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(Some Guy)   IARPA, the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency, thinks that asking random Internet users to predict world events might possibly be anything other than the worst idea ever   (surveys.inklinghq.com) divider line 27
    More: Unlikely, ARPA, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, internet, researchers, informed consent, internaut  
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765 clicks; posted to Geek » on 22 Jan 2013 at 9:24 AM (1 year ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-01-22 04:52:30 AM  
imagineannie.files.wordpress.com
Great Ideas are Timeless
 
2013-01-22 07:58:27 AM  

mr_a: [imagineannie.files.wordpress.com image 367x245]
Great Ideas are Timeless


"To be, or not to be? Ook, OOK, AAAAK!"
 
2013-01-22 08:10:12 AM  
This is a trap. Anyone who predicts things accurately will end up in a windowless bunker in the woods north of Washington, while insane biologists shoot you full of experimental drugs to make your predictions more accurate and try to prove it isn't all by chance.
Don't even give these people your email address. You'll be on their list.
 
2013-01-22 08:12:17 AM  

rumpelstiltskin: This is a trap. Anyone who predicts things accurately will end up in a windowless bunker in the woods north of Washington, while insane biologists shoot you full of experimental drugs to make your predictions more accurate and try to prove it isn't all by chance.
Don't even give these people your email address. You'll be on their list.


Would you like some Neuroin?
 
2013-01-22 09:16:53 AM  

Cythraul: rumpelstiltskin: This is a trap. Anyone who predicts things accurately will end up in a windowless bunker in the woods north of Washington, while insane biologists shoot you full of experimental drugs to make your predictions more accurate and try to prove it isn't all by chance.
Don't even give these people your email address. You'll be on their list.

Would you like some Neuroin?


Actually,  rumpelstiltskin's worries are... well... reasonably close to mine.  I've worked for one of the members of the IC (though not in the part of it that deals with the IC), and have been told by someone in another member of the IC that given what some of my other work has entailed, oh yes, there most certainly are files on me.  So... if I'm already on their list, do I really want to be even more on their list?

I've actually emailed someone to ask whether me taking the survey would be an even worse idea than them posting it in the first place. ;)
 
2013-01-22 09:31:23 AM  

Cythraul: mr_a: [imagineannie.files.wordpress.com image 367x245]
Great Ideas are Timeless

"To be, or not to be? Ook, OOK, AAAAK!"


"It was the best or times, it was the blurst of times?!" Stupid monkey!
 
2013-01-22 09:32:52 AM  

rumpelstiltskin: This is a trap. Anyone who predicts things accurately will end up in a windowless bunker in the woods north of Washington, while insane biologists shoot you full of experimental drugs to make your predictions more accurate and try to prove it isn't all by chance.
Don't even give these people your email address. You'll be on their list.


No they will not. The bunker has windows.
 
2013-01-22 09:34:00 AM  
This research is based on actual evidence that the collective consciousness of the internet has responded in peculiar ways prior to major world events.

It's based in a lot of swarm theory sort of junk, and is pretty cool.

Now let's see a bunch of individual Farkers try really hard to be clever. Maybe the averaged response will end up being in any way compelling.
 
2013-01-22 09:43:02 AM  

sidcart42: Now let's see a bunch of individual Farkers try really hard to be clever. Maybe the averaged response will end up being in any way compelling.


I wonder if they need any help naming baby zoo animals, or other things Fark is good at?
 
2013-01-22 09:58:37 AM  

sidcart42: This research is based on actual evidence that the collective consciousness of the internet has responded in peculiar ways prior to major world events.

It's based in a lot of swarm theory sort of junk, and is pretty cool.


It is cool. The most important example that comes to mind is the location of a nuclear weapon lost in the Med. A group of random people were asked where they though it sank in the ocean and in a statistically weird thing, an unusually large number of guesses were clustered very close to its actual location.
 
2013-01-22 10:23:40 AM  

sidcart42: This research is based on actual evidence that the collective consciousness of the internet has responded in peculiar ways prior to major world events.


What, exactly, is the rationale? The same Internet gave "Gangnam Style" over 1 billion hits. Now, I rode that wave of pop culture as much as anyone else, so it's not like a humorous music video getting lots of attention strikes me as a collapse of modern culture. My point is, if this sort of research involves any level of filtering out the noise, you're essentially tossing the "collective consciousness of the Internet" itself.
 
2013-01-22 10:40:32 AM  

dragonchild: sidcart42: This research is based on actual evidence that the collective consciousness of the internet has responded in peculiar ways prior to major world events.

What, exactly, is the rationale? The same Internet gave "Gangnam Style" over 1 billion hits. Now, I rode that wave of pop culture as much as anyone else, so it's not like a humorous music video getting lots of attention strikes me as a collapse of modern culture. My point is, if this sort of research involves any level of filtering out the noise, you're essentially tossing the "collective consciousness of the Internet" itself.


