
2013-01-24 02:20:39 AM
img541.imageshack.us
Miss me yet?
 
2013-01-24 02:24:47 AM
img407.imageshack.us

Well, in all fairness... More icons!
 
2013-01-24 03:27:59 AM

space1999: What else is a analyst supposed to do? There's not much point in analyzing something if you aren't going to use that analysis to predict something.


Analysts are supposed to analyze not be amateur hour psychics. There was a time not long ago when earnings estimates didn't exist. Analysts just looked at socks and dried to decide which were fairly valued, which were overvalued and which were undervalued. And sure they'd talk about the future, but they wouldn't try to guess earnings or an exact sales number.
 
2013-01-24 07:30:11 AM

InmanRoshi: SacriliciousBeerSwiller: It'll bounce a little. Probably. But the losses are justified. Apple is a growth stock and their price was based on street expectations that they failed to meet. There's nothing irrational about the reaction.

With an 11.6 PE and 44.16 EPS, it's far more than just a "growth" stock. For long term value holders the quarterly report just verified that Apple is an astonishingly financially healthy company that is almost unparalleled in the practice of sucking up huge swaths of revenue . For short term traders .... well, tards keep on tardin'.


What in the quarterly report assures anyone that these earnings will still be as strong in 5, or even 3 years?

In theory you should have a point, but that's not how this works. If some tard thinks some other tard thinks some other tard thinks earnings won't hold up over time, they'll sell. You can say good riddance, but they helped push the stock up to 700 in the first place.

Now if AAPL paid a regular handsome dividend, this wouldn't be a problem because those earnings would speak for themselves.
 
2013-01-24 07:41:20 AM
Yankees Team Gynecologist:Now if AAPL paid a regular handsome dividend, this wouldn't be a problem because those earnings would speak for themselves.

AAPL pays a $10.60 dividend - roughly %2.15. Probably not large enough to qualify as "handsome" but I suspect AAPL is on the way to becoming a yearly dividend increaser ala MSFT, INTC, etc...
 
2013-01-24 08:02:48 AM

namatad: WhyteRaven74: sprgrss: Methinks the analysts are the ones creating the problems.

Analyst expectations and forecasts are the most toxic things in the financial world.

99.58% of expectations was a failure???
ROFL


When the people betting on you are leveraged 1000 to 1, maybe.
 
2013-01-24 08:27:19 AM
You can only rearrainge the chairs on the titanic so many times before people get wise to the fact that you are on a sinking ship.

I figured it would take another year before people got wise.
 
2013-01-24 09:15:49 AM
If you'll recall, analysts made the same trillion-dollar speculation about Cisco back in the late 1990s before the dotcoms came crashing down. We see where Cisco is now. Still a huge company but nowhere near the $500B valuation in its heyday. The same will happen to Apple.

Investors, analysts and media tend to drink too much of whatever kool-aid is being passed around at the time. In 10-15 years, the same scenario will play out again only it'll be a different company (though given inflation, maybe it'll be easier to achieve $1T valuations so the speculation will be that it'll be the first $1.5T company).

The most interesting part of AAPL's report was the continued growth of their cash reserves. They're sitting on over $130B in cash.
 
2013-01-24 09:34:23 AM

arcas: If you'll recall, analysts made the same trillion-dollar speculation about Cisco back in the late 1990s before the dotcoms came crashing down. We see where Cisco is now. Still a huge company but nowhere near the $500B valuation in its heyday. The same will happen to Apple.


Today, right now, CSCO's P/E is more than 20% higher than AAPl's. CSCO's P/E peaked at around 200.
 
2013-01-24 09:38:04 AM
This thread and the analyst expectations are why I don't invest in Apple. Too much emotion. The market is always irrational in the short term, but to read the personal offense taken by missed expectations all around is a bit much.

I'm more comfortable speculating on Natural Gas than I am investing in Apple. That's how emotional this investment has gotten.
 
2013-01-24 09:50:05 AM

Theaetetus: Pssssssst.... let's come back in the morning and see if it jumps right back.


455.82
-58.18 (-11.32%)
 
2013-01-24 10:21:16 AM

sprgrss: Damn, so Apple earned 54.5 billion instead of the 54.73 billion the analysts expected? Methinks the analysts are the ones creating the problems.


If you don't understand how investing works, maybe you shouldn't comment on investing.

When a company is expected to perform to a certain standard, and it fails to meet that standard, then those investors who planned their investments based on that standard may decide that their are superior investments that fit their goals.

It's not about them not earning enough money, it's about them not performing to prior expectations and, as a result, not meeting the goals of those who invested previously.

The flip side of this is that those people who sell off their shares to put their money elsewhere lower the stock price which may, in turn, make it more attractive to different investors who see potential in the company that is more in line with their goals.

A good example of this would be a simple matter of older versus younger investors. Older investors holding AAPL stock may decide that it's in their best interest at this point to take their profits and move it to safer investments because they don't believe, based on earnings trends, that AAPL will regain its value within a period of time commensurate with their retirement plans.

In turn, this may make the stock more attractive to a younger buyer who may see AAPL's long term potential and lower price as a good fit for their longer range goals.

But, by all means, just keep throwing a blind, raging shiat fit about "analysts" in general even though you have no idea what they do or why their statements have the impacts they have. Gotta have people like you to keep the signal:noise level at 1:11 on investing sites and stories, after all.
 
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