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(Daily Kos)   Daily Kos in November 2012: Nate Silver is a brilliant statistician. Daily Kos in January 2013: Nate Silver is a right-wing tool   (dailykos.com) divider line 129
    More: Fail, Daily Kos, right-wing, health education, real dollars, BEA, unemployment compensation, Shelter allowance, welfares  
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7733 clicks; posted to Politics » on 20 Jan 2013 at 11:41 AM (2 years ago)   |  Favorite    |   share:  Share on Twitter share via Email Share on Facebook   more»



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2013-01-20 11:27:58 AM  
Throughout 2010 he was a right wing tool too. Basically, no one likes to hear that they might not be the winning side, and obviously he MUST BE a paid shill for whoever he's projecting favorable outcomes.
 
2013-01-20 11:34:52 AM  
Pendulum swing time
 
2013-01-20 11:37:50 AM  
That governmentspending.com site does look pretty hinkey.

Beyond that, lighten up, Kosguy.
 
2013-01-20 11:41:42 AM  
Whine more.
 
2013-01-20 11:44:46 AM  
Nate Silver is a very competent statistician, not a brilliant one. What he is brilliant at is making statistics accessible to the public.
 
2013-01-20 11:45:35 AM  
I can't even tell what he's complaining about.
 
2013-01-20 11:46:16 AM  
Oh yes. It criticizes his data sourcing, and provides evidence for the criticism.

OUTRAGE.
 
2013-01-20 11:47:57 AM  
Liberals praise Nate Silver for his accuracy and well thought-out analysis: "LOL MESSIAH YOU'D NEVER ADMIT IF HE WAS DOING SOMETHING WRONG! HARMONIZE THE QUIRKS!"

Liberals chastise Nate Silver for poor analysis: "LOL NICE MESSIAH YOU GOT THERE, LIBS!!!"

One of the many, many reasons that the conservative opinion is completely without value.
 
2013-01-20 11:48:32 AM  

PanicMan: I can't even tell what he's complaining about.


PanicMan: I can't even tell what he's complaining about.


Kibbler: Oh yes. It criticizes his data sourcing, and provides evidence for the criticism.

OUTRAGE.


that.
 
2013-01-20 11:50:41 AM  

PanicMan: I can't even tell what he's complaining about.


He's complaining that Nate Silver's numbers are coming from a tea party blog instead of using official government numbers. Seems like fair criticism to me.
 
2013-01-20 11:51:01 AM  
pixel.nymag.com

Behold, your new messiah.
 
2013-01-20 11:53:50 AM  
Garbage in, garbage out.
 
2013-01-20 11:54:34 AM  
I don't know what this means for the integrity of the data. This sentence doesn't even begin to explain what is wrong with the data (FTA): As I was looking through the source site usgovernmentspending.com I stumbled on a link specifically for Tea Party people, probably to reload the old data cannon.
 
2013-01-20 11:55:06 AM  

wotthefark: [pixel.nymag.com image 560x375]

Behold, your new messiah.


That sketch is particularly charitable.
 
2013-01-20 11:55:52 AM  

hillbillypharmacist: wotthefark: [pixel.nymag.com image 560x375]

Behold, your new messiah.

That sketch is particularly charitable.


He looks almost human
 
2013-01-20 11:58:02 AM  
As the article details, the data is coming from a non-government source and the graphs are 'weirdly' constructed, to be polite.

Dude's slipping.
 
2013-01-20 11:58:17 AM  
Actually I thought Nate's chart was pretty dumb because it doesn't take into account the revenue for Social Security and Medicare?

Are people really arguing that we should get rid of social security and medicare and still keep the specific taxes for it?

They both have special taxes to fund it so pretending that the spending of those programs directly add to the US debt/defit is disingenuous because they don't cont the money they specifically bring in. It should be looked at REVENUE - SPENDING but if you do that, those programs look ok, and that's why Republicans pretend that they are part of the general budget but they are not.
They are trying to make our middle class Social Security and Medicare tax payments fund cutting taxes for the rich. Stop playing their BS game!!!
 
2013-01-20 11:58:44 AM  
Usually I think the DailyKos folks get carried away but they have a legitimate criticism here.


UsGovernmentspending.com is basically one guy with a blog who takes economic and budgetary data and then twists it to suit his agenda (something of a Tea Party/Paultard kind of variety). I don't take that site seriously.

/Made the mistake of clicking that website once
 
2013-01-20 12:00:20 PM  

wotthefark: [pixel.nymag.com image 560x375]

Behold, your new messiah.


That's not Russell Wilson.
 
2013-01-20 12:01:39 PM  
t3.gstatic.com
I miss this guy.
 
2013-01-20 12:02:38 PM  
Wow, is Fark still taking the blog posts from KoS as a blanket representation of the entire website?
 
2013-01-20 12:06:46 PM  
At no point is he being accused of being right wing.
 
2013-01-20 12:06:55 PM  
This argument makes no sense and it's sad to see Nate play their BS game.