Well, we could always try drawing penises on pictures of cats.
 
2013-01-22 11:06:48 AM  
Oh I can tell them of my prediction of my threeway with Jessica Biel and Emma Stone.
 
2013-01-22 11:09:57 AM  

jso2897: Well, we could always try drawing penises on pictures of cats.


I believe that's the thesis paper for next month's research grant.
 
2013-01-22 11:21:09 AM  
Considering that the Internet has been much better at predicting future trends and events than topic experts, it only makes sense.
 
2013-01-22 11:51:00 AM  
Considering people on the internet know that Iran isn't the only other country in the world besides the US, they may have a leg up on US Intelligence.
 
2013-01-22 11:53:15 AM  
"No matter where you go, everyone's connected"

/Present day, PRESENT TIME! hahhahaaa.....
//Not really obscure.
 
Zel
2013-01-22 12:20:11 PM  

Felgraf: "No matter where you go, everyone's connected"

/Present day, PRESENT TIME! hahhahaaa.....
//Not really obscure.


I know nothing is obscure on Fark, but that's pretty darn close.
I can hear his voice, and had to run through more of the intro in my head to find the series title ..
Awesome show about interpersonal connections in the age of the interwebs.
 
2013-01-22 12:23:48 PM  

sidcart42: This research is based on actual evidence that the collective consciousness of the internet has responded in peculiar ways prior to major world events.

It's based in a lot of swarm theory sort of junk, and is pretty cool.

Now let's see a bunch of individual Farkers try really hard to be clever. Maybe the averaged response will end up being in any way compelling.


It won't. Self-selecting biases.
 
2013-01-22 12:25:13 PM  
John Brunner wrote presciently about this back in the 70's.  The idea was mainstream (but not particularly well-known) at the time.

Here's a short writeup

NB: This sentence - "Three hundred million people with access to the integrated North American data-net is a nice big number of potential consultees. " was written no later than 1975.  Anyone who hasn't read Brunner's 'dystopian' novels, should.
 
2013-01-22 02:35:19 PM  
Somebody read Shockwave Rider and implemented a Delphi pool.
Meh, unless it really works.
Keep in mind the caution of the late, lamented philosopher/statistician George Carlin:
Just think of how stupid the average person is, and then realize half of them are even stupider!
 
2013-01-22 03:49:08 PM  
Hidden between the lines is that they can use these studies to determine where the information comes from that gives the collective unconscious of the Internet the predictive knowledge. Then it's only a matter of time until everything we know is a shadow puppet show.
 
2013-01-22 03:50:32 PM  

groppet: Oh I can tell them of my prediction of my threeway with Jessica Biel and Emma Stone.


shiat, cloning technology is on the horizon. How about twin Emma Stone clones?

Emma Stone slays me ^^
 
2013-01-22 04:14:51 PM  
i read the US guv'mint collected together the major comic books writers days after 9/11. their objective was to use these talented imaginations to unearth other ways or means terrorists may next use to strike within our border (now called Homeland for reasons unknown). i thought this was smart of our gov't agencies to do this. sure they have all sorts of think tanks at their disposal. those people are highly educated, and that type of brilliance is much different than the brilliance of imagination.

i never read any more about this get-together. if it really did happen, those that were invited were probably sworn to secrecy. they were probably given really cool badges or something, because what fan boy wouldn't want to be part of some secret Peace Keeper League? that would be farking awesome.

/ the whole Homeland thing creeps me out and smacks of Fourth Reich IMHO
 
2013-01-22 08:37:40 PM  

dbirchall: I've actually emailed someone to ask whether me taking the survey would be an even worse idea than them posting it in the first place.


They replied, "...if you're interested, sign on.  Nothing bad will happen to you as a result."

Of course, they're one of them.
 
2013-01-23 12:23:23 AM  

demaL-demaL-yeH: Somebody read Shockwave Rider and implemented a Delphi pool.
Meh, unless it really works.
Keep in mind the caution of the late, lamented philosopher/statistician George Carlin:
Just think of how stupid the average person is, and then realize half of them are even stupider!


Amusing confusion between average and median is amusing.

/"Wisdom of the Crowd" FTW
 
2013-01-23 12:10:35 PM  

Charles_Nelson_Reilly: demaL-demaL-yeH: Somebody read Shockwave Rider and implemented a Delphi pool.
Meh, unless it really works.
Keep in mind the caution of the late, lamented philosopher/statistician George Carlin:
Just think of how stupid the average person is, and then realize half of them are even stupider!

Amusing confusion between average and median is amusing.

/"Wisdom of the Crowd" FTW


When speaking about an observed standard distribution over a population greater than 300,000,000? Mean = median.

/Now calculate the confidence interval of the population mean given the non-random sample of non-foreign farkers who have posted so far in this thread.
//Don't teach your grandpa to do power calculations.
 
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