Social Security and Medicare have their own taxes and a not part of the general budget. With those taxes currently they pretty much pay for themselves. In fact SS runs a surplus pretty often.


This is the BS game they are playing. Lets say I spend $50 a week going out to eat, I also buy into poker games for $100 but every time I play I get back $90 to $110. He is saying OMG!!! We are spending $100 on poker, we can't afford that. But that only looks at one side of the equation and completely ignores the revenue that is specific to playing poker. No on in their right mind would call that "spending $100" when you would net lose at most $10. But this is the game the right is playing with entitlements and Nate foolishly bought into.
 
2013-01-20 12:08:39 PM  

Rapmaster2000: [t3.gstatic.com image 263x192]
I miss this guy.


Me too. It really bummed me out when he got sucked into that tube in Wonka's factory.
 
2013-01-20 12:11:00 PM  
Do you see it? He put unemployment compensation in the welfare total. I have never seen it categorized that way before. In this grouping, unemployment insurance makes up 25% of his welfare figure. That just seems kind of slimy to me."


Notice how he says its slimy but he doesnt say its wrong. Since Obama got elected, all Democrats in Congress have gravitated toward the lowest form of politician: they change the name of everything and lie to avoid the stigma, they wont vote on budget so they can claim that they arent responsible for the spending.

Ppl who continue to collect assistance for being unemployed are on Welfare.

Obama wants to make sure that everyone's getting checks from money thats borrowed or printed (soon to be the same thing : go ahead and mint 2 trillion dollar coins). So theyll keep voting for the party throwing the money party.

Party's gonna end, lets just hope it ends the party and not the government as we know it.
 
2013-01-20 12:13:47 PM  

Animatronik: Notice how he says its slimy but he doesnt say its wrong. Since Obama got elected, all Democrats in Congress have gravitated toward the lowest form of politician: they change the name of everything and lie to avoid the stigma, they wont vote on budget so they can claim that they arent responsible for the spending.


Yep only Democrats do this...the Republicans would never stoop to anything like that amiright?
 
2013-01-20 12:14:21 PM  

Animatronik: Do you see it? He put unemployment compensation in the welfare total. I have never seen it categorized that way before. In this grouping, unemployment insurance makes up 25% of his welfare figure. That just seems kind of slimy to me."


Notice how he says its slimy but he doesnt say its wrong. Since Obama got elected, all Democrats in Congress have gravitated toward the lowest form of politician: they change the name of everything and lie to avoid the stigma, they wont vote on budget so they can claim that they arent responsible for the spending.

Ppl who continue to collect assistance for being unemployed are on Welfare.

Obama wants to make sure that everyone's getting checks from money thats borrowed or printed (soon to be the same thing : go ahead and mint 2 trillion dollar coins). So theyll keep voting for the party throwing the money party.

Party's gonna end, lets just hope it ends the party and not the government as we know it.


Everyone panic?
 
2013-01-20 12:15:04 PM  

Animatronik: Obama wants to make sure that everyone's getting checks from money thats borrowed or printed (soon to be the same thing : go ahead and mint 2 trillion dollar coins). So theyll keep voting for the party throwing the money party.


But enough about Defense Contractors...
 
2013-01-20 12:16:01 PM  

Animatronik: Obama wants to make sure that everyone's getting checks from money thats borrowed or printed (soon to be the same thing : go ahead and mint 2 trillion dollar coins). So theyll keep voting for the party throwing the money party.


Drink that Derp-Aid pretty deeply, don't you?
 
2013-01-20 12:16:04 PM  
The title of the Kos piece is "Nate Silver's data sourcing leaves me speechless." The author never says "Nate Silver is a right wing tool." Submitter deserves the FAIL tag.
 
2013-01-20 12:17:26 PM  

YodaTuna: PanicMan: I can't even tell what he's complaining about.

He's complaining that Nate Silver's numbers are coming from a tea party blog instead of using official government numbers. Seems like fair criticism to me.


Are the numbers wrong? Also, the graph the author is complaining about isn't in the 538 article.
 
2013-01-20 12:21:54 PM  

unlikely: Throughout 2010 he was a right wing tool too. Basically, no one likes to hear that they might not be the winning side, and obviously he MUST BE a paid shill for whoever he's projecting favorable outcomes.


Aaaaaaaaand we're done.
 
2013-01-20 12:22:11 PM  

Mrtraveler01: Usually I think the DailyKos folks get carried away but they have a legitimate criticism here.


UsGovernmentspending.com is basically one guy with a blog who takes economic and budgetary data and then twists it to suit his agenda (something of a Tea Party/Paultard kind of variety). I don't take that site seriously.

/Made the mistake of clicking that website once


... um, it's very clearly not a blog, and the sources used are the actual government reports as listed, you can click through and verify them if you want.

I mean, you can complain about Nate's analysis if you want, but all that site is, really, is literally what the US government is reporting, repackaged to be more amenable to making charts. Whether the guy has an agenda or not is pretty immaterial, since the vast majority of the site is raw data.

//There are artefacts in the data, like the war spending missing in 2006-2007, but these are artefacts of the government's actual reporting, not the site.
 
2013-01-20 12:23:20 PM  

WayToBlue: At no point is he being accused of being right wing.


Conservatives push the notion that liberals worship at the altar of Nate Silver because his predictions have been for two Obama victories, not because of the accuracy of those predictions. So when he is criticized by liberals for using bunk sources, conservatives interpret it as an attack on Nate Silver's status as the liberal messiah that they themselves imposed on him.

Untangling conservative DERP can be tricky.
 
2013-01-20 12:25:14 PM  
Meh, DailyKos was better when it was DailyArmando.
 
2013-01-20 12:26:27 PM  

Mrtraveler01: Animatronik: Notice how he says its slimy but he doesnt say its wrong. Since Obama got elected, all Democrats in Congress have gravitated toward the lowest form of politician: they change the name of everything and lie to avoid the stigma, they wont vote on budget so they can claim that they arent responsible for the spending.

Yep only Democrats do this...the Republicans would never stoop to anything like that amiright?


They're both bad, so vote Democrat.

I'm all for cutting defense. Lets cut some other things while we're at it. I'm sure Obama's a nice guy in person, but hes fighting the wrong battle. We cant continue bankrupting the government in order to entrench a class of dependent voters. The numbers say that entitlements and handouts are already more than 2/3 of the problem and will soon eat us alive.
 
2013-01-20 12:26:47 PM  
When 'simple serf' is able to predict two presidential elections with the accuracy displayed by Nate Silver, I'll start paying attention.
 
2013-01-20 12:27:13 PM  

Mrtraveler01: Animatronik: Notice how he says its slimy but he doesnt say its wrong. Since Obama got elected, all Democrats in Congress have gravitated toward the lowest form of politician: they change the name of everything and lie to avoid the stigma, they wont vote on budget so they can claim that they arent responsible for the spending.

Yep only Democrats do this...the Republicans would never stoop to anything like that amiright?


BSABSVD?

/Not that I agree with him.
//He seems kind of crazy.
 
2013-01-20 12:31:25 PM  

WayToBlue: At no point is he being accused of being right wing.


Misleading headline? On Fark? WHAT IS THIS BULLshiat?
 
2013-01-20 12:32:49 PM  

Animatronik: The numbers say that entitlements and handouts are already more than 2/3 of the problem and will soon eat us alive.


No they don't. 2/3 of the "spending" problem was caused by tax cuts and 2 wars.
 
2013-01-20 12:34:31 PM  

cameroncrazy1984: Animatronik: The numbers say that entitlements and handouts are already more than 2/3 of the problem and will soon eat us alive.

No they don't. 2/3 of the "spending" problem was caused by tax cuts and 2 wars.


At least we can all agree on one thing: it appears that we may be farked
 
2013-01-20 12:34:47 PM  

cameroncrazy1984: Animatronik: The numbers say that entitlements and handouts are already more than 2/3 of the problem and will soon eat us alive.

No they don't. 2/3 of the "spending" problem was caused by tax cuts and 2 wars.


And since most of the tax cuts are gone, we're about to see a 12% cut in spending across the board, the two wars are all but done but the crying...
 
2013-01-20 12:36:30 PM  
Everyone knows that our fiscal crisis won't be fixed until we privatize Medicare and SS.
 
2013-01-20 12:40:26 PM  
This headline exemplifies a very interesting facet of the conservative mind: The all-or-nothing, black-or-white, "you're either with us or you're against us" kind of thinking that finds it inconceivable that you could agree with someone on one issue but criticize them for something else. This is why a Republican politician who even hints at compromise is branded a RINO and subject to excommunication.
 
2013-01-20 12:42:47 PM  
as a ph.d. biostatistician i can only say there's no such thing as a brilliant statistician.
 
2013-01-20 12:44:09 PM  
www.upthehammers.co.uk
 
2013-01-20 12:45:25 PM  

t3knomanser: Nate Silver is a very competent statistician, not a brilliant one. What he is brilliant at is making statistics accessible to the public.


This.  And as long as he sticks to his knitting, he is awesome.  I just read this latest analysis, and Nate is right on the money, as usual.  And I ain't no TeaNut.
 
2013-01-20 12:46:06 PM  

revrendjim: something else. This is why a Republican politician who even hints at compromise is branded a RINO and subject to excommunication.


are you talking about rmoney or that idaho guy?
 
2013-01-20 12:48:16 PM  

t3knomanser: Nate Silver is a very competent statistician, not a brilliant one. What he is brilliant at is making statistics accessible to the public.


can i see your p-value on that?
 
2013-01-20 12:56:07 PM  

utah dude: as a ph.d. biostatistician i can only say there's no such thing as a brilliant statistician.


Well put. There ARE brilliant statistic manipulators though. I think Nate Silver falls in the category of "used numbers to say what everyone else already knew".
 
